|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-17-19||Patriots v. Eagles UNDER 45||17-10||Win||100||45 h 2 m||Show|
4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Patriots/Eagles under 45 -101
I like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's Super Bowl rematch from two years ago, as the Eagles host the Patriots. I just think this is going to be a defensive struggle. I know New England's defense didn't look great in their last game against the Ravens. Some will say that's because they finally played a legit quarterback. Part of that is true. Lamar Jackson is an absolute nightmare to defend. He's the one guy that can still beat a defense even when they do everything right.
Not to take anything away from Carson Wentz, but he just doesn't pose the same threat. Add in how motivated New England is going to be coming off that poor showing and that they have had two weeks to prepare off their bye, I expect them to return to that elite form we saw in their first 8 games.
As for the Patriots offense, I think some of the struggles we saw against the Ravens could linger on, especially on the road against a talented defense like the Eagles, which feels like it's getting better as the season progresses.
Under is 16-5 in New England's last 21 road games when listed as a favorite and a perfect 6-0 in their last 6 off an upset loss as a road favorite. Eagles are also off a bye and the UNDER is 23-10 in their last 33 off a bye. It's also 9-2 in their last 11 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take the UNDER!
|11-17-19||Jaguars +3 v. Colts||Top||13-33||Loss||-120||53 h 37 m||Show|
5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120
Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye.
Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs.
Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going.
Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville!
|11-17-19||Jets v. Redskins UNDER 38.5||34-17||Loss||-102||42 h 37 m||Show|
3* NFL - Over/Under Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Jets/Redskins under 38½ -102
Don't be scared away of the low total here. In fact, I think we are getting some decent value here with the UNDER at this price. The Jets 34-point outburst last week was simply a result of playing an awful Giants defense. The Redskins might be a bad team, but the defense has been more than respectable, especially given how much they are on the field.
Washington's defense should also have one of it's better performances coming off of their bye and playing at home. Prior to going off against the other New York team, the Jets had topped 20 points just once in their first 8 games.
Speaking of offenses that can't score. The Redskins have gone 7 straight games with 17 or fewer points and have failed to top 10 points in 5 of those games. It's not going to get any better with Dwayne Haskins at quarterback. He's just not ready, but at this point Washington really has nothing to lose throwing him out there.
UNDER is 13-3 in the Redskins last 16 home games in the 2nd half of the season vs bad teams that are getting outscored by 6+ points/game. UNDER is also 20-8 in the Jets last 28 on the road in the 2nd half vs team that allow 350+ yards/game. Take the UNDER!
|11-14-19||Steelers v. Browns -2.5||Top||7-21||Win||100||35 h 24 m||Show|
5* NFL - Steelers/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns -2½ -119
The Browns cashed as a similarly priced 2.5-point favorite in this past Sunday's 19-16 win at Buffalo. While Cleveland did need a late score to get the win and cover, they could have put that game away early had they not turned it over on downs after having a 1st & Goal from the 1-yard line.
Sometimes it's not about how you win and I think that's the case, as the Browns just needed something positive to happen. This is a much better team than their 3-6 record would suggest. On the flip side, I think this is a good spot to fade Pittsburgh after their big win at home over the Rams. I just don't think the Steelers are as good as their 5-4 record and these Thursday Night games are brutal on the road teams.
Teams off an upset win as a home dog that are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are just 3-22 (12%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half the season if facing a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland!
|11-11-19||Seahawks v. 49ers -6||27-24||Loss||-109||108 h 19 m||Show|
4* NFL - Seahawks/49ers MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on 49ers -6 -109
The public is all over Seattle getting close to a touchdown on the road, but I really like the 49er to lay it on the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. San Francisco is one of the most complete teams in the league and there's not many teams they want to beat more than Seattle, as these two have formed quite the rivalry over the last decade.
Most are just assuming Russell Wilson will do enough here to keep Seattle within the number, but it's been near impossible to throw the ball with any kind of success against this 49ers defense. In San Francisco's last 6 games they are giving up a mere 108 passing/yards game.
I could see Wilson throwing for 200 yards here, but I just don't think they will be able to score enough here. People like to overlook how poorly this Seahawks defense is playing. Seattle has allowed 28 or more in 4 of their last 5 games and the only exception game against Atlanta without Matt Ryan. 49ers are averaging 35.3 ppg at home this season. Take San Francisco!
|11-11-19||Seahawks v. 49ers OVER 47||Top||27-24||Win||100||66 h 25 m||Show|
5* NFL - Seahawks/49ers NFC West TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Seahawks/49ers over 47 -109
I look for these two teams to easily combine for at least 50 points an cover the total set by the books. Everyone likes to talk about the 49ers defense and rightfully so, but SF is averaging an impressive 35.3 ppg. That offense will be without George Kittle tonight, but they are getting back left tackle Joe Staley and fullback Kyle Juszczyk.
I look for San Francisco to run the ball at will here and that's going to open up the opportunities for some big passing plays. I think the 49ers will easily score 30+ points here against a Seattle defense that has allowed 28 or more in 4 of their last 5. That means all we need is for the Seahawks to score around 18-20 to have us safely over the mark. I'm pretty confident Russell Wilson and that group can give us that.
OVER is 41-18 in the Seahawks last 59 vs strong defensive teams that are giving up 17 or less points/game and 6-0 in their last 6 vs strong rushing teams that average 4.5+ yards/carry. OVER has also cashed in 4 of San Fran's last 5 division games and 8 out of their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!
|11-10-19||Rams v. Steelers +3.5||12-17||Win||100||80 h 29 m||Show|
3* NFL - Situational DOG OF THE DAY on Steelers +3½ -105
I like the value here with the Steelers as a home dog. I just think we are seeing the Rams way overvalued here coming off their bye having won and covered each of their last two. I just don't get the hype over LA's last two wins, as they were against two awful teams in the Falcons and Bengals.
They aren't going to find it so easy moving the ball against this Steelers defense, which has really carried this team back into contention. They have been really good against the pass and I believe if you can make it difficult on Jared Goff and not let him get into a rhythm, this offense struggles to score, especially with how they are running the ball. Rams are only averaging 97 yards/game on the ground and have eclipsed the 100 yard mark just once in their last 6 games.
Steelers are 7-2-2 ATS last 11 off a SU win and 8-2 ATS last 10 off a cover. Rams are also just 13-29 ATS last 42 vs teams who have a +1 per game turnover margin or better. Steelers have forced 3 or more turnovers in 4 straight games and at least two in 7 straight. Take Pittsburgh!
|11-10-19||Ravens -10 v. Bengals||49-13||Win||100||77 h 4 m||Show|
3* NFL - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER on Ravens -10 +100
I got no problem here laying double-digits on the road with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore has won 4 straight and are coming off a 17-point win at home against the Patriots. The Bengals haven't won a game all season and it's got so bad in Cincinnati they are benching Andy Dalton in favor of rookie Ryan Finley.
I just don't think it's going to get any better offensively with Finley under center. Andy Dalton wasn't great in the Bengals first 8 games, but he's not the reason they have one of the worst offenses in the league. Bengals have eclipsed 17 points just once in their last 7 games. With the way defenses are struggling to contain Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense, I just don't see Cincinnati keeping this close.
Ravens are 12-1 ATS in the 2nd half of the season in their last 13 road games vs awful defensive teams that are giving up 375+ yards/game. On the flip side of this, Bengals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs good offensive teams that are averaging 350+ yards/game. Take Baltimore!
|11-10-19||Giants -3 v. Jets||27-34||Loss||-100||35 h 9 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Giants -3 +100
You won't see me laying points on the road with a 2-7 team often, but this isn't really a road game for the Giants, as they share MetLife Stadium with the Jets. I just think the Jets are a dumpster fire right now and it's not going to get any better.
Sam Darnold and this Jets offense has been atrocious in their last 3 games. Darnold is playing without absolute no confidence right now. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 8 interceptions. It's not just all on Darnold. New York has only eclipsed 20 points once this season, scoring 16 or fewer in all but 2 games. That's why I'm not overly concerned with how the Giants defense has struggled.
Also, when it's going bad for the Jets, it's a good idea to keep fading them. They are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a contest having lost 4 of their last 5. Jets are also 5-15 ATS last 20 in the 2nd half of the season vs teams that allow 375 or more yards/game, while Giants are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games vs teams allowing 350 or more yards/game. Take the Giants!
|11-04-19||Cowboys v. Giants +7||Top||37-18||Loss||-115||36 h 57 m||Show|
5* NFL - Cowboys/Giants MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants +7 -115
I love the value here with New York getting a TD at home against the Cowboys. No question this line is inflated in favor of Dallas, as they are a massive public team and the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league right now at 2-6.
Dallas also getting a ton due to the fact that they went into their bye off a dominating 37-10 win at home over the Eagles and due to the fact they whooped the Giants at home 35-17 in Week 1. Thing is that was with Eli Manning at quarterback and without their top wide out Golden Tate. Daniel Jones is definitely an upgrade of Eli and I think this offense will be able to do enough to cover this spread.
Cowboys are just 6-16 ATS last 22 road game soff a home win by 21 or more points and the Giants are a dominant 17-3 ATS last 20 after giving up 17 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take New York!
|11-03-19||Patriots v. Ravens +3.5||Top||20-37||Win||100||12 h 3 m||Show|
5* NFL- Pats/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ravens +3½ -115
I know the Patriots have looked unbeatable threw the first half of the season, but you just can't ignore how easy the schedule has been. Their last 7 games have come against the Browns, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Buffalo is the only one of those teams with a winning record.
Note that while they beat the Bills 16-10, they should have probably lost. Buffalo had a 375 to 224 edge in total yards and 23 first downs to the Pats 11. This Ravens team is the best that NE will have seen all season. Lamar Jackson's ability to make plays with his legs is the one thing you can't defend for and I think we see the NE defense struggle for the first time this season. Also, big edge playing at home in a prime time game like this.
Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg are just 18-52 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more. Take Baltimore!
|11-03-19||Jets v. Dolphins +3.5||18-26||Win||100||5 h 41 m||Show|
4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins +3½ -120
As difficult as it may be to bet on a team at this price that doesn't have a win, I really like the value with Miami on Sunday. This is not the same Dolphins team that wasn't trying early in the season. They have really been playing hard and enter having covered 3 straight.
Jets are a complete mess right now. The ghosts that Sam Darnold started seeing against the Patriots were also in Jacksonville, as Darnold threw 3 more picks and was sacked 8 times by the Jaguars. Not only is he struggling, but there's beef within the locker room and how management handled the attempt to trade safety Jamal Adams. No team wants to go 0-16 and I think we get a big effort here from the Dolphins and they get that first win of 2019. Take Miami!
|11-03-19||Colts v. Steelers -105||24-26||Win||100||5 h 40 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Steelers -105
I'm just not buying into the Colts 5-2 start and feel like we are getting exceptional value here with Pittsburgh as a pick'em at home. Indianapolis could just as easily by 2-5 as they are 5-2. All 7 games they have played in having been decided by 7-points or less. it's the 8th time this has happened since the merger and they are the only one of those to have more than 4 wins.
Steelers weren't overly impressive in their MNF win over the Dolphins and just aren't getting a lot of love with Mason Rudolph at quarterback. I think that offense is better than they get credit for, but I really like how this Steelers defense is playing. They have forced at least 2 turnovers in each of their last 6 games with 3 or more in each of their last 3. They are also really good against the run and I think slowing down the ground game is the best way to keep Indy's offense in check. Take Pittsburgh!
|10-31-19||49ers -10 v. Cardinals||Top||28-25||Loss||-109||29 h 39 m||Show|
5* NFL - 49ers/Cardinals TNF ATS NO-BRAINER on 49ers -10 -109
Usually I wouldn't lay a big number like this on the road in a division matchup, but I just think the 49ers are going to win here easily. This San Francisco defensive front is unreal and are making it near impossible for opposing teams to throw on them. 49ers rank No. 1 in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 128.7 ypg.
Arizona is down starting running back David Johnson and backup Chase Edmonds, which forced them to make a trade with the Dolphins for Kenyan Drake. I don't see the Cardinals being able to have the kind of success running the ball needed to keep this 49ers defense honest.
Last week the Cardinals had just 40 rushing yards and 197 passing yards against a good Saints defense. 49ers should score into the 20's here and easily win this game by 14-plus points. Take San Francisco!
|10-27-19||Packers -4 v. Chiefs||Top||31-24||Win||100||49 h 13 m||Show|
5* NFL - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Packers -4 -105
No reason to overthink this one. This is too good a price to pass up with Green Bay given the circumstances. Kansas City will not have the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes and if you watched the offense last week with Matt Moore after Mahomes went down, it's night and day. I get we are seeing almost a 7-point swing with Mahomes out, but I feel he's worth more than that.
It's also not just Mahomes that the Chiefs are missing. They are unlikely to have star defensive tackle Chris Jones, corner Kendall Fuller and edge rusher Frank Clark. I get the defense played well against the Broncos, but Denver's offense is a complete mess with how bad Flacco is playing.
I don't see the Chiefs defense being able to slow down Aaron Rodgers on Sunday and I could see this getting out of hand early. It just feels like a throw away game for KC with Mahomes out. Take Green Bay!
|10-27-19||Raiders +7 v. Texans||24-27||Win||100||45 h 18 m||Show|
4* NFL - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on Raiders +7 -115
The Raiders are definitely worth a look here at this price. Oakland's not a team that gets a lot of love to start with, while Houston is a pretty decent public play with how much the public likes Deshaun Watson. Add in the Raiders coming in off an ugly looking 42-24 loss to the Packers and I don't think there's any doubt this line is inflated.
However, a closer look at the box score shows the Raiders were a lot more competitive than that final against Green Bay. In fact, Oakland outgained the Packers 484 to 481. They had two times where they had 1st and goal and didn't score a point an another turnover in the redzone. Gruden has this team going in the right direction and I not only think they can cover, but win this game outright. Take Oakland!
|10-27-19||Browns +11.5 v. Patriots||13-27||Loss||-115||6 h 21 m||Show|
3* NFL - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Browns +11½ -115
Cleveland is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Patriots. I just think we are seeing New England way overvalued coming off that dominating performance against the Jets, where they made Sam Darnold see ghosts.
Most just assume that Cleveland will have no shot of keeping this close, but I think they not only keep it within the number, I think they give NE a real scare here. Browns have a massive edge in rest, as they will be coming off their bye, while the Patriots are on a short week after playing on MNF.
Favorites of 10.5 or more that are outgaining opponents by 1.75 or more yards/pass attempt are just 15-39 (28%) ATS if off 2 straight games holding a team to 5.5 or fewer yards/pass attempts. Take Cleveland!
|10-27-19||Bengals v. Rams UNDER 48||10-24||Win||100||42 h 56 m||Show|
3* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bengals/Rams under 48 -110
I look for the Bengals and Rams to stay UNDER the mark set by the books in Sunday's action at Wembley Stadium in London. For two teams to combine for a total this high, you need production from both offenses.
I don't think we are going to get that. Cincinnati's offense has scored 17 or fewer in 5 of their last 6 games and a big reason for those offensive struggles is they can't run the ball. Bengals are dead last in the NFL, averaging a mere 53.1 ypg on the ground.
A lot of people questioned the Rams moves to send Peters away and bring in Jalen Ramsey. Hard to argue with the results in their first game with Ramsey, as they held the Falcons to just 10 points and 224 total yards.
Another key factor here that should help both defenses is the familiarity with the offensive schemes, as Bengals new head coach Zac Taylor came over from LA and is trying to run the same schemes he learned under McVay. Take the UNDER!
|10-21-19||Patriots v. Jets +10||33-0||Loss||-110||12 h 24 m||Show|
4* NFL - Pats/Jets MNF ATS NO-BRAINER on Jets +10 -110
This is too good a price to pass up with New York at home. The Jets looked like a different team with Sam Darnold under center last week, as they upset the Cowboys 24-22 as a 7-point home dog. New York isn't just going into MNF thinking they can keep it close, they believe they can win outright.
