|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|10-22-18||Giants +4.5 v. Falcons||Top||20-23||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Giants +4.5)
For me, I just think the Falcons are a team the Giants can have a lot of success against. Atlanta’s defense just hasn’t been the same since they lost two of their star players in linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Prior to giving up 29 points to the Bucs last week, the Falcons had allowed at least 37 in each of their previous 3 games, including 40+ to both the Saints and Steelers. Atlanta comes into this game ranked 31st in the league, giving up 32.0 ppg and 30th in total defense, allowing 417.1 ypg.
Opposing teams have been able to do whatever they want against this defense, as the Falcons are 24th against the run (121.3 ypg) and 29th against the pass (295.8 ypg). As much as the Giants offense has struggled, this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Saquon Barkley to put up monster numbers in this one and for Eli Manning to have one of his better games.
Not to make excuses for New York’s 1-5 start, but it certainly hasn’t been the easiest of schedules over their first 6 games. Their 3 home games have all come against playoff teams from last year in the Jaguars, Saints and Eagles and there’s nothing easy about their 3 road games against the Cowboys, Texans and Panthers. The rest of the schedule is very manageable for the Giants and with no team running away with the NFC East, I still think this team has a pulse and are going to lay it all on the line in this one.
I also like the matchup here for the Giants defense. Atlanta’s really struggled to get their run game going and while the numbers aren’t great, New York is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts. In comparison, the Falcons defense is allowing opposing QBs to complete 70.4% of their attempts. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Atlanta’s high-powered passing attack, but I think they can make enough stops and score enough points to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but win it outright.
The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 30 or more points. Giants are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 off a double-digit home loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me the Giants +4.5!
|10-21-18||Bengals v. Chiefs -5.5||Top||10-45||Win||100||33 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home. While both teams are fresh off crushing losses in Week 6, I think the Bengals are going to have the much harder time bouncing back. Cincinnati desperately wanted to beat the Steelers and snap that 5-game losing streak to Pittsburgh. To lose the way they did, where they felt like they had won the game, only magnifies the loss.
As for the Chiefs loss at New England, there just wasn’t the same vibe, even though the way they loss was very similar. That felt more like a win for Kansas City. Not many teams can rally from a 24-9 deficit on the road against the Patriots and take a lead in the 4th quarter. I think that loss really showed this team what they are capable of and they now have the belief that this whole Super Bowl thing is well within their reach.
With all that said, I would have leaned towards taking the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown before last week’s outcome. What a lot of people overlook with Kansas City’s 5-1 start, is they have only played two home games. Both of which they won by double-digits and had commanding leads. They were 35-10 at the half against the 49ers at home in Week 3 and 20-0 on the Jaguars a couple weeks back.
The Chiefs have one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL and Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being a prime time game under the lights. While the offense has proven it can play anywhere at any time, I think playing at home really helps out a defense that has struggled.
Another promising sign for the Chiefs defense is the Bengals’ offense managed just 275 yards at home against a Steelers defense that hasn’t played a whole lot better than Kansas City’s defense early on. I think some of that is just the limitations of Cincinnati’s offense with Andy Dalton and some of it’s the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball.
As for the Chiefs offense, I think we have seen enough of Patrick Mahomes and this talented set of skill players to know they aren’t going anywhere. I think Kansas City is going to easily put up 30+ points on the board and that should be more than enough to cash in a win and cover against a physically and emotionally drained Bengals team. Give me the Chiefs -5.5!
|10-21-18||Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5||17-20||Win||100||28 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 41.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 41.5, as I just think we have to limited offenses going up against two really good defenses.
I know the Cowboys just put up 40 points on what many feel is one of the best defenses in the NFL, but Jacksonville was a bit banged up defensively and it really did nothing to change my perception of this Dallas offense. Almost all of the damage came via the running game, as Prescott was just 17 of 27 for 183 yards. The Cowboys are simply one-dimensional and when they struggle to get the running game points are going to be very hard to come by.
Washington has been outstanding against the run this season. The Redskins rank 6th in the NFL, giving up just 90.2 ypg and the most they have allowed in any single game is 104 yards, so they have been very consistent at shutting down the opposing teams running attack. The only team to score more than 21 points against Washington is the Saints, who absolutely torched them through the air. That’s not a concern with Prescott and the Cowboys 29th ranked passing attack, which has topped 200 yards passing just once all season.
It’s a very similar story with Washington’s offense, which has really struggled to get into any kind of rhythm with Alex Smith at quarterback. It’s not that Smith has played bad, he’s just limited with what he can do. The biggest difference between Smith with the Redskins and Smith with the Chiefs, is he doesn’t have the brilliant Andy Reid calling the plays. Washington is 25th in the NFL in total offense (344 ypg) and 24th in scoring (21.2 ppg).
I have hard time seeing them figuring things out against a Dallas defense that is playing lights out to start the 2018 season. The Cowboys come in 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 8th against the pass (224.5 ypg). They are also 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.2 ppg.
Add in this being a division matchup, where there’s a lot of familiarity between both teams and the winner of this one guaranteed to be in at least a share of 1st place in the NFC East after Sunday, I don’t see this one getting to 40 points. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|10-21-18||Panthers v. Eagles -5||Top||21-17||Loss||-110||24 h 19 m||Show|
50* PANTHERS/EAGLES NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Eagles -5)
I'll take my chances laying the points with the Eagles at home in this one. While this will surely be the public side, I think the Eagles are still a little undervalued from their sluggish start to the season. Keep in mind that prior to the easy cover over the Giants, Philadelphia was just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their previous 4 games.
I also think there’s the thought process out there that the win over the Giants is nothing to get excited about with how bad New York has been playing. I’m not saying the Giants are a good football team, but to go on the road and beat a division rival by 21 points is not easy to do, especially on a short week of rest.
I wasn’t all that surprised to see the Eagles get off to a slow start, as there’s not the same sense of urgency to start a new season after winning the Super Bowl the previous year. Plus, Carson Wentz missed the first couple games because of injury and it was going to take some time before he returned to that MVP form. Wentz has got better and better with each start. He was 26 of 36 for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Giants and would have thrown for more if the score wasn’t so lopsided. He’s now thrown for 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his last 3 starts.
I look for Wentz to have a big day here against a Carolina secondary that has struggled when up against a legit passing attack. A couple weeks ago they gave up 382 passing yards to the Giants. The week before that they gave up 330 to Andy Dalton and the Bengals.
I just don’t see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense being able to keep pace. Carolina’s offense is built around their run game and that’s evident by the fact they come in ranked 4th in the league in rushing (139.4 ypg) compared to 26th in passing (222.4 ypg). The Eagles aren’t a defense you want to have to pick up yards against on the ground. Philadelphia is 2nd in the league, giving up just 79.8 ypg and that’s with them allowing 147 to the Giants last week.
More than anything, I just love how the Eagles responded with their backs against the wall and I think that’s something they are going to build off of. I have a really hard time seeing them go back to how they played early on. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and I fully expect them to play like it the rest of the way. Give me the Eagles -5.
|10-21-18||Patriots -2.5 v. Bears||38-31||Win||100||24 h 12 m||Show|
40* NFL EARLY BIRD VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Patriots -2.5)
I'll take my chances with the Patriots laying less than a field goal on the road against the Bears. I just don't know how you don't take New England at this price, no matter the circumstances. I know that the Pats will likely be without Gronkowski, but with Josh Gordon becoming more and more of a factor in the offense and how Brady can pick teams apart with Julian Edelman and his backs coming out of the backfield, I think New England's offense will be able to do enough to get the win.
The key here is I think Bill Belichick and that Patriots defense is going to make life miserable for Mitch Trubisky. If you take away the 6 TD performance against an awful Bucs defense, Trubisky has just 5 TD passes in his other 4 games combined. I just think he's a very limited quarterback at this point in his career and with the way NE can disguise their defense, I think he's going to cost this team a chance to win.
I love this Bears defense, but I think they are getting a little too much respect right now. Chicago's defense is really good, but they also have played a really easy schedule. Their 5 games have been against the Packers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Bucs and Dolphins. Green Bay is maybe the only potential playoff team out of that bunch. This is a big step up in class and I'm taking the team laying less than a field goal that has the far superior quarterback and coach. Give me the Patriots -2.5!
|10-21-18||Bills v. Colts -7||5-37||Win||100||24 h 8 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Colts -7)
I'll take my chances here with the Colts laying just a touchdown at home against the Bills. I think the only thing that is keeping this line from being more is the fact that Indianapolis comes into this game at just 1-5. The thing is, if you have watched the Colts, you know they are better than their record.
They have a couple of losses where they blew leads and others where they just missed out on a chance to win late. Not to mention they have had a difficult schedule to start the year with 4 of their first 6 on the road.
The good thing about the Colts being 1-5, is we can bank on them laying it all on the line at home in this game, as they have to feel like their season is on the line with this game. A loss here and it's time to start thinking about next year. I expect them to step up to the challenge and deliver in a big way.
I think due to the Colts struggles defensively, people are just assuming the Bills are going to be able to put up points. I'm not buying it. Buffalo is starting Derek Anderson at quarterback, who they just signed a couple weeks ago and hasn't started in the NFL since 2016. There's going to be zero chemistry with that offense and it's already one of the least talented units in the league. Buffalo has scored fewer than 14 points in 4 of their 6 games. Give me the Colts -7!
|10-20-18||Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -12.5||Top||7-14||Loss||-105||26 h 43 m||Show|
50* NCAAF PRE-BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (Kentucky -12.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kentucky covering at home against Vanderbilt. I just don't think line is anywhere close to enough for this matchup. I don't having their perfect 5-0 start snapped in an overtime loss at Texas A&M is going keep this Wildcats team from returning right to the form that saw them open up 5-0 with a win at Florida and home wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina. They beat all 3 of those teams by double-digits. They could barely move the football against Texas A&M and still had a legit shot at winning the game. I had the Aggies in that game, as I just didn't know how Kentucky was going to be able to move the ball with how much they rely on the run and how good Texas A&M is at stopping it. Not to mention how hard it is to play at Texas A&M under the lights on Saturday night. Now it's Kentucky under the lights at home against a Vandy team that had Florida on the ropes and proceeded to get outscored 34-3. I just think they caught Florida sleepwalking through the start of that game. This team lost by 28 at Georgia and 23 at home to South Carolina. I think motivated Kentucky team, coming off a bye will be too much for the Commodores to handle. Give me the Wildcats -12.5!
|10-20-18||Colorado +17.5 v. Washington||Top||13-27||Win||100||22 h 39 m||Show|
50* NCAAF UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colorado +17.5)
I'l take my chances here with Colorado as a 3-score underdog against the Huskies. I just feel Washington is going to have a really tough time bouncing back from that crushing overtime loss to Oregon. The Huskies had their chances to seal the win in regulation. They passed up on a field goal to take a 3-point lead, going for it and failing to covert on 4th & 1 from the Oregon 26 early in the 4th quarter. After the defense forced Oregon to punt, Washington again drove it into Ducks territory, only this time to miss a short 37-yard field goal as time expired.That loss on it’s own would be tough for any team to bounce back from, but that’s not all the Huskies have to overcome. The loss to Oregon all but closed the door on the Huskies hopes of making the 4-team playoff. After losing their opener to Auburn, they basically had to win out to have a shot. When your entire focus is on winning the national title, it can be really tough for teams to come to grips with the fact that goal is no longer within reach.It’s why I not only like Colorado to cover the number, but give them a shot at pulling off the upset. The Buffaloes only won 5 games last year, so a loss to USC on the road is not going to derail the spirits of this team. I certainly don’t think they are going to come out flat against Washington. A team they have not beaten since they made the switch from the Big 12 to the Pac-12 back in 2011.This is also a very talented Buffaloes team that even if Washington had won last week against the Ducks, I would strongly consider taking at this price. While the offense struggled against the Trojans, the defense played well, limiting USC to just 334 yards and 16 first downs.
Another thing to keep in mind with Colorado’s poor offensive showing against USC, is the Buffaloes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they had 275 or fewer total yards. I think the books have once again undervalued this team in this spot. Give me the Buffaloes +17.5!
|10-20-18||NC State v. Clemson -16.5||7-41||Win||100||22 h 34 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Clemson -16.5)
I got no problems following trends with proven results and this play falls into one that hasn't lost in two decades. Favorites of two touchdowns or more against an undefeated team of 5-0 or better are perfect 8-0 ATS going back to 1994. I'll gladly take my chances here with Clemson making it 9-0. This Tigers team hasn't played anywhere close to their full potential early on. I think they are close and their 63-3 win on the road against Wake Forest was as impressive as it gets. They outgained the Demon Deacons 698 to 249. I know NC State has played Clemson close the last two times, but I just don't this Wolfpack team is anywhere close to as good as they were in those matches. Their best wins are home victories against Virginia and Boston College and they only beat the Eagles by 5. They haven't seen anything close to an offense as talented as Clemson and I got a feeling after that Wake Forest game, this Tigers defense is fed up with people saying they are underachieving and will be out to make a statement. Give me Clemson -16.5!
|10-20-18||North Carolina +10.5 v. Syracuse||37-40||Win||100||19 h 31 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (UNC +10.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels as a double-digit road dog against the Orange. North Carolina should have beat Virginia Tech last week. The Tar Heels led 16-7 midway thru the 3rd quarter and still had a 19-14 advantage late in the 4th, before giving up a TD with 19 seconds left to lose 22-19. UNC outgained a good Hokies team 522 to 375. I think they come into this game with a ton of confidence on offense and the Orange are a defense they can exploit. Syracuse is 96th in the country against the run and 69th agains the pass. It's not that I don't think the Orange are a bad team, but I think they are still overvalued from that 4-1 ATS start, which included that close call against Clemson. They followed it up with a loss to Pitt and the 4 wins are nothing to get excited about. They played Clemson close last year and followed it up by losing their final 5 games. They should be favored at home over UNC, but not by double-digits, as the Tar Heels could easily win this outright. Give me North Carolina +10.5!
|10-20-18||Cincinnati v. Temple -160||17-24||Win||100||18 h 6 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD MONEY LINE MASSACRE (Temple -160)
I'll take my chances here with Temple. More times than not when you have ranked team that is getting points, the other side is the way to go. We have cashed in this exact scenario each of the last two weeks. Two week ago we had Texas A&M as a home favorite against No. 13 Kentucky and the Aggies won and covered. Last week it was USC who was a home favorite over No. 19 Colorado. Both times the ranked road underdog came in undefeated. Same thing here with No. 20 Cincinnati (6-0). The Bearcats 6-0 start is a direct result of their schedule. The opponents they have played are giving up 39.4 ppg and 517 ypg, which is interesting to note, as the Bearcats only average 38.3 ppg and 468 ypg. Temple got off to a bad start, but have been playing really well of late. They are 4-1 in their last 5 with road wins at Maryland and Navy. I think the Owls are the better team by even more than the number, but I'll gladly lay a little extra juice for them to have to just win outright. Give me Temple -160!
|10-19-18||Air Force -9.5 v. UNLV||41-35||Loss||-110||10 h 47 m||Show|
40* AIR FORCE/UNLV FRIDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Air Force -9.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Falcons laying less than double-digits against the Rebels. The matchup here heavily favors Air Force.
I also think we are getting a shorter number, due to this being a potential trap game for the Falcons off the big game against San Diego State and a home game against Boise State looming next week. Had they pulled off the win over the Aztecs I might by this being a flat spot, but with a 2-4 record, Air Force needs this game if they want a legit shot at becoming bowl eligible.
Offensively, these are two very similar teams in terms of how the majority of their yards are produced. Air Force is 13th in the country in rushing (248.3 ypg) and just 126th in passing (106.8 ypg). UNLV is 8th in the country in rushing (257.2 ypg) and 124th in passing (123.7 ypg). Neither team offers much in terms of passing, but Air Force has been the more effective of the two when throwing. The Falcons average 7.3 yards/pass attempt, where the Rebels only average 4.8 yards/pass attempt.
You have to think given the numbers, that the team who has the better success establishing the run will have the edge in this game. As far as which of these two teams is better at stopping the run, it’s not even close. Air Force is 8th in the nation, giving up just 101.2 rushing yards/game and are holding teams to 3.2 yards/carry. UNLV on the other hand is 104th in the country against the run, allowing 199 ypg and are giving up 5.2 ypc. Note that Air Force dominated a run-heavy team in Navy, beating the Midshipmen 35-7 as a 2-point underdog.
I just think that due to the fact that both teams are sitting with a record of 2-4, we are seeing a much lower number than we should, as I think Air Force is without a doubt the superior team. The Falcons have 3 road losses against the likes of FAU, Utah State and San Diego State. UNLV’s only two wins are against UTEP and Prairie View and just a couple weeks ago lost at home to New Mexico by 36 points. I just don’t feel like it’s asking a lot for Air Force to win here by two touchdowns. Give me the Falcons -9.5!
|10-18-18||Stanford v. Arizona State +3||Top||20-13||Loss||-120||10 h 14 m||Show|
50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Arizona St +3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Sun Devils as a home dog. I just feel the value here is clearly with Arizona State, as Stanford has no business being a road favorite against the Sun Devils.
For me, I just don’t trust this Cardinal offense. With or without Bryce Love, Stanford has struggled to run the football. The Cardinal are 127th in the country in rushing at 85.7 ypg. In their last game against the Utes, they managed just 42 yards on 28 attempts. K.J. Costello threw for 381 yards, but had two interceptions and a lost fumble.
That struggling Stanford offense will be up against a talented Arizona State defense, that has not allowed a single team to score more than 28 points against them all season. A pretty impressive feat given they have played the likes of Michigan State, Washington, San Diego State and Colorado.
The only one of those that came at home was against the Spartans and they held them to just 13 points. Their run defense at home has been outstanding, as they are giving up just 2.9 yards/carry. They should be able to make Stanford one dimensional and the entire unit should feed off a rowdy home crowd under the lights.
The other key here is the Arizona State offense should be able to move the ball against a Stanford defense that has been torched in their last 3 games. The Cardinal gave up 31 points (should have been more) and 524 yards to Oregon, 38 points and 550 yards to Notre Dame and 40 points and 421 yards to Utah. During this stretch they have allowed 224 yards/game on the ground. Stanford is a mere 79th in the country in total defense and 108th in total offense. That’s not the numbers you expect to see from a road favorite in a game like this.
Arizona State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss, 5-1 in their last 6 at home and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record. They are also a dominant 18-2 ATS in their last 20 vs a team that can’t run the football (90 or less yards/game). Give me the Sun Devils +3!
|10-18-18||Broncos v. Cardinals OVER 42||45-10||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
40* CARDINALS/BRONCOS TNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 42)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in this one. It’s simply asking too much for NFL players to play up to their full potential on just 3 days of rest, especially defensive guys, where energy and effort is everything on that side of the ball. The OVER is 4-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
The difficult part with the OVER in this matchup, is how bad the Cardinals offense has looked this season. I’m not saying they haven’t been bad, but I think they are going to improve quite a bit over the course of the season, as rookie quarterback Josh Rosen gets more and more comfortable. I wouldn’t be shocked if Rosen and that offense had a big day in this one.
Denver’s defense is reeling right now. After giving up 323 rushing yards to the Jets in Week 5, they gave up another 270 yards on the ground to the Rams. It’s only a matter of time before David Johnson goes off and he’s trending upwards with 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. If they can get him going, which I think they will, it’s going to make it so much easier on Rosen to make plays through the air.
It’s a similar story for Denver. While Keenum has the ability to drop back every play, their offense is working at it’s best when they get the running game going. Arizona is 31st in the league against the run (152.2 ypg). You also have to think that Cardinals defense will be dragging a bit after a very physical game against the Vikings.
Another thing to keep in mind with the short 3-day break between games, is there’s not a lot of familiarity between the two teams in these non-conference games. Just another advantage for the two offenses in this one. I’m not saying it’s going to be 34-30 shootout, but all we need is for something like 24-20 to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 42.
|10-15-18||49ers v. Packers -9||Top||30-33||Loss||-110||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Packers -9)
I'll take my chances here laying the big number here with Green Bay at home. I don’t love backing big favorites like this, but when it’s Aaron Rodgers against C.J. Beathard, I’m willing to roll the dice, especially when it’s a prime time matchup and the Packers in desperate need of a win.
It’s really a shame that Garoppolo got hurt, as this 49ers team had a ton of upside. While Kyle Shanahan is going to get the most out of what he has to work with, he’s got his hands tied with Beathard. Some times you can turnovers can be fluky, other times it’s just a result of who a team has under center. Beathard has made 2 starts and thrown 4 interceptions and fumbled 3 times (lost 2 of them).
I just don’t see it getting any better for Beathard against a Green Bay defense that is playing better than people realize. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 313.8 ypg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 2nd in the NFL, allowing just 208.8 ypg.
With the 49ers expected to be without their most explosive back in Matt Breida (averaging 7.5 yards/carry) and three starters on the offensive line questionable to play, San Francisco’s only hope of moving the ball is via the passing game. That’s a problem, as Green Bay is going to be able to unleash their pass rush (49ers allowed 18 sacks) and sit back in coverage and wait for Beathard to make a mistake.
It’s also worth pointing out that Rodgers and the Packers have been a good bet when laying a big number. Green Bay has been a favorite of 6 to 13 points 28 times with Rodgers at quarterback and are 20-8 ATS in those games. Green Bay is also 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Packers -9!
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59.5||40-43||Win||100||29 h 9 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS SNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 59.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5 on Sunday Night Football. I know this is a ridiculously high total, but with the talent these two teams have at quarterback and at the skill positions and the defenses they will be up against, I think both have a legit shot at eclipsing 30-points.
There will be plenty who point out Mahomes coming back to reality after throwing his first two interceptions of the season and failing to throw a TD pass. Was it his best game? No. The kid still threw for 313 yards on 22 of 38 passing against what most considered the best defense in the league. One that a lot of other more accomplished quarterbacks have struggled against.
KC didn’t just have 300+ yards passing on the best defense in the league, they also rushed for 126 yards. I think the Chiefs are going to continue doing exactly what they have been doing, and that’s move the football up and down the field on the Patriots. New England’s defense just doesn’t impress me. They let Blake Bortles throw for 377 yards and last week Andrew Luck had 355 yards playing with a bunch of scrubs.
As for the Chiefs defense, they were fortunate to only hold the Jaguars to 14 points, as Jacksonville moved the ball at will with 502 yards and 29 first downs. Bortles simply made a bunch of costly mistakes and the offense turned it over 5 times. KC isn’t going to get those breaks against a quarterback the likes of Tom Brady. Last week the Patriots got back one of his top targets in Julian Edelman and I think this could be the game where Josh Gordon really starts to take off in that offense.
I see big plays happening at every turn and this being one of the most entertaining games of the season to date. OVER is 9-2 in Andy Reid’s last 11 games as the coach of the Chiefs when KC is a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-9 in the Patriots last 28 under Belichick at home with a total at 49.5 or more. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|10-14-18||Ravens -2.5 v. Titans||Top||21-0||Win||100||25 h 17 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Ravens laying less than a field goal on the road. The Titans come into this game with a winning record at 3-2, but they could just as easily be 0-5. All 3 of their wins have come by just 3-points. I just don't see them being able to keep winning games the way they have. Sure, the defense has been playing lights out, but this is one of the worst offenses in the league. Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 294 ypg.They have little to no threat of a passing game after losing star tight end Delanie Walker and haven't been running the ball nearly as effective as they did a year ago. I just don't see the Titans being able to generate enough offense against this Ravens defense, which I think is one of the best in the league. Baltimore comes in ranked 5th against the run (88.4 ypg) and 4th against the pass (215.4 ypg). They also lead the league in scoring defense, allowing just 15.4 ppg.As for the Ravens' offense, I think they bounce back in a big way here after that ugly showing against the Browns. Even after scoring just 9-points against Cleveland, Baltimore is still 11th in the league in scoring at 26.4 ppg. They also sit 11th in the league in total offense, averaging 399.4 ypg.Going back to the Titans defense and it eventually falling off, they could be without one of their best players, as linebacker Wesley Woodyard is questionable with a shoulder injury. Losing Woodyard would be a big blow, as he's tied for the team lead in tackles.Another thing to note about Tennessee's defense, is they have played a bunch of teams that have struggled offensively early, as their opponents for the season are only averaging 19.3 ppg, which makes the 17.2 ppg the Titans are allowing that much less impressive.Baltimore is also a solid 16-6-4 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
|10-14-18||Steelers v. Bengals -119||28-21||Loss||-119||22 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC MONEY LINE SLAUGHTER (Bengals -119)
I'll take my chances here with the Bengals on the money line. I just feel there’s a ton of value with a home team.
The reason we are getting such great value is the Steelers are a big time public play and the public will quick to back them off that 24-point win against the Falcons. Plus, the Bengals just aren’t a team that public is drawn to, no matter what their record is.
I want to point out that I absolutely loved the Steelers at home last week against Atlanta (was my strongest play). I just loved the spot for Pittsburgh, playing at home off that ugly home loss to the Ravens. Not to mention they were catching an Atlanta team that has been decimated with injuries on the defensive side of the ball and were coming off that devastating loss at home to the Bengals.
It’s also worth pointing out that while the final score was lopsided, the Steelers only had a 381 to 324 edge in total yards and both teams ended the game with 22 first downs. I just don’t trust this team on the road. It’s no secret that Big Ben isn’t the same quarterback on the road as he is at home. The Steelers are still without one of the best backs in the league in LeVeon Bell and there just seems to be a ton of drama both inside and outside the locke room. This week it’s Antonio Brown making headlines for two lawsuits filed against him.
I know the numbers aren’t great for the Bengals defense, but I like the young talent they got on that side of the ball and let’s not overlook they played the first 4 without one of the top linebackers in the league in Vontaze Burfict. They also seem to keep making the big play when it matters the most. Not to mention the energy they will get in front of what should be an electric home crowd.
This also isn’t just another game for these two teams. There’s quite the rivalry between the two and I have to think this is one contest the Bengals have been itching to play. Cincinnati has lost each of the last 6 meetings. They know that in order to win the AFC North, they have to take care of business against this team and I just think for the first time in a few years, they are the more talented team on the field. Give me the Bengals!
|10-13-18||Colorado v. USC -7||20-31||Win||100||30 h 40 m||Show|
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS SHOCKER (USC -7)
I'll take my chances here with USC at home against Colorado. It's just a matter of principal for me. When you have an unranked team laying a touchdown against a ranked opponent, you take the favorite. We played this exact scenario and won last week with Texas A&M hosting Kentucky.
There's definitely a ton of talent at USC, but it shouldn't have come as a huge surprise they lost on the road against the likes of Stanford and Texas with the lack of experience they had on offense, especially at quarterback with true freshman J.T. Daniels starting.
I think a lot of people wrote off this USC team after those losses, but I think they are only getting better. They got back on track with a win at home over a good Washington State team and Daniels shined with 241 yards and 3 scores. They then went on the road and beat Arizona 24-20, but that's a very misleading final, as the Trojans were up 24-0 in the 2nd half.
This is a game USC has to have a legit shot at the Pac-12 South title and I think they expose this Colorado team. The Buffaloes are better than we expected, but let's not get carried away about a team that there best win is a 7-point win at home against Arizona State, where they trailed in the 4th quarter.
They have also played just 1 true road game. That was at Nebraska and they trailed 28-20 in the 2nd half, were outgained 565 to 393 and barely won 33-28. Nebraska has since lost at home to Troy, by 46 to Michigan, by 14 to Purdue and by 17 to Wisconsin.
I think Daniels and that offense are going to have a big day and a good USC defense will feed off the home crowd and slow down this overrated Buffaloes offense. Give me the Trojans -7!
|10-13-18||Wisconsin v. Michigan -9.5||Top||13-38||Win||100||27 h 2 m||Show|
50* NCAAF 'BIG TEN' GAME OF THE MONTH (Michigan -9.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Wolverines winning by double-digits at home against the Badgers. This might seem like a big number, but given the spot and how these teams matchup, I think Michigan is going to make quite the statement in their first real big game since the opener against Notre Dame.
I absolutely loves teams that have something to prove, who are playing at home in a prime time. The fans just take it to a different level when the game is played under the lights. I also think that while Wisconsin is a good team, they aren't quite as good as everyone thought. They were fortunate to win at Iowa and lost at home to a pretty average BYU team.
What's even more concerning for me is how the defense just gave up 24 points and over 500 yards to Nebraska at home. The same Cornhuskers team that managed only 10 points and 132 yards at Michigan a couple weeks earlier. The injuries have really mounted up in the secondary for the Badgers and Nebraska's true freshman Adrian Martinez just threw for 384 yards and a 2-0 TD-INT ratio against them last week.
I think that Michigan's defense is built to shutdown this Wisconsin offense and will be flying all over the field at home under the lights. Shea Patterson and the Wolverines offense are simply going to have the much easier time scoring. Eventually that Badgers defense is going to wear down and that's when this thing could get out of hand. Give me Michigan -9.5!
|10-13-18||UCLA v. California -6.5||37-7||Loss||-106||27 h 46 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (California -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Golden Bears winning by at least a touchdown at home. This is the ideal spot to jump on Cal, who is desperate for a win after losing two straight following their 3-0 start. On the flip side of this, I believe this is also a great time to fade UCLA. This is a huge letdown spot for the Bruins, who gave everything they had in their upset bid of Washington last week.
This team just doesn’t have the talent or experience to come off a loss like that and play well on the road, especially in what’s going to be a hostile environment with this game being a prime time matchup under the lights. The even bigger key here is we know we are going to get a max effort from Cal in this one. Something I don’t think UCLA got from the Huskies last week. It felt like Washington was content just going through the motions after building up that 17-point lead at the half.
I’ve said this numerous times when talking about UCLA, it’s only a matter of time before Kelly has that program competing for conference titles. It’s just not going to happen this year and while the team should keep improving, they simply got a long way to go before they are going to win games on the road against the team the caliber of Cal.
There’s just not a lot to like about the Bruins on either side of the football. UCLA is 101st in rushing (138.6 ypg) and 94th against the run (185.8 ypg). They are also 101st in passing (195.4 ypg) and 95th against the pass (243.8 ypg). They have the 120th ranked offense in the country and the 102nd ranked defense.
Prior to the closer than expected final against Washington, they had lost by 22 on the road to Colorado, 24 at home to Fresno State and 28 at Oklahoma. Note that awful showing at home against the Bulldogs came the following week after their big game against the Sooners, so this wouldn’t be the first time they didn’t show up after playing a Top 10 opponent.
I also feel like we are getting a bit of a discount on Cal due to the fact that they just lost outright as a favorite against a Arizona team a lot of people are down on. The thing is, the Wildcats weren’t the better team, the Golden Bears simply beat themselves. Arizona’s only points in the final 3 quarters came via interception returns for touchdowns. Cal outgained the Wildcats 476 to 265 and had a 25 to 13 edge in first downs. I know turnovers have been a problem for the Bears in 2018, but the Bruins defense has just 5 takeaways in 5 games and 3 of those came against non-Power 5 opponents.
I look for Cal to easily score 30+ points in this game and that should be more than enough to get the cover, as UCLA is averaging just 18.4 ppg and haven’t scored more than 24 in a single game all season. Give me the Golden Bears -6.5!
|10-13-18||Georgia v. LSU UNDER 51||16-36||Loss||-112||23 h 59 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO BRAINER (Under 51)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 51 in Saturday's huge SEC cross-division matchup that has No. 2 Georgia visiting No. 13 LSU. I think the only reason this total is as high as it is, is because the Bulldogs come in averaging 42.8 ppg and have scored at least 38 in every game they have played.
The thing that people don't take into account is the level of defenses that they have played. The best defense they have played is South Carolina, who doesn't rank in the Top 50 in total defense and is 98th vs the run (194 ypg).
This LSU defense is the real deal. They completely shutdown both Miami and Auburn and while they gave up 27 to Florida last week, 7 of those were a result of interception that was returned for a TD by the Gators defense. That was also on the road.
Tiger Stadium is one of the toughest places to play in the country, especially when LSU is playing well and there's a big time opponent coming to town. I expect them to give this Georgia offense fits and both teams here figure to have a hard time reaching 24 points. Give me the UNDER 51!
|10-13-18||Louisville v. Boston College -13||Top||20-38||Win||100||20 h 15 m||Show|
50* NCAAF 'ACC' GAME OF THE YEAR (Boston College -13)
I'll take my chances here with the Eagles winning by at least 2 touchdowns against Louisville. Until the books start adjusting the Cardinals to the product they are putting on the field, I'll continue to keep looking to fade this team.
I think Petrino has overstayed his welcome at Louisville and we are seeing just how much Lamar Jackson meant to that team the past couple of years. This team didn't come to play in a prime time weekday game at home, where most teams are chomping at the bit. They gave up 66 points and 542 rushing yards to a pretty mediocre Georgia Tech team.
I just don't see them wanting any part of what is going to be a pissed off Boston College team. The Eagles have lost 2 of their last 3 following a perfect 3-0 start. The most recent being a 28-23 loss at NC State. Regardless if A.J. Dillion plays, I expect the Eagles to have their way in this one.
Two years ago Louisville went into BC and laid it on the Eagles 52-7. Don't think for a second that Addazio has forgot about that game. I fully expect BC to pour it on if it gets out of hand and I think they win here by 20+ rather easy. Give me the Eagles -13!
|10-13-18||Duke +3 v. Georgia Tech||28-14||Win||100||20 h 3 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS MASSACRE (Duke +3)
I'll take my chances here with the Blue Devils getting points against the Yellow Jackets. I think Duke is the far superior team and have some massive advantages in this matchup.
The Blue Devils were 4-0 with double-digit wins on the road against Northwestern and Baylor. They also had their way with a good Army team (won 34-14). The thing is, last time out they lost by 17 as a 7-point favorite against Va Tech. That loss really hurt the perception of this team.
On the flip side, Georgia Tech just won 66-31 on the road against Louisville as a 5.5-point favorite. A game a lot of people watched, given it was played on a weekday. The game prior to that they won and covered 63-17 against Bowling Green. I think those two results have them way overvalued. Bowiling Green is awful and Louisville threw in the towel after that crushing loss to FSU. Georgia Tech has already lost twice as a small favorite this season and it's going to happen again.
I love anytime we get Duke in the role of the dog under head coach David Cutcliffe, especially on the road. Blue Devils are 12-4 in their last 16 as a dog of 7 or less on the road and a perfect 6-0 when they are a dog of 3 points or less.
I mentioned the dominant win over Army, where the held the Midshipmen to 14 points 168 rushing yards. Army runs basically the same triple-option offense as Georgia Tech and if you can stop the run against the Yellow Jackets, you can completely shut them down. Clemson held them to 146 rushing yards and they had just 7 points and less than 100 yards of offense with less than 5 minutes to play in the 3rd quarter. Give me the Blue Devils +3!
|10-13-18||Tennessee v. Auburn -14.5||30-24||Loss||-105||20 h 38 m||Show|
40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Auburn -14.5)
I'll take my chances here with Auburn getting things figured out at home against the Volunteers and I think we are getting a great price to back them. This is a big bounce-back game for the Tigers off that ugly loss at Mississippi State and this Tennessee is definitely one to let out some frustration against.
The Vols only two wins are against E Tennessee State and UTEP. They lost by 26 to West Virginia, 26 to Florida and 26 to Georgia. The last two were against the Gators and Bulldogs and I just don't see this team having any fight left in them for this game. Coming off two division games and a game at home against No. 1 Alabama (Jeremy Pruitt vs Nick Saban), this could get ugly in a hurry.
Auburn is going to want to show out offensively after scoring just 9-points against Mississippi State and Tennessee won't be able to stop them. On top of that, with how good the Tigers are defensively and how bad the Vols are offensively, Auburn is going to get to work with a lot of short fields and I would expect a defense that has forced 12 takeaways in 6 games will get at least a couple against a Tennessee offense that has turned it over 9 times in their last 3.
Note that while the Vols did cover the 31 at Georgia last week, they are a mere 1-8 ATS in their last 9 off a game where they covered. Give me the Tigers -14.5!
|10-12-18||Arizona v. Utah -13.5||10-42||Win||100||12 h 7 m||Show|
40* FRIDAY LATE NIGHT PAC-12 ATS MASSACRE (Utah -13.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Utes laying less than two touchdowns at home. I think a lot of people are going to be tempted to take Arizona at this price, as they are coming off that big upset of Cal at home and the week before lost by just 4 at home to USC. The thing is, those are two very misleading results.
Let’s start with the game against the Trojans. The final score makes it appear like Arizona was competitive, but in reality USC just let their foot off the gas. The Trojans were in complete control with a 24-0 lead in the 2nd half and outgained the Wildcats 450 to 330. As for the Cal game, the Golden Bears gave that game away. Cal had a 476 to 265 edge in total yards, but turned it over 4 times, leading to 17 of Arizona’s 24 points, with 14 points coming via interception returns for touchdowns.
I’m willing to take my chances here that Arizona isn’t as fortunate against the Utes. Utah is a team that I think is well deserving of being this big of a favorite. Their only two losses are a 21-7 defeat at home to Washington and a 24-28 loss at Washington State, where the Cougars only score in the 2nd half was a 89-yard TD strike late to give them the lead.
Having already lost two conference games, there’s no room for error for Utah if they want a chance to win the Pac-12 South, so there will be no looking past the Wildcats. On top of that, Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the more difficult places for opposing teams to play, especially when it’s a prime time game.
