|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-05-20||76ers GC -2.5 v. Raptors Uprising GC||Top||56-79||Loss||-115||1 h 60 m||Show|
5* BEST BET on 76ers GC -2½ -115
Analysis will be posted shortly
|03-11-20||Nuggets -1.5 v. Mavs||97-113||Loss||-109||10 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Nuggets -1½ -109
The fact that Denver is favored on the road against the Mavs really tells you all you need to know. The books set this line, knowing the betting public will be all over Dallas at this price. They are making it pretty clear that they like the Nuggets to win this game and I agree.
This is not a good spot at all for the Mavs, who have not been playing well. Dallas has lost two straight and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Big key here is the Mavs will be playing on no rest after last night's 109-119 loss at San Antonio. It's also their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Dallas is also just 3-8-1 ATS last 12 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 0-7 ATS last 7 games at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Denver!
|03-10-20||Mavs -3 v. Spurs||109-119||Loss||-109||10 h 54 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt VEGAS ATS BLOWOUT on Mavs -3 -109
The Mavs are definitely worth a look as a slim road favorite at San Antonio. These two teams have already met three times this season and Dallas has won all three meetings. I look for them to no have no problem finishing off the season sweep against the short-handed Spurs.
San Antonio is down their top two big men in LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl. They area also going to be without another key contributor in Dejounte Murray. Dallas should be able to dominate the glass in this one. Not to mention their offense should pick apart a bad Spurs defense that is giving up 121 ppg on 49% shooting over their last 5 games.
Mavs are 19-6-1 ATS last 26 off a loss and 16-4-1 ATS last 21 as a road favorite. They have also covered 11 of the last 14 meetings with the Spurs. Take Dallas!
|03-09-20||Hornets +4.5 v. Hawks||138-143||Loss||-110||9 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Hornets +4½ -110
Easy play here on the Hornets as a decently priced road dog against the Hawks. Charlotte has really been playing some of their best basketball over the last month. Hornets are 6-5 SU over their last 11 games.
Even more important is they are covering the number. Charlotte has cashed a winning ticket in 6 straight games and 9 of their last 11 overall. Most recently beating the Rockets 108-99 as a 8-point dog.
As for the Hawks, they come in having lost and failed to cover 3 straight. Atlanta will have the home court edge, but will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and have several guys banged up or dealing with a bit of the flu bug. Jeff Teague, De'Andre Hunter and DeAndre Bembry are all questionable to play.
Hornets have gone 15-5 ATS this season vs bad teams like the Hawks who have won between 25% to 40% of their games. Take Charlotte!
|03-08-20||Raptors v. Kings UNDER 228.5||118-113||Loss||-110||10 h 26 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Kings under 228½ -110
I really like the UNDER in Sunday's late night NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Kings. Toronto's offense has been potent here of late, scoring 118 or more in each of their last 3, but the last two came against the Suns and Warriors.
I just think we are going to see a bit of an uninterested Raptors' team in this one. This will be Toronto's 4th straight on the road in their 5-game west coast trip, which concludes with a much bigger game tomorrow night in Utah.
Kings also figure to be playing at a much slower pace than normal, as they will be on no rest after a up-tempo game last night in Portland. Sacramento also just got back one of their top defensive players in Richaun Holmes. Take the UNDER!
|03-08-20||Heat -4.5 v. Wizards||100-89||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Heat -4½ -110
I know Miami has had their struggles on the road this season, but I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with the Heat. Washington is somehow still in the playoff mix and are fresh off a win and cover at home against Atlanta. I think it has the Wizards getting to much love here against what I expect to be a desperate Heat team off a loss at New Orleans.
Miami has been a good team to back off a loss, going 15-6 ATS after defeat this season. Washington is also a team they have had a lot of success against. Heat are 25-9-2 ATS in their last 36 trips to DC. Wizards just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a win and 1-7 ATS last 8 times they have had to play on Sunday. Take Miami!
|03-07-20||76ers v. Warriors +2.5||114-118||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Warriors +2½ -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with Golden State. The Warriors are a team that just got back their best player in Steph Curry and despite a sub-par shooting night, he still managed to score 25 in his first game back from injury. I think Curry makes GS a dangerous team, as I think we are going to see his return spark the entire team into playing well.
