|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|12-10-18||Vikings +3 v. Seahawks||7-21||Loss||-100||9 h 43 m||Show|
40* VIKINGS/SEAHAWKS MNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Vikings +3)
No disrespect to Seattle, but I just don’t think this team is the real deal. They have been very fortunate in a number of games and outside of their two games against the Rams, they really haven’t played anyone. The only team they have beat that currently has a winning record is the Cowboys and that was way back in Week 3 when Dallas was lost offensively.
Their 43-16 win over the 49ers looks great if you just focus on the final score, but they let Nick Mullens complete 30 of 48 attempts for 414 yards and 2 scores. In their previous win at Carolina, they were outgained by the Panthers 476-397 and that was more of the Panthers beating themselves than anything. Even the game before that, where they beat the Packers 27-24 at home, they trailed 14-3 early and were down 4 late in the 4th quarter.
As for Minnesota, I think now is the time to jump on the Vikings after that ugly loss at New England. I think people are overreacting to that game. A lot of teams go to Foxboro in December and don’t play well. The Vikings only other two losses since Week 4 are a loss at home to the Saints and a loss at Chicago.
I also like the matchup here. I think Seattle’s defense can be exposed and they come in ranked just 17th against the run (116.8 ypg) and 18th vs the pass (266.5 ypg). On the flip side of this, the Seahawks offense is all about their running game, which leads the league at 148.8 ypg. The Vikings aren’t a team you want to line up against and try to pound the rock. Minnesota is 7th at stopping the run, giving up only 99.2 ypg and 3.7 yards/carry. Vikings are also 10th vs the pass, so don’t expect Russell Wilson to save the day.
History is also on our side, as you don’t want to be betting on the Seahawks off a big win. Seattle is a mere 4-17 ATS in their last 21 off a win over a division rival by 21 or more and 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games when off a win by 21 or more against any opponent.
Minnesota is 20-8 ATS under Mike Zimmer when coming off a loss and 14-4 ATS when that previous loss was on the road. Give me the Vikings +3!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-09-18||Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys||23-29||Loss||-115||25 h 36 m||Show|
40* NFL UNDERDOG ATS SLAUGHTER (Eagles +3.5)
Even though the Eagles have burned me on multiple occasions this season, I'm grabbing the points with Philadelphia. This is just one of those games that I don’t see being decided until the 4th quarter and that makes the 3.5-points that much more valuable. It wouldn’t surprised me at all if this thing came down to a field goal in the final minutes. Keep in mind it was 20-20 with less than 4 minutes to play in the first meeting between these two teams.
I know there’s a lot of excitement right now with the Cowboys and their 4-game winning streak, but I’ve still got major concerns with the offense. It just relies so much on the running game that they are going to constantly find themselves in close games. All 4 wins during this streak have come by 8-points or less.
As for the Eagles, I think there’s some legit signs that this team could be getting ready to peak offensively. The run game has been greatly improved since they started giving rookie Josh Adams the bulk of the carries. They also just recently got back Darren Sproles, who I think is going to be huge coming out of the backfield to negate all that pressure Dallas likes to bring. Wide out Golden Tate, who they acquired in a trade is also coming off his best game, catching 7 passes for 85 yards and a score.
I know it hasn’t been up to the ridiculous level that he was playing at prior to getting hurt last year, but I like Carson Wentz to deliver in the big game and there’s not been a bigger game to date for Philadelphia than this one. That’s another thing. Dallas is coming off a massive upset win at home and those are the type of games that are tough to bounce back from.
Unlike the Eagles, their backs aren’t up against the wall and it’s not easy beating a team from your same division twice in one year (Dallas won 27-20 in WK 10). In fact, you have to go back to 2012 to find the last time the same team in this series won both games during the regular-season.
It’s also worth pointing out just how dominant the road team has been at covering the spread. In the last 14 meetings the road team is 11-3 ATS. Philadelphia is also 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games when revenging a same season loss. Give me the Eagles +3.5!
|12-09-18||Ravens v. Chiefs -6||24-27||Loss||-115||21 h 28 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Chiefs -6)
Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 at home this season, where they have outscored opponents by 16.2 points/game. That’s not just the result of a couple blowouts either. All 5 of the Chiefs wins at home have come by at least a touchdown.
I don’t think it’s going to be any different against the Ravens, who I think are a bit overvalued right now. Not to take anything away from Lamar Jackson and his 3-0 record as a starter, but it’s come against teams who are out of the playoff race in the Bengals, Raiders and Falcons.
I also think we are getting a good price on the Chiefs here due to the fact that they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. There’s also going to be those that think the Ravens have a shot here because of their defense. They were saying the same thing when the Jaguars came to Kansas City back in Week 5 and the Chiefs did whatever they wanted in a 30-14 victory.
I also think there’s some doubters out there with KC now that they no longer have Kareem Hunt. I’m not going to say they are better without him, but I also don’t think his absence is that big a deal with this team. As long as they have a healthy Patrick Mahomes and all those weapons on the outside, defenses will have no choice but to respect the pass and that’s going to allow for whoever runs to pick up big yards.
The Chiefs rushed for 174 yards in their first game without Hunt, which was their best mark since Week 7 and second highest total of the season. The offense has also played the last few games without wideout Sammy Watkins, but he’s back practicing and expected to suit up.
As for the defense, I think the Chiefs are more than capable of slowing down the Ravens offense. While Kansas City is giving up 27.2 ppg, they are only allowing 17.6 ppg at home. That stop unit really feeds off the home crowd, which I think is the best in the league when this team is playing well.
I actually think it works in Kansas City’s favor that Jackson is getting the start, because I don’t think you can beat this team without being able to throw the football effectively. Jackson hasn’t thrown for more than 180 yards in any start and has just 1 TD pass to 3 interceptions. If Baltimore’s defense struggles at all against that KC offense early, things could spiral out of control if the Chiefs get a double-digit lead and the Ravens are forced to throw more than they would like.
Chiefs are 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons as a home favorite of 7 points or less, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs a team from the AFC and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a wining record. Ravens on the other hand have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. Give me Kansas City -6!
|12-09-18||Giants -3 v. Redskins||Top||40-16||Win||103||21 h 14 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Giants -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants laying just a field goal on the road against the Mark Sanchez led Redskins. It wasn’t that long ago Washington was on top the NFC East and thinking playoffs. Now that they have lost their top two quarterbacks, they know how this thing is going to end.
I’m also liking what I’ve seen from New York of late. Had the Giants not blown that 19-3 lead against the Eagles a couple weeks ago, they would be riding a 4-game winning streak and still very much alive at 5-7. I know the argument now is there’s nothing for them to play for, but I see no reason for them to not keep fighting and there’s definitely motivation here to get revenge against division rival.
The biggest thing for me is that I have a really hard time seeing that Redskins offense doing a whole lot with Sanchez under center. He attempted 21 passes and while he completed 13, it was for just 100 yards (4.8 yards/attempt). He also threw an interception and was sacked twice. Washington’s offense as a whole had just 235 yards and 90 of those came on one run by Adrian Peterson. Sanchez has made 6 starts the last 3 seasons and his team is both 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS, and have been outscored by nearly 10.7 ppg.
It’s also worth noting that the Redskins defense has really struggled of late. In their last 3 games they are giving up 27.3 ppg and 386.7 ypg. Their weakness defensively this season has been defending the pass, but they are struggling against the run as well. They have allowed at least 130 rushing yards in each of their last 3. Look for rookie Saquon Barkley to have a big game and that should open up things for Eli Manning and OBJ in the passing game.
Giants have covered 5 straight road games and are a good team to back away from home when they are covering. New York is 34-16 ATS in their last 50 road games when they come in having covered 2 or more games in a row. Redskins are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football last week and are a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing the Sunday after a MNF contest. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC East. Give me the Giants -3!
|12-09-18||Falcons v. Packers -4||20-34||Win||100||21 h 13 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS MASSACRE (Packers -4)
I'll take my chances with Green Bay covering the short number here at home against the Falcons. A big reason for that is the fact that they fired McCarthy. A move I completely agree with given how this team has underperformed.
It just feels like anytime a head coach gets fired in the middle of the season, they come out and play one of their best games the next time they take the field. I think some of that is they feel responsible for their coach losing his job and they also realize their jobs are no longer safe, so there’s an urgency to perform well.
I also think that as long as Aaron Rodgers is starting and the Packers are mathematically still alive for a playoff spot, they are going to keep fighting. This team has been in this spot before with their backs against the wall and delivered, so they have no reason to not go out without a fight.
Another thing for me is I think this Atlanta's offense is broken right now. The Falcons haven’t reached the 20-point mark in any of their last 4 games. They have absolutely zero threat of a running game right now (52.8 ypg last 4) and last week against the Ravens were held to just 97 passing yards. I think offensive coordinator Greg Sarkisian is on his final straw and the bigger issue is the Falcons can’t protect Ryan. He’s been sacked 36 times in 12 games (previous high for a season is 44).
I personally have a hard time seeing them snapping out of that funk in this one. I just don’t like these dome teams playing on the road late in the year. The temperature for this game is expected to be in the mid to low 20s. That’s no fun to play in, especially for a team that’s not use to it and one that really has nothing to play for.
I know the Packers just lost as a big home favorite, but they are still 25-13 ATS with Rodgers at quarterback when the game is played at Lambeau Field and 23-13 in his last 36 as a home favorite.
Green Bay has also compiled an impressive 62-39 ATS record over the final 4 weeks of the regular season and are 9-3 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me the Packers -4!
|12-08-18||Navy +8 v. Army||Top||10-17||Win||100||5 h 45 m||Show|
50* ARMY/NAVY VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Navy +8)
I'll gladly grab the touchdown plus with the Midshipmen. I just think this is too many points to pass up in a game that figures to be low scoring. I know the records are miles apart, but I don’t think there’s as big a gap in talent as a lot of people think.
I think a lot of people are going to fall into the trap of overreacting to the fact that Army’s only two losses were true road games against Duke and Oklahoma (lost in OT 28-21). The rest of their resume isn’t anything to get excited about and they easily could have lost a few more than they did.
Navy played the much tougher schedule and I think the Midshipmen showed some positives down the stretch. They went on the road and gave UCF a scare, losing by a final score of 35-24. They then knocked off Tulsa at home and nearly had that epic comeback last time out at Tulane.
I also think the roles are reversed here. Army has been the big underdog in this series for nearly two decades and now they are favored for the first since 2001. Underdog has covered the spread in this game 6 of the last 7 years and I don’t think it’s out of the question that we get our third straight underdog to win the game outright.
A lot of people are going to point to Navy’s defense as the big weakness that will allow the Black Knights to get the win and cover, but Army is a mere 11-25 ATS in there last 36 games vs teams who allow 34 or more points/game. Black Knights are also just 3-9 ATS last 12 vs a team with a losing record. Midshipmen are an impressive 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. Give me Navy +8!
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans -5||9-30||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
40* TITANS/JAGUARS TNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Titans -5)
I'll take my chances here with the Titans at home, as there’s nothing about the Jags upset win over the Colts that makes me think it’s a sign of things to come.
The reality here is the Jaguars had no business winning a game where they totaled just 211 yards and 6 points. Had the Colts just kicked field goals instead of going for it on 4th down, they likely win the game outright. I also think Indianapolis’ offense is a bit out of sync with the injury to starting center Ryan Kelly, but either way they should have won that game.
I get that enough is enough for the Jaguars and wanting to go a different direction than Blake Bortles, but Cody Kessler is a downgrade at the position. Jacksonville is also running an out-dated offense with lackluster weapons outside of running back Leonard Fournette.
I just think given how hard it was for Jacksonville to get 1st downs at home against a mediocre Colts defense, they are going to have a horrible time putting up points against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee comes in ranked 3rd in the NFL, giving up just 315.6 ypg and are 6th in scoring defense, allowing only 20.4 ppg.
Let’s not forget when these two teams met up in Week 3, the Titans held Jacksonville to just 232 total yards and 12 first downs. Jags were without Fournette, but I don’t think he makes a huge difference with how little the Tennessee defense is going to have to respect the passing game with Kessler at quarterback.
You also can’t ignore just how big an advantage the home team has in these Thursday Night Games. These games are brutal on the road team and given how the Jags are basically playing for just pride with a 4-8 record, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they didn’t show up at all for this game. Either way, I think this line should be closer to a touchdown and not a field goal.
Tennessee is 12-4-1 ATS last 17 home games, including a 7-3 record in their last 10 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Jags are just 1-5-2 ATS last 8 games overall and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 games on the road. Give me the Titans -5!
|12-03-18||Redskins +6 v. Eagles||13-28||Loss||-105||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* REDSKINS/EAGLES MNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Redskins +6)
I get the Eagles were able to rally to beat the Giants and all the talk is about how that win might have saved their season. I’m more focused on the fact that they let New York come into their house and take a 19-3 lead in a game they absolutely had to have.
I just think because the Eagles won it all last year and everyone thought they were going to be this juggernaut and defend their title, we are quick to look for any positive we can and ride with it. I mean they are almost a touchdown favorite at home with a record of 5-6 and having just failed to cover almost the exact same number at home last week against a worst team than the one they are playing.
The public has continued to back the Eagles to this point, so chances are they won’t stop now, especially with Washington playing now without Alex Smith. I like Smith and think he can help a team win a lot of regular-season games, but I don’t think he’s light years better than Colt McCoy.
McCoy did struggle some against Dallas, but that’s a really good Cowboys defense. The Eagles simply aren’t that good of a defensive team. They come in ranked 28th against the pass (294.4 ypg) and are giving up a ridiculous 134.6 rushing yards/game over their last 6 contests. I think Adrian Peterson will be ready to rock on Monday Night Football and Washington will be able to put up some points.
On the flip side of this, I think the Redskins defense is more than capable of slowing down this Eagles offensive attack. Philadelphia’s two highest scoring games this season have both come against the Giants. They haven’t scored more than 24 in any other game and 7 times have failed to score more than 21 points.
I think there’s a really good shot Washington can at worst keep this within 6-points. In fact, I think they are going to pull off the upset and win this game outright. Give me the Redskins +6.
|12-02-18||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 55||40-33||Win||100||24 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55)
|12-02-18||Panthers -3 v. Bucs||17-24||Loss||-125||91 h 20 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Panthers -3)
|12-02-18||Browns +6 v. Texans||Top||13-29||Loss||-115||21 h 59 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Browns +6)
|12-01-18||Fresno State -105 v. Boise State||19-16||Win||100||29 h 41 m||Show|
40* FRESNO ST/BOISE ST MWC TITLE GAME WINNER (Fresno St -105)
I'm going to take the Bulldogs on the money line in the MWC Title game against the Broncos.
The public is all over Boise State and I'm not the least bit surprised, seeing how they won the regular-season meeting at home and are basically a pick’em in the rematch. That only makes me like Fresno State that much more, as it just feels like the books are begging for you to take the Broncos (line keeps moving opposite of the public).
What a lot of people will overlook in Boise State’s 24-17 win at home over the Bulldogs back in early November is Fresno State had complete control of that game early. The Bulldogs had a 17-3 lead but Boise State scored touchdowns on each of their first 3 drives to start the 2nd half and that was all she wrote.
A lot of things went right for Boise State, as they converted on 10 of 16 3rd downs. A lot of those came on scrambles by quarterback Brett Rypien. My money is on Fresno State making the proper adjustments and getting off the field and allowing their offense a few more chances. I also think there’s a good possibility that the Bulldogs go better than 20% (2 of 10) on their 3rd down attempts.
I also think there’s a bit of an advantage here for Fresno State in that they have had the West Division locked up for a while and Boise State had to just lay everything on the line just to make it to this game. Revenge is a beautiful motivator in college football and I believe the Bulldogs are going to be celebrating a conference title on the blue turf this Saturday.
Fresno State is a 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog (2-pt favorite at Boise). Broncos are also just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games at home, so that blue turf hasn’t been all that much help at covering the number. Give me Bulldogs!
|12-01-18||Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida||Top||41-56||Loss||-115||70 h 6 m||Show|
50* NCAAF CONF CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR (Memphis +3.5)
I’m going to take the Memphis Tigers +3.5 over the UCF Knights in the AAC Title game. I was already leaning toward taking the Tigers in this game prior to the injury to McKenzie Milton, so no way am I not taking Memphis as a dog without him on the field.
I have zero doubt that the Knights are going to play their hearts out in honor of Milton, but I don’t think they will be any more motivated than the Tigers. Memphis has has lost 7 games the last two seasons combined and 3 of them are against UCF.None more excruciating than the 31-30 home loss earlier this season, where they had a 30-14 lead, didn’t score in the 2nd half and botched the clock when they were driving for a potential game-winning field goal.
Sometimes teams can lose their edge when an opponent loses a player like Milton, but that’s not going to happen with the revenge that Memphis is playing with and a conference title on the line. They certainly didn’t let it affect them last week when they took on Houston without their star quarterback D’Eriq King.
I know there’s more to the Knights than Milton, but there’s no arguing the quarterback is the most important position on the field. When you go from a Heisman contender under center to a backup with little experience, more times than not things aren’t going to go well.
Darriel Mack Jr. will get the nod and he did start the win over ECU earlier this year and played the 2nd half last week against the Bulls. He’s arguably a better runner than Milton, but he’s only completed 49% of his pass attempts and hasn’t thrown a touchdown in 43 attempts.
Keep in mind that’s against two pretty bad defenses in USF and East Carolina, so hard to expect things to magically get better against MemphisI just don’t think the UCF defense will be able to hold up and you can count on the Tigers looking to score every time they touch the ball after blowing that big lead to UCF earlier this season.
I also think this Tigers team is riding a massive wave of momentum. It would have been easy for this team to just go through the motions after starting 1-3 in league play, but they rallied the troops and can win a title and finally put an end to this UCF winning streak.Give me the Tigers +3.5!
|12-01-18||UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 44.5||27-25||Loss||-102||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take the UNDER 44.5 in this one. I just think given the matchup and the familiarity with preparing for the same team two weeks in a row, is going to lead to a defensive battle.
I know homefield was on the line, but I really think UAB was playing possum in that game last week. I mean the Blazers finished the game with 89 total yards and were outgained by 300. I think to them it was more valuable to lose that game and now show Middle Tennessee anything that might help them win this week.
I certainly don’t expect the Blue Raiders to pile on 27 points and for Brent Stockstill to go 22 of 29 for 261 yards and 2 scores. UAB’s defense is much better than that. In fact, they are 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 387.2 ypg and are 7th nationally in defending the pass (166.3 ypg).
I also think that Middle Tennessee offense could be negated some by Mother Nature, as there’s a decent chance for rain in the forecast and winds are expecting to be blowing at least 20 mph.
On the flip side of this, I also don’t think the Blazers offense is going to be able to a lot here. UAB is pretty one-dimensional with the run, as they average almost twice as many rush attempts (44) as they do pass attempts (25). That’s going to make it tough sledding here against a talented Middle Tennessee defensive front. Blue Raiders are giving up 25.2 ppg on the season, but only 18.4 ppg in conference play and just 17.4 ppg at home.
UNDER is 9-2 in Middle Tennessee’s 11 home games over the last two seasons and a perfect 6-0 in the 6 games played in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 9-2 in the Blazer’s last 11 road games, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois v. Buffalo -3.5||30-29||Loss||-103||9 h 56 m||Show|
40* MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ATS NO-BRAINER (Buffalo -3.5)
I'll take my chances with the Bulls here, even though the public is pounding them. I just think Buffalo is hands down the more talented team and that’s no disrespect to Northern Illinois. I think the numbers really speak for themselves. They remind me a lot of FAU last year in terms of how the books could just never catchup to them.
Buffalo outscored opponents in conference play by 10.9 ppg and outgained them by 88.1 ypg. Northern Illinois outscored opponents by 5.3 ppg and outgained them by 38 ypg. Some might want to point to that ugly loss for the Bulls down the stretch to Ohio (who lost to Northern Illinois), but note that the Bulls were in a position to lose that game and still win the division in a very favorable matchup with Bowling Green.
The biggest thing for me is I just don’t think Northern Illinois’ offense can keep pace in this one. Buffalo has shown they are capable of annihilating defenses if they aren’t ready. They got a special player in junior quarter back Tyree Jackson and a potent 1-2 punch out of the backfield in Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks, who have combined for 1,607 yards and 23 touchdowns (Jackson also has 7 rushing touchdowns).
It’s going to take a perfect game-plan here for the Huskies just to keep this game competitive. I also think people are sleeping on Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold and his ability to guide his team to victory in big games. The guy went 109-6 in 8 years at Div III power Wisconsin-Whitewater, playing for the national championship in 7 of those 8 years and winning it 6 times.
Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against MAC opponent, while Northern Illinois is a mere 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a neutral site and 0-6 ATS in their 6 games under head coach Rod Carey as a neutral site underdog. Give me the Bulls -3.5!
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/COWBOYS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Cowboys +8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Dallas as an 8-point dog. As difficult as it can be to bet into a streak like the one the Saints are riding with 8 straight covers, you know there’s value going against a streak like that, as the public won’t be able to help themselves. At this point, it doesn’t matter what the number is, they are taking New Orleans.
They were very fortunate to get a cover last week against the Falcons. They just squeaked by the number, winning by 14 as a 13-point favorite and Atlanta really beat themselves. The Falcons had 4 turnovers, two in the red-zone and actually outgained the Saints 366-312.
That’s now 9 forced turnovers in the Saints last 3 games, but now they go up against a Cowboys team that really values the football. Dallas hasn’t turned it over in 3 straight games. A big reason for that is they have got Elliott and the running game going. In their last 3 games the Cowboys are averaging 149.7 rushing yards per game and in this stretch have put up 26.7 ppg and 379 ypg. Quite a big difference from the 21.3 ppg and 334 ypg they average for the season as a whole.
I believe the addition of Cooper is definitely a factor that has helped the running game. Prior to adding him there really wasn’t anyone the defenses had to be worried about in the passing game. I mean the guy has played 4 games and is third on the team with 349 receiving yards and his 3 TD catches are tops on the roster.
I think with Dallas’ ability to run the football and keep the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands, it only increases the likelihood that the Cowboys can keep this within a touchdown. I actually think Dallas has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Chances are the Saints are going to slip up at least one more time and the Cowboys have won 4 of 5 on their home field.
We also see that New Orleans is a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 road games after 3 straight games scoring 25 or more points, while Dallas is 35-19 ATS last 54 home games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Give me the Cowboys +8!
|11-26-18||Titans v. Texans -3.5||17-34||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
40* TITANS/TEXANS MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Texans -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with Houston to win by 4 or more at home against the Titans. I know the Texans keep finding themselves in close games, which might have some thinking to take the points, but I just can't stomach betting an offense like Tennessee on the road in a prime time game against a defense as talented as the Texans.
What this line suggest is that these two would be a pick'em if the game was played on a neutral field. I have Houston rated way ahead of the Titans, as I think the days of consistently winning games with your defense are numbered. Tennessee has two games this year where they failed to reach 85 yards passing. They had just 176 last week at Indy and that's not a top-tier secondary.
Houston comes in 13th against the pass and are 6th against the run. While they scored 20 in the previous meeting between these two teams back in Week 2, they scored on a 66-yard pass on a fake punt and had just 283 total yards for the game (Houston had 437). Titans only averaging 16.3 ppg and 297 ypg on the road.
Houston is averaging 25.7 ppg and 383 ypg at home. I just think they will have the much easier time scoring and there's a much higher chance they win by a touchdown than lose or win by 3 or less. Give me the Texans!
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-119||91 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL -NFC- GAME OF THE YEAR (Panthers -3)
We have a talented Carolina team coming off back-to-back road losses laying a short number at home in a game we know they are going to give max effort.
Not to mention the Panthers have been outstanding at home this season. Perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Seattle comes in at 5-5 and are a respectable 3-3 on the road, but one was a neutral site game against the Raiders and the other two were at Detroit and Arizona, two of the bottom feeders in the NFC.
I just think Seattle is getting a little too much love from those two close losses to the Rams, as well as the fact that they are fresh off that win at home against Green Bay in a prime time matchup. One thing you have to keep in mind with the victory against the Packers is just how big an advantage the home team has in those Thursday games and Green Bay was running on fumes.
The Packers went to LA in Week 8 to face the Rams, then traveled across the country to take on New England in Week 9. They hosted the Dolphins and had to turn right back around and go out west for that game on 3 days rest. I think if Seattle was as good as this line is suggesting, they would have won by a lot more in that spot.
Another thing with Seattle, is this is not an ideal matchup for them. The Seahawks have really transformed their running game this year. They are 1st in the NFL at 154.3 ypg, compared to 27th in passing (219.2 ypg). Carolina has the 8th ranked run defense, giving up just 98.5 ypg and it's even more stingy at home, where they are only giving up 79 ypg.
On the flip side of this, the Panthers are also built on their running game, as they come in 7th in the league at 130.2 ypg. Seattle is 17th against the run, allowing 111.5 ypg and they are giving up a healthy 4.9 yards/carry.
I also want to point out I don't think this Seahawks defense is as good as the numbers say they are. I think they are sugar-coated a bit from a pretty favorable schedule outside of their two games against the Rams.
Panthers are 30-19 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera in home games against fellow NFC opponents. They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivera when coming off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread and 9-1 ATS under Rivera when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. Give me Carolina -3!
|11-25-18||49ers v. Bucs OVER 54||9-27||Loss||-110||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)
I'll take my chances here with these two teams eclipsing the total here. I think the only thing that could keep these two from combining for at least 55 points is mother nature and she's going to be in a good mood Sunday with temps in the mid 70's, no chance of rain and barely any wind.
The OVER is 8-2 in games involving the Bucs this year and it's really not hard to figure out why. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in total offense at 458.5 ypg and are also 1st in passing at 374.6 ypg. They are 3rd in scoring (26.7 ppg), though it's scary to think what they could average without all the turnovers. That offense is backed up big one of the league's worst defenses, which is giving up 32.9 ppg and 395.9 ypg.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive-mind and I'm pretty confident he's going to have Mullens ready to shred this Bucs defense. Not to mention there's no reason not to let Mullens air it out with a 2-8 record. They got their franchise QB in Jimmy G, so no need to tank. Best case would be Mullens shines and you can trade him for draft picks.
If these two defenses simply play to form we are good, as the 49ers are giving up 28.4 ppg and the Bucs allow 32.9. That puts us around 60. I think we easily hit that and there's a chance this thing good push 70. Give me the OVER 54!
|11-25-18||Raiders v. Ravens -10.5||17-34||Win||100||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS MASSACRE (Ravens -10.5)
I know laying big numbers in the NFL isn't a good recipe for success, but the more I look into this game the more I like Baltimore to win here in a blowout. I just don't think it's asking the Ravens that much to win here by two touchdowns.
Oakland maybe it pretty clear that they weren't interested in winning games this year, when they traded Mack right before the season started. That was just the start, as they later traded Amari Cooper to the Cowboys. Sure they won at Arizona last week, but needed a last-second field goal to do so. The two previous games they were outscored 54-9.
This team had to pull Derek Carr a few weeks ago on MNF against the 49ers because the o-line couldn't block. Baltimore's defensive front is every bit as nasty and strong as SF, so I have a really hard time seeing the Raiders putting together too many scoring drives.
On the flip side of this, the Ravens have Lamar Jackson at quarterback, who made his debut last week against the Bengals. Jackson rushed for 119 yards and threw for 150 on 13 of 19 passing. He wasn't just a force on the ground, but Baltimore as a team put up 267 yards rushing, averaging 5 yards/rush.
I got my concerns with Jackson, as you can only run for so long at the QB position. Good defenses are going to make you pay for running it and also not let you out of the pocket. Lucky for Jackson, Oakland is not a good defense and are 31st in the league vs the run, allowing 142.3 ypg. I think Ravens break a bunch of big TD runs and blow this thing wide-open. Give me Baltimore -10.5!
|11-24-18||LSU v. Texas A&M -3||72-74||Loss||-115||29 h 48 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas A&M -3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Aggies laying just a field goal at home against the Tigers. I just think there's a huge home field edge here for Texas A&M and that's only magnified by this being a prime time game under the lights at Kyle Field. Not to mention the line really says it all here with the No. 7 ranked team in the country listed as a dog.
The Aggies only home loss this season came at the hands of Clemson in a crushing 28-26 defeat. I think there's a lot of motivation for this team to finish strong and really build on what's been a positive first year under Jimbo Fisher. I just don't know that this game means as much for LSU, who really has nothing to play for at 9-2.
The even bigger factor here for me is the matchup. LSU is very limited offensively and really need to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field. That's not going to be easy against a Texas A&M defense that ranks 2nd in the nation against the run, giving up just 80.8 yards/game. It's no fluke, as they held Clemson to 115 yards, Alabama to 109, Benny Snell and Kentucky to 70 and Auburn a few weeks back to just 19.
As far as the Aggies offense is concerned, they have faced a bunch of elite defenses and been able to put points on the board. I just don't see LSU being able to keep pace. Give me Texas A&M -3!
|11-24-18||Kentucky -16.5 v. Louisville||Top||56-10||Win||100||28 h 30 m||Show|
50* NCAAF IN-STATE RIVALRY GAME OF THE YEAR (Kentucky -16.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Wildcats in this clash with in-state rival Louisville. I played against Kentucky in that first game after the devastating loss to Georgia and they to no surprise lost the game outright. Just a really horrible spot for a team going from playing for a spot in their conference title game to just having to finish out the season. They slopped it up against last week against Middle Tennessee, but I think we are going to see Kentucky revert back to that early season form against the Cardinals.
If you check the quotes of these Kentucky players, they haven't forgot about that ugly 44-17 defeat Louisville put on them last year. Star running back Benn Snell was quoted saying "I've still got a bad taste in my mouth from last year"
I just don't know what makes anyone think Louisville is going to magically figure this out. You typically see teams play well and with a lot of fight in the first game after their head coach was fired. Louisville went out and lost at home to a pretty average NC State by 42 points. With how atrocious the Cardinals are defensively and how dominant Kentucky is on the defensive side of the ball, the Wildcats should have zero problem turning this into a blowout and covering the spread. Give me Kentucky -16.5!
|11-24-18||NC State v. North Carolina +7.5||34-28||Win||100||21 h 30 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD UNDERDOG SHOCKER (UNC +7.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Tar Heels as 7.5-point home dog against the Wolfpack. I just think this number is a reflection of NC State coming into this game at 7-3 and UNC being at 2-8. I just don't think there's that big a gap between these two teams right now, as this line suggest NC State would be more than a double-digit favorite on a neutral site.
This was just a tough year for the Tar Heels, who had all those suspensions early on and a bunch of really tough losses. I just think that while they are a 2-win team on paper, they are closer to a 6-win team in terms of talent and honesty I think this should be closer to a pick'em. NC State has been overvalued since their 5-0 start and we saw some of that in a 4-point loss at home to WaKe Forest as a 18.5-point favorite.
You also have to factor in the motivation here for UNC. They have lost the last two in the series and there's some rumblings that a loss here might cost head coach Larry Fedora his job. Add in this being senior night and this team needing some kind of motivation going into next year and I really like the home dog win this one outright. Give me the Tar Heels +7.5!
|11-23-18||Central Florida v. South Florida +14.5||38-10||Loss||-110||7 h 8 m||Show|
40* NCAAF UNDERDOG ATS MASSACRE (S Florida +14.5)
I'll take my chances here with USF getting more than two touchdowns at home. As hard as it is to bet against the Knights, I just think this is way too many points for them to be laying on the road.
I know USF is coming into this game not exactly playing well, but there are some positives mixed in their 4-game losing streak. They only trailed Houston by 7-points going into the 4th quarter of what turned out to be 21-point loss. They were only outgained by 2-yards in a shocking 41-15 loss at home to Tulane and had 2nd half leads in their last two defeats to Cincinnati and Temple. While the schedule was easy, you don’t go 7-0 without some decent talent and one of those wins was against a Georgia Tech team that is sitting at 7-4 (5-3 ACC).
No question this one was going to mean something a little more after losing that big game to UCF last year, but there’s that much more incentive for USF to lay it all on the line with the Knights perfect record on the line. No better revenge for the Bulls than snapping Central Florida’s 23-game winning streak.
I also think it’s pretty clear that the only way you are competing with the Knights is if you put points on the scoreboard. I think USF is definitely capable of doing that. They come in averaging 31.2 ppg and 458 ypg. I also think it’s worth looking back to an earlier road game for UCF at Memphis, where they were only a 4.5-point favorite. Not only did the Tigers cover as a mere 4.5-point dog, they should have won the game (led 30-14).
The fact USF is a 14.5-point home dog, says the Tigers would be a 10-point favorite over the Bulls on a neutral field. No way is that legit. I think it’s a clear indication of how inflated this line is. The most important thing to remember is you aren’t betting who will win, all we need is for South Florida to keep this within two touchdowns. Give me the Bulls +14.5!
|11-23-18||East Carolina +19.5 v. Cincinnati||6-56||Loss||-110||46 h 45 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (E Carolina +19.5)I'll take my chances with East Carolina covering the big spread against Cincinnati. I think the public perception here will be that Bearcats will be motivated to play their final home games and celebrate senior day, while the Pirates are a team just going through the motions with no shot at reaching bowl eligibility.That very well could be true, but I think it’s the exact opposite. I think East Carolina is going to come out and play hard against a top team in the conference. As for Cincinnati, I don’t think they want anything to do with this game. That wasn’t just another game for the Bearcats last week against UCF. They went into that game with the belief they were going to pull off the upset and not only snap the Knights perfect record, but overtake them for the top spot in the AAC East. For them to lose the way they did, getting completely man-handled in a 38-13 loss, that’s as demoralizing as it gets.There’s really no incentive for Cincinnati in this game. It would be hard to bounce in this spot against any opponent, but I think it’s that much harder against a bad team like ECU.Adding to this, I think when a team is in a spot like this, where they aren’t motivated to play, it really shows up on the defensive side of the ball, as so much of defense is effort and energy. Defense is what has led to this great season for Cincinnati and I think they not only are in danger of not covering this big spread, but I could definitely see them losing outright.For those that haven’t been keeping up with Pirates football, East Carolina has one of the best true freshman quarterbacks that no one knows about in Holton Ahlers. He really didn’t get serious snaps until their 6th game against Houston. Up to that point he had been used basically as a wildcat option. He’s shown he can do more than just run. In a stretch of 3 games, he threw for 406 yards against UCF, 449 yards against Memphis and 360 against Tulane. He’s got an 11-2 TD-INT ratio and has rushed for 571 (5.2 yards/carry) and 6 scores. I think he can make enough plays to at least keep ECU within the number. Give me the Pirates +19.5!
|11-23-18||Virginia -4.5 v. Virginia Tech||Top||31-34||Loss||-107||6 h 15 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Virginia -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with Virginia putting an end to the losing streak against their in-state rivals and covering this small number on the road. The Cavaliers haven't beat the Hokies since they won 35-21 at home way back in 2003. Virginia Tech has won 14 straight, but this is not your typical Hokies team.
This season took a turn for the worse when starting quarterback Josh Jackson went down, then things really got ugly when the injuries started to pile up on a young and inexperienced defense. It's that Hokies defense that makes me extremely confident the Cavaliers can go into Blacksburg and get the win.
Virginia Tech is giving up 40.3 ppg and 463 ypg (7.4 yards/play) over their last 3 games. They just gave up 38 points to a Miami team that was having all kinds of problems scoring. Virginia has scored at least 27 in 4 of their last 5 and I think they have no problem eclipsing 30 here (Hokies allowing 36 ppg at home).
While the Cavaliers are piling on the points, I look for the Virginia Tech offense to have a hard time keeping pace against a very talented Virginia defense that is holding their opponents a touchdown below their scoring average on the season. Give me the Cavaliers -4.5!
|11-22-18||Mississippi State -12.5 v. Ole Miss||35-3||Win||100||21 h 6 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EGG BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (Miss St -12.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs covering the big number against the Rebels on Thanksgiving. I'm sure a lot of people will be quick to point out the fact that the last two years the outright winner has been a double-digit dog. However, I think that trends comes to an end, as I see this getting out of hand. Mississippi State will be out for revenge and any thoughts of this team throwing in the towel after that loss at Alabama, were thrown out the window in last week's 52-6 win against Arkansas. For me, I just think this Bulldogs defense is one of the best in the country and will be able to shutdown this Ole Miss offense. On the flip side of this, I think the Mississippi State offense is starting to come alive and should be able to move the ball at will against this awful Rebels defense. Give me the Bulldogs -12.5!
|11-22-18||Bears -2.5 v. Lions||Top||23-16||Win||100||14 h 10 m||Show|
50* LIONS/BEARS NFL THANKSGIVING TOP PLAY (Bears -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago to win by at least a field goal. I'm well aware that Trubisky isn't likely to play, but that's why the Bears went out and signed a guy like Chase Daniel, who was with Nagy in KC and will be very comfortable in this offense. Might I add an offense that I think has been very underrated this year, as everyone wants to talk about the defense. Speaking of the defense, I think that's where Chicago will win this game. Detroit's offense hasn't been the same since they traded away Golden Tate and now they will have to adjust to life without Kerryon Johnson, who is out with a knee injury. Johnson has been a huge part of this offense and finally gave Detroit some balance with the running game. He had 89 total yards and two scores in the Lions 12-point loss to the Bears two weeks ago. Lions also might be without wide out Marvin Jones, who is questionable after not playing last week. Too much pressure on Stafford against that defense for Chicago. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|11-19-18||Chiefs +3 v. Rams||51-54||Push||0||9 h 32 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/RAMS MNF ATS MASSACRE (Chiefs +3)
I think the biggest misconception here is that the Chiefs are the only team with a bad defense, when you could argue that the Rams are every bit as bad. Los Angeles went out an added all these big names to their defense and then proceeded to hold the Raiders to 13 points in Week 1 and shutout the Cardinals in Week 2. The public saw those two results as confirmation to their belief that the Rams were this great defensive team. Turns out it was more of just Oakland and Arizona being bad offensive teams.
They have not performed well when matched up against good offensive teams and while they have played some good offenses to this point, they haven’t seen anything like what this Chiefs offense brings to the table. The closest thing would be the Saints and New Orleans put up 45 on them and won by 10. Not to mention the Chiefs are expected to get back wide out Sammy Watkins.
While KC is adding a piece back to their offense, the Rams are going to have to learn to adjust to life without wide out Cooper Kupp, who was lost for the season in last week’s win over Seattle. While Kupp is third in receptions behind Cooks and Woods, he leads the team with 6 touchdowns and behind only Gurley in yards after the catch.
I just don’t think people understand how valuable he is to that offense. He’s like your Wes Welker of old Patriots’ offenses. He’s one guy you really had to account for and now that’s one more guy on defense focusing on stopping Todd Gurley.
I know the numbers aren’t great for the Chiefs defense, but they have been playing better as the season progresses. They have been getting a lot more production out of their young guys and have one of the best pass rushes in the game. Dee Ford is putting up ridiculous numbers and Justin Houston returned last week and made a big impact. Not to mention defensive end Chris Jones has a sack in 6 straight games. If they can put together a game-plan to simply slow Gurley down, they might just turn this thing into a blowout. Give me the Chiefs +3!
|11-18-18||Eagles +9 v. Saints||7-48||Loss||-120||29 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Eagles +9)
I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction on both sides. I think a lot of those people that backing the Eagles and believed they would turn this thing around, gave up after the ugly home loss to Dallas. On the flip side, the perception on the Saints couldn’t be higher. In game where they were suppose to struggle, they won by 37 on the road. Not to mention the fact that they have covered 7 straight. Those that have been riding New Orleans and there’s a lot of them, won’t be jumping off the bandwagon.
I think it forced the books to set a very favorable line for the Eagles. I’m not saying Philadelphia will win this game, but it’s hard to not like them to at least make it competitive and keep it within a touchdown. Keep in mind we are talking about an Eagles team that hasn’t lost by more than a touchdown all season. A lot of people ignore how close this team is to being right there with the other top teams in the NFC.
Another crazy thing with this team is this marks the first time this season that they will be an underdog at kickoff. If you remember back to last year, it was the underdog role that brought this team together, as everyone wrote them off after the Wentz injury. I mean this is it for the Eagles. They lose this game and fall to 4-6, they would basically have to win out to have a shot and they know it. I know everyone to this point has been jacked up to face defending champs, but at some point the Saints are going to lay an egg and this might just be that spot.
New Orleans head coach Sean Payton has guided his team to a mere 15-25 ATS record when playing teams with a losing record in the second half of the season. Saints are also just 4-12 ATS under Payton when playing at home after a game where they posted a +2 turnover margin or better. Eagles are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 vs strong passing teams (avg. 235+ ypg) and 14-3 ATS in their last 17 in the second half of the season vs teams scoring 29 or more points/game. Give me Philadelphia +9!
|11-18-18||Titans v. Colts -1||10-38||Win||100||26 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -1)
I'll take my chances with the Colts at basically a pick'em. I just think there’s a lot of value here with Indianapolis laying a less than a field goal on their home field. I think a lot of that comes from the Titans getting some love after their 24-point win against the Patriots.
I’ll admit, I didn’t see the Titans beating New England last week, but they definitely caught a big break with Gronk not suiting up and I’m also not so sure the Patriots weren’t looking ahead to their bye week with all the guys they had banged up and off that big home win over Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
While that was just another game for New England, that was one the Titans desperately wanted to win for their new head coach, as Mike Vrabel made a name for himself as a player under Bill Belichick. Not to mention he won 3 Super Bowls as a teammate of Tom Brady.
I think we saw a similar type of effort from the Lions earlier this season with them playing for Matt Patricia. Detroit had an equally impressive win, beating the Patriots 26-10 at home. They are currently 3-6 and out of the playoff race.
I just don’t think this Titans team is as good as their 5-4 record and are in a prime letdown spot against a Colts team that I think is flying under the radar. Andrew Luck has proved all of his doubters wrong after returning from the injury that cost him all of last season. He’s simply on fire right now. The guy has thrown 3 touchdown passes in 6 six straight games. He’s completing a career-best 66.3% of his attempts and on pace to post his best QBR and overall quarterback rating of his career.
There’s also something else with Luck. He’s never lost to the Titans in his career. He’s a perfect 9-0 SU with a 7-1-1 ATS record. That includes a perfect 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS record at home, where the Colts have won by an average of 13.0 ppg.
Going back to Tennessee being in a big letdown spot. Going back to 1983 there have been 42 times where there has been a road underdog off an upset win by 14 or more points who are basically .500 team (Win percent between 45%-55%). Only 10 of them have covered and the home favorite has won by an average of 11 points/game. Give me the Colts -1!
|11-18-18||Texans -3 v. Redskins||Top||23-21||Loss||-100||26 h 40 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (Texans -3)
I just don’t think the Redskins are anywhere close to as good as their 6-3 record would lead you to believe. On the flip side of this, I think Houston is flying way under the radar, which isn’t easy to do for a team that’s won 6 straight.
Washington had no business winning last week at Tampa Bay. The Bucs had a 501-286 edge in total yards and 29-15 advantage in first downs. That’s now two straight weeks the defense has been torched, while the offense has struggled. They gave up 38 points and 491 yards to the Falcons at home. This defense also got torched by the Saints for 43 earlier this season.
I get that the Texans aren’t an offensive juggxrnaught, but they did recently put up 42 on the Dolphins and look for new wide out Demaryius Thomas to have a much bigger role now that he’s had two full weeks to learn the playbook.
It’s not so much that I think Houston is going to go into Washington and put up 35+ points. I hope they do. However, it’s more about the matchup between Washington’s offense against the Texans defense.
The Redskins have been decimated with injuries on the offensive line and there needs to be major cause for concern when you score a mere 30 combined points against two of the worst defenses in the league in the Falcons and Bucs. Going into Week 11, Atlanta is giving up 28.2 ppg and Tampa Bay is allowing 32.3. Keep in mind they only had 286 yards against the Bucs.
With that make-shift offensive line they can’t really throw a lot and desperately need to be able to have success running the football to have any shot at moving the ball down the field. Houston has a guy named J.J. Watt, who is without question one of the best defensive linemen to every play the game and leading a Texans defense that ranks 6th against the run (92.9 ypg). It’s not going to be a fun day for Alex Smith and I just don’t see Washington being able to score enough to keep this game competitive. Give me the Texans -3!
|11-17-18||Syracuse +10.5 v. Notre Dame||Top||3-36||Loss||-110||20 h 44 m||Show|
50* NCAAF NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH (Syracuse +10.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Orange as a double-digit dog against the Fighting Irish. I really like what Dino Babers has done at Syracuse and I just don't think the experts give this team enough respect. They want to discredit them for their lack of quality wins. Their best win is probably a home victory against NC State. With that said, they had Clemson on the ropes and that was with Lawrence under center. They only lost by 4-points on the road. Their other loss is a mere 7-point loss at Pitt the very next week after that heartbreaking loss to the Tigers. While these are two ranked teams, all the pressure is on Notre Dame, who needs just a win here and a win at USC to lock up a spot in the playoffs. Syracuse has nothing to lose and everything to gain, as this would be another huge win for this program. I just think they got the talent to slow that Notre Dame offense down, which hasn't exactly had continuity at the quarterback position of late. I'm willing to be the offense does enough to keep this within single-digits and maybe even win outright. Give me Syracuse +10.5!
|11-17-18||Utah v. Colorado +7.5||30-7||Loss||-124||19 h 40 m||Show|
40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ERROR (Colorado +7.5)
|11-17-18||Northwestern v. Minnesota -2.5||24-14||Loss||-105||17 h 21 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Minnesota -2.5)
|11-17-18||Michigan State v. Nebraska +100||Top||6-9||Win||100||17 h 21 m||Show|
50* NCAAF BIG TEN GAME OF THE MONTH (Nebraska +100)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Nebraska at a pick'em on their home field against Michigan State. I just think this one will mean a lot more to the Cornhuskers. Last week's huge showdown with Ohio State was the climax of Michigan State's season. They desperately wanted to defend their home field and ruin any hope the Buckeyes had of making the 4-team playoff. I just think it's hard to go from a game of that magnitude to playing on the road against a team that is 3-7 and no real incentive to win. I get Nebraska doesn't have a shot at a bowl, but because they started out so poorly, I think they are extremely motivated to finish this first year under Scott Frost off with a bang. You wouldn't know by how optimistic the fan base is that this team was 3-7. Expect a rowdy crowd and a win for Nebraska on Saturday. Give me the Cornhuskers +100!
|11-17-18||TCU v. Baylor +1||16-9||Loss||-105||17 h 19 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE WEEK (Baylor +1)
I'll take my chances here with Baylor at basically a pick'em at home against TCU. I think the only thing keeping the Bears from being a bigger favorite, is the fact that TCU comes in at 4-6 and would need to win their final two games to make a bowl. This team has won 11 or more 3 of the last 4 years, fighting for a meaningless bowl game isn't that important to them. Not to mention, they have shown absolutely nothing on the field to make you believe they are going to turn things around. Baylor is in just year two under Matt Rhule and won just one game all of last year. Getting back to a bowl would mean a lot for this program and I expect this team to lay it all on the line. That should be more than enough for them to secure a win on their home field. Give me Baylor +1!
|11-15-18||Florida Atlantic v. North Texas -4||38-41||Loss||-108||11 h 41 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (North Texas -4)
While the Owls do still need 1-more win to get bowl eligible, they got a home game against Charlotte on deck to secure it. I’m not saying they aren’t going to show for this game, I just don’t think they will be as motivated for this contest as North Texas.
This is a bit of a revenge game for the Mean Green, as FAU defeated them in last year’s C-USA Championship Game. In fact, the Owls handed North Texas their only two losses in conference play all of last year. Florida Atlantic outscored the Mean Green 110-48 in those two games.
I would be shocked if a team that returned 52 lettermen and 17 starters didn’t have this game circled as soon as the schedule was released. It might also have a little bit to do with their 2nd half collapse last week against Old Dominion. Not to mention the extra hype that comes with a weekday game and this being senior night (last home game). I expect them to give everything thing they got left in the tank for this one and I just don’t see the Owls matching that intensity.
Not to mention I think North Texas is the better team here. The Mean Green could very easily be sitting at 10-0 right now. They are outscoring teams 40.4 to 18.4 at home this season and FAU is getting outscored 26.0 to 37.8 on the road.
I think we are getting value not only from what happened last year in this series, but the Owls having covered 2 straight and North Texas having only covered 1 of their last 6. Give me the Mean Green -4!
|11-15-18||Packers v. Seahawks OVER 48||Top||24-27||Win||100||10 h 23 m||Show|
50* NFL -GB/SEA- VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (OVER 48)
I'll gladly take my chances with the OVER at 48. I’ve said it time and time before, the books just don’t adjust the number enough on the total for these Thursday games. Playing good defense is all about effort and energy, where offense is more about execution. Three days just isn’t enough for these defensive guys to recover and play at their full potential.
We saw this first hand last week with the Panthers/Steelers matchup, which saw Pittsburgh eclipse the total on their own as the two combined for 73 points. There have only been two times this season where they OVER hasn’t hit on a Thursday game with teams playing on short rest. That was Week 3 with the Browns/Jets (only missed the over by a point and would have hit had Mayfield started instead of coming in for Tyrod Taylor). The other was a couple weeks ago with the 49ers/Raiders, where Oakland is in full-on tank mode.
This week we got two of the best quarterbacks in the game in Aaron Rodgers for Green Bay and Russell Wilson for the Seahawks. I expect both teams to have a lot of success moving the football.
The Packers are at the bigger disadvantage here, as they not only have to play on short-rest but they have to travel quite a ways for this one and it’s been quite a run of travel for Green Bay of late. They traveled to the west coast to play the Rams in Week 8, then went across the country to the east coast to play New England. They returned home for a game against Miami and are now headed back west.
For Seattle, I think it’s going to no only be tough for them to recover physically, but that was a very emotional game against a division rival where they were playing with revenge. Tough turnaround here for them to get up defensively after trying to contain that Rams offense.
While this is more about rest than anything for me, it’s worth noting the OVER is a solid 35-19 in the Packers last 54 as a road dog (avg. score in these games is 51.3) and 13-4 in the Seahawks last 17 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Give me the OVER 48!
|11-13-18||Western Michigan v. Ball State +7.5||41-42||Win||100||6 h 27 m||Show|
40* NCAAF TUES NIGHT MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (Ball State +7.5)
I just think the value is with the Cardinals at this price. Both teams will be without their starting quarterback. Western Michigan’s Jon Wassink is out indefinitely with an ankle injury and Ball State’s Riley Neal is out with a knee injury. I just think Wassink’s injury really levels the playing field in this one.
Prior to getting hurt, Wassink had basically completed 62% of his attempts for 2,000 yards with a 16-6 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 162 yards and was second on the team with 6 rushing touchdowns. Backup Kaleb Eleby filled in nicely for Wassink against Toledo, but was just 10 of 19 for 152 yards with 2 picks last week vs Ohio.
I know there’s still hope of winning the MAC East, but I just think the life was kind sucked out of this team when Wassink went down. I’m banking on the Cardinals to show up for this one. I think backup Drew Plitt surprised people with how well he played in place of Neal against Toledo, throwing for 340 yards. While they lost the game by 32-points, they were within 100 total yards of the Rockets. This is also senior night for Ball State, so the effort should be there
I just think this one should be closer to a pick’em given the circumstances, which is why I would have to grab the touchdown and the hook with the home side. Give me the Cardinals +7.5!
|11-12-18||Giants v. 49ers -3||Top||27-23||Loss||-115||34 h 35 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (49ers -3)
I'll gladly take my chances with San Francisco laying just a field goal. I usually like teams coming off a bye, but the 49ers also have had extra time to prepare having played on Thursday Night Football last week.
The other thing for me is I just trust San Francisco a lot more to show up for this game. I get this is prime time and everyone wants to shine on Monday Night Football, but I think the Giants are a complete mess right now and a lot of it has to do with the play of Eli Manning. If he hadn’t won this franchise two Super Bowls, I don’t think there’s anyway he’s still there starting quarterback.
He’s old, slow and just not that great anymore. I think a lot of the New York players are very frustrated with him at quarterback. Eli’s lack of mobility and an offensive line that isn’t playing well are definitely major factors to why this offense is struggling. Last time out Manning was sacked 7 times by the Redskins. The week before the Falcons had 4 sacks.
Last week the Raiders had to pull Derek Carr because they couldn’t keep the 49ers out of their backfield. San Francisco had 8 sacks on the game and are T-7th with 24 on the season. I get the 8 sacks were a direct result of Oakland’s lack of effort, but this definitely seems like a Giants team that’s in a very similar start to the Raiders.
The other big thing here for me is just how impressive Nick Mullens was in his NFL debut. He completed 16 of 22 for 262 yards and 3 scores. I know he’s likely not going to play that well against an NFL defense that is actually trying, but he passed the eye test for me and I’m willing to gamble it wasn’t all luck and that he’ll have another big game at home and keep this Cinderella story going. Give me the 49ers -3!
|11-11-18||Cowboys v. Eagles -7||27-20||Loss||-120||27 h 5 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/EAGLES SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Eagles -7)
I'll take my chances here with Philadelphia at home. I can see some who might argue that there’s value with Dallas as a 7-point division dog, but I just want nothing to do with the Cowboys in this spot.
I get the argument here that this is a must-win game for Dallas and that effort will help them keep this close. I’m sure the Cowboys will play hard in this game. However, you have to believe they had that same thought process going into their game against the Titans last week.
I think losing to Tennessee the way they did didn’t sit well at all with this team and now they are on a short week of rest against an Eagles team that is going to be fresh and ready for a big 2nd half run.
I also hate this matchup for Dallas. While Amari Cooper had 5 catches and scored the Cowboys’ first touchdown, he only finished the game with 58 yards. I thought the play calling was very poor and it’s looking more and more like Prescott’s huge rookie year might have been a bit of a fluke.
Even with Cooper, this Dallas offense needs to be able to run the football effectively to stay on the field and finish drives with touchdowns. The Eagles aren’t exactly a defense you want to attack via the running game. Philadelphia comes in ranked 2nd in the league, giving up just 83.8 ypg on the ground. Add in how much this game means to the Eagles and it being a prime time home game, I expect that defense to be flying around the field.
I know the Cowboys have a strong defense, but we saw the Titans have a lot of success attacking all that pressure Dallas likes to bring with the short passes out of the backfield. I expect Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense to make sure to use that and I also think Wentz is talented enough to move the ball against any defense , especially at home.
I don’t necessarily think Philadelphia is going to runaway with this game, as it’s not easy blowing out division rivals, but I could definitely see something like a 27-14 game. Give me the Eagles -7!
|11-11-18||Jaguars +3 v. Colts||Top||26-29||Push||0||92 h 4 m||Show|
50* AFC SOUTH GAME OF THE MONTH (Jags +3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Jacksonville as a dog. I think this is the ideal spot to jump on the Jaguars, who I think are going to come out of their bye and remind everyone just how talented this team is. All you see right now in the media is how big of a disappointment this team has been and the NFL just pulled a prime-time home game away from them (were suppose to host Steelers on Sunday Night Football in Week 11, but now it’s an early kickoff).
There’s just some teams that I think play better in the role of the underdog and I fully expect this team to come out with a chip on their shoulder. I get the frustration some might have with starting quarterback Blake Bortles, but no one needed the bye more than him to reset and get back on track. I think he can do just that against a Colts defense that while improved is not all that great.
Indianapolis comes in ranked a mere 19th against the run (109.9 ypg) and 23rd against the pass (275.6 ypg). They same Raiders offense that managed just 3 points and 242 total yards against the 49ers on Thursday Night Football in Week 9, had 28 points by the end of the 3rd quarter just a few days prior against this Colts defense.
The biggest positive here for Bortles getting back on track is the return of running back Leonard Fournette, whose absence has certainly played a big role in the Jaguars struggles. He’s only played in two games (both wins) and last played in a 31-12 win against the Jets in Week 4. He practiced fully today, so should be good to go for this one.
I’m a big Andrew Luck fan and he’s never going to go down without a fight, but I just think he’s in for a long day against this Jaguars defense. When they are clicking this Jacksonville defense is as good as it gets in the NFL. As bad as things have been going, they still rank 2nd in the NFL, giving up just 313.3 ypg. They also own the league’s No. 1 ranked pass defense, allowing a mere 206.8 ypg. The Colts are running the ball better this year, but it’s no secret they need the passing game to be working for them to move the football.
I know Indy has the same record as the Jaguars, but their 3 wins are against the Redskins, Bills and Raiders. I guess the win over Washington looks okay because they lead a bad division, but at least with Jacksonville’s win over the Patriots and last year’s success we know how good this team can be when they get it going.
If that team shows up this thing will turn into a blowout, but with that said, I still think they win and cover without playing their best. That’s how big a gap I think there is between these two teams. Give me Jaguars +3.
|11-11-18||Falcons v. Browns +6.5||16-28||Win||100||20 h 47 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Browns +6.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland as a near touchdown dog at home to Atlanta. I just think we are getting a really good price here on the Browns against a Falcons team that I feel is getting a little too much love after winning their last three games.
I know the Browns failed to cover at home as a big dog against the Chiefs in the first game under interim head coach Greg Williams, but that was just bad luck that they had to play Kansas City in that spot. The Chiefs are one of the best teams in the NFL and are doing things offensively that we haven’t seen.
I liked the decision to fire Jackson and I was impressed with how well the offense played in the first game under new OC Freddie Kitchens. Unlike Haley before him, he made a point to get Duke Johnson the ball and he finished with 9 catches for 78 yards and two touchdowns out of the backfield. Mayfield also played well, throwing for 292 yards and 2 scores, while completing 69% of his attempts (best since taking over as a starter).
I know the Falcons defense is coming off back-to-back games where they didn’t allow allow a lot of points, but it came against two bad offensive teams in the Giants and Redskins. Atlanta is still without two of their best defensive players in Keanu Neal and Deion Jones. They might also be without corner Robert Alford, who is questionable. I think this is still one of the worst units in the league and will struggle to contain Cleveland on the road.
More than anything, I really like this spot for the Browns. Sitting at 2-6-1, they aren’t out of it in the AFC, but need to win this one at home to keep those slim hopes alive. I expect a big time effort here and while they might not win the game, all we need is for them to keep it within a touchdown. Give me the Browns +6.5!
|11-10-18||Kentucky v. Tennessee +6||7-24||Win||100||22 h 2 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Tennessee +6 )I’ll take my chances here with the Volunteers as a short home dog against No. 11 Kentucky. The Wildcats went from playing a game against Georgia, where a win would have made them SEC East champs and kept alive hope that they could maybe beat Alabama in the SEC title game and get into the playoffs. to having nothing but pride to play for in the final weeks of the regular-season. Sometimes teams can pick themselves up in a spot like this, but more times than not they don’t play well and end up losing. Luckily the majority of the public doesn’t dig this deep into the psyche of a football team. All they see is a team ranked No. 11 in the country playing a Tennessee team that hasn't done a ton to get you excited.I know this is an in-state rivalry, but not even that is going to get the Wildcats excited, especially given how bad Tennessee has looked and Kentucky having ended their losing streak to the Vols last year. On the flip side of this, I expect the Volunteers to be jacked up for this game. Not only do they want revenge from last year’s loss, but Tennessee needs needs to win two of their final three games to become bowl eligible. I know simply getting to a bowl isn’t going to satisfy the Tennessee fan base, but after going 4-8 last year and this being the first season under new head coach Jeremy Pruitt, it would be a big win for this program. I’m not going to sit here and say the Volunteers are a great team, but I think people overlook how tough their schedule has been. 4 of their 5 losses have come against West Virginia, Florida, Georgia and Alabama. They other was a mere 3-point defeat at South Carolina. Their lone SEC win was an impressive one, as they went into Auburn and beat the Tigers 30-24 as a 15.5-point dog. It’s also worth noting that the Wildcats are a team that has really thrived in the role of the underdog and struggled when they are expected to win. Kentucky is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite. They are also a mere 1-6 ATS in their last 7 off a double-digit home loss and 1-7 ATS in their last 8 vs a team with a losing record. Give me Tennessee +6!
|11-10-18||Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -3||Top||22-52||Win||100||21 h 19 m||Show|
50* NCAAF ACC GAME OF THE MONTH (Pitt -3 )
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Panthers winning at home against the Hokies. Pittsburgh leads the ACC Coastal at 4-1 and with a win here they would move dangerously close to securing a spot in the ACC Championship Game, as the only team without 3 conference losses would be Virginia and they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker.
I just think there's teams that the public struggles to buy into, regardless of what the record or numbers suggest. I believe Pitt is one of those teams, as they might have been the last team people picked to win this division and we have seen them lose badly to the likes of Penn State (51-6) and UCF (45-14).
Teams do improve over the course of a season and since that loss to the Knights, the Panthers only defeat is a 5-point setback at Notre Dame and they had a 14-6 halftime lead against the Irish.
Virginia Tech is also no where close to on the same level as that Penn State team early in the year and UCF. The Hokies have quite the brand name and I think some of that is playing into this low number.
This is not the same Virginia Tech team that started the year as a Coastal contender. They lost starting quarterback Josh Jackson and have had all kinds of injuries on a defense that was extremely young and inexperienced to begin with.
In the Hokies last 4 games they have allowed 167 rushing yards to Notre Dame, 235 to North Carolina, 465 to Georgia Tech and 219 to BC. Pitt has the No. 20 ranked rushing attack in the country at 230.8 ypg. Add in home field and there's no way the Panthers shouldn't be a bigger favorite here. Give me Pittsburgh -3!
|11-10-18||Mississippi State +24.5 v. Alabama||0-24||Win||100||21 h 17 m||Show|
40* NCAAF VEGAS ATS LINE MISTAKE (Miss St +24.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs at this price in this spot. Even the elite teams like Alabama are vulnerable to letdowns. I just think watching how excited Nick Saban and Alabama were with that win over LSU, that was a massive game to them and it should have been. That win locked up the SEC West and put Alabama in a tremendous position to make the CFB Playoff (yet again).
I think the biggest takeaway for me with the LSU game was how the Tigers defense was able to at least slow down the Crimson Tide offense. I think Mississippi State has every bit as good a defense, if not better, than the Tigers. If they can hold Alabama to under 30 points, I'm willing to bet they cover this massive spread and even if the Crimson Tide score 30+, I think the defense is going to give up a few more big plays in this one and the backdoor cover will be wide open if needed. Give me the Bulldogs +24.5
|11-10-18||North Carolina +10.5 v. Duke||35-42||Win||100||18 h 7 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS NO-BRAINER (UNC +10.5)
I'll take my chances here with UNC as 10.5-point dog. I can't believe we are getting 10 points + the hook, as I think this game is a complete toss up. Duke might be the better overall team and the records definitely suggest that, but keep in mind that the Tar Heels had a bunch of players suspended early and that really messed with the chemistry of this team.
I know they come into this game having lost 5 in a row, with each of the last two coming by double-digits. The thing is, if you look back at the last 4 games during this stretch, UNC was in a great position to win every one of those games. I expect them to keep fighting until they break through and end this losing streak and you know they would love nothing more than to celebrate a win on their rivals home field.
Duke just went on the road and beat Miami as a 9-point dog, but that Hurricane's team is in a bad place as they struggle to realize they aren't as good as they thought coming into the season. Regardless of what state the Hurricanes were/are in, that was a big win for the Blue Devils, as they don't celebrate many wins at Miami. Could be really hard for them to shake off that big win and give UNC their full attention with a much bigger game against Clemson on deck. Note that Duke is pretty much out of the ACC Coastal race and already bowl eligible at 6-3. Give me the Tar Heels +10.5!
|11-10-18||Vanderbilt v. Missouri -16||Top||28-33||Loss||-105||18 h 43 m||Show|
50* NCAAF SEC EAST GAME OF THE MONTH (Missouri -16)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Missouri to win by at least 17 at home against the Commodores. The Tigers might have the same 1-4 record as Vandy in SEC play, but there's no doubt Missouri is the better team.
While both teams are getting outgained in SEC play, Missouri is only -55.8, where the Commodores are -149.6 ypg. Note that the Tigers have played Alabama and Vandy has not. If you just look at the 4 common opponents these two teams have played. Missouri has outgained these teams by 18.3 ypc and outscored them by 1.0 ppg. Vandy has been outgained by 185.7 and outscored by 17.0 ppg.
Drew Lock and that Missouri offense have had their way with bad defenses. The only teams to keep them in check are Georgia, Kentucky and Alabama. They have scored at least 35 on every other team and that includes 38 last week at Florida. Vandy has allowed 35+ points in 4 of their last 6 and one of the exceptions is Tennessee State, who had 27.
Missouri's defense is more than good enough to keep the Commodores from scoring enough to keep this within the number, especially at home. Give me the Tigers -16!
|11-09-18||Fresno State -2.5 v. Boise State||Top||17-24||Loss||-115||12 h 35 m||Show|
50* FRESNO ST/BOISE ST MWC GAME OF THE MONTH (Fresno St -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs as a small road favorite against the Broncos. The fact that Boise State only comes into this game with one more loss than Fresno and are a home dog in a prime time game, tells you all you need to know. This Bulldogs team is the real deal and have one of the best defenses in the country that few know about. We saw Boise State managed just 13 points against a good San Diego State team in a 6-point home loss to the Aztecs (Broncos were favored by 13). I just don't see Boise being able to keep pace offensively in this one. Note that Broncos are now without leading tackler in linebacker Riley Whimpey, who tore his ACL in their last game against BYU. Add in revenge from last year's MWC title game and this could get ugly. Give me the Bulldogs -2.5!
|11-08-18||Panthers v. Steelers OVER 51.5||Top||21-52||Win||100||12 h 39 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 51.5)
Those that have been following from the start of the year, know how much I like the OVER in these Thursday night games. There's only been two games this season on Thursday with teams playing on short rest that have went under the total. One of those was last week, where who the hell knows what Gruden and the Raiders are doing. The other was a game that went under by just 1-point. Tonight we got two of the best offenses in the NFL, who both have top tier quarterbacks. I get how good Pittsburgh has been defensively and who the Panthers have on the defensive side of the ball, they just aren't going to be as good on just 3 days of rest, especially this late in the year. Not to mention the unfamiliarity these two teams have with this being a non-conference game and both teams coming off big division wins. Give me the OVER 51.5!
|11-07-18||Toledo v. Northern Illinois -3||15-38||Win||100||9 h 52 m||Show|
40* WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAC ATS KNOCKOUT (N Illinois -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Huskies as a small home favorite. Northern Illinois has won 5 straight and are on a mission to take back control of the MAC. Keep in mind they are 6-3 overall and all 3 losses have come against Power 5 opponents (Iowa, Utah & FSU).
I just think because they aren’t a flashy team that puts up a lot of points, it has them still flying a bit under the radar. Hard for people to trust a Northern Illinois team that is averaging 19.2 ppg to beat a Toledo squad that comes in scoring 41.2 ppg.
The thing is, the Huskies have one of the best defenses in the country and while the overall numbers don’t show it, they are scoring a modest 26.8 ppg in conferences play. Going back to the defense, they rank 32nd in the country, allowing a mere 346.9 ypg and are strong up front. Northern Illinois ranked 13th against the run (103.8 ypg) and are giving up a mere 2.6 yards/carry.
While they are outgaining opponents in conference play by 51.4 yards/game, Toledo is actually getting outgained by 7.2 yards/game.
The Rockets simply don’t have a great defense and are forced to try to outscore teams to beat them. That works against a lot of teams, but chances are they will struggle to pull out wins against a team like Northern Illinois.
I know Toledo comes into this game off a couple of lopsided wins, as they won at Western Michigan 51-24 the week before crushing Ball State 45-13. What you have to keep in mind with those two wins, is Western Michigan lost starting quarterback Jon Wassink was injured early and they got Ball State without Riley Neal, who does it all for that team.
Even going up against inexperienced backups this Toledo defense struggled. Ball State’s Drew Plitt threw for 340 yards and Western Michigan’s Kaleb Eleby threw for 293 yards and 2 scores (next game at home against Ohio was 10 of 19 for 152 yards and 2 picks).
You always want to check the forecast this late in the season, and conditions here aren’t great for scoring, which I feel definitely favors the Huskies. It’s expected to be right around 32 degrees at kickoff with winds blowing at close to 10 mph. Give me Northern Illinois -3!
|11-05-18||Titans v. Cowboys -4.5||28-14||Loss||-114||10 h 44 m||Show|
40* COWBOYS/TITANS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Cowboys -4.5)
I'll take my chances here with Dallas laying less than a touchdown at home. In year’s past the Cowboys have struggled to play well at home, but that’s not been the case in 2018. Dallas is a perfect 3-0 at home, outscoring opponents by 14.0 ppg (28.7 - 14.7). I really like the addition of Amari Cooper and what he can do for this offense. I think getting him during their bye week will give him enough time to get up to speed for this game.
With that said, I would have probably leaned towards Dallas had they not acquired Cooper in a trade. Mainly because I just can’t stomach betting the Titans and that horrible offense on the road. Tennessee has the same record as the Cowboys at 3-4, but they also could be 0-7 right now, as all 3 wins have come by exactly 3-points.
In today’s NFL, where it’s setup for the offenses to excel, the Titans have had two games where they didn’t throw for more than 85 yards. A few weeks back against the Ravens, they ended the game with 106 total yards.
I think people understand that Dallas’ defense has been playing well, but I think some might be surprised with just how good it’s been. The Cowboys come into this game allowing just 17.6 ppg (2nd) and 313.7 ypg (3rd). They have the 9th ranked run defense (96.3 ypg) and 3rd ranked pass defense (234.4 ypg).
Unless the Titans magically morph into a different offense than the one that’s played the first half of the season, it’s going to be a struggle for them to get first downs.
I know Dallas’ offense isn’t all that great, but they at least got potential and a true difference-maker in running back Ezekiel Elliott. Any impact that Cooper has is going to help this offense, as it will keep teams from just loading the box. I just think Dallas will score enough here to win by at least a touchdown. Give me the Cowboys -4.5!
|11-04-18||Rams v. Saints +2.5||Top||35-45||Win||100||31 h 50 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Saints +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints as a home dog to the LA Rams on Sunday. I just think the perception on the Rams is that they are this unbeatable team that, but I'm not buying it. They are a really good team, but there's plenty of teams out there who can knock them off, especially on the road.
New Orleans lost their opener to the Bucs at home and since that shocking defeat that haven't lost again. Not only have they won 6 straight, but they have covered 5 in a row. Rams on the other hand are struggling with these inflated numbers they are having to deal with, as LA has gone just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5.
I think the key thing here is the game being played in New Orleans, as well as the Rams run defense being able to slow down Gurley, who is the guy that makes that offense go. Saints haven't allowed an opposing team to run for more than 93 yards since Week 1 and are giving up 74 ypg and 3.2 yards/carry. On the flip side of this, Brees will be able to pick apart a pretty suspect Rams secondary. Give me New Orleans +2.5!
|11-04-18||Texans +1 v. Broncos||19-17||Win||100||31 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Texans +1)
I just think these two teams are headed in completely different directions. Houston started the season 0-3, but have since won 5 straight and are 3-1-1 ATS during the stretch. While I think some are starting to take notice of the Texans, I still think they are a bit undervalued here.
Denver comes in having covered 3 straight, which I feel is definitely keeping this number where it is. They only lost by 7 as a 8-point dog at Kansas City, destroyed Arizona 45-10 as a 1-point favorite on Thursday Night Football in Week 7 and a few days earlier only lost by 3-points as a 7-point home dog to the Rams.
The Broncos were very fortunate to cover against both KC and LA. They trailed the Chiefs 30-14 in the 4th quarter and the Rams 20-3 in the 2nd half. Both times scoring in the final minutes of regulation to get the cover. As for the win over the Cardinals, that result shouldn’t have surprised anyone with how bad Arizona is.
All these covers are great, but I just think last week’s game against the Chiefs was their last real fight to save this season. That definitely seems like the case after the team just traded away wide out Demaryius Thomas for future draft picks. I know they like Courtland Sutton, but I can’t imagine the move is viewed as a positive one in the locker room.
Just so happens Thomas was traded to the Texans. While he’s questionable to play, I think the players will draw a little extra motivation to make sure they beat his former team and he’s got to have some decent insights on his former team.
I also think the matchup here favors Houston. Both of these teams want to establish the run. The Texans will be up against the Broncos 27th ranked run defense (135.8 ypg) and Denver will be up against a Houston defense that ranks 7th against the run (95.1). We also saw the Broncos offensive line give up 5 sacks to the Chiefs last week, which is a bad sign with J.J. Watt coming to town.
Houston also has an edge here in terms of rest and preparation after playing their last game on Thursday compared to Sunday. Just a really bad spot for the Broncos. Denver might be able to keep this close early with it being at home, but I’m confident the Texans will leave here with a victory. Give me Houston +1!
|11-04-18||Chiefs v. Browns OVER 52||37-21||Win||100||27 h 27 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 52)
I’m sure Gregg Williams is going to have this team excited to play and the Browns are going to come out 100% ready for this game. They still aren’t going to have an answer for Mahomes and this Chiefs offense. I just think there’s something special going on with Mahomes and that offense this year. What is Cleveland going to to do that others haven’t tried?
I know the Browns defense played well early on and everyone was saying how good this unit was going to be. They come into this game ranked 28th against the run (138.9 ypg) and 27th against the pass (289.9 ypg). They are giving up 414.5 ypg (28th). That’s the defense that is going to stop the Chiefs? They have allowed 25 or more in 4 of their last 5, including a game against the Raiders where they allowed 45.
Kansas City is averaging 36.2 ppg and I think they at worst score 30 points here. That means, all we need is around 21 points (likely less) from the Browns to eclipse the total. I know it seems dire for Cleveland’s offense losing their OC and HC the week before a game, but I think this Chiefs defense is just bad enough, especially on the road, to allow Mayfield and that Browns offense to move the football.
Keep in mind the Chiefs are giving up 32.7 ppg and 475 yards/game on the road this season. All four of their road games have seen at least 50 points and three of them have had 66 or more, including a 83-point game against the Patriots in their last away game. Give me the OVER 52
|11-03-18||Stanford v. Washington -10||23-27||Loss||-115||28 h 30 m||Show|
40* NCAAF LATE NIGHT ATS DESTROYER (Washington -10)
I went against Washington a couple weeks ago with Colorado as a double-digit road dog and cashed a winning ticket. Some might think I would be considering taking Stanford as a double-digit dog, especially after just watching the Huskies lose at Cal as a 11-point favorite. Not a chance. I believe this line is telling you who the books think is going to show up on Saturday. The public is going to poor in on the Cardinal at this price. No way they make Stanford a double-digit dog if they think that's the right side. I think the big upset was lurking after Washington lost that shot at a national title with their second loss of the season against Oregon. However, now that they have hit rock bottom, I'm willing to be Chris Peterson will be able to get them to show up at home under the lights. This Stanford defense can be exposed and if Washington's defense brings the intensity, this won't be close. Give me the Huskies -10!
|11-03-18||Oklahoma v. Texas Tech +13.5||Top||51-46||Win||100||28 h 48 m||Show|
50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech +13.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Red Raiders as a near two touchdown dog. I think a lot of people see Oklahoma as this unbeatable team in the Big 12 and capable of covering any spread they come across. I'm not saying they aren't good, but this is a big number for them to be laying against a quality Texas Tech team (better than they have been in years). The Red Raiders are actually tackling people and playing a little defense. With the way this team can score, especially at home, I see no reason to think they can't keep this within 10-points. With this game coming at night, I think it gives Texas Tech a very good shot of winning this game outright. Much like how LSU's Tiger Stadium turns into something different under the lights on Saturday night, the same thing happens in Lubbock with Jones AT&T Stadium. Give me the Red Raiders +13.5!
|11-03-18||Penn State v. Michigan -12||7-42||Win||100||24 h 31 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS MASSACRE (Michigan -12)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Michigan. To a lot of people this line will make no sense. They will think there's no way Penn State should be getting this many points, especially after how they beat them 42-13 last year. To me I see a much-improved Wolverines team that has been itching for two weeks to get their revenge on the Nittany Lions. A Penn State team I think is overrated and ready to be exposed. Michigan had this same mindset in their two previous games against Wisconsin and Michigan State. Both games they won and covered as a lot bigger favorites than a lot of people thought they should be. While Michigan is fresh, the Nittany Lions are banged up after a very physical game against Iowa. I also don't think this Penn State team is playing with the same edge after those back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. While not out of it, it's really a long shot. They would still need Michigan to lose again and the only potential loss left on the schedule for the Wolverines is at Ohio State. The only way that matters is if the Buckeyes lose another game before that, as they are 1-game up on the Nittany Lions. Give me Michigan -12!
|11-03-18||Georgia v. Kentucky +9.5||Top||34-17||Loss||-115||23 h 4 m||Show|
50* NCAAF SEC GAME OF THE MONTH (Kentucky +9.5)
I'll take my chances here with Kentucky as a near double-digit home dog to Georgia. There's something special about this Wildcats team and they have absolutely embraced this underdog role. To rally the way they did last week against Missouri, is going to have this team as excited for a game as they have been in quite some time. The atmosphere under the lights at Kroger Field will be electric and we have already seen the Bulldogs crumble in a hostile environment at LSU. A game they lost by 20 as a 6.5-point favorite. Not to mention, if Kentucky wins this game they will simply need to beat Tennessee to lock up the East Division and a spot in the SEC Championship Game. There only loss all year came at Texas A&M in overtime by 6-points. I just don't think Georgia is like Alabama, where they are unbeatable, yet that's the feeling a lot of people had coming into this year. Give me the Wildcats +9.5 and sprinkle a little on that money line!
|11-03-18||Iowa v. Purdue -2.5||36-38||Loss||-111||23 h 20 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS SLAUGHTER (Purdue -2.5)
I'll take my chances with Purdue laying less than a field goal at home to the Hawkeyes. ’m immediately drawn to unranked teams that are favorites against a team that is ranked in the Top 25. I think the books are tipping their hand to the side you should be taking and if you play them consistently, you are going to wind up on top. With that said, the line isn’t the only reason I’m taking the Boilermakers to win this game. I think Iowa’s loss to Penn State will be much harder for the Hawkeyes to rebound from than Purdue’s loss at Michigan State.Not that Iowa went into that game expecting to win, but more so how they failed to do so. The Hawkeyes had the ball 1st & Goal from the Penn State 3-yard line down just 6-points with roughly 3 minutes to play. Nate Stanley throws a pick on the next play. A win in that game and Iowa would have been in the driver seat in the Big Ten West and still in the playoff hunt. I just think they struggle to bring the type of energy needed to win on the road against Purdue. I’ll be the first to admit that I thought the Boilermakers had no chance of beating Ohio State at home. I didn’t even think they would cover the spread. I learned a lot about this team in that game and my respect for head coach Jeff Brohm is definitely up another notch. Iowa is not only playing the second straight week on the road, but this will be their 4th road game in the last 5 weeks overall. If that wasn’t enough, starting quarterback Nathan Stanley is dealing with a thumb injury. Stanley has been outstanding for this team and why they are 6-2 and ranked No. 16. There’s zero experience behind him and while he’s expected to play, he’s potentially going to go at less than 100% and will be just one wrong hit away from having to leave this game. As for how Purdue will move the ball against this Hawkeyes defense. I think Iowa is much better suited to slow down teams that want to run the football. I think Purdue’s 11th ranked passing attack will be able to do some damage. The Hawkeyes also tend to struggle with speed and I could really see them struggling to contain the Boilermakers electric freshman Rondale Moore. Give me Purdue -2.5!
|11-03-18||West Virginia v. Texas -2||42-41||Loss||-105||23 h 56 m||Show|
40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Texas -2)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Longhorns laying less than a field goal at home against West Virginia. I know the Mountaineers are sitting No. 13 in the country and tied with Oklahoma on top the Big 12 at 4-1. I know they got a great QB/WR duo with Grier and Stills. I just think it has them getting way too much respect. The best team West Virginia has played all year is Iowa State, who I think is the 3rd best team in the Big 12 behind Oklahoma and Texas. The Mountaineers didn't just lose to the Cyclones, they were completely outmatched on both sides of the ball. Iowa State held them to 152 total yards and 14 points (scored non-offensive TD). They also gave up 498 total yards to the Cyclones, who threw for 254 yards and 3 scores and ran for 244 yards and a score. Texas is better than they were last week at Oklahoma State and this team has been a force at home this season. This isn't just another game. The winner of this game not only has a shot at the regular-season title, but it really puts them in the driver seat to at least make the Big 12 title game, which is really what both these teams want. The atmosphere will carry Texas to a win. Give me the Longhorns -2!
|11-03-18||Iowa State -14.5 v. Kansas||27-3||Win||100||20 h 44 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Iowa St -14.5)
I'll take my chances here with Iowa State laying just 14.5-points on the road against Kansas. I really like this Cyclones team and while I think they are getting some love from the experts and media (ranked in CFB playoff Top 25), I don't think the public is 100% on board. For a lot of people, they are going to just look at the Cyclones overall body of work and see they are 4-3 with good wins and some not so great performances. The thing is this team could easily be 6-1 and I'm not so sure they don't beat Oklahoma at home if Brock Purdy was the starter. Purdy is why this team is still showing value. This is a different team with him at quarterback.He took over in the win at Oklahoma State and they haven't lost since destroying West Virginia at home and knocking of TCU. Kansas is better than they have been in a while and they are off a surprising upset win over TCU, which I think is also playing into this line. That Horned Frogs team is in a really bad place right now, so take that win however you want, but I'm not all that impressed. This team lost by 20 to Oklahoma St, 16 to W Virginia and 32 to Texas Tech. The same 3 teams ISU has beat since Purdy took over. I think the Cyclones have to play their worst and Kansas plays their best for this to even sniff being a two-touchdown game. Give me ISU -14.5!
|11-02-18||Colorado +3 v. Arizona||Top||34-42||Loss||-110||13 h 43 m||Show|
50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Colorado +3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Buffaloes going into Tucson and secure a win over the Wildcats. It doesn’t get much worse than losing a game where you have a 28-point lead in the 2nd half. There’s two ways to respond from a loss like that. It either cripples you or it lights a fire under you. I got a good feeling that Mike MacIntyre’s squad will be ready to go on Friday.
There’s a lot of guys in that locker room who remember what Tate did to them last year (set FBS quarterback rushing record, 327 yards). Not to mention they want revenge for loss they got handed on their home field. On top of that, they have to be thinking they might need this game to make a bowl, which is crazy given they were 5-0.
Their next two are at home against Washington St and Utah. Two of the best teams in the conference. They end the year at Cal, who just upset Washington at home. A win here also keeps them alive in the Pac-12 South race, which should be more than enough motivation on it’s own for them to show up.
As for Arizona, I’m just not buying a whole lot into their blowout win against Oregon. I think they caught the Ducks about as flat as you will find a team. Oregon had just lost 34-20 at Washington State to end a streak of 4 straight games against Top 25 teams. Two of which were the marquee 'GameDay' matchup.
They clearly didn’t look like they were ready to play and the numbers kind of suggest that. No disrespect to the Arizona defense, but for the Ducks to only put up 270 yards says it all.
Even after that great performance against Oregon, the Wildcats come into this game ranked 93rd against the run (183.4 ypg) and 81st against the pass (238.2 ypg). I know Tate had a good game, but we have seen this Arizona offense struggle against better defensive teams.
Colorado is a respectable 46th against the run and 63rd vs the pass. This team held Washington to 351 total yards and 27 points on the road. If they simply do that against Arizona, they will be in great shape to win here by double-digits. Give me the Buffaloes +3!
|11-01-18||Raiders v. 49ers OVER 45||Top||3-34||Loss||-110||10 h 54 m||Show|
50* RAIDERS/49ERS VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 45)
I’ve recommended the OVER in every single Thursday Night game since Week 2, which is when the teams first have to play these games on just 3-days rest. All but one of them have finished OVER the total and that one just missed out by a single point. Many of the ones that have hit haven’t even been close. I could definitely see this one between the 49ers and Raiders flying over the total.
What’s the real incentive for either of these teams right now? Oakland is trading away their best players for future draft picks and the 49ers season was over as soon as Garoppolo went down. The best strategy for both teams is certainly to not win games, as they are much better off tanking for a better draft pick. I know that doesn’t happen in the NFL like it does in the NBA, but I think we are starting to see the league trend more that way. We are definitely seeing a lot more action at the trade deadline than we have in the past.
The road team is always at a disadvantage in these games and the Raiders defense couldn’t be playing much worse. Oakland is dead last in the NFL against the run, giving up 144.7 ypg. San Francisco is 21st against the pass (275.5 ypg) and 13th against the run (102.9 ypg), but keep in mind they have played Arizona’s anemic offense twice. They also might be without linebacker Reuben Foster, corner Richard Sherman and safety Jaquiski Tartt. All of which are questionable to play.
The other key here is that these two teams have some decent talent on the offensive side of the ball. I think both teams have a realistic shot here of scoring somewhere between 27-34 points and all we need is for something like 27-20 to cash a winning ticket.
Lastly, there’s a great system in play. The Over is 64-29 (69%) over the last 10 seasons in non-conference games, where one team (49ers) is off a division loss by 7-points or less. Give me the Over 45!
|11-01-18||Temple +11 v. Central Florida||40-52||Loss||-115||9 h 7 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Temple +11)
I'll take my chances here with the Owls as a big double-digit underdog. As impressive as this UCF run has been, the Knights are going to slip up at some point and I think it could be this game. Either way, I think UCF is way overvalued here against a very good Temple team.
The Knights should have already lost, as they pulled off a miraculous 31-30 win at Memphis a few weeks back, where they trailed 30-14 in the 2nd quarter. They were outgained by the Tigers 490 to 461 and had a 27-18 edge in first downs. I just think that game is a good indicator of the type of team that can beat UCF and I definitely feel Temple fits that mold.
The Owls feature a great defense that has been battle tested. Temple is 25th in the country, giving up just 330 yards/game. They are giving just 4.2 yards/play against teams that average 5.5 yards/play. They are holding teams almost 75 yards under their season average and a touchdown under their scoring average. I know McKenzie Milton is expected to play, but he might be limited some with that ankle injury. Knowing that he’s just one wrong hit away from aggravating it, he might be hesitant to run, which is what makes him such a dangerous player.
I also think this UCF defense is one that Temple’s offense can expose. The Knights are giving up 448 yards/game in conference play and that’s a bit concerning given the only real team they have played is Memphis. The other 3 were against UConn, SMU an ECU, who are a combined 2-10 in league play.