These two already played back in Week 3, which the Patriots won 30-14. New England only won by 16 and Luke Faulk started that game for the Jets. Tom Brady threw for 306 yards in that win, but the Pats only man aged 68 rushing yards on 27 attempts (2.5 yards/carry). Brady completed 30 of 42 pass attempts. Of those 30, 18 were to Rex Burkhead, Phillip Dorsett and Josh Gordon. Both Burkhead and Gordon are out and Dorsett is questionable. There was also concern Edelman might not play and he had 7 of the other 12 receptions.
I look for this to be a low-scoring game, which definitely adds to the value here with New York at this price. Jets have covered 24 of their last 35 at home against good teams that are outscoring opponents by 6+ ppg and 7-1-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take New York!
|10-20-19||Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 50||10-37||Win||100||52 h 16 m||Show|
3* NFL - Eagles/Cowboys SNF HEAVY HITTER on Eagles/Cowboys under 50 -110
We are getting great value on the UNDER as the books always inflate the number on the total in these prime time games. You also got two division rivals that are very familiar with one another. Last 5 games in the series have all finished with fewer than 50 points in regulation.
Cowboys offense has hit a road block as they have taken a step up in competition and I just don't see them doing a lot against that talented Eagles front that is outstanding against the run. Key here is that Dallas is a pretty good defensive team. They are in the top half of the league against both the run and the pass. Take UNDER!
|10-20-19||Saints v. Bears -3||Top||36-25||Loss||-120||48 h 22 m||Show|
5* NFL - Saints/Bears NFC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bears -3 -120
It's been an impressive run for New Orleans behind Teddy Bridgewater while Drew Brees recovers from a thumb injury, but I don't see the Saints winning in Chicago on Sunday. While they have been winning games, it's not because Bridgewater is lighting up defenses.
He certainly isn't going to light up this Bears defense, which is No. 6 in total defense and No. 3 in scoring defense. Making matters even worse, New Orleans will be without star running back Alvin Kamara.
Bears will be getting Trubisky back from injury and I think we are going to see a little more offense out of Chicago out of the bye week. Bears are a lot closer to being 5-0 than they get credit for. They are 7-0-1 ATS last 8 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 12-4 ATS last 16 vs other NFC teams. Take Chicago!
|10-20-19||Ravens v. Seahawks -3||30-16||Loss||-107||48 h 22 m||Show|
4* NFL - Non-Conf GAME OF THE WEEK on Seahawks -3 -107
No way I'm passing up on the Seahawks as a slim 3-point home favorite against the Ravens. Seattle is 5-1 to start the year and have won 3 straight. Russell Wilson looks like the front runner for the MVP with Mahomes banged up and yet it doesn't feel like this Seahawks team is getting any love.
I look for Wilson to have a huge game against a suspect Ravens secondary and you know he wants to get the better of former Seahawk safety Earl Thomas. Baltimore ranks in the bottom 10 of the league against the pass, as opposing QB's are completing 61% and averaging 7.7 yards/attempt.
Favorites off 2 straight games with 50 or more points scored are 35-12 (75%) ATS the last 10 seasons in games where both defenses are struggling (allowing 23-27 ppg). Take the Seattle!
|10-20-19||Cardinals +3.5 v. Giants||27-21||Win||100||45 h 57 m||Show|
4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Cardinals +3½ -115
I just don't trust this Giants team and feel they are getting a little too much love because of the media hype around Daniel Jones. Not to mention NY is expected to get back Saquon Barkley. The problem that keeps getting overlooked with the Giants is the defense.
New York is 31st out of 32 teams against the pass, giving up 285 yards/game. They also rank in the bottom 10 (24th) against the run, allowing 127.3 ypg. That defense is going up against a confident rookie QB in Kyler Murray, who has guided the Cardinals to back-to-back wins.
Giants are 1-9 ATS at home in the 1st half of the season over the last 3 years. They are just 8-19 ATS last 27 off a road loss by 21 or more. Cardinals are 12-3 ATS last 15 games with a total of 49.5 or more. Take Arizona!
|10-20-19||Jaguars v. Bengals UNDER 44.5||27-17||Win||100||45 h 56 m||Show|
4* NFL - AFC Over/Under TOTAL OF THE WEEK on Jaguars/Bengals under 44½ -110
I don't see these two teams coming close to the total posted by the books. As much as we keep hearing about Minshew Mania you would think the Jags are scoring 30+ points/game. Their season high for a game is 23 and that was against the Cardinals.
I know the Bengals defense isn't great, but they are at home and I think this team truly wants to win a game unlike some other tanking teams. They have come close. Cincinnati is 0-6 with 4 loss by less than a touchdown. I think they keep the Jags in check and at the same time the Jacksonville defense should have no problem keeping the Bengals in check.
UNDER is 8-1 in the Jags last 9 off an upset loss as a favorite and 10-1 in their last 11 after failing to cover 2 of the last 3. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 vs awful defensive teams that are giving up 6 or more yards/play. Take the UNDER 44.5!
|10-14-19||Lions +4 v. Packers||22-23||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
4* NFL - Lions/Packers MNF NO-BRAINER on Lions +4 -110
I think we are getting some big time value here with Detroit catching more than a field goal. The betting public just assumes an Aaron Rodgers led team can't lose at home in a prime time game, but the Lions have won 4 straight in the series and have won 3 of their last 4 trips to Green Bay.
Packers defense has been one of the more improved units in the league, but I don't know that it's as good as people think. Also, the offense hasn't been lighting up the scoreboard. Green Bay has just 1 game this season where they have thrown for more than 235 yards. They also have finished with fewer than 80 yards rushing in 3 of 5 games.
Detroit is a team that gets little to no respect, but I really like what Matt Patricia is doing with this team. They won at Philadelphia and should have beat the Chiefs at home. They will be ready to go here coming off a bye. Wouldn't be surprised at all to see the Lions win this outright. Give me Detroit +4!
|10-13-19||Cowboys v. Jets +7.5||22-24||Win||100||54 h 25 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas ATS SHOCKER on Jets +7½ -115
This is just too good a price to pass up on the Jets. I think the public perception is that the Cowboys will bounce back against a bad team after a couple of bad losses to New Orleans and Green Bay. I just don't think that's going to be the case. I think there's some pretty clear flaws with that Cowboys offense.
As for the Jets, you have to take their 0-4 start and factor in they didn't have starting quarterback Sam Darnold for 3 of those games. Not only that, but they were quickly down to their No. 3 starter and it was a massive drop off. Darnold will put more pressure on the defense, which should allow Le'Veon Bell to be a bigger factor.
Cowboys are just 6-18 ATS last 24 road games vs bad offensive teams (avg. 258 or less ypg). Jets are also 7-1-1 ATS last 9 at home against a team with a .500 or better record on the road. Take New York!
|10-13-19||49ers v. Rams -3||20-7||Loss||-120||54 h 5 m||Show|
4* NFL - 49ers/Rams NFC West NO-BRAINER on Rams -3 -120
Love the value here with the Rams laying only a field goal at home against the 49ers. I know Todd Gurley is questionable, but with or without him I think LA gets the job done at home.
A lot of people are jumping on the 49ers bandwagon after that impressive 31-3 win over Cleveland on Monday Night Football. SF is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS. However, they have played a relatively easy schedule.
Their worst offensive performance came in Week 1 against Tampa Bay, when they struggled to run the ball. Finished with just 98 yards on 32 attempts. Rams have been pretty solid against th run, especially at home, where they are allowing just 72 ypg and 2.9 yards/carry. Also, 49ers run game figures to take a huge hit with the loss of fullback Kyle Juszczyk. When Juszczyk got hurt in that Browns game, the SF's offense did not look the same. Take Los Angeles!
|10-13-19||Redskins v. Dolphins UNDER 42||Top||17-16||Win||100||51 h 0 m||Show|
5* NFL - Non-Conf TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Redskins/Dolphins under 42 -104
I love the UNDER in Week 6's matchup between two of the worst teams in the league. You got the 0-5 Redskins facing off against the 0-4 Dolphins. While both of these defenses have given up a lot of points, these are two horrible offensive teams.
Miami comes in averaging 6.5 ppg and 225 ypg. The Redskins aren't that much better at 14.6 ppg and 281 ypg. Key here is I think we get a big effort here defensively from both teams as both know this is going to be one of their rare opportunities for a win in 2019. I also think we get a big effort from the Dolphins coming off a bye and Washington should play harder than normal after watching their head coach get fired.
UNDER is 31-16 in the Redskins last 47 games off a road loss by 10 or more and 8-1 in their last 9 when off a loss of 14 or more. UNDER is also a perfect 7-0 in the Dolphins last 7 off a loss by 14 or more. Take the UNDER!
|10-13-19||Redskins v. Dolphins +3.5||17-16||Win||100||51 h 59 m||Show|
3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Dolphins +3½ -110
As bad as the Dolphins have looked to start out the 2019 season, I have to take my chances with Miami covering as a 3.5-point home dog against Washington. There's no way this Redskins team should be favored on the road against any team in the league right now.
Washington just fired head coach Jay Gruden and might be without two starters on the offensive line, as both Donald Penn and Brandon Scherff are both questionable. Keep in mind they are still without star left tackle Trent Williams who is holding out.
Miami clearly is in rebuilding mode, but there's no way the players aren't going to try to give their best effort for a win. I think we get one of their best efforts all season at home coming off a bye against a team they know they can beat. Let's overlook that the Dolphins have played 4 potential playoff teams in the Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys and Chargers. Take Miami!
|10-13-19||Eagles +3 v. Vikings||20-38||Loss||-100||51 h 59 m||Show|
4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Eagles +3 +104
I like the Eagles to go into Minnesota and come away with a win, making them an easy play at +3. I just think there's a lot more flaws with this Vikings team than people realize. They are 3-2, but their 3 wins are against the Falcons, Raiders and Giants.
Kirk Cousin has not looked good outside of that game against a bad Giants defense. When this team has faced a good defense they have not done much. They had just 16 points against Green Bay and managed a mere 6 against the Bears.
Eagles defense has been spotty, but most of their problems have come against the pass. In fact, they lead the league in run defense, giving up just 63 yards/game. If Minnesota can't run the ball they are in serious trouble. Wentz and the Eagles offense won't have to do much to get the win. Take Philadelphia!
|10-07-19||Browns +4 v. 49ers||3-31||Loss||-115||107 h 30 m||Show|
4* NFL - Browns/49ers MNF VEGAS INSIDER on Browns +4 -115
The Browns are definitely worth a look here getting more than a field goal against the 49ers. San Francisco is overvalued after their 3-0 start. 49ers are improved, but also haven't really been tested.
Their last two wins were against the Mason Rudolph led Steelers, which they were lucky to win, and the Bengals, who are now 0-5. Their 31-17 win over the Bucs in Week 1 looks decent, but they were actually outgained 295 to 256. Difference in the game was they had two interceptions returned for scores.
Browns had that ugly 43-13 loss at home to the Titans and people were quick to jump off the bandwagon. They have won 2 of their last 3 since with the only loss to the Rams. They are coming off their best performance of the season, destroying the Ravens 40-25 in Baltimore.
Browns have now covered 4 straight on the road and are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. Take Cleveland!
|10-06-19||Packers v. Cowboys UNDER 47||34-24||Loss||-110||79 h 43 m||Show|
3* NFL -Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Packers/Cowboys under 47 -110
Forget who will cover the spread, there's huge value with the UNDER in Sunday's NFC matchup between the Cowboys and Packers.
Don't let the poor showing by Green Bay's defense in that Thursday Night Football loss to the Eagles. Just about every team struggles defensively when playing on just 3 days of rest. Prior to that this team had been outstanding on defense, holding each of their first 3 opponents to 16 or fewer points.
Cowboys offense looked great in their first 3 games, scoring 30+, but then managed just 10 points at New Orleans last week. I think the Dallas offense was a bit of fools gold, as they had played 3 really bad defensive teams in the Giants, Redskins and Eagles. I think they have a tough time moving the ball in this game.
Packers got Aaron Rodgers, but they have not looked great offensively early on. The only real positive was that TNF game against the Eagles, and it's even harder on the road team's defense in those weekday matchups. Cowboys defense has been rock-solid all season long. Take the UNDER!
|10-06-19||Bucs v. Saints UNDER 47||24-31||Loss||-110||75 h 17 m||Show|
3* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bucs/Saints under 47 -110
The books have completely missed the mark here with the total. This is a different Saints team right now with Teddy Bridgewater at quarterback. They got to rely a lot more on the defense and hope the offense can do enough to win. Without the explosive plays on offense, there's just fewer possessions for scoring.
Big key here is that New Orleans has the defense to carry the load, especially at home where they can feed off of that rowdy crowd. We are simply seeing a high number here because Tampa is off a game against the Rams where they put up 55 and allowed 40. Saints don't have anything close to the offense of LA and are a much stronger defensive team.
UNDER is 13-4 in the Bucs last 17 off a upset win as a dog by 14 or more points and 4-1 in their last 5 after giving up 30 or more. UNDER is also 7-2 in the Saints last 9 off a SU win and 9-2 in their last 11 vs another team from the NFC. Take the UNDER!
|10-06-19||Cardinals v. Bengals -3||Top||26-23||Loss||-110||75 h 12 m||Show|
5* NFL - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Bengals -3 -110
Cincinnati is worth a look here as a mere 3-point home favorite. Even though these are two bad teams, I see a lot of value with the Bengals only needing to win by a field goal. Cincinnati is 0-4, but they have also played a brutal schedule with 3 of their first 4 on the road. Two of those against 1-loss teams in the Seahawks and Bills, the other at Pittsburgh on MNF. The lone home game was against the 49ers, who are undefeated.
Arizona is definitely not a team you want to be trusting on the road. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is struggling. Cardinals have scored 20 or fewer in each of their last 3. They had 27 in the opener, but they were down 24-6 in the 4th quarter. Outside of a 10-minute window in that 4th quarter, the offense hasn't showed us anything.
I know the numbers aren't great for the Bengals defense, but they were more than solid in the two games against the Bills and Seahawks. They also should have won in Seattle week 1. I think they play well here. As for the offense, I think they score early and often in this one. Take Cincinnati!
|10-06-19||Bears -5.5 v. Raiders||Top||21-24||Loss||-110||4 h 41 m||Show|
5* NFL - Bears/Raiders Late Info ATS NO-BRAINER on Bears -5½ -110
This game is being played in London and I think even with Trubisky out for Chicago this is an ideal spot to fade the Raiders. Given how bad the Bears offense has looked and the Raiders off an impressive 31-24 win at Indy the public might be tempted to play Oakland.
What they are going to overlook is this being the 3rd straight road game for the Raiders and just how hard this is for NFL teams. Not to mention we saw how much Oakland's offense struggled against a good Vikings defense a couple weeks ago. Chicago's defense looks like the best in the league. Bears are allowing 11.2 ppg, holding teams almost 8-points under their average. Raiders only average 19.7 ppg and give up 25.5 ppg. Look for Chase Daniel to get the Bears offense going in this one. Take Chicago!
|10-03-19||Rams v. Seahawks -115||Top||29-30||Win||100||11 h 45 m||Show|
5* NFL - NFC West (LAR/SEA) PLAY OF THE MONTH on Seahawks -115
Absolutely love the value here with the Seahawks and with the spread so low I would just take Seattle on the money line. I just think the Seahawks are flying a bit under the radar right now because they haven't really had a signature win in 2019. Either way they are 3-1 and are now 9-2 over their last 11 regular-season games dating back to last season.
They are at a big advantage here playing at home on just 3-days of rest, they also had a much less stressful game this past Sunday. Seahawks coasted to a 27-10 win over Arizona, while Rams were playing from behind all game in a 40-55 loss at home to the Bucs.
Jameis Winston threw all over the Rams secondary and I think Russell Wilson has looked as good as ever in 2019. I think he has a big game in this one.
This is also not just another game for Seattle, as they were swept by LA in last year's two meetings and have lost 3 in a row overall. They want revenge and this is simply not the same caliber a Rams team as the one that made the SB last year.
Seahawks are a dominant 7-0-2 ATS last 9 Thursday games and have covered 8 of their last 12 vs a NFC opponent. Rams 1-5 ATS last 6 Thursday games. Take Seattle!
|09-30-19||Bengals v. Steelers OVER 43.5||Top||3-27||Loss||-110||108 h 50 m||Show|
5* NFL - Monday Night Football TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Bengals/Steelers over 43½ -110
Big time value here with the OVER at this price. While there's some big names missing on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, there's more than enough talent to score on the two defenses that will be playing.
Steelers are giving up 28.3 ppg and have struggled against both the run and the pass. Teams are averaging 139 ypg on the ground and 303 through the air with 8.7 yards/completion. Bengals are allowing 27.7 ppg. They are giving up 169 rushing yards/game and while they are only giving up 238 ypg thru the air, they too are allowing 8.7 yards/completion. Teams are averaging 6.4 yards/play against the Steelers and 6.6 yards/play against the Bengals.
OVER is 12-4 in the Steelers last 16 home games and 7-2-1 in the Bengals last 10 vs a division opponent. Take the OVER!
|09-29-19||Cowboys v. Saints +130||Top||10-12||Win||130||84 h 54 m||Show|
5* NFL - Sunday Night Football GAME OF THE MONTH on Saints +130
Forget the points, the Saints should not be a home dog to the Cowboys. I'm backing them on the money line. New Orleans is getting no love in this matchup because Drew Brees is out and the public is in love with the 3-0 Cowboys. It only makes me like the Saints more with this line begging the public to take Dallas laying less than a field goal.
Teddy Bridgewater doesn't bring the same thing to the table as Brees, but he's an experienced signal caller who has flashed when he's been healthy enough to play. It's not just all him. Saints got a great back in Kamara and a very underrated defense.
Add in the home crowd and how rowdy it's going to be with this being a prime time game and I don't see the Saints losing this one. Dallas is a good but not great team. They have simply beat up on some bad teams to start the year. Take New Orleans!
|09-29-19||Patriots v. Bills +7.5||16-10||Win||100||77 h 35 m||Show|
4* NFL - Public Massacre NO-BRAINER on Bills +7½ -110
Big time value here with Buffalo as a 7.5-point dog against the Patriots. I just think we are getting a little carried away with how good the Patriots have looked early on in 2019. They whooped the Steelers at home on SNF in Week 1. I know Pitt had Big Ben, but clearly that was the same offense without AB. They got a freebie in a game against Miami, who wants nothing at all to do with winning and lastly the Jets with their 3rd string QB under center.
Bills are also 3-0, yet no one outside of Buffalo thinks this team is any kind of threat to make serious playoff run. That's probably accurate given the limited offense, but the defense the Bills got is the real deal. They had the No. 1 ranked pass D last year and have been every bit as good in that department this year.
Patriots got a lot key guys hurt right now and I think Brady and the offense struggles. IN both meetings last year and 3 of the last 4 overall, Bills have held the Pats to 25 or fewer points. I think the Bills do enough offensively to keep it within the number and maybe even win outright. Take Buffalo!
|09-29-19||Chiefs v. Lions +7||34-30||Win||100||77 h 34 m||Show|
3* NFL - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Lions +7 -115
Detroit is definitely worth a look at home getting a touchdown. Patrick Mahomes is the talk of the NFL. He looks even better than he did last year in his MVP season. They are one of the big public teams right now and no question the books have inflated the number here on KC.
The Lions are a 18-point blown 4th quarter lead away from being 3-0. They knocked off a good Chargers team at home and went on the road and beat the Eagles. Instead of giving Detroit credit, people just assume those teams aren't as good as they thought because they lost to the Lions.
Matt Patricia is doing a much better job than he gets credit for. Mahomes and that KC offense is going to score, but I think the Lions will be able to move the ball at will against a bad Chiefs defense that is due for a letdown after laying it all on the line against Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. They also aren't as good on the road when they don't have that home crowd making things so difficult on the opposing offense. Take Detroit!
|09-26-19||Eagles +4.5 v. Packers||34-27||Win||100||12 h 58 m||Show|
3* NFL - Eagles/Packers ATS ANNIHILATOR on Eagles +4½ -110
I think we are getting a great price here on the Eagles catching over a field goal against the Packers on Thursday Night Football. Philadelphia comes in at 1-2 and just lost at home to the Lions as a 4-point favorite. People are starting to second guess this team.
Packers on the other hand are 3-0 and have covered all 3. Public loves betting Aaron Rodgers and thus we get the value with Philadelphia.
Eagles are really close to being 3-0. At the same time, it's not like the Packers are dominating teams. The defense has really carried them. Rodgers and that offense look out of sync in the scheme. The other thing is we don't really know if the defense is as good as it's looked.
Haven't exactly played the best signal callers with their first 3 against Tribusky, Cousins and Flaco. They also got some key guys banged up on that side that might miss this one. I think Wentz and that Eagles offense will be able to move the ball and wouldn't be shocked if the won the game outright. Take Philadelphia!
|09-23-19||Bears v. Redskins OVER 41||31-15||Win||100||10 h 33 m||Show|
4* NFL - Bears/Redskins MNF Total NO-BRAINER on Bears/Redskins over 41 -105
Love the value here with the OVER between the Bears/Redskins on Monday Night Football. This might seem like a solid number given how bad Chicago's offense has looked in the first two games, but I think we are going to see the Bears put up a big number here.
Chicago has played a couple of solid defenses the first two weeks and now get a much easier opponent in the Redskins. Washington is giving up over 30 points/game and the key stat for me is the run defense. Redskins are allowing 168 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry on the ground. I think getting that running game going will really open up some big plays in the air.
Redskins saw a combined 59 points with a total of just 44 in Week 1 at Philadelphia and 52 with a total of 46 in last week's loss at home to the Cowboys. OVER is 13-4 in the Bears last 17 road games vs a team with a losing home record and 4-1 in Washington's last 5 games at home. Take the OVER!
|09-22-19||Rams v. Browns +3.5||Top||20-13||Loss||-110||79 h 40 m||Show|
5* NFL - Rams/Browns SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns +3½ -110
I really like Cleveland to cash in a win at home against the Rams, but you got to take the points to be safe. It took a couple of weeks, but we are finally starting to see the public back on Los Angeles. They won and covered as a small favorite at Carolina in Week 1 and blew out New Orleans 27-9 as a small home favorite in Week 2.
I just don't think it's warranted. I don't know that Carolina is all we thought they would be. Newtown doesn't look like himself and they barely won that game. As for the victory over the Saints, they caught the ultimate break with Drew Brees going down to injury.
This does not look like the same team that went to the Super Bowl last year, especially on the offensive side. Rams rank in the bottom half of the league at just 224.0 passing yards/game. Jared Goff is also a guy that historically plays much worse on the road. I think he's in for a long day here against Myles Garrett. He was a force against the Jets last week.
You also have to play into the atmosphere here. It's going to be electric at FirstEnergy Stadium and I got a feeling this Browns team is going to play with a little more fight as an underdog. Take Cleveland!
|09-22-19||Bengals v. Bills UNDER 44.5||17-21||Win||100||71 h 22 m||Show|
4* NFL - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER under 44½ -110
I think we are getting some value here with the UNDER in Sunday's AFC matchup between the Bills and Bengals. Buffalo is a team that likes to win ugly. They want to wear you down with the run game and let their defense do the talking. Given how limited the offense is and how good the defense is, it's the perfect type of team for UNDERs.
Bengals offense has not exactly looked great. Andy Dalton threw for almost 400 yards at Seattle and yet they only could manage 20 points. Last week they had almost 300 in the air and finished with 17. They have no rushing attack. They got 59 yards rushing in two games combined.
Bills had the No. 1 ranked pass defense last year and are giving up just 198 ypg and 4.6 yards/pass attempt. I know the competition hasn't been great (Jets & Giants), but I think we can trust they are going to be good on that side again.
Bengals defense isn't great, but it's a lot better than it was last week against the 49ers and definitely capable of keeping Buffalo from going off. Take the UNDER!
|09-22-19||Jets +23 v. Patriots||14-30||Win||100||71 h 18 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas Line Mistake ATS SHOCKER on Jets +23 -110
I just think we are seeing a massive overreaction here with this line. I get New England is good and they won and covered on the road as a 18-point favorite in last week's 43-0 win at Miami, but the Dolphins simply aren't trying to be competitive. The Jets are down to third string QB Luke Falk, but they are no where close to as bad as Miami. No other team is.
I know the offense was putrid in the loss the Browns on Monday Night Football, but I really like how the defense competed. I also think given how bad Trevor Siemian has been in this league and how bad he looked, Falk can't be much worse.
We know the Jets are going to give it all as against the Patriots. There's no team they want to beat more than New England. I know the Pats are the last team you expect to have a letdown, but it's gonna be hard for them to take NY seriously enough to win going away. It could be 34-13 and we are golden. I don't know that NE scores that much. Take the Jets!
|09-19-19||Titans v. Jaguars +2||7-20||Win||100||7 h 13 m||Show|
4* NFL - Titans/Jags Thurs Night VEGAS INSIDER on Jaguars +2
The betting public is all over the Titans in this one and I'm not sure why. I really like the value here with Jacksonville as a home dog. I think the Jags are undervalued for a lot of reasons. For one they are 0-2, they got embarrassed in Week 1 at home by the Chiefs and lost starting QB Nick Foles, who was their prized free agent pickup. Not to mention the recent headlines of Jalen Ramsey wanting traded.
Jacksonville was a 2-point conversion away from winning outright as a 9-point underdog at Houston in Week 2. The loss of Foles sucks, but I've liked what I've seen out of rookie Gardner Minshew. I don't know that the drop off from Foles is as big as people think. I thought Foles was more a product of the system in Philadelphia than anything.
The other thing is the Jaguars still have one of the best defenses in the league. They just got exposed by Mahomes and that potent Chiefs offense in Week 1. They were really good against Deshaun Watson last week. Titans offense is not good. They are also not the team you want to back as a road favorite. With Marcus Mariota as the starter, Tennessee is 3-7 ATS as a favorite. Take Jacksonville!
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Al McMordie was 7-7 on Sunday, but 1-3 on his Over/Under plays, which lowered his record on Totals to 91-59 his last 150. On Monday, <b>Big Al's featuring the Over/Under in the AFC West division match-up</b> between the Los Angeles Chargers and KC Chiefs. It's out of a <b>sweet 79% Monday Night Football Totals angle</b>, and Al's <b>89-49 his last 138 NFL Prime Time TV Plays</b>, so get on it!