It's hard to not like them in this spot. 76ers were able to win at Sacramento last time out, but no way can this team be trusted on the road without their two best players in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
Philadelphia is 6-20-1 ATS last 27 road games, 1-5 ATS last 6 as a road favorite and 0-5 ATS last 5 off a win by 10 or more points. Take Golden State!
|03-06-20||Hawks +3 v. Wizards||112-118||Loss||-115||8 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Hawks +3 -115
I like this spot with Atlanta as a slim road dog at Washington. I'm just not buying the Wizards as a playoff team and I think some of that talk is playing into this great price with the Hawks here. You also are getting Atlanta on the cheap after they were just annihilated 127-88 at home by Memphis.
Thing about that loss to the Grizzlies is they aren't the first team that Memphis has done that to here of late. Grizzlies have also held the Lakers to 88 and the Nets to 79 over their last 3 games. Prior to that Atlanta was playing well coming off back-to-back wins.
Washington has lost their last two, most recently losing by 21 at Portland. While the Wizards will be at home here, it's not the greatest spot. They only got one day to regroup from their 4-game west coast trip and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Hawks on the other hand have had the last 3 days off. Take Atlanta!
|03-05-20||Clippers +1 v. Rockets||120-105||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Clippers +1 -110
I really like the value here with Los Angeles as a slim 1-point dog at Houston. The Rockets have been playing much better since their move to small ball, but did just lose at New York as a double-digit favorite on Monday. They have shot just 42% from the field in each of their last 2 games.
I just feel like the Clippers are playing the basketball of any team since the All-Star break. The additions of Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson have been huge. LA is arguably the deepest team in the league and just think they will be able to not only defend Harden and Westbrook, but wear down the Rockets with their onslaught of talent.
LA has covered 21 of their last 33 against high-scoring teams that are averaging 110+ points/game and are 46-29 (61%) last 75 road games vs teams who allow 106+ points/game. Take Los Angeles!
|03-04-20||Celtics v. Cavs +2.5||112-106||Loss||-105||9 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA - Public Money ATS DESTROYER on Cavs +2½ -105
A lot of people are going to look at this line and blindly back the Celtics at basically a pick'em on the road against the Cavs. Those that do will likely regret it. Boston isn't to show up for this game, but it's going to look nothing like the team that has started out 41-19 in their first 60 games.
Both Jason Tatum and Kemba Walker are listed as OUT for this game. Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward are also both listed as doubtful and there's a chance Marcus Smart ends up missing the game due to a suspension.
On top of that, Boston will be playing on no rest after playing at home last night against the Nets, which they lost 120-129 in OT. Playing extra minutes was the last thing they needed and that game could be one that's hard to get over, as they allowed 51 points in the 4th quarter to let the game get to OT. Take Cleveland!
|03-03-20||Wolves v. Pelicans -11||139-134||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans -11 -110
I got no problem laying the big number with the Pelicans at home. I look for New Orleans to make easy work of the Timberwolves. The Pelicans will be eager to take the court after a disappointing 4th quarter in Sunday's 114-122 loss to the Lakers. This is a much improved team with Zion in the mix. They are 9-5 in their last 14 with 4 of those losses coming against the Lakers (twice), Rockets and Bucks.
Minnesota is a bit of a mess. They traded away Wiggins and brought in a ton of new pieces. They are trying to figure things out on the fly without their best player in Towns, who is still out with a wrist injury. They are struggling to win games. They are 1-5 since the break with all 5 losses by double-digits.
Rest is also a huge factor here. Pelicans are playing their 3rd straight at home and this will be just their 3rd game in the last 7 days. Minnesota on the other hand will be playing their 5th road game in their last 6 overall and their 6th game in the last 10 days overall. Take New Orleans!
|03-02-20||Grizzlies v. Hawks OVER 239.5||127-88||Loss||-109||20 h 27 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Hawks over 239½ -109
I really like the value here with the OVER 239.5. This is a massive number for a NBA total, but with the style in which the Hawks play, these two should have no problem eclipsing the mark.
