|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-110||53 h 36 m||Show|
50* SUPER BOWL 53 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Rams +3)
I just think because of the Patriots track record we are seeing people do a complete 180 with this team. A lot of people were on the Chiefs to take down the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. I think those same people who bet against New England are backing the Patriots this time around.
It certainly seems to be that way based on the early numbers, as I'm showing close to 65% of the action coming in on New England. If I've learned anything, you don't want to be on that popular side for the big game. In fact, the underdog has covered the Super Bowl in 8 of the last 10. Two of the favorites to cover were the Patriots, but both were a bit lucky. New England won 28-24 back in Super Bowl 49 over Seattle on that interception on the goal line. The other was that crazy comeback against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, where they covered as a 3-point favorite in overtime.
In terms of experience and long-term accomplishments, the edge goes to the Patriots, but as far as this game is concerned, I think the Rams are the better team. Keep in mind we have seen two young offensive minded guys really give New England trouble the last two Super Bowls. Two years ago it was Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and last year it was Doug Pederson with the Eagles. This time it's Sean McVay of the Rams, who I think is the cream of the crop right now in terms of a young offensive minded coaches in the NFL.
I think McVay is going to learn a lot with how New England tried to slow down the Chiefs offense and will focus on the adjustments that Kansas City made in the 2nd half. I just feel really confident that the Rams will be able to score.
What makes me really like Los Angeles is their defense. Most notably their dynamic defensive tackle duo of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. As we saw with the Chiefs, having great outside pass rushers doesn't do ya whole lot against Brady and that dink and dunk Patriots offense. To disrupt that offense you need to be able to bring pressure up the middle. I think they do just that and will make enough plays to get the win. Give me the Rams +3!
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||Top||37-31||Loss||-110||50 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3)
I just think this one comes down to homefield advantage. There’s not a tougher place to play in the NFL, especially in a game of this magnitude, than Arrowhead Stadium.
The noise and energy that the fans provide this Chiefs team at home is undeniable. All you have to do is watch how the Chiefs defense played at home compared to on the road. It’s hard to believe it’s even the same team. They didn’t just hold serve against Andrew Luck and the Colts, they completely shutdown Indianapolis’ offense.
I get it’s a little different going up against the likes of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but the Patriots don’t exactly have the greatest track record on the road. While New England is headed to a ridiculous 8th straight AFC Championship Game, they have only played two of the previous seven on the road and lost both. Patriots are just 3-4 in playoff road games under Brady and haven’t won on the road since 2006.
It’s not just the outcome, but the play on the field. Brady has a 46 to 18 TD-INT ratio in home playoff games and 8-8 ratio on the road. Many of you might recall the last time Brady visited Arrowhead. It was a Monday Night Football game back in Week 4 of 2016, which the Chiefs won 41-14. Brady was just 14 of 23 for 159 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.
On the flip side of this, I don’t think there’s any stopping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense, especially now that they got back wide out Sammy Watkins. It’s no secret that Belichick’s defense is all about taking away a team’s best player, but there’s simply too many weapons to account for and Mahomes has shown he will take whatever the defense gives him. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|01-20-19||Rams +3.5 v. Saints||Top||26-23||Win||100||47 h 42 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/RAMS NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Rams +3.5)
As difficult as it is to bet against the Saints at home, I just think the Rams are the more complete team and I trust their offense a lot more. I also think having already played in the Superdome earlier this season will work to their advantage.
Not to take anything away from the Saints defense and how well they played over the final 3 quarters of their Division Round win against the Eagles, but a lot of that was bad offense by the Eagles. It was like the confidence was zapped from Foles when he threw that early pick and he missed a lot of throws the rest of the way. It didn’t help that Philadelphia couldn’t run the ball. The Eagles attempted just 16 rushes and totaled a mere 49 yards.
I’m not about to sit here and say the Rams are going to run all over this Saints defense the same way they did last week against Dallas, but clearly this team has found something in the 1-2 punch of Gurley and Anderson.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rams defense is way better than they are getting credit for. LA didn’t have the best defensive numbers during the regular season, but I think part of that was a lack of focus, especially in all those games where they jumped out to big leads. A lot of people were talking about how the Rams gave up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and how Dallas would run all over them. The Cowboys ended up with 50 yards and 2.3 yards/carry.
If they can take away the running game, that really only leaves them needing to focus their attention on Michael Thomas. He had 12 of Brees’ 28 completions against the Eagles and more than half the yards (171) that he threw for. Stopping Thomas is easier said than done, but one guy the Rams didn’t have in that first meeting is Aqib Talib. LA’s secondary did a real good job of holding Amari Cooper to just 6 catches for 65 yards last week. Give me the Rams +3.5!
|01-13-19||Eagles +9.5 v. Saints||Top||14-20||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles +9.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Eagles covering the spread in this one. The Saints starting out the season 9-2 ATS, including a streak of 9 straight covers. That run forced the books to inflate their lines and we saw them fail to cover their last 3. I mean they were laying over a touchdown in a meaningless Week 17 game with Brees sitting out for rest.
I'm not huge on teams that coast to the finish and there were some concerning signs with New Orleans down the stretch. Most notably that 3 game stretch where the offense went missing. I just think we could see them come out flat here having not played a meaningful game in more than 2 weeks.
As for the Eagles, they got the feel of one of those teams that is clicking at the right time and there's clearly something special going on with this team and backup quarterback Nick Foles. The biggest thing is how the defense is playing and I think they not only have a great shot at covering, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. Give me the Eagles +9.5!
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||Top||13-31||Win||100||23 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5)
I think because Kansas City kinda limped into the playoffs and their defense has been so bad over the course of the season, few are believing this team has what it takes to win it all. Last I checked the most important position on the field is the quarterback and in my opinion the Chiefs have the best signal caller in the postseason.
It’s not just Mahomes and what he brings to the table, this Kansas City offense is unlike anything we have seen before. The Chiefs eclipsed 25 points in every single game this season. KC has weapons littered all over the field and while the Colts defense has been playing great during their big run, I think they are going to struggle to slow this Chiefs offense down.
I’m also not solid on Indianapolis’ defense being as good as the numbers suggest. Don’t get me wrong, they are greatly improved on that side of the ball. However, during their 10-1 stretch, they haven’t played many top notch signal callers. The run includes games against Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Cody Kessler, Deshaun Watson (twice), Dak Prescott and Eli Manning.
The other huge factor here is where the game is being played. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play for opposing teams, especially in a game of this magnitude. The atmosphere is going to be electric in Kansas City and while this Chiefs offense is built to put up points no matter where the game is played, the defense really feeds off the energy of the stadium. I think because the overall numbers are so bad, people overlook just how drastically better KC’s defense is at home compared to on the road.
The other thing with the Chiefs is they have a top notch pass rush, which really makes it tough on opposing teams if they get behind. KC also is one of the better teams at getting off the field on 3rd down. The Chiefs win here comfortably. Give me Kansas City -5!
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-115||44 h 52 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/RAVENS WILD CARD SUNDAY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I was on the Ravens in that Week 16 win and cover at Los Angeles and will gladly back Baltimore at less than a field goal at home. Given what we saw just a few weeks ago, I’m not sure how the Ravens aren’t a bigger favorite here. I think a lot of people are jumping on the Chargers in this one, mainly because the perception is that even though Baltimore beat them, LA is the better team. I also think there’s a lack of trust for Baltimore’s rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson and a lot of trust for Philip Rivers.
I’ll be the first to admit that I was skeptical of Jackson being able to succeed at the NFL level, especially this early on his career. I thought he would need at least one season on the bench to kind of learn the NFL game and develop as a pro passer. Turns out that while he still has a long way to go as thrower, he’s more than ready to impact the NFL game with his legs. Jackson has rushed for 695 yards and accounted for 45 first downs with his legs (best on the team by 8). Since they went with him as the starter, Baltimore has transformed into an elite rushing team. In the 7 games with him as the starter, they are averaging 229.9 ypg. That would be unheard of if they did that for an entire season.
What this incredible rushing attack has allowed the Ravens to do with Jackson, is control the clock and keep one of the league’s best defenses fresh. It’s a recipe that can work. Baltimore not only beat the Chargers in LA, but they were a couple 4th down conversions by the Chiefs away from a win at Arrowhead.
The big downside is that this style of play will often lead to a lot of close games. I just think that Jackson and the Ravens offense will be able to generate enough points and more than anything, play keep away from Rivers and that Chargers offense. Rivers is known to press the issue when he’s frustrated and he threw 2 picks against this Baltimore defense in Week 15. No team is better at disguising their defense than the Ravens. I’m banking on Rivers making a mistake or two here. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
|01-05-19||Seahawks v. Cowboys -1||Top||22-24||Win||100||27 h 4 m||Show|
50* COWBOYS/SEAHAWKS WILD CARD SATURDAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -1)
I just think the price here is too good to pass up with Dallas. The Cowboys have a much bigger homefield advantage than what we are seeing with this line. Dallas is 7-1 on their home field, where they are outscoring opponents on average by 6.5 points/game. Seattle’s not a horrible road team, but they were just 3-4 in true road games and their 3 road wins were all against non playoff teams in the Cardinals, Panthers and Lions. Two of those they won on last second field goals.
It’s no secret that these two teams are built on their running game. For me it’s not so much who has the better rushing attack, but which of these two defenses are better equipped to defend it. That’s where I think we see the big edge here for the Cowboys.
Dallas’ defense has been outstanding against run. They finished 5th in the NFL, giving up just 3.8 yards/carry and 5th in run defense, allowing 94.6 ypg. Keep in mind this was with the Cowboys giving up 178 rushing yards in a game they didn’t show up to play in Week 15 (game really didn’t matter in terms of winning division. They had basically won the NFC East the week before with a 29-23 win over the Eagles). They also allowed 143 rushing yards in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Giants (win or lose, Dallas was going to be the No. 4 seed).
On the flip side of this, while Seattle ranks a respectable 13th in run defense, giving up 113.2 ypg, they are 30th in the NFL, giving up 4.9 yards/carry. Only the Chiefs (5.0 ypc) and Rams (5.1 ypc) were worse.
You can also look back at the Week 3 matchup. Dallas rushed for 166 yards on 19 attempts (8.7 yards/carry) and Seattle had just 113 yards on 39 attempts (2.9 yards/carry). The big difference was at that time Dak Prescott didn’t have Amari Cooper to throw the ball. Tight end Geoff Swaim led the team with 5 receptions for 47 yards. Despite only playing in 9 games, Cooper finished as the team’s No. 1 receiver with 725 yards and also led the team with 6 receiving touchdowns.
I think this time around the Cowboys will be able to put some points on the board and really let their defense feed off the energy of the home fans. Dallas is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that is giving up 350 or more yards/game (Seattle allows 353 ypg). Seattle is also a team that has been overvalued quite a bit in recent playoff games. Seahawks are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. Give me the Cowboys -1!
|12-30-18||Falcons v. Bucs +2||Top||34-32||Push||0||24 h 27 m||Show|
50* NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR (Bucs +2)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Tampa Bay as a home dog. I think there's no reason the Bucs should be a dog at home against the Falcons. While Tampa Bay comes in having lost 3 straight, one was a defeat at home to the Saints. The other two were on the road against likely division winners in Baltimore and Dallas (both 1-score games).
I'm not sold on Jameis Winston long-term, but he's been playing much better of late. The Bucs have turned it over just 5 times in their last 5 games after a ridiculous 29 turnovers in their previous 9 games. I also think a lot of people aren't aware of how much better this Tampa Bay defense has been playing since they switch defensive coordinators. I also think people would be shocked to hear that the Bucs haven't allowed a 300-yard passer in 10 straight games. In their last 7 they have held 6 under 200 yards.
Atlanta's offense has not been up to par in the 2nd half of the season. While they scored 40 a couple weeks ago against the Cardinals, that's the only game in their last 7 that they have scored more than 24 and the 24 they put up last week was more of the Panthers not having Newton and not coming to play after getting knocked out of the playoff race. Give me the Bucs +2!
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks||Top||31-38||Loss||-118||31 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs PK)
As difficult as last week’s loss to the Chargers was, I think it’s a gift to lay less than a field goal with the Chiefs against any team in the league and I'm just going to play the money line in this one. Kansas City is 11-3 and their losses have come by a combined 7-points against 3 of the best teams in the league in the Patriots, Rams and Chargers.
It’s not the offense that has let this team down in their defeats, as the Chiefs have scored a ridiculous 119 points in their 3 losses (39.7 ppg). They could just as easily won all 3 of those games and be sitting at 15-0. No way would they be only a 2.5-point favorite if that was the case.
Give Philip Rivers and the Chargers credit for making the plays they did, but so much had to go right for them to get that win. I loved how the Chiefs were able to get a ton of pressure on Rivers and had Eric Berry not been on a pitch count (didn’t play the 2nd half), they likely win that game. Berry was a legit difference maker in the 1st half and is expected to play a bigger role in this game.
I think the Chiefs are going to make life very difficult on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense in this one and I just don’t see Seattle being able to score enough to keep this game close. Patrick Mahomes is playing out of his mind right now and my money is on him delivering a big time performance when the Chiefs need it the most.
It’s no secret Seattle wants to run the football. Andy Reid is 15-5 in the second half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing yards/game as a head coach in the NFL. Chiefs are also 11-3 ATS under Reid in road games after scoring 25 or more in each of their last 2 and 9-1 ATS last 10 after playing their previous 2 on the road.
I also want to point out that while a win here for Seattle would be huge, they can lose and still secure a Wild Card spot with a win at home over the Cardinals in Week 17. Give me the Chiefs!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers OVER 50||Top||12-9||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50)
For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.
A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.
This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.
As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.
I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-16-18||Raiders v. Bengals -3||Top||16-30||Win||100||17 h 15 m||Show|
50* NFL LATE SEASON GAME OF THE YEAR (Bengals -3)
I believe the books have completely missed the mark here. I get the Bengals come in having lost 5 straight and have lost Andy Dalton, but there's no way they shouldn't be closer to a touchdown favorite against the Raiders.
Oakland threw in the towel on the 2018 season before the season even started. Sure they got up the last two weeks at home agains the Chiefs and Steelers. They hung around with KC and upset Pittsburgh. I think it sets up a huge flat spot against another struggling team, especially with a big rivalry game at home against the Broncos next week. Might be the last time those two teams face off in Oakland and potentially the game the Raiders will play in Oakland.
Cincinnati isn't getting near enough credit for how well they played last week at the Chargers. They lost 26-21 and had their chances to pull off the upset. I've liked what I've seen out of quarterback Jeff Driskel and a talented Bengals defensive front should have their way with a banged up Raiders offensive line. Give me Cincinnati -3!
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||Top||17-16||Win||100||26 h 53 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns +3)
I just think the injuries have become too much for Denver to overcome. On offense they playing a bunch of inexperienced receivers after trading away Demaryius Thomas and then losing Emmanuel Sanders to a season ending injury in their Week 13 win over the Bengals. Against the 49ers, Case Keenum completed 24 of 42 attempts for just 186 yards, which comes out to a dreadful 4.4 yards/attempt.
I think not having anyone to really respect in the passing game allowed the 49ers to really load up agains the run and not let Philip Lindsay beat them. San Francisco held Lindsay to just 30 yards on 14 attempts. Lindsay had 346 yards and 5 scores over the previous 3 games. Cleveland just held a pretty good Panthers rushing attack to 96 yards, so they can definitely keep Lindsay in check.
On the flip side of this, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen out of Browns’ rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. If it wasn’t for some costly turnovers in that 29-13 loss at Houston (outgained Texans 428-384), Cleveland could easily be riding a 4-game winning streak. I also think this is a completely different and much better team since they got rid of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley.
Maybe the most important thing is the Browns are playing with a ton of confidence and if you look at the media coverage on this team, players actually think they got a chance at sneaking into the playoffs, whether it be as a Wild Card or somehow winning the AFC North. Regardless of how slim their chances really are, that’s the mentality you want to see from a team in this spot. I definitely don’t get that same vibe from the Broncos. It’s almost as if the loss the 49ers sucked the life out of this team.
It’s also worth pointing out that Denver is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, 4-9 ATS last 13 vs a team with a losing record, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of December, 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring less than 15 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a game where they didn’t cover the number. Give me the Browns +3!
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5||Top||29-28||Loss||-100||11 h 51 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City as a short home favorite. Not only have the Chiefs dominated this series with 9 straight wins over the Chargers, but they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring teams by 14.0 ppg.
I just think the Chargers are getting a lot of love because of there being just a 1-game difference in the record for these two teams. Prior to their 3-point win over the Ravens, all 5 of the Chiefs previous home wins had come by at least a touchdown and they really dominated in all of those games.
I just think the percentages here are greatly in favor of Kansas City winning this game. Not only is it going to be an electric atmosphere at Arrowhead for a prime time game, but I can’t stress enough how difficult it is for the road team in these Thursday games. It’s really hard on the defenses and I think that’s where it really plays into the Chiefs favor, as they got arguably the most explosive offensive in the league right now.
As for the Chiefs defense, they are expected to get back the heart and soul of that unit in former All-Pro safety Eric Berry. It’s completely up in the air just how good Berry will be, as he hasn’t seen the field since Week 1 of last season, but I can assure you the energy in the stadium will be different with him on the field.
Another huge factor here is how banged up the Chargers are at running back. Melvin Gordon and backup Austin Ekeler are both doubtful. With the way Kansas City can get after the quarterback with their pass rush, you got no chance against that defense if you don’t make them respect the run. I know the run defense for KC isn’t great, but that’s definitely one area where Berry figures to have a huge impact right away.
It’s also worth pointing out that Philip Rivers has simply not played well against the Chiefs. He’s 2-9 as a starter against Kansas City (3-8 ATS) and the numbers are down across the board. He actually had one of his better games against the Chiefs in Week 1, as he threw for 424 yards and 3 scores. However, the Chargers offense only had 12 points going into the 4th quarter.
Another thing that I think is worth mentioning, is KC beat the Chargers in Week 1 without a big game from Kareem Hunt, who had just 49 yards rushing and didn’t catch a pass. Mahomes did as he pleased, throwing for 256 and 4 touchdowns. Expect more of the same from the likely league MVP. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-09-18||Giants -3 v. Redskins||Top||40-16||Win||103||21 h 14 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Giants -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants laying just a field goal on the road against the Mark Sanchez led Redskins. It wasn’t that long ago Washington was on top the NFC East and thinking playoffs. Now that they have lost their top two quarterbacks, they know how this thing is going to end.
I’m also liking what I’ve seen from New York of late. Had the Giants not blown that 19-3 lead against the Eagles a couple weeks ago, they would be riding a 4-game winning streak and still very much alive at 5-7. I know the argument now is there’s nothing for them to play for, but I see no reason for them to not keep fighting and there’s definitely motivation here to get revenge against division rival.
The biggest thing for me is that I have a really hard time seeing that Redskins offense doing a whole lot with Sanchez under center. He attempted 21 passes and while he completed 13, it was for just 100 yards (4.8 yards/attempt). He also threw an interception and was sacked twice. Washington’s offense as a whole had just 235 yards and 90 of those came on one run by Adrian Peterson. Sanchez has made 6 starts the last 3 seasons and his team is both 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS, and have been outscored by nearly 10.7 ppg.
It’s also worth noting that the Redskins defense has really struggled of late. In their last 3 games they are giving up 27.3 ppg and 386.7 ypg. Their weakness defensively this season has been defending the pass, but they are struggling against the run as well. They have allowed at least 130 rushing yards in each of their last 3. Look for rookie Saquon Barkley to have a big game and that should open up things for Eli Manning and OBJ in the passing game.
Giants have covered 5 straight road games and are a good team to back away from home when they are covering. New York is 34-16 ATS in their last 50 road games when they come in having covered 2 or more games in a row. Redskins are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football last week and are a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing the Sunday after a MNF contest. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC East. Give me the Giants -3!
|12-02-18||Browns +6 v. Texans||Top||13-29||Loss||-115||21 h 59 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Browns +6)
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/COWBOYS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Cowboys +8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Dallas as an 8-point dog. As difficult as it can be to bet into a streak like the one the Saints are riding with 8 straight covers, you know there’s value going against a streak like that, as the public won’t be able to help themselves. At this point, it doesn’t matter what the number is, they are taking New Orleans.
They were very fortunate to get a cover last week against the Falcons. They just squeaked by the number, winning by 14 as a 13-point favorite and Atlanta really beat themselves. The Falcons had 4 turnovers, two in the red-zone and actually outgained the Saints 366-312.
That’s now 9 forced turnovers in the Saints last 3 games, but now they go up against a Cowboys team that really values the football. Dallas hasn’t turned it over in 3 straight games. A big reason for that is they have got Elliott and the running game going. In their last 3 games the Cowboys are averaging 149.7 rushing yards per game and in this stretch have put up 26.7 ppg and 379 ypg. Quite a big difference from the 21.3 ppg and 334 ypg they average for the season as a whole.
I believe the addition of Cooper is definitely a factor that has helped the running game. Prior to adding him there really wasn’t anyone the defenses had to be worried about in the passing game. I mean the guy has played 4 games and is third on the team with 349 receiving yards and his 3 TD catches are tops on the roster.
I think with Dallas’ ability to run the football and keep the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands, it only increases the likelihood that the Cowboys can keep this within a touchdown. I actually think Dallas has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Chances are the Saints are going to slip up at least one more time and the Cowboys have won 4 of 5 on their home field.
We also see that New Orleans is a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 road games after 3 straight games scoring 25 or more points, while Dallas is 35-19 ATS last 54 home games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Give me the Cowboys +8!
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-119||91 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL -NFC- GAME OF THE YEAR (Panthers -3)
We have a talented Carolina team coming off back-to-back road losses laying a short number at home in a game we know they are going to give max effort.
Not to mention the Panthers have been outstanding at home this season. Perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Seattle comes in at 5-5 and are a respectable 3-3 on the road, but one was a neutral site game against the Raiders and the other two were at Detroit and Arizona, two of the bottom feeders in the NFC.
I just think Seattle is getting a little too much love from those two close losses to the Rams, as well as the fact that they are fresh off that win at home against Green Bay in a prime time matchup. One thing you have to keep in mind with the victory against the Packers is just how big an advantage the home team has in those Thursday games and Green Bay was running on fumes.
The Packers went to LA in Week 8 to face the Rams, then traveled across the country to take on New England in Week 9. They hosted the Dolphins and had to turn right back around and go out west for that game on 3 days rest. I think if Seattle was as good as this line is suggesting, they would have won by a lot more in that spot.
Another thing with Seattle, is this is not an ideal matchup for them. The Seahawks have really transformed their running game this year. They are 1st in the NFL at 154.3 ypg, compared to 27th in passing (219.2 ypg). Carolina has the 8th ranked run defense, giving up just 98.5 ypg and it's even more stingy at home, where they are only giving up 79 ypg.
On the flip side of this, the Panthers are also built on their running game, as they come in 7th in the league at 130.2 ypg. Seattle is 17th against the run, allowing 111.5 ypg and they are giving up a healthy 4.9 yards/carry.
I also want to point out I don't think this Seahawks defense is as good as the numbers say they are. I think they are sugar-coated a bit from a pretty favorable schedule outside of their two games against the Rams.
Panthers are 30-19 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera in home games against fellow NFC opponents. They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivera when coming off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread and 9-1 ATS under Rivera when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. Give me Carolina -3!
|11-22-18||Bears -2.5 v. Lions||Top||23-16||Win||100||14 h 10 m||Show|
50* LIONS/BEARS NFL THANKSGIVING TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago to win by at least a field goal. I'm well aware that Trubisky isn't likely to play, but that's why the Bears went out and signed a guy like Chase Daniel, who was with Nagy in KC and will be very comfortable in this offense. Might I add an offense that I think has been very underrated this year, as everyone wants to talk about the defense. Speaking of the defense, I think that's where Chicago will win this game. Detroit's offense hasn't been the same since they traded away Golden Tate and now they will have to adjust to life without Kerryon Johnson, who is out with a knee injury. Johnson has been a huge part of this offense and finally gave Detroit some balance with the running game. He had 89 total yards and two scores in the Lions 12-point loss to the Bears two weeks ago. Lions also might be without wide out Marvin Jones, who is questionable after not playing last week. Too much pressure on Stafford against that defense for Chicago. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|11-18-18||Texans -3 v. Redskins||Top||23-21||Loss||-100||26 h 40 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Texans -3)
I just don’t think the Redskins are anywhere close to as good as their 6-3 record would lead you to believe. On the flip side of this, I think Houston is flying way under the radar, which isn’t easy to do for a team that’s won 6 straight.
Washington had no business winning last week at Tampa Bay. The Bucs had a 501-286 edge in total yards and 29-15 advantage in first downs. That’s now two straight weeks the defense has been torched, while the offense has struggled. They gave up 38 points and 491 yards to the Falcons at home. This defense also got torched by the Saints for 43 earlier this season.
I get that the Texans aren’t an offensive juggxrnaught, but they did recently put up 42 on the Dolphins and look for new wide out Demaryius Thomas to have a much bigger role now that he’s had two full weeks to learn the playbook.
It’s not so much that I think Houston is going to go into Washington and put up 35+ points. I hope they do. However, it’s more about the matchup between Washington’s offense against the Texans defense.
The Redskins have been decimated with injuries on the offensive line and there needs to be major cause for concern when you score a mere 30 combined points against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Falcons and Bucs. Going into Week 11, Atlanta is giving up 28.2 ppg and Tampa Bay is allowing 32.3. Keep in mind they only had 286 yards against the Bucs.
With that make-shift offensive line they can’t really throw a lot and desperately need to be able to have success running the football to have any shot at moving the ball down the field. Houston has a guy named J.J. Watt, who is without question one of the best defensive linemen to every play the game and leading a Texans defense that ranks 6th against the run (92.9 ypg). It’s not going to be a fun day for Alex Smith and I just don’t see Washington being able to score enough to keep this game competitive. Give me the Texans -3!
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48||Top||24-27||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.
We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.
This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.
The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.
For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.
While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48!
|11-12-18||Giants v. 49ers -3||Top||27-23||Loss||-115||34 h 35 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (49ers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances with San Francisco laying just a field goal. I usually like teams coming off a bye, but the 49ers also have had extra time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football last week.
The other thing for me is I just trust San Francisco a lot more to show up for this game. I get this is prime time and everyone wants to shine on Monday Night Football, but I think the Giants are a complete mess right now and a lot of it has to do with the play of Eli Manning. If he hadn’t won this franchise two Super Bowls, I don’t think there’s anyway he’s still there starting quarterback.
He’s old, slow and just not that great anymore. I think a lot of the New York players are very frustrated with him at quarterback. Eli’s lack of mobility and an offensive line that isn’t playing well are definitely major factors to why this offense is struggling. Last time out Manning was sacked 7 times by the Redskins. The week before the Falcons had 4 sacks.
Last week the Raiders had to pull Derek Carr because they couldn’t keep the 49ers out of their backfield. San Francisco had 8 sacks on the game and are T-7th with 24 on the season. I get the 8 sacks were a direct result of Oakland’s lack of effort, but this definitely seems like a Giants team that’s in a very similar start to the Raiders.
The other big thing here for me is just how impressive Nick Mullens was in his NFL debut. He completed 16 of 22 for 262 yards and 3 scores. I know he’s likely not going to play that well against an NFL defense that is actually trying, but he passed the eye test for me and I’m willing to gamble it wasn’t all luck and that he’ll have another big game at home and keep this Cinderella story going. Give me the 49ers -3!
|11-11-18||Jaguars +3 v. Colts||Top||26-29||Push||0||92 h 4 m||Show|
50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Jags +3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Jacksonville as a dog. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on the Jaguars, who I think are going to come out of their bye and remind everyone just how talented this team is. All you see right now in the media is how big of a disappointment this team has been and the NFL just pulled a prime-time home game away from them (were suppose to host Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, but now it’s an early kickoff).
There’s just some teams that I think play better in the role of the underdog and I fully expect this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I get the frustration some might have with starting quarterback Blake Bortles, but no one needed the bye more than him to reset and get back on track. I think he can do just that against a Colts defense that while improved is not all that great.
Indianapolis comes in ranked a mere 19th against the run (109.9 ypg) and 23rd against the pass (275.6 ypg). They same Raiders offense that managed just 3 points and 242 total yards against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, had 28 points by the end of the 3rd quarter just a few days prior against this Colts defense.
The biggest positive here for Bortles getting back on track is the return of running back Leonard Fournette, whose absence has certainly played a big role in the Jaguars struggles. He’s only played in two games (both wins) and last played in a 31-12 win against the Jets in Week 4. He practiced fully today, so should be good to go for this one.
I’m a big Andrew Luck fan and he’s never going to go down without a fight, but I just think he’s in for a long day against this Jaguars defense. When they are clicking this Jacksonville defense is as good as it gets in the NFL. As bad as things have been going, they still rank 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 313.3 ypg. They also own the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing a mere 206.8 ypg. The Colts are running the ball better this year, but it’s no secret they need the passing game to be working for them to move the football.
I know Indy has the same record as the Jaguars, but their 3 wins are against the Redskins, Bills and Raiders. I guess the win over Washington looks okay because they lead a bad division, but at least with Jacksonville’s win over the Patriots and last year’s success we know how good this team can be when they get it going.
If that team shows up this thing will turn into a blowout, but with that said, I still think they win and cover without playing their best. That’s how big a gap I think there is between these two teams. Give me Jaguars +3.
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-04-18||Rams v. Saints +2.5||Top||35-45||Win||100||31 h 50 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Saints +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints as a home dog to the LA Rams on Sunday. I just think the perception on the Rams is that they are this unbeatable team that, but I'm not buying it. They are a really good team, but there's plenty of teams out there who can knock them off, especially on the road.
New Orleans lost their opener to the Bucs at home and since that shocking defeat that haven't lost again. Not only have they won 6 straight, but they have covered 5 in a row. Rams on the other hand are struggling with these inflated numbers they are having to deal with, as LA has gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5.
I think the key thing here is the game being played in New Orleans, as well as the Rams run defense being able to slow down Gurley, who is the guy that makes that offense go. Saints haven't allowed an opposing team to run for more than 93 yards since Week 1 and are giving up 74 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, Brees will be able to pick apart a pretty suspect Rams secondary. Give me New Orleans +2.5!
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers OVER 45||Top||3-34||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/49ERS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 45)
I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total.
What’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.
The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.
The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.
Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 45!
|10-28-18||Ravens v. Panthers +3||Top||21-36||Win||100||25 h 18 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers +3)
I'll take my chances here with Carolina as a home dog against the Ravens. I just think the price here is too good to pass up on the Panthers, as I think Baltimore has no business being favored on the road.
For whatever reason this Carolina team is getting no love in 2018. The Panthers just rallied from 17 down in the 4th quarter to win at Philadelphia and all anyone wants to talk about is the Eagles giving the game away.
Carolina is 34-11 at home with Cam Newton as their starting quarterback, which includes a perfect 3-0 record at home this year. With Baltimore dealing with all kinds of injuries. I look for Newton and that offense to surprise some people with how well they move the ball.
I also think this is a really tough spot for the Ravens off that crushing loss at home to the Saints, where Justin Tucker missed the extra point late that would have sent the game to OT. That's as gut-wrenching of a loss as you will find and those are the hardest ones to bounce back from, especially on the road. Give me the Panthers +3!
|10-22-18||Giants +4.5 v. Falcons||Top||20-23||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Giants +4.5)
For me, I just think the Falcons are a team the Giants can have a lot of success against. Atlanta’s defense just hasn’t been the same since they lost two of their star players in linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Prior to giving up 29 points to the Bucs last week, the Falcons had allowed at least 37 in each of their previous 3 games, including 40+ to both the Saints and Steelers. Atlanta comes into this game ranked 31st in the league, giving up 32.0 ppg and 30th in total defense, allowing 417.1 ypg.
Opposing teams have been able to do whatever they want against this defense, as the Falcons are 24th against the run (121.3 ypg) and 29th against the pass (295.8 ypg). As much as the Giants offense has struggled, this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Saquon Barkley to put up monster numbers in this one and for Eli Manning to have one of his better games.
Not to make excuses for New York’s 1-5 start, but it certainly hasn’t been the easiest of schedules over their first 6 games. Their 3 home games have all come against playoff teams from last year in the Jaguars, Saints and Eagles and there’s nothing easy about their 3 road games against the Cowboys, Texans and Panthers. The rest of the schedule is very manageable for the Giants and with no team running away with the NFC East, I still think this team has a pulse and are going to lay it all on the line in this one.
I also like the matchup here for the Giants defense. Atlanta’s really struggled to get their run game going and while the numbers aren’t great, New York is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts. In comparison, the Falcons defense is allowing opposing QBs to complete 70.4% of their attempts. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Atlanta’s high-powered passing attack, but I think they can make enough stops and score enough points to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but win it outright.
The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 30 or more points. Giants are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 off a double-digit home loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me the Giants +4.5!
|10-21-18||Bengals v. Chiefs -5.5||Top||10-45||Win||100||33 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home. While both teams are fresh off crushing losses in Week 6, I think the Bengals are going to have the much harder time bouncing back. Cincinnati desperately wanted to beat the Steelers and snap that 5-game losing streak to Pittsburgh. To lose the way they did, where they felt like they had won the game, only magnifies the loss.
As for the Chiefs loss at New England, there just wasn’t the same vibe, even though the way they loss was very similar. That felt more like a win for Kansas City. Not many teams can rally from a 24-9 deficit on the road against the Patriots and take a lead in the 4th quarter. I think that loss really showed this team what they are capable of and they now have the belief that this whole Super Bowl thing is well within their reach.
With all that said, I would have leaned towards taking the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown before last week’s outcome. What a lot of people overlook with Kansas City’s 5-1 start, is they have only played two home games. Both of which they won by double-digits and had commanding leads. They were 35-10 at the half against the 49ers at home in Week 3 and 20-0 on the Jaguars a couple weeks back.
The Chiefs have one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL and Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being a prime time game under the lights. While the offense has proven it can play anywhere at any time, I think playing at home really helps out a defense that has struggled.
Another promising sign for the Chiefs defense is the Bengals’ offense managed just 275 yards at home against a Steelers defense that hasn’t played a whole lot better than Kansas City’s defense early on. I think some of that is just the limitations of Cincinnati’s offense with Andy Dalton and some of it’s the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball.
As for the Chiefs offense, I think we have seen enough of Patrick Mahomes and this talented set of skill players to know they aren’t going anywhere. I think Kansas City is going to easily put up 30+ points on the board and that should be more than enough to cash in a win and cover against a physically and emotionally drained Bengals team. Give me the Chiefs -5.5!
|10-21-18||Panthers v. Eagles -5||Top||21-17||Loss||-110||24 h 19 m||Show|
50* PANTHERS/EAGLES NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Eagles -5)
I'll take my chances laying the points with the Eagles at home in this one. While this will surely be the public side, I think the Eagles are still a little undervalued from their sluggish start to the season. Keep in mind that prior to the easy cover over the Giants, Philadelphia was just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their previous 4 games.
I also think there’s the thought process out there that the win over the Giants is nothing to get excited about with how bad New York has been playing. I’m not saying the Giants are a good football team, but to go on the road and beat a division rival by 21 points is not easy to do, especially on a short week of rest.
I wasn’t all that surprised to see the Eagles get off to a slow start, as there’s not the same sense of urgency to start a new season after winning the Super Bowl the previous year. Plus, Carson Wentz missed the first couple games because of injury and it was going to take some time before he returned to that MVP form. Wentz has got better and better with each start. He was 26 of 36 for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Giants and would have thrown for more if the score wasn’t so lopsided. He’s now thrown for 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his last 3 starts.
I look for Wentz to have a big day here against a Carolina secondary that has struggled when up against a legit passing attack. A couple weeks ago they gave up 382 passing yards to the Giants. The week before that they gave up 330 to Andy Dalton and the Bengals.
I just don’t see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense being able to keep pace. Carolina’s offense is built around their run game and that’s evident by the fact they come in ranked 4th in the league in rushing (139.4 ypg) compared to 26th in passing (222.4 ypg). The Eagles aren’t a defense you want to have to pick up yards against on the ground. Philadelphia is 2nd in the league, giving up just 79.8 ypg and that’s with them allowing 147 to the Giants last week.
More than anything, I just love how the Eagles responded with their backs against the wall and I think that’s something they are going to build off of. I have a really hard time seeing them go back to how they played early on. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and I fully expect them to play like it the rest of the way. Give me the Eagles -5.
|10-15-18||49ers v. Packers -9||Top||30-33||Loss||-110||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Packers -9)
I'll take my chances here laying the big number here with Green Bay at home. I don’t love backing big favorites like this, but when it’s Aaron Rodgers against C.J. Beathard, I’m willing to roll the dice, especially when it’s a prime time matchup and the Packers in desperate need of a win.
It’s really a shame that Garoppolo got hurt, as this 49ers team had a ton of upside. While Kyle Shanahan is going to get the most out of what he has to work with, he’s got his hands tied with Beathard. Some times you can turnovers can be fluky, other times it’s just a result of who a team has under center. Beathard has made 2 starts and thrown 4 interceptions and fumbled 3 times (lost 2 of them).
I just don’t see it getting any better for Beathard against a Green Bay defense that is playing better than people realize. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 313.8 ypg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 2nd in the NFL, allowing just 208.8 ypg.
With the 49ers expected to be without their most explosive back in Matt Breida (averaging 7.5 yards/carry) and three starters on the offensive line questionable to play, San Francisco’s only hope of moving the ball is via the passing game. That’s a problem, as Green Bay is going to be able to unleash their pass rush (49ers allowed 18 sacks) and sit back in coverage and wait for Beathard to make a mistake.
It’s also worth pointing out that Rodgers and the Packers have been a good bet when laying a big number. Green Bay has been a favorite of 6 to 13 points 28 times with Rodgers at quarterback and are 20-8 ATS in those games. Green Bay is also 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Packers -9!
|10-14-18||Ravens -2.5 v. Titans||Top||21-0||Win||100||25 h 17 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Ravens laying less than a field goal on the road. The Titans come into this game with a winning record at 3-2, but they could just as easily be 0-5. All 3 of their wins have come by just 3-points. I just don't see them being able to keep winning games the way they have. Sure, the defense has been playing lights out, but this is one of the worst offenses in the league. Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 294 ypg.They have little to no threat of a passing game after losing star tight end Delanie Walker and haven't been running the ball nearly as effective as they did a year ago. I just don't see the Titans being able to generate enough offense against this Ravens defense, which I think is one of the best in the league. Baltimore comes in ranked 5th against the run (88.4 ypg) and 4th against the pass (215.4 ypg). They also lead the league in scoring defense, allowing just 15.4 ppg.As for the Ravens' offense, I think they bounce back in a big way here after that ugly showing against the Browns. Even after scoring just 9-points against Cleveland, Baltimore is still 11th in the league in scoring at 26.4 ppg. They also sit 11th in the league in total offense, averaging 399.4 ypg.Going back to the Titans defense and it eventually falling off, they could be without one of their best players, as linebacker Wesley Woodyard is questionable with a shoulder injury. Losing Woodyard would be a big blow, as he's tied for the team lead in tackles.Another thing to note about Tennessee's defense, is they have played a bunch of teams that have struggled offensively early, as their opponents for the season are only averaging 19.3 ppg, which makes the 17.2 ppg the Titans are allowing that much less impressive.Baltimore is also a solid 16-6-4 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
|10-08-18||Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5||Top||19-43||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total.
Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh.
Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine.
As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5!
|10-07-18||Falcons v. Steelers -3||Top||17-41||Win||100||19 h 49 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against Atlanta. I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Steelers, who I feel should be laying more than a field goal at home against the Falcons.
Every year there’s a team that just gets unlucky with the injury bug and Atlanta is definitely that team to start out 2018. The Falcons lost two of their best defensive players to season-ending injuries in the same game with free safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones both going down in Week 1. They have since lost starting strong safety Ricardo Allen and left guard Andy Levitre to IR. If that wasn’t bad enough, defensive end Derrick Shelby, defensive end Vic Beasley, corner Justin Bethel and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are all listed as questionable to play against Pittsburgh.
I know the Steelers defense has struggled, but they don’t have to play great here for Pittsburgh to win this game. Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense should have a field day against this Falcons defense, which has given up 70 points in their last two games. On top of that, Atlanta is just 8-20 ATS under head coach Dan Quinn vs teams with a quarterback that is completing 61% or more of their pass attempts.
You also have to keep in mind that Atlanta’s offense is built to play inside a dome. So while they have scored 30+ in each of their last 3 games, all 3 have come at home. Their only road game was a Week 1 matchup at Philadelphia and the offense managed just 12 points and 299 total yards. I’m not saying Pittsburgh’s defense will hold them under 20 points, but I think they make enough stops here to let their offense create some separation.
Let’s also not overlook just how difficult a spot this is for the Falcons emotionally off those two losses to the Saints and Bengals. Those are the toughest kind of defeats to bounce back from, especially on the road against a talented team like Pittsburgh.
As for the Steelers coming off that loss to the Ravens. Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS under Mike Tomlin after an upset loss as a home favorite and going back even further are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division opponent. Give me the Steelers -3!
|10-04-18||Colts v. Patriots -10||Top||24-38||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Patriots -10)
I was originally leaning towards taking the Colts here as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this one the more I like New England to win this thing going away. There's no question the Colts are better than their 1-3 record, but this team is dealing with a massive amount of injuries and that's the absolute last thing you want to be dealing with when facing Brady and Belichick on the road in a short week of preparation.
We know for sure the Colts offense won't have Luck's favorite weapon in T.Y. Hilton, as well as tight end Jack Doyle. Starting running back Marlon Mack is also out. Starting right tackle Joe Haeg is on IR and backup right tackle Denzelle Good is out. Starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo and starting center Ryan Kelly are both questionable. They may also be without Mr. automatic in kickr Adam Vinatieri.
Defensively they have lost two of their top defensive lineman in Hassan Ridgeway and Tyquan Lewis, as well as two of their top corners in Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore. Starting safeties Darius Leonard and Clayton Geathers are both questionable, as is star rookie linebacker Darius Leonard and backup corner Nate Hairston.
New England will have Gronkowski after he was originally listed as questionable and also get back one of Brady's favorite targets in Julian Edelman from a 4-game suspension. I know they kind of righted the ship with last week's win over Miami, but I still feel this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder after the slow start.
Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a win by 14 or more points, 35-14-2 in their last 51 in October and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me New England -10!
|10-01-18||Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos||Top||27-23||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Kansas City as a small road favorite in this one. I don’t love being on the same side as the public, especially in a prime time game, but no way am I betting against this Chiefs team right now. Playing at home definitely gives Denver a shot, but I think they are going to have to play a perfect game to keep this close.
The biggest thing for me is I don’t see the Denver defense being able to slow down this high-powered Kansas City offense. I know it’s just 3 games, but Mahomes play on the field is arguably the best in the league. A big reason for that is the Chiefs have continuity on the offensive line and a plethora of weapons at the skill positions. Not to mention one of the best offensive minds in the game today in head coach Andy Reid.
Denver’s defense gets a lot of respect and I think that’s what is keeping this number lower than what it should be. It’s no secret their best player is Von Miller and when he dominates, the defense usually plays well. The Chiefs have one of the best right tackles in the game in Mitchell Schwartz and he’s typically the guy Miller goes against. Miller hasn’t had a sack in any of the last 3 games against the Chiefs.
It’s also worth pointing out that Mahomes got to face this defense in Week 17 last year and put up big numbers with a bunch of scrubs playing alongside of him. It’s also worth noting Denver’s defense struggled to contain this Chiefs offense back when Alex Smith was the quarterback, as KC has scored at least 27 in every game during their 5-game winning streak in the series.
The other thing that is keeping this number lower than it should be, is the perception of how bad this Chiefs defense is. I know the numbers aren’t great for Kansas City’s defense, but some of that is because of them getting out to such big leads and not wanting to give up the big plays. They have been really good at getting off the field early in the game and when it matters the most in the 4th quarter.
They have also played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, as well as one of the top young guys in the league in Jimmy Garoppolo. Case Keenum is the worst QB they will have faced all season and if that Denver offense struggles just the slightest, this thing could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|09-30-18||Bucs v. Bears -2.5||Top||10-48||Win||100||3 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home. I think there’s a ton of value here with the Bears. While both of these teams have gotten off to impressive starts, I believe the Bears have the better shot of sustaining their early season success the rest of the way.
The addition of Khalil Mack has turned a really good Bears defense into of the elite units in the league. Chicago comes into this game ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run (65.3 ypg) and 11th against the pass (223.7 ypg). They also lead the league in sacks (14) and are tied for 2nd in takeaways (8).
As good as Tampa Bay’s offense has looked in their first 3 games, their numbers have been greatly aided by going up against a couple of sub-par defenses in the Saints and Steelers. The one good defense they played was the Eagles and they only managed 21 points. I think it’s going to be a long day for whoever ends up starting for Tampa Bay, whether it be Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston.
The even bigger key for me is the Bucs defense and how poorly it has played thru the first 3 games of 2018. Tampa Bay is 31st in the NFL, allowing 432.7 ypg. They have been atrocious against the pass, giving up a ridiculous 362.7 yards/game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 102 of the 131 pass attempts agains this defense and are averaging an outstanding 8.3 yards/attempt.
I know it’s been a tough go of things for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, but this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Chicago to easily have it’s best offensive output of the season and it’s not like we need the Bears to put up a huge number to get the win and cover.
Chicago is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 at home versus a team with a winning road record. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|09-27-18||Vikings v. Rams OVER 49||Top||31-38||Win||100||21 h 44 m||Show|
50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest.
It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15.
The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense.
As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards.
The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense.
OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-23-18||Broncos v. Ravens -5||Top||14-27||Win||100||25 h 47 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -5)
|09-20-18||Jets v. Browns OVER 39.5||Top||17-21||Loss||-107||21 h 33 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 39.5 in Thursday's NFL action that has the Browns hosting the Jets. I just feel the number here is a bit of an overreaction to what we just saw. The Jets managed just 12 points in a game with the Dolphins that saw a combined 32 points and went well below the posted total of 43. Cleveland managed just 18 in a game with the Saints that saw 39 points to go well UNDER the total of 51.
While both of these offenses do have their limitations, I think we could see both teams score into the 20s in this one. The biggest factor here is this being a Thursday night game. It’s extremely hard on these NFL players to turn around and play a game with just 3 days of rest and it’s a big reason why we see a lot of high-scoring games in these Thursday games. So much of defense is effort and these guys are playing at less than 100%. Not to mention they also have 3 fewer days to prepare for the opposition.
The other thing for me is that both offenses moved the ball better than their scoring output would suggest. Cleveland had 327 yards against the Saints and the Jets had 362 against the Dolphins.
You also have to look at these two defenses and how they been able to rack up turnovers early on. After forcing 6 turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1, the Browns had 2 more against the Saints. The Jets force 5 in Week 1 on the road against the Lions and 2 more on Sunday against Miami. While turnovers can be drive killers, they can also lead to short fields and quick scores. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least 1 defensive touchdown in this game.
We also have great OVER situations in play involving both teams. OVER is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (Browns) off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog in the month of September. OVER is also 42-16 over the last 10 years when you have a team off an upset loss as a home favorite in September. Give me the OVER 39.5!
|09-17-18||Seahawks v. Bears -4||Top||17-24||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -4)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago at home on Monday Night Football. For me it’s all about the Bears defense. I believe the addition of Mack has taken Chicago from being a good defensive team to a great one. Keep in mind this team quietly finished last year ranked 10th in total defense and 9th in points allowed.
I look for Mack and that dominant front 7 of the Bears to have their way with Seattle’s offensive line, which is once again one of the worst units in the league. The Seahawks couldn’t run the ball against the Broncos (64 yards) and Russell Wilson was sacked 6 times and threw two interceptions. Add in the home field edge with Chicago and this being a prime time game and I look for that defense to feast in this one. Note that Seattle is still without their top wide out in Doug Baldwin.
The other big key here is I don’t think this Seattle defense is very good. They were very fortunate to only give up 27 points to the Broncos. Case Keenum torched the secondary for 329 yards and 3 scores and Denver piled on 470 total yards. Keenum was just 19 of 35 yesterday against the Raiders and Denver was extremely fortunate to win at home 20-19.
You also have to factor in that Seattle will be without both their star linebackers in Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, as well as several other players to injury. The Seahawks are are also historically a slow-starting team under head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games in the first two weeks of the season. Chicago is also an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Give me the Bears -4.
|09-16-18||Texans -3 v. Titans||Top||17-20||Loss||-101||27 h 1 m||Show|
50* NFL 'AFC SOUTH' GAME OF THE YEAR (Texans -3)
I played against the Titans in their Week 1 loss at Miami and I believe that is just the start of what's going to be a really tough year for Tennessee. The Titans were by far the worst team to make the playoffs last year and it simply has them getting way too much respect coming into 2018 and the books are slow to adjust on teams the first couple weeks of the season.
Houston lost their opener at New England, but that's a loss you can live with, as it's never easy going up against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady when they have had weeks to prepare for you. I look for Deshaun Watson and that Houston offense to bounce back in a big way in this one. Miami's Ryan Tannehill picked apart the Titans secondary, going 20 of 28 for 230 yards and 2 scores. The Dolphins don't have near the weapons that Houston does.
The Titans offense wasn't very good and it doesn't figure to be any better against what I think is an elite Texans defense. Marcus Mariota is banged up (expected to split reps with Blaine Gabbert), their best weapon on the outside, Delanie Walker is now on IR and both starting tackles, Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan aren't expected to play. I think this one could get ugly. Give me the Texans -3!
|09-16-18||Chargers -7 v. Bills||Top||31-20||Win||100||27 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chargers -7)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chargers laying just a touchdown against the Bills. I know you can't overreact to much to Week 1, but I'm pretty confident that Buffalo is the worst team in the league. While I would have loved for the Bills to keep trotting out the horrible Nathan Peterman, rookie Josh Allen isn't that big of an upgrade. He's got some raw talent, but is not ready for the NFL game.
I think we got an even better idea of just how bad this Bills team is after watching the Ravens lose to the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Baltimore's defense gave up 21 points in the first 17 minutes of the game after only allowing 3 points and 153 total yards in their 47-3 blowout win over the Bills in Week 1.
The Chargers lost in a shootout to KC at home in Week 1, but they outgained the Chiefs 541 to 362. Philip Rivers threw for 424 yards and 3 scores and would have topped 500 yards if it wasn't for his receives dropping a couple of easy catches downfield. This team is tired of starting slow and will be out to lay it on the Bills and I just don't see Buffalo being able to keep this close with how limited they are offensively. Give me Los Angeles -7!
|09-09-18||Redskins v. Cardinals -1||Top||24-6||Loss||-112||29 h 43 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals -1)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinals at basically a pick'em at home against the Redskins. Arizona has an underrated homefield edge and I think this team is going into the 2018 season with a chip on their shoulder. No one is giving them any respect, despite the fact that they managed to win 8 games with their best offensive player, David Johnson, playing in just one game and starting QB, Carson Palmer, missing half the season. Johnson is back healthy and is one of the most dynamic backs in the league and Arizona did a more than adequate job of replacing Palmer with veteran Sam Bradford. As for the Redskins, I think this team is going to be in trouble. Alex Smith isn't going to be the same quarterback under Jay Gruden as he was under Andy Reid and he doesn't have near the weapons at his disposal. Give me the Cardinals -1!
|09-09-18||Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 48||Top||38-28||Win||100||29 h 13 m||Show|
50* NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 48)
I'll likely be on a lot of OVERs in Chiefs' games this year. I think Kansas City's offense is going to light the NFL on fire with Mahomes and all those playmakers at his disposal. The key here is that they are going to be pressed into scoring a lot, because the defense could be a weakness, especially with Eric Berry sidelined (doubtful). KC isn't the only team in this fight that will be missing an elite defensive player. Joey Bosa is not going to play for the Chargers, who are already without defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as he serves a 4-game suspension. I look for both teams to move it up and down the field with a lot of big plays through the air that lead to quick scores and this one flying over the total. Give me the OVER 48!
|09-06-18||Falcons +1.5 v. Eagles||Top||12-18||Loss||-109||10 h 46 m||Show|
50* FALCONS/EAGLES VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Falcons +1.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta on the road against the defending champs. No team had to be more sick about the Eagles going on to win the Super Bowl than the Falcons. That’s because Atlanta had to feel like they should have won that game against Philadelphia in the playoffs.
The Falcons had to be ecstatic when the schedule was released. Not only do they get a chance at revenge, but they have a shot at ruining what will be special night for Eagles’ fans. Not to mention it’s a prime time game, where everyone will be glued to the TV for the first game of a new season.
I’m not just taking the Falcons because of the huge motivation angle, but I think they are the better team in this matchup. The Eagles may have won the Super Bowl without Wentz, but it’s absurd to think they are just as good with Foles. Wentz being out for this game is massive, as I think Foles will struggle to come close to how he played in the Super Bowl. Especially given the Eagles top wide out, Alshon Jeffrey, is doubtful to play. Not to mention the offense was atrocious with Foles in the preseason.
I just don’t see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively with Matt Ryan and the Falcons. A lot of people criticized Atlanta’s offense last year because it wasn’t as good as the 2016 version under Kyle Shanahan. The Falcons still managed to finish in the Top 10 in total offense. They should be even better in year-two under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and I love the addition of rookie wideout Calvin Ridley, who they took in the 1st round.
I also don’t think Atlanta’s defense gets near the respect they deserve. Dan Quinn has done a masterful job of turning the Falcons into one of the top defensive teams in the league. Atlanta was 9th in total defense (318.4 ypg) and 8th in scoring defense (19.7 ppg) last year. Given how young they were on that side of the ball and how much talent they have coming back, there’s no reason to think they won’t continue to get better. Give me the Falcons +1.5!
|02-04-18||Eagles v. Patriots -4||Top||41-33||Loss||-107||98 h 53 m||Show|
50* PATS/EAGLES SUPER BOWL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Pats -4)
As much respect as I have for the Eagles, I don’t know how you go against the Patriots in this scenario. On one side you have arguably both the greatest head coach (Bill Belichick) and quarterback (Tom Brady) to ever play the game.
On the other side you have a head coach (Doug Pederson) that is in just his second year as a head coach with a backup quarterback (Foles) filling in for a MVP candidate (Wentz).
I know the Patriots historically haven’t blown teams out in the Super Bowl, but it’s not asking a lot for New England to win here by 6 or more.
I think the experience factor for New England and having been here and handled all that comes with playing in a Super Bowl is a huge edge. I also think it’s a massive advantage any time you give Belichick two weeks to prepare for opponent.
The public is on the Eagles and the points here, especially having just watched the Patriots struggle against the Jags and Philadelphia completely dominating the Vikings. More times than not the public loses in these high-profile games.
Couple things that you can’t overlook from those outcomes. The Patriots went up against the best defense in the NFL and Brady wasn’t 100%. Not to mention he played the majority of the game without his top weapon in Gronkowski.
As for the Eagles, I think they benefitted not only from playing at home in the underdog role, but I also think the Vikings suffered a major letdown after their miracle win over the Saints the week before.
Give Foles credit. He played a great game against the Vikings, but let’s not forget how much this offense struggled to move the ball in the Division Round against the Falcons, where they only managed 15 points. I’m not saying he won’t play well in the Super Bowl, I just wouldn’t be shocked if Belichick devised a game-plan that made life miserable for Foles and the Eagles. Give me the Patriots -4
|01-21-18||Jaguars +9 v. Patriots||Top||20-24||Win||100||76 h 7 m||Show|
50* NFL PLAYOFFS GAME OF THE YEAR (Jags +9)
I think the Jaguars not only have an excellent shot at keeping this game within the number, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they went into New England and won the game outright. I just think that Jacksonville is the ideal opponent to take down the Pats.
The teams that Brady and the Patriots have struggled against during their ridiculous run over the last decade are teams that can put pressure on the quarterback without having to blitz. In fact, in the postseason, New England is just 4-4 when facing top tier pressure teams, compared to 6-2 against teams that don't put pressure on the quarterback. Pats average almost 11 ppg less and Brady's TD-INT ration is just 15-12 compared to 20-5.
Not only do the Jags have the talent on the defensive line to put pressure on Brady without blitzing, they have the talent and speed at linebacker to cover the running backs out of the backfield and playmakers in the secondary who can at least give some resistance to Gronk.
I know there's some concerns with Jacksonville's offense and how they will score, but I think they can do enough here to keep it close in what I feel will be a low-scoring game. Give me the Jaguars +9!
|01-14-18||Jaguars +7.5 v. Steelers||Top||45-42||Win||100||68 h 36 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Jags +7.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Jacksonville and the points on Sunday. I think this Jaguars defense is not only good enough to keep this game close, but good enough to propel Jacksonville to the AFC Championship Game.
It’s not very often you see a team catching more than a touchdown against an opponent they beat by 21-points early on in the season. That’s just shows you how much the public loves this Steelers team and how little respect and trust the public has for these Jaguars. Most are just going to chalk up that win in the regular season as a fluke and say they got lucky with the turnovers.
I’m not saying I expect Jacksonville to intercept Roethlisberger 5 times on Sunday, but I see no reason not to think that the Steelers offense will struggle to move the ball against this defense. Sure Brown is going to play, but just how effective will he be? If he’s not 100% that’s a big deal. Keep in mind he caught 10 passes for 157 yards in the first meeting and Pittsburgh only managed 3 field goals.
I know the run defense for the Jaguars isn’t as good as the secondary and their ability to stop the pass, but they did a pretty good job of limiting Le’Veon Bell in that first meeting. Bell had just 47 yards on 15 attempts. He did catch 10 passes, but for just 46 yards. If they can bottle him up like they did the first time, it’s going to force Roethlisberger to have to throw and chances are he makes another mistake or two.
Another big key here that I think is getting overlooked is the Steelers defense wasn’t the same once they lost Ryan Shazier in that Week 13 game against the Bengals on Monday Night Football. They just didn’t have the same look, as they no longer had that elite guy in the middle who could use his speed to limit big plays both on the ground and through the air. In the final 5 games the Steelers allowed 127.4 rushing yards/game. In the 11 games prior to that they had allowed 91 yards/game.
Jacksonville rushed for 231 yards on 37 attempts (6.2 yards/carry) against the Steeles with Shazier on the field. I just think the Jaguars are going to be able to move the ball here and put up points. With the way the play defense, I think it’s going to be really hard for Pittsburgh to win here in blowout fashion. Give me the Jags +7.5!
|12-31-17||Cardinals +9 v. Seahawks||Top||26-24||Win||100||6 h 29 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +9)
I just think we are seeing the Seahawks overvalued in this spot, as they are the only team with something to play for. This line basically suggest that Arizona has no business being on the same field with Seattle and I’m just not buying it.
The Cardinals would love nothing more than to go into CenturyLink Field and eliminate the Seahawks from postseason play with a win. I expect an all-out effort here from Arizona and they have proven over recent years that they can overcome the big home field edge Seattle has. The Cardinals have won each of the last two times they visited the Seahawks and three of the last four overall at CenturyLInk Field. It’s also worth pointing out that the underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in the series.
If you watched Seattle’s game last week against the Cowboys, you know that final score doesn’t do justice to how the Seahawks played in that game. Not only did they manage just 136 total yards, but they were outgained by 146 yards. That’s now two straight weeks where Seattle’s offense has been atrocious. In their 42-7 loss to the Rams in Week 15, they only managed 149 yards and were outgained by over 200 yards.
Now they go up against an Arizona defense that has quietly been playing very well down the stretch. The Cardinals are allowing under 250 total yards in their last 5 games and a big reason for that has been their ability to shutout the opposing team’s running game. Arizona has allowed just 139 yards on the ground in their last 3 games combined and have held 7 of their last 8 opponents to 91 or fewer rushing yards. Seattle has thrown for just 131 yards in their last two games combined and are going to have a hard time moving the ball here.
Arizona’s offense is nothing to write home about, but I think they can have some success here against a banged up Seahawks defense that is missing several key starters and has a number of other guys who are either questionable or playing through injuries.
Another factor here that I think favors the Cardinals is they know there’s a good chance that head coach Bruce Arians will be coaching his final game with the team. Whether or not he actually does, these players are going to play their hearts out in the chance that it could be his final game. With that said, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Arizona win this game outright, but no way I’m passing up on getting over a touchdown. Give me the Cardinals +9!
|12-24-17||Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys||Top||21-12||Win||100||24 h 58 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Seahawks +5)
I think we are seeing a big overreaction here from the Seahawks ugly loss to the Rams and the fact that Dallas is getting back Elliott from suspension. Any time a team gets embarrassed the way Seattle did, they almost always come back with one of their best performances in their next game, especially when it’s a quality team like the Seahawks.
The thing you have to keep in mind with the blowout loss to the Rams is that was an absolutely horrible matchup for Seattle. The Seahawks have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and were up against one of the best defensive lines in the league in Aaron Donald. At the same time, they were without one of their best linebackers in K.J. Wright and star linebacker Bobby Wagner basically played on one healthy leg as he took the field with a hamstring injury. Without those two at 100%, they had no chance of slowing down LA’s high-powered offensive attack, which in turn put the offense in horrible spot having to play catchup, which allowed the Rams to come after Wilson.
While Wagner wasn’t a factor in the game, he did avoid further injuring his hamstring and should have a much bigger impact this week. As for Wright, there’s a really good chance he returns after failing to pass the concussion protocol last week. With these two healthy this team was really good against the run. Note that both were injured in the game against Jacksonville in Week 14. Prior to that, from Week 9 to Week 13, Seattle held all 5 of their opponents under 100 yards rushing. Holding Dallas under that mark won’t be easy with Elliott back, but I think they can slow him down enough to keep this close and potentially win outright.
This is also a much better matchup for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense, as Dallas doesn’t have the talent like LA to manhandle Seattle’s offensive line. In fact, I think Wilson could torment this Cowboys defense with his ability to extend plays. The Seahawks should also be able to have some success on the ground, which will open up things even more for Wilson.
Seattle is 9-2 ATS under Pete Carroll when coming off 2 straight losses. They are also 13-4 ATS in their last 17 when coming off 2 straight games in which they scored 7 or less points at the half. As for Dallas, they are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games against a team with a winning road record. Give me the Seahawks +5!
|12-18-17||Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5||Top||24-21||Loss||-108||9 h 55 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 48.5)
These two teams played in Week 12 at Atlanta and combined for 54 points with Fitzpatrick under center for the Bucs. Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense did a lot of the heavy lifting in that one, scoring 34 points on over 500 yards of offense. Since that game Tampa Bay has combined for 46 with the Packers with Hundley at QB and 45 at home against the Lions with a banged up Stafford. Even with the home field edge in a prime time game, I don't think this Bucs defense is going to have an answer for this Falcons offensive attack, which is going to be ready to roll after playing two of the better defenses in the league the last two weeks in the Vikings and Saints. It's also worth noting that Winston is back in the lineup for the Bucs and has looked good outside of some turnovers and I expect him to have a big game here. I think we could see both teams eclipse 30-points in this one. Give me the OVER 48.5!
|12-17-17||Patriots -3 v. Steelers||Top||27-24||Push||0||96 h 51 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Patriots -3)
I’m going to take the New England Patriots -3 on the road over the Pittsburgh Steelers.
If history tells us anything, I think it’s that you don’t bet against the Patriots off a loss, especially an ugly showing like they had against the Dolphins in Week 14.
New England is 41-19-2 ATS since the start of the 2001 season following a loss and a ridiculous 22-4 SU and 23-3 ATS when in this spot and listed as an underdog or favorite of 3-points or less.
They are also 24-7 ATS in their last 31 off a game where they had less than 250 total yards and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 after a game where they allowed more than 350 yards.
I know it’s not something you see often from a New England team, but I don’t think this team showed up with the right mindset against the Dolphins. Part of it was the lack of respect for Miami and that team and the other was they had this massive game on deck against Pittsburgh. Let’s also not overlook that’s not the first time they have struggled on the road against the Dolphins.
One thing New England hasn’t done is struggle to find ways to beat these Steelers. The Patriots have won 4 straight in the series, which includes three wins over the last two seasons. They won 28-21 in Week 1 of the 2015 campaign. Last year they not only beat them 27-16 in Pittsburgh in Week 7, but destroyed them 36-17 later on in the AFC Championship Game. As you can see from the results, Bill Belichick and his staff have done a masterful job of keeping this high-powered Steelers offense in check, while the offense has had their way with the Pittsburgh defense.
Another thing that I think is getting overlooked here is just how fortunate the Steelers are to be riding an 8-game winning streak and sitting at 11-2. Let’s just look at their last 6 games. They have trailed by double-digits going into the 4th quarter of each of their last two games against the Ravens and Bengals. Needed overtime to beat the Packers without Aaron Rodgers at home 31-28. They trailed the Colts 3-17 in the 2nd half of a 20-17 win and were bailed out by bad coaching in a 10-15 win agains the Lions, as Detroit went for it on 4th down instead of kicking field goals twice in the 2nd half. I just don’t think that’s the sign of a 11-2 team and it’s only a matter of time before their luck runs out.
I know the Patriots are banged up right now, but they will be getting back Gronkowski from suspension. Not having him is a big reason why Brady and the offense struggled against the Dolphins. This is also not the same Steelers defense as it was a few weeks ago. Pittsburgh lost in my opinion their most important defensive player in Ryan Shazier in that physical game with Cincinnati. Without him last week they gave up 38 points and over 400 yards to a bad Ravens offense. New England is going to take full advantage of his absence in this one.
It’s also worth pointing out that the Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Lastly, favorites who have won 3 of their last 4 against and are playing a team that has won 8 or more games in their last 10 are a dominant 32-8 (80%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Give me the Pats -3!
|12-11-17||Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 48.5||Top||20-27||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48.5)
I think the value here is on the total and this one going under the mark of 48.5. These two teams just played two weeks ago in New England and combined for 52 points, but I think there's a big edge here for these two defenses having just played the opposing offense. Miami also is a much better defensive team at home and are catching a huge break with Gronkowski being suspended. Keep in mind it was the Patriots who did the heavy lifting in terms of the total in that game two weeks ago, as they had 35 points. The defense held Miami to just 17 points and I think we see the Dolphins struggle to eclipse that mark here. Give me the UNDER 48.5!
|12-10-17||Vikings v. Panthers +3||Top||24-31||Win||100||45 h 15 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP PLAY OF THE MONTH (Panthers +3)
I went against the Vikings last week with Atlanta. A game in which the difference was the Falcons had to settle for 3 field goals, while both of Minnesota’s score were touchdowns. I’m going to go against the Vikings again here, as I just don’t think this Carolina team should be a dog against anyone on their home field.
The Panthers 10-point loss at New Orleans doesn’t concern me, as the Saints are as tough as anyone to beat on their home field. I’ll take my chances here with Carolina rebounding at home against the Vikings, as we should see a desperate Panthers team that may need to win out just to make the playoffs.
Another big key here is this is not a great spot for Minnesota. The Vikings will be playing their 3rd straight on the road and each of the previous two have been huge games. The first was that Thanksgiving Day game at Detroit, which at the time the Lions were still in the hunt for the NFC North lead. Then they had last week’s huge game at the Falcons. I just think it’s asking a lot of this team to go into Carolina and get a win against this team.
Note that teams playing 3 straight on the road going back to the start of the 2000 season have won that 3rd road game just 34% of the time and are just 43.5% ATS. It gets even worse if they are playing a good team that’s won more than 60% of their games, as the team playing their 3rd straight on the road have won outright just 24% of the time and covered only 33% of the time.
While the Panthers don’t have the offensive fire-power of the Falcons, this team has been playing much better on that side of the ball here of late. They have scored at least 20 in 4 straight and are averaging 33.7 ppg over their last 3. Given the situation for the Vikings, I think we see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense be able to move the ball and unlike Atlanta, finish off drives with touchdowns and not field goals.
I also think Minnesota is going to have a really tough time moving the ball here against this Carolina defense. The Panthers are only giving up 19.8 ppg (10th) and are 6th in the NFL in total defense (297.6 ypg). They are also a balanced defense, ranking inside the top 10 against both the run (4th, 88.6 ypg) and the pass (7th, 209 ypg).
It’s also worth noting that the Panthers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 following a loss and are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 after playing a division game last time out. Carolina is also 9-3 ATS in their last 12 when listed as an underdog and 4-0 ATS over the last 3 seasons at home with a total set of 35.5 to 42 points. Give me the Panthers +3!
|12-03-17||Vikings v. Falcons -2.5||Top||14-9||Loss||-120||43 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL *NFC* GAME OF THE MONTH (Falcons -2.5)
This is simply too good of a price to pass up with Atlanta. After struggling to put it all together early on, the Falcons have started to look more and more like the team that steamrolled through the NFC playoffs a season ago. It feels like the turning point in their season was that ugly 7-23 loss at New England. Since that defeat, they have gone 4-1.
The only game they lost was at Carolina by 3-points, a game they could have easily won. They had a 10-point lead early and won the yardage and turnover battle. In their last 3 games they have crushed the Cowboys 27-7 at home, went on the road and beat the Seahawks in prime time on Monday Night Football and completed dominated a division rival in the Bucs.
The best teams in the NFL rarely lose on their home field and that where I feel we get the value when you have two good teams playing each other. We saw this two weeks ago with the Vikings, when they hosted the Rams, who had won 4 straight. Minnesota was just a 2-point home favorite and won that game 24-7. Similar story last week with the Rams hosting the Saints. New Orleans had won 8 straight and were just a 3-point road dog, but it was LA that won 26-20.
While the Vikings win last week at Detroit might be considered a good road win, I just don’t think the Lions are that great of a team. The only other wins for Minnesota away from home are against the Redskins, Bears and Browns (London). Their only loss came at Pittsburgh by a final of 9-26 and keep in mind they were an 8-point dog on the road against the Steelers. I see this Falcons team a lot closer to Pittsburgh than Detroit and I wouldn’t be shocked if the Falcons ran away with this one. Give me Atlanta -2.5!
|11-26-17||Saints v. Rams -120||Top||20-26||Win||100||18 h 42 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Rams -120)
I just think there’s too much value here with the Rams laying less than a field goal at home against the Saints. New Orleans is getting way too much respect here on the road against one of the best teams in the NFL. A lot of that has to do with the fact that the Saints have won 8 straight and own a 7-1 ATS record during this stretch. At the same time, the public was just burned by the Rams in last week’s ugly loss to the Vikings.
I wasn’t the least bit surprised to see LA struggle on the road against the Vikings. Minnesota is one of the best teams in the NFL that no one is talking about and have a much bigger home field advantage than they get credit for. In fact, I was on the Vikings in that game. Now it’s the Rams who are almost in an identical spot here against the Saints.
Not to take anything away from New Orleans and their 8-game winning streak, but a big reason they have won 8 in a row is the schedule has set up perfectly. Only two of the six wins have come against a team that currently has a winning record. One of those was at Carolina, but that was back when Cam Newton was still shaking off the rust from his shoulder surgery. The other was at home against the Lions, who I don’t feel are anywhere close to as good as their 6-4 record would suggest. In my opinion, the Rams are the best team the Saints will have played since they lost at home to the Patriots way back in Week 2.
One of the reasons that New Orleans has been playing so well is they are vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball. Unfortunately for them, they suffered a big loss in the win over the Redskins, as defensive end Alex Okafor was lost for the season with an Achilles injury. They also lost star rookie corner Marshon Lattimore to an ankle injury and it’s looking unlikely that he will be able to play. Those are two key pieces to their success on that side of the ball and I believe it will be too much to overcome here against a potent Rams offense that is 2nd in the NFL at 30.3 ppg.
I also think we see the Saints offense struggle to get going in this one. After struggling to adjust early on to new schemes under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Rams have been playing at an elite level on the defensive side of the ball. Over their last 6 games they are giving up just 13.5 ppg and this is hands down the best defense that New Orleans has faced since their Week 1 loss to Minnesota, where they scored just 19 points.
Lastly, the Saints are just 4-13 ATS in their last 17 when they come in having covered at least 7 of their last 8 and 4-14 ATS in their last 18 road games after scoring 25 or more points in 3 straight games. Give me the Rams!
|11-19-17||Rams v. Vikings -2||Top||7-24||Win||100||89 h 41 m||Show|
50* NFL SHARP MONEY GAME OF THE MONTH (Vikings -2)
The Vikings simply aren’t getting enough respect on their home field. Since Mike Zimmer took over as head coach, Minnesota has gone 20-10 SU and 22-8 ATS at home. One of things I like about this Vikings team is you rarely hear anyone talking about them, despite the fact that they are tied for the 2nd best record in the NFL at 7-2.
LA has that same 7-2 record and they are getting all kinds of love. Mainly because no one saw this coming. Either way, I think it’s going to have the Vikings playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they look to send a message to the rest of the league that they are for real. This is also a huge game in terms of a potential first round bye in the playoffs.
The biggest thing for me in this matchup is I believe the Vikings have the talent defensively to slow down this high-powered Rams attack. Minnesota ranks 3rd in the NFL against the run (81.3 ypg) and are 12th against the pass (213.2 ypg). No one enjoys shutting down a great offense more than Zimmer, who is one of the brightest defensive minds in the game today. Since he took over at Minnesota, the Vikings are 11-2 ATS in 13 games against excellent passing teams, who average 260 or more yards/game through the air. They are also 8-1 ATS in 9 games against teams that average 375 or more total yards/game.
Another factor here that I think favors Minnesota is the Rams have kind of been on cruise control here of late. Each of their 4 games during their winning streak have been decided by 10 or more points. They haven’t been in a closely contest battle in more than a month. The Vikings on the other hand are team that’s got countless close wins under their resume over the last few seasons and my money is on them to find a way to win this game at home. Give me Minnesota -2!
|11-12-17||Vikings -2 v. Redskins||Top||38-30||Win||100||4 h 35 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Vikings -2)
The Vikings have one of the best records in the NFL at 6-2 and have accomplished this mark with backup quarterback Case Keenum starting the majority of the games. That just goes to tell you have talented and deep this Vikings team is across the board.
I just don’t think they are getting near the respect they deserve coming off their bye. Minnesota has had two weeks to prepare for the Redskins, as well as refresh their bodies and minds for the stretch run. On the flip side of this, you have a Redskins team that just played a very physical game on the road in Seattle, where they really had to grind it out for the win. I just think it’s going to be tough for Washington to bounce back with the kind of effort needed to take down the Vikings. Keep in mind that this is a Redskins team that has just been decimated with injuries here over the last month.
Lets also not overlook just how fortunate a win that was for Washington against the Seahawks. They were outgained on the game by nearly 200 yards and benefited from 3 missed field goals by Seattle kicker Blair Walsh. If he just makes two of those, good chance the Seahawks win that game. I think if the Redskins would have lost, we would be looking at the Vikings laying closer to a field goal.
I also like the matchup here for Minnesota’s offense, which is really the key to their success, as the defense is one of the best in the NFL and will hold the opponent in check more times than not. The Vikings are at their best when they can establish the running game and should be able to do just that against the Redskins. Washington’s run defense has taken a big hit with the recent injuries and have allowed 139.4 yards/game against the run over their last 5.
Lastly, the Redskins are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win. Give me the Vikings -2.
|11-05-17||Rams -4 v. Giants||Top||51-17||Win||100||24 h 37 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -4)
I think you have to lay the points here with the Rams on the road, as I just don’t know how you trust this Giants team right now. I know New York hasn’t even played half of their schedule, but there’s just not a lot to play for and clearly that’s the thought process of some of the players. Top corner Janoris Jenkins has been suspended due to failing to show on time following the time off given during the bye week.
It would be one thing if the Giants were in a division that was up for grabs and had all their key pieces on the field, but neither of those things is the case. New York has zero chance of winning the NFC East with the Eagles sitting on top the division at 7-1. Add in the loss of star wide out Odell Beckham Jr, among several other key injuries on offense and I just don’t see how the players can convince themselves that there’s something to play for.
The Rams on the other hand are a team on the rise and haven’t enjoyed enough success in the past to let their hot start get to their heads. This team is trying to accomplish something special. The can only imagine how much different the attitude and level of focus has been in LA’s locker room compared to New York’s.
On top of all that, the Rams are without a doubt the better team in this matchup. The offense has transformed into one of the best in the league under McVay. LA is 2nd in the NFL in scoring at 30.3 ppg and 9th in total offense at 360 ypg. Another promising sign with this team is the defense is starting to catch up to the offense. It wasn’t pretty early on under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, but LA has allowed just 33 points over their last 3 games combined. They should have no problem shutting down an anemic Giants offense.
You also have to like how the Rams have already proven the ability to win on the road. All 4 wins during their current 4-1 stretch have come away from home. I think LA has no problem winning here by at least a touchdown and wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if they ran away with this thing early. Give me the Rams -4!
|10-30-17||Broncos v. Chiefs -7||Top||19-29||Win||100||11 h 38 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -7)
My money is on KC at home on Monday Night Football against the Broncos. This might seem like a big number for a division game, but I think this is an ideal spot to back the Chiefs. Not only does this feel like a must-win for Kansas City off 2 straight losses, but they got a big edge with a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday in Week 7. Any time you give Andy Reid extra time to prepare for an opponent, it typically ends bad for the other side. Note their win over the Eagles, where they led by 14 late in that game was after they played on Thursday the previous week. I know the Chiefs lost to Oakland in their last game, but they have dominated the AFC West and are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 against the division. Give me Kansas City -7!
|10-29-17||Steelers -3 v. Lions||Top||20-15||Win||100||23 h 33 m||Show|
50* NFL Sunday Night GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3)
I just don't trust this Lions team against the Steelers, who might be the best team in the AFC. We pay so much attention to Pittsburgh's "Triple B's" on offense, but I've been really impressed with the defense. If you take away the two interceptions returned for a TD and a garbage TD in the final minutes in their 9-30 loss to the Jaguars, the Steelers defense would be working on 4 straight games where they haven't allowed more than 14 points. Note that Jaguars game is the only one all season where they gave up more than 20-points in regulation. I expect the defense to show up in prime time game tonight and we get more than enough from Big Ben and the Steelers offense to secure the win and cover. Give me Pittsburgh -3!
|10-29-17||Cowboys -1.5 v. Redskins||Top||33-19||Win||100||19 h 31 m||Show|
100* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Cowboys -1.5)
The fact that this is a division rivalry is keeping this line lower than it should be and creating great value here on the Cowboys. Dallas looked like a different team coming out of their bye with a 40-10 blowout win over at San Francisco. I look for them to dominate this game from start to finish. Not only are the Redskins playing on a short week after their game against the Eagles on MNF, but they are decimated with injuries on both sides of the ball. Washington will be without the two most important starters on the o-line, as left tackle Trent Williams and center Spencer Long are both out. They could be without two more starters, as right guard Brandon Scherff and right tackle Morgan Moses are both questionable. While the Redskins will get back Josh Norman on defense, they lost linebacker Mason Foster and recently lost stud rookie defensive tackle Jonathan Allen. The Cowboys defense should be able to keep Washington in check, while their offensive line wears down a tired and depleted Redskins defense. Give me Dallas -1.5!
|10-23-17||Redskins v. Eagles UNDER 49.5||Top||24-34||Loss||-107||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (UNDER 49.5)
The first meeting between these two division rivals saw a combined 47 points, but that was with both teams recording defensive touchdowns. There were also a few other scores that were aided by a short field off a turnover (6 turnovers in the game). Both teams know what to expect from the opponent and I see no reason why the total here is higher than the output they had in the first meeting. You get a lot of talk about these two offenses, but both are rock-solid on the defensive side of the ball. Add in the extra incentive to play well on MNF and this should have no problem staying under 50 points. Give me the UNDEr 49.5!
|10-22-17||Bengals +5.5 v. Steelers||Top||14-29||Loss||-110||24 h 2 m||Show|
50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Bengals +5.5)
For as well as the Steelers played against the Chiefs last week, there’s reason to be concerned that they only won by 6-points. Had it not been for what should have been an interception bouncing off a Chief player and into the hands of Antonio Brown, which he ran in for a TD, they actually might have lost that game.
While Le’Veon Bell was fantastic with 179 yards on 32 attempts, Ben Roethlisberger didn’t look great and hasn’t really played well in 2017. I think the Steelers offense is in for a long day here against a stingy Cincinnati defense. The Bengals come in ranked 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 262.8 ypg. They also have the 2nd best scoring defense, allowing only 16.6 ppg.
The run defense has been exceptional the past few weeks, which also coincided with return of star linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who missed the first 3 games with a suspension. Cincinnati has allowed just 63.7 ypg in their last 3, holding the Bills strong rushing attack to just 82 yards in their last game. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Bell, but I think he has a hard time getting to 100 yards unless he breaks a big run.
It’s not just the defense that has come alive for the Bengals. Cincinnati’s offense has looked so much better since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. Under Labor the Bengals are averaging 25.0 ppg and 346.3 ypg. Note they scored a combined 9 points and averaged just 258 yards/game under Zampese.
The other big key here is that Cincinnati is coming off a bye, which I believe should have this spread a lot closer to a field goal than a touchdown. The thing is, even though the Bengals are clearly on the rise, Pittsburgh is such a public team the books are going to take advantage of that an inflate the line. Give me the Bengals +5.5!
|10-19-17||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 46||Top||30-31||Win||100||23 h 8 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/RAIDERS AFC WEST TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 46)
I wasn't surprised to see the Chiefs offense struggle last week against the Steelers. Pittsburgh's defense has had this teams number, shutting them down in the 3 meetings over the last 2 seasons. As bad as KC looked in that game, you can't forget just how good this offense was to start the season. I know they lost some wide outs, but all are guys they can replace and really weren't big factors in the offense to begin with. They still have their dynamic trio of Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and Kareem Hunt. I do expect the Raiders offense to come to life here, as this Chiefs defense is giving up 378 yards/game and 6.2 yards/play. I also think defenses are at a much bigger disadvantage on these short weeks with such little time to prepare. Give me the OVER 46!
|10-16-17||Colts v. Titans UNDER 48||Top||22-36||Loss||-110||10 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)
I don't see a ton of offense taking place on Monday Night Football between the Colts and Titans. Tennessee will have Marcus Mariota back under center, but he's still not fully recovered from a hamstring injury that kept him out of last weeks game. I also think the Titans defense is a lot better than it's getting credit for. They really just had one bad game against the Texans that really skewed their defensive numbers.
The Colts offense is still without Andrew Luck and until he's back under center Indianapolis will struggle to put point on the board. There's no denying that Jacoby Brissett is better than Scott Tolzien, but Brissett is still a backup at best in this league right now. He's only throwing for 182.2 ypg and has a mere 2 touchdown passes to 3 interceptions on the season.
Another key factor here that can't get overlooked is that these are division rivals, who both desperately need to win this game in a wide open AFC South. These two teams know what the other likes to do and that usually leads to a lower-scoring game. Give me the UNDER here at 48!
|10-15-17||Chargers v. Raiders -4||Top||17-16||Loss||-105||29 h 49 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC WEST GAME OF THE MONTH (Raiders -4)
I absolutely love this spot for the Raiders at home against division rival Chargers. All the hype around Oakland has took a big hit with their current 3-game losing streak, but they are getting back starting quarterback Derek Carr against a Chargers team they have beat 4 straight times.
Los Angeles was able to avoid an 0-5 start by beating another winless team in the Giants in Week 5, but were fortunate to do so, as they trailed 17-22 going in the 4th quarter. I know the Chargers have been competitive despite the 1-4 record, but this is a tough spot playing on the road for a second straight week against a desperate Raiders team that really can't afford to lose this game with how well the Chiefs and Broncos are playing in their division.
I think this is the week that Marshawn Lynch and that Raiders running game gets going, as they go up against a Chargers defense that ranks dead last vs the run, allowing 161.2 ypg. That's only going to make it that much easier on Carr in his first game back from injury. This San Diego offense is also nothing special and continue to struggle to run the ball.
Oakland is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games off a double-digit loss at home, while the Chargers are a mere 2-9 ATS in their last 11 off a SU win, and 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs the AFC. Give me the Raiders -4!
|10-15-17||Patriots -9 v. Jets||Top||24-17||Loss||-104||26 h 36 m||Show|
50* NFL AFC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH (Patriots -9)
I would love to what the odds would have been that the Patriots and Jets would have the same record going into their Week 6 showdown. I believe it has New England showing some value and that’s hard to do when you are talking about a near double-digit road favorite against a division rival.
I’ll be the first to say that I didn’t see the Jets winning 3-games all season, but I’m also not going to let a 3-game winning streak against the Dolphins, Jaguars and Browns change my thought process on this team. I still believe the Jets are one of the worst teams in the league and wouldn’t be shocked if they didn’t win another game.
I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry. I just don’t see the Jets being able to generate enough offense to keep this close. I know the Patriots defense has been bad to start the year, but they were a lot better last time out against the Bucs. Holding a potent Tampa Bay offense to just 14 points.
One of the reasons for New England’s poor start defensively is a schedule the has had them face Alex Smith, Drew Brees, Deshaun Watson, Cam Newton and Jameis Winston. They finally catch a break here going up against Josh McCown, who has a mere 5 touchdowns to 4 interceptions. Under his guidance the offense has scored 23 or less in all 5 games.
As for the Jets defense and their strong numbers, they have faced Tyrod Taylor, Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Blake Bortles and DeShone Kizer/Kevin Hogan. Carr is the only one of those who you would consider an above-average QB and he went 23 of 28 for 230 yards and 3 scores in a 25-point blowout win. Even with the home crowd supporting them, I don’t see the Jets keeping the Patriots offense in check here.
I also like the fact that the Patriots haven’t got off to a great start. Not that Belichick would let them look past any opponent, they should be 100% locked in for a division matchup. You also have to factor in the advantage Belichick and his staff have here with New England getting a few extra days to prepare after playing on Thursday last week. All signs point to a lopsided win and cover for the Patriots in this one. Give me New England -9!
|10-12-17||Eagles v. Panthers -3||Top||28-23||Loss||-120||10 h 29 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -3)
Carson Wentz and the Eagles are getting all kinds of love right now and a lot of people are saying they are the best team in the NFC. I don’t think that’s going to sit well with Carolina, who I’m surprised isn’t getting more love given they are just two seasons removed from going 15-1 and playing in the Super Bowl.
I was really high on Carolina coming into this season and expected them to return close to the form that had them playing on the final Sunday of the season two years ago. The offense didn’t start out great, but have found a nice rhythm the last two games, scoring 33 on the Patriots and 27 on the Lions.
Newton has been a big reason for the uptick in production, throwing for 671 yards with 6 TDs to just 1 INT. In his previous 3 games he had only thrown for 566 yards with a mere 2 TDs and 4 INT. Keep in mind he came into the season at less than 100% recovering from offseason surgery on his throwing arm. For those that don’t remember, Carolina led the NFL in scoring at 31.3 ppg during that magical 2015 season.
Not to take anything away from the Eagles and their strong start, but they come in having beat the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals over the last 3 weeks. Those three teams are a combined 3-12 on the year. Their best win coming at Washington in Week 1.
I think this is a game where we see Wentz and the Eagles struggle on the road against one of the top tier teams in the league. Carolina’s defense is one of the best the NFL has to offer. The Panthers come in 6th against the run (79.8 ypg) and are 5th against the pass (194.2 ypg). This will be their first game against a team that ranks inside the Top 10 against both the run and the pass.
Eagles are just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games, while the Panthers are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 when they come in having won 3 of 4 and 25-15 in their last 40 against a strong offensive team that is averaging 24+ points/game. Give me the Panthers -3!
|10-08-17||Bills v. Bengals -3||Top||16-20||Win||100||40 h 43 m||Show|
50* VEGAS SHARP MONEY AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bengals -3)
I think now is the time to sell high on the Bills and buy low on the Bengals. I’ll admit I didn’t see Buffalo starting out 3-1, especially with road games against both the Panthers and the Falcons.
A win is a win, but they certainly caught a break when Atlanta lost their best offensive weapon in wide out Julio Jones in the first half and then No. 2 wide out Mohamed Sanu in the 3rd quarter. All 3 of the Bills turnovers came after Jones left the game with an injury, including the big fumble return for a touchdown.
The play of the Bills defense has really been the reason for their strong start, but they are dealing with a bit of the injury bug on that side. They just lost weak side linebacker Ramon Humber to a thumb injury. That might not seem like a big injury, mainly because Humber isn’t a household name. However, his 28 sole tacklers are 11 more than the next best player. Starting corner E.J. Gaines is also questionable.
Keep in mind that this Buffalo offense hasn’t done a whole lot so far in 2017. They come in ranked 29th in total offense at just 284.3 ypg and are 23rd in scoring at 18.3 ppg. If not for the 3-1 start, there would be a lot more criticism on this unit. Who just lost their top wide out in Jordan Matthews.
I look for the Bills offense to continue to struggle here against a Bengals defense that isn’t getting the respect it deserves because of the offenses early woes and their 1-3 start. Cincinnati is 3rd in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 273.3 ypg. That unit only figures to get better now that is has one of it’s biggest playmakers back in linebacker Vontaze Burfict, who just returned from a 3-game suspension last week.
It’s also worth noting that this Cincinnati offense has come alive since they fired offensive coordinator Ken Zampese and replaced him with Bill Lazor. As long as the offense takes care of the ball, they should do enough here to win this game by at least a field goal.
Bills are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 road games against a good defensive team that is allowing 4.75 or less yards/play. Cincinnati on the other hand is 32-20 ATS under Marvin Lewis off a win by 10 or more points and 26-9 under Lewis after leading their previous game by 14 or more at the half. Give me the Bengals -3
|10-05-17||Patriots v. Bucs +6||Top||19-14||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* PATS/BUCS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bucs +6)
This Patriots defense has been dreadful through the first four weeks of the season. They are 31st in points allowed at 32.0 ppg and dead last in yards allowed (476.8 ypg). They are 32nd against the pass (324.0 ypg) and 26th against the run (132.8 ypg).
This past weekend they let Cam Newtown and a struggling Carolina offense rack up 33 points and 444 yards. The defense was so bad, the Patriots couldn’t even win at home, despite being +2 in turnovers. As much as I hate going against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady off a loss, I just see too much value in Tampa Bay as an underdog at home.
I was impressed with how the Bucs responded against the Giants, as they were still missing some key players on defense. They are starting to get healthy on that side of the ball and while I don’t expect them to shutdown Brady and the Patriots offense, I think they can keep them in check enough to keep this game close and at least cover.
More than anything, I just don’t see New England’s defense being able to slow down Jameis Winston and this high-powered Buccaneers offense. A unit that’s only going to get better once DeSean Jackson starts getting more involved. They also get a big boost to their running game this week, as Doug Martin returns from a 3-game suspension. Martin was impressive in training camp and could step in right away with a huge game against this Pats defense.
While New England’s offense is built around Brady and the passing attack, the ability to have some success on the ground is critical. It won’t be easy getting the running game going against the Bucs, who rank 5th in the NFL against the run, allowing just 78.7 ypg and a mere 2.9 yards/carry. Note that the Patriots are just 1-4 ATS over the last 3 seasons against teams who are holding opponents under 90 rushing yards/game. Give me the Bucs +6!
|10-01-17||Bills v. Falcons -8||Top||23-17||Loss||-110||16 h 40 m||Show|
100* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR (Falcons -8)
I know this is a big number, but I really like the Falcons in this spot. Buffalo is off to a surprising 2-1 start and fresh off an upset win at home against the Broncos in Week 3. I think it has the public hesitating a bit here to Atlanta, who has a couple of wins over the Bears and Lions that weren't all that impressive. The thing is, both of those came on the road. The Falcons lone home game this season was a blowout win over the Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
Buffalo has a decent defense and was able to do enough on that side against a pretty limited Denver offense at home, where they are a much better team. I know they only lost by 6 at Carolina, but the final was 3-9. The Panthers offense was a joke in that game and has not looked good at all so far this season. Buffalo's offense was even worse and I just don't see them being able to contain this high-powered Falcons offense.
I'm still convinced that the Bills are in a major rebuilding phase and aren't built to win. They simply have looked good early against a horrible Jets team, a bad Panthers offense and a Broncos team that was primed for a letdown after that big win over Dallas. I would be shocked if this is a game for long. Give me the Falcons -8 in a blowout!
|10-01-17||Titans -2.5 v. Texans||Top||14-57||Loss||-105||16 h 37 m||Show|
50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Titans -2.5)
I've been impressed with what Deshaun Watson has been able to do for this Houston offense and his play last week in what should have been an upset of the Patriots. However, I think the way they lost that game puts them in a tough spot here against a hungry and very good Tennessee team. It's a lot easier to bounce back from a blowout loss than it is a defeat where you let a win slip through your fingers.
The other big thing to keep in mind here is that Houston's offense had looked awful in their previous two games. They simply went up against a Patriots defense that might be playing as bad as any unit in the NFL. I look for this Titans defense to really make life miserable for Watson and that offense, which has a below-average offensive line.
As for Tennessee's offense, I think they pose some problems for this Houston defense, which is built more to get after the quarterback than to stop the run. The Titans have a top level offensive line and running game, plus a mobile quarterback that can make plays when nothing is there. Tennessee has one goal and that's to win the division, so I don't see them laying an egg off the big win over Seattle. Give me the Titans -2.5!
|09-25-17||Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5||Top||28-17||Loss||-120||9 h 0 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3.5)
I like Arizona here at this price against a Dallas team that I think is getting a little too much respect on the road. The Cardinals 1-1 start doesn't look good on paper and the hype around this team took a big hit when David Johnson landed on IR. I still think there's a ton of talent on the roster and see this team coming out with a chip on their shoulder in what will be their home opener. Dallas on the other hand is playing their second straight on the road after getting rolled last week in Denver. I think Arizona's defense being able to slow down the Cowboys ground game, much like the Broncos did last week will be the key here to the Cardinals not only covering the spread but winning this game outright. Give me the Cardinals +3.5!
|09-24-17||Bucs -2.5 v. Vikings||Top||17-34||Loss||-110||36 h 58 m||Show|
50* NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Bucs -2.5)
I don't think the public is quite on par with how good this Bucs team is and I just see too much value here with Tampa laying less than a field goal with Minnesota missing starting quarterback Sam Bradford. Case Keenum was terrible in place of Bradford last week against the Steelers, completing just 20 of 37 for 167 yards (4.5 yards/attempt). He's just good enough to get the job done here against a stingy Bucs defense.
I also really like this Tampa Bay offense. The addition of DeSean Jackson really opens up the offense, as you have to worry about him going deep and at the same time you have one of the elite wide outs on the other side in Mike Evans. As long as Winston takes care of the football, Tampa should have no problem securing a win here. Give me the Bucs -2.5!
|09-21-17||Rams v. 49ers OVER 39||Top||41-39||Win||100||12 h 56 m||Show|
50* RAMS/49ERS NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39)
I believe a big reason for this low total is a result of how the 49ers first two games have gone. San Francisco’s first two games combined only add up to 47 points, as they have scored a mere 12-points in 2 games. The thing is, they have went up against two of the best defenses in the NFL in the Seahawks and Panthers. Also two teams who are struggling offensively because of poor offensive line play. While the Rams are considered to have a good defense, I don’t think they are on the same level as the Seahawks and Panthers. They were great against the Colts, but I feel that was more a byproduct of Scott Tolzien. They weren’t nearly as good agains the Redskins. The stat that sticks out is Washington’s 229 rushing yards on 39 attempts (5.9 yards/carry). That’s good news for a 49ers offense that needs to be able to run the ball to have success. I also think they will be able to generate a few more big plays through the air in this one. As for the Rams offense, I like what I’m seeing in the first year under McVay. I really think it’s a unit that is only going to keep getting better, as they are still adjusting to a new scheme and several new pieces. Give me the OVER 39!
|09-18-17||Lions v. Giants UNDER 42.5||Top||24-10||Win||100||11 h 47 m||Show|
40* LIONS/GIANTS MNF OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 42.5)
Two good quarterbacks here in Stafford and Manning, but I don't see either offense doing much in this one. The concerns with the Giants offense are even worse after watching how the Broncos picked apart the Cowboys defense. Even if Beckham Jr. suits up, I still think NY has a tough time moving the ball with the problems they have on the o-line and the inability to run the ball. On the flip side of this, I love this Giants defense and with the team desperate to avoid an 0-2 start and the game at home, I think they shutdown Stafford here. Keep in mind these two teams played late last year and combined for 23 points. Give me the UNDER 42.5!
|09-17-17||Redskins v. Rams -2.5||Top||27-20||Loss||-119||43 h 1 m||Show|
50* NFC VEGAS ATS GAME OF THE MONTH (Rams -2.5)As most of you know, I’m big on the Rams this year. They were my favorite win total bet at OVER 5.5. They absolutely dominated the Colts in a 46-9 home win. Washington on the other hand looked bad in a 17-30 home loss to Philadelphia. An Eagles team they had won 5 straight against. You don’t want to overreact to Week 1, but I think it’s pretty clear what direction these two teams are headed in 2017. I actually think we are going to look back at this line later in the season and realize it should have been closer to a TD. That’s how high I am on LA and how down I am on Washington. The crazy thing is my perception of both teams has to do with the same guy. That’s new Rams head coach Sean McVay, who was responsible for turning the Redskins offensive attack into one of the best in the NFL with Kirk Cousins as his starting QB. Without McVay calling the shots, Washington’s offense managed just 10 points and only 264 total yards in Week 1 against the Eagles. Not to mention they had 4 turnovers. That’s an offense that ranked 3rd in the NFL last year at 403.4 ypg. Cousins had just 240 yards on 58% passing. The Rams offense was responsible for 30 of the 46 points and had 373 yards. Goff looked like a completely different QB in McVay’s offense going 21 of 29 for 306 yards and Todd Gurley was at least a factor. The defense also limited the Colts to just 9 points and 225 total yards without their best player in Aaron Donald, who figures to be back this week. Give me the Rams -2.5!
|09-14-17||Texans v. Bengals -6||Top||13-9||Loss||-108||12 h 52 m||Show|
50* TEXANS/BENGALS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bengals -6)
Wouldn't be shocked if the public comes in on the Texans with Watson expected to start, but I'm not one that believes he's ready to be an NFL quarterback. For as many good moments he's had, he's also looked really bad at times. The biggest thing for me is he's in a situation where it will be extremely tough to succeed. The offensive line is a complete mess, in large part to the holdout of left tackle Duane Brown and injury to guard Jeff Allen. They also are down their top 3 tight ends on the depth chart, as well as their No. 2 wide out in Will Fuller. Throw in the rookie mistakes and the disadvantage of playing on the road on a short week of rest and I have to roll the Bengals at home. I'm not super high on Cincinnati, but do feel there's a bit of an overreaction here with how bad they played last week against possibly the best defense in the NFL in the Ravens. Dalton will get the offense back on track. Give me the Bengals -6!
|09-11-17||Saints v. Vikings UNDER 48||Top||19-29||Push||0||8 h 20 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 48)
I look for both offenses to struggle to get going in this one and feel there's big time value here with the UNDER. Minnesota should have one of the best defenses in the league and are more than capable of shutting down Drew Brees and the Saints offense at home in a big time game like this. Most don't see New Orleans as a great defensive team, but they made a lot of progress on that side of the ball last year and I expect them to be even better in 2017. Minnesota's offense should be improved now that Bradford has had an offseason with the team, but it's far from an elite unit. I still see the Vikings as a team that wants to win by controlling the clock with the running game and relying on their defense to make plays. Give me the UNDER 48!
|09-10-17||Ravens +3 v. Bengals||Top||20-0||Win||100||239 h 47 m||Show|
50* AFC NORTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Ravens +3)
I think the Ravens are a huge sleeper in the AFC this season. Baltimore had been so consistent for so long under Harbaugh, but had to go through a bit of a rebuilding phase with all the veterans they parted way with on both sides. Ozzie Newsome has done a tremendous job once again and while a lot of people aren't aware of it, Baltimore has the looks of one of the best defensive teams in the league this year. I also think the offense is way underrated and Joe Flacco is poised for a big bounce back season. Cincinnati's defense has been on the decline for years and will be without two of their best defenders in Burfict and Pac-Man. The offense has some new weapons, but the offensive line is a concern and figures to get exposed here. Give me the Ravens +3!
|02-05-17||Patriots -3 v. Falcons||Top||34-28||Win||100||26 h 56 m||Show|
50* Super Bowl 51 Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Patriots -3)
I have to take my chances with the Patriots to win and cover in Super Bowl 51. If not for a couple of crazy catches, New England would be 6-0 in Super Bowls under Brady and Belichick. The Patriots ability to gameplan for teams is something that doesn't get enough credit. There's so much hype around the Falcons offense, but I wouldn't be shocked at all if Belichick devised some kind of gameplan here to limit Atlanta and potentially turn this into a lopsided final. So much attention is being paid to the Falcons offense, I think it's Atlanta's defense that should be the focus, as I just don't see them being able to keep this Patriots offense in check. Give me New England -3!
|01-22-17||Packers v. Falcons -5.5||Top||21-44||Win||100||5 h 18 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Falcons -5.5)
It's been a great run for Aaron Rodgers and the Packers, but I think the fun stops here for Green Bay. Atlanta isn't just favored here so the public can cash in all their bets on the Packers. This line really tells you what the sharps think of this matchup and I couldn't agree more. This Falcons team just don't get the respect they deserve and I see them having no problem winning here by at least a touchdown. The offense should be able to have their way against a depleted Green Bay defense, who is going to struggle with all the matchup problems the Falcons present. Atlanta can also control the clock and keep Rodgers off the field if need by. Most importantly, I think Falcons head coach Dann Quinn is going to put together a gameplan here to keep Greeen Bay's offense from going off. Keep in mind the Packers offense really struggled in the 2nd half against Dallas. Give me the Falcons -5.5!
|01-07-17||Raiders v. Texans -3.5||Top||14-27||Win||100||25 h 45 m||Show|
50* NFL Wild Card Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Texans -3.5)I think the fact that Houston is regarded as one of the worst teams to be in the playoffs, all the hate for Osweiler and how in love the public has been with the Raiders this season is creating some great value here. I was all over the Broncos in Week 17 and was shocked when the line moved in favor of the Raiders with Derek Carr being out. That was with backup Matt McGloin taking over. Now he’s out and Oakland has to turn to 3rd string rookie Conner Cook, who will be making his first career start. The Raiders offense couldn’t do anything against Denver and I think it’s going to be the same story here against a very talented Houston defense. Keep in mind the Broncos were missing some big pieces on defense in that game. Oakland ended up with just 221 yards and 11 first downs. The key here is that this is a defense he can exploit. The Raiders defense is awful and had it not been for Carr saving them in the majority of their wins, they wouldn’t have even sniffed the playoffs. Houston was a good team at home and I think Houston wins here by a touchdown easy and wouldn’t be shocked if it’s the biggest blowout on Wild Card weekend. Give me the Texans -3.5!
|01-01-17||Cowboys v. Eagles -4.5||Top||13-27||Win||100||25 h 8 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Eagles -4.5)
I absolutely love the value here with the Eagles in this one. Dallas is treating this like a Week 1 preseason game (resting guys, only playing starters for a series or two). I know the Eagles are favored, but I don't think by near enough given the circumstances. This game means absolutely nothing to the Cowboys and the only thing on the coaches and players minds is to make sure no one gets hurt. They are going to keep things very vanilla and get the scrubs in as quickly as possible. The reason the line isn't bigger, is because there's so many public Cowboys backers out there that will bet them regardless of the situation. Philadelphia has shown they aren't going to just lay down and quit because their season didn't go as planned. I think this one is going to get ugly in a hurry and even if Dallas keeps it close early, they should pull away in the 2nd half. Give me the Eagles -4.5!
|12-25-16||Broncos v. Chiefs -3.5||Top||10-33||Win||100||10 h 19 m||Show|
50* NFL Vega Sharp Money Top Play (Chiefs -3.5)
I look for KC to lay it on the Broncos in this one. Kansas City might already be in the playoffs by the time this game starts, but they still desperately want to win here. With Oakland losing Carr to injury, they still have a realistic shot of winning the division and getting a first round (need to win out and have OAK lose at DEN next week). The Chiefs are also the better team in this one and have a massive homefield advantage and it's going to feel like a playoff game at Arrowhead tonight. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|12-24-16||Bengals v. Texans -1||Top||10-12||Win||100||28 h 19 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Game of the Year (Texans -1)I absolutely love the value here with the Texans, as I think this is a huge letdown spot for Cincinnati and won’t be surprised if they don’t show up at all in this one. The thing is the Bengals have been playing really well leading up to this game. They only lost by 5 at Baltimore, won by double-digits at home over the Eagles and Browns and then had the Steelers on the ropes last week. The thing is they still had an outside shot at the playoffs for a good chunk of those and there was zero chance they weren’t going to show up against Pittsburgh at home, given how much they hate the Steelers and the impact a loss could have on Pittsburgh’s playoff chances. I believe the Bengals treated that game against the Steelers as it if was their Super Bowl. I just don’t see them being interested in all in this game against Houston, especially given it’s on Christmas Eve. I just see them going through the motions and worrying more about getting home to spend Christmas with their families. On the flip side of this, I also really like the Texans making the move to bench Brock Osweiler in favor of Tom Savage. You could see a renewed sense of life with Houston when Savage came in and started picking apart the Jaguars last week, rallying them from an early 0-13 deficit to a huge 21-20 win. DeAndre Hopkins, who had been a huge letdown this year, finished with 8 catches for 87 yards, speaking volumes to how bad Osweiler was. With the way this team can play defense, this move could make Houston a legit sleeper in the AFC. Either way, I think they are poised to lay in on the Bengals in this one. Give me the Texans -1!
|12-22-16||Giants v. Eagles UNDER 42.5||Top||19-24||Loss||-110||8 h 45 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 42.5)
I think we are going to see an offensive struggle tonight between the Giants and Eagles. New York's defense has been playing lights out of late and should have no problem keeping this slumping Philadelphia offense in check. New York's offense looks good on paper with Manning and Beckham, but they are only scoring 19.4 ppg on the season and just 17.3 ppg on the road. I know the Eagles are out of the playoff race, but I think they show up here at home in a prime time game on the defensive side of the ball. Give me the UNDER 42.5!
|12-19-16||Panthers v. Redskins OVER 50.5||Top||26-15||Loss||-108||9 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -Panthers/Redskins Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (OVER 50.5)
I believe we are going to see a lot of scoring take place on Monday Night Football. Washington's got an explosive offense that comes in averaging 27.5 ppg at home. This is also an ideal matchup for the Redskins pass-happy attack. Washington has the 2nd ranked passing attack in the league and will be facing a Panthers defense that is 30th versus the pass. Carolina also isn't a good defensive team on the road, giving up 32.5 ppg. On the flip side of this, the Panthers have a strong offense and will be facing a very suspect Redskins defense that ranks 22nd against the run and 24th against he pass. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-18-16||Colts v. Vikings -4.5||Top||34-6||Loss||-110||20 h 18 m||Show|
50* NFL -Colts/Vikings Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Vikings -4.5)
The Vikings will be welcoming back Adrian Peterson to the offense and I expect him to have a big impact right away. Especially against a Colts defense that struggles against the run. Indianapolis had a chance to take control of the AFC South last week and weren't able to get it done. This Minnesota team reminds me a lot of the Texans, who are elite defensively. The Vikings are also a much better team at home and with how much this game means to them, I look for Minnesota to pull away for an easy win and cover. Give me the Vikings -4.5!
|12-11-16||Redskins v. Eagles +2||Top||27-22||Loss||-105||21 h 41 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Eagles +2)
The books are begging for you to take the Redskins as a small road favorite here, which only strengthens how much I like the Eagles at home in this one. Philadelphia has been so bad on the road, people forget this team is 4-1 at home this season. They are going to want revenge here against a division rival after losing in Washington earlier this season and I like their chances. Washington hasn't been playing all that great of late and the injuries are starting to pile up on both sides of the ball. This is a statement game for the Eagles, who not only want to damper Washington's playoff hopes, but snap a 4-game losing streak in the series. Last time out the Redskins gave up 31 to a Cardinals offense that had been struggling, so there's every reason to believe Wentz and the Eagles offense can get rolling. Adding to that, Washington is just 2-8 ATS in their last 30 after giving up 30 or more points. You also can't overlook this being the Redskins 3rd straight on the road, which is one of the more difficult tasks to overcome in the NFL, especially this late in the season. Give me the Eagles +2!
|12-08-16||Raiders v. Chiefs -3||Top||13-21||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Chiefs -3)
Kansas City is sick and tired of not getting the respect they deserve and will be out to make a statement at home against the Raiders tonight. A team they beat pretty convincingly in Oakland earlier this season. The key thing here is the Chiefs are as healthy as they have been in quite a while and have a big advantage here playing at home on short rest in one of the toughest venues for opposing teams to play well. On top of that, the conditions here favor KC, as it's going to be one of the more colder home games in Chiefs history. I look for KC defense to be the difference in this one, while Alex Smith and a very underrated offense take advantage of a very suspect Raiders defense. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|12-04-16||Giants +6.5 v. Steelers||Top||14-24||Loss||-110||24 h 55 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Giants +6.5)
The public loves to back the Steelers and the books have definitely inflated this line to counter some of the action they know they are going to get on Pittsburgh. I'll gladly take advantage and back the Giants in this spot. New York isn't just capable of keeping this game close enough to cover, they can easily win this game outright. New York is playing with all kind of confidence right now, as they come into this game having won 6 straight and the pressure is on to keep winning with Dallas refusing to slip up. I really like the matchups for the Giants in this one. I think their front four can get pressure on Roethlisberger and they have the talent in the secondary to counter Pittsburgh's weapons at the skill positions. On the flip side of things, I don't think Pittsburgh has anyone in their secondary who can stop Odell Beckham Jr. Look for Manning to have a big game here and put the pressure on the Steelers at home. Give me the Giants +6.5!
|12-01-16||Cowboys -3 v. Vikings||Top||17-15||Loss||-110||9 h 49 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Cowboys -3)
I'll gladly back Dallas as a mere 3-point road favorite against the Vikings. The Cowboys are arguably playing the best football of any team in the league, as they come in having won 9 straight and have proven themselves against quality teams. Minnesota on the other hand is on a free fall and are simply no where close to the team that started out 5-0, yet they are getting treated like it with this line. I know it's a big home game for the Vikings, but the offense is a complete mess and the defense hasn't been nearly as dominant as it was early in the year. Dallas' offensive line will be able to have their way here and I wouldn't be shocked if they won this one going away. Give me the Cowboys -3!
|11-27-16||Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 40.5||Top||14-19||Win||100||21 h 48 m||Show|
50* AFC North Total of the Month (Under 40.5)
This has all the makings of a low-scoring AFC North defensive showdown. The Ravens only come in scoring 19.9 ppg and will struggle to score here against the Bengals. Cincinnati's season is on the line here and I expect an all out effort here from the defense, as the know they have to play well for them to have a chance in this game. That's because the offense is going to have a tough time moving the ball. Cincinnati will be without star wide out A.J. Green, who is the one player this offense couldn't afford to lose and it's clear Dalton is not the same QB without him on the field. They also lost running back Giovani Bernard, who has been a big weapon for Dalton out of the backfield when he's under pressure. Even with those two, this offense figured to be in for a long day, as they are going up against an elite Ravens defense. Give me the UNDER 40.5!
|11-24-16||Steelers v. Colts UNDER 48||Top||28-7||Win||100||22 h 36 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (UNDER 48)
I just think we are getting too much value here to pass up on the UNDER with the total sitting at 48. The Colts are going to struggle to do much of anything offensively without Luck under center. Their only chance of keeping this game competitive is to try and get something going in the running game to control the time possession and keep Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense off the field. I also don't think people realize that Pittsburgh's offense isn't nearly as effective on the road as it is at home. The Steelers are only averaging 18.8 ppg on the road this season. The Colts defense knows they have to play well here and playing at home in a prime time game should have them a notch or two better than what we would normally see on a given Sunday. Give me the UNDER 48!
|11-21-16||Texans +6 v. Raiders||Top||20-27||Loss||-115||10 h 9 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Texans +6)
I just don't think the Raiders are going to be able to continue to have the same success they have enjoyed earlier in the season. Oakland is getting treated like an elite team when they shouldn't be. They just as easily could be sitting with 6 losses, as they have had some great fortune in close games. I also don't trust their defense and it's only a matter of time before their inability to stop the opposition bites them. I believe it starts tonight against the Texans, who clearly are limited on the offensive side of the ball, but talented enough to take advantage of what Oakland will put out on the field. I know the Texans don't have J.J. Watt on defense, but I still like the talent on that side of the ball. Give me Houston +6!
|11-20-16||Bucs v. Chiefs -7.5||Top||19-17||Loss||-101||88 h 25 m||Show|
50* NFL Non-Conference Game of the Month (Chiefs -7.5)
I think we are going to get a breakout performance from the Chiefs at home against the Bucs on Sunday. While KC has won 5 straight, there's no denying they haven't played anywhere close to their potential the last two weeks against the Jaguars and Panthers. I believe the fact that the Chiefs have a tendency to win ugly has kept them from being overvalued, as I actually think they should be a bigger favorite than they are here. If the season ended today the Chiefs would be the No. 2 seed in the AFC and this line doesn't feel like they are getting treated with that kind of respect. Tampa Bay is not a good team and I look for them to come out flat after a comfortable 3-game homestand. This is also a great matchup for the Chiefs, as their defense should be able to give an inconsistent Jameis Winston trouble, especially with Justin Houston back in action. At the same time, KC's offense should be able to exploit a bad Tampa Bay defense that ranks in the bottom 10 in the league against both the run and the pass. Chiefs are 4-0 at home, where they are outscoring teams by nearly 10-ppg and I expect an easy double-digit win here. Give me Kansas City -7.5!
|11-14-16||Bengals -1 v. Giants||Top||20-21||Loss||-100||8 h 17 m||Show|
50* NFL Vegas Sharp Money Top Play (Bengals -1)
I just think this Bengals team is a lot better than they are getting credit for right now and the Giants aren't as good as what people make them out to be. I wasn't the least bit surprised to see the big money flip this line to Cincinnati as the 1-point favorite after the Giants opened as the favorite (public on NY). I look for the Bengals offense to have their way in this one, and while the defense hasn't played great, I feel like this is a great matchup, as New York offers almost no threat of a running game. On top of that, Cincinnati has a big edge here coming off their bye, giving them two weeks to put together a gameplan for Eli and OBJ. Give me the Bengals -1!
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