The other thing here is we can bank on a max effort here from the Owls, who not only want revenge from last year’s embarrassing loss, but they want to be the one that puts an end to the Knights win streak. I think they pull it off, but I’m confident they keep this within the number. Give me the Owls +11!
|10-30-18||Miami-OH +7 v. Buffalo||42-51||Loss||-105||9 h 4 m||Show|
40* NCAAF TUESDAY NIGHT MAC KNOCKOUT (Miami +7)
I'll take my chances with the RedHawks. I think a lot of people have been on this Buffalo team early on and the Bulls have rewarded them with a 6-1 ATS stretch, including three straight covers. Most will overlook the fact that Miami has covered 5 straight and just assume this 3-5 team won’t be able to keep it within a touchdown on the road against the Bulls.
I just don’t think there’s a whole lot that separates these two teams in terms of actual talent on the field. Buffalo is averaging 31.0 ppg in MAC play, while allowing just 18.7. Miami is averaging 37.2 ppg and giving up just 21.5. I know you can’t read too much into common opponents, but it is worth noting that the RedHawks lost to Army in double-overtime, while Buffalo lost 42-13 at home to the Black Knights. The Bulls also only beat Akron 24-6 at home, while Miami won 41-17 on the road against the Zips.
Both teams have big time playmakers at quarterback. The Redhawks have senior Gus Ragland, who has completed 60.6% of his attempts with a 14-3 TD-INT ration. Buffalo has junior Tyree Jackson, who despite a mere 56.6% completion rate, has a 20-8 TD-INT ratio.
Defensively both teams are really good, but strictly based off numbers, the Bulls hold a slight edge. Miami is 38th in the country (350 ypg) and Buffalo is 26th (331). However, both teams are giving up an identical 4.9 yards/play.
I would have this game listed as a pick’em on a neutral field, which means both teams would be around a 3 to 3.5 point home favorite. Not only is Miami showing great value at this price, but I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Give me the RedHawks +7!
|10-29-18||Patriots -13.5 v. Bills||25-6||Win||100||22 h 40 m||Show|
40* PATRIOTS/BILLS MNF ATS KNOCKOUT (Patriots -13.5)
I'll take my chances here laying the big number with New England on the road. History is going to suggest that you take the big division home dog here, but history hasn’t seen an offense as bad as what Buffalo will put on display for Monday Night Football. The Bills are on pace to finish this season with the worst offensive efficiency we have ever seen.
It’s not easy beating a team in the NFL by two touchdowns on the road, but I just don’t know how you can trust this Bills team to keep this within 13 points. If this were an early Sunday kickoff, I might consider rolling the dice with Buffalo, but no way is Tom Brady and the Patriots not showing up for the bright lights of Monday Night Football. On top of that, New England has consistently been the team that has overcome these key situational trends under Brady and Belichick. They have also won 3 straight in the series by at least 16 points.
I just don’t know how the Bills can keep this one competitive. New England’s offense is clicking right now. The Patriots have scored at least 38 points in 3 straight games. If they hit that mark here, Buffalo would need to score 25 to cover. The Bills have scored 25 or more just once this season. Chances are they will struggle to just score 20, as they have failed to simply reach 14 points in 5 of their 7 games.
With Josh Allen sidelined, Buffalo is likely to go with Derek Anderson again, but I’m not so sure he’s a much better option than Nathan Peterman, which says a lot given how atrocious Peterman has been.
I know the Bills are going to get up for this game and the home fans will be pumped up for prime time, but there’s simply a massive edge in both talent on the field and in coaching that I would have to roll the dice with the Patriots. Give me New England -13.5!
|10-28-18||Colts -3 v. Raiders||42-28||Win||100||28 h 17 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER BOOKIE ATS MASSACRE (Colts -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Colts laying just a field goal at Oakland. I think a lot of people will hesitate to back Indy here as a road favorite, as they are just 2-5 on the season. The key thing here for me, is I don't trust this Raiders team to show up.
Oakland has been in the media for all the wrong reasons of late. There's rumors out there that not everyone is a fan of starting quarterback Derek Carr and management keeps trading away their best players. First it was Khalil Mack, now it's wide out Amari Cooper.
On top of all that, this team wasn't that good to start with and that's evident by their 1-5 record, which includes losses by 15 or more to the Rams, Chargers and Seahawks. As for the Colts, injuries have really kept this team from reaching it's full potential, but I think we saw just how good they can be in last week's 37-5 win over Buffalo.
Andrew Luck is back to being one of the best quarterbacks in the game and they got a lot of good young talent on the defensive side of the ball. I just think Luck is going to be able to have his way with the Raiders defense and Oakland will struggle to keep pace. Give me the Colts -3!
|10-28-18||Bucs v. Bengals -3.5||34-37||Loss||-102||25 h 25 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Bengals -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cincinnati as a small home favorite. I believe this is an ideal get right spot for the Bengals, who have to be chomping at the bit to get back on the field after how bad they played in last week's loss to the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
I was all over Kansas City in that game, as I just thought it was really tough spot for the Bengals coming off that devastating loss at home to the Steelers and having to face one of the best teams in the league in prime time on the road. They aren't going to be the last team to get whooped by Kansas City in Arrowhead this season.
As much as I loved going against Cincinnati in that game, I love the Bengals in this spot. Not only are we going to get a max effort, but we are getting a very favorable price to back them.
The biggest problem for the Bengals in their last two games has been the play of their offense. I don't see that trend continuing against this Tampa Bay defense. The Bucs are giving up a ridiculous 40.7 ppg and 458 yards/game on the road this season.
Their defense ranks dead last against the pass, giving up 327.5 ypg. While they are 6th against the run, they just lost one of their best linebackers, Kwon Alexander to a season-ending ACL injury and both starting defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and defensive end Vinny Curry are listed as questionable. As for the Bucs offense, it's got some nice weapons in the passing game, but they have zero threat of a running game and Jameis Winston continues to take horrible care of the football. Winston has played in just 3 games and has already thrown 6 interceptions. The Bucs as a whole have turned it over 13 times in their last 4 games and forced just two turnovers during that stretch.
Simply put this is not a team you want to back on the road. Tampa Bay is just 3-8-1 ATS in there last 12 road games and are also a mere 3-9-1 in their last 14 off a non-cover. Cincinnati has covered 5 of their last 7 at home, 7-1 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 30 or more points and 14-2 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 400 or more total yards in each of their last two games. Give me the Bengals -3.5!
|10-28-18||Ravens v. Panthers +3||Top||21-36||Win||100||25 h 18 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers +3)
I'll take my chances here with Carolina as a home dog against the Ravens. I just think the price here is too good to pass up on the Panthers, as I think Baltimore has no business being favored on the road.
For whatever reason this Carolina team is getting no love in 2018. The Panthers just rallied from 17 down in the 4th quarter to win at Philadelphia and all anyone wants to talk about is the Eagles giving the game away.
Carolina is 34-11 at home with Cam Newton as their starting quarterback, which includes a perfect 3-0 record at home this year. With Baltimore dealing with all kinds of injuries. I look for Newton and that offense to surprise some people with how well they move the ball.
I also think this is a really tough spot for the Ravens off that crushing loss at home to the Saints, where Justin Tucker missed the extra point late that would have sent the game to OT. That's as gut-wrenching of a loss as you will find and those are the hardest ones to bounce back from, especially on the road. Give me the Panthers +3!
|10-27-18||Texas A&M v. Mississippi State -1||13-28||Win||100||24 h 29 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PRIME TIME ATS MASSACRE (Mississippi St -1)
I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs as a small home favorite against Texas A&M. Texas A&M is a team I think a lot of people are taking notice of right now. They are now No. 16 in the country at 5-2 and their 2 losses are against Clemson and Alabama. Not to mention all the respect Jimbo Fisher gets as a head coach.
This line is absolutely begging the public to take Texas A&M. Mississippi State just lost and failed to cover at LSU (scored just 3 points) and are just 1-3 in their last 4 games. I'm going the other way and taking the Bulldogs to win this one at home.
While Mississippi State comes in struggling, there's no denying the talent that is on this team. They got one of the best defensive lines in the country and a dynamic quarterback who is really tough to stop when he's on his game.
I expecting to see a pissed off and highly motivated Bulldogs team at home in what will be an electric atmosphere at Davis Wade Stadium under the lights on ESPN. The Aggies have won 3 straight, but could have lost all 3. They only won by 7 at home against Arkansas, by 6 at home against Kentucky and by 3 last time out at South Carolina.
I think the fact that their only two losses are against Clemson and Alabama, has people thinking they are a little better than they are. They too might think that and it's just hard to win on the road in the SEC. Give me the Bulldogs -1!
|10-27-18||Kentucky v. Missouri -7||15-14||Loss||-110||21 h 24 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Missouri -7)
I'll take my chances here with Missouri at home in this one. Kentucky is 6-1 and ranked No. 12 in the country and getting 7 against a Missouri team that is 4-3 and 0-3 in the SEC. It makes no sense. Whenever I see a line like this, I'm almost always going to take the favorite, as I just feel the books are telling you what side to bet.
Kentucky's defense is really good, but this Missouri offense is one of the more potent units in the SEC and has a big time quarterback in Drew Lock. Add in playing at home and I think the Tigers will be able to move the ball.
The other key here is the Wildcats offense has zero threat of a passing attack and star running back Benny Snell is banged up. Missouri has the perception of being a bad defensive team, but they really matchup well here. The Tigers are awful against the pass, but are ranked 34th in the country, giving up just 131.6 ypg on the ground.
I just have a hard time seeing the Wildcats keep pace offensively in this one and if the offense struggles to run, it greatly increases the chances of turnovers and Missouri getting the ball with great field position. I think the Tigers get the lead early and coast to a big home win. Give me the Tigers -7!
|10-27-18||South Florida v. Houston -7.5||36-57||Win||100||21 h 55 m||Show|
40* NCAAF SITUATIONAL ATS KNOCKOUT (Houston -7.5)
I'll take my chances here with Houston laying over a touchdown at home against undefeated and No. 21 ranked USF (7-0). Most are going to look at this line and not even hesitate to take the Bulls at 7.5. Anytime I see a line that looks this off, I'm going to take the side that doesn't make sense almost every time.
This line tells me the books don't just expect the Cougars to win this game, but they expect them to blowout South Florida. A closer look and it's easy to see why Houston is the right side. The Bulls are simply 7-0 because of their schedule. Their best win of the season was a home victory over Georgia Tech, where they had two kickoff returns for touchdowns and were outgained by 176 yards (gave up 602 yards).
Their other 6 opponents are Elon, Illinois, E Carolina, UMass, Tulsa and Connecticut. The offense is putting up 35.6 ppg, but it's come against teams that on average give up 36.0 ppg. In comparison, Houston is averaging 48.7 ppg against teams that only give up 34.8 ppg.
Not to mention they are 86th in the country, giving up 410 ypg, which has come against teams that only average 378. The Cougars average 555 and 7.4 yards/play. This team is going to score at will against the Bulls at home and I just don't think USF can keep pace. Give me Houston -7.5!
|10-27-18||Georgia v. Florida +7||Top||36-17||Loss||-119||21 h 53 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Florida +7)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Florida as a touchdown underdog to the Bulldogs. I just think this thing should be closer to a pick'em with it being on a natural field. This Georgia team is still getting mad love from the public for what they did last year.
Most are just tossing up that 36-16 loss at LSU as a bad game for Georgia, like they had last year with Auburn. That might be the case, but I personally just think it's a sign that this team isn't as good as everyone makes them out to be. Their two toughest games before that were at Missouri and at South Carolina, which are decent but not great teams.
Florida isn't another middle of the pack opponent. This Gators team is the real deal. Dan Mullen has worked his magic in year one and has this team playing as well as we have seen in years. They beat the same LSU team that rolled Georgia 27-19.
There's no doubt in my mind Florida is going to feed off the underdog role and I don't think they just cover. I fully expect them to win this game outright. Give me the Gators +7!
|10-27-18||Texas Tech v. Iowa State -5||Top||31-40||Win||100||17 h 30 m||Show|
50* NCAAF BIG 12 GAME OF THE YEAR (Iowa St -5)
I'll gladly take my chances with ISU as a small home favorite against the Red Raiders. I think Iowa State might be one of the most underrated teams in the entire country right now and certainly don’t feel like they are getting near enough respect with this small line.The Cyclones come into this game at 3-3, but could easily be 5-1 and potentially even 6-0. They lost 13-3 at Iowa, who is now 6-1 and ranked No. 18 in the country. They had their chances to win that one, as they trailed just 6-3 in the 4th quarter. They lost 27-37 at home to Oklahoma, who is 6-1 and ranked No. 8. The other loss was a 3-point defeat at TCU without starting quarterback Kyle Kempt and before they turned to Brock Petty.Speaking of Petty, he’s been outstanding in his two starts since replacing Zeb Noland. Petty threw for 318 yards and 4 scores on the road against Oklahoma State in his first career start and 254 yards and 3 scores against West Virginia (could have threw for more if it wasn’t such a blowout). I think Iowa State has found something special in Petty and simply not many people know about this kid.His emergence really makes this a dangerous offense, as the Cyclones have one of the best running backs in the country in David Montgomery, who had a season-high 189 yards in the win over the Mountaineers. The thing is, on paper it looks like an awful offense, as they are just 101st in the country, averaging a mere 360.2 yards/game.I think they are going to have zero problem moving the ball against this Texas Tech defense, which comes in ranked 123rd in the country against the pass, giving up 288.1 ypg.As for the Red Raiders and their high-powered offense, we saw a similarly hyped offense come into Ames in West Virginia and struggle to pick up first downs. Will Grier, one of the best QBs in the country, went just 11 of 15 for 100 yards. The Mountaineers as a team had just 152 yards and 9 first downs. The Cyclones are 20th in the country, giving up just 316.6 ypg and are certainly going to feed off what is always a rowdy home crowd at Jack Trice Stadium.Iowa State is 15-4 ATS over their last 19 games under head coach Matt Campbell and have covered 11 of their last 13 conference games. Give me the Cyclones -5!
|10-26-18||Indiana v. Minnesota +2||31-38||Win||100||8 h 38 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Minnesota +2)
I'll take my chances on the Golden Gophers as a home dog, as I think the wrong team is favored in this one. I just think we are seeing a big overreaction to how these teams played this past Saturday, with Indiana nearly upsetting a ranked team and Minnesota losing badly to a team that hadn’t won a game.
I think a lot of people are overlooking the fact that was a tough spot for the Gophers. Minnesota had just laid it all on the line the previous week in a loss at then No. 3 Ohio State. They were primed for a letdown after that big effort and it’s not like Nebraska was commanding a ton of respect. While the Gophers came out flat, the Cornhuskers were all-in, trying to get that first win of the season. Note that after falling behind 28-0, they pulled within 28-22 before running out of steam in the 2nd half.
I’m willing to bet P.J. Fleck is going to have his troops ready to go for this game and there’s no question he’s going to use the fact that they are getting no respect as a home dog to Indiana as a motivator.
As for the Hoosiers great showing against Penn State, you have to keep in mind that the Nittany Lions were coming off a crushing 21-17 loss at home to Michigan State, which all but ruined any hopes they had of winning the Big Ten East and making the 4-team playoff. I don’t think it will be the last time Penn State struggles against a lessor opponent down the stretch.
This will be the 3rd time Indiana has been a road favorite this season. They failed to cover either of the first two, winning by just 10 as a 13-point favorite at FIU and by a mere 7-points on the road against an awful Rutgers team as a 14.5-point favorite. Not to mention, I think this is a big letdown spot for the Hoosiers after laying it all on the line against the Nittany Lions and having to feel like they gave that game away.
Indiana is a mere 1-7 ATS in their last 8 road game and are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 off a game where they covered the number. Gophers are 11-3-3 ATS in their last 17 off a ATS loss and 5-1 in their last 6 after giving up 40 or more points. Give me Minnesota +2!
|10-26-18||Miami-FL -3.5 v. Boston College||14-27||Loss||-105||7 h 40 m||Show|
40* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Miami -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Hurricanes as a small road favorite against the Eagles. I simply think we are seeing a favorable number here with Miami, due to the fact that they come in off that loss to Virginia.
Boston College comes into this game at 5-2. Their 5 wins have come against UMass, Holy Cross, Wake Forest, Temple and Louisville. The two best wins are the road victory against the Demon Deacons and the home win over the Owls. While they won each of those by at least a touchdown, they yardage battle was basically even against Wake Forest and they were outgained by Temple.
In their two big step up games the Eagles lost 30-13 at Purdue and 28-23 at NC State. At the time the close loss to the Wolfpack looked solid, given NC State was undefeated and ranked in the Top 25. However, that loss looks a bit worse after the Wolfpack got annihilated 41-7 by Clemson this past Saturday.
The other thing to note is how bad Boston College’s defense has been in a lot of these games against better teams. They gave 512 total yards to Wake Forest, 372 to Purdue, 452 to Temple and 533 to NC State.
I know Miami’s offense has been hit or miss, but I like that head coach Mark Richt is going back to veteran quarterback Malik Rosier after turning over the reigns the last 4 games to red-shirt freshman N’Kosi Perry. While Perry provided a bit more in the passing game, he was careless with the football. He’s also not near the runner that Rosier is. Perry has 32 attempts for 51 yards and 0 touchdowns. Rosier has 32 attempts for 107 yards and 6 scores.
Even if the Hurricanes offense doesn’t put up a big number offensively, I still think they can win and cover with their defense. Miami has one of the best stop units in the country. They are giving up just 18.1 ppg (T-17th) and 236 yards/game (10th). Not to mention the defense is back to forcing turnovers, as they have 11 takeaways in their last 3 games, all of which have been against ACC opponents.
So much of what Boston College wants to do offensively is built around their running game and that’s not how you want to attack this athletic and fast Miami defense. We saw them only put up 85 rushing yards in that 30-13 loss to Purdue and I could see a similar type of outcome here with the Eagles offense struggling to get anything going. Note that BC’s star running back A.J. Dillion is questionable to play with a ankle injury and they really need him to play to have any shot at winning this game. Give me the Hurricanes -3.5!
|10-25-18||Dolphins v. Texans OVER 44||23-42||Win||100||9 h 58 m||Show|
40* DOLPHINS/TEXANS TNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 44)
I just think the perception here is that with the way Houston’s offense is struggling and the Dolphins missing several key players on offense, these two will struggle to put points on the board. That may be the case, but time after time we see a higher-scoring game than expected on Thursday Night Football.
Last week, people thought the same thing with the Broncos/Cardinals matchup, which had a total of just 41.5. The game finished with 55 points and the OVER cashed midway thru the 3rd quarter. The OVER is now 5-1 this season with teams playing on short rest on Thursday. I’ve said it time and time before, 3-days isn’t enough for players to recover, especially defensive guys, as so much of how well a defense plays depends on effort and energy.
I know Houston has a really strong defense and Miami will be starting Brock Osweiler with two of it’s top receivers in Albert Wilson and Kenny Stills both sidelined. The thing is, as bad as Owseiler has been in the past, he’s gone 54 of 80 (67.5%) for 654 yards and a 6-2 TD-INT ratio in his three appearances (2 starts). The Texans are well aware of the injuries and very familiar with Osweiler (played 15 games for Houston in 2016). Coming off that huge road win over Jaguars and just 3 days off, it wouldn’t surprise me if they struggle to give this Miami team their full attention.
On the flip side of this, I think we could Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ offense go off for a big number in this one. In Miami’s game last week against the Lions, Detroit scored on 7 of their 9 offensive possessions and one of those was them just kneeling to run out he clock at the end of the game. Not to mention they let the Lions of all teams, rush for 248 yards. Detroit’s highest rushing total in 21 years. The week before that they only forced the Bears to punt twice and Mitch Trubisky went 22 of 31 for 316 yards and 3 scores and Chicago had 164 yards on the ground.
The last 6 times the Dolphins allowed more than 450 total yards (gave up 457 to the Lions), the OVER is a perfect 6-0 in their next game. OVER is also a perfect 7-0 in Miami’s last 7 after giving up 25 or more points in each of their previous two games and 20-8 in the Texans’ last 28 home games after two straight games that finished under the total. Give me the OVER 44!
|10-25-18||Georgia Tech v. Virginia Tech -3||49-28||Loss||-106||8 h 6 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Va Tech -3)
I'll take my chances here with Virginia Tech and lay the short number with the Hokies. I just feel the price is right to take a shot on Virginia Tech at home in a prime time game.
No question the Hokies were fortunate to get that win at North Carolina last time out, but sometimes stealing a game can really light a fire under a team. At the same time, I think that ugly win over the Tar Heels, has created the value we are getting in this matchup.
The big thing to keep in mind with the poor showing against UNC, is it came the week after the Hokies got annihilated by Notre Dame 45-23 at home. Not a big surprise to see them come out flat on the road against a Tar Heels team that had just lost by 37 to Miami in their previous game.
I think another thing that’s keeping the number down is the fact that Georgia Tech won last year’s game as an underdog. The big thing to remember about that contest, is the Yellow Jackets had to win that game to have a realistic shot at making a bowl (needed to win 2 of their final 3 and one was against Georgia). On the flip side, Virginia Tech was off a crushing loss to Miami, which ended any hopes of them defending their Coastal title.
Not only are the Hokies going to want revenge from last year’s loss to the Yellow Jackets, but I’m sure they haven’t forgot about two years ago when Georgia Tech beat them on their home field.
Another key thing to note is that both teams are off a bye. While that might seem like a non-factor with both teams getting extra time to prepare, I think it’s a big edge for the Hokies, getting those extra few days to prepare for that option offense of Georgia Tech, especially with all the young guys they got on the defensive side of the ball.
Keep in mind that Virginia Tech head coach Justin Fuente has gone 8-3 off a bye, which includes a 3-1 mark since he took over in Blacksburg. Fuente’s teams have also been great after a sluggish stretch of play, as he’s 10-2 ATS in his last 12 after his team failed to cover 3 of their last 4. Georgia Tech on the other hand is a mere 3-12 ATS under Paul Johnson when coming off an upset loss as a favorite to a conference opponent. Give me the Hokies -3!
|10-25-18||Baylor +14 v. West Virginia||Top||14-58||Loss||-110||8 h 34 m||Show|
50* NCAAF BIG 12 'ATS' PLAY OF THE MONTH (Baylor +14)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Baylor as a two touchdown dog. I just think the perception here is that the Mountaineers are going to bounce back from that ugly loss to Iowa State. I'm not saying they won't win the game at home, but I think they are still way overpriced due to the fact that they are 5-1 and still ranked No. 13 in the country.
I just don't think West Virginia is the 13th best team in the county and won't be the least bit surprised when they finish the season out of the Top 25. Will Grier is a great quarterback and will likely be playing on Sunday's but the Mountaineers team as a whole is nothing to get excited about. Their best win is a road victory at Texas Tech, where they were fortunate to jump out to a 28-7 lead, as they were outscored 27-14 over the final 3 quarters.
As for Baylor, I think the Bears remain undervalued, despite the fact that they are one of the most improved teams in the country. Baylor went just 1-11 last season with their only win coming against Kansas. They already have 4 wins in 2018 and just gave Texas all they could handle on the road. They did lost by 33 at Oklahoma, but note that they were down just 12-points in the 3rd quarter of that game and were only outgained by 114 yards (had 33 first downs to Sooners 22).
The big thing here for me, is I think this Baylor offense is going to be able to move the football against this West Virginia defense. The Bears might have a more defensive-minded head coach in Matt Rhule, but they are still a very good offensive team. Baylor comes into this game ranked 18th in the country, averaging 475 ypg, behind the nation's 12th ranked passing attack.
The only two decent offenses the Mountaineers have faced all season are Texas Tech and Iowa State and they struggled big time in both. West Virginia gave up 463 yards and 34 points to the Red Raiders and 498 yards and 30 points to the Cyclones. Don't be fooled by the fact that the Mountaineers come in only giving up 20.5 ppg and 360 ypg.
Another thing to note is how West Virginia has struggled in similar spots as this one under head coach Dana Holgorsen. The Mountaineers are 5-15 ATS in their 20 games under Holgorsen off a bye, 5-13 in their last 18 off a loss by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS in their last 6 after getting outgained by 225 or more total yards. As for Rhule, he's 16-4 ATS as a head coach against teams outscoring opponents by 10+ points/game and 21-9 ATS in the 30 games where he's faced a team with a winning record. Give me Bears +14!
|10-23-18||Troy v. South Alabama +13||38-17||Loss||-110||9 h 50 m||Show|
40* TUESDAY NIGHT SUN BELT ATS ANNIHILATOR (S. Alabama +13)
I'll take my chances here with the Jaguars as a near two-touchdown home dog. I just think we are seeing Troy getting way too much love here after how poorly they played in the first game without starting quarterback Kaleb Barker, who tore his ACL in the Trojans win over Georgia State.
Backup Sawyer Smith was just 13 of 25 for 135 yards in the loss to Liberty and that’s a Liberty team that is currently ranked 120th in the country, giving up 488.4 ypg. The fact that Troy could only muster 293 yards against that defense really says a lot about how much they miss Barker.
I think the loss of Barker not only gives South Alabama a good shot at keeping this within the number, but makes them a live home dog. The thing to keep in mind with the Jaguars 2-5 start is they have played a pretty tough schedule. Four of their five losses have come on the road. One was against Oklahoma State, one was against Memphis and the other two against arguably the two best teams in the Sun Belt in Appalachian State and Georgia Southern. The only home loss was to Louisiana Tech and they lost by just 4 as an 11-point underdog.
I’m also not so sure Troy is as good as people think, as they have played a very favorable schedule to this point. The Trojans have a win at Nebraska (without Adrian Martinez), but the Cornhuskers were a complete mess to start the year. The only other decent team they played was Boise State at home and they lost by 36.
Troy comes in averaging 33.7 ppg, but have actually underachieved, as their opponents on average are giving up 36.8 ppg. The 207 rushing ypg and 5.6 yards/carry look great, but’s that’s basically on par with what their opponents are allowing.
You also have to factor in just how well South Alabama has played against Troy in recent meetings. They have won 3 of the last 4 in the series and covered 3 straight as an underdog. The Jaguars clearly put quite a bit into playing well against their in-state rivals and I expect nothing to change this time around.
Note that South Alabama has covered 4 straight at home against a team with a winning record and are 3-0-1 in their last 4 at home. Give me the Jaguars +13!
|10-22-18||Giants +4.5 v. Falcons||Top||20-23||Win||100||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Giants +4.5)
For me, I just think the Falcons are a team the Giants can have a lot of success against. Atlanta’s defense just hasn’t been the same since they lost two of their star players in linebacker Deion Jones and safety Keanu Neal. Prior to giving up 29 points to the Bucs last week, the Falcons had allowed at least 37 in each of their previous 3 games, including 40+ to both the Saints and Steelers. Atlanta comes into this game ranked 31st in the league, giving up 32.0 ppg and 30th in total defense, allowing 417.1 ypg.
Opposing teams have been able to do whatever they want against this defense, as the Falcons are 24th against the run (121.3 ypg) and 29th against the pass (295.8 ypg). As much as the Giants offense has struggled, this is a defense they can exploit early and often. I look for Saquon Barkley to put up monster numbers in this one and for Eli Manning to have one of his better games.
Not to make excuses for New York’s 1-5 start, but it certainly hasn’t been the easiest of schedules over their first 6 games. Their 3 home games have all come against playoff teams from last year in the Jaguars, Saints and Eagles and there’s nothing easy about their 3 road games against the Cowboys, Texans and Panthers. The rest of the schedule is very manageable for the Giants and with no team running away with the NFC East, I still think this team has a pulse and are going to lay it all on the line in this one.
I also like the matchup here for the Giants defense. Atlanta’s really struggled to get their run game going and while the numbers aren’t great, New York is only allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete 61% of their attempts. In comparison, the Falcons defense is allowing opposing QBs to complete 70.4% of their attempts. I’m not saying they are going to shutdown Atlanta’s high-powered passing attack, but I think they can make enough stops and score enough points to not only keep this game close enough to cover, but win it outright.
The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against a team with a losing record, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a win and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 30 or more points. Giants are 13-6-2 ATS in their last 21 off a double-digit home loss, 6-2 ATS in their last 8 after failing to cover their last game and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after a game where they scored 14 or fewer points. Give me the Giants +4.5!
|10-21-18||Bengals v. Chiefs -5.5||Top||10-45||Win||100||33 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City laying less than a touchdown at home. While both teams are fresh off crushing losses in Week 6, I think the Bengals are going to have the much harder time bouncing back. Cincinnati desperately wanted to beat the Steelers and snap that 5-game losing streak to Pittsburgh. To lose the way they did, where they felt like they had won the game, only magnifies the loss.
As for the Chiefs loss at New England, there just wasn’t the same vibe, even though the way they loss was very similar. That felt more like a win for Kansas City. Not many teams can rally from a 24-9 deficit on the road against the Patriots and take a lead in the 4th quarter. I think that loss really showed this team what they are capable of and they now have the belief that this whole Super Bowl thing is well within their reach.
With all that said, I would have leaned towards taking the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown before last week’s outcome. What a lot of people overlook with Kansas City’s 5-1 start, is they have only played two home games. Both of which they won by double-digits and had commanding leads. They were 35-10 at the half against the 49ers at home in Week 3 and 20-0 on the Jaguars a couple weeks back.
The Chiefs have one of the biggest homefield advantages in the NFL and Arrowhead is going to be electric with this being a prime time game under the lights. While the offense has proven it can play anywhere at any time, I think playing at home really helps out a defense that has struggled.
Another promising sign for the Chiefs defense is the Bengals’ offense managed just 275 yards at home against a Steelers defense that hasn’t played a whole lot better than Kansas City’s defense early on. I think some of that is just the limitations of Cincinnati’s offense with Andy Dalton and some of it’s the injuries that have piled up on that side of the ball.
As for the Chiefs offense, I think we have seen enough of Patrick Mahomes and this talented set of skill players to know they aren’t going anywhere. I think Kansas City is going to easily put up 30+ points on the board and that should be more than enough to cash in a win and cover against a physically and emotionally drained Bengals team. Give me the Chiefs -5.5!
|10-21-18||Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5||17-20||Win||100||28 h 42 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Under 41.5)
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER 41.5, as I just think we have to limited offenses going up against two really good defenses.
I know the Cowboys just put up 40 points on what many feel is one of the best defenses in the NFL, but Jacksonville was a bit banged up defensively and it really did nothing to change my perception of this Dallas offense. Almost all of the damage came via the running game, as Prescott was just 17 of 27 for 183 yards. The Cowboys are simply one-dimensional and when they struggle to get the running game points are going to be very hard to come by.
Washington has been outstanding against the run this season. The Redskins rank 6th in the NFL, giving up just 90.2 ypg and the most they have allowed in any single game is 104 yards, so they have been very consistent at shutting down the opposing teams running attack. The only team to score more than 21 points against Washington is the Saints, who absolutely torched them through the air. That’s not a concern with Prescott and the Cowboys 29th ranked passing attack, which has topped 200 yards passing just once all season.
It’s a very similar story with Washington’s offense, which has really struggled to get into any kind of rhythm with Alex Smith at quarterback. It’s not that Smith has played bad, he’s just limited with what he can do. The biggest difference between Smith with the Redskins and Smith with the Chiefs, is he doesn’t have the brilliant Andy Reid calling the plays. Washington is 25th in the NFL in total offense (344 ypg) and 24th in scoring (21.2 ppg).
I have hard time seeing them figuring things out against a Dallas defense that is playing lights out to start the 2018 season. The Cowboys come in 7th in the NFL against the run (90.7 ypg) and 8th against the pass (224.5 ypg). They are also 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, giving up just 17.2 ppg.
Add in this being a division matchup, where there’s a lot of familiarity between both teams and the winner of this one guaranteed to be in at least a share of 1st place in the NFC East after Sunday, I don’t see this one getting to 40 points. Give me the UNDER 41.5!
|10-21-18||Panthers v. Eagles -5||Top||21-17||Loss||-110||24 h 19 m||Show|
50* PANTHERS/EAGLES NFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Eagles -5)
I'll take my chances laying the points with the Eagles at home in this one. While this will surely be the public side, I think the Eagles are still a little undervalued from their sluggish start to the season. Keep in mind that prior to the easy cover over the Giants, Philadelphia was just 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS in their previous 4 games.
I also think there’s the thought process out there that the win over the Giants is nothing to get excited about with how bad New York has been playing. I’m not saying the Giants are a good football team, but to go on the road and beat a division rival by 21 points is not easy to do, especially on a short week of rest.
I wasn’t all that surprised to see the Eagles get off to a slow start, as there’s not the same sense of urgency to start a new season after winning the Super Bowl the previous year. Plus, Carson Wentz missed the first couple games because of injury and it was going to take some time before he returned to that MVP form. Wentz has got better and better with each start. He was 26 of 36 for 278 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Giants and would have thrown for more if the score wasn’t so lopsided. He’s now thrown for 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in his last 3 starts.
I look for Wentz to have a big day here against a Carolina secondary that has struggled when up against a legit passing attack. A couple weeks ago they gave up 382 passing yards to the Giants. The week before that they gave up 330 to Andy Dalton and the Bengals.
I just don’t see Cam Newton and the Panthers offense being able to keep pace. Carolina’s offense is built around their run game and that’s evident by the fact they come in ranked 4th in the league in rushing (139.4 ypg) compared to 26th in passing (222.4 ypg). The Eagles aren’t a defense you want to have to pick up yards against on the ground. Philadelphia is 2nd in the league, giving up just 79.8 ypg and that’s with them allowing 147 to the Giants last week.
More than anything, I just love how the Eagles responded with their backs against the wall and I think that’s something they are going to build off of. I have a really hard time seeing them go back to how they played early on. This is still one of the most talented teams in the league and I fully expect them to play like it the rest of the way. Give me the Eagles -5.
|10-21-18||Patriots -2.5 v. Bears||38-31||Win||100||24 h 12 m||Show|
40* NFL EARLY BIRD VEGAS LINE MISTAKE (Patriots -2.5)
I'll take my chances with the Patriots laying less than a field goal on the road against the Bears. I just don't know how you don't take New England at this price, no matter the circumstances. I know that the Pats will likely be without Gronkowski, but with Josh Gordon becoming more and more of a factor in the offense and how Brady can pick teams apart with Julian Edelman and his backs coming out of the backfield, I think New England's offense will be able to do enough to get the win.
The key here is I think Bill Belichick and that Patriots defense is going to make life miserable for Mitch Trubisky. If you take away the 6 TD performance against an awful Bucs defense, Trubisky has just 5 TD passes in his other 4 games combined. I just think he's a very limited quarterback at this point in his career and with the way NE can disguise their defense, I think he's going to cost this team a chance to win.
I love this Bears defense, but I think they are getting a little too much respect right now. Chicago's defense is really good, but they also have played a really easy schedule. Their 5 games have been against the Packers, Seahawks, Cardinals, Bucs and Dolphins. Green Bay is maybe the only potential playoff team out of that bunch. This is a big step up in class and I'm taking the team laying less than a field goal that has the far superior quarterback and coach. Give me the Patriots -2.5!
|10-21-18||Bills v. Colts -7||5-37||Win||100||24 h 8 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS NO-BRAINER (Colts -7)
I'll take my chances here with the Colts laying just a touchdown at home against the Bills. I think the only thing that is keeping this line from being more is the fact that Indianapolis comes into this game at just 1-5. The thing is, if you have watched the Colts, you know they are better than their record.
They have a couple of losses where they blew leads and others where they just missed out on a chance to win late. Not to mention they have had a difficult schedule to start the year with 4 of their first 6 on the road.
The good thing about the Colts being 1-5, is we can bank on them laying it all on the line at home in this game, as they have to feel like their season is on the line with this game. A loss here and it's time to start thinking about next year. I expect them to step up to the challenge and deliver in a big way.
I think due to the Colts struggles defensively, people are just assuming the Bills are going to be able to put up points. I'm not buying it. Buffalo is starting Derek Anderson at quarterback, who they just signed a couple weeks ago and hasn't started in the NFL since 2016. There's going to be zero chemistry with that offense and it's already one of the least talented units in the league. Buffalo has scored fewer than 14 points in 4 of their 6 games. Give me the Colts -7!
|10-20-18||Vanderbilt v. Kentucky -12.5||Top||7-14||Loss||-105||26 h 43 m||Show|
50* NCAAF PRE-BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (Kentucky -12.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kentucky covering at home against Vanderbilt. I just don't think line is anywhere close to enough for this matchup. I don't having their perfect 5-0 start snapped in an overtime loss at Texas A&M is going keep this Wildcats team from returning right to the form that saw them open up 5-0 with a win at Florida and home wins over Mississippi State and South Carolina. They beat all 3 of those teams by double-digits. They could barely move the football against Texas A&M and still had a legit shot at winning the game. I had the Aggies in that game, as I just didn't know how Kentucky was going to be able to move the ball with how much they rely on the run and how good Texas A&M is at stopping it. Not to mention how hard it is to play at Texas A&M under the lights on Saturday night. Now it's Kentucky under the lights at home against a Vandy team that had Florida on the ropes and proceeded to get outscored 34-3. I just think they caught Florida sleepwalking through the start of that game. This team lost by 28 at Georgia and 23 at home to South Carolina. I think motivated Kentucky team, coming off a bye will be too much for the Commodores to handle. Give me the Wildcats -12.5!
|10-20-18||Colorado +17.5 v. Washington||Top||13-27||Win||100||22 h 39 m||Show|
50* NCAAF UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE MONTH (Colorado +17.5)
I'l take my chances here with Colorado as a 3-score underdog against the Huskies. I just feel Washington is going to have a really tough time bouncing back from that crushing overtime loss to Oregon. The Huskies had their chances to seal the win in regulation. They passed up on a field goal to take a 3-point lead, going for it and failing to covert on 4th & 1 from the Oregon 26 early in the 4th quarter. After the defense forced Oregon to punt, Washington again drove it into Ducks territory, only this time to miss a short 37-yard field goal as time expired.That loss on it’s own would be tough for any team to bounce back from, but that’s not all the Huskies have to overcome. The loss to Oregon all but closed the door on the Huskies hopes of making the 4-team playoff. After losing their opener to Auburn, they basically had to win out to have a shot. When your entire focus is on winning the national title, it can be really tough for teams to come to grips with the fact that goal is no longer within reach.It’s why I not only like Colorado to cover the number, but give them a shot at pulling off the upset. The Buffaloes only won 5 games last year, so a loss to USC on the road is not going to derail the spirits of this team. I certainly don’t think they are going to come out flat against Washington. A team they have not beaten since they made the switch from the Big 12 to the Pac-12 back in 2011.This is also a very talented Buffaloes team that even if Washington had won last week against the Ducks, I would strongly consider taking at this price. While the offense struggled against the Trojans, the defense played well, limiting USC to just 334 yards and 16 first downs.
Another thing to keep in mind with Colorado’s poor offensive showing against USC, is the Buffaloes are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 after a game where they had 275 or fewer total yards. I think the books have once again undervalued this team in this spot. Give me the Buffaloes +17.5!
|10-20-18||NC State v. Clemson -16.5||7-41||Win||100||22 h 34 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Clemson -16.5)
I got no problems following trends with proven results and this play falls into one that hasn't lost in two decades. Favorites of two touchdowns or more against an undefeated team of 5-0 or better are perfect 8-0 ATS going back to 1994. I'll gladly take my chances here with Clemson making it 9-0. This Tigers team hasn't played anywhere close to their full potential early on. I think they are close and their 63-3 win on the road against Wake Forest was as impressive as it gets. They outgained the Demon Deacons 698 to 249. I know NC State has played Clemson close the last two times, but I just don't this Wolfpack team is anywhere close to as good as they were in those matches. Their best wins are home victories against Virginia and Boston College and they only beat the Eagles by 5. They haven't seen anything close to an offense as talented as Clemson and I got a feeling after that Wake Forest game, this Tigers defense is fed up with people saying they are underachieving and will be out to make a statement. Give me Clemson -16.5!
|10-20-18||North Carolina +10.5 v. Syracuse||37-40||Win||100||19 h 31 m||Show|
40* NCAAF PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (UNC +10.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Tar Heels as a double-digit road dog against the Orange. North Carolina should have beat Virginia Tech last week. The Tar Heels led 16-7 midway thru the 3rd quarter and still had a 19-14 advantage late in the 4th, before giving up a TD with 19 seconds left to lose 22-19. UNC outgained a good Hokies team 522 to 375. I think they come into this game with a ton of confidence on offense and the Orange are a defense they can exploit. Syracuse is 96th in the country against the run and 69th agains the pass. It's not that I don't think the Orange are a bad team, but I think they are still overvalued from that 4-1 ATS start, which included that close call against Clemson. They followed it up with a loss to Pitt and the 4 wins are nothing to get excited about. They played Clemson close last year and followed it up by losing their final 5 games. They should be favored at home over UNC, but not by double-digits, as the Tar Heels could easily win this outright. Give me North Carolina +10.5!
|10-20-18||Cincinnati v. Temple -160||17-24||Win||100||18 h 6 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD MONEY LINE MASSACRE (Temple -160)
I'll take my chances here with Temple. More times than not when you have ranked team that is getting points, the other side is the way to go. We have cashed in this exact scenario each of the last two weeks. Two week ago we had Texas A&M as a home favorite against No. 13 Kentucky and the Aggies won and covered. Last week it was USC who was a home favorite over No. 19 Colorado. Both times the ranked road underdog came in undefeated. Same thing here with No. 20 Cincinnati (6-0). The Bearcats 6-0 start is a direct result of their schedule. The opponents they have played are giving up 39.4 ppg and 517 ypg, which is interesting to note, as the Bearcats only average 38.3 ppg and 468 ypg. Temple got off to a bad start, but have been playing really well of late. They are 4-1 in their last 5 with road wins at Maryland and Navy. I think the Owls are the better team by even more than the number, but I'll gladly lay a little extra juice for them to have to just win outright. Give me Temple -160!
|10-19-18||Air Force -9.5 v. UNLV||41-35||Loss||-110||10 h 47 m||Show|
40* AIR FORCE/UNLV FRIDAY NIGHT ATS KNOCKOUT (Air Force -9.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Falcons laying less than double-digits against the Rebels. The matchup here heavily favors Air Force.
I also think we are getting a shorter number, due to this being a potential trap game for the Falcons off the big game against San Diego State and a home game against Boise State looming next week. Had they pulled off the win over the Aztecs I might by this being a flat spot, but with a 2-4 record, Air Force needs this game if they want a legit shot at becoming bowl eligible.
Offensively, these are two very similar teams in terms of how the majority of their yards are produced. Air Force is 13th in the country in rushing (248.3 ypg) and just 126th in passing (106.8 ypg). UNLV is 8th in the country in rushing (257.2 ypg) and 124th in passing (123.7 ypg). Neither team offers much in terms of passing, but Air Force has been the more effective of the two when throwing. The Falcons average 7.3 yards/pass attempt, where the Rebels only average 4.8 yards/pass attempt.
You have to think given the numbers, that the team who has the better success establishing the run will have the edge in this game. As far as which of these two teams is better at stopping the run, it’s not even close. Air Force is 8th in the nation, giving up just 101.2 rushing yards/game and are holding teams to 3.2 yards/carry. UNLV on the other hand is 104th in the country against the run, allowing 199 ypg and are giving up 5.2 ypc. Note that Air Force dominated a run-heavy team in Navy, beating the Midshipmen 35-7 as a 2-point underdog.
I just think that due to the fact that both teams are sitting with a record of 2-4, we are seeing a much lower number than we should, as I think Air Force is without a doubt the superior team. The Falcons have 3 road losses against the likes of FAU, Utah State and San Diego State. UNLV’s only two wins are against UTEP and Prairie View and just a couple weeks ago lost at home to New Mexico by 36 points. I just don’t feel like it’s asking a lot for Air Force to win here by two touchdowns. Give me the Falcons -9.5!
|10-18-18||Stanford v. Arizona State +3||Top||20-13||Loss||-120||10 h 14 m||Show|
50* NCAAF PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH (Arizona St +3)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Sun Devils as a home dog. I just feel the value here is clearly with Arizona State, as Stanford has no business being a road favorite against the Sun Devils.
For me, I just don’t trust this Cardinal offense. With or without Bryce Love, Stanford has struggled to run the football. The Cardinal are 127th in the country in rushing at 85.7 ypg. In their last game against the Utes, they managed just 42 yards on 28 attempts. K.J. Costello threw for 381 yards, but had two interceptions and a lost fumble.
That struggling Stanford offense will be up against a talented Arizona State defense, that has not allowed a single team to score more than 28 points against them all season. A pretty impressive feat given they have played the likes of Michigan State, Washington, San Diego State and Colorado.
The only one of those that came at home was against the Spartans and they held them to just 13 points. Their run defense at home has been outstanding, as they are giving up just 2.9 yards/carry. They should be able to make Stanford one dimensional and the entire unit should feed off a rowdy home crowd under the lights.
The other key here is the Arizona State offense should be able to move the ball against a Stanford defense that has been torched in their last 3 games. The Cardinal gave up 31 points (should have been more) and 524 yards to Oregon, 38 points and 550 yards to Notre Dame and 40 points and 421 yards to Utah. During this stretch they have allowed 224 yards/game on the ground. Stanford is a mere 79th in the country in total defense and 108th in total offense. That’s not the numbers you expect to see from a road favorite in a game like this.
Arizona State is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 off a SU loss, 5-1 in their last 6 at home and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record. They are also a dominant 18-2 ATS in their last 20 vs a team that can’t run the football (90 or less yards/game). Give me the Sun Devils +3!
|10-18-18||Broncos v. Cardinals OVER 42||45-10||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
40* CARDINALS/BRONCOS TNF TOTAL KNOCKOUT (OVER 42)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER in this one. It’s simply asking too much for NFL players to play up to their full potential on just 3 days of rest, especially defensive guys, where energy and effort is everything on that side of the ball. The OVER is 4-1 in Thursday games this season with teams playing on short rest and the only exceptions was the Jets/Browns, who combined for 38 with a total of 39.
The difficult part with the OVER in this matchup, is how bad the Cardinals offense has looked this season. I’m not saying they haven’t been bad, but I think they are going to improve quite a bit over the course of the season, as rookie quarterback Josh Rosen gets more and more comfortable. I wouldn’t be shocked if Rosen and that offense had a big day in this one.
Denver’s defense is reeling right now. After giving up 323 rushing yards to the Jets in Week 5, they gave up another 270 yards on the ground to the Rams. It’s only a matter of time before David Johnson goes off and he’s trending upwards with 4 touchdowns in his last 3 games. If they can get him going, which I think they will, it’s going to make it so much easier on Rosen to make plays through the air.
It’s a similar story for Denver. While Keenum has the ability to drop back every play, their offense is working at it’s best when they get the running game going. Arizona is 31st in the league against the run (152.2 ypg). You also have to think that Cardinals defense will be dragging a bit after a very physical game against the Vikings.
Another thing to keep in mind with the short 3-day break between games, is there’s not a lot of familiarity between the two teams in these non-conference games. Just another advantage for the two offenses in this one. I’m not saying it’s going to be 34-30 shootout, but all we need is for something like 24-20 to cash a winner. Give me the OVER 42.
|10-15-18||49ers v. Packers -9||Top||30-33||Loss||-110||9 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Packers -9)
I'll take my chances here laying the big number here with Green Bay at home. I don’t love backing big favorites like this, but when it’s Aaron Rodgers against C.J. Beathard, I’m willing to roll the dice, especially when it’s a prime time matchup and the Packers in desperate need of a win.
It’s really a shame that Garoppolo got hurt, as this 49ers team had a ton of upside. While Kyle Shanahan is going to get the most out of what he has to work with, he’s got his hands tied with Beathard. Some times you can turnovers can be fluky, other times it’s just a result of who a team has under center. Beathard has made 2 starts and thrown 4 interceptions and fumbled 3 times (lost 2 of them).
I just don’t see it getting any better for Beathard against a Green Bay defense that is playing better than people realize. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in total defense, giving up just 313.8 ypg. Their strength has been their secondary, which is 2nd in the NFL, allowing just 208.8 ypg.
With the 49ers expected to be without their most explosive back in Matt Breida (averaging 7.5 yards/carry) and three starters on the offensive line questionable to play, San Francisco’s only hope of moving the ball is via the passing game. That’s a problem, as Green Bay is going to be able to unleash their pass rush (49ers allowed 18 sacks) and sit back in coverage and wait for Beathard to make a mistake.
It’s also worth pointing out that Rodgers and the Packers have been a good bet when laying a big number. Green Bay has been a favorite of 6 to 13 points 28 times with Rodgers at quarterback and are 20-8 ATS in those games. Green Bay is also 24-11 ATS in their last 35 at home and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Give me the Packers -9!
|10-14-18||Chiefs v. Patriots OVER 59.5||40-43||Win||100||29 h 9 m||Show|
40* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS SNF TOTAL NO-BRAINER (Over 59.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5 on Sunday Night Football. I know this is a ridiculously high total, but with the talent these two teams have at quarterback and at the skill positions and the defenses they will be up against, I think both have a legit shot at eclipsing 30-points.
There will be plenty who point out Mahomes coming back to reality after throwing his first two interceptions of the season and failing to throw a TD pass. Was it his best game? No. The kid still threw for 313 yards on 22 of 38 passing against what most considered the best defense in the league. One that a lot of other more accomplished quarterbacks have struggled against.
KC didn’t just have 300+ yards passing on the best defense in the league, they also rushed for 126 yards. I think the Chiefs are going to continue doing exactly what they have been doing, and that’s move the football up and down the field on the Patriots. New England’s defense just doesn’t impress me. They let Blake Bortles throw for 377 yards and last week Andrew Luck had 355 yards playing with a bunch of scrubs.
As for the Chiefs defense, they were fortunate to only hold the Jaguars to 14 points, as Jacksonville moved the ball at will with 502 yards and 29 first downs. Bortles simply made a bunch of costly mistakes and the offense turned it over 5 times. KC isn’t going to get those breaks against a quarterback the likes of Tom Brady. Last week the Patriots got back one of his top targets in Julian Edelman and I think this could be the game where Josh Gordon really starts to take off in that offense.
I see big plays happening at every turn and this being one of the most entertaining games of the season to date. OVER is 9-2 in Andy Reid’s last 11 games as the coach of the Chiefs when KC is a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-9 in the Patriots last 28 under Belichick at home with a total at 49.5 or more. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|10-14-18||Ravens -2.5 v. Titans||Top||21-0||Win||100||25 h 17 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the Ravens laying less than a field goal on the road. The Titans come into this game with a winning record at 3-2, but they could just as easily be 0-5. All 3 of their wins have come by just 3-points. I just don't see them being able to keep winning games the way they have. Sure, the defense has been playing lights out, but this is one of the worst offenses in the league. Tennessee is 29th in the NFL in total offense, averaging just 294 ypg.They have little to no threat of a passing game after losing star tight end Delanie Walker and haven't been running the ball nearly as effective as they did a year ago. I just don't see the Titans being able to generate enough offense against this Ravens defense, which I think is one of the best in the league. Baltimore comes in ranked 5th against the run (88.4 ypg) and 4th against the pass (215.4 ypg). They also lead the league in scoring defense, allowing just 15.4 ppg.As for the Ravens' offense, I think they bounce back in a big way here after that ugly showing against the Browns. Even after scoring just 9-points against Cleveland, Baltimore is still 11th in the league in scoring at 26.4 ppg. They also sit 11th in the league in total offense, averaging 399.4 ypg.Going back to the Titans defense and it eventually falling off, they could be without one of their best players, as linebacker Wesley Woodyard is questionable with a shoulder injury. Losing Woodyard would be a big blow, as he's tied for the team lead in tackles.Another thing to note about Tennessee's defense, is they have played a bunch of teams that have struggled offensively early, as their opponents for the season are only averaging 19.3 ppg, which makes the 17.2 ppg the Titans are allowing that much less impressive.Baltimore is also a solid 16-6-4 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record and a perfect 4-0 in their last 4 off a SU loss. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
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