Atlanta basically plays to outscore their opponent, as they want to run and gun behind 2nd-year All-Star Trae Young. Hawks are No. 4 in the NBA in pace and No. 28 in defensive efficiency. They are No. 29 in points/allowed at 119.1 ppg, barely in front of the last place Wizards (119.9 ppg).
While they only average 114 ppg at home, they come in averaging 122.6 ppg in their last 5. Hard to see Memphis slowing them down. Grizzlies are giving up 116.6 ppg on the road. Memphis also wants to play fast, as they are No. 7 in pace.
OVER is 7-3 in the Grizzlies last 10 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 on the road against a team with a losing home record. OVER is 21-8 in Atlanta's last 29 at home vs a team with a losing road record, 11-4 in their last 15 off a win and 5-0 last 5 off a win by more than 10 points. Take the OVER!
|03-01-20||Mavs -6.5 v. Wolves||111-91||Win||100||5 h 0 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Mavs -6½ -110
I got no problem laying the points with Dallas on the road against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are still without their best player in Karl-Anthony Towns and are trying to piece together all the new pieces they acquired at the trade deadline.
Winning is just not a priority for this team and that's pretty evident by the lack of defense they are playing. Minnesota has allowed 4 straight opponents to shoot 51% or better from the field and have not held an opponent under 46% from the field in a month.
Dallas is not the team you want to be facing without a defense, especially with the Mavs coming off a loss at Miami last time out. Dallas is scoring 117.4 ppg on the road this season and are averaging 119 ppg over their last 5. Mavs are also 11-3-1 ATS this season when listed as a road favorite. Take Dallas!
|02-29-20||Rockets +2 v. Celtics||111-110||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
3* NBA - Prime Time ATS KNOCKOUT on Rockets +2 -105
The books are begging you to take the Celtics here at basically a pick'em at home and I'm showing close to 70% of the public taking the bait. That is reason enough on its own to be looking at Houston as a small dog.
I know the Celtics are a talented team, but taking on the likes of James Harden and Russell Westbrook is a tall task without starting point guard Kemba Walker, even at home. You also have to factor in how well Houston is playing. Rockets have won 5 straight and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. Houston is a very streaky team and when they are hot they tend to stay hot for long stretches.
Rockets are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and 11-3 ATS last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take Houston!
|02-28-20||Kings +4 v. Grizzlies||Top||104-101||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +4 -109
I love the value here with Sacramento. The Kings have covered 4 straight out of the All-Star break and clearly are playing with a different sense of urgency than we had seen. I not only like them to cover, but I think they win here outright.
Memphis is in a bad spot right now. Just when everyone seemed to catch on with how good rookie Ja Morant was, the Grizzlies suffered two massive injuries to Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. Those two are far from big names, but without them Memphis has looked like a bottom feeder. Grizzlies have gone 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS since the break and each of the last 3 came by double-digits.
I also think there's some value here due to Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox showing up as questionable on the injury report. As well as Sacramento playing on no rest after a game last night in OKC. I expect Fox to play. It felt like last night's injury was more made up than anything. Kings are 6-2 ATS this season when playing on no rest. Take Sacramento!
|02-27-20||Knicks +6.5 v. 76ers||106-115||Loss||-110||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Knicks +6½ -110
I really like the value here with New York as a decently priced road dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia has a great record at home, but things couldn't be going much worse at the moment. Already without Ben Simmons, the 76ers lost Joel Embiid in last night's 14-point loss at Cleveland.
He's almost a guarantee not to play tonight. Not having their two best players and playing on no rest, really negates any home court advantage Philadelphia may have had. I know the Knicks are bad, but if the 76ers aren't careful they could lose this game outright.
Knicks are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 on the road, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take New York!
|02-26-20||Clippers -5.5 v. Suns||102-92||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Clippers -5½ -110
I got no problem laying a short number on the road with the Clippers at Phoenix. LA snapped a 3-game skid with a 124-97 thrashing of the Grizzlies at home on Monday. Now it's time for them to make easy work of the Suns.
Phoenix has won their last two, including a big upset win at Utah on Monday as a 8.5-point dog, but are on just 1 day of rest after playing 3 road games in a 4 day stretch. Suns are also one of the few teams who have fewer wins at home than on the road. Phoenix is 11-18 at home compared to 13-16 on the road. Suns don't just lose straight up, they are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 at home.
Clippers are 27-13 ATS last 40 as road favorite and have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles!
|02-25-20||Bucks v. Raptors OVER 230.5||108-97||Loss||-109||10 h 36 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Raptors over 230½ -109
I really like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's big Eastern Conference matchup that has the Raptors hosting the Bucks. I just don't think the number here is anywhere close to what it needs to be at.
These are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA. Milwaukee is 2nd in offensive efficiency and the Raptors are T-8th. Toronto is also a much better offensive team at home. Raptors average 113.3 ppg on the season, but that jumps to 117.2 ppg at home.
Both of these teams also love to run. Bucks are No. 1 in the NBA in pace of play and Raptors are 12th. Both really like to get out in run. Toronto is No. 1 in the NBA in fast break points and Bucks are No. 2. Not to mention both teams are averaging 14 made 3-pointers per game.
OVER is 8-1 in the Raptors last 9 at home off a home win and 14-5-1 in Bucks last 20 road games vs a team that has won more than 60% of their home games. Take the OVER!
|02-24-20||Knicks +14 v. Rockets||112-123||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Knicks +14 -105
I like the value here with the Knicks as a massive road dog against Houston. The books have no choice here but to inflate the number on New York with how well the Rockets have looked out of the break, beating the Warriors by 30 on the road and then going to Utah and beating the Jazz by 10.
As good as Houston is playing, this is a big flat spot playing on just 1-day of rest after a pretty big game at Utah. Knicks are definitely not a team to get excited to play. Rockets have to feel like they can just go through the motions and win this game.
Knicks have been all over the place. They won 4 in a row only to lose their next 3. I think they show up in this one, as they are playing only their 2nd game back from the break and are on a full two days of rest.
Knicks are 8-1 ATS this season when playing a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and Houston is just 25-43 (37%) ATS last 68 times they have been a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. Take New York!
|02-23-20||Pacers +6 v. Raptors||81-127||Loss||-115||8 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pacers +6 -115
I like the value here with the Pacers catching a decent number on the road against the Raptors. Indiana went into the All-Star break with a 118-111 win at home against the Bucks and then came back with a 106-98 win and cover at New York. I look for the Pacers to stay hot in a game you know they had circled.
These two teams played twice in a 3-day stretch from Feb. 5-7. Toronto won both games. Indiana had their chances in both. They led most of the way in a gut-wrenching 118-119 loss at Toronto on Feb. 5 and two days later lost another close game at home 106-115. Needless to say the Pacers will have revenge on their mind in this one.
Oladipo might not go for Indiana, as he's listed as doubtful. That's a big loss on paper, but he's not played like the All-Star we remember in his limited time back from injury. Pacers were playing better without him. If anything his injury has added value here. Take Indiana!
|02-22-20||Nets v. Hornets UNDER 212.5||115-86||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT on Nets/Hornets under 212½ -110
I really like the UNDER in Saturday's NBA matchup between the Hornets and Nets. Charlotte plays at the slowest pace in the NBA and are in the bottom 5 in offensive efficiency. With the game on their home floor they should be able to play the game closer to their tempo.
As for the Nets, they are not only playing better without Kyrie Irving this year, they are a much better defensive team when Irving isn't on the floor. With the way their offense has struggled here of late, scoring 106 or fewer in 3 straight, this sets up to be a defensive battle that could see both teams fail to reach the century mark.
UNDER has cashed in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two in Charlotte and is 6-2 in the Hornets last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 19-7 in Brooklyn's last 26 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take the UNDER!
|02-21-20||Mavs v. Magic UNDER 220.5||122-106||Loss||-110||11 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Mavs/Magic under 220½ -110
I like the value here with the UNDER between the Magic and Mavericks. Dallas has been better offensively than expected this year and it's why the OVER is 35-20 in their 55 games to this point. I just think the books have made the adjustments and now it's time to start looking the other way.
Getting a game to go over 220 with Orlando is not an easy task. I get they put up 116 and 135 points in their last two games before the break, but that was against the Pistons and Hawks. This is still the same team that had a stretch of 4 games where they didn't crack 100. Part of that is their lack of offensive playmakers, but even more so is their desire to play at a slow pace (3rd slowest).
Keep in mind these two teams played back in November and only combined for 213 points and that was with the Magic shooting 49% from the field (shoot 43.4% on the season).
Mavs rely on the 3-pointer (average 15 made 3's/game). UNDER is 8-1 in Orlando's last 9 home games vs a team who shoots 36% or better from deep. It's also 13-2 in Magic's last 15 at home in the 2nd half of the season vs strong teams (outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg). Take the UNDER!
|02-20-20||Hornets v. Bulls UNDER 211.5||103-93||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Hornets/Bulls under 211½ -110
I just look for the Bulls and Hornets to have a difficult time scoring enough to eclipse the mark set by the books. These two of the worst offensive teams in the league in terms of efficiency. In fact, both are tied for the 26th worst mark in offensive efficiency for the season.
Factor in the slow tempo that Charlotte likes to play at (ranks dead last in pace) and the laundry list of injuries that the Bulls are dealing with right now and it's just hard to see either offense doing a lot in this one. These two did just play a couple months ago (12/13) and that game finished with a mere 156 points, as Charlotte won 83-73. Take the UNDER!
|02-14-20||World v. USA -4||131-151||Win||100||10 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA - Rising Stars VEGAS INSIDER on USA -4 -110
I'm confident Team USA is going to come away with a win and cover in tonight's Rising Star Challenge. Last year Team USA won going away 161-144 and I think we could see another blowout in this one.
Team USA looks to be even better this year, as they got the two best rookies in the game in Ja Morant and Zion Williamson, who both look like guys who will be at or near the top of the game for a long time coming. Team World has Doncic, but much like USA's Trae Young, he doesn't figure to play a lot. Doncic and Young both made the real All-Star game on Sunday and aren't going to log many minutes in this thing.
With that said I think Zion and Morant are going to put on a show at the United Center. Take Team USA!
|02-13-20||Thunder v. Pelicans -2||123-118||Loss||-109||9 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Pelicans -2 -109
The Pelicans are worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Thunder. New Orleans is playing with a ton of confidence right now. They are different looking team since adding in rookie phenom Zion Williamson. New Orleans has won 3 straight and 6 of 8 overall. Most recently destroying a hot Blazers team 138-117 on their home floor.
I expect to see a big effort here from the Pelicans to keep that positive momentum going into the All-Star break. As for the Thunder, they have lost their last two and both were at home, including a 8-point loss to the Spurs last time out as a 8-point favorite. OKC has failed to cover 3 of their last 4 and I just don't see them flipping on the switch for one game before the break, especially on the road.
There's also triple-revenge in play, as the Thunder have won the first 3 meetings between these two this season. Thing is all 3 of those came in the first two months of the season (last played 12/1).
Pelicans are 34-18 ATS last 52 at home revenging a loss of 3-points or less. They are 9-3 ATS last 12 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a favorite. Take New Orleans!
|02-12-20||Lakers v. Nuggets +2.5||120-116||Loss||-105||12 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Nuggets +2½ -105
Denver is definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Lakers. With how big a public play LA is right now, for the books to hang the Lakers at basically a pick'em, it's clear they like the Nuggets in this spot.
There's definitely reason to fade LA. Denver is one of the more difficult places to play, especially for teams who have had to do a lot of travel. The Lakers have been all over the place. After a home game last Thursday, they traveled to Golden State for a game on Saturday, they then returned home for a game Monday and now are back on the road for this one.
Add in the distractions of All-Star weekend, which is something they can focus on 100% once this game is over, as they don't play again until next Friday. I don't see Denver caring as much about getting to the break. Every team wants to beat the Lakers and the Nