|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|09-15-19||Bears -2.5 v. Broncos||16-14||Loss||-110||90 h 60 m||Show|
40* NFL VEGAS ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Bears -2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Chicago bouncing back from that ugly showing in Week 1. Bears offense looked really bad in a 10-3 loss to the Packers, but I think people are really underestimating how good Green Bay is defensively this year. The game plan wasn't up to par and I don't see Matt Nagy and his staff laying another egg here.
More than anything, this is no where close to the Broncos teams of years past. Denver still has Von Miller, but are not nearly as good in the secondary Derek Carr only had 4 incompletions and wasn't sacked once.
I also did not like what I saw from Joe Flacco and that Denver offense. He made some really poor throws on what should have been easy completions. The offensive line is not great and they lack some serious playmakers at the skill positions. Chicago's defense will eat this offense up. Give me the Bears -2.5!
|09-15-19||Saints v. Rams -2.5||Top||9-27||Win||100||90 h 52 m||Show|
50* NFL RAMS/SAINTS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Rams -2.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Rams laying a short number at home against the Saints. I just don't get why there isn't more hype around this Rams team. Even after going on the road and getting a win at Carolina, which is not easy to do, people still aren't talking about this team like they were a year ago.
I love that, as it keeps the Rams focused on the task at hand. There's gonna be a ton of talk leading up to this game about the non-call on PI in the NFC Championship Game. I think LA will be sick of hearing how they should have lost and they make a statement here.
Let's not forget the Saints are coming off a emotional roller-coaster in their win on Monday Night Football against the Texans. They got 1 less day of prep and a long way to travel. I think they struggle to keep pace with the Rams on Sunday. Give me Los Angeles -2.5!
|09-15-19||Jaguars +9 v. Texans||12-13||Win||100||99 h 39 m||Show|
40* NFL EASY MONEY ATS MASSACRE (Jaguars +9)
I'll take my chances here with the Jags getting a big number against the Texans. I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to the Jaguars ugly loss to the Chiefs in Week 1 and the fact they lost their starting quarterback in Foles. No way is the public going to want to back Jacksonville on the road and I feel the books are taking full advantage of that by posting an inflated number.
The biggest thing for me and the Jaguars lopsided loss to Kansas City, is I wasn’t the least bit surprised. The Chiefs were one of my favorite plays in Week 1. There’s not many teams in the NFL that can score with Kansas City. I’m not about to write off Jacksonville’s defense because they couldn’t stop Mahomes and all those weapons they have on the offensive side of the ball. In fact, I still think it’s one of the more talented defensive units in the league.
I think that defense is going to have a big bounce back performance against the Texans. Clearly there’s still a lot of problems with the Houston offensive line if Watson is getting hit 11 times and sacked 6 times. While the Jags didn’t record a sack in Week 1, they put a ton of pressure on Mahomes. I think they can control the line of scrimmage and force some big turnovers with that pressure.
As for as the Foles injury is concerned, that’s a tough blow for this team. However, I watched that entire game and I was really impressed with what I saw from Gardner Minshew in relief. If wasn’t against a Chiefs defense that no one thinks highly of, I think people would be raving about how well this kid played in his first NFL action. I don’t care who it’s against, you are doing something right if you complete 22 of 25 for 275 against a defense that knows you have to throw playing from behind.
I get the Saints are great offensive team, but at the same time, this not as talented a defense without Clowney in the front seven. Not only did Brees carve them up for 370 yards and 2 scores, New Orleans averaged 7.0 yards/carry on the ground.
Best part about all of this is we don’t need the Jaguars to win. All they have to do is lose by single-digits and I think they do that without any problem.
|09-15-19||49ers +2.5 v. Bengals||Top||41-17||Win||100||86 h 30 m||Show|
50* NFL NON-CONF PLAY OF THE YEAR (49ers +2.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with the 49ers. I was really high on this San Francisco team coming into the year and really wasn’t expecting much of the Bengals, especially early on without star wideout A.J. Green. I think we are getting a gift here with the 49ers as a dog.
I’m not sold on the Bengals offense. It looks nice to have a quarterback throw for 400+ yards, but part of that was Cincinnati having no choice but to throw with how their running game was struggling. Bengals only had 34 rushing yards on 14 attempts, which is 2.4 yards/carry. The other stat that jumps out to me is that Seattle sacked Dalton 5 times.
When you can't run the ball and give up a bunch of sacks, that tells me there’s some problems up front on the offensive line. Also, when you can’t run it makes it really tough in the red zone. Note that both of the Bengals TD’s came on long passes and one was on a flea-flicker and the other came via a bad play by the defender.
While the offense wasn’t great in the opener, the 49ers defense played great. They made life a living hell for Tampa quarterback Jameis Winston. Not only did they intercept him twice, they sacked him 3 times made several more plays in the backfield. San Francisco has a ton of 1st round picks in their front seven, so I don’t think that performance was a fluke.
As for the 49ers offense, they did left some plays out there they should have had. I think the offense is actually helping us here. They certainly wouldn’t be a dog if the offense had played better. I still like the talent on that side of the ball and expect them to bounce back with a big game here. Give me the 49ers +2.5!
|09-14-19||Texas Tech -2 v. Arizona||Top||14-28||Loss||-105||94 h 44 m||Show|
50* NCAAF LATE NIGHT PLAY OF THE MONTH (Texas Tech -2)
I'll take my chances here with Texas Tech as a small road favorite against the Wildcats. I think people are sleeping on the Red Raiders. I just think people wrote this team off and there's nothing to get excited about with blowout wins over Montana St and UTEP.
I know Kingsbury is coaching in the NFL, but I loved the hire of Matt Wells from Utah State. Wells climbed his way through the ranks on the offensive side and last year the Aggies averaged 47.5 ppg and 497 ypg. He brought both his OC and DC with him from Utah State.
He's got great talent at QB in Alan Bowman and the defense has been outstanding. They only gave up 8 first downs to Montana State and just 11 to UTEP. That's the sign of a team that's locked in.
Arizona lost to Hawaii and then got in a shootout with Northern Arizona. They gave up 595 yards to the Rainbow Warriors and 442 to the Lumberjacks. Texas Tech is going to score a ton. I'm banking on that defense to create more than enough separation for an easy cover. Take Texas Tech!
|09-14-19||Florida State v. Virginia -7||Top||24-31||Push||0||70 h 35 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS MONEY PLAY OF THE MONTH (Virginia -7)
I'm going to take my chances here with Virginia. I'll be the first to admit that I thought Florida State was going to be a much better team in 2019. I loved the over on their win total. With that said, I don't have the same feelings about this team after watching them in their first two games.
They lost the opener at home to Boise State 36-31, blowing a 31-13 lead. Given the expectations with that Boise State team, that was considered an okay loss. Not so much after the Broncos barely beat Marshall at home the following week. Then came the shocking 45-44 OT win at home against ULM.
I got major concerns with Florida State's defense. The same Boise State offene that had 407 yards and 38 first downs against the Seminoles, managed just 14 points on their home field. ULM had 419 yards and 26 first downs.
Virginia's defense is too good to allow their offense to score at will. I just don't see Florida State being able to do enough against the Cavaliers defense, especially on the road in what is going to a hostile environment in a night game. Give me Virginia -7!
|09-14-19||Louisiana Tech -10 v. Bowling Green||35-7||Win||100||88 h 12 m||Show|
40* NCAAF SMALL CONF ATS BLOWOUT OF THE WEEK (La Tech -10)
I'll take my chances here with the Bulldogs laying just 10-points at Bowling Green. I think this is a much bigger mismatch than the number would suggest, but we are getting a good number because of how poor La Tech has looked in their first two.
The Bulldogs fell 45-14 at Texas in Week 1, failing to cover as a 19-point dog. They then only won 20-14 at home against Grambling as a 30-point favorite. I think that loss to Texas looked a lot worse at the time, as a lot of people were thinking the Longhorns might be down with just 8 starters back. After watching how well Texas played against LSU, I think La Tech more than held their own.
The close call to Grambling gets a pass in my book. Grambling is only 5-miles from the Bulldogs Campus in Ruston. Those games always mean more to the little-brother in those fights. I think the close call could actually work in our favor and have them more focused than they need to be to roll the Falcons.
Bowling Green is bad. They just lost 52-0 to Kansas State and managed just 5 first downs and 140 total yards. Wildcats called off the dogs up 38-0 at the half. I think it says a lot the Falcons weren't able to even add some garbage yards and first downs late in that game.
If K-State can put 52 points with only 14 in the 2nd half, I have to believe La Tech can score 40 here. I don't think the Falcons get much more than 20. Give me the Bulldogs -10!
|09-14-19||USC -3.5 v. BYU||27-30||Loss||-111||87 h 43 m||Show|
40* NCAAF NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (USC -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with USC laying less than a touchdown on the road against BYU. I was high on the Trojans coming into this season and upset I didn't trust them more last week against Stanford. I just didn't know what to expect from Slovis in his first start.
The guy didn't disappoint with 377 yards and 3 scores on 28 of 33 passing. I get it will be tough to top that, but if he sniffs 300 yards with 2 TDs and completes 60%, that's still pretty damn good. USC has some stud WRs that I think BYU will have a hard time hanging with.
Let's also not overlook the fact that offense should be more explosive under new OC Graham Harrell. He's one of the bright offensive minds in the game. Did some really impressive things in his 3 years at North Texas.
I hear a lot of people wanting to fade USC right away after that big win over Stanford. I'd much rather stay on the train and roll the dice they keep covering. BYU has to be exhausted after an emotional opener against in-state rival Utah and then playing in that OT thriller at home against Tennessee, which they won 29-26.
I get the Vols are a storied SEC program and were expected to be better, but let's not get carried away with BYU beating a team that lost on their home field to a Sun Belt team in Georgia State. Give me the Trojans -3.5!
|09-14-19||NC State -6.5 v. West Virginia||Top||27-44||Loss||-110||83 h 30 m||Show|
50* NCAAF POWER 5 NON-CONF PLAY OF THE MONTH (NC State -6.5)
I'll take my chances here with NC State laying less than a touchdown. I just don’t think the Wolfpack are going to have much trouble here. I think we got a NC State team that was flying under the radar coming into the season against a West Virginia team that is a lot worse off than people think.
I definitely think this line would be closer to double-digits if NC State had a better win on their resume. People just aren’t going to get excited about the Wolfpack beating the likes of East Carolina and Western Carolina. I get it, but at the same time they dominated both of those teams.
A lot of people will be talking about their new playmakers on offense, but I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from the defense. They held East Carolina to just 269 yards and that’s a Pirates offense people were high on behind sophomore QB Holton Ahlers. Western Carolina managed just 106 yards and 6 first downs.
I think the Wolfpack defense could pitch a shutout here against the Mountaineers. West Virginia is averaging a mere 232 yards/game and 3.7 yards/play. Just to compare, NC State is averaging 522 yards/game and 6.7 yards/play.
I’m sure some are giving WVU a pass for how they looked against Missouri last week, but let’s not forget that the Tigers lost 37-31 at Wyoming in Week 1.
The big problem I see with the Mountaineers offense is their inability to run the ball. West Virginia has attempted 56 rushes in their first two games and have a mere 64 yards to account for it. That to me spells serious offensive line problems. Mountaineers will routinely be playing behind the chains, which means a lot of 3 and outs, settling for field goals and turnovers. Give me NC State -6.5
|09-14-19||Ohio State v. Indiana +17||51-10||Loss||-110||83 h 12 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Indiana +17)
I'll take my chances here with the Hoosiers. Despite the fact that Indiana has lost 24 straight to the Buckeyes, they have consistently played them tougher than expected.
Last year they end up losing by 23 points, but it was a lot closer. Indiana had a 17-14 lead in the 2nd quarter and only trailed by 8 at the half and 9 at the end of 3 quarters.
It was a very similar type of game the last time they played in Bloomington (2017). Indiana had a 14-13 lead at the half and were up 21-20 with less than 5 minutes to go in the 3rd quarter. Buckeyes then go on a 29-0 run to win and cover. Note that's the only time Ohio State has covered in the last 8 meetings in the series.
This is the smallest the Buckeyes have been favored over Indiana since they were a 19-point favorite in 2012. Ohio State won by just 3-points in a 52-49 shootout.
I would like Indiana even more in this game if it was a little later kickoff. However, I'm still expecting a very rowdy home crowd backing the Hoosiers.
I also think there are some things here to be cautious with in Ohio State. This will be the Buckeyes first true road game of 2019. While Ohio State was 3-1 in true road games last year, but the lone loss was a 49-20 setback as a 12-point favorite at Purdue. They also only won by 1-point at Penn State and by just 1-point as a 14-point favorite at Maryland.
Another thing to note is that while FAU and Cincinnati are two well respected Group of 5 opponents, both might not be as good as we thought. The Owls got annihilated 48-14 by UCF at home in Week 2, while the Bearcats win over UCLA looked a lot less impressive after the Bruins fell 23-14 at home to San Diego State. Give me the Hoosiers +17!
|09-14-19||Kansas State +8.5 v. Mississippi State||31-24||Win||100||63 h 32 m||Show|
40* NCAAF VEGAS ODDSMAKERS ATS SHOCKER (Kansas St +8.5)
I'll take my chances with Kansas State as a 8.5-point dog here. I would the line close to a pick’em on a neutral site, which means I would have the Bulldogs around a 3.5 to 4-point home favorite. Big time value at this number.
It’s not a surprise that Mississippi State is a bit overvalued early on in 2019. You got a lot of SEC bias and while they haven’t looked great in their first two games, people will only focus on the outcomes.
Kansas State on the other hand is a team that I feel is flying under the radar. Last time Snyder left the program it went to shit and the Wildcats were just 5-7 last year. I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from the offense and the defense is a lot better than people think.
New head coach Chris Klieman won 4 FCS National Championships in his 5 years as the head coach of the Bison. He's the real deal.
I also like the revenge angle for the Wildcats. This is a game they definitely had circled on the schedule and they got nothing to look ahead to with a bye week on deck. Mississippi State on the other hand has their SEC opener on deck with Kentucky coming to down in Week 4.
Lastly, we have a great system backing a play on Kansas State. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points are 43-15 (74%) ATS after scoring 42 points or more in each of their last 2 games. Give me the Wildcats +8.5!
|09-13-19||North Carolina v. Wake Forest -3||Top||18-24||Win||100||67 h 37 m||Show|
50* UNC/WAKE FOREST SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Wake Forest -3)
I'll take my chances with Wake Forest. Betting public is all over the Tar Heels in this one, which only makes the Demon Deacons more.
I was really big on Wake Forest coming into this season and I’ve liked what I’ve seen, especially from the offense. The defense still needs some work, but they should definitely get a boost from what figures to a rowdy home crowd.
Another thing here is this will be the first true road game for UNC's true freshman Sam Howell and he’s going to have to handle the noise without senior starting center Nick Polino. I think that along with the spotlight of playing a weekday game on ESPN and we see a little bit of the true freshmen mistakes come out.
That wasn’t the only big injury suffered for UNC. The Tar Heels lost starting corner Patrice Rene. That really makes it tough on the UNC secondary against Wake’s playmakers on the outside
I also think you can’t overlook the edge Wake Forest has not only with an extra day of rest, but also the fact that they had a much easier game last week. Give me the Demon Deacons -3.
|09-12-19||Bucs v. Panthers -6.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-110||45 h 12 m||Show|
50* NFL BUCS/PANTHERS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Panthers -6.5)
I know this might seem like a big number, but I would still take my chances with the home team laying less than a touchdown on Thursday Night Football. There’s such a huge advantage, even this early in the season, for the team that gets to host these games on just 3 days of rest.
I also just feel like the Panthers are the better team and there might be some overreaction to them losing at home to the Rams. More so with how the offense struggled to get anything going. Los Angeles has a pretty darn good defense.
I also am not reading too much into the Bucs strong defensive showing against the 49ers. San Francisco was really sloppy on offense and left a lot of points out there. Defense is also the unit that seems to have the most problems with playing up to their potential in these Thursday games.
While I’m not a huge Cam Newton fan, especially if he doesn’t run as much, I like him a lot more than Winston. He just isn’t good under pressure and Carolina has a really strong defensive front. Panthers did a really good job of limiting Jared Goff and the Rams passing attack. Goff had just 186 yards on 39 attempts (4.8 yards/attempt). I could see this spiraling out of control for TB if they fall behind and have to throw the ball a lot.