I also love the matchup for Utah. Arizona quarterback Khalil Tate is a much bigger threat running than he is passing and teams have really figured him out this season. For the Wildcats offense to be successful, they need to be able to run the football. That’s where this becomes a problem for Arizona, as Utah comes in ranked 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 75.4 ypg. They are holding teams to just 2.4 yards/carry and if they can take away the run, Tate is going to make mistakes in the passing game.
I also think this Utah offense is a lot better than people realize, as their offensive numbers are a bit skewed with all the strong defenses they have played. Arizona is 106th in the nation against the run (197.3 ypg) and 76th against the pass (231 ypg).
This Wildcats team is also not one you want anything to do with on the road. Arizona is a mere 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games and 1-9 ATS in their last 10 on the road after the first month of the season. They are also just 2-8ATS in their last 10 after covering the spread in their previous game and 5-14 ATS in their last 19 as an underdog. Give me the Utes -13.5!
|10-11-18||Eagles v. Giants OVER 43.5||34-13||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
40* EAGLES/GIANTS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 43.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 43.5. I just don’t think the books adjust the numbers enough for these Thursday Night games with teams playing on short rest. Defense is all about effort an energy. The players simply don’t have enough time to recover with just 3 days between games. The OVER is 3-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
Whether you were a fan of Odell Beckham Jr. calling out his team or not, it seemed to have a positive impact on their play. They played their hearts out against the Panthers and while they came up short, I think it’s something they can build on. The most important thing is they got their offense going, as they racked up 31 points and 432 total yards on a very good Carolina defense, who keep in mind had a huge edge coming off their bye.
Philadelphia’s defense just hasn’t been the same dominant unit this year. Kirk Cousins just completed 30 of 37 attempts for 301 yards and the week before Marcus Mariota went 30 of 43 for 344 yards. In Week 2, Ryan Fitzpatrick was 27 of 33 for 402 yards. Eli Manning is coming off a 326-yard performance against the Panthers and should light up the boxscore in this one.
As for the Eagles offense, I think we are dangerously close to Philadelphia exploding on that side of the ball. Carson Wentz is getting better and better and has thrown for 659 yards and 4 scores (0 interceptions) in his last two starts. The Eagles had two fumbles in Minnesota territory last week, including one inside the 10-yard line. It’s only a matter a time before the breaks go their way.
I know the Giants come into this game with the 8th ranked pass defense, giving up just 229.4 ypg, but that number is skewed a bit because of the two teams against Blake Bortles and Dak Prescott. Desean Watson carved up this secondary for 368 yards in Week 3 and I think Wentz exploits a tired Giants defense on Thursday. It’s also worth noting that with the way the Eagles are struggling to run the football, they got no choice but to air it out, which definitely plays into the game going OVER.
Simply put, I think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these two offenses have struggled early on. All we need is for something like 24-21 to cash a winning ticket and it’s worth noting that in the last 5 meetings between these two teams, they have combined for at least 43 points with 4 of the 5 eclipsing 50 points. Give me the OVER 43.5!
|10-11-18||Texas Tech v. TCU UNDER 61||Top||17-14||Win||100||9 h 31 m||Show|
50* TEXAS TECH/TCU BIG 12 TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Under 61)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 61 in Thursday's Big 12 clash between Texas Tech and TCU. I just think the public can’t help themselves when it comes to playing the OVER in games involving Texas Tech. So far it’s paid off great, as the OVER is 4-1 in the Red Raiders’ first 5 games. However, I believe the books know that’s where the money is going to come in and have inflated this number quite a bit.
Last year TCU went on the road and beat Texas Tech 27-3 for a combined score of just 30 points, which was well below the posted total for that matchup of 54. The year before that we saw a ridiculous total of 87.5 and the game ended up 27-24 for a total of just 51.
I think it’s going to be the same old story in this one. This high-powered Texas Tech offense will be up against one of the best defenses in the country. TCU ranks 35th against the run (125.6 ypg) and are 23rd vs the pass (178.0 ypg). Gary Patterson knows how to slow down this Red Raiders attack and he’s had nearly two weeks to get his defense prepared. I also think the game being played at home is huge for TCU’s defense, as they should be able to feed off the crowd.
We also don’t know who is going to be at quarterback for the Red Raiders. Week 1 starter McLane Carter is questionable with an ankle injury and his replacement, Alan Bowman is doubtful after suffering a collapsed lung against West Virginia. I believe they end up going with Jett Duffey, who replaced Bowman vs West Virginia. I think that's going to be a problem for Texas Tech. Duffey is a much bigger threat with his legs than his arm and has already thrown 3 interceptions on just 36 attempts.
TCU is also dealing with an injury to their starting quarterback, as Shawn Robinson hurt his non-throwing shoulder in the final minutes against Iowa State. Patterson has said he will be available, but may not start. Regardless of who starts, the Horned Frogs are built to run the football and one of the reasons they were able to hold Texas Tech to just 3-points last year in Lubbock, is they ran it so effectively. TCU had 204 rushing yards compared to just 85 passing (only attempted 17 passes). Patterson knows that the best way to slow down this Red Raiders offense is to keep them on the sidelines.
It’s also worth noting the UNDER is 21-6 in the Horned Frogs last 27 conference games, 11-4 in their last 15 overall and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a bye. UNDER is also 4-1 in Texas Tech’s last 5 road games and 4-1 in their last 5 vs conference foes. Give me the UNDER 61!
|10-09-18||Appalachian State -10 v. Arkansas State||35-9||Win||100||9 h 38 m||Show|
40* NCAAF TUESDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Appalachian St -10)
I'll take my chances here with Appalachian State covering as a big double-digit road favorite. When the Mountaineers nearly pulled off the upset against Penn State in Week 1 (missed a field goal to win it at the end of regulation), I credited the close game more to Penn State just not being as good this year without Saquon Barkley. More than a month down the road, we know that the Nittany Lions are one of the most talent teams in the country, which makes that performance all the more impressive, especially given it was on the road.
Since that near upset the Red Wolves have beat Charlotte 45-9, Gardner Webb 72-7 and South Alabama 52-7. I know that’s a bunch of cupcakes, but the key thing is they absolutely dominated all 3 of those teams. Arkansas State has a couple of nice wins over Tulsa and UNLV, but in their big step-up game they lost by 50 points to Alabama.
Not only do I think Appalachian State is the better team, but I think the matchup here is heavily in their favor, as I think they will dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball.
There were concerns about the Red Wolves run defense coming into this season, as they only had one starter back on the defensive line and it’s been even worse than expected. Arkansas State ranks 124th in the country, giving up 244.4 ypg. In their conference opener against Georgia Southern, they let the Eagles rush for 348 yards on 49 attempts (7.1 yards/carry). Appalachian State has one of the best offensive lines in the Sun Belt this year and are 9th in the country in rushing at 269.5 ypg.
As for the Mountaineers defense, they are giving up just 104.3 rushing yards/game (12th) and 172.0 passing yards/game (14th). They are also allowing a mere 4.0 yards/play. The final score against Penn State makes you think it was a shootout, but the Nittany Lions had just 24 points with just under 12 minutes to play in the 4th quarter. They held Trace McSorley to just 229 yards passing and Miles Sanders to a mere 91 yards on 19 carries.
This defense is the real deal and while the Red Wolves have a legit quarterback in Justice Hansen, I don’t see Arkansas State being able to keep pace offensively to keep this one competitive. Give me the Mountaineers -10.
|10-08-18||Redskins v. Saints UNDER 52.5||Top||19-43||Loss||-110||9 h 57 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/REDSKINS MNF SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Under 52.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the UNDER 52.5 on the total. I think a lot of people are going to see that games involving the Saints this year have seen an average score of 64.4 ppg and the fact that these two combined for 65 points in last year’s meeting in New Orleans and just assume this thing is going to fly over the total.
Last year’s outcome was a bit of a fluke in terms of how many points were scored. The two teams were sitting on 40 midway through the 4th quarter. That was also late in the year with the Redskins dealing with some big injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
With Alex Smith replacing Kirk Cousins, the Redskins are much more balanced and conservative offense than the previous versions under Cousins who really relied on an aggressive passing attack. The numbers back this up, as Washington finished 28th in the league in rushing last year at 90.5 ypg. While it’s still really early, they are sitting 5th in the NFL in rushing in 2018 at 137.7 ypg. When your attack is built around the ground game, you typically see a lot longer possessions and it also keeps the defense fresh.
Speaking of the Redskins defense, Washington comes into this game ranked 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 3rd agains the pass (187.3 ypg). They held Andrew Luck and the Colts to just 21 points and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers to only 17, so there’s a good chance this defense continues to shine.
As far as the Saints offense is concerned, their numbers are inflated quite a bit due to the fact that they got to play an atrocious Bucs defense and a depleted Falcons defense. I also think they are going to focus even more on the running game now that Mark Ingram is back from his 4-game suspension. I also think those struggles in the redzone that popped up last week against the Giants could play a big role in this thing staying under the mark. Give me the UNDER 52.5!
|10-07-18||Jaguars v. Chiefs -3||14-30||Win||100||19 h 50 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -3)
I'll take my chances here with KC as a slim 3-point home favorite against Jacksonville. All the talk this week is going to be around can Patrick Mahomes and that Chiefs offense continue to put up big numbers against what everyone believes is the best defense in the league. I believe he can. After what we saw last week against the Broncos, who have a pretty good defense of their own and the game being played in Denver in front of an electric crowd, there’s no way I’m betting against this kid and this team right now.
One of the things that can really frustrate a good defense is a mobile quarterback, who can make plays on the run. Time after time against the Broncos, Mahomes scrambled and made big plays on the run. He did so with a very poor game from his offensive line, though I think their struggles were in large part because of all the noise from an electric Denver home crowd. I also think watching this Jaguars defense that you can exploit them deep and Mahomes certainly has the ability to stretch a defense.
I know the numbers for the Jaguars defense are off the charts and it’s clearly a talented bunch, but they have faced two immobile quarterbacks in Eli Manning and Tom Brady, a hobbled Marcus Mariota and a rookie quarterback in Sam Darnold. Not to mention, none of those teams have the kind of playmakers that the Chiefs have at their disposal. Throw in the creativity that comes with a Andy Reid offense and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mahomes and the Chiefs just kept rolling.
The biggest thing that is going to hinder people from taking Kansas City is their defense, which has not been very good to this point. However, I think the defense isn’t as atrocious as a lot of people think. They have played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers. A Kyle Shanahan offense led by a really good quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo and a greatly improved Broncos offense under Case Keenum.
Not to mention, only one of those games came at home and the one game that was at home the defense played great early and the Chiefs had a 35-10 lead at the half. It’s no secret that Arrowhead is one of the toughest places for opposing teams to play and that noise can really help the defense out.
Let’s also not overlook the fact that the Jaguars have played 3 of their first 4 games on the road. The only game away from home was in Week 1 at New York and the offense for Jacksonville wasn’t all that great, scoring just 13 points (defense had a pick six) and managed 305 yards. Adding to this, the Jaguars are a mere 13-33 on the road with Blake Bortles as their starting quarterback and just 5-22 as a road dog. With a spread of just 3-points, we are basically picking the winner here. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|10-07-18||Falcons v. Steelers -3||Top||17-41||Win||100||19 h 49 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Steelers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Steelers laying just a field goal at home against Atlanta. I think this is the perfect time to buy low on the Steelers, who I feel should be laying more than a field goal at home against the Falcons.
Every year there’s a team that just gets unlucky with the injury bug and Atlanta is definitely that team to start out 2018. The Falcons lost two of their best defensive players to season-ending injuries in the same game with free safety Keanu Neal and linebacker Deion Jones both going down in Week 1. They have since lost starting strong safety Ricardo Allen and left guard Andy Levitre to IR. If that wasn’t bad enough, defensive end Derrick Shelby, defensive end Vic Beasley, corner Justin Bethel and defensive tackle Grady Jarrett are all listed as questionable to play against Pittsburgh.
I know the Steelers defense has struggled, but they don’t have to play great here for Pittsburgh to win this game. Ben Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense should have a field day against this Falcons defense, which has given up 70 points in their last two games. On top of that, Atlanta is just 8-20 ATS under head coach Dan Quinn vs teams with a quarterback that is completing 61% or more of their pass attempts.
You also have to keep in mind that Atlanta’s offense is built to play inside a dome. So while they have scored 30+ in each of their last 3 games, all 3 have come at home. Their only road game was a Week 1 matchup at Philadelphia and the offense managed just 12 points and 299 total yards. I’m not saying Pittsburgh’s defense will hold them under 20 points, but I think they make enough stops here to let their offense create some separation.
Let’s also not overlook just how difficult a spot this is for the Falcons emotionally off those two losses to the Saints and Bengals. Those are the toughest kind of defeats to bounce back from, especially on the road against a talented team like Pittsburgh.
As for the Steelers coming off that loss to the Ravens. Pittsburgh is 13-5 ATS under Mike Tomlin after an upset loss as a home favorite and going back even further are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 home games off an upset loss to a division opponent. Give me the Steelers -3!
|10-07-18||Packers +106 v. Lions||23-31||Loss||-100||19 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Packers +106)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Green Bay winning this game outright. It’s not been an ideal start to the season for Green Bay, but they are coming off their best showing of the season in their win over Buffalo at home last week. Even though the public is going to be all over the Packers, I just get the feeling this team is a bit undervalued right now.
The biggest thing that people will focus on that like Detroit in this spot, is the fact that the Packers lost 31-17 in their only road game of the season at Washington and last time we saw the Lions play at home they laid it on Brady and the Patriots.
The one thing you have to keep in mind with Green Bay’s poor showing against the Redskins, is they were coming off that crazy tie against the Vikings at home, where they felt cheated after an interception that would have sealed the win was negated because of a questionable roughing the passer penalty. I feel they simply came out flat against Washington and let’s not forget that tie had a similar effect on the Vikings, who got routed at home by the Bills in their next game.
As for the Lions win over New England. That was an ideal situation for Detroit to pull off the upset. The players played their hearts out for their new head coach against his former team and the home crowd was electric with the game being played on Sunday Night Football. Matt Patricia, who spent all those years going up against Brady and that New England offense put together a masterful gameplan in that win.
That’s their only win on the season. While they lost by just 3-points at San Francisco, they trailed by 17 in the 4th quarter. Sure they could have won at Dallas, but there’s nothing to be excited about playing the Cowboys tough with how they have looked early. Plus, they gave up 414 yards to a Cowboys team that hadn’t gained more than 303 yards in any of their first 3 games. Not to mention that loss to the Jets gets uglier with each passing week, as New York is now 1-3 and have scored 41 points in their 3 losses and had 48 against the Lions.
I just don’t think the Detroit defense is going to be able to do enough here to stop Rodgers and that Packers offense. The Lions are giving up almost a touchdown more to their opponent than what they average and are allowing a staggering 6 yards/play.
It’s also worth noting that Detroit is just 5-10 SU against the Packers with Matthew Stafford at quarterback and two of those were last year without Rodgers playing on the other side. Green Bay on the other hand has won 13 of 16 meetings with Detroit with Rodgers under center. Give me the Packers!
|10-06-18||Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5.5||Top||14-20||Win||100||26 h 11 m||Show|
50* NCAAF SEC 'ATS' GAME OF THE YEAR (Texas A&M -5.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Aggies as a mere 5.5-point home favorite against the Wildcats. It doesn’t happen often, but whenever you have a team ranked in the Top 25 getting points against an unranked opponent, it’s usually a pretty good sign to fade the team that’s ranked. I couldn’t agree more, as I not only think Texas A&M wins this matchup, but I think they do so in blowout fashion.
The thing you have to keep in mind with the rankings this early in the season, is the overall record is really what the voters dial in on. So while I think it’s pretty clear that Texas A&M is one of best 25 teams in the country, their 3-2 record has them on the outside looking in for the time being.
The Aggies only two losses this season have come against arguably two of the top programs in the country in Clemson and Alabama. While they lost both of those contests, they were there with Clemson in a 28-26 defeat at home and while they lost by 18-points to Alabama, that’s the best any team has looked to this point against the Crimson Tide, who are the overwhelming favorites to win it all.
I’m also not the least bit concerned about their lackluster showing last week in a 7-point win over a bad Arkansas team as a 19-point favorite. That was a brutal spot for Texas A&M off that emotional loss to Alabama.
I expect a much more dialed in and focused Aggies squad, who are going to want to make a statement and get that first win over a Top 25 opponent under new head coach Jimbo Fisher. You also have to factor in just how difficult a place Kyle Field is to get a win, especially in a prime time night game.
No disrespect to Kentucky, who no one envisioned being 5-0 to start the season, but I just think the Wildcats are a bit overvalued right now. They have certainly benefited from playing 4 of their first 5 games at home and while the road win over Florida was impressive, I think it will be tough for them to keep this one close.
That’s because this is a really tough matchup for the Wildcats. Kentucky’s offense is built around star running back Benny Snell, as they come in ranked a mere 118th in the country in passing at just 153 ypg. As good as Snell is, and he’s really good, Texas A&M has the defense to contain him.
The Aggies rank 3rd in the country against the run, giving up just 80.6 ypg. Keep in mind they held Clemson to just 115 yard rushing and only gave up 109 rushing yards on the road to Alabama, who currently has the 29th ranked rushing attack in the nation at 217.4 ypg. Texas A&M also has one of the best defensive coordinators in the game today in Mike Elko and you can bet his entire gameplan will be to not let Snell beat them.
I just don’t think Kentucky can keep this within a touchdown without Snell being a major factor and this Wildcats offense is certainly not one that is built to play from behind. Starting quarterback Terry Wilson hasn’t thrown for more than 165 yards in a single game this season and has just two touchdown passes to five interceptions. Give me the Aggies -5.5!
|10-06-18||Indiana +27 v. Ohio State||26-49||Win||100||23 h 39 m||Show|
40* BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS MASSACRE (Indiana +27)
I'll take my chances here with Indiana as a near 4-touchdown dog agains the Buckeyes on Saturday. It's amazing how the public can't help but betting the best teams, no matter the circumstances.
I just don't think we are going to see the best Ohio State has to offer coming off that thrilling 27-26 win over Penn State, where they had to rally from 12 down in the final 8 minutes of regulation. Expecting this team to bring the same intensity they had against the Nittany Lions against a team like Indiana is crazy. It's not going to happen. On the flip side of this, this game means everything to the Hoosiers, as these middle of the pack teams live for these chances to upset a top team.
I know the Buckeyes have a ton of talent on offense, but they struggled big time against Penn State. They only finished the game with 389 total yards and 174 of those came on there two 4th quarter scoring drives. Indiana's defense isn't on Penn State's level, but it's a solid unit. They are holding teams almost 7-points under their season average. As for the offense, that's where the less than 100% focused Ohio State team comes into play.
We saw Indiana hang with the Buckeyes last year in a very misleading 49-21 loss, as they had a 21-20 lead in the 3rd quarter. All we need is for something like 45-20 to get a cover. Give me the Hoosiers +27!
|10-06-18||Oklahoma v. Texas +7.5||45-48||Win||100||19 h 11 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT UNDERDOG KNOCKOUT (Texas +7.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Longhorns covering the spread. This just feels like the same old story we have seen the last 5 years in this series. Oklahoma has been over a touchdown favorite in this matchup each of the last 5 years, but have not covered a single spread during this stretch and have lost outright twice. All 3 wins for the Sooners have come by exactly 5-points.
Not only do I think Texas keeps this close enough to cover, but I like the Longhorns to win this game outright. The only slip up on the schedule for Texas is that opening week loss to Maryland on a neutral field. A game they very easily could have won as they led 29-24 going into the 4th quarter and had 3 straight possessions end with a turnover in the 4th quarter with Texas trailing by just 5-points.
The less than impressive win over a Kansas State team that looks to be down this year doesn’t concern me the least. Much like they did against Tulsa in the week leading up to their big showdown with USC, they simply took their foot off the gas. It certainly didn’t impact their performance against the Trojans, who they rolled 37-14. Texas also followed up that blowout win over USC with an impressive 31-16 win over a very good TCU team the next week.
As for Oklahoma, I’m just not sold on the Sooners being as good as everyone thinks. I know Kyler Murray has stepped in and played extremely well in place of Heisman winner Baker Mayfield, but a lot of that has to do with a very easy schedule to start the year. The toughest opponent to this point for Oklahoma has been Iowa State and they only beat them by 10 with the Cyclones playing the game without their starting quarterback.
I believe the difference in this one is going to be the Texas defense, which has been lights out since giving up 34 to the Terps in the opener. They haven’t allowed more than 21 points in any game since. They come in giving up 19.8 ppg against teams that on average are scoring 26.7, which means they are holding teams to roughly a touchdown under their season average. They are only giving up 115 ypg and 3.4 yards/carry against the run and while they are allowing 218 ypg through the air, opponents are only completing 54.9% of their pass attempts against them.
Adding to this, Texas is a dominant 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs high-scoring teams like Oklahoma, who are averaging 37 or more points/game. You also can’t ignore how good Tom Herman coached teams have been in the role of the underdog. Herman is 11-1 ATS as a head coach in games as an underdog and I fully expect him to improve to 12-1 after Saturday. Give me the Longhorns +7.5!
|10-06-18||Missouri v. South Carolina +1.5||35-37||Win||100||19 h 46 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD LINE MISTAKE (South Carolina +1.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Gamecocks as a home dog. This South Carolina is getting no respect at all right now, as there is no reason for Missouri to be favored on the road. The Gamecocks two losses are against Georgia at home and on the road against Kentucky. They won 37-14 at Vanderbilt in a similar spot, as they were only a 1.5-point road favorite against a much inferior opponent.
Every year Missouri looks great against bad teams and struggles against the top half of the SEC. Their best win is a 3-point victory at Purdue, who is down this year. They had their chance last week against Georgia at home and lost 43-29. That's a tough game to bounce back from, especially with a game against No. 1 Alabama looming on deck.
I think we get a pissed off South Carolina team and with that defense feeding off the home crowd, I look for Drew Lock and that Missouri offense to struggle to keep pace with what their defense gives up. Keep in mind they given up more than 1,100 yards in their last two games. Give me the Gamecocks +1.5!
|10-06-18||Buffalo -7.5 v. Central Michigan||Top||34-24||Win||100||19 h 43 m||Show|
50* NCAAF MAC 'ATS' GAME OF THE MONTH (Buffalo -7.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Buffalo laying just 7.5-points on the road against the Chippewas. I love this spot for the Bulls, who are going to be itching to take the field after getting a reality check last week in a 42-13 loss at home to Army.
That triple-option is brutal to prepare for and I think this Bulls team was feeling themselves a little too much after their 4-0 start, which included road wins over Temple and Rutgers, as well as a home win over a good Eastern Michigan team.
Central Michigan has covered 3 straight and 4 of 5 overall, which I think has this line a lot lower than it should be. This is not a good Chippewas team and that's pretty evident by the fact that they lost by 24 at home to Kansas. The 15-point loss to Kentucky looks great on paper, but that game was a much bigger mismatch than the final score would lead on. Same thing with their 11-point loss last week to Michigan State, as they were trailing 31-3 going into the 4th quarter.
I think given the talent that Buffalo has offensively and how much Central Michigan has had just picking up first downs (averaging 256 ypg and only 4.0 yards/play), there's no way the Bulls don't win here by double-digits. Give me Buffalo -7.5!
|10-05-18||Utah State +3 v. BYU||Top||45-20||Win||100||11 h 18 m||Show|
50* FRIDAY LATE NIGHT SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Utah St +3)
I'll take my chances here with the Aggies as a small road dog against the Cougars, as I think they win this game outright. Utah State was one of the most underrated teams in the country coming into the 2018 season and it’s shown by the fact that they are a perfect 4-0 ATS to start the season.
While BYU is also a much-improved team from last year, I think they are still getting a little too much love from that big upset win at Wisconsin. A victory they were very fortunate to get, as the Badgers outgained them by 83 yards and had a 20-14 edge in first downs. More than anything, I think the Cougars caught Wisconsin by surprise and that certainly seems to be the case after how poorly they played against Washington.
I know the schedule has been extremely difficult early on with 4 of their first 5 games coming against Power 5 opponents, but it’s hard to ignore the lackluster offensive numbers for BYU. The Cougars are 103rd in the country in rushing (132 ypg) and 116th in passing (163 ypg). Things could get even tougher on the offense if starting running back Squally Canada can’t go. He leads the team with 335 rushing yards and has accounted for 5 of the 12 touchdowns the BYU offense has managed to score this season.
Utah State has an emerging star at quarterback in Jordan Love, who you might recall torched a very good Michigan State defense for 319 yards earlier this season. This Aggies offense can also attack you on the ground, as they are averaging 5.5 yards/carry and that’s with them only managing 25 yards on 25 attempts in the opener against the Spartans.
The other big thing that will get overlooked is the advantage Utah State has in terms of scheduling. The Aggies will have had essentially two weeks to prepare for this game coming off a bye, while BYU has just 5 days to prepare for this contest and are coming off a very physical game against an elite Washington team.
Adding to this is the fact that Aggies head coach Matt Wells has gone an impressive 8-2 off a bye as the head coach at Utah State. BYU on the other hand is a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 home games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on Friday night and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 off a game where they had less than 275 yards of total offense. Give me Utah State +3!
|10-04-18||Colts v. Patriots -10||Top||24-38||Win||100||10 h 47 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Patriots -10)
I was originally leaning towards taking the Colts here as a double-digit dog, but the more I looked into this one the more I like New England to win this thing going away. There's no question the Colts are better than their 1-3 record, but this team is dealing with a massive amount of injuries and that's the absolute last thing you want to be dealing with when facing Brady and Belichick on the road in a short week of preparation.
We know for sure the Colts offense won't have Luck's favorite weapon in T.Y. Hilton, as well as tight end Jack Doyle. Starting running back Marlon Mack is also out. Starting right tackle Joe Haeg is on IR and backup right tackle Denzelle Good is out. Starting left tackle Anthony Castonzo and starting center Ryan Kelly are both questionable. They may also be without Mr. automatic in kickr Adam Vinatieri.
Defensively they have lost two of their top defensive lineman in Hassan Ridgeway and Tyquan Lewis, as well as two of their top corners in Quincy Wilson and Kenny Moore. Starting safeties Darius Leonard and Clayton Geathers are both questionable, as is star rookie linebacker Darius Leonard and backup corner Nate Hairston.
New England will have Gronkowski after he was originally listed as questionable and also get back one of Brady's favorite targets in Julian Edelman from a 4-game suspension. I know they kind of righted the ship with last week's win over Miami, but I still feel this team is playing with a chip on their shoulder after the slow start.
Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 off a win by 14 or more points, 35-14-2 in their last 51 in October and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me New England -10!
|10-04-18||Georgia State v. Troy -15||20-37||Win||100||9 h 17 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Troy -15)
I'll take my chances here with Troy cashing in a win as a big home favorite. The Trojans have clearly been undervalued by the books following that poor showing against Boise State in Week 1, as they covered 4 straight since that loss. I just don’t feel the number here has been set high enough and a bit surprised to see it drop like it has. It almost feels like people are giving Georgia State way too much respect off that blowout win as a dog in their last game against ULM.
I know the Panthers put up 46 points in that win over the Warhawks, but this is simply not a good offensive team. That was more of a result of just how bad ULM is defensively. Even after that offensive outburst, Georgia State is still ranked a mere 102nd in the country in total offense at just 361.2 ypg.
They are going to find it a lot harder to move the ball against a fast improving Troy defense, that has allowed just 18.5 ppg since giving up 56 in the opener against Boise State. Keep in mind last year the Trojans only allowed 6 points and 307 total yards to the Panthers.
I just don’t see Georgia State being able to score enough to keep this one close. Troy comes in averaging 41.3 ppg and 441 ypg at home. Expect more of the same against an awful Georgia State defense the is allowing 50.0 ppg and 610 ypg on the road. Adding to this, the Panthers are nearly giving up a first down every time the opponent runs a play on the road, as they are allowing 9.2 yards/play away from home.
The other big thing that can’t get overlooked here is how difficult is for the road team to play well in these weekday games on short rest. I believe it’s that much harder when you have a bad team like Georgia State, who simply doesn’t have a lot of talent to work with.
This is also a very young Panthers team that only returned 11 starters and has a true freshman at quarterback, so it’s really asking a lot for this team to keep this within 20 points against a good Troy team that is going to show up in a rare nationally televised game.
It’s also worth noting that Troy is a perfect 6-0 ATS after a game in which they scored 42 or more points, while Georgia State is a mere 2-6 ATS in their last 8 after accumulating 450 or more total yards in their last game and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs a team with a winning record. Give me the Trojans -15!
|10-01-18||Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos||Top||27-23||Win||100||10 h 51 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Kansas City as a small road favorite in this one. I don’t love being on the same side as the public, especially in a prime time game, but no way am I betting against this Chiefs team right now. Playing at home definitely gives Denver a shot, but I think they are going to have to play a perfect game to keep this close.
The biggest thing for me is I don’t see the Denver defense being able to slow down this high-powered Kansas City offense. I know it’s just 3 games, but Mahomes play on the field is arguably the best in the league. A big reason for that is the Chiefs have continuity on the offensive line and a plethora of weapons at the skill positions. Not to mention one of the best offensive minds in the game today in head coach Andy Reid.
Denver’s defense gets a lot of respect and I think that’s what is keeping this number lower than what it should be. It’s no secret their best player is Von Miller and when he dominates, the defense usually plays well. The Chiefs have one of the best right tackles in the game in Mitchell Schwartz and he’s typically the guy Miller goes against. Miller hasn’t had a sack in any of the last 3 games against the Chiefs.
It’s also worth pointing out that Mahomes got to face this defense in Week 17 last year and put up big numbers with a bunch of scrubs playing alongside of him. It’s also worth noting Denver’s defense struggled to contain this Chiefs offense back when Alex Smith was the quarterback, as KC has scored at least 27 in every game during their 5-game winning streak in the series.
The other thing that is keeping this number lower than it should be, is the perception of how bad this Chiefs defense is. I know the numbers aren’t great for Kansas City’s defense, but some of that is because of them getting out to such big leads and not wanting to give up the big plays. They have been really good at getting off the field early in the game and when it matters the most in the 4th quarter.
They have also played two Hall of Fame quarterbacks in Ben Roethlisberger and Drew Brees, as well as one of the top young guys in the league in Jimmy Garoppolo. Case Keenum is the worst QB they will have faced all season and if that Denver offense struggles just the slightest, this thing could get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|09-30-18||Saints v. Giants +3.5||33-18||Loss||-115||7 h 40 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Giants +3.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants getting more than a field goal at home. I just feel the Saints are way overvalued here. New Orleans is lucky to not be 0-3 right now. They lost as a double-digit home favorite in Week 1 to the Bucs, were extremely fortunate to beat the Browns at home in Week 2 and had to score in the final minutes of regulation to force overtime at Atlanta.
The thing is, New Orleans was super-hyped coming into the season and while they are lucky to be sitting at 2-1, the public won’t be able to help themselves with the Saints laying such a short number against a Giants team that hasn’t looked great.
I just don’t know how you trust this Saints team on the road in this spot. This feels like a must-win game for the Giants and the fact that they are a home dog will only add more fuel to the fire. As for New Orleans, I think that game against the Falcons took a lot out of this team. We just saw Minnesota and Green Bay struggle to play well after their overtime affair and I think it will be a similar struggle for the Saints.
A lackluster offensive showing in Weeks 1-2 really hurt the Giants, but they got on track this past Sunday against the Texans. Eli Manning played his best game of the year, completing 25 of 29 for 297 yards and 2 touchdowns. Rookie running back Saquan Barkley also had a big impact, rushing for 82 yards and a score, plus had 5 catches for 35 yards.
I think they build on that performance against a struggling Saints defense. New Orleans is 30th in the NFL against the pass, giving up 336.7 ypg. The only reason they aren’t last, is because they got to play the Browns while Tyrod Taylor was still their quarterback. Taylor couldn’t complete a 5-yard pass agains the Jets, yet he went 22 of 30 for 246 yards and a touchdown against the Saints.
The Giants defense is unlikely to keep Brees and the Saints offense from scoring, but New Orleans typically isn’t as efficient offensively on the road, especially when the game is played outdoors. I think the Giants will be able to get off the field enough to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but to win it outright. Take New York +3.5!
|09-30-18||Browns v. Raiders -2.5||42-45||Win||100||6 h 22 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Raiders -2.5)
I'll take my chances laying less than a field goal with the Raiders at home. I just think this is too good a price to pass up on Oakland in this spot. The Raiders have no one but themselves to blame for their 0-3 start, but they certainly aren’t as bad as their 0-3 record. This team could easily be 2-1 and I think there’s no way they aren’t more than a field goal favorite in that scenario. Either way, Oakland has to feel like this is a must-win game to keep their season alive.
I also think the hype around the Browns, especially with how good Mayfield looked in his debut, has Cleveland overvalued right now. Yes, the Browns have a good defense and there’s no denying that Mayfield looked like a massive upgrade of Taylor, but that win was against the Jets. I like the direction Cleveland is going, but they are at least a year away from being a team you can count on to deliver away from home.
That’s the biggest thing here for me. As good as Mayfield looked, he was fortunate to not have a couple passes intercepted. Unlike Taylor, who really values the football (arguably too much), Mayfield is going to take chances. I think it’s going to lead to a lot of turnovers and it’s really hard to win in this league when you lose the turnover battle, especially on the road. Let’s also not forget the Jets went into that game with a game-plan for Taylor at quarterback not Mayfield.
The biggest concern here is without a doubt the Raiders offense up against the Browns defense. Cleveland’s stop unit is greatly improved, but they could be down potentially 3 starters in Emmanuel Ogbah (DE), Christian Kirksey (LB) and Damarious Randall (FS). All of which are listed as questionable on the injury report.
I also think this Raiders offense is poised for a breakout performance. Oakland comes in 28th in the NFL in scoring at 17.3 ppg, but are 6th in the NFL at 400.7 ypg. Derek Carr has Oakland 6th in the league in passing at 302 ypg and they are right in the middle of the pack on the ground (98.7 ypg). Look for this unit to get on track Sunday and don’t be surprised if they aren’t aided by some short fields, which should lead to quick scores and ultimately them covering the spread. Give me the Raiders -2.5!
|09-30-18||Bucs v. Bears -2.5||Top||10-48||Win||100||3 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with Chicago laying less than a field goal at home. I think there’s a ton of value here with the Bears. While both of these teams have gotten off to impressive starts, I believe the Bears have the better shot of sustaining their early season success the rest of the way.
The addition of Khalil Mack has turned a really good Bears defense into of the elite units in the league. Chicago comes into this game ranked 2nd in the NFL against the run (65.3 ypg) and 11th against the pass (223.7 ypg). They also lead the league in sacks (14) and are tied for 2nd in takeaways (8).
As good as Tampa Bay’s offense has looked in their first 3 games, their numbers have been greatly aided by going up against a couple of sub-par defenses in the Saints and Steelers. The one good defense they played was the Eagles and they only managed 21 points. I think it’s going to be a long day for whoever ends up starting for Tampa Bay, whether it be Ryan Fitzpatrick or Jameis Winston.
The even bigger key for me is the Bucs defense and how poorly it has played thru the first 3 games of 2018. Tampa Bay is 31st in the NFL, allowing 432.7 ypg. They have been atrocious against the pass, giving up a ridiculous 362.7 yards/game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 102 of the 131 pass attempts agains this defense and are averaging an outstanding 8.3 yards/attempt.
I know it’s been a tough go of things for Mitch Trubisky and that Bears offense, but this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Chicago to easily have it’s best offensive output of the season and it’s not like we need the Bears to put up a huge number to get the win and cover.
Chicago is 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 home games and are 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 at home versus a team with a winning road record. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|09-29-18||Oregon v. California +2||Top||42-24||Loss||-110||32 h 59 m||Show|
50* NCAAF LATE NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH (Cal +2)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Cal as a home dog against the Ducks. I really like this Oregon team and took the unfortunate loss last week in their game against Stanford, but this is not the spot to back the Ducks. I just have a really hard time seeing Oregon bouncing back from that crushing loss to the Cardinal.
The Ducks had a complete meltdown in the 2nd half. They got the ball first and had 1st and 10 on the Stanford 22 on the opening drive of the 3rd quarter. They lost 13-yards on the next 3 plays and had to punt. After the Cardinal went 3-and-out, Oregon had 1st and goal at the 1, only to fumble a few plays later and watch Stanford returned it 80 yards for a score.
After the Cardinal pulled within 3, the Ducks scored with 4:39 left in the 4th to take a 31-21 lead. They were still up 31-28 with the ball and just 51 seconds on the clock (Stanford had just one time-out left). Oregon inexplicably fumbled the ball on 2nd down and Stanford went 46 yards to kick a field goal to send the game into OT.
There’s not many worse ways to lose than that. Not only do they have to deal with emotionally overcoming that loss, but they have to travel to one of the more difficult places to play in the Pac-12, which is only magnified with this being a prime-time showdown under the lights.
You also have to factor in the huge motivational angle with Cal, who not only wants to continue their perfect start to the season, but is out for revenge. Plus, the Golden Bears have a massive edge in rest and preparation coming off a bye week. All of this is a perfect recipe for Cal to not only win this game outright, but potentially win here going away. Give me the Golden Bears +2.
|09-29-18||South Carolina v. Kentucky UNDER 52||10-24||Win||100||29 h 43 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Under 52)
I'll take my chances with this one staying UNDER the mark set by the books. This just hasn't been a high-scoring series of late. The most these two teams have combined for over the last 3 seasons is 48 points and the last two matchups have seen a combined 27 and 36 points. Given how strong these two teams are on that side of the ball and how big this game is for both teams, I just don't see a shootout taking place.
Kentucky's defense has been outstanding to start the year. They come in ranked 11th in the country in total defense, allowing just 279 yards/game. They are giving up just 4.4 yards/play and rank inside the Top 50 agains both the run (21st) and pass (31st). I just don't think people realize how good that Mississippi State offense is and how impressive it was for the Wildcats to hold them to just 201 total yards.
South Carolina's defense isn't too far behind. The Gamecocks are 33rd in the country, giving up just 332 yards/game. That's with one of their games coming against an elite Georgia offense. They held Coastal Carolina to just 238 total yards and last week limited the Commodores to just 284 on the road.
The other key thing with the defenses is both are great against the run and I feel both of these offenses need to be able to run the football to have success. Kentucky is allowing just 106 rushing yards/game and giving up a mere 3.6 yards/carry against teams that average 5.2. South Carolina is allowing 3.9 yards/carry vs teams averaging 5.5.
The Wildcats are 11th in the country in rushing (269 ypg) and just 117th in passing (158.3 ypg), so it's going to be tough sledding for them in this one. The Gamecocks got a good quarterback in Jake Bentley, but when Georgia limited them to a mere 54 yards rushing, they only managed 17 points.
UNDER is 5-0 in South Carolina's last 5 road games vs a team with a winning road record and 15-5 in their last 20 conference games overall. UNDER is also 6-0 in the Wildcats last 6 home games vs a team with a winning road record. Give me the UNDER 50.5!
|09-29-18||Utah -1.5 v. Washington State||Top||24-28||Loss||-105||27 h 22 m||Show|
50* NCAAF POWER 5 GAME OF THE MONTH (Utah -1.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Utes as a short road favorite. I think this is the perfect spot to jump on the Utes for a lot of reasons. The biggest being that Utah is coming off a bye. The Utes have gone an impressive 20-6 SU and 17-8-1 ATS when coming off a bye under head coach Kyle Whittingham.
Not only has Utah been great when they get an extra week to prepare for their opponent, but they have been great in the role of the road dog. The Utes are 10-2 ATS over the last 4 seasons as a road underdog. They are also 17-4 in their last 21 road games against a team with a winning home record.
On top of all that, I think this is an ideal bounce back spot for Utah off that loss to Washington and no question this team is going to be out for revenge from last year’s loss at home to the Cougars. As for Washington State, I think they will have a tough time here rebounding from that crushing loss to USC last week. I also don’t think this Cougars team is as good as their 3-1 record would lead you to believe.
I know the offense has looked great to this point, but things are about to get a heck of a lot harder for the Cougars against what I think is an elite Utah defense. The Utes have allowed just 4 touchdowns in 3 games and two of those came with the opposing team getting the ball on their side of the field.
Washington State’s offense is once again a one-dimensional passing attack and that plays right into the strength of this Utah defense. The Utes are No. 1 in the country against the pass, giving up just 93.0 yards/game. Sure that’s aided a bit by their schedule, but they held Washington’s Jake Browning to just 155 yards.
I know Utah’s offense hasn’t exactly been lighting up the scoreboard, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have played a really good defense in Northern Illinois and an elite defense in Washington. I think this will be a breakout game for the Utes offensively, as I’m just not all that impressed with Washington State’s defense. I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for Utah to win here by a field goal and I wouldn’t be shocked at all if this turned into a blowout. Give me the Utes -1.5.
|09-29-18||Florida v. Mississippi State -7||13-6||Loss||-105||27 h 18 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS SLAUGHTER (Mississippi St -7)
I'll take my chances here with Mississippi State laying just a touchdown at home against Florida. The Bulldogs come in off a shocking 28-7 loss at Kentucky as a 10-point favorite, while the Gators are off a 47-21 win at Tennessee as a mere 4.5-point favorite. This is one of my favorite spots in terms of value, as we are getting a very average Florida team overvalued off their big cover and a really good Mississippi State team undervalued after laying an egg in their last game.
Kentucky is clearly better than people thought, but the Bulldogs didn't play anywhere close to their potential in that contest. I think a lot of that has to do with them looking past the Wildcats to this game, as this one has a little extra meaning to it with former Mississippi State head coach Dan Mullen now at Florida. Keep in mind Mullen wasn't fired, he left the team and the players are going to want to show him he made a mistake.
More than anything I just think there's a massive gap here in talent and while Florida did win on the road at Tennessee, this is their first real big road test and I think this thing is going to get ugly in a hurry. Give me the Bulldogs -7!
|09-29-18||Purdue v. Nebraska +3.5||42-28||Loss||-110||25 h 55 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Nebraska +3.5)
I'll take my chances here with Nebraska as a 3.5-point home dog. The Cornhuskers couldn’t look any worse to start the season and no one is going to want anything to do with betting this team as a small home dog, especially after how bad they looked against Michigan and how great Purdue played in their win over Boston College.
Much like it was for the Boilermakers last week at home against the Eagles, this is a make or break point of the season for the Cornhuskers after an 0-3 start. Not to mention, no team in the country enjoys getting embarrassed the way that Nebraska did against Michigan. I expect the Cornhuskers to put everything they have into this week of practice and to lay it all on the line in front of their home fans on Saturday.
While this is a big time bounce back spot for Nebraska, this a tough spot for the Boilermakers. Purdue just laid it all on the line in their game against BC and given how bad the Cornhuskers have looked, it would be very easy for the Boilermakers to not take this team seriously.
I know some of it is bad luck, but you also can’t ignore the 0-3 start for Purdue. I also have a hard time trusting this Boilermakers defense on the road. I know they looked great last week at home against the Eagles, but I think BC may have came into that game a little over-confident after their 3-0 start. Keep in mind this is a Purdue defense that only returned 4 starters from last year and typically inexperienced defenses struggle on the road and this is the Boilermakers’ first game away from home this season.
Another thing you have to keep in mind with Nebraska’s 0-3 start is they have played a pretty tough schedule to this point with their 3 games against Colorado, Troy and Michigan. While they are only averaging 19 ppg, their opponents are only giving up 19.9 ppg. Same thing with the defense. The Cornhuskers are giving up 37.7 ppg, but that’s against teams that on average are scoring 39.1 ppg.
I just think given the spot and just how much Nebraska needs this game, the value is with the home team, as there is no way the Cornhuskers would have been a dog if you set this line before the season started. Give me Nebraska +3.5!
|09-29-18||Pittsburgh +13.5 v. Central Florida||14-45||Loss||-110||25 h 46 m||Show|
40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS MASSACRE (Pittsburgh +13.5)
I'll take my chances here with Pittsburgh as a double-digit road dog against the Knights. I get the hype around this UCF team, especially after their 3-0 start, but they got no business being this big of a favorite against a decent Power 5 team. This is not the same caliber a Knights team as the one that went undefeated last year.
Sure they have looked great to start out 2018, but they haven't played anybody. Their 3 wins are around UConn, who is downright awful, FCS foe South Carolina State and FAU, who they beat by 20, but it was a lot closer than the final score would indicate. Keep in mind they were a 14-point home favorite against FAU and are laying the same number against a Pitt team that is better than people think.
No way I'm going to pass up with taking the points on the road, but I think there's a decent chance here that Pitt wins this game outright. This Pitt defense is without question the best defense UCF will have faced this season and they are going to come in hungry off a loss at UNC last time out. Note that while UCF is averaging 50 ppg, it's come against teams that on average give up 54.2 ppg. Same thing with the defensive numbers, as their opponents are only averaging 20.4 ppg. Give me the Panthers +13.5!
|09-29-18||West Virginia v. Texas Tech +4||42-34||Loss||-115||21 h 27 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SHOCKER (Texas Tech +4)
I'll take my chances with the Red Raiders as a home dog. Texas Tech has showed us a lot the last two weeks in their wins over two quality opponents in Oklahoma State and Houston. I know they lost their opener to Ole Miss, but keep in mind starting quarterback McLane Carter was knocked out of the game with an injury in the 1st quarter.
The injury to Carter may have cost them that game against the Rebels, but it might have been a blessing at the same time. It opened the door for true freshman quarterback Alan Bowman, who has looked every bit the part of the next great Texas Tech quarterback. Bowman absolutely torched a decent Houston defense for 605 yards and 5 touchdowns two weeks ago and backed that up with 397 yards and 2 scores on the road against Oklahoma State.
I know the Texas Tech defense has some holes, but holding Oklahoma State to just 17 points is a very promising sign. If they get just a few more stops a game than they have in the past, it’s going to be extremely hard for teams to keep pace with that Red Raiders’ offense. Keep in mind that this was expected to be one of the best defenses Tech has fielded in quite some time, as they had 10 starters back from a unit that made big strides and was T-6th in the country with 29 takeaways.
West Virginia has the dynamic 1-2 punch of quarterback Will Grier and wide out David Sills, but the book is still out on this Mountaineers team. The win over Tennessee doesn’t look near as good after the Vols got routed at home by Florida this past Saturday. There’s also nothing to be excited about with their win over Kansas State, who simply isn’t that great this year.
Texas Tech is without a doubt the more battle-tested team and you also have to factor in this being the first true road game of the season for West Virginia and Jones AT&T Stadium is one of the more difficult places to play, especially when the fan base is excited about their team, which is definitely the case right now.
I also like the revenge angle here for Texas Tech and the fact that they are a home dog. That all but eliminates any possibility of the Red Raiders not being 100% locked in for this game. They also have a bye week on deck, so there’s literally no excuse for them to not lay it all on the line. Give me Texas Tech +4!
|09-28-18||UCLA +10 v. Colorado||16-38||Loss||-115||11 h 35 m||Show|
40* UCLA/COLORADO FRIDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (UCLA +10)
I'll take my chances here with UCLA to keep this within the number against the Buffaloes. It's been a difficult start to the season for the Bruins, who are 0-3 under new head coach Chip Kelly. No one wants anything to do with UCLA right now, but I like them in this spot. The Bruins aren't as bad as people think, as they have played about a brutal non-conference schedule so far with their first 3 against Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Fresno State, who are a combined 10-1. Colorado is 3-0, but have beat the likes of Colorado St, Nebraska and New Hampshire. They were also very fortunate to beat the Cornhuskers, as Nebraska had a 565 to 395 edge in total yards. It's also worth noting both teams are off a bye. Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre is 1-5 SU off a bye with the Buffaloes and 1-8 SU overall as a head coach. Kelly went 8-2 off a bye in his days with Oregon and I wouldn't be shocked if the Bruins got their first win of 2018. Give me UCLA +10!
|09-27-18||Vikings v. Rams OVER 49||Top||31-38||Win||100||21 h 44 m||Show|
50* RAMS/VIKINGS VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 49)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 49 in Thursday's NFL showdown between the Vikings and Rams. I know last week’s Thursday night game was a defensive battle between the Jets and Browns, but it still came within 1-point of going OVER the total. These Thursday night games are typically higher scoring. Not only do teams have just 3 days to prepare, but their bodies only get 3 days to recover. Defense is all about energy and effort and players just aren’t flying around the field like they would be on normal rest.
It also helps having one of the best offensive teams in the league playing. The Rams are making it look easy on the offensive side of the ball and as good as the Vikings are defensively, I don’t see them slowing down this attack, especially on the road. Not to mention, I think Los Angeles will be out to send a message against this Minnesota defense that held them to just 7 points last year. Reminds me a lot of their second meeting against the Seahawks last year. The Rams scored just 10-points in a loss at home to Seattle in Week 5, only to put up 42 on them in Week 15.
The Vikings defense will be without stud defensive end Everson Griffen and that's a huge loss for that stop unit against an elite offense.
As for Minnesota’s offense against the Rams defense. As bad as the Vikings looked offensively in that game against the Bills, that’s as bad as you will see them play on that side of the ball, probably the rest of the year. We also saw Los Angeles not look nearly as good on defense in their step up in competition after facing the Raiders and Cardinals the first two weeks. Philip Rivers threw for 2 scores and Melvin Gordon Rushed for 80 yards on just 15 carries, as the Charges amassed 356 yards.
The Rams are also dealing with some big injuries right now. Both Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib had to leave the game against the Chargers with ankle injuries. Both are out for this one and they will also be without linebacker Mark Barron. Kirk Cousins should be able to pick up big yards down the field and the Vikings will likely be forced to push the ball to try and keep pace with that Rams offense.
OVER is 30-15 in the Vikings last 45 games vs excellent passing teams that average 7.5+ yards per pass attempt and 13-3 in their last 16 road games vs elite teams that come in outscoring their opponents by 10+ points/game. Give me the OVER 49!
|09-27-18||North Carolina v. Miami-FL -17.5||10-47||Win||100||20 h 24 m||Show|
40* UNC/MIAMI NCAAF ATS KNOCKOUT (Miami -17.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Hurricanes covering the big number at home. A lot of people jumped off the Miami bandwagon after that ugly 33-17 loss to LSU in Week 1 and I think a lot of those same people will be quick to grab the points with a Tar Heels team that is coming off a solid win over Pitt. Not to mention UNC is getting 7 players back from suspension. Getting guys back is great, but most of those players returning won’t impact this game.
It turns out that LSU is way better than anyone anticipated and you have to wonder if Miami didn’t go into that opener a little over-confident against a team they thought they would handle. The thing to keep in mind is that Miami came into this season thinking playoffs and with that loss they can’t afford to overlook another opponent. I certainly don’t see them looking past the Tar Heels given how tough UNC has played them of late. Not to mention this being their home opener and the excitement and energy that comes with playing at home in a nationally televised game. This is Miami’s shot to make a statement and get back some of the respect they lost in the defeat to LSU.
I know we don’t know for sure, but I would be shocked if Perry wasn’t the starter for this game. It’s not like he came in and just played a series to get some reps. He replaced Rosier for good in that game and with the offense was clearly better with him on the field. Anytime there’s a big change like this at a key position, especially quarterback, it can light a fire under the entire team and I expect Hard Rock Stadium to be electric.
You also have to look at the defense of North Carolina. The Tar Heels just aren’t very good on that side of the ball. They held Cal to just 24 points, but allowed 41 points and over 500 yards to East Carolina and another 35 points and 400+ yards to Pitt. Miami just has too much talent and speed for UNC to keep them from scoring early and often.
The key here for me, is I don’t see the Tar Heels offense being able to keep pace with what their defense allows. I know they looked good on that side of the ball last week, but this is still the same team that scored a mere 17 points at Cal and 19 at East Carolina. Miami’s defense loves to show off and they are going to be chomping at the bit for this prime time matchup.
Note that when the Hurricanes score a minimum of 28 points they have gone 14-3 ATS over the last 3 seasons and won these contests by an average of 28.3 ppg (43.4-15.1). Give me Miami -17.5!
|09-24-18||Steelers v. Bucs OVER 53.5||30-27||Win||100||56 h 60 m||Show|
40* STEELERS/BUCS MNF NO-BRAINER (Over 53.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the Steelers and Bucs going OVER the total set by the books. I just don’t think the total is high enough with the talent these two teams have on the offensive side of the ball and how bad they are on the defensive side of the ball. I look for both teams to score early and often and there figures to be a lot of explosive plays from both sides that lead to some quick scores.
Pittsburgh’s defense just hasn’t been the same since Ryan Shazier went down last season. They held the Browns to 21-points, but Cleveland’s offense was anemic with Tyrod Taylor at quarterback. We saw just how much better the Browns offense was when Baker Mayfield took over for him in Thursday’s win over the Jets. After watching Mahomes and the Chiefs do whatever they wanted against the Steelers in Week 2, I don’t know how they are going to contain this Tampa Bay offense.
Chances are Fitzpatrick won’t be able to sustain this ridiculous play the entire season, but right now he’s playing at an elite level and you have to just assume with the weapons he has that it’s going to last at least a few more weeks.
What often gets overlooked when a team is putting up big numbers and winning games, is the play of the defense and Tampa Bay is lucky the offense has been clicking. They gave up almost 500 yards to the Saints in Week 1 and over 400 yards to an Eagles offense that had looked atrocious with Foles at quarterback this season. Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is going to have their way in this one.
Adding to all of this is a great system in play. The OVER is 28-8 going all the way back to 1983 when you have a home team with a line of +3 to -3 that has allowed 99 or fewer rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that had 50 or fewer rushing yards in their last game. That’s a 78% system in favor of the OVER. Give me the OVER 53.5!
|09-23-18||Broncos v. Ravens -5||Top||14-27||Win||100||25 h 47 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -5)
|09-23-18||Bengals v. Panthers -3||21-31||Win||102||25 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Panthers -3)
|09-23-18||49ers v. Chiefs -6||27-38||Win||100||25 h 46 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Chiefs -6)
|09-22-18||Wisconsin v. Iowa +3.5||28-17||Loss||-115||28 h 37 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS MASSACRE (Iowa +3.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Hawkeyes as a home dog. Kinnick Stadium is one of the most difficult places to play in college football and there’s something special about this place at night. Two years ago the Hawkeyes came out of nowhere to stun No. 2 ranked Michigan 14-13 as a 21-point underdog in a home night game. Last year they nearly upset No. 4 Penn State, losing 21-19 with the Nittany Lions scoring a touchdown on the final play of the game.
I also think after watching BYU go into Madison and beat the Badgers, the talent gap between these two teams might not be as big as originally thought. BYU’s defense more than held their own against that Wisconsin offense and the Cougars rushed for 191 yards, while averaging 6.8 yards/carry. BYU is definitely improved this year, but I would argue Iowa is every bit as good as the Cougars and likely a little stronger.
There’s going to be plenty of people calling out Iowa and their 3-0 start because of what looks like a soft schedule, but Northern Illinois is a team that was picked to win the MAC by a lot of people and nearly upset Utah the very next week. Iowa State on the other hand only lost by 10 at home to Oklahoma and they were without their starting quarterback. Even Northern Iowa is no pushover, as they came into the year ranked in the Top 15 of FCS programs.
I think that with the electric atmosphere and Wisconsin being a team that wants to run to set up the pass, this Hawkeyes defense can really make things difficult on this Badgers offense. Iowa comes into this game ranked 2nd in the country, allowing just 42 yards/game rushing and out of the 24 points they have allowed, 21 have come in garbage time in the 4th quarter. They held the same ISU offense that put up nearly 450 yards on the Sooners to just 188 total yards and 11 first downs.
The Iowa offense hasn’t been all that impressive, but a lot of that had to do with Stanley not playing up to his potential in the first two games. He looked like a different guy against UNI. I know lighting up a FCS defense is nothing to get overly excited about, but I think it was huge for his confidence going into this game. If he shows up and can keep Wisconsin from just loading the box, Iowa could runaway with this thing. Keep in mind BYU had just 120 passing yards in their win over the Badgers last week, so it’s not like he has to play well for the Hawkeyes to win this game. Give me Iowa +3.5.
|09-22-18||Stanford v. Oregon +3||Top||38-31||Loss||-115||27 h 16 m||Show|
50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Oregon +3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Oregon getting points at home against Stanford. I think the books had this one listed right when they opened it, as I just don’t think the Cardinal should be favored on the road. This Oregon team is no joke and I just think people have forgot about how big an advantage is to play at Autzen Stadium in a prime time night game like this.
I just don’t know how you trust this Stanford team on the road given the struggles they have had offensively. I know Bryce Love didn’t play last week, but he wasn’t anything special in the first two games. Thru 3 games the Cardinal have the 112th ranked rushing attack (115.3 ypg) are just 63rd in passing (243 ypg). That 14-3 win over USC doesn’t look nearly as good after the Trojans were embarrassed 37-14 at Texas this past weekend.
I know the defense has been great, but they played one of the most traditional offenses in the country in San Diego State, a USC team that lost a ton and was starting a true freshman at quarterback and a FCS foe in UC Davis. Note that Texas, who gave up 34 points and over 400 yards to Maryland in their opener, held USC to fewer yards (317) than Stanford did (332).
Simply put, this Oregon offense is the best unit that Stanford will have faced to this point in the season. The Ducks come in averaging 51 ppg (8th) and are averaging 503 ypg (24th). They have playmakers at both running back and wide receiver, plus a season veteran at quarterback in junior Justin Herbert, who already has thrown for 12 touchdowns.
I know the schedule has been soft, but the Oregon defense is better than people think, especially up front. The Ducks are sitting 9th in the country, allowing just 77 ypg and have allowed just 2.0 yards/carry. The defense should feed off what will be an electric crowd and I look for his entire Oregon team to come out with a chip on their shoulder after how bad they have been the last two years of this series. Give me Oregon +3!
|09-22-18||TCU -3 v. Texas||16-31||Loss||-105||24 h 37 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (TCU -3)
I'll take my chances here with TCU as a short road favorite against the Longhorns. I just don’t trust this Texas team. The win over USC looks great on paper, but that’s not a great Trojans team. I also still can’t get forget about that loss to Maryland in the opener.
Last year you could make the excuse that Texas was overlooking the Terps, but not this year. Not to mention that loss to Maryland looks even worse after the Terps were just annihilated at home by Temple 35-14. Note the Owls came into that came 0-2 with losses at home to Villanova and Buffalo. On top of that, the Tulsa team they struggled to beat two weeks ago lost at home to Arkansas State this past Saturday.
Even though it came in a loss, TCU proved that they are for real. They lost by just 12-points, despite the Buckeyes scoring two defensive touchdowns. The yardage battle was almost identical, as Ohio State had 526 and the Horned Frogs had 511. Note that if you take away the two defensive scores, TCU held the Ohio State offense to just 26 points.
TCU’s defense is the best in the Big 12 and when you can get consistent stops on that side of the ball, you can go on the road and take down quality opponents. That defense is a big reason why the Horned Frogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games.
You also can’t ignore the history of this series with the Horned Frogs winning 4 straight by at least 17 points. I know Texas head coach, Tom Herman, has been there for just one of them, but last year’s Longhorns team only managed 263 total yards against the TCU defense. Adding to this, the Horned Frogs have covered 4 of their last 5 trips to Austin.
It’s also worth noting that Texas has not been a good team to back when coming off a blowout win. The Longhorns are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win by more than 20 points. Give me TCU -3!
|09-22-18||Arizona v. Oregon State +7||35-14||Loss||-115||23 h 10 m||Show|
40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Oregon State +7)
I'll take my chances here with the Beavers getting a touchdown at home against Arizona. Oregon State is light years better than the team that finished 1-11 last year. They put up 31 points on a great Ohio State defense in Week 1, rolled Southern Utah at home and nearly upset Nevada on the road.
A lot of people haven't heard of Oregon State head coach Jonathan Smith, but he's doing some big things in year one, mainly on the offensive side of the ball. The Beavers only averaged 20.7 ppg and 334 ypg last year. Smith, who was the OC at Washington the last 5 years, has them at 38.0 ppg and 527 ypg early on in 2018.
As for Arizona, this team was way over-hyped coming into the season and it's shown. They lost at home to BYU in their opener and were annihilated on the road by Houston. The lone win came against Southern Utah and it was a very similar outcome to when Oregon State played Southern Utah. I just think these two teams are a lot more evenly matched than a lot of people realize. The biggest thing with the Beavers and this line, is they have been so bad for so long that they are going to keep showing value even though they are clearly better. Give me Oregon State +7!
|09-22-18||South Carolina -2.5 v. Vanderbilt||Top||37-14||Win||100||23 h 8 m||Show|
50* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (S. Carolina -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Gamecocks laying less than a field goal on the road against the Commodores. South Carolina has to be absolutely chomping at the bit to take the field. They have yet to play a game after that ugly Week 2 loss at home to Georgia, as last weeks game against Marshall was canceled due to the hurricane that hit the area.
Not to take anything away from the Commodores, who are better than expected, but this is a horrible spot for them off that heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame. The offense that lit it up against Middle Tennessee and Nevada managed just 17 points against the Fighting Irish. That's not going to cut it against this South Carolina team, which I think is a lot better than they get credit for.
It's also worth noting this series has been very lopsided. The Commodores have lost 9 straight by an average of 9 ppg. I'm not saying it won't be close, but I just think there's way too much value with South Carolina essentially just needing to win the game outright to get the cover. Give me the Gamecocks -2.5!
|09-22-18||Texas A&M v. Alabama OVER 60.5||23-45||Win||100||23 h 47 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 60.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in Saturday's SEC clash between Alabama and Texas A&M. I actually think there’s a ton of value on the total, as I think this game easily gets into the 70’s.
I was on the OVER 70 last week in the Alabama/Ole Miss game. The game finished with 69 points, despite being halfway to the total at the end of the 1st quarter (28-7) and 56 at the half (49-7). I’m still shocked that the Rebels were completely shutdown after scoring on their first drive. Either way, it’s not keeping me from taking the OVER in this one.
I’m confident this is going to end up being the most prolific offense of the Nick Saban era. Alabama currently leads the country at 56.7 ppg. The rushing numbers (236.7 ypg) are on par with previous Crimson Tide teams, but the passing attack (308 ypg) is on a whole different level. The previous high for passing yards over the last 3 seasons is 227 ypg. It’s also worth noting that Alabama has scored just 17 points (1 score each game) in the 4th quarter of their 3 games combined, as they have had to call off the dogs.
All of this is a result of the play of sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who I think has already locked the Heisman Trophy up. I got a lot of respect for Jimbo Fisher, but that Texas A&M defense isn’t going to stop this Alabama attack from putting up a big number.
The key here is that unlike Ole Miss, I believe the Aggies can score more than 7 points against this Crimson Tide defense. In fact, I think they can score into the 20’s. We already saw Texas A&M score 26 against an elite Clemson defense earlier this season. They could have well into the 30’s as they missed two field goals and fumbled twice inside the Tigers 30-yard line. Despite all those missed opportunities (Clemson also fumbled on the Aggies 1-yard line), that game against Clemson saw a combined 54 points. That game could have easily had 70-plus points. Give me the OVER 60.5!
|09-22-18||Georgia v. Missouri +15||43-29||Win||100||19 h 14 m||Show|
40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (Missouri +15)
I'll take my chances here with Missouri as more than a two touchdown dog at home to the Bulldogs. Georgia has looked the part of a playoff team to this point an already have that impressive road win over South Carolina. With that said, I think this Missouri team is a lot better than people think, but don't get the respect because of how they struggled against the top teams last year.
The Tigers just went on the road and beat a good Purdue team that desperately didn't want to start 0-3 and that was no easy spot given this massive game was on deck. Anytime you have a quarterback that is as talented as Missouri's Drew Lock, you don't just have a good shot at keeping games close, but it's not out of the question they could pull off the upset.
A big thing here is I don't think Georgia has seen an offense as explosive as Missouri. They are giving up just 8 ppg, but that's against teams averaging just 19.3 ppg and 318 ypg. The Tigers are sitting at 43.7 ppg and 589 ypg.
The Bulldogs better bring their "A" game or they might be leaving Columbia with their first loss of 2018. Either way I think the Tigers keep it closer than expected. Give me Missouri +15!
|09-21-18||Florida Atlantic +13.5 v. Central Florida||Top||36-56||Loss||-105||8 h 53 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (FAU +13.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with FAU as a double-digit dog against UCF. I know the Knights have looked great early on and will have a massive edge in rest with them having not played since Sept. 8th and FAU on just 5 days of rest. However, I just think this is too many points.
I think there’s a couple reasons we are seeing FAU undervalued in this matchup. The first being that ugly 63-14 Week 1 loss at Oklahoma, where they went off as a mere 21-point dog. The other being the fact that they haven’t covered a single contest. Clearly this team was getting too much respect against the Sooners, but keep in mind they lost 42-19 and 31-14 in their first two games last year against Navy and Wisconsin.
I just have a lot of trust in Lane Kiffin and the Owls offense to score enough here to keep this game competitive. After struggling to get anything going against Oklahoma, Florida Atlantic has amassed over 500 total yards in each of their last two games against Air Force and Bethune-Cookman. What I like is how they took advantage of what the defense gave them. They had just 54 rushing yards against the Falcons, but Chris Robinson threw for 471 yards. Against Bethune-Cookman they rushed for 376 yards, while only throwing for 183.
UCF’s defense looks great through the first two games, but a lot of that has to do with the fact that they have played UConn and South Carolina St.
Despite playing some bad offenses the run defense has given up 220 yards to UConn and 177 last time out to South Carolina State.
As for UCF’s offense, they are going to score some points behind talented junior quarterback McKenzie Milton, but once again the big numbers through the first two games are more a result of who they played. I think FAU can get some stops and it wouldn’t shock me of the Owls pulled off the upset. Give me Florida Atlantic +13.5!
|09-20-18||Jets v. Browns OVER 39.5||Top||17-21||Loss||-107||21 h 33 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 39.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the OVER 39.5 in Thursday's NFL action that has the Browns hosting the Jets. I just feel the number here is a bit of an overreaction to what we just saw. The Jets managed just 12 points in a game with the Dolphins that saw a combined 32 points and went well below the posted total of 43. Cleveland managed just 18 in a game with the Saints that saw 39 points to go well UNDER the total of 51.
While both of these offenses do have their limitations, I think we could see both teams score into the 20s in this one. The biggest factor here is this being a Thursday night game. It’s extremely hard on these NFL players to turn around and play a game with just 3 days of rest and it’s a big reason why we see a lot of high-scoring games in these Thursday games. So much of defense is effort and these guys are playing at less than 100%. Not to mention they also have 3 fewer days to prepare for the opposition.
The other thing for me is that both offenses moved the ball better than their scoring output would suggest. Cleveland had 327 yards against the Saints and the Jets had 362 against the Dolphins.
You also have to look at these two defenses and how they been able to rack up turnovers early on. After forcing 6 turnovers against the Steelers in Week 1, the Browns had 2 more against the Saints. The Jets force 5 in Week 1 on the road against the Lions and 2 more on Sunday against Miami. While turnovers can be drive killers, they can also lead to short fields and quick scores. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw at least 1 defensive touchdown in this game.
We also have great OVER situations in play involving both teams. OVER is 31-9 over the last 5 seasons when you have a team (Browns) off a road cover where they lost outright as a dog in the month of September. OVER is also 42-16 over the last 10 years when you have a team off an upset loss as a home favorite in September. Give me the OVER 39.5!
|09-20-18||Tulsa +7 v. Temple||17-31||Loss||-105||20 h 46 m||Show|
40* NCAAF THURSDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Tulsa +7)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Tulsa as a touchdown underdog against the Owls. Not only do I think the Golden Hurricane will keep it close enough to cover, but I believe they can win this game outright. I know Tulsa is coming off a home loss to Arkansas State, but this is a much better team than people realize. The Golden Hurricane are just 2 years removed from a 10-win season and are loaded this year with 15 starters back.
Tulsa averaged just 29.3 ppg last year, but had put up 42.5 ppg in 2016 and 37.2 ppg in 2015. With 8 starters back and a talented sophomore quarterback in Luke Skipper leading the charge, I look for this Golden Hurricane offense to get back to averaging close to 40 ppg this year.
Temple's defense couldn't have looked much better against the Terps, but they just loaded the box and made Maryland one dimensional. Not to mention it looked like the Terps were a little over-confident going into that matchup after their impressive 2-0 start. This is still the same Owls team that lost outright as favorites at home against both Villanova and Buffalo. Give me the Golden Hurricane +7!
|09-17-18||Seahawks v. Bears -4||Top||17-24||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Bears -4)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago at home on Monday Night Football. For me it’s all about the Bears defense. I believe the addition of Mack has taken Chicago from being a good defensive team to a great one. Keep in mind this team quietly finished last year ranked 10th in total defense and 9th in points allowed.
I look for Mack and that dominant front 7 of the Bears to have their way with Seattle’s offensive line, which is once again one of the worst units in the league. The Seahawks couldn’t run the ball against the Broncos (64 yards) and Russell Wilson was sacked 6 times and threw two interceptions. Add in the home field edge with Chicago and this being a prime time game and I look for that defense to feast in this one. Note that Seattle is still without their top wide out in Doug Baldwin.
The other big key here is I don’t think this Seattle defense is very good. They were very fortunate to only give up 27 points to the Broncos. Case Keenum torched the secondary for 329 yards and 3 scores and Denver piled on 470 total yards. Keenum was just 19 of 35 yesterday against the Raiders and Denver was extremely fortunate to win at home 20-19.
You also have to factor in that Seattle will be without both their star linebackers in Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright, as well as several other players to injury. The Seahawks are are also historically a slow-starting team under head coach Pete Carroll. The Seahawks are just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games in the first two weeks of the season. Chicago is also an impressive 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Give me the Bears -4.
|09-16-18||Raiders +7 v. Broncos||19-20||Win||100||30 h 15 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Raiders +7)
I think the Broncos are getting a little too much respect for a win over what I believe is a Seahawks team that isn’t all that great outside of Russell Wilson. I would be shocked if Seattle ended up in the playoffs this year. On the flip side of this, I think people are writing off Oakland after a 20-point home loss to the Rams. I actually thought the Raiders played well in that game. The Rams are just loaded with talent and are going to do that to a lot of teams this year.
I was impressed with the 395 total yards that Oakland racked up against LA, as they actually outgained the Rams by 30 yards on the game. I know the Broncos defense looked great, but they had such a big advantage in the trenches with all the talent they have up front and Seattle having one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Derek Carr was only sacked once by a Rams front that features arguably the two best defensive tackles in the game. They are going to be primed for Von Miller and the Broncos pass rush.
Another factor here that has me thinking the spread is a little high here, is the fact that only once in the last 3 seasons (6 meetings) have the Broncos beat Oakland by more than 6-points. That one doesn’t really count in my book, as that was back in Week 17 of the 2016 season where the Raiders were without Carr after he broke his leg the previous week.
I know it’s a new team with Gruden, but it’s worth noting that the Raiders are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a double-digit loss at home (I think a lot of teams perform well in this spot, as they are highly motivated and a little undervalued on the line).
A lot of people think Denver has a big home field edge, but they are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 home games. They are also just 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 off a SU win. I’ll gladly take my chances with the Raiders, who I believe are a live dog in this one. Give me Oakland +7.
|09-16-18||Texans -3 v. Titans||Top||17-20||Loss||-101||27 h 1 m||Show|
50* NFL 'AFC SOUTH' GAME OF THE YEAR (Texans -3)
I played against the Titans in their Week 1 loss at Miami and I believe that is just the start of what's going to be a really tough year for Tennessee. The Titans were by far the worst team to make the playoffs last year and it simply has them getting way too much respect coming into 2018 and the books are slow to adjust on teams the first couple weeks of the season.
Houston lost their opener at New England, but that's a loss you can live with, as it's never easy going up against Bill Belichick and Tom Brady when they have had weeks to prepare for you. I look for Deshaun Watson and that Houston offense to bounce back in a big way in this one. Miami's Ryan Tannehill picked apart the Titans secondary, going 20 of 28 for 230 yards and 2 scores. The Dolphins don't have near the weapons that Houston does.
The Titans offense wasn't very good and it doesn't figure to be any better against what I think is an elite Texans defense. Marcus Mariota is banged up (expected to split reps with Blaine Gabbert), their best weapon on the outside, Delanie Walker is now on IR and both starting tackles, Jack Conklin and Taylor Lewan aren't expected to play. I think this one could get ugly. Give me the Texans -3!
|09-16-18||Panthers v. Falcons -6||24-31||Win||100||27 h 1 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS MASSACRE (Falcons -6)
I think Atlanta is flying under the radar going into Week 2, while I think people are overreacting to the Panthers Week 1 win.
Even after scoring just 12 points against the Eagles, I have high expectations for this Falcons’ offense going forward. That Eagles defense is one of the best in the league and while the Panthers are typically strong defensively, they don’t pose the same caliber a pass rush or talent in the secondary.
It’s also worth noting that Carolina is still without one of their top linebackers in Thomas Davis, who was suspended for the first 4 games and star middle linebacker Luke Keuchly figures to be playing this at less than 100% after hyper-extending his knee late in the win over Dallas.
I’m also not buying the great defensive showing by Carolina in Week 1. The Cowboys offense was a complete mess. For whatever reason Dallas wanted to drop Prescott back and throw to that lackluster receiving corps instead of feeding their best player in Ezekiel Elliott, who had just 15 carries.
It’s going to be night and day for the Panthers defense when they line up against the Falcons and all the weapons they have on the field. Not to mention Atlanta’s offense is built for playing inside a dome, where the Panthers defense is best suited on a grass or turf playing surface.
Not only has the home team covered 5 of the last 6 meetings, but Matt Ryan is 4-1 in his last 5 home starts against the Panthers and has averaged 333 passing yards in those games. As for Cam Newton, he’s posted some of his worst numbers in Atlanta. He’s completed just 53% of his attempts and averaged a mere 150 passing ypg in his last 5 on the road vs the Falcons.
I am aware of the Falcons losing two of their best defensive players in Deion Jones and Keenu Neal, but I still like Dan Quinn’s defense in this one. Carolina has been hit hard with injuries on the offensive side of the ball, most notably the offensive line. Left tackle Matt Kalil is on IR, right tackle Daryl Williams is doubtful and guard Trea Turner is in the concussion protocol. Keep in mind they let All-Pro Andrew Norwell leave in free agency and did little to replace him. They also lost Newton’s favorite target in Greg Olson to a serious foot injury.
Add in the fact that the Falcons are going to be the more hungry team, as they are the ones trying to avoid the 0-2 start, and that Atlanta has had 3 more days to prepare and I think this one could get ugly in favor of the home. Give me the Falcons -6.
|09-16-18||Chargers -7 v. Bills||Top||31-20||Win||100||27 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Chargers -7)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Chargers laying just a touchdown against the Bills. I know you can't overreact to much to Week 1, but I'm pretty confident that Buffalo is the worst team in the league. While I would have loved for the Bills to keep trotting out the horrible Nathan Peterman, rookie Josh Allen isn't that big of an upgrade. He's got some raw talent, but is not ready for the NFL game.
I think we got an even better idea of just how bad this Bills team is after watching the Ravens lose to the Bengals on Thursday Night Football. Baltimore's defense gave up 21 points in the first 17 minutes of the game after only allowing 3 points and 153 total yards in their 47-3 blowout win over the Bills in Week 1.
The Chargers lost in a shootout to KC at home in Week 1, but they outgained the Chiefs 541 to 362. Philip Rivers threw for 424 yards and 3 scores and would have topped 500 yards if it wasn't for his receives dropping a couple of easy catches downfield. This team is tired of starting slow and will be out to lay it on the Bills and I just don't see Buffalo being able to keep this close with how limited they are offensively. Give me Los Angeles -7!
|09-16-18||Chiefs v. Steelers OVER 53||42-37||Win||100||27 h 47 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 53)
My strongest play in Week 1 was the Chiefs/Chargers OVER 48. I had a really good feeling this Kansas City offense was going to put up points and at the same time would allow their fair share on the defensive side of the ball. That’s exactly what happened, as the two teams combined for 66 points and more than 900 yards of offense.
I know this is a massive total, especially compared to most of the other games on the board for Week 2, but I think these two will easily eclipse this mark.
The Chiefs put up 38 points in Week 1 and did so without much help from two of their top targets in Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce. That just tells you the talent this team has at the skill positions and I love that Mahomes isn’t just forcing it to his star players.
The Steelers defense held the Browns to just 21 points, but that was in less than ideal conditions (heavy wind and rain). This was not the same caliber a defense last year after they lost Ryan Shazier and one I think will struggle in 2018. The big thing that stands out to me is they allowed 177 rushing yards to the Browns. Look for KC to have a balanced attack in this one.
As for the Pittsburgh offense going up against the Chiefs defense. I look for Big Ben and company to feast on this KC defense. The Chiefs allowed 541 yards to the Chargers in Week 1 and were very fortunate LA only ended up with 28 points. With Eric Berry out again and all those new faces in the secondary, this unit is going to struggle early. Not to mention Roethlisberger and that Steelers offense is a whole different beats at home compared to on the road.
OVER is also 9-3 in the Chiefs last 12 road games and 9-3 in their last 12 games played early on in the month of September. Give me the OVER 53.
|09-15-18||USC v. Texas -3||14-37||Win||100||26 h 8 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PRIME-TIME ATS SLAUGHTER (Texas -3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Longhorns laying just a field goal at home. I think even though USC is the team that lost last week, the public is just not a believer in this Texas team. So many people thought they were going to make that jump back to being elite in 2018, but that was thrown out the window in their Week 1 loss to Maryland and less than impressive showing against Tulsa to follow it up.
The 2nd half against the Golden Hurricane wasn’t great, but I liked how Texas started out that game. You almost had to wonder if they went into the half up 21-0 and started looking ahead to this game against USC. This is definitely one Texas had circled on the calendar after how they blew that game last year in Los Angeles. Add in this being a home game and it coming at night in front of what will be an electric crowd in Austin and I just don’t think it’s asking a lot for Texas to win this game by more than a field goal.
My biggest thing with USC is I think they are getting way too much respect coming into this season. I know the Trojans recruit well, but anytime you lose a quarterback the caliber of Sam Darnold, there’s going to be some setbacks. I really like the potential of Daniels, but he’s just a kid and we saw him not look nearly as good on the road against Stanford as he did in the opener at home. I think that’s a trend that will keep repeating itself as this season goes on, especially when USC plays on the road against a quality opponent. It’s also worth noting that while Daniels is expected to play, he’s a little banged up, as he suffered an injury to his throwing hand in the loss to the Cardinal.
USC is just 11-27-1 ATS in their last 39 road games and are on a miserable 3-13-1 run ATS over their last 17 games. They have also failed to cover each of their last 6 non-conference games and are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games played in September. Give me the Longhorns -3.
|09-15-18||Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 70||Top||62-7||Loss||-115||25 h 11 m||Show|
50* NCAAF 'SEC' TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Ole Miss/Alabama OVER 70)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER 70 in Saturday's big SEC clash between Ole Miss and Alabama. For starters, these two teams have combined for at least 69 points in each of the last 3 meetings. Last time they played in Oxford, Alabama won 48-43 in a game that had a total of just 53. I know 70 points is a lot, but I just have a hard time seeing these two not reaching that mark.
This isn’t your typical Alabama offense that we have seen in the past under Nick Saban. Sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is the most gifted signal-caller Saban has had in his decade-plus run at Alabama. His ability to shred opposing secondaries, makes this unit almost impossible to stop. You still can’t stop the Crimson Tide from running the football, but if you load the box Tagovailoa is going to make you pay.
There might be some SEC teams that can hold them in check to some degree, but I certainly don’t think one of those is Ole Miss. The Rebels gave up 34.6 ppg last year and don’t look all that improved in 2018. They gave up 486 yards to Texas Tech in their opener and the Red Raiders had to replace their starting QB, leading rusher and 5 of their top 6 pass catchers. They followed that up by allowing 41 points and 629 yards to an FCS school.
I think Alabama has a great shot here of scoring 50 or more points and that means we need just a little bit of help from the Rebels to push this over the total. I know the Crimson Tide defense has looked great in their first two games, but there’s a ton of talent on the Ole Miss offense. Senior quarterback Jordan Ta’amu has been excellent and they got playmakers at both running back and receiver. I think they can have some success against an inexperienced Alabama defense that only returned 3 starers and who will be playing their first true road game.
OVER is 11-1 in the Rebels last 12 home games and 8-2 in their last 10 against a conference opponent. OVER is also 5-0 in Alabama’s last 5 games played in the month of September. Take the OVER 70.
|09-15-18||LSU v. Auburn -10||22-21||Loss||-115||22 h 49 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Auburn -10)
While Auburn has a ton of big games on their schedule, there’s no question this is one they had circled. They haven’t forgot about that ugly collapse against LSU in Baton Rouge last year and revenge is definitely an angle I look to back in the SEC. Going back to 2000, a team that lost as a favorite the previous year is 125-89-7 (58%) ATS in the next meeting. You also have to factor in just how much home field has meant in the series. The road team has lost each of the last 5 meetings and only twice in the last 18 times these teams have played has the home team loss.
While motivation is a huge factor, it’s not the only reason I like Auburn to win here by double-digits. I think Auburn’s defense is going to make life miserable on the LSU offense. Despite winning comfortably against Miami, LSU only had 296 total yards in the win. They also managed just 335 against Southeastern Louisiana and looked lost at times against a FCS defense. Ohio State transfer, Joe Burrow is getting a lot of praise for leading LSU to two wins, but I haven’t been that impressed. It’s one thing to struggle against Miami (11 of 24 for just 140 yards), but to go just 10 of 20 for 151 yards against the Lions is a major concern for me.
I believe for LSU to effectively move the football in this game, Burrows is going to have to be a difference-maker in the passing game. That’s because Auburn has one of the best defensive lines in the country. They held Washington’s star running back, Myles Gaskin to just 75 yards as Washington was forced to attack them thru the air. I just don’t see LSU being able to establish the running game to the point where they can sustain drives without Burrows making some big plays with his arm. I think he’s going to have a really tough time playing well on the road and could see a couple costly turnovers that turn a close game into a blowout.
I also don’t think it’s a given that LSU’s defense is going to be able to contain this Auburn offense, which features one of the best signal callers in the SEC in junior Jarrett Stidham. Keep in mind while they only managed 21 points against Washington, Auburn had 420 total yards and 27 first downs against a Huskies defense that was considered to be one of the best in the country.
It’s also worth noting how these two teams have performed coming off a comfortable win. Auburn is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 off a win by more than 20 points, while LSU is just 1-3-1 in their last 5 off a win by 20 or more. The Tigers are also 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games played in September and Auburn is 15-5 ATS under Gus Malzahn after a game in which they scored at least 42 points. Give me Auburn -10.
|09-15-18||Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois -14||Top||16-24||Loss||-106||22 h 49 m||Show|
50* NCAAF 'MAC' GAME OF THE MONTH (N. Illinois -14)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Northern Illinois laying just two touchdowns at home against a Central Michigan team that just lost at home to Kansas (Jayhawks had lost 46 straight on the road). While the Chippewas did lose by just 15 at Kentucky, that was a much bigger mismatch than the final score would lead on. Kentucky had a 427-255 edge in total yards.
Northern Illinois comes in at 0-2, but that was almost to be expected given they opened up the season at Iowa and at home against Utah. They ended up losing 33-7 to the Hawkeyes, but that was just 3-0 at the half. They were down just 7-6 in the 4th quarter and were still in it until a late pick six by the Utes (lost 17-6).
Sitting at 0-2 the Huskies are way undervalued and ready to lay a whopping on someone. Lucky for them the Chippewas are a team they can do just that against. Not to mention a team they want to beat badly after losing to them in the regular-season finale last year.
Central Michigan only had 280 yards at home against Kansas and turned it over 6 times. This is one of the worst offenses in the FBS and I fully expect Northern Illinois to win here by 20+ points. Give me the Huskies -14!
|09-15-18||Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh +3.5||19-24||Win||100||19 h 55 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS SHOCKER (Pitt +3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with Pitt as a home dog against the Yellow Jackets. I think we are seeing a big overreaction to Pitt’s 51-6 blowout loss at home last week to Penn State. The outcome simply doesn’t do justice to the caliber a team the Panthers are. They were a couple breaks away early in that game from a much different outcome. As for Georgia Tech, I have a lot of concerns with this team’s performance against South Florida. The Yellow Jackets made the Bulls look a lot better than they actually are. Simply put, Georgia Tech should not be favored on the road, especially in conference play.
The biggest key for me is the Panthers offense should have a field day against this Georgia Tech defense. The Yellow Jackets gave up 224 rushing yards and 3 scores on the ground against South Florida and Pitt showed their running game is for real with 245 yards against a good Penn State defense. I look for a big bounce back game from Panthers quarterback Kenny Pickett, who didn’t get to really showcase his arm against the Nittany Lions because of a steady rain.
Not only do I think Pitt will be able to put up points, but I also think the defense could make things difficult on a banged up Georgia Tech offense. The Panthers have their most talented defense since Pat Narduzzi took over and all those returning starters have prepared in years past for this Georgia Tech option offense. The Yellow Jackets lost starting B-back KirVonte Benson for the season in their loss to USF and Benson torched the Panthers last year for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns. Starting quarterback TaQuon Marshall is going to be playing at less than 100% and starting center Kenny Cooper is questionable to play with a foot injury.
I definitely like the revenge factor with Pitt losing last year’s meeting at Georgia 35-17, but I also think this is a really tough spot for the Yellow Jackets. It stings anytime you blow a double-digit lead in the 4th quarter and those games you feel like you should have won are the toughest to bounce back from. Add in the fact that they are hosting Clemson next week, easily their biggest home game of the season and I think there’s a good chance they come out flat against a hungry Pitt team. Give me the Panthers +3.5.
|09-14-18||Georgia State v. Memphis OVER 60||22-59||Win||100||8 h 9 m||Show|
40* NCAAF FRIDAY OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 60)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER. One of the big reasons that the Tigers offense struggled against Navy last week is the game was play in sloppy conditions with a steady rain making it less than ideal for Memphis' high-powered passing attack. Those conditions certainly played a part in the Tigers turning it over 4 times.
Memphis' offense has to feel like they gave that game away and I look for them to come out looking to lay it on the Panthers. I just don't see Georgia State being able to do anything to stop them. The Panthers were torched by NC State's Ryan Finley this past Saturday, as Finley went 31 of 38 for 370 yards. They also let Kennesaw State's Chandler Burks average 10.6 yards/attempt in their near loss to the Owls at home in Week 1.
I wouldn't be shocked at all if Memphis put up 50+ points, which is why I would have to side with them on the spread. However, I do think Georgia State is going to be able to put some points on the board. The Panthers appear to have found something in JUCO quarterback transfer Dan Ellington, who has completed 63% of his attempts for 381 yards with a 3-0 TD-INT ratio.
I know the Memphis defense has looked great the first two games, but one was against a bad Mercer team and the other was against the one-dimensional Navy option offense. Playing on short rest and off that emotional loss, I think the defense could come out flat. I think if we can get a mere 20-points from Georgia State, this one will easily eclipse the mark.
OVER is 7-1 in the Tigers' last 8 non-conference games, 20-8 in their last 28 games at home and 4-1 in their last 5 vs a team from the Sun Belt. Give me the OVER!
|09-13-18||Ravens v. Bengals +1.5||23-34||Win||100||23 h 49 m||Show|
40* RAVENS/BENGALS TNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Bengals +1.5)
As good as Baltimore looked against the Bills, a lot of that had to do with just how bad Buffalo is, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Nathan Peterman is not an NFL quarterback and it’s crazy the Bills went into a season with him as their starter. He was 5 of 18 for 24 yards and threw two interceptions before getting pulled in favor of rookie Josh Allen.
I look for the Ravens defense to have a much tougher time against Andy Dalton and the Bengals. Dalton was sharp against the Colts, completing 21 of 28 for 243 yards and we got a taste of just how dynamic running back Joe Mixon could be this year. Mixon had 95 rushing yards on just 17 attempts and caught 5 passes for 54 yards. Cincinnati also had to be happy with the pay of tight end Tyler Effect, who had 3 catches for 44 yards. It’s not just all about stopping A.J. Green.
The offensive numbers for Baltimore were solid, but a lot of that had to do with the Bills’ offense not being able to sustain a drive. Buffalo didn’t get a first down until the 3rd quarter. While Joe Flacco threw for 236 yards and 3 scores, the Ravens running game struggled to get going. Baltimore had just 117 yards on 34 attempts for just 3.4 yards/carry and that was with Lamar Jackson accounting for 39 yards on 7 attempts (5.9 yards/carry).
Cincinnati’s defense struggled to contain Luck on the road, but I think that will be the case for most defenses when they travel to Indy. They were much better against the run, allowing just 75 yards on 22 attempts. I think if they can slow down Baltimore’s ground game, they can get after Flacco and make things difficult on the Ravens offense.
Say what you want about Dalton, but he’s 24-13 ATS as a starter at home, including an impressive 7-1 ATS mark when his team is listed as a home dog. As for Flacco, he’s just 5-7 ATS as a road favorite and 3-6 ATS in 9 meetings against the Bengals with Marvin Lewis as the head coach. Give me Cincinnati +1.5!
|09-13-18||Boston College -4.5 v. Wake Forest||Top||41-34||Win||100||20 h 60 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Boston College -4.5)
As much as I don’t like road favorites in these weekday games, I would have to leans towards laying the points with the Eagles in this one. I just feel like Boston College is the far superior team in this matchup. I know they aren’t ranked right now, but I believe it’s only a matter of time before the Eagles crack the Top 25.
Not only is BC the more talented team, but I love that they are playing with revenge from last year’s ugly 24-point loss at home to Wake Forest. Another huge factor here is home field hasn’t exactly meant a lot in this series. In fact, the road team has won outright each of the last 4 years.
I also feel like this Boston College team is built to win games on the road. The Eagles can ground and pound you on offense and are very sound defensively. They have all 5 starters back on the offensive line and one of the best running backs in the country in sophomore A.J. Dillion. As for the defense, that side of the ball has been the strength of this team under head coach Steve Addazio and with 5 of their top 6 tacklers back from last year, they should be one of the best the ACC has to offer.
I also want to point out that the Eagles are more than capable of attacking teams through the air. Sophomore quarterback Anthony Brown started 10 games as a freshman and he’s got his top 6 receivers back. Not to mention, he’s going to really benefit from defenses having to load the box. This has the makings of the best offense in the Addazio era.
Wake Forest is a program on the rise under head coach Dave Clawson, but they figure to come into this fight short-handed. Projected starting quarterback Kendall Hilton won’t be available until next week, as he finishes up serving a 3-game suspension. They have already lost starting left tackle Justin Herron and running back Arkeem Byrd to season ending injuries. Starting safety Cameron Glenn (last year’s leading tackler) and starting corner Ameri Henderson are also both questionable to play, as is one of their top returning wide outs in Scotty Washington.
The Demon Deacons were fortunate to leave New Orleans with a win over Tulane in their opener and while they ended up beating Towson by 31-points, they were tied 14-14 at the end of the 1st quarter and really didn’t separate themselves until Gerg Dortch returned two punts for touchdowns in the 2nd quarter. Turnovers have also been a problem, as Wake has already coughed it up 5 times after only giving it away 13 times all of last year.
All these things are going to make it very difficult for Demon Deacons to keep this game close. Give me the Eagles -6.5!
|09-10-18||Jets v. Lions -7||48-17||Loss||-100||7 h 53 m||Show|
40* NFL MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ATS KNOCKOUT (Lions -7)
There's a lot of people who are excited about the Jets with rookie Sam Darnold at quarterback, but I just have to go with Detroit at home in this one. Darnold is talented, but has a long way to go. I just don't trust his decision making and think he's going to have a difficult time playing well on the road in what's going to be a very hostile environment. My biggest concern here is the Jets not being able to run the ball effectively, which is really going to put the pressure on Darnold. I also think New York's defense is going to have a really tough time slowing down Stafford and that Lions offense. Stafford has a ton of weapons at his disposal and I love the addition of LeGarrette Blount to help in short-yardage situations, an area they really struggled with in past years. I also think rookie Kerryon Johnson could be a difference-maker. The Jets will be without starting safety Marcus Made, as well as starting linebacker Josh Martin. Two big losses. I also don't think NY did much to improve a dreadful pass rush that finished 28th in the league last year in sacks. Give me the Lions -7!
|09-09-18||Cowboys +3 v. Panthers||8-16||Loss||-100||29 h 43 m||Show|
40* NFL UNDERDOG ATS SHOCKER (Cowboys +3)
With all the hype around the Eagles off their Super Bowl and the Giants getting Saquon Barkley, I think a lot of people are sleeping on Dallas in the NFC East. The Cowboys won 9 games last year despite Zeke missing almost half the season and he just wasn't the same guy with all the off the field shit he had to deal with. People are going to say Prescott has no one to throw to after the loss of Dez Byrant and Jason Witten. While Witten's departure is a big one, Bryant was a cancer in that locker room. I think Prescott will be much better taking what the defense gives him and he's going to have his chances with how much teams will have to load the box to stop the run. Carolina's got some big injuries up front on the offensive line and this Dallas defense is young and talented. I think the Cowboys go into Carolina and get the win. Give me Dallas +3!
|09-09-18||Redskins v. Cardinals -1||Top||24-6||Loss||-112||29 h 43 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals -1)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cardinals at basically a pick'em at home against the Redskins. Arizona has an underrated homefield edge and I think this team is going into the 2018 season with a chip on their shoulder. No one is giving them any respect, despite the fact that they managed to win 8 games with their best offensive player, David Johnson, playing in just one game and starting QB, Carson Palmer, missing half the season. Johnson is back healthy and is one of the most dynamic backs in the league and Arizona did a more than adequate job of replacing Palmer with veteran Sam Bradford. As for the Redskins, I think this team is going to be in trouble. Alex Smith isn't going to be the same quarterback under Jay Gruden as he was under Andy Reid and he doesn't have near the weapons at his disposal. Give me the Cardinals -1!
|09-09-18||Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 48||Top||38-28||Win||100||29 h 13 m||Show|
50* NFL WEEK 1 TOTAL OF THE YEAR (Over 48)
I'll likely be on a lot of OVERs in Chiefs' games this year. I think Kansas City's offense is going to light the NFL on fire with Mahomes and all those playmakers at his disposal. The key here is that they are going to be pressed into scoring a lot, because the defense could be a weakness, especially with Eric Berry sidelined (doubtful). KC isn't the only team in this fight that will be missing an elite defensive player. Joey Bosa is not going to play for the Chargers, who are already without defensive tackle Corey Liuget, as he serves a 4-game suspension. I look for both teams to move it up and down the field with a lot of big plays through the air that lead to quick scores and this one flying over the total. Give me the OVER 48!
|09-09-18||49ers v. Vikings -6.5||16-24||Win||100||26 h 8 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Vikings -6.5)
I'm not buying all the hype around Jimmy G and the 49ers going into 2018. I'm not saying he isn't going to be a great quarterback, but let's not get carried away with how a bad team finished strong. I think 49ers still have a long way to go in terms of talent to compete with the top teams in this league and Minnesota might just be the most talented team in the NFC. One thing is for sure, the Vikings have an elite defense and I expect them to show out at home against SF. I also think people are underestimating the addition of Kirk Cousins. The guy is a legit quarterback and is finally going to play on a team that can run the football and get stops on the defensive side of the ball. I don't think it's asking a lot for Minnesota to win by a touchdown. Note they won by an average of double-digits at home last year. Give me the Vikings -6.5!
|09-09-18||Titans v. Dolphins +2||20-27||Win||100||25 h 17 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS KNOCKOUT (Dolphins +2)
No way should the Titans be favored on the road here. Tennessee is getting way too much after making the playoffs last year. The Titans were no where near as good as their record would indicate and might be the worst team in their own division with Andrew Luck back in Indy. It's going to be hot and humid in Miami on Sunday and that's a big edge for the Dolphins, who I think are flying under the radar. Last year was a lost cause for Miami when starting QB Ryan Tannehill was lost before the season ever started. Tannehill has looked sharp in the preseason and this is a team that won 10-games in 2016 with him as the starter. Give me the Dolphins +2!
|09-08-18||Kentucky v. Florida -13.5||27-16||Loss||-105||26 h 18 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Florida -13.5)
There's been no shortage of talent in Gainesville and now they have a legit head coach in Dan Mullen, who did an amazing job developing and improving the talent he had to work with at Mississippi State. With 19 starters back and off an ugly 4-7 season, I think the Gators or primed to be one of the most improved teams in the country and got a legit shot at knocking off Georgia for the SEC East title.
I got a lot of respect for what Mark Stoops has done with Kentucky, but they just don't have the talent to keep this game close on the road against a loaded Florida team. The atmosphere is going to be electric at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium and that's going to spell trouble for Wildcats first year starter Terry Wilson. Keep in mind we saw a similar priced game the last time Kentucky visited Florida in 2015 (+16) and the Gators won that going away 45-7.
Favorites of 10.5 to 21 points who have 9 or more offensive starters returning and coming off a game where they gained 6.25 or more yards/play are 57-25 (70%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. These teams on average have won by 22 ppg and I fully expect the Gators to win here by at least 21 and all we need is for them to win by 14. Give me Florida -13.5!
|09-08-18||Arkansas -13.5 v. Colorado State||Top||27-34||Loss||-110||26 h 14 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Arkansas -13.5)
I'll gladly back the Razorbacks laying less than two touchdowns against Colorado State. The Rams are way down this year, as they only bring back 9 starters from a team that only went 7-6 a year ago. The offense hasn't been good in the first two games and that's no surprise. They had just 7 points midway thru the 3rd quarter against a horrible Hawaii defense and managed just 13 points and 284 yards against Colorado in their second game. Not only did they lose one of their all-time passing leaders in Nick Stevens, but they lost a 1,400 yard back and receiver.
Arkansas gets overlooked by a lot of people because they play in the loaded SEC West, but the Razorbacks are going to surprise some people in Chad Morris' first season. Arkansas has 17 returning starters back from last year. The put up 55 potions behind a high-powered passing attack that accounted for 353 yards in the opening win against Eastern Illinois.
In Colorado State's first two games their secondary has been absolutely torched, giving up 418 passing yards to Hawaii and 338 against the Buffaloes (also allowed 258 yards rushing to Colorado). With the limitations of the offense, this team has no shot of keeping this game close. Give me the Razorbacks -13.5!
|09-08-18||Colorado v. Nebraska -3||Top||33-28||Loss||-110||22 h 28 m||Show|
50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Nebraska -3)
I have really high expectations for Nebraska this season and just can't pass up on the Cornhuskers only laying a field goal at home against the Buffaloes. Especially given how fired up Nebraska is going to be for this game, as their opener was canceled because of weather.
I think people are expecting a much improved Cornhuskers offense under new head coach Scott Frost, but I don't think people outside of Lincoln are aware of the talent they have at quarterback in true freshman Adrian Martinez. He's flashed in practice and was a Frost recruit. I think he's going to have the Nebraska offense firing on all cylinders.
I know Colorado held Colorado State to just 13 points, but they held the Rams to just 3 points last year and would up being a pretty average defensive team. Keep in mind that's a Colorado State defense that had just 7 points midway through the 3rd quarter against an awful Hawaii defense.
The other thing people are going to over look with Nebraska is their defense, which is coming off a horrific 2017 season, where they gave up 36.4 ppg and 436 ypg. New defensive coordinator Erik Chinander came over with Frost from UCF and in his first season with the Knights he took a defense that had allowed 37.7 ppg the previous year to allowing just 24.6 ppg. I think this one could get ugly. Give me Nebraska -3!
|09-08-18||Mississippi State -7 v. Kansas State||31-10||Win||100||19 h 58 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Mississippi St -7)
As much as I don't like betting against Kansas State as a home dog, I don’t see anyway the Wildcats can keep this within double-digits.
I thought the Bulldogs hire of Moorehead was one of the most underrated coaching hires of the entire offseason. Moorehead spent the last two years as the OC for Penn State and was the mastermind behind the Nittany Lions revival. When he took over at Penn State the Nittany Lions averaged just 23.2 ppg the previous year. In his first season he had them scoring 37.6 ppg.
I don't think people realize just how potent this Mississippi State offense is going to be.A lot of people are going to shrug off the 63 points and over 600+ yards of total offense they put up in their opener because it came against SF Austin. Not me. The Bulldogs did all of that without starting quarterback Nick Fitzgerald, who was suspended for the first game.
I just don’t see Kansas State being able to keep pace offensively in this one. The Wildcats were lucky to come away with a 27-24 win at home over South Dakota in their opener at home, as they were getting dominated basically the entire game. I just don’t know how this team is going to be able to move the football against this loaded Mississippi State defense.
For Kansas State’s offense to be effective they have to be able to run the football. I don’t see that happening against this loaded Mississippi State defensive line, which is right there with Alabama and Georgia as one of the best defensive lines in the SEC and not far behind the likes of Ohio State and Clemson. Give me the Bulldogs -7!
|09-08-18||Georgia Tech -3 v. South Florida||38-49||Loss||-115||19 h 46 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS NO-BRAINER (Georgia Tech -3)
I'll gladly lay just a field goal with Georgia Tech against USF. The Yellow Jackets are coming off a 5-6 campaign, but rarely does this team struggle in back-to-back years. They went 3-9 in 2015 and followed that up by going 9-4. With 13 starters back, including 8 on offense, I expect Georgia Tech to be a much stronger team in 2018.
They certainly looked the par in their 41-0 blowout win over Alcorn State in their opener. Georgia Tech piled on 543 yards, while the defense held the Braves to just 146 yards. I look for the Yellow Jackets to have no problem running all over a South Florida defense that only brings back 5 starters and had to replace 3 of 4 starters on the defensive line.
I also think the Bulls are going to be way down offensively this year. Not only did they lose their do it all quarterback in Quinton Flowers, but they lost their top two running backs and No. 1 receiver. The thing is this team is still getting a ton of respect from going 21-4 over the last 2 seasons. Now is the time to fade the Bulls. Give me Georgia Tech -3!
|09-07-18||TCU -22 v. SMU||42-12||Win||100||10 h 20 m||Show|
40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS SLAUGHTER (TCU -22)
I’m not a huge fan of playing big road favorites in weekday games. Especially knowing the public will be all over the same side and TCU having a massive game on deck against Ohio State next week. With that said, I can't help myself but lay the big number with the Horned Frogs.
I just have a hard time seeing how SMU can keep this game close after how poorly their offense played against North Texas. A team they beat last year 54-32. The Mustangs finished the game with a mere 256 yards and most of that came in garbage time, as they couldn’t even get first downs the first 3 quarters of that game (208 of their 256 total yards came in the 4th quarter, It's also worth pointing out the offensive line allowed 9 sacks.
I think that’s a really bad sign for SMU going forward, as the biggest thing for me with this team is how the offense would fair after losing Morris. I wasn’t a fan at all of the hire of Sonny Dykes and that performance against the Mean Green tells me this team is in some serious trouble in 2018.
If they can’t get first downs against North Texas, how in the heck are they going to move the ball against a TCU defense that many believe have the best defense in the Big 12. You have to think the Horned Frogs are going to score at will on this SMU defense. The Mustangs could score in the 20’s and still not cover the spread.
As far as this being a bad spot to take TCU because of the lookahead to Ohio State, I think there’s two key things that will keep the Horned Frogs from laying an egg. The first is this being the only game on the board. Players love showing out in nationally televised prime time games.
The other is they came out flat last year against SMU and found themselves luckily to only be down 19-7 early in the 2nd quarter. They ended up winning that game by a final score of 56-36. I have a hard time seeing Gary Patterson letting his team come out sluggish against the same opponent two years in a row. Give me the Horned Frogs -22!
It’s also worth noting that TCU is 34-18 ATS under Patterson off a win as a favorite where the team failed to cover the spread, while SMU is a mere 4-19 ATS in their last 23 home games off a contest where they were outgained by 225 or more yards. Give me the Horned Frogs -21.5!
|09-06-18||Falcons +1.5 v. Eagles||Top||12-18||Loss||-109||10 h 46 m||Show|
50* FALCONS/EAGLES VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Falcons +1.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Atlanta on the road against the defending champs. No team had to be more sick about the Eagles going on to win the Super Bowl than the Falcons. That’s because Atlanta had to feel like they should have won that game against Philadelphia in the playoffs.
The Falcons had to be ecstatic when the schedule was released. Not only do they get a chance at revenge, but they have a shot at ruining what will be special night for Eagles’ fans. Not to mention it’s a prime time game, where everyone will be glued to the TV for the first game of a new season.
I’m not just taking the Falcons because of the huge motivation angle, but I think they are the better team in this matchup. The Eagles may have won the Super Bowl without Wentz, but it’s absurd to think they are just as good with Foles. Wentz being out for this game is massive, as I think Foles will struggle to come close to how he played in the Super Bowl. Especially given the Eagles top wide out, Alshon Jeffrey, is doubtful to play. Not to mention the offense was atrocious with Foles in the preseason.
I just don’t see the Eagles being able to keep pace offensively with Matt Ryan and the Falcons. A lot of people criticized Atlanta’s offense last year because it wasn’t as good as the 2016 version under Kyle Shanahan. The Falcons still managed to finish in the Top 10 in total offense. They should be even better in year-two under offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian and I love the addition of rookie wideout Calvin Ridley, who they took in the 1st round.
I also don’t think Atlanta’s defense gets near the respect they deserve. Dan Quinn has done a masterful job of turning the Falcons into one of the top defensive teams in the league. Atlanta was 9th in total defense (318.4 ypg) and 8th in scoring defense (19.7 ppg) last year. Given how young they were on that side of the ball and how much talent they have coming back, there’s no reason to think they won’t continue to get better. Give me the Falcons +1.5!
|09-03-18||Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State||24-3||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
40* FSU/VA TECH LABOR DAY ATS MASSACRE (Va Tech +7.5)
I think the perception with Florida State is that they are going to bounce back in a big way in 2018, but I’m not completely sold on the Seminoles returning to elite status. I know Taggert has a great background, but there’s a bit of a learning curve when you making a coaching change. FSU is undergoing scheme changes on both sides of the ball. Simply put, I think the loss of Fisher is going to have a big impact on this team in a negative way.
I’m not saying the Seminoles shouldn’t be favored at home, but laying over a touchdown is a bit much against a Virginia Tech program that appears on the rise under Fuente. There’s been a lot of talk about how young the Hokies are going to be defensively and I think that’s scaring people away from this team. While they will be young, they still have a ton of talent and one of the best defensive coordinators in the game in Bud Foster.
While the lack of experience coming back on defense is getting a lot of publicity with Virginia Tech, people are overlooking how much Florida State lost from their stop unit. In fact, the Seminoles have fewer starters (4) coming back on defense than the Hokies (5). FSU lost their top 4 tacklers and 6 of their top 8 (3 players taken in first 4 rounds of NFL draft).
I know the Seminoles will have Deondre Fancois back at quarterback, but he could be working with a depleted receiving corps. Last year’s leading wide out, Nyqwan Murray is questionable with a knee injury and projected starter D.J. Matthews is questionable with a back injury.
I just don’t see Florida State running away with this game to where they can cover this number and wouldn’t be shocked if they lost the game outright. Give me the Hokies +7.5!
|09-02-18||Miami-FL -3 v. LSU||17-33||Loss||-110||8 h 55 m||Show|
40* NCAAF MIAMI/LSU ATS NO-BRAINER (Miami -3)
Mark Richt has this program headed back to being a legit national title contender. With 14 starters back (7 offense, 7 defense), I believe they are fully capable of winning the ACC and making the 4-team playoff..
It’s hard to find a weakness with this Miami team. The offense should be even better than it was a year ago. They get back senior quarterback Malik Rosier, who threw for over 3,000 yards with 26 touchdowns and another 468 yards and 5 scores on the ground. Rosier won’t have to do it all, as Miami gets back talented running back Travis Homer and are loaded up front on the offensive line. The Hurricanes do lose their top 2 receivers, but have a ton of big recruits ready to step in.
Defensively Miami should field one of the best stop units in the country. They have their top 5 tacklers back from last year’s team that allowed just 21.0 ppg and 363 ypg. They know how to get to the quarterback (44 sacks last year) and were one of the best in the country at forcing turnovers. Miami only lost the turnover battle twice all of last season.
I know LSU recruits extremely well and have some nice talent on the roster, but I just don’t have a good feeling about this program. I’m not a fan of Orgeron and believe this will be his last year in Baton Rouge. The biggest thing for me is the lack of experience that LSU has coming back for 2018. Not only do they have just 10 starters come back, but they bring back just 47 lettermen (only Kentucky has fewer returning lettermen in the SEC).
While there’s a good chance the defense will be sharp, I have major concerns with the offense, which has to replace their starting quarterback, top 4 rushers and top 3 receivers from last year. I know people are excited about Ohio State transfer Joe Burrow taking over at quarterback, but I’m not sold on him stepping in and putting up big numbers. Give me Miami -3!
|09-01-18||BYU +12 v. Arizona||28-23||Win||100||30 h 8 m||Show|
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS DESTROYER (BYU +12)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Cougars as a double-digit dog at Arizona. The Wildcats are getting a ton of love going into the season because of all the hype surrounding quarterback Khalil Tate. On the flip side of this, BYU isn't exactly a team the public wants to back after they went just 4-9 last year. I believe it's created some big time value with the Cougars, who keep in mind beat Arizona in the opener a couple years ago as a 1-point favorite.
Tate is a good player and his big runs can be exciting, but teams started to key on him more as last season progressed and his production declined. Arizona as a team went just 1-4 in their final 5 games.
It's hard to explain the falloff for BYU last year, but you can't overlook the fact that they had to play LSU, Utah and Wisconsin in a 3-game stretch after opening with Portland St. Starting quarterback Tanner Magnum was banged up early and was never really himself, which had a lot to do with the team not living up to their potential. He's back healthy and the Cougars have 14 starters back. They also have 60 total lettermen returning, making them one of the Top 10 most experienced teams in the country.
I think this team is going to be greatly improved and wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. Give me the Cougars +12!
|09-01-18||Michigan +1.5 v. Notre Dame||Top||17-24||Loss||-110||27 h 40 m||Show|
50* NCAAF PRIME TIME SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Michigan +1.5)
Not to take anything away from Notre Dame, who I think is without a doubt one of the Top 25 most talented teams in the country, I just like Michigan that much more.
I know the Wolverines have struggled to win the big games since Harbaugh took over, but a lot of that had to do with the lack of talent he had to work with at the quarterback position. In his first year he had to rely on Iowa transfer Jake Rudock. In year two it was Wilson Speight and last year it was a combination of Speight, John O’Korn and Brandon Peters. I think the addition of Shea Patterson finally gives Harbuagh the talent at quarterback to not just win the Big Ten, but the national championship.
Keep in mind we saw Michigan average 40.3 ppg in 2016 with Speight at quarterback. With all of their top skill players back and a solid offensive line that will have three starters back, I have a hard time believing this won’t be the most prolific offense of the Harbaugh era in Ann Arbor.
If the offense rounds into the form most are expecting, it’s going to be extremely difficult for teams to score enough to beat this team. Michigan’s defense is absolutely loaded with NFL talent and just might be the best stop unit in the country. They have 9 starters back from a unit that only gave up 18.8 ppg and 271 ypg. Keep in mind they put up those ridiculous numbers last year with a mere 1 starter back from the previous season.
I just don’t see Notre Dame being able to generate enough offense to win this game. Wimbush is a much bigger threat to run the ball than he is to throw it. He only completed 49.5% of his pass attempts last year and will be working behind an offensive line that has to replace two 1st round draft picks. The Irish also lose leading rusher Josh Adams and his replacement, senior Dexter Williams, is suspended for the first 4 games. Give me the Wolverines +1.5!
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