Panthers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 home games after giving up 30 or more points in their previous game. Bucs on the other hand have gone just 1-5 ATS last 6 after giving up 30 or more and are 0-5 ATS last 5 games played on Thursday. Give me the Panthers -6.5.
|09-09-19||Texans v. Saints OVER 52||Top||28-30||Win||100||9 h 45 m||Show|
50* NFL SAINTS/TEXANS MNF SHARP TOP PLAY (Over 52)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 52 in this one. This thing has shootout written all over it. Houston's defense won't be as strong without Clowney and there's just no slowing down Drew Brees and that Saints offense at home. Keep in mind Texans ranked 28th against the pass last year and got a lot of new faces on that side of the ball. Even bigger thing here is I think Houston's offense will be potent in 2019. DeShaun Watson quietly had a great 2018 season and that was behind an awful offensive line. In losing Clowney they got a big upgrade in left tackle Laremy Tunsil. They used a 1st and 2nd round pick on offensive linemen. Saints defense ranked 29th vs the pass last year. Give me the OVER 52!
|09-08-19||Steelers +6 v. Patriots||3-33||Loss||-120||22 h 14 m||Show|
40* STEELERS/PAT SNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Steelers +6)
I'll take my chances here with the Steelers to cover the 6 at New England. Note that I like this before the Pats added Antonio Brown. I like it even more after the news. The fact that Belichick and Brady got Brown has to absolutely piss off the Steelers. Keep in mind they blocked a trade with NE because they didn't want him to go a rival. I think it's a bit of a distraction for NE and more than anything, I like the talent the Steelers have on both sides of the ball. Give me Pittsburgh +6!
|09-08-19||49ers +1.5 v. Bucs||31-17||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (49ers +1.5)
I'll take my chances here with the 49ers at basically a pick'em at Tampa Bay. I really like Bruce Arians, but I'm not convinced he's going to have Tampa into a serious NFC contender in his first season. I don't trust Jameis Winston in the slightest with his decision making. As for the 49ers, this is a team that I think is a lot better than people realize. Jimmy G is a franchise QB and they got all kinds of first round talent on that defensive front. I think SF will be living in the Bucs backfield and could turn this into a blowout. Give me the 49ers +1.5!
|09-08-19||Lions v. Cardinals +3||Top||27-27||Win||100||18 h 19 m||Show|
50* NFL WEEK 1 SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Cardinals +3)
I'll take my chances here with Arizona. I'm fully on board the Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray bandwagon. I think Arizona's offense is going to have a similar jump in production to when McVay took over that awful Rams offense a couple years back. As for the defense, they are better on that side than people realize. I absolutely loved the addition of linebacker Terrell Suggs. He's still a top tier player in this league, but it's his leadership that will really help the other guys on defense. Give me the Cardinals +3!
|09-08-19||Chiefs -3 v. Jaguars||Top||40-26||Win||100||15 h 58 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/JAGS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Chiefs -3)
I'll gladly back the Chiefs at -3 on the road against the Jags. It will be hard for me to not take KC laying less than a touchdown this season. I just think this is the best team in the league and that's factoring in AB going to NE. There's no stopping this Chiefs offense unless they get ravaged by injuries. I think the big thing holding people back is their defense was really bad last year. I think it's going to be really improved, especially against the run, which is what the Jags want to do offensively. GIve me the Chiefs -3!
|09-08-19||Titans v. Browns -5.5||43-13||Loss||-105||15 h 56 m||Show|
40* TITANS/BROWNS ATS BOOKIE SLAUGHTER (Browns -5.5)
I'll take my chances here with Cleveland winning by at least 6 at home against the Titans. I don't think this is going to be close at all. I get the Browns are getting a ton of hype, but for good reason. Tennessee just doesn't impress me that much and that offense looked horrific in the preseason. I don't see them coming out and lighting up this Browns defense, which I think is better than people realize. Give me the Browns -5.5!
|09-07-19||Miami-FL -5 v. North Carolina||Top||25-28||Loss||-104||26 h 44 m||Show|
50* NCAAF PRIME TIME ACC GAME OF THE YEAR (Miami -5)
I'll take my chances here with Miami winning by at least a TD. I think we are getting exceptional value here with the Hurricanes. Miami had No. 8 Florida on the ropes in Week 0. This team wasn't ranked coming into the year and won't be after that loss, but I strongly believe they are a Top 25 team.
I like what I saw from Jarren Williams at QB and the defense is going to be really good again. They forced the Gators into 4 turnovers. I like this team to bounce back in a big way against a North Carolina team that I think is getting too much respect after their upset of South Carolina. I was on the Tar Heels in that win, so I wasn't surprised by them winning that game. They really shouldn't have. They were down 11 going into the 4th quarter. I think the Canes roll. Give me Miami -5!
|09-07-19||Tulane +17.5 v. Auburn||6-24||Loss||-110||25 h 7 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS KNOCKOUT (Tulane +17.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Mean Green surprising a lot of people and keeping it closer than expected. I say surprise because I see close to 75% action on the Tigers in this one. Auburn had a great come from behind win in Week 1 over Oregon, but are now primed for a letdown after playing in arguably the biggest game of the week.
Everyone is singing the praises of Auburn freshman quarterback Bo Nix for his game-winning TD throw. It was a great throw. However, I'm more focused on the overall product and I think it was so-so. Nix only completed 42% (13-31) of his passes, had just 177 yards and threw 2 picks.
Tulane is a team to watch out for. Willie Fritz has done a tremendous job building up this program. They are now in year 4 and have all the key pieces to be a successful team. I couldn't have been more impressed with how they manhandled a Butch Davis coached FIU team in Week 1. They made the Panthers look like a JV team. This is their chance to shine and I think they catch the Tigers sleeping. Give me Tulane +17.5!
|09-07-19||Western Kentucky v. Florida International -7.5||Top||20-14||Loss||-114||24 h 30 m||Show|
50* NCAAF CONF-USA GAME OF THE MONTH (FIU -7.5)
I'll take my chances here with FIU winning by at least 8 at home against Western Kentucky. I was on the Panthers in their lopsided loss at Tulane and I clearly underestimated Willie Fritz's team. That loss isn't going to keep me from backing this team in this spot and I actually think we are getting value because of how bad they looked.
FIU should be a much improved team this year. They got 16 returning starters from a 9-win team. They got a good experienced senior QB in James Morgan and a legit head coach in Butch Davis. This team beat WKU 38-17 on the road last year and the Hilltoppers don't look all that improved from their 3-win campaign, as they just lost at home to Central Arkansas. Give me FIU -7.5!
|09-07-19||South Florida +6.5 v. Georgia Tech||10-14||Win||100||19 h 28 m||Show|
40* NCAAF ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (South Florida +6.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Bulls covering on the 6.5 at Georgia Tech. I'm actually shocked the Yellow Jackets are favored by this much. I get the USF loss to Wisconsin looks bad given the Bulls didn't score, but there's no doubt USF is better than that on the offensive side of the ball. They were just beat up in the trenches by a bigger Badgers team.
Georgia Tech got rolled 52-14 at Clemson in Week 1 and that was with Trevor Lawrence not playing great. I also think the Tigers were holding back a lot in that game with Texas A&M on deck. That says a lot that it was that lopsided.
More than anything here, there's every reason to think the Yellow Jackets are going to suck this year. They got bunch of players they recruited to play the option trying to learn and operate a pro-style offense. I not only think the Bulls cover, but win outright. Keep in mind USF beat Georgia Tech last year. Give me the Bulls +6.5!
|09-07-19||West Virginia v. Missouri -13.5||Top||7-38||Win||100||18 h 18 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Missouri -13.5)
I'll take my chances here with Missouri bouncing back from that embarrassing Week 1 loss at Wyoming with a big win over West Virginia. Wyoming is a very well-coached team under Craig Bohl and I think Missouri went in thinking it was going to be an easy win.
The good news is the offense looked good in the first game behind Clemson transfer quarterback Kelly Bryant. He went 31 of 48 for 423 yards and 2 scores. This team is going to put up points. I think they could light it up on the Mountaineers.
West Virginia went into the 4th quarter tied 10-10 at home against FCS foe James Madison. People assume KU is the worst in the Big 12, but with Dana Holgorsen leaving and Les Miles joining the Jayhawks, that role may be reversed. The offense could only muster 294 yards and had a mere 34 rushing yards on 24 attempts (1.4 yards/carry). I think the Tigers have this covered by half and coast to a 20-point win. Give me Missouri -13.5!
|09-07-19||Syracuse v. Maryland -1.5||20-63||Win||100||18 h 17 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SHOCKER (Maryland -1.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Terps as a small home favorite against nationally ranked Syracuse. Any time you see a ranked team getting points against an unranked opponent, it's a pretty good indication the books are on to something. Since 2015 there have been 23 times in the regular-season that a team ranked 20th or lower was a dog against an unranked opponent. Those teams are a miserable 4-19 SU. That includes a mere 1-5 mark in the 6 times this came up last year.
Regardless of ranked vs unranked, I would like Maryland laying less than a field goal in this one. Terps are an afterthought playing in the same division as Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State. This team is more talented than their record suggest. Big thing that's been holding them back is consistent QB play. I think they will finally get that with Va Tech transfer Justin Jackson.
I'm also not a big Syracuse believer. I think this team isn't as good as people think, especially this year without Eric Dungey at quarterback. Defense isn't great and I think we could see the Terps roll. Give me Maryland -1.5!
|09-07-19||Vanderbilt v. Purdue OVER 55||24-42||Win||100||18 h 54 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Over 55)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 55. While the Boilermakers are coming off a crushing loss to Nevada, the loss was more on the defense. Purdue had over 500 yards of total offense and were throwing the football all over the place. Not to mention they were playing with even more pace than last year.
Vanderbilt wants to play faster and have some serious weapons at the skill positions. The Commodores couldn't get anything going against an elite Georgia defense, but should be able to put up plenty of points in this one. This total should be closer to 60 and I wouldn't be shocked if the two combined for 70. Give me the OVER 55!
|09-06-19||Marshall v. Boise State OVER 56.5||Top||7-14||Loss||-110||10 h 28 m||Show|
50* NCAAF FRIDAY NIGHT OVER/UNDER KNOCKOUT (Over 56.5)
I'll gladly take my chances with the oVER 56.6 in Friday's matchup between Marshall and Boise State. Two talented young quarterbacks will be guiding the two offenses in this one. Thundering Herd send out sophomore Isaiah Green, who was the C-USA Freshman Player of the Year in 2018. Green is expected to make a big jump this year and just set a new career-high with 4 TD passes in their Week 1 win. Boise State has true freshman Hank Bachmeier looking to build on quite the first start. Bachmeier threw for 407 yards in a win at Florida State. The most impressive thing is they trusted him enough to let him air it out 51 times. Boise as a team ran 108 plays. I think there will be a lot of big plays in the passing game and for this to easily hit 60. Give me the OVER 56.5!
|09-05-19||Packers v. Bears -3||Top||10-3||Loss||-110||261 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL PACKERS/BEARS NFC NORTH PLAY OF THE YEAR (Bears -3)
I just think this is too good a price to pass up with the Bears at home. There’s a lot of really good teams in the NFC, but you could definitely make an argument for the Bears to be the team to beat.
I think Green Bay can sometimes get classed in the upper-tier of the NFC when they shouldn’t and that’s just simply the respect people have for Aaron Rodgers. As long as he’s healthy this team will be a contender, but winning on the road against a team like Chicago in a prime time game is asking a lot.
I get a change needed to be made, I’m just not convinced LaFleur is the answer. I mean it took this guy 3/4 the season last year to figure out that the Titans should be running their offense thru Derrick Henry. There’s also already some rumblings that LaFleur and Rodgers aren’t quite on the same page.
I also think Green Bay has done a poor job both with the offensive line and getting in the type of playmakers that can make a difference. People forget how much better Rodgers makes receivers look than they actually are. I just don’t see this offense being able to sustain drives against this Bears defense.
On the flip side of this, Green Bay’s defense doesn’t exactly wow you on paper. Packers ranked 18th in total defense and 22nd in scoring defense last year. Bears offense is better than it gets credit for. Keep in mind they installed a whole new offense just last year when they hired Nagy to be their head coach. They should be a lot more familiar with the offense and that should lead to better results. Give me the Bears -3.
|09-02-19||Notre Dame -18 v. Louisville||Top||35-17||Push||0||9 h 10 m||Show|
50* NOTRE DAME/LOUISVILLE LABOR DAY ATS MASSACRE (Notre Dame -18)
I'll take my chances here with the Fighting Irish winning by at least 20. I'm not sure why, but this Irish team is not getting near the love you would expect for a Notre Dame team that returns a lot from a team that just ran the table ni the regular-season.
They did get rolled by Clemson in the semi's, which I think had some wondering if they deserved a playoff bid. If you feel that way about the Irish, Alabama lost just as bad to the Tigers and they definitely deserved to be there.
Ian Book is a legit quarterback and while Louisville's defense will be improved, they gave up 44.1 ppg and 484 ypg last year. I just don't know that the talent is there for a quick turnaround. A lot of people like new head coach Scott Satterfield from App St. He's good, but keep in mind he went 4-8 in his first year with the Mountaineers (47-16 after).
I think the Cardinals will find themselves behind early and I just don't trust Jawon Pass to keep them in it. He only completed 54% of his attempts last year with a 8-12 TD-INT ratio, plus he's being forced to learn a whole new offenes. Give me Notre Dame -18!
|09-01-19||Houston v. Oklahoma -22.5||Top||31-49||Loss||-110||9 h 33 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Oklahoma -22.5)
Oklahoma has started out strong under Riley. In 2017 they put up 56 and covered as 43-point favorites in the opener over UTEP and Week 2 beat Ohio State 31-16 as a 7-point dog.
Last year a lot of people thought FAU had a shot of going into Norman and winning. People couldn’t help themselves but back the Owls at +20. Oklahoma led 56-0 in the 3rd quarter before calling off the dogs and wrapping up a 63-14 win.
I think people are getting a little too caught up in comparing Hurts to both Mayfield and Murray. Will Hurts put up the passing numbers of those two? Probably not. The thing is, he’ll make up for it with his legs. I think because he was so bad in that 1st half against Georgia in the 2017 title game, people just don’t give him the respect he deserves. Guy got beat out by a future top NFL draft pick.
If anyone can make him great, it’s Riley and since he took over in 2015, Oklahoma has not averaged fewer than 43.5 ppg and 530 ypg (both of those in his first season with program).
I just rambled on about the offense, which is all everyone is talking about, but the real reason to be excited about the Sooners is the addition of defensive coordinator Alex Grinch. If this team had any kind of defense the last two year, they probably win it all.
Grinch was the DC at Ohio State last year and at Washington State the 3 years prior. I think the public perception is that the Buckeyes underperformed defensively last year, but they only 5 starters back, there was outside drama and I just don’t know that the kids were 100% invested.
I look more at what Grinch was able to do at Washington State. He took over a defense that had 6 starters back from a unit that allowed 38.6 ppg and got them down to 27.7. They continued to improve each year and when he left they were giving up 25.8 ppg and 323 ypg. Oklahoma has 8 starters back and will be greatly improved on that side. I could definitely see them giving King struggles.
Houston’s defense only brings back 4 starters and lose a ton of talent. They are also learning a new scheme on that side of the ball. Hurts and the Sooners will score at will. Give me Oklahoma -22.5!
|08-31-19||Fresno State v. USC -13.5||Top||23-31||Loss||-106||28 h 32 m||Show|
50* NCAAF NON-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH (USC -13.5)
I just think the books are giving Fresno State way too much respect here. At the same, this is the least hyped Trojans team that I can remember (all the Pac-12 hype is centered around Washington, Oregon and Utah).
Sometimes you gotta hit a bit of a rough patch to motivate you to greatness. I’m hoping some of that takes place at USC this year. Not making a bowl with the talent they had, had to be extremely humbling. I think it’s going to have the Trojans playing with a chip on their shoulder in 2019.
Even with a revenge game on deck against Stanford, I expect USC to be 100% locked in on not just beating Fresno State, but sending a message to everyone that they are going to be a player in the Pac-12 this year.
I really think we are going to see J.T. Daniels develop into a star this year. He definitely flashed that “it” factor you love to see in his first year, but he also looked a bit lost. I think he’s going to be a different dude and the hire of Harrell only furthers my confidence in him in 2019.
Harrell did a tremendous job developing Mason Fine in his 3 years as the OC at North Texas. Fine went from completing 59% with a 6-5 TD-INT ratio as a true freshmen (also Harrell’s first year), to completing 63% with 31-15 ratio as a sophomore and 65% with a 27-5 TD-INT ratio as a junior. Fine is already the Mean Green all-time leading passer. In his first year as OC at North Texas, Mean Green improved by 9.6 ppg and in year two he improved by another 10.7 ppg (from 15.2 ppg to 35.5 ppg).
I just don’t see Fresno State being able to keep pace offensively in this one. I don’t have the same excitement over the Bulldogs new OC in Ryan Grubb, who got promoted after being the o-line coach the last two years. You also have a first year starter in senior Jorge Reyna who has only played in limited garbage time and will be working behind an offensive line that lost 4 starters. Not to mention the loss of star wide out KeeSean Johnson, who had 95 catches for 1,340 yards and 8 scores. Give me USC -13.5!
|08-31-19||Virginia Tech -4 v. Boston College||28-35||Loss||-110||21 h 51 m||Show|
40* NCAAF AFTERNOON ATS NO-BRAINER (Va Tech -4)
I just feel like that the Hokies are the more complete team and are flying a bit under the radar to start out 2019. You can see how much respect the books have for this team, given they were a 2-point home dog to the Eagles at the end of last year and are now laying points on the roads.
I get the excitement around the BC offense with all their playmakers back, but you never really know how it’s going to go when you change up the offense. Bajakian was a quarterback coach the last 4 years in the NFL (Bucs). He did serve as the OC at Tennessee in 2013 and 2014. However, the offense regressed by 12.4 ppg (36.2 ppg to 23.8 ppg) in his first year and got better by 6.3 ppg when he left (28.9 ppg to 35.2 ppg).
Needless to say, I’m not convinced the Eagles offense is going to be humming along to start the year. I also think they are matched up here against a talented and hungry Hokies defense that will be out to make a statement.
I also feel like Boston College’s defense is headed in the wrong direction. Eagles only return 3 starters from a unit that gave up over 400 ypg for the first time in 5 years. It’s been a decline every year in yards allowed since the great Don Brown left to be the DC at Michigan in 2015.
That first road game in conference play can be a challenge for a lot of teams, but Virginia Tech has thrived in this spot. Hokies are 13-2 in their last 15 ACC road openers. That includes a 24-3 win at Florida State to open last year. Va Tech easily covered as a 7-point dog. I think they win here by 10+ rather easily. Give me the Hokies -4!
|08-31-19||South Carolina v. North Carolina +11.5||20-24||Win||100||20 h 20 m||Show|
40* NCAAF BLOCKBUSTER ATS BLOWOUT (UNC +11.5)
I just think the perception for most people when they look at North Carolina is that 2019 will be a rebuild and Brown will have them back to being a competitive force in 2020. I also think the public will see an SEC team against a middle of the pack ACC team and see an side with the SEC.
I look at these two teams and it wouldn’t surprise me at all if North Carolina won this game. No disrespect to South Carolina, but I just think the Tar heels are in a much better spot than people realize.
You never know what you are going to get out of a true freshman quarterback until you see them play, but there’s reason to be optimistic that Sam Howell (first ever true freshmen to start opener at UNC) will perform at a high level. The most obvious answer is his talent. Had Jimbo Fisher not left FSU, he probably would be enrolled in Tallahassee. The kid set the North Carolina high school record for passing yards.
Second, he’s not going to have to do it all. They got a decent 0-line with a future NFL left tackle in Charlie Heck. One that will be blocking for a trio of players at running back in Michael Carter, Antonio Williams and Javonte Brown.
Third, he’s got a bright offensive minded coordinator in Phil Longo, who made a name for himself with his up-tempo attack at Sam Houston State and spent the last two years guiding a potent Ole Miss attack. Rebels averaged 33.9 ppg and 511 ypg with him calling the shots in 2018.
Lastly, the Gamecocks are at a bit of a disadvantage in terms of they don’t know really what to prepare for. South Carolina on the other hand has returning coordinators, so they will be running a lot of the same stuff on both sides.
I also want to point out that I like South Carolina quarterback Bentley. I just think that offense is going to really miss the playmaking ability of Deebo Samuel . Keep in mind this team ranked T-107th in the entire FBS with a mere 15 rushing touchdowns last year. I’d much rather back the Gamecocks as an underdog. Give me the Tar Heels +11.5!
|08-31-19||Boise State v. Florida State -6.5||Top||36-31||Loss||-107||17 h 50 m||Show|
50* NCAAF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (FSU -6.5)
I think people are sleeping big time on Florida State. I get that Taggart isn’t on the same level as Fisher. There are still a ton of 4 and 5 star players on this roster. I also think there’s a lot of pride in Tallahassee. The players had to be embarrassed to not get to a bowl game. I have to believe it resulted in quite the chip on their shoulder. They have something to prove and will be out to send a message here.
The offense really is what kept this team from getting to a bowl. The defense actually played pretty good early on, but eventually wore down in the second half. Part of that was Deondre Francois and his lack of accuracy and poor judgement.
He’s gone and Blackmon is a kid that started 12 games as a true freshman in 2017. While last year was technically a red-shirt for Blackmon, he played in 4 and in his lone start threw for 421 yards against a NC State defense that only gave up 24.9 ppg in 2018.
On top of that, the offense is getting a massive boost here with new offensive coordinator Kendal Briles. Let me explain my excitement with Briles. He was the OC at Baylor in 2015 (48.1 ppg, 616 ypg) and 2016 (34.6 ppg, 523 ypg). In 2017 he was the OC at FAU and they put up 40.6 ppg and 498 ypg. The previous year they averaged 26.4 ppg and 398 ypg. Last year he was the OC at Houston. The Cougars averaged 43.9 ypg and 513 ypg after only averaging 28.3 ppg and 428 ypg the previous season.
Nothing is guaranteed in this world, but it would be foolish to not think this offense will be drastically improved given the talent Briles has to work with. The scary thing is the defense could be just as good as the offense. Every year there’s a team that isn’t ranked that ends up in the Top 10. Florida State would be my pick in 2019.
All of this and I haven’t even got to the fact that Boise State will be starting a true freshman. He could be great. You never know. However, chances are he will struggle in his first collegiate game against this kind of talent. Keep in mind the Broncos also lost leading rusher Alex Mattison (1,415 yards, 17 TDs) as well as their top two wide outs in Sean Modster and A.J. Richardson (122 catches, 1,803 yards, 16 TDs). Give me the Seminoles -6.5!
|08-31-19||Ole Miss +5 v. Memphis||10-15||Push||0||17 h 48 m||Show|
40* NCAAF EARLY BIRD ATS SHOCKER (Ole Miss +5)
I understand why Memphis is getting so much love in this matchup, but I also think they got no business laying almost a touchdown against a SEC team, especially a team that has the talent that Ole Miss has.
I get it was on the road, but I can’t get past the whooping Memphis took in a road game at Missouri last year. They lost by a final of 65-33 as a 9-point dog. Note that given that line, that means the Tigers would have been around a 3-point dog at home to Missouri last year.
I think a big reason that Memphis is favored like they are is the talent they got at quarterback in Brady White. He put up fantastic numbers last year. However, the Tigers offense does lose an elite playmaker in running back Darrell Henderson, who rushed for 1,909 yards and 22 touchdowns. They also lose three multi-year starters on the offensive line.
I also think people are sleeping on Ole Miss red-shirt freshman quarterback Matt Corral. He actually got in 4 games as true freshman, none more impressive than his mop up duty against ULM, when he went 10 for 10, throwing for 143 yards and 2 scores.
I get he loses a ton of talent at wide receiver, but they have been recruiting extremely well at the position for years now. They might be a bit raw, but there are some real playmakers in the group. Ole Miss also has a ton of talent back at running back.
I don’t see Memphis being able to slow this offense down. On the flip side of things, I’m excited to see what MacIntyre can do with all that returning talent on defense.
Luke has already made it public that the Rebels are playing with a chip on their shoulder and you can bet he’s brought up the fact his team is an underdog against a non-power 5 opponent multiple times in fall practice. I love teams who I think have more talent that have something to prove. Give me the Rebels +5!
|08-30-19||Oklahoma State v. Oregon State OVER 74||52-36||Win||100||95 h 29 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL DESTROYER (Oregon St/Oklahoma St OVER 74)
I was originally going to lay the points with Oklahoma State, but there's just something about a game in Corvallis that scares me. However, I'm not concerned with the Cowboys ability to score points with whoever ends up playing QB.
Gundy is a QB guru and he just added in Sean Gleeson from Princeton to be his OC. Gleeson did some pretty innovative stuff with Princeton and he's got a ton of playmakers at his disposal. None better than junior wide out Tylan Wallace.
Oregon State has 9 guys back on defense, but that doesn't mean as much when it's from a unit that gave up 45.7 ppg and 537 ypg. Opposing QB's completed 64% of their attempts against the Beavers secondary in 2018.
Oregon State gave up 40 or more in 7 of their 12 games last year, including 77 in the opener to Ohio State.
Key here is that while OK State is primed to put up a big number, I think the Beavers will do their part offensively behind senior QB Jake Luton and some talented skill players. Also, Cowboys only have 5 starters back on a defense that wasn't great in 2018. Give me the OVER 74!
|08-30-19||Utah State v. Wake Forest -165||Top||35-38||Win||100||93 h 15 m||Show|
50* NCAAF OPENING WEEK GAME OF THE YEAR (Wake Forest -165)
Two of my favorite win total plays this year involve these two teams and that's the Demon Deacons OVER 6 and the Aggies UNDER 6.5.
The biggest thing for me with the Aggies is I feel like people are just assuming that because they hired Gary Anderson it’s going to be a smooth transition. I like Anderson, but the guy has been gone for 6 years.
As is often the case, a new head coach often means new schemes on both sides of the ball. You got Mike Sanford taking over the offense and Justin Ena now in charge of the defense. I think that transition is a lot tougher when you don’t have experience and this is one of the least experienced teams at the FBS level.
The combination of Anderson being a name people know, getting Love back at QB and just how good this team was in 2018, has them way overvalued in this matchup.
The thing with Wake Forest is that this is not a program you can expect a guy to come in and turn things around in the blink of an eye. They have done a tremendous job of letting Clawson build this thing up from scratch.
We have really seen the offense take off the last two years. In Clawson’s first year they average 14.8 ppg and 216 ypg. One of the worst offenses in the country. Last year they had 32.8 ppg and 450 ypg.
They 7 starters back on offense and I just don’t see Utah State being able to keep pace offensively in what is going to be a hostile environment at BB&T Field. Give me the Demon Deacons on the money line -165!
|08-30-19||Wisconsin -12 v. South Florida||49-0||Win||100||92 h 9 m||Show|
40* NCAAF WISCONSIN/USF MONEY MAKER (Wisconsin -12)
I just think people are sleeping on this Wisconsin team in 2019. Everyone is on the Nebraska bandwagon and several also have Iowa pegged ahead of them in the West (beat Iowa 28-17 on the road and Nebraska 41-24 at home before injuries derailed their season last year).
I think the biggest thing that scares people and what’s keeping the number lower than it should be is the uncertainty at quarterback for the Badgers. No one has been named the starter, but from what I’m reading, junior Jack Coan is the guy. Coan played in 6 and started 4 last year. Word is he’s a lot stronger and has more zip on the ball.
I’m not going to say the quarterback position isn’t important. It is. I just think it doesn’t matter as much with a predominant running team like Wisconsin. They have won a lot of games with pretty average QB play.
Speaking of the run game, the Badgers welcome back one of the best in the country in junior Jonathan Taylor. The lack of hype this kid is getting going into 2019 is crazy. After rushing for 1,977 yards as a true freshmen, he put up 2,194 yards as a sophomore. That’s 4,171 yards in his first two seasons. Melvin Gordon is 3rd all-time at Wisconsin with 4,915 yards and he played 4 years.
South Florida gave up 248 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry last year. They had 4 different games where they allowed 320+ yards. They only got 6 starters back on defense and have to replace two of their top 3 tacklers.
Wisconsin’s defense was as bad as it has been in a long time in 2018, which is crazy cause they gave up a mere 22.6 ppg and 344 ypg. Injuries were a big part of that. I expect them to return to form and while USF has some talent on offense, they are going to have a hard time moving the ball in this game.
Lastly, I don’t really trust Charlie Strong. He got a lot of praise for going 10-2 in his first year on the job, but those were Willie Taggert’s kids. He inherited 16 starters from a team that won 11-games the previous season. Give me Wisconsin -12!
|08-29-19||Kent State v. Arizona State OVER 59.5||7-30||Loss||-120||71 h 21 m||Show|
40* NCAAF OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 59.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 59.5. When I first looked at this game I considered laying the 25 points with ASU and would probably still lean that way. However, I feel there's a lot more value here with the OVER, as we simply need 60 points to reach our mark.
Arizona State was way better than expected in year one under Herm Edwards and they did that with a pretty mediocre offense (29.9 ppg). I think they are closer to 35 ppg in 2019 and should score a ton against a Kent State defense that is outmatched. I'm really excited to see freshmen quarterback Jayden Daniels, who should thrive with how much defenses will have to respect the run with Eno Benjamin back (1,642 yards, 16 touchdowns).
The even bigger key here is the tempo "FlashFAST" in which Kent State second year head coach Sean Lewis is looking to play at. He's a former OC under Dino Babers and their uptempo offense at Syracuse. Last year he got a Kent State offense that returned just 6 starters from a team that averaged 12.8 ppg and got them 23.9 ppg with more than 100 yards/game improvement. They got 9 starters back, including one of the better QBs in the MAC in Woody Barrett. I think this is going to be a much better offense than anyone anticipates. Give me the OVER 59.5!
|08-29-19||Florida International +2 v. Tulane||14-42||Loss||-107||69 h 29 m||Show|
40* NCAAF FIU/TULANE ATS KNOCKOUT (FIU +2)
I'll take my chances here with FIU as a small road dog against Tulane. I expect a lot of people to be on the Green Wave as a small home favorite. Tulane is viewed as a team on the rise and many feel like this will be their best team under head coach Willie Fritz.
I'm not arguing that, but I think Tulane isn't quite where people think. Keep in mind they had to convert a 2-point conversion in the final game of the season against Navy to just make a bowl and the Midshipmen were 1-9 to close out 2018. Factor in a couple more wins over 3-9 teams in Tulsa and East Carolina and that 7-6 record don't look so great.
The bigger thing here is I love Butch Davis and think he's taking FIU to the next level. Last year the Panthers had just 11 starters back and were suppose to regressing from their 8-5 record in 2017. They instead went 9-4 with two of their losses to Indiana and @ Miami (covered both).
Last year's team put up 34.6 ppg and 422 ypg. They got 8 starters back on offense, including senior QB in James Morgan. They also got 8 back on defense. I feel FIU has the better coach, better QB and is just as talented across the board. Give me the Panthers +2!
|08-29-19||UCLA +3 v. Cincinnati||Top||14-24||Loss||-115||69 h 45 m||Show|
50* UCLA/CINC NCAAF VEGAS INSIDER TOP PLAY (UCLA +3)
The Bruins OVER 5.5 is one of my favorite win total bets this year and I think they win this game outright. I hate passing up points when I’m getting at least a field goal, but I’ll probably play the money line as well.
No disrespect to Cincinnati, who I feel is one of the better ‘Group of 5’ teams out there, I think UCLA is going to be light years ahead of where they were a season ago. The Bruins didn’t have to just learn a completely new offense last year, they had to learn how to play fast. The up-tempo style of play worked wonders for Chip Kelly at Oregon and there’s more than enough talent here.
I also love the revenge angle here and with that just how these two teams are coming into this season. UCLA is coming into this season with a chip on their shoulder. Cincinnati on the other hand has to be feeling themselves and I don’t know if they are going to give the Bruins the respect they should.
This is what we call a measuring stick game. What better way to prove that you are a better team than beat the team that knocked you off in the opener last year.
Let’s also not forget that was a 17-17 game going into the 4th quarter. The total yards were almost identical at the end of the game (304 to 306). I think UCLA is going to be better in ever aspect of the game than they were in last year’s contest and for Cincinnati they don’t have near the talent on the defensive side of the ball as they did a year ago. Give me the Bearcats +3!
|08-24-19||Florida v. Miami-FL UNDER 47||Top||24-20||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
50* MIAMI/FLORIDA NCAAF WEEK ZERO TOP PLAY (Under 47)
If I had to take a side, I would grab the points with the Hurricanes, but I feel the better value is with the UNDER 47 on the total.
Miami has without a doubt one of the best front seven’s in college football. They got 3 potential NFL linebackers who all turned down the NFL to return for their senior season. This defense led the country last year in tackles for loss.
One of the things that gets overlooked by the public when they look at the early season matchups is the talent returning/lost along the offensive line. Last year Florida had all 5 starters back on the offensive line. It’s a big reason why they had such a strong running back and Feleipe Franks was able to make a big jump. This year only one starter is back and I just don’t see them being able to handle that front of the Hurricanes.
It’s a very similar story on the other side of the ball. Florida has so much talent on the defensive side of the ball and should have one of the best defensive lines in the country. Defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is one of those guys that it really doesn’t matter the talent, he’s going to field a top tier defense. He’s got 8 starters back on that side of the ball.
Miami loses 3 starters on the offensive line, don’t have near the same talent at running back as they did a season ago and will be starting red-shirt freshman Jarren Williams at quarterback. Williams surprised everyone by beating out returning sophomore N’Kosi Pery and Ohio State transfer Tate Martell.
Not only will it be difficult for both teams to move the ball, you have to think that if/when they do get in the redzone they will have to end up settling for field goals.
UNDER is 20-7 in the Gators last 27 matchups with a team from the ACC and 7-1 in the Hurricanes last 8 neutral site contests. Give me the UNDER 47!
|02-03-19||Patriots v. Rams +3||Top||13-3||Loss||-110||53 h 36 m||Show|
50* SUPER BOWL 53 VEGAS TOP PLAY (Rams +3)
I just think because of the Patriots track record we are seeing people do a complete 180 with this team. A lot of people were on the Chiefs to take down the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. I think those same people who bet against New England are backing the Patriots this time around.
It certainly seems to be that way based on the early numbers, as I'm showing close to 65% of the action coming in on New England. If I've learned anything, you don't want to be on that popular side for the big game. In fact, the underdog has covered the Super Bowl in 8 of the last 10. Two of the favorites to cover were the Patriots, but both were a bit lucky. New England won 28-24 back in Super Bowl 49 over Seattle on that interception on the goal line. The other was that crazy comeback against the Falcons in Super Bowl 51, where they covered as a 3-point favorite in overtime.
In terms of experience and long-term accomplishments, the edge goes to the Patriots, but as far as this game is concerned, I think the Rams are the better team. Keep in mind we have seen two young offensive minded guys really give New England trouble the last two Super Bowls. Two years ago it was Falcons offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan and last year it was Doug Pederson with the Eagles. This time it's Sean McVay of the Rams, who I think is the cream of the crop right now in terms of a young offensive minded coaches in the NFL.
I think McVay is going to learn a lot with how New England tried to slow down the Chiefs offense and will focus on the adjustments that Kansas City made in the 2nd half. I just feel really confident that the Rams will be able to score.
What makes me really like Los Angeles is their defense. Most notably their dynamic defensive tackle duo of Aaron Donald and Ndamukong Suh. As we saw with the Chiefs, having great outside pass rushers doesn't do ya whole lot against Brady and that dink and dunk Patriots offense. To disrupt that offense you need to be able to bring pressure up the middle. I think they do just that and will make enough plays to get the win. Give me the Rams +3!
|01-20-19||Patriots v. Chiefs -3||Top||37-31||Loss||-110||50 h 18 m||Show|
50* CHIEFS/PATRIOTS AFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Chiefs -3)
I just think this one comes down to homefield advantage. There’s not a tougher place to play in the NFL, especially in a game of this magnitude, than Arrowhead Stadium.
The noise and energy that the fans provide this Chiefs team at home is undeniable. All you have to do is watch how the Chiefs defense played at home compared to on the road. It’s hard to believe it’s even the same team. They didn’t just hold serve against Andrew Luck and the Colts, they completely shutdown Indianapolis’ offense.
I get it’s a little different going up against the likes of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, but the Patriots don’t exactly have the greatest track record on the road. While New England is headed to a ridiculous 8th straight AFC Championship Game, they have only played two of the previous seven on the road and lost both. Patriots are just 3-4 in playoff road games under Brady and haven’t won on the road since 2006.
It’s not just the outcome, but the play on the field. Brady has a 46 to 18 TD-INT ratio in home playoff games and 8-8 ratio on the road. Many of you might recall the last time Brady visited Arrowhead. It was a Monday Night Football game back in Week 4 of 2016, which the Chiefs won 41-14. Brady was just 14 of 23 for 159 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions.
On the flip side of this, I don’t think there’s any stopping Mahomes and this Chiefs offense, especially now that they got back wide out Sammy Watkins. It’s no secret that Belichick’s defense is all about taking away a team’s best player, but there’s simply too many weapons to account for and Mahomes has shown he will take whatever the defense gives him. Give me the Chiefs -3!
|01-20-19||Rams +3.5 v. Saints||Top||26-23||Win||100||47 h 42 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/RAMS NFC CHAMPIONSHIP TOP PLAY (Rams +3.5)
As difficult as it is to bet against the Saints at home, I just think the Rams are the more complete team and I trust their offense a lot more. I also think having already played in the Superdome earlier this season will work to their advantage.
Not to take anything away from the Saints defense and how well they played over the final 3 quarters of their Division Round win against the Eagles, but a lot of that was bad offense by the Eagles. It was like the confidence was zapped from Foles when he threw that early pick and he missed a lot of throws the rest of the way. It didn’t help that Philadelphia couldn’t run the ball. The Eagles attempted just 16 rushes and totaled a mere 49 yards.
I’m not about to sit here and say the Rams are going to run all over this Saints defense the same way they did last week against Dallas, but clearly this team has found something in the 1-2 punch of Gurley and Anderson.
On the flip side of this, I think the Rams defense is way better than they are getting credit for. LA didn’t have the best defensive numbers during the regular season, but I think part of that was a lack of focus, especially in all those games where they jumped out to big leads. A lot of people were talking about how the Rams gave up 5.1 yards/carry against the run and how Dallas would run all over them. The Cowboys ended up with 50 yards and 2.3 yards/carry.
If they can take away the running game, that really only leaves them needing to focus their attention on Michael Thomas. He had 12 of Brees’ 28 completions against the Eagles and more than half the yards (171) that he threw for. Stopping Thomas is easier said than done, but one guy the Rams didn’t have in that first meeting is Aqib Talib. LA’s secondary did a real good job of holding Amari Cooper to just 6 catches for 65 yards last week. Give me the Rams +3.5!
|01-13-19||Eagles +9.5 v. Saints||Top||14-20||Win||100||6 h 47 m||Show|
50* EAGLES/SAINTS NFL SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Eagles +9.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Eagles covering the spread in this one. The Saints starting out the season 9-2 ATS, including a streak of 9 straight covers. That run forced the books to inflate their lines and we saw them fail to cover their last 3. I mean they were laying over a touchdown in a meaningless Week 17 game with Brees sitting out for rest.
I'm not huge on teams that coast to the finish and there were some concerning signs with New Orleans down the stretch. Most notably that 3 game stretch where the offense went missing. I just think we could see them come out flat here having not played a meaningful game in more than 2 weeks.
As for the Eagles, they got the feel of one of those teams that is clicking at the right time and there's clearly something special going on with this team and backup quarterback Nick Foles. The biggest thing is how the defense is playing and I think they not only have a great shot at covering, but I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if they won this game outright. Give me the Eagles +9.5!
|01-12-19||Colts v. Chiefs -5||Top||13-31||Win||100||23 h 3 m||Show|
50* NFL DIVISIONAL ROUND PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -5)
I think because Kansas City kinda limped into the playoffs and their defense has been so bad over the course of the season, few are believing this team has what it takes to win it all. Last I checked the most important position on the field is the quarterback and in my opinion the Chiefs have the best signal caller in the postseason.
It’s not just Mahomes and what he brings to the table, this Kansas City offense is unlike anything we have seen before. The Chiefs eclipsed 25 points in every single game this season. KC has weapons littered all over the field and while the Colts defense has been playing great during their big run, I think they are going to struggle to slow this Chiefs offense down.
I’m also not solid on Indianapolis’ defense being as good as the numbers suggest. Don’t get me wrong, they are greatly improved on that side of the ball. However, during their 10-1 stretch, they haven’t played many top notch signal callers. The run includes games against Derek Anderson, Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Blaine Gabbert (twice), Ryan Tannehill, Cody Kessler, Deshaun Watson (twice), Dak Prescott and Eli Manning.
The other huge factor here is where the game is being played. Arrowhead Stadium is one of the toughest places in the NFL to play for opposing teams, especially in a game of this magnitude. The atmosphere is going to be electric in Kansas City and while this Chiefs offense is built to put up points no matter where the game is played, the defense really feeds off the energy of the stadium. I think because the overall numbers are so bad, people overlook just how drastically better KC’s defense is at home compared to on the road.
The other thing with the Chiefs is they have a top notch pass rush, which really makes it tough on opposing teams if they get behind. KC also is one of the better teams at getting off the field on 3rd down. The Chiefs win here comfortably. Give me Kansas City -5!
|01-07-19||Alabama v. Clemson +6||Top||16-44||Win||100||100 h 56 m||Show|
50* ALABAMA/CLEMSON NATIONAL CHAMP ATS WINNER (Clemson +6)
This is a pretty easy one for me, as I actually like the Tigers to win this game outright. I think Clemson has quietly been sitting there all season listening to everyone talk about how this Alabama team is the best team yet under Nick Saban and no one is getting in the way of them winning the title. I’m not about to say the Crimson Tide aren’t an elite team, I just think the Tigers are every bit as good and this line should be closer to a pick’em than a touchdown.
Both of these teams have elite young quarterbacks, who will be playing in the NFL before we know it, so for me it’s all about which defense I trust more to get off the field. I just think the edge has to Clemson on that side of the ball. Even with Dexter Lawrence likely unavailable, the Tigers still have three elite talents on their defensive line. While the guys up front get all the attention, and rightfully so, Clemson has some dudes in the secondary and I think they have the better defensive backs.
For me it just seems like Alabama gets these huge guys that are great at stopping the run, but aren’t the fastest in open space and struggle to play coverage. A big reason why I think a lot of linebackers who were stars at Alabama, have not had the greatest careers in the NFL. The biggest thing for me is how the Crimson Tide defense struggled in their last two games, giving up 301 passing yards to Georgia and 308 to Oklahoma. They also gave up 150+ rushing yards in both of those games.
Another thing for me is that while Tagovailoa put up great numbers against Oklahoma, I still don’t think he’s 100% and just doesn’t offer that scrambling presence that he did earlier in the season. He only rushed for 9 yards on 5 attempts against the Sooners. Not having that mobility against this Clemson defensive front could very well make all the difference in this game. Give me Clemson +6!
|01-06-19||Chargers v. Ravens -2.5||Top||23-17||Loss||-115||44 h 52 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/RAVENS WILD CARD SUNDAY TOP PLAY (Ravens -2.5)
I was on the Ravens in that Week 16 win and cover at Los Angeles and will gladly back Baltimore at less than a field goal at home. Given what we saw just a few weeks ago, I’m not sure how the Ravens aren’t a bigger favorite here. I think a lot of people are jumping on the Chargers in this one, mainly because the perception is that even though Baltimore beat them, LA is the better team. I also think there’s a lack of trust for Baltimore’s rookie quarterback Lamar Jackson and a lot of trust for Philip Rivers.
I’ll be the first to admit that I was skeptical of Jackson being able to succeed at the NFL level, especially this early on his career. I thought he would need at least one season on the bench to kind of learn the NFL game and develop as a pro passer. Turns out that while he still has a long way to go as thrower, he’s more than ready to impact the NFL game with his legs. Jackson has rushed for 695 yards and accounted for 45 first downs with his legs (best on the team by 8). Since they went with him as the starter, Baltimore has transformed into an elite rushing team. In the 7 games with him as the starter, they are averaging 229.9 ypg. That would be unheard of if they did that for an entire season.
What this incredible rushing attack has allowed the Ravens to do with Jackson, is control the clock and keep one of the league’s best defenses fresh. It’s a recipe that can work. Baltimore not only beat the Chargers in LA, but they were a couple 4th down conversions by the Chiefs away from a win at Arrowhead.
The big downside is that this style of play will often lead to a lot of close games. I just think that Jackson and the Ravens offense will be able to generate enough points and more than anything, play keep away from Rivers and that Chargers offense. Rivers is known to press the issue when he’s frustrated and he threw 2 picks against this Baltimore defense in Week 15. No team is better at disguising their defense than the Ravens. I’m banking on Rivers making a mistake or two here. Give me the Ravens -2.5!
|01-05-19||Seahawks v. Cowboys -1||Top||22-24||Win||100||27 h 4 m||Show|
50* COWBOYS/SEAHAWKS WILD CARD SATURDAY TOP PLAY (Cowboys -1)
I just think the price here is too good to pass up with Dallas. The Cowboys have a much bigger homefield advantage than what we are seeing with this line. Dallas is 7-1 on their home field, where they are outscoring opponents on average by 6.5 points/game. Seattle’s not a horrible road team, but they were just 3-4 in true road games and their 3 road wins were all against non playoff teams in the Cardinals, Panthers and Lions. Two of those they won on last second field goals.
It’s no secret that these two teams are built on their running game. For me it’s not so much who has the better rushing attack, but which of these two defenses are better equipped to defend it. That’s where I think we see the big edge here for the Cowboys.
Dallas’ defense has been outstanding against run. They finished 5th in the NFL, giving up just 3.8 yards/carry and 5th in run defense, allowing 94.6 ypg. Keep in mind this was with the Cowboys giving up 178 rushing yards in a game they didn’t show up to play in Week 15 (game really didn’t matter in terms of winning division. They had basically won the NFC East the week before with a 29-23 win over the Eagles). They also allowed 143 rushing yards in a meaningless Week 17 game against the Giants (win or lose, Dallas was going to be the No. 4 seed).
On the flip side of this, while Seattle ranks a respectable 13th in run defense, giving up 113.2 ypg, they are 30th in the NFL, giving up 4.9 yards/carry. Only the Chiefs (5.0 ypc) and Rams (5.1 ypc) were worse.
You can also look back at the Week 3 matchup. Dallas rushed for 166 yards on 19 attempts (8.7 yards/carry) and Seattle had just 113 yards on 39 attempts (2.9 yards/carry). The big difference was at that time Dak Prescott didn’t have Amari Cooper to throw the ball. Tight end Geoff Swaim led the team with 5 receptions for 47 yards. Despite only playing in 9 games, Cooper finished as the team’s No. 1 receiver with 725 yards and also led the team with 6 receiving touchdowns.
I think this time around the Cowboys will be able to put some points on the board and really let their defense feed off the energy of the home fans. Dallas is a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs a team that is giving up 350 or more yards/game (Seattle allows 353 ypg). Seattle is also a team that has been overvalued quite a bit in recent playoff games. Seahawks are a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. Give me the Cowboys -1!
|01-01-19||Texas +13.5 v. Georgia||28-21||Win||100||31 h 14 m||Show|
40* NCAAF SUGAR BOWL ATS MASSACRE (Texas +13.5)
I get the Sugar Bowl is a big deal and it’s on New Year’s Day, but there’s no bowl game that’s going to be good enough for Georgia than the playoffs. The Bulldogs were 20 minutes away from upsetting the Crimson Tide and being in the playoffs. I just don’t know how this team can recover from blowing another 2nd half lead to the Crimson Tide, where the backup at the time came in and saved the day for Alabama. Beating Texas does absolutely nothing for this team.
On the flip side of this, I think this game is massive for Texas and their pursuit of getting back to being one of the elite programs in the country. Outside of their win over Oklahoma in the Red River Rivalry, this would hands down be the best win for the Longhorns under Herman.
You also can’t ignore the track record that Herman has had not only in bowl games with his 2-0 record (both blowout wins as a dog), but how his team has performed as an underdog in general. Herman’s team has been a dog 15 times and he’s posted a 12-3 record against the spread and won 10 of the games outright.
You also have to factor in that Georgia will be without corner Deandre Baker, who is skipping the game to prepare for the draft. Baker is an absolute stud and a lock to be a 1st round pick. I think that’s a massive blow in this matchup. Texas’ offense is built on their passing game and it will be a lot easier throwing the ball without the Jim Thorpe winner on the field. Give me the Longhorns +13.5!
|01-01-19||Washington v. Ohio State -6.5||Top||23-28||Loss||-106||27 h 27 m||Show|
50* NEW YEAR'S DAY BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR (Ohio State -6.5)
I just think this being the final game that Urban Meyer will coach at Ohio State makes this more than just another bowl game for the Buckeyes.
In terms of talent, I think Ohio State is right there with the likes of Alabama and Clemson. It just seems like this team knows how good they are and has a problem with overlooking teams they should beat. I think it’s why we saw so many close games against mediocre teams and why we have also seen Ohio State suffer some ugly losses the last two years. In 2017 they got annihilated 55-24 at Iowa and this year they had a similar 49-20 loss at Purdue.
The thing is, the big games this team has almost always delivered under Meyer. Nothing speaks more true to that than the fact that Ohio State was a perfect 7-0 against rival Michigan under Meyer and their 4-1 bowl record over their last 5 bowl games.
Keep in mind they were in a very similar spot last year where they won the Big Ten title, but didn’t make the playoff and went out and beat USC 24-7 as a 8-point favorite in the Cotton Bowl.
The other big thing is that I just can’t get over how bad the Pac-12 has been in bowl games over recent years. You also have the struggles that Petersen has had in bowl games with this Washington team and the fact that they simply weren’t anywhere close to as good as what we were expecting. I think the biggest thing is Huskies senior quarterback Jake Browning hasn’t matured liked we all thought he would. He’s one of the most overrated quarterbacks in the country. I just don’t see him going toe-to-toe with Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins. Give me the Buckeyes -6.5!
|12-31-18||NC State v. Texas A&M -7||Top||13-52||Win||100||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* TAXSLAYER GATOR BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Texas A&M -7)
I think this might be one of the bigger mismatches this bowl season. I think Texas A&M is hands down the best 8-win team in the country and NC State might be one of the biggest frauds in the nation. I just don’t think it’s going to be close.
Not only are the Wolfpack a bit overrated coming into this game, but they got two of their best players sitting this out in wide out Kelvin Harmon and linebacker Germaine Pratt. Harmon had 81 receptions for a team-high 1,186 yards and 7 scores, while Pratt led the team in tackles. On top of that, NC State is also having to deal with a new look to their offense, as offensive coordinator Eli Drinkwitz has left to be the new head coach at Appalachian State.
The biggest thing here is I don’t see Ryan Finley and that NC State offense being able to keep pace here. Texas A&M has a really good defense and one that held teams almost 60 yards under their average. They are almost impossible to run against and I just think that defensive front will be living in the Wolfpack backfield.
As for the Aggies offense, they should be able to put up some big numbers here. While NC State’s defense only gave up 22.7 ppg, they really only played two legit offenses all year in Clemson and Syracuse. The Tigers had 41 points and nearly 500 yards, while the Orange put up 51 and 561 yards. Fisher worked wonders with Kellen Mond this year and I think he’s going to light it up in the bowl game. Give me the Aggies -7!
|12-31-18||Pittsburgh v. Stanford -3.5||13-14||Loss||-109||3 h 56 m||Show|
40* SUN BOWL NO DOUBT ATS KNOCKOUT (Stanford -3.5)
Even with Bryce Love sitting this one out, I’m confident the Cardinal will be the more prepared team when these two take the field on Monday. Not to mention, Stanford is the more talented team and have key edges at quarterback and on the line of scrimmage.
Not to take anything away from what Pitt accomplished, but I do think they are getting some unwarranted love for winning a horrible ACC Coastal. Keep in mind we have already seen two of the better teams in the Coastal get absolutely annihilated in their bowl. Georgia Tech lost 34-10 to a very mediocre Minnesota team and Miami was embarrassed 35-3 by Wisconsin.
I get that the Panthers played Notre Dame tough on the road, but they also had just 242 yards in that game and were outgained by 100 yards and lost despite a +2 turnover margin. I get the Cardinal stunk it up at Notre Dame, but this team has at least shown they can compete with the top tier teams and I like how the finished the season strong.
Keep in mind that Stanford lost by 3-points to Washington State and by 4 points at Washington. Had they won those two, they would have won the Pac-12 North and likely been headed to the Rose Bowl.
Another key here is how the two teams matchup. Pitt is a very run dominated team. They averaged almost twice as many runs (41) as they did passes (22). Even though this wasn’t a great Stanford defense, they only gave up 3.9 yards/carry and just 141 ypg. Most of their struggles came against the pass.
On the flip side of this, the Cardinal have a great solid quarterback in Costello, but really struggled to get the running game going. Pitt gave up almost 5 yards/carry. In their last two they gave up a combined 594 rushing yards to Miami and Clemson. Stanford didn’t lose a game when the rushed for at least 125. Give me the Cardinal -3.5!
|12-30-18||Bears v. Vikings -4.5||24-10||Loss||-110||31 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL VEGAS ATS MASSACRE (Vikings -4.5)
I think the perception a lot of people are going to have when they look at this line, is there’s value with the Bears getting more than field goal, as they see Chicago still has something to play for with the No. 2 seed up for grabs and most consider the Bears to be the better team at this point.
I’m not buying Chicago being all-in for this game. I think head coach Matt Nagy is saying all the right things here, with how they aren’t going to assume the Rams are going to win and will play their starters, but I’m confident the players know just how unlikely a scenario it is that LA loses at home to the 49ers.
Not to mention, even if they do show up 100% invested in this game, it’s not out of the question they see the Rams are in complete control early and decide to rest some guys in the second half. I also think they are going to be extra cautious with any injuries that some of their players are dealing with. For example, I would be shocked if safety Eddie Jackson plays even though he’s listed as questionable.
I really think the most important thing for the Bears was to lock up the No. 3 seed, which they did last week. That ensures that they won’t have to travel to New Orleans until at least the NFC Championship Game, if they were to advance that far.
Minnesota on the other hand is basically in a do-or-die scenario and you can count on a playoff-like atmosphere at US Bank Stadium on Sunday. I just don’t think people realize how big a home field edge they have. Since head coach Mike Zimmer came to Minneapolis, the Vikings have gone 29-11 ATS at home, including a 23-8 ATS mark as a home favorite. This also a series that has been dominated by the home team, as the home side is an impressive 23-9 ATS in the last 32 meetings between these two teams. Give me the Vikings -4.5!
|12-30-18||Panthers v. Saints OVER 42.5||33-14||Win||100||25 h 34 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 42.5)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 42.5 on the total for Sunday's meaningless NFC South matchup between the Panthers and Saints. I just think there's zero incentive for either side to go all out on the defensive side of the ball.
New Orleans has the No. 1 seed in the NFC locked up. This is more like an exhibition game than anything. I just think the defense will be pretty vanilla and most of the starters will be out of this game early. I know Panthers are down to Josh Allen at quarterback, but the guy played well in relief last week and was decent in the preseason.
No Drew Brees for the Saints is a big reason the total here is so low, but they got Teddy Bridgewater starting and he was outstanding in the preseason and will want to put on a show, as he tries to land a starting job for next year. Panthers defense has had the life sucked out of them with this losing streak and they are giving up 27.6 ppg on the road. I think these two fly past this number in the perfect conditions of the Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Take the OVER 42.5!
|12-30-18||Falcons v. Bucs +2||Top||34-32||Push||0||24 h 27 m||Show|
50* NFC SOUTH GAME OF THE YEAR (Bucs +2)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Tampa Bay as a home dog. I think there's no reason the Bucs should be a dog at home against the Falcons. While Tampa Bay comes in having lost 3 straight, one was a defeat at home to the Saints. The other two were on the road against likely division winners in Baltimore and Dallas (both 1-score games).
I'm not sold on Jameis Winston long-term, but he's been playing much better of late. The Bucs have turned it over just 5 times in their last 5 games after a ridiculous 29 turnovers in their previous 9 games. I also think a lot of people aren't aware of how much better this Tampa Bay defense has been playing since they switch defensive coordinators. I also think people would be shocked to hear that the Bucs haven't allowed a 300-yard passer in 10 straight games. In their last 7 they have held 6 under 200 yards.
Atlanta's offense has not been up to par in the 2nd half of the season. While they scored 40 a couple weeks ago against the Cardinals, that's the only game in their last 7 that they have scored more than 24 and the 24 they put up last week was more of the Panthers not having Newton and not coming to play after getting knocked out of the playoff race. Give me the Bucs +2!
|12-29-18||Notre Dame v. Clemson -11.5||3-30||Win||100||6 h 15 m||Show|
40* CFB SEMIFINAL (NOTRE DAME/CLEMSON) ATS NO-BRAINER (Clemson -11.5)
As much as the betting public loves to back the Tigers, most will convince themselves that this is too many points to pass up with Notre Dame. I could be completely wrong here, but I don’t think the Irish are anywhere close to being on the same level as Clemson, who I feel is right there with Alabama in terms of being in another class compared to the rest of college football.
Sure, the Fighting Irish played 10 teams from a Power 5 conference this year and coming into the season it looked like a pretty difficult schedule. Unfortunately the likes of Stanford, Virginia Tech, Florida State and USC were not as good as we thought. The win over Michigan looks great, but it’s not nearly as impressive as it was before we watched the Wolverines get annihilated by Ohio State in their regular-season finale.
Haven’t we seen this story before. Everyone was saying that 2012 was different and Notre Dame was going to knock off Alabama. It only took a couple series before we knew the Irish were frauds. Same thing last year when they were No. 3 and favorite at Miami. The Irish didn’t just lose, they got annihilated 41-8.
I’m not saying they are a bad team. There’s a lot of talent on this Notre Dame team. I just don’t think they have enough to hang with the juggernaut that is Clemson. The Tigers just aren’t an elite offensive team, they got some absolute studs on the defensive side of the ball, especially up front on the defensive line. There will be without star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence.
Lawrence is an amazing player and it certainly will be easier on Notre Dame, but they got 3 other NFL draft picks that are going to be on the field and chances are they probably got a young backup or two that will be playing on Sunday’s down the road. I just don’t think the Irish offensive line is going to know what hit them. I just don’t think they will be able to score enough to keep this thing close. Give me the Tigers -11.5!
|12-29-18||Florida +6.5 v. Michigan||Top||41-15||Win||100||66 h 58 m||Show|
50* FLORIDA/MICHIGAN CHICK-FIL-A PEACH BOWL TOP PLAY (Florida +6.5)
I’m not buying for a second that Michigan is excited at all about playing in this game. I’m pretty confident that for most of the Wolverines players and fans, the season ended with that ugly loss at Ohio State in the finale. A defeat that ultimately kept Michigan out of the college football playoffs. No disrespect to the Peach Bowl, which is a bowl that a lot of teams would love to be in, but it’s a letdown compared to what the Wolverines were hoping for.
I think just how little this game means to Michigan is pretty evident by the fact that they got 4 starters sitting this out to prepare for the NFL draft, including two of their best defensive payers in Rashan Gary and Devin Bush, as well as leading rusher Karan Higdon. Both Gary and Bush are considered Top prospects for the 2019 draft and Higdon is the 5th best running back on the board.
On the flip side of this, I think there’s a ton of incentive here for Florida to play well, as they are still in the early stages of their transition to new head coach Dan Mullen. I think Mullen will convince his team that this game is a measuring stick for the program with Michigan being ranked No. 7. There’s also no doubt that Mullen will be playing the underdog card with his team in this one. I also don’t think Harbaugh is the most liked guy in the SEC and there’s some seniors on this team that haven’t forgot about the whooping Harbaugh’s Wolverines handed them back in the 2015 Citrus Bowl.
You also can’t ignore the track record of these two coaches in bowl games. Mullens is 5-2 overall and won 3 straight to close out his tenure with Mississippi State, including a upset win over Louisville as a 6-point dog in last year’s TaxSlayer Bowl. You then have Harbaugh, who is 1-2 in bowl games with Michigan, having lost the last two outright as a favorite of at least a touchdown. Give me the Gators +6.5!
|12-28-18||Iowa State +130 v. Washington State||26-28||Loss||-100||10 h 6 m||Show|
40* ALAMO BOWL MONEY LINE MASSACRE (ISU +130)
I'll gladly back Iowa State on the money line against Washing State. I not only think the Cyclones are the more talented team, they are better coached, have the better QB and are the more motivated side. I don't think people realize just what kind of talent ISU uncovered at quarterback in Brock Purdy. The bowl practices are only going to help him and I think he's going to torch this Cougars defense. Washington STate's offense is nothing new to the Cyclones, who see that style of play week in and week out in the Big 12. Pac-12 is also just not very good and have consistently under-performed in bowl games. Leach is 1-3 SU in bowls at Washington State and they have been favored in all 4. Give me the Cyclones +130!
|12-28-18||Syracuse -3 v. West Virginia||Top||34-18||Win||100||6 h 22 m||Show|
50* CAMPING WORLD BOWL SHARP TOP PLAY (Syracuse -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Orange laying a mere field goal against the Mountaineers. I actually liked Syracuse to win this game outright as a 7-point dog with Will Grier still in the lineup. I think it's an absolute gift to get Syracuse at this price without Grier. Sure the backup could be great, but the odds say there will be a major dropoff in productivity at the most important position on the field. I just don't see how the Mountaineers are going to score enough to make a game of it. Syracuse has a legit QB and are scoring 40.7 ppg. They will be up against a West Virginia defense that is allowing 32.8 ppg on the road. Give me Syracuse -3!
|12-26-18||Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -6||34-10||Loss||-110||6 h 39 m||Show|
40* QUICK LANE BOWL ATS NO-BRAINER (Georgia Tech -6)
I have Georgia Tech rated as the much better team and I just don’t think it’s asking a lot given the circumstances to win by at least a touchdown.
I know Minnesota is going to be excited about playing in their first bowl game under P.J. Fleck, but the motivational edge has to go to the Yellow Jackets in this one. When Georgia Tech head coach Paul Johnson announced his retirement, this instantly became a lot more than just another bowl game. Johnson has been outstanding in his 11 years with Georgia Tech and these players are going to give everything they have to make sure he goes out in style.
On top of the motivational edge, I really like this matchup for the Yellow Jackets. No surprise behind the triple-option that Georgia Tech was a good rushing team. However, this was quite a season for them on the ground. The Yellow Jackets led the country in rushing at 334.9 ypg. The next best was Army back at 296.3 and we just saw the Black Knights put up over 500 yards in their bowl game against Houston.
It’s the most yards Georgia Tech has averaged in a season since they put up 342 ypg back in 2014. The year they won 11 games and lost a heartbreaker 37-35 to FSU in the ACC title game.
Minnesota wasn’t exactly great at stopping the run. In fact, they rank 75th in the country, giving up 170.7 rushing yards/game. The more staggering number for me is that they allowed 278 yards/game and 7.8 yards/carry away from home. Add in that they haven’t really faced any triple-option teams in recent years and you have to assume Georgia Tech is going to run wild.
I know the Yellow Jackets defense isn’t top notch, but they will be facing a pretty average Minnesota offense. One that ranked outside the Top 70 in both rushing and passing. Not to mention, averaged a mere 24 ppg on the road. Give me Georgia Tech -6!
|12-23-18||Chiefs v. Seahawks||Top||31-38||Loss||-118||31 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL SHARP MONEY PLAY OF THE YEAR (Chiefs PK)
As difficult as last week’s loss to the Chargers was, I think it’s a gift to lay less than a field goal with the Chiefs against any team in the league and I'm just going to play the money line in this one. Kansas City is 11-3 and their losses have come by a combined 7-points against 3 of the best teams in the league in the Patriots, Rams and Chargers.
It’s not the offense that has let this team down in their defeats, as the Chiefs have scored a ridiculous 119 points in their 3 losses (39.7 ppg). They could just as easily won all 3 of those games and be sitting at 15-0. No way would they be only a 2.5-point favorite if that was the case.
Give Philip Rivers and the Chargers credit for making the plays they did, but so much had to go right for them to get that win. I loved how the Chiefs were able to get a ton of pressure on Rivers and had Eric Berry not been on a pitch count (didn’t play the 2nd half), they likely win that game. Berry was a legit difference maker in the 1st half and is expected to play a bigger role in this game.
I think the Chiefs are going to make life very difficult on Russell Wilson and the Seahawks offense in this one and I just don’t see Seattle being able to score enough to keep this game close. Patrick Mahomes is playing out of his mind right now and my money is on him delivering a big time performance when the Chiefs need it the most.
It’s no secret Seattle wants to run the football. Andy Reid is 15-5 in the second half of the season against teams who average 130 or more rushing yards/game as a head coach in the NFL. Chiefs are also 11-3 ATS under Reid in road games after scoring 25 or more in each of their last 2 and 9-1 ATS last 10 after playing their previous 2 on the road.
I also want to point out that while a win here for Seattle would be huge, they can lose and still secure a Wild Card spot with a win at home over the Cardinals in Week 17. Give me the Chiefs!
|12-23-18||Falcons -2.5 v. Panthers||24-10||Win||100||24 h 59 m||Show|
40* NFL ODDSMAKERS LINE MISTAKE (Falcons -2.5)
I had Atlanta circled as a play this week after Carolina's loss to the Saints on Monday Night Football. I only like it that much more, given that the Panthers are all but throwing in the towel on the season by sitting Cam Newton to rest his injured shoulder. That tells me this team knew that their only hope of making the playoffs was to win that game at home against New Orleans. You could see it on the players faces at the end of that game.
I just think it’s a really difficult thing to go from playing in what feels like a do-or-die situation, not getting the job done and then have to come out and just play for fun the very next week. The life was sucked out of this team when they lost to the Saints.
Keep in mind the Panthers are going to Taylor Heinicke, who has attempted 5 career passes in his 3 seasons in the NFL. I just think he’s going to struggle to play well in this offense. Carolina doesn’t have a go-to receiver and you can bet that Atlanta is going to put all of their attention on Christian McCaffrey.
As for the Atlanta offense, they finally got back some of their mojo. The Falcons put up 435 yards and 40 points last week against the Cardinals. Matt Ryan was 22 of 36 for 231 yards and 2 scores and I look for them to have no problem exposing this Carolina defense.
I also want to point out that a big reason the Falcons have underachieved this year is the injuries they were dealt early on the defensive side of the ball. They are in a lot better shape on that side of the ball going into the final weeks. They racked up 7 sacks last week against the Cardinals and in just his 3rd game back after missing the previous 10 games, Deion Jones returned a pick for a touchdown. It really seems like that Atlanta defense feeds off of his energy.
Given everything I have covered, I actually think this line should be closer to touchdown than a field goal, as I think the Falcons are going to have this thing in the bag by the half. Give me Atlanta -2.5!
|12-23-18||Texans v. Eagles -1.5||30-32||Win||100||24 h 55 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Eagles -1.5)
I know Philadelphia has been a major disappointment this year, but for the first time in a long time, we saw this team resemble the team that won it all. The Eagles played inspired last week against the Rams and there’s clearly something about having their backs against the wall and Nick Foles at quarterback that brings out the best in this team.
I see no reason not to expect more of the same against the Texans, who I’m starting to think might be the biggest fraud of them all. The more you look back over Houston’s schedule, the harder it becomes to trust this team. Their only win against a team that’s currently in line to make the playoffs is a 19-16 overtime win at home against the Cowboys back in Week 5 before Dallas landed Amari Cooper.
Sure the defense is good, but I’m not so sure it’s as good as people think. They certainly haven’t played many top notch quarterbacks and when they have they have struggled. I know Foles isn’t an elite signal caller, but I think this Eagles offense will be able to move the ball on their home field.
My biggest concern with the Texans is they are struggling to consistently run the ball and are having an absolute miserable time trying to protect Deshaun Watson. The Jets sacks Watson 6 times last week and he’s been sacked 52 times on the year. If he’s sacked 8 more times over the next two games, he’ll become the seven NFL quarterback to be sacked at least 60 times in a single season.
This Eagles defensive front is not one you want to face if protecting the quarterback is a problem. Philadelphia only had 2 sacks on Jared Goff, but harassed him all night long. I think Watson is in for a long day and the more desperate team wins here. Give me the Eagles -1.5!
|12-22-18||Louisiana Tech +1 v. Hawaii||Top||31-14||Win||100||29 h 57 m||Show|
50* HAWAII BOWL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (LA TECH +1)
I'll gladly back the Bulldogs in the Hawaii Bowl. As nice as it is for Hawaii to being playing a home game for their bowl, I don’t think the home crowd will be enough to overcome the gap in talent here.
At the time the season started it looked like Hawaii had pulled off a couple of nice wins over Colorado State and Navy, but turns out both of those programs were way down. The Rams finished 3-9 and Navy finished 3-10. In fact, the only win the Rainbow Warriors had was a 31-30 overtime win against San Diego State in the regular-season finale. That win looks less impressive given how much the Aztecs struggled in the 2nd half of the season and we just watched them get shutout by Ohio in their bowl game.
You can’t just discredit a team for playing an easy schedule, but the problem is Hawaii really struggled against the good teams they played. They lost by 26 to BYU, 18 to Nevada, 30 to Fresno State and 39 to Utah State. Both losses against Nevada and Utah State coming on their home field.
We also saw a Hawaii offense that was the talk of college football early on, manage to eclipse 30 points just once in regulation over their final 7 games. I think the Warriors will struggle to get that offense going against a solid Louisiana Tech defense. The Bulldogs finished 32nd in the country, giving up just 373 yards/game. They were also 30th against the pass, allowing just 193.6 passing yards/game.
On the flip side of this, Hawaii’s lucky their offense was so good early, because they defense was a disaster. Hawaii was 101st in the country, giving up 438.7 ypg. They were manhandled up front, as they finished 106th against the run, allowing 207.5 yards/game.
Add in the fact that the Bulldogs are a perfect 4-0 in bowl games under head coach Skip Holtz and I think the wrong team is favored in this one. Give me Louisiana Tech +1.
|12-22-18||Ravens +4.5 v. Chargers||22-10||Win||100||27 h 35 m||Show|
40* NFL SATURDAY ATS MASSACRE (Ravens +4.5)
I'll take my chances here with the Ravens and grab the points with Baltimore. I think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction with this line on the Chargers. I’m not saying Los Angeles shouldn’t be favored, but 4.5 is a lot in a game that doesn’t figure to be decided until the 4th quarter.
I actually like the Ravens to win this game. Baltimore has been a different team since Lamar Jackson took over at quarterback. They are 4-1 under Jackson with the only loss coming in OT at Kansas City, where the Chiefs had to convert multiple 4th downs just to force extra time.
I’m skeptical of Jackson being able to do what he’s doing long-term, as mobile quarterbacks have a pretty short shelf-life, especially ones that aren’t built like Cam Newton.
However, that’s not a problem right now and he’s transformed this team with his ability to torment defenses with his legs. Since he took over at quarterback the Ravens aren’t just a good rushing team, they are elite. In his 5 starts, Baltimore is averaging a ridiculous 230.8 ypg.
It’s a deadly combination with a top notch defense, as the Ravens are able to eat up the clock and keep the opposing offenses off the field. No better recipe to win on the road against Philip Rivers and the Chargers then to keep No. 17 on the sidelines.
I know that there’s a ton at stake for Los Angeles in this game, but I’m also a bit concerned they could suffer a bit of a letdown after that big win over the Chiefs. Win or lose, they are going to the playoffs.
The same can’t be said for Baltimore. The Ravens simply can’t afford to lose this game if they want to make the playoffs. I think they get the job done and worst case keep it close enough to cover. Give me Baltimore +4.5!
|12-22-18||Houston v. Army -5||14-70||Win||100||22 h 6 m||Show|
40* ARMED FORCES BOWL ATS KNOCKOUT (Army -5)
I'll take my chances with the Black Knights. I just think there’s something special about this year’s Army team and I just don’t see them losing this game. With a win this Black Knight’s team has the right to be considered one of, if not, the best teams in school history. Not to mention I think they feel obligated to play well in a bowl that’s basically name after them.
I’m sure there will be some that think Army is at a disadvantage here, because they haven’t had the same amount of time off. This game will be just two week after the Black Knights faced off against Navy. Houston on the other hand hasn’t played since the day after Thanksgiving. I think if you have two weeks to get ready for a game, that’s more than enough. In fact, I actually think they are at an advantage having just payed, as there’s going to be some rust with Houston.
I get that extra time to prepare for Army and the triple-option is a big deal, but this will not be the Cougars defensive front that everyone was raving about coming into the year. Star defensive tackle, Ed Oliver is not going to play and he’s really the guy that made this unit great. They also lost starting defensive ends Jerad Carter and Isaiah Chambers to season ending injuries. Same thing with one of their top backups in Payton Turner.
We’re also talking about a Houston defense that did a complete 180 in terms of stopping the run this year. In the Cougars first 6 games of the season they allowed a mere 116 yards/game. Over their final 6 games they gave up 278.2 yards/game. Note that one of those was against Navy, who basically runs the same offense and the Midshipmen had 344 rushing yards.
Army’s rushing attack is better than Navy. In fact, the only team that averaged more rushing yards than the Black Knights was Georgia Tech, as Army came in 2nd at 296.3 yards/game.
Not only does Army figure to be able to move the ball, but Houston’s offense will still be without star quarterback D’Erig King, who basically did it all for this team. King had just under 3,000 yards passing with a 36-6 TD-INT ratio. He was also second on the team with 674 rushing yards and his 14 rushing touchdowns were as many as the rest of the team had combined. Give me Army -5
|12-20-18||Marshall -3.5 v. South Florida||38-20||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
40* GASPARILLA BOWL ATS NO BRAINER (Marshall -3.5)
I think the fact that this game is being played on South Florida’s home field and they are a dog to a team from a perceived worse conference, tells you all you need to know. I'll gladly lay the small number with the Thundering Herd in a game I think they have a realistic shot at winning in a blowout.
I don’t think the poor finish to the season for the Bulls was any kind of fluke. If anything, I think it showed us just how much of a fluke their 7-0 start really was. In fact, if you look closer at the numbers, USF is lucky to even be in a bowl game. They were down 2 scores in the 4th quarter to both Tulsa and Illinois and somehow won both. They trailed 24-9 in the 1st quarter of a win over East Carolina. They were also outgained by almost 200 yards in a win over Georgia Tech, where they had two kick returns for a TD.
Let’s also not forget South Florida was expected to take a step back this year, as they only had 11 returning starters and had to replace one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country in Quinton Flowers. Not to mention their two top rushers behind Flowers, who combined for over 1,800 yards and 18 scores.
The addition of Alabama transfer Blake Barnett did help ease the loss of Flowers, but he struggled to take care of the ball, throwing as many interceptions (11) as he did touchdowns (11). He might not even play due to a shoulder injury.
USF will also be going up against a tough Marshall defense. The Thundering Herd finished 23rd in total defense, giving up just 335.6 ypg. They were also exceptional against the run, allowing just 104 yards/game and a mere 2.9 yards/carry.
On the flip side of this, the South Florida defense was not very good at all this year. Opposing teams did as they pleased against them. More times than not, just running it down their throats, as the Bulls allowed 245 yards/game and 5 yards/carry against the run. Give me Marshall -3.5!
|12-19-18||Ohio v. San Diego State +3||27-0||Loss||-110||9 h 10 m||Show|
40* NCAAF FRISCO BOWL ATS ANNIHILATOR (San Diego St +3)
I just think we are seeing a bit of an overreaction to San Diego State's poor finish to the regular-season. While a loss is a loss, the storyline for the Aztecs could be very different if a few breaks had gone their way. In their 1-4 finish to the season, all 4 losses came by single-digits with 3 decided by 4 or less.
I think Long will definitely use the underdog card to get his team fired up and I'm pretty confident they are the better team. Not to take anything away from Ohio's 8-wins this year, but the MAC is way down from what it's been in previous years. I wasn't all that impressed with this team in non-conference. They were 2-2 with the two wins coming against Howard and UMass. What really stood out to me is their defense, which gave up 38.3 ppg (at least 32 in all 4).
The Bobcats offense has carried this team. They are averaging 41.2 ppg and 471 ypg. Impressive, but again, I think it has a lot to with the easy schedule they have played. San Diego State has been a defensive force under Long. They gave up a mere 21.7 ppg this season and that was their highest mark in 5 years.
The big key here is that Ohio's offense is built on their running game. They come in averaging 262 ypg and 6.1 yards/carry. That plays right into the strength of the Aztecs' defense. San Diego State allowed a mere 94 yards/game and 2.7 yards/carry this season. There were 3 times Ohio failed to reach 150 rushing yards against a FBS opponent and they were 1-2 with a mere 1-point win at Kent State. They had 9 turnovers in those 3 games, compared to just 8 in their other 9 games combined. Give me San Diego State +3!
|12-18-18||Northern Illinois +113 v. UAB||13-37||Loss||-100||9 h 15 m||Show|
40* BOCA RATON BOWL MONEY LINE WINNER (N Illinois +113)
I just think the Huskies are the better team. Northern Illinois’ 8-5 record is extremely misleading because of their non-conference schedule. They played @ Iowa, hosted Utah, @ Florida State and @ BYU. They only lost by 11 at home to the Utes and upset BYU 7-6. They were a perfect 6-0 in MAC play before losing the final two games of the regular-season. What a lot of people will overlook is those two late losses came after they had already clinched a spot in the MAC title game.
UAB’s only big step-up game in non-conference was at Texas A&M late in the year, which they weren’t competitive in. While they did have a decent win at home against Tulane they also lost 47-24 to a Coastal Carolina team that finished the year 5-7 (2-6 Sun Belt). It’s also worth noting they didn’t have to play Marshall, FIU or FAU out of the East.
I know it’s a new year, but I also can’t not look at the two games the Blazers played against the MAC last year. They lost by 20-points to a Ball State team that finished the year 2-10. Then they got absolutely destroyed by Ohio in the bowl game.
As far as the matchup is concerned, I think Northern Illinois’ defense is going to dominate this game. UAB wants to run the football. They averaged 45 rush attempts compared to just 24 pass attempts. They averaged 209 rushing yards and just 191 passing yards (only completed 55.9%). The Huskies only gave up 110 rushing/yards game and 2.7 yards/carry, which is truly remarkable given the teams they played out of conference. They have an All-American defensive end in Sutton Smith, who led the country with 15 sacks.
I know the Northern Illinois offense isn’t great, but you have to keep in mind their offensive numbers are greatly skewed due to having to face Iowa, Florida State, BYU and Utah out of conference. They were much more efficient in conference play. I think they can score into the 20’s and I think that will be enough to get the win. Give me the Huskies!
|12-17-18||Saints v. Panthers OVER 50||Top||12-9||Loss||-105||8 h 24 m||Show|
50* MNF VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Over 50)
For whatever reason, these two have a history of playing high-scoring games. The OVER cashed in all 3 meetings between these two teams last year and is 7-1 in the last 8 overall.
A big reason for that is the Panthers defense hasn’t figured out a way to slow down Brees and the Saints offense. New Orleans had at least 31 points in all 3 meetings last year and have scored 30 or more in 5 of the last 6 in the series. It really shouldn’t be a big surprise. The Panthers defense hasn’t been great in the secondary and are more built to stop the run behind star middle linebacker Luke Kuechly. Their secondary can be exposed and few are better at dicing up defensive backs than Sean Payton and Brees.
This year is no different for Carolina. They come into this game ranked 7th against the run but are a mere 20th agains the pass. They also don’t do a great job of putting pressure on the quarterback, as they rank in the bottom 10 in sacks this year.
As for the Saints offensive struggles the last two games, I think a big part of that was both Dallas and Tampa Bay have been getting after the quarterback. Cowboys have been doing it all season and the Bucs have made major improvements in that area since switching defensive coordinators.
I think it’s reasonable to expect around 30 points from New Orleans, which means we only need something like 21-24 from Carolina. The Panthers can move the football. They are 9th in the NFL in total offense at 378.1 ypg. They are also lighting up the scoreboard at Bank of America Stadium. Carolina comes in averaging 30.8 ppg at home. Give me the OVER 50!
|12-16-18||Cowboys v. Colts -2.5||0-23||Win||100||92 h 26 m||Show|
40* NFL PUBLIC ATS SLAUGHTER (Colts -2.5)
I'll take my chances laying the short number with Indianapolis at home. I just think this is the right spot to play against the Cowboys, as I not only think they are getting way too much respect here on the road against a red-hot Colts team, but I also feel like this is a big time letdown spot for Dallas.
With that win over the Eagles the Cowboys all but locked up the NFC East. They not only have a 2-game lead over both the Eagles and Redskins, but they will also hold the tie breaker against both teams, meaning the only way Dallas doesn’t win the division is if they lose out and either Washington or Philadelphia win their final 3 games. I think it’s pretty safe to say the Redskins won’t be going 3-0 over the final 3 weeks with all the injuries they have been dealt and the Eagles are likely to lose at the Rams on Sunday Night Football. I actually think there’s a really good chance that the Cowboys lose this game and still end up waking up Monday as the NFC East winners.
There’s zero doubt in my mind that Dallas hasn’t played these scenarios out in their head, which is why I think it will be so difficult for them to show up here with the kind of mindset it will take to beat a team that’s playing as well as the Colts.
It’s also worth pointing out that Ezekiel Elliott is banged up and while he’s expected to play, I got a good feeling the Cowboys are going to limit his touches after he had 40 last week against the Eagles. Not to mention the Dallas offensive line could be without stud right guard Zack Martin, who is dealing with a knee injury.
The Colts don’t have the luxury of taking this game or any of their final 3 off. It’s unlikely Indianapolis will be able to catch the Texans in the AFC South and one of the Wild Card spots is going to either the Chiefs or Chargers, which means there’s only one spot up for grabs.
This has also historically been a great time to back the Colts, as they are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 home games off an upset win as a road dog. It’s also worth pointing out that Dallas is just 2-4 on the road compared to 6-1 at home. Cowboys are also a mere 3-11 ATS under head coach Jason Garrett when they come into a game having covered 5 or 6 of their last 7. Give me the Colts -2.5!
|12-16-18||Raiders v. Bengals -3||Top||16-30||Win||100||17 h 15 m||Show|
50* NFL LATE SEASON GAME OF THE YEAR (Bengals -3)
I believe the books have completely missed the mark here. I get the Bengals come in having lost 5 straight and have lost Andy Dalton, but there's no way they shouldn't be closer to a touchdown favorite against the Raiders.
Oakland threw in the towel on the 2018 season before the season even started. Sure they got up the last two weeks at home agains the Chiefs and Steelers. They hung around with KC and upset Pittsburgh. I think it sets up a huge flat spot against another struggling team, especially with a big rivalry game at home against the Broncos next week. Might be the last time those two teams face off in Oakland and potentially the game the Raiders will play in Oakland.
Cincinnati isn't getting near enough credit for how well they played last week at the Chargers. They lost 26-21 and had their chances to pull off the upset. I've liked what I've seen out of quarterback Jeff Driskel and a talented Bengals defensive front should have their way with a banged up Raiders offensive line. Give me Cincinnati -3!
|12-16-18||Packers +6 v. Bears||17-24||Loss||-115||17 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS MASSACRE (Packers +6)
I just can’t pass up getting almost a touchdown with Aaron Rodgers, especially with the Packers’ backs against the wall. As sweet as it would be for the Bears to clinch the NFC North on their home field against Green Bay after 4 straight seasons of finishing last in the division, I got a sneaky feeling that Rodgers is going to find some way to spoil Chicago’s celebration.
I was actually on the Packers last week in their blowout win against the Falcons, as I expected this team to respond in a real positive way to the firing of McCarthy. I think Rodgers was sick and tired of his play calling and just the overall effort was way better. There’s also just something about this team, when it’s a do-or-die situation, they always seem to find a way to win.
I get the Bears haven’t forgot about that Week 1 loss to the Packers, but this far from a must-win for Chicago and there’s a chance they come out flat off that emotional win at home last week against the Rams.
While the Bears were able to upset Los Angeles, the offense didn’t have the same look to it in Mitch Trubisky’s return to the lineup. I think there’s still some rust he has to shake off and this Green Bay defense is certainly capable of slowing him down.
I also want to point out how not so far fetched it is for Green Bay to make the playoffs. There’s 4 teams ahead of them for the final Wild Card. Three of those are the Eagles Panthers and Redskins. Carolina has to play the Saints and the Eagles visit the Rams this week, while Washington is a complete mess with Josh Johnson starting at quarterback. That leaves the Vikings, who are only 1-game ahead of them and Minnesota has not exactly been playing great football of late.
It’s also worth noting that Rodgers has absolutely owned the Bears in his career. Green Bay is 17-4 (15-6 ATS) in games that Rodgers starts against the Bears and a perfect 4-0 in his last 4 starts at Soldier Field. Give me the Packers +6!
|12-15-18||Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State||13-45||Loss||-110||74 h 32 m||Show|
40* NEW ORLEANS BOWL VEGAS ATS NO-BRAINER (Middle Tenn +7)
I'll take my chances here with Middle Tennessee as they are a serious live dog in this one.
I just think there’s an art to getting a team to play well in a bowl game and clearly Scott Satterfield had something figured out. I just think him leaving for Louisville really throws a wrench into things and takes some of the focus off the actual game.
You got a defensive line coach that has to handle a job he’s not exactly prepared for and get his team ready in less than two weeks. There’s got to be some players thinking about transferring and I’m sure they are all checking in daily to see who they will get to replace Satterfield.
As far as the value is concerned with the number. Appalachian State started out the year 8-2 ATS, but they were overpriced in their two big games to end the year. They were a 12-point favorite in a 11-point win against Troy and favored by 18 in a 11-point win over Lafayette in title game. I just think 7-points is a lot to ask them to lay without their head coach against a team as talented as Middle Tennessee.
Not only were 3 of the 5 losses for the Blue Raiders true road games against SEC opponents, but their other two losses came by a combined 5-points. I just feel like a lot of people look at their 8-5 record and think they aren’t that great of a team coming out of Conference USA.
One of the big reasons I like them in this game is senior quarterback Brent Stockstill, who came into this season already the all-time leading passer in Middle Tennessee history. He completed 71% of his attempts for more than 3,200 yards and posted a 28-8 TD-INT ratio. He’s the son of the head coach and I have to think the entire team is going to play their hearts out to make sure his final game is one to remember. Give me the Blue Raiders +7!
|12-15-18||Browns +3 v. Broncos||Top||17-16||Win||100||26 h 53 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Browns +3)
I just think the injuries have become too much for Denver to overcome. On offense they playing a bunch of inexperienced receivers after trading away Demaryius Thomas and then losing Emmanuel Sanders to a season ending injury in their Week 13 win over the Bengals. Against the 49ers, Case Keenum completed 24 of 42 attempts for just 186 yards, which comes out to a dreadful 4.4 yards/attempt.
I think not having anyone to really respect in the passing game allowed the 49ers to really load up agains the run and not let Philip Lindsay beat them. San Francisco held Lindsay to just 30 yards on 14 attempts. Lindsay had 346 yards and 5 scores over the previous 3 games. Cleveland just held a pretty good Panthers rushing attack to 96 yards, so they can definitely keep Lindsay in check.
On the flip side of this, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen out of Browns’ rookie quarterback Baker Mayfield. If it wasn’t for some costly turnovers in that 29-13 loss at Houston (outgained Texans 428-384), Cleveland could easily be riding a 4-game winning streak. I also think this is a completely different and much better team since they got rid of Hue Jackson and Todd Haley.
Maybe the most important thing is the Browns are playing with a ton of confidence and if you look at the media coverage on this team, players actually think they got a chance at sneaking into the playoffs, whether it be as a Wild Card or somehow winning the AFC North. Regardless of how slim their chances really are, that’s the mentality you want to see from a team in this spot. I definitely don’t get that same vibe from the Broncos. It’s almost as if the loss the 49ers sucked the life out of this team.
It’s also worth pointing out that Denver is just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games, 4-9 ATS last 13 vs a team with a losing record, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in the month of December, 1-5 ATS last 6 after scoring less than 15 points and 3-11 ATS in their last 14 following a game where they didn’t cover the number. Give me the Browns +3!
|12-15-18||North Texas +8.5 v. Utah State||Top||13-52||Loss||-105||67 h 33 m||Show|
50* NEW MEXICO BOWL VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (N Texas +8.5)
I like the value here with North Texas. I not only think they are good enough to cover more than a touchdown spread, I think they can win this game outright. This isn’t a knock on Utah State, as I was really high on that team coming into the year. I just think these are two evenly matched teams.
I also think North Texas might be the more motivated team in this one. The Mean Green, they have a chance here to do something no other team has done at North Texas in roughly 70 years, win 10 games in a single season. Not to mention the fact that they are still searching for that first bowl win under Littrell. Speaking of Littrell, he just turned down an offer to be the new head coach at Kansas State to stay with the program. I think that says a lot about how much he likes the team he has and you have to believe the players will want to show him he made the right decision to stick around.
As for Utah State, I think there’s a lot of factors working against them. They watched their head coach, Matt Wells, leave to take over the job at Texas Tech. He’s going to take with him several coaches, including both the Aggies offensive and defensive coordinator. While some of the assistants will stick around for the bowl, I just think it’s a lot of distractions to deal with.
Keep in mind that Utah State couldn’t have ended the year on a much worse note. The Aggies only loss in Mountain West play was a costly one and it came in their very last game of the regular season. The Aggies were a perfect 7-0 in MWC play until they fell 33-24 at Boise State on Nov. 24. That knocked them out of the MWC title game, which is what this team had their hearts set on playing in.
More times than not, teams who suffer a devastating loss to end their season, have a really hard time showing up in their bowl game. I think it will be that much harder without their head coach and the fact that they are playing in what’s viewed as a pretty meaningless bowl game against a team they are expected to have no problem beating.
Another big thing here for me is the North Texas quarterback. Junior Mason Fine is one of the best kept secrets in the country. Fine completed 65% of his 457 attempts for 3,734 yards with 27 touchdowns to a mere 5 interceptions. He threw for 4,052 yards with a 31-15 TD-INT ratio as a sophomore.
While Fine is a big reason for their success, he’s got some playmakers working alongside him. Running back DeAndre Torrey has just 942 yards, but is averaging 5.9 yards/carry and has 14 rushing touchdowns. Rico Bussey Jr. has hauled in 68 passes for 1,017 yards and 12 scores. Jalen Guyton has 50 receptions for 702 yards and 5 scores and Jaelon Darden has caught 46 for 567 and 4 scores.
I think the fact that the Mountain West is viewed as a much stronger conference than C-USA and the fact that Utah State nearly won at Michigan State in non-conference play, is a big reason why this line is so high. I get Arkansas was one of the worst teams in the SEC, but North Texas whooped them 44-17 in Fayetteville. Give me the Mean Green +8.5!
|12-15-18||Tulane v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58||41-24||Win||100||66 h 0 m||Show|
40* CURE BOWL OVER/UNDER TOTAL MASSACRE (Over 58)
I'll take my chances here with the OVER 58. I just think the matchup here is going to present quite a bit of scoring opportunities. I know it’s been a couple years, but last time these two teams played (9/24/2016), Tulane won the game 41-39 for a combined 80 points and that contest only had a total of 47.
I’m not saying they hit 80 again, but I think we get that kind of game where both teams are putting up a big number.
Let’s look at the Tulane offense against the Lafayette defense. First things first, the Ragin’ Cajuns are giving up 35.7 ppg and 439 ypg away from home.
The Green Wave come finished 30th in the nation in rushing at 208.3 ypg. They should have zero problem establishing the running game against the Ragin’ Cajuns, who give up 208 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry.
While the Mean Green passing attack only averaged 186 ypg (103rd), they showcased it a little more down the stretch, throwing for 372 yards against East Carolina and 291 in the finale against Navy. Lafayette allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 67% of their attempts against them on the road with a ridiculous 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
As for the Ragin’ Cajuns offense, it’s what carried them this season. Lafayette averaged 32.5 ppg and 437 ypg with an impressive 6.7 yards/play. Tulane’s defense was pretty good on their home field, but they allowed 32.8 ppg and 452 ypg on the road. The Ragin’ Cajuns averages 229 rushing yards/game and 5.7 yards/carry. They also completed 65% of their pass attempts for 208 ypg and 8.4 yards/attempt.
They did all that despite scoring fewer than 20 points in 5 road games against Mississippi State, Alabama, Troy and Appalachian State (twice). I think most are aware of how good the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are defensively. The Trojans were 29th in total defense and Appalachian State was 6th. Tulane is 81st. Give me the OVER 58!
|12-13-18||Chargers v. Chiefs -3.5||Top||29-28||Loss||-100||11 h 51 m||Show|
50* CHARGERS/CHIEFS AFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR (Chiefs -3.5)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Kansas City as a short home favorite. Not only have the Chiefs dominated this series with 9 straight wins over the Chargers, but they are a perfect 6-0 at home this season, where they are outscoring teams by 14.0 ppg.
I just think the Chargers are getting a lot of love because of there being just a 1-game difference in the record for these two teams. Prior to their 3-point win over the Ravens, all 5 of the Chiefs previous home wins had come by at least a touchdown and they really dominated in all of those games.
I just think the percentages here are greatly in favor of Kansas City winning this game. Not only is it going to be an electric atmosphere at Arrowhead for a prime time game, but I can’t stress enough how difficult it is for the road team in these Thursday games. It’s really hard on the defenses and I think that’s where it really plays into the Chiefs favor, as they got arguably the most explosive offensive in the league right now.
As for the Chiefs defense, they are expected to get back the heart and soul of that unit in former All-Pro safety Eric Berry. It’s completely up in the air just how good Berry will be, as he hasn’t seen the field since Week 1 of last season, but I can assure you the energy in the stadium will be different with him on the field.
Another huge factor here is how banged up the Chargers are at running back. Melvin Gordon and backup Austin Ekeler are both doubtful. With the way Kansas City can get after the quarterback with their pass rush, you got no chance against that defense if you don’t make them respect the run. I know the run defense for KC isn’t great, but that’s definitely one area where Berry figures to have a huge impact right away.
It’s also worth pointing out that Philip Rivers has simply not played well against the Chiefs. He’s 2-9 as a starter against Kansas City (3-8 ATS) and the numbers are down across the board. He actually had one of his better games against the Chiefs in Week 1, as he threw for 424 yards and 3 scores. However, the Chargers offense only had 12 points going into the 4th quarter.
Another thing that I think is worth mentioning, is KC beat the Chargers in Week 1 without a big game from Kareem Hunt, who had just 49 yards rushing and didn’t catch a pass. Mahomes did as he pleased, throwing for 256 and 4 touchdowns. Expect more of the same from the likely league MVP. Give me the Chiefs -3.5!
|12-10-18||Vikings +3 v. Seahawks||7-21||Loss||-100||9 h 43 m||Show|
40* VIKINGS/SEAHAWKS MNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Vikings +3)
No disrespect to Seattle, but I just don’t think this team is the real deal. They have been very fortunate in a number of games and outside of their two games against the Rams, they really haven’t played anyone. The only team they have beat that currently has a winning record is the Cowboys and that was way back in Week 3 when Dallas was lost offensively.
Their 43-16 win over the 49ers looks great if you just focus on the final score, but they let Nick Mullens complete 30 of 48 attempts for 414 yards and 2 scores. In their previous win at Carolina, they were outgained by the Panthers 476-397 and that was more of the Panthers beating themselves than anything. Even the game before that, where they beat the Packers 27-24 at home, they trailed 14-3 early and were down 4 late in the 4th quarter.
As for Minnesota, I think now is the time to jump on the Vikings after that ugly loss at New England. I think people are overreacting to that game. A lot of teams go to Foxboro in December and don’t play well. The Vikings only other two losses since Week 4 are a loss at home to the Saints and a loss at Chicago.
I also like the matchup here. I think Seattle’s defense can be exposed and they come in ranked just 17th against the run (116.8 ypg) and 18th vs the pass (266.5 ypg). On the flip side of this, the Seahawks offense is all about their running game, which leads the league at 148.8 ypg. The Vikings aren’t a team you want to line up against and try to pound the rock. Minnesota is 7th at stopping the run, giving up only 99.2 ypg and 3.7 yards/carry. Vikings are also 10th vs the pass, so don’t expect Russell Wilson to save the day.
History is also on our side, as you don’t want to be betting on the Seahawks off a big win. Seattle is a mere 4-17 ATS in their last 21 off a win over a division rival by 21 or more and 7-22 ATS in their last 29 home games when off a win by 21 or more against any opponent.
Minnesota is 20-8 ATS under Mike Zimmer when coming off a loss and 14-4 ATS when that previous loss was on the road. Give me the Vikings +3!
|12-09-18||Rams v. Bears OVER 50.5||Top||6-15||Loss||-115||29 h 30 m||Show|
50* SUN NIGHT FOOTBALL TOTAL OF THE MONTH (Over 50.5)
First things first with a midwest game in December, you have to check the forecast before playing the total. It’s going to be cold, but nothing these players can’t candle. Most importantly there’s no precipitation or strong winds expected. I think Mother Nature is the only thing that could keep these two teams from eclipsing this number.
I get the Bears have one of the best defenses in the NFL. There’s no denying that. I just think the Rams offense is simply too good for any defense to stop. They were average at best last week at Detroit and still managed to put 30 points up on the scoreboard. I think it’s also important to note that Tom Brady and the Patriots came into Soldier Field and put up 38 points earlier this season.
The other big key here is I still think this Chicago offense is flying under the radar. Even with starting quarterback Mitch Trubisky out the past two games, they still managed 25 ppg and both of those were on the road. Trubisky and the Bears offense was really in a groove before he went down and we know this LA defense can be exposed.
Another factor here that I think favors the OVER is that while both defenses figure to give up plenty of points, both teams have a lot of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball. I think there’s going to be multiple turnovers and wouldn’t be shocked at all if both teams scored defensive touchdowns in this game.
I get 52 seems like a lot, but all we need is for a 30-23 final to cash a winning ticket. I actually think they score more than that and this thing ends up closer to 65. Give me the OVER 50.5!
|12-09-18||Eagles +3.5 v. Cowboys||23-29||Loss||-115||25 h 36 m||Show|
40* NFL UNDERDOG ATS SLAUGHTER (Eagles +3.5)
Even though the Eagles have burned me on multiple occasions this season, I'm grabbing the points with Philadelphia. This is just one of those games that I don’t see being decided until the 4th quarter and that makes the 3.5-points that much more valuable. It wouldn’t surprised me at all if this thing came down to a field goal in the final minutes. Keep in mind it was 20-20 with less than 4 minutes to play in the first meeting between these two teams.
I know there’s a lot of excitement right now with the Cowboys and their 4-game winning streak, but I’ve still got major concerns with the offense. It just relies so much on the running game that they are going to constantly find themselves in close games. All 4 wins during this streak have come by 8-points or less.
As for the Eagles, I think there’s some legit signs that this team could be getting ready to peak offensively. The run game has been greatly improved since they started giving rookie Josh Adams the bulk of the carries. They also just recently got back Darren Sproles, who I think is going to be huge coming out of the backfield to negate all that pressure Dallas likes to bring. Wide out Golden Tate, who they acquired in a trade is also coming off his best game, catching 7 passes for 85 yards and a score.
I know it hasn’t been up to the ridiculous level that he was playing at prior to getting hurt last year, but I like Carson Wentz to deliver in the big game and there’s not been a bigger game to date for Philadelphia than this one. That’s another thing. Dallas is coming off a massive upset win at home and those are the type of games that are tough to bounce back from.
Unlike the Eagles, their backs aren’t up against the wall and it’s not easy beating a team from your same division twice in one year (Dallas won 27-20 in WK 10). In fact, you have to go back to 2012 to find the last time the same team in this series won both games during the regular-season.
It’s also worth pointing out just how dominant the road team has been at covering the spread. In the last 14 meetings the road team is 11-3 ATS. Philadelphia is also 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games when revenging a same season loss. Give me the Eagles +3.5!
|12-09-18||Ravens v. Chiefs -6||24-27||Loss||-115||21 h 28 m||Show|
40* NFL NO DOUBT ATS BLOWOUT (Chiefs -6)
Kansas City is a perfect 5-0 at home this season, where they have outscored opponents by 16.2 points/game. That’s not just the result of a couple blowouts either. All 5 of the Chiefs wins at home have come by at least a touchdown.
I don’t think it’s going to be any different against the Ravens, who I think are a bit overvalued right now. Not to take anything away from Lamar Jackson and his 3-0 record as a starter, but it’s come against teams who are out of the playoff race in the Bengals, Raiders and Falcons.
I also think we are getting a good price on the Chiefs here due to the fact that they are just 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games. There’s also going to be those that think the Ravens have a shot here because of their defense. They were saying the same thing when the Jaguars came to Kansas City back in Week 5 and the Chiefs did whatever they wanted in a 30-14 victory.
I also think there’s some doubters out there with KC now that they no longer have Kareem Hunt. I’m not going to say they are better without him, but I also don’t think his absence is that big a deal with this team. As long as they have a healthy Patrick Mahomes and all those weapons on the outside, defenses will have no choice but to respect the pass and that’s going to allow for whoever runs to pick up big yards.
The Chiefs rushed for 174 yards in their first game without Hunt, which was their best mark since Week 7 and second highest total of the season. The offense has also played the last few games without wideout Sammy Watkins, but he’s back practicing and expected to suit up.
As for the defense, I think the Chiefs are more than capable of slowing down the Ravens offense. While Kansas City is giving up 27.2 ppg, they are only allowing 17.6 ppg at home. That stop unit really feeds off the home crowd, which I think is the best in the league when this team is playing well.
I actually think it works in Kansas City’s favor that Jackson is getting the start, because I don’t think you can beat this team without being able to throw the football effectively. Jackson hasn’t thrown for more than 180 yards in any start and has just 1 TD pass to 3 interceptions. If Baltimore’s defense struggles at all against that KC offense early, things could spiral out of control if the Chiefs get a double-digit lead and the Ravens are forced to throw more than they would like.
Chiefs are 8-1 ATS over the last 2 seasons as a home favorite of 7 points or less, 11-3 ATS in their last 14 vs a team from the AFC and 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 vs a team with a wining record. Ravens on the other hand have failed to cover 4 straight against a team with a winning record. Give me Kansas City -6!
|12-09-18||Giants -3 v. Redskins||Top||40-16||Win||103||21 h 14 m||Show|
50* NFC EAST GAME OF THE YEAR (Giants -3)
I'll take my chances here with the Giants laying just a field goal on the road against the Mark Sanchez led Redskins. It wasn’t that long ago Washington was on top the NFC East and thinking playoffs. Now that they have lost their top two quarterbacks, they know how this thing is going to end.
I’m also liking what I’ve seen from New York of late. Had the Giants not blown that 19-3 lead against the Eagles a couple weeks ago, they would be riding a 4-game winning streak and still very much alive at 5-7. I know the argument now is there’s nothing for them to play for, but I see no reason for them to not keep fighting and there’s definitely motivation here to get revenge against division rival.
The biggest thing for me is that I have a really hard time seeing that Redskins offense doing a whole lot with Sanchez under center. He attempted 21 passes and while he completed 13, it was for just 100 yards (4.8 yards/attempt). He also threw an interception and was sacked twice. Washington’s offense as a whole had just 235 yards and 90 of those came on one run by Adrian Peterson. Sanchez has made 6 starts the last 3 seasons and his team is both 1-5 SU and 1-5 ATS, and have been outscored by nearly 10.7 ppg.
It’s also worth noting that the Redskins defense has really struggled of late. In their last 3 games they are giving up 27.3 ppg and 386.7 ypg. Their weakness defensively this season has been defending the pass, but they are struggling against the run as well. They have allowed at least 130 rushing yards in each of their last 3. Look for rookie Saquon Barkley to have a big game and that should open up things for Eli Manning and OBJ in the passing game.
Giants have covered 5 straight road games and are a good team to back away from home when they are covering. New York is 34-16 ATS in their last 50 road games when they come in having covered 2 or more games in a row. Redskins are on short rest after playing on Monday Night Football last week and are a mere 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games when playing the Sunday after a MNF contest. They are also just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 against the NFC East. Give me the Giants -3!
|12-09-18||Falcons v. Packers -4||20-34||Win||100||21 h 13 m||Show|
40* NFL SITUATIONAL ATS MASSACRE (Packers -4)
I'll take my chances with Green Bay covering the short number here at home against the Falcons. A big reason for that is the fact that they fired McCarthy. A move I completely agree with given how this team has underperformed.
It just feels like anytime a head coach gets fired in the middle of the season, they come out and play one of their best games the next time they take the field. I think some of that is they feel responsible for their coach losing his job and they also realize their jobs are no longer safe, so there’s an urgency to perform well.
I also think that as long as Aaron Rodgers is starting and the Packers are mathematically still alive for a playoff spot, they are going to keep fighting. This team has been in this spot before with their backs against the wall and delivered, so they have no reason to not go out without a fight.
Another thing for me is I think this Atlanta's offense is broken right now. The Falcons haven’t reached the 20-point mark in any of their last 4 games. They have absolutely zero threat of a running game right now (52.8 ypg last 4) and last week against the Ravens were held to just 97 passing yards. I think offensive coordinator Greg Sarkisian is on his final straw and the bigger issue is the Falcons can’t protect Ryan. He’s been sacked 36 times in 12 games (previous high for a season is 44).
I personally have a hard time seeing them snapping out of that funk in this one. I just don’t like these dome teams playing on the road late in the year. The temperature for this game is expected to be in the mid to low 20s. That’s no fun to play in, especially for a team that’s not use to it and one that really has nothing to play for.
I know the Packers just lost as a big home favorite, but they are still 25-13 ATS with Rodgers at quarterback when the game is played at Lambeau Field and 23-13 in his last 36 as a home favorite.
Green Bay has also compiled an impressive 62-39 ATS record over the final 4 weeks of the regular season and are 9-3 ATS the last 3 seasons as a home favorite of 7-points or less. Give me the Packers -4!
|12-08-18||Navy +8 v. Army||Top||10-17||Win||100||5 h 45 m||Show|
50* ARMY/NAVY VEGAS SHARP MONEY TOP PLAY (Navy +8)
I'll gladly grab the touchdown plus with the Midshipmen. I just think this is too many points to pass up in a game that figures to be low scoring. I know the records are miles apart, but I don’t think there’s as big a gap in talent as a lot of people think.
I think a lot of people are going to fall into the trap of overreacting to the fact that Army’s only two losses were true road games against Duke and Oklahoma (lost in OT 28-21). The rest of their resume isn’t anything to get excited about and they easily could have lost a few more than they did.
Navy played the much tougher schedule and I think the Midshipmen showed some positives down the stretch. They went on the road and gave UCF a scare, losing by a final score of 35-24. They then knocked off Tulsa at home and nearly had that epic comeback last time out at Tulane.
I also think the roles are reversed here. Army has been the big underdog in this series for nearly two decades and now they are favored for the first since 2001. Underdog has covered the spread in this game 6 of the last 7 years and I don’t think it’s out of the question that we get our third straight underdog to win the game outright.
A lot of people are going to point to Navy’s defense as the big weakness that will allow the Black Knights to get the win and cover, but Army is a mere 11-25 ATS in there last 36 games vs teams who allow 34 or more points/game. Black Knights are also just 3-9 ATS last 12 vs a team with a losing record. Midshipmen are an impressive 23-7 ATS in their last 30 road games when they come in having lost 2 of their last 3. Give me Navy +8!
|12-06-18||Jaguars v. Titans -5||9-30||Win||100||10 h 24 m||Show|
40* TITANS/JAGUARS TNF ATS NO-BRAINER (Titans -5)
I'll take my chances here with the Titans at home, as there’s nothing about the Jags upset win over the Colts that makes me think it’s a sign of things to come.
The reality here is the Jaguars had no business winning a game where they totaled just 211 yards and 6 points. Had the Colts just kicked field goals instead of going for it on 4th down, they likely win the game outright. I also think Indianapolis’ offense is a bit out of sync with the injury to starting center Ryan Kelly, but either way they should have won that game.
I get that enough is enough for the Jaguars and wanting to go a different direction than Blake Bortles, but Cody Kessler is a downgrade at the position. Jacksonville is also running an out-dated offense with lackluster weapons outside of running back Leonard Fournette.
I just think given how hard it was for Jacksonville to get 1st downs at home against a mediocre Colts defense, they are going to have a horrible time putting up points against a really good Titans defense. Tennessee comes in ranked 3rd in the NFL, giving up just 315.6 ypg and are 6th in scoring defense, allowing only 20.4 ppg.
Let’s not forget when these two teams met up in Week 3, the Titans held Jacksonville to just 232 total yards and 12 first downs. Jags were without Fournette, but I don’t think he makes a huge difference with how little the Tennessee defense is going to have to respect the passing game with Kessler at quarterback.
You also can’t ignore just how big an advantage the home team has in these Thursday Night Games. These games are brutal on the road team and given how the Jags are basically playing for just pride with a 4-8 record, I wouldn’t be shocked at all if they didn’t show up at all for this game. Either way, I think this line should be closer to a touchdown and not a field goal.
Tennessee is 12-4-1 ATS last 17 home games, including a 7-3 record in their last 10 home games vs a team with a losing road record. Jags are just 1-5-2 ATS last 8 games overall and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 games on the road. Give me the Titans -5!
|12-03-18||Redskins +6 v. Eagles||13-28||Loss||-105||9 h 54 m||Show|
40* REDSKINS/EAGLES MNF ATS SLAUGHTER (Redskins +6)
I get the Eagles were able to rally to beat the Giants and all the talk is about how that win might have saved their season. I’m more focused on the fact that they let New York come into their house and take a 19-3 lead in a game they absolutely had to have.
I just think because the Eagles won it all last year and everyone thought they were going to be this juggernaut and defend their title, we are quick to look for any positive we can and ride with it. I mean they are almost a touchdown favorite at home with a record of 5-6 and having just failed to cover almost the exact same number at home last week against a worst team than the one they are playing.
The public has continued to back the Eagles to this point, so chances are they won’t stop now, especially with Washington playing now without Alex Smith. I like Smith and think he can help a team win a lot of regular-season games, but I don’t think he’s light years better than Colt McCoy.
McCoy did struggle some against Dallas, but that’s a really good Cowboys defense. The Eagles simply aren’t that good of a defensive team. They come in ranked 28th against the pass (294.4 ypg) and are giving up a ridiculous 134.6 rushing yards/game over their last 6 contests. I think Adrian Peterson will be ready to rock on Monday Night Football and Washington will be able to put up some points.
On the flip side of this, I think the Redskins defense is more than capable of slowing down this Eagles offensive attack. Philadelphia’s two highest scoring games this season have both come against the Giants. They haven’t scored more than 24 in any other game and 7 times have failed to score more than 21 points.
I think there’s a really good shot Washington can at worst keep this within 6-points. In fact, I think they are going to pull off the upset and win this game outright. Give me the Redskins +6.
|12-02-18||Chiefs v. Raiders OVER 55||40-33||Win||100||24 h 5 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Over 55)
|12-02-18||Panthers -3 v. Bucs||17-24||Loss||-125||91 h 20 m||Show|
40* NFL BLOCKBUSTER ATS NO-BRAINER (Panthers -3)
|12-02-18||Browns +6 v. Texans||Top||13-29||Loss||-115||21 h 59 m||Show|
50* NFL VEGAS AFC GAME OF THE MONTH (Browns +6)
|12-01-18||Fresno State -105 v. Boise State||19-16||Win||100||29 h 41 m||Show|
40* FRESNO ST/BOISE ST MWC TITLE GAME WINNER (Fresno St -105)
I'm going to take the Bulldogs on the money line in the MWC Title game against the Broncos.
The public is all over Boise State and I'm not the least bit surprised, seeing how they won the regular-season meeting at home and are basically a pick’em in the rematch. That only makes me like Fresno State that much more, as it just feels like the books are begging for you to take the Broncos (line keeps moving opposite of the public).
What a lot of people will overlook in Boise State’s 24-17 win at home over the Bulldogs back in early November is Fresno State had complete control of that game early. The Bulldogs had a 17-3 lead but Boise State scored touchdowns on each of their first 3 drives to start the 2nd half and that was all she wrote.
A lot of things went right for Boise State, as they converted on 10 of 16 3rd downs. A lot of those came on scrambles by quarterback Brett Rypien. My money is on Fresno State making the proper adjustments and getting off the field and allowing their offense a few more chances. I also think there’s a good possibility that the Bulldogs go better than 20% (2 of 10) on their 3rd down attempts.
I also think there’s a bit of an advantage here for Fresno State in that they have had the West Division locked up for a while and Boise State had to just lay everything on the line just to make it to this game. Revenge is a beautiful motivator in college football and I believe the Bulldogs are going to be celebrating a conference title on the blue turf this Saturday.
Fresno State is a 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games and a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog (2-pt favorite at Boise). Broncos are also just 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games at home, so that blue turf hasn’t been all that much help at covering the number. Give me Bulldogs!
|12-01-18||Memphis +3.5 v. Central Florida||Top||41-56||Loss||-115||70 h 6 m||Show|
50* NCAAF CONF CHAMPIONSHIP GAME OF THE YEAR (Memphis +3.5)
I’m going to take the Memphis Tigers +3.5 over the UCF Knights in the AAC Title game. I was already leaning toward taking the Tigers in this game prior to the injury to McKenzie Milton, so no way am I not taking Memphis as a dog without him on the field.
I have zero doubt that the Knights are going to play their hearts out in honor of Milton, but I don’t think they will be any more motivated than the Tigers. Memphis has has lost 7 games the last two seasons combined and 3 of them are against UCF.None more excruciating than the 31-30 home loss earlier this season, where they had a 30-14 lead, didn’t score in the 2nd half and botched the clock when they were driving for a potential game-winning field goal.
Sometimes teams can lose their edge when an opponent loses a player like Milton, but that’s not going to happen with the revenge that Memphis is playing with and a conference title on the line. They certainly didn’t let it affect them last week when they took on Houston without their star quarterback D’Eriq King.
I know there’s more to the Knights than Milton, but there’s no arguing the quarterback is the most important position on the field. When you go from a Heisman contender under center to a backup with little experience, more times than not things aren’t going to go well.
Darriel Mack Jr. will get the nod and he did start the win over ECU earlier this year and played the 2nd half last week against the Bulls. He’s arguably a better runner than Milton, but he’s only completed 49% of his pass attempts and hasn’t thrown a touchdown in 43 attempts.
Keep in mind that’s against two pretty bad defenses in USF and East Carolina, so hard to expect things to magically get better against MemphisI just don’t think the UCF defense will be able to hold up and you can count on the Tigers looking to score every time they touch the ball after blowing that big lead to UCF earlier this season.
I also think this Tigers team is riding a massive wave of momentum. It would have been easy for this team to just go through the motions after starting 1-3 in league play, but they rallied the troops and can win a title and finally put an end to this UCF winning streak.Give me the Tigers +3.5!
|12-01-18||UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 44.5||27-25||Loss||-102||22 h 17 m||Show|
40* C-USA CHAMPIONSHIP TOTAL KNOCKOUT (Under 44.5)
I'll gladly take the UNDER 44.5 in this one. I just think given the matchup and the familiarity with preparing for the same team two weeks in a row, is going to lead to a defensive battle.
I know homefield was on the line, but I really think UAB was playing possum in that game last week. I mean the Blazers finished the game with 89 total yards and were outgained by 300. I think to them it was more valuable to lose that game and now show Middle Tennessee anything that might help them win this week.
I certainly don’t expect the Blue Raiders to pile on 27 points and for Brent Stockstill to go 22 of 29 for 261 yards and 2 scores. UAB’s defense is much better than that. In fact, they are 8th in the country in total defense, giving up just 387.2 ypg and are 7th nationally in defending the pass (166.3 ypg).
I also think that Middle Tennessee offense could be negated some by Mother Nature, as there’s a decent chance for rain in the forecast and winds are expecting to be blowing at least 20 mph.
On the flip side of this, I also don’t think the Blazers offense is going to be able to a lot here. UAB is pretty one-dimensional with the run, as they average almost twice as many rush attempts (44) as they do pass attempts (25). That’s going to make it tough sledding here against a talented Middle Tennessee defensive front. Blue Raiders are giving up 25.2 ppg on the season, but only 18.4 ppg in conference play and just 17.4 ppg at home.
UNDER is 9-2 in Middle Tennessee’s 11 home games over the last two seasons and a perfect 6-0 in the 6 games played in the 2nd half of the season. UNDER is also 9-2 in the Blazer’s last 11 road games, 7-1 in their last 8 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 in their last 5 off a SU loss. Give me the UNDER 44.5!
|11-30-18||Northern Illinois v. Buffalo -3.5||30-29||Loss||-103||9 h 56 m||Show|
40* MAC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME ATS NO-BRAINER (Buffalo -3.5)
I'll take my chances with the Bulls here, even though the public is pounding them. I just think Buffalo is hands down the more talented team and that’s no disrespect to Northern Illinois. I think the numbers really speak for themselves. They remind me a lot of FAU last year in terms of how the books could just never catchup to them.
Buffalo outscored opponents in conference play by 10.9 ppg and outgained them by 88.1 ypg. Northern Illinois outscored opponents by 5.3 ppg and outgained them by 38 ypg. Some might want to point to that ugly loss for the Bulls down the stretch to Ohio (who lost to Northern Illinois), but note that the Bulls were in a position to lose that game and still win the division in a very favorable matchup with Bowling Green.
The biggest thing for me is I just don’t think Northern Illinois’ offense can keep pace in this one. Buffalo has shown they are capable of annihilating defenses if they aren’t ready. They got a special player in junior quarter back Tyree Jackson and a potent 1-2 punch out of the backfield in Jaret Patterson and Kevin Marks, who have combined for 1,607 yards and 23 touchdowns (Jackson also has 7 rushing touchdowns).
It’s going to take a perfect game-plan here for the Huskies just to keep this game competitive. I also think people are sleeping on Buffalo head coach Lance Leipold and his ability to guide his team to victory in big games. The guy went 109-6 in 8 years at Div III power Wisconsin-Whitewater, playing for the national championship in 7 of those 8 years and winning it 6 times.
Bulls are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games against MAC opponent, while Northern Illinois is a mere 4-16-1 ATS in their last 21 games played on a neutral site and 0-6 ATS in their 6 games under head coach Rod Carey as a neutral site underdog. Give me the Bulls -3.5!
|11-29-18||Saints v. Cowboys +8||Top||10-13||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
50* SAINTS/COWBOYS TNF VEGAS SHARP TOP PLAY (Cowboys +8)
I'll gladly take my chances here with Dallas as an 8-point dog. As difficult as it can be to bet into a streak like the one the Saints are riding with 8 straight covers, you know there’s value going against a streak like that, as the public won’t be able to help themselves. At this point, it doesn’t matter what the number is, they are taking New Orleans.
They were very fortunate to get a cover last week against the Falcons. They just squeaked by the number, winning by 14 as a 13-point favorite and Atlanta really beat themselves. The Falcons had 4 turnovers, two in the red-zone and actually outgained the Saints 366-312.
That’s now 9 forced turnovers in the Saints last 3 games, but now they go up against a Cowboys team that really values the football. Dallas hasn’t turned it over in 3 straight games. A big reason for that is they have got Elliott and the running game going. In their last 3 games the Cowboys are averaging 149.7 rushing yards per game and in this stretch have put up 26.7 ppg and 379 ypg. Quite a big difference from the 21.3 ppg and 334 ypg they average for the season as a whole.
I believe the addition of Cooper is definitely a factor that has helped the running game. Prior to adding him there really wasn’t anyone the defenses had to be worried about in the passing game. I mean the guy has played 4 games and is third on the team with 349 receiving yards and his 3 TD catches are tops on the roster.
I think with Dallas’ ability to run the football and keep the ball out of Drew Brees’ hands, it only increases the likelihood that the Cowboys can keep this within a touchdown. I actually think Dallas has a legit shot at winning this game outright. Chances are the Saints are going to slip up at least one more time and the Cowboys have won 4 of 5 on their home field.
We also see that New Orleans is a mere 5-15 ATS last 20 road games after 3 straight games scoring 25 or more points, while Dallas is 35-19 ATS last 54 home games when they come in having won 3 of their last 4. Give me the Cowboys +8!
|11-26-18||Titans v. Texans -3.5||17-34||Win||100||9 h 22 m||Show|
40* TITANS/TEXANS MNF ATS ANNIHILATOR (Texans -3.5)
I'll take my chances here with Houston to win by 4 or more at home against the Titans. I know the Texans keep finding themselves in close games, which might have some thinking to take the points, but I just can't stomach betting an offense like Tennessee on the road in a prime time game against a defense as talented as the Texans.
What this line suggest is that these two would be a pick'em if the game was played on a neutral field. I have Houston rated way ahead of the Titans, as I think the days of consistently winning games with your defense are numbered. Tennessee has two games this year where they failed to reach 85 yards passing. They had just 176 last week at Indy and that's not a top-tier secondary.
Houston comes in 13th against the pass and are 6th against the run. While they scored 20 in the previous meeting between these two teams back in Week 2, they scored on a 66-yard pass on a fake punt and had just 283 total yards for the game (Houston had 437). Titans only averaging 16.3 ppg and 297 ypg on the road.
Houston is averaging 25.7 ppg and 383 ypg at home. I just think they will have the much easier time scoring and there's a much higher chance they win by a touchdown than lose or win by 3 or less. Give me the Texans!
|11-25-18||Seahawks v. Panthers -3||Top||30-27||Loss||-119||91 h 16 m||Show|
50* NFL -NFC- GAME OF THE YEAR (Panthers -3)
We have a talented Carolina team coming off back-to-back road losses laying a short number at home in a game we know they are going to give max effort.
Not to mention the Panthers have been outstanding at home this season. Perfect 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS at home. Seattle comes in at 5-5 and are a respectable 3-3 on the road, but one was a neutral site game against the Raiders and the other two were at Detroit and Arizona, two of the bottom feeders in the NFC.
I just think Seattle is getting a little too much love from those two close losses to the Rams, as well as the fact that they are fresh off that win at home against Green Bay in a prime time matchup. One thing you have to keep in mind with the victory against the Packers is just how big an advantage the home team has in those Thursday games and Green Bay was running on fumes.
The Packers went to LA in Week 8 to face the Rams, then traveled across the country to take on New England in Week 9. They hosted the Dolphins and had to turn right back around and go out west for that game on 3 days rest. I think if Seattle was as good as this line is suggesting, they would have won by a lot more in that spot.
Another thing with Seattle, is this is not an ideal matchup for them. The Seahawks have really transformed their running game this year. They are 1st in the NFL at 154.3 ypg, compared to 27th in passing (219.2 ypg). Carolina has the 8th ranked run defense, giving up just 98.5 ypg and it's even more stingy at home, where they are only giving up 79 ypg.
On the flip side of this, the Panthers are also built on their running game, as they come in 7th in the league at 130.2 ypg. Seattle is 17th against the run, allowing 111.5 ypg and they are giving up a healthy 4.9 yards/carry.
I also want to point out I don't think this Seahawks defense is as good as the numbers say they are. I think they are sugar-coated a bit from a pretty favorable schedule outside of their two games against the Rams.
Panthers are 30-19 ATS under head coach Ron Rivera in home games against fellow NFC opponents. They are also 13-3 ATS under Rivera when coming off back-to-back games where they failed to cover the spread and 9-1 ATS under Rivera when coming off an upset loss as a road favorite. Give me Carolina -3!
|11-25-18||49ers v. Bucs OVER 54||9-27||Loss||-110||20 h 49 m||Show|
40* NFL OVER/UNDER TOTAL NO-BRAINER (OVER 54)
I'll take my chances here with these two teams eclipsing the total here. I think the only thing that could keep these two from combining for at least 55 points is mother nature and she's going to be in a good mood Sunday with temps in the mid 70's, no chance of rain and barely any wind.
The OVER is 8-2 in games involving the Bucs this year and it's really not hard to figure out why. Tampa Bay leads the NFL in total offense at 458.5 ypg and are also 1st in passing at 374.6 ypg. They are 3rd in scoring (26.7 ppg), though it's scary to think what they could average without all the turnovers. That offense is backed up big one of the league's worst defenses, which is giving up 32.9 ppg and 395.9 ypg.
49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is a brilliant offensive-mind and I'm pretty confident he's going to have Mullens ready to shred this Bucs defense. Not to mention there's no reason not to let Mullens air it out with a 2-8 record. They got their franchise QB in Jimmy G, so no need to tank. Best case would be Mullens shines and you can trade him for draft picks.
If these two defenses simply play to form we are good, as the 49ers are giving up 28.4 ppg and the Bucs allow 32.9. That puts us around 60. I think we easily hit that and there's a chance this thing good push 70. Give me the OVER 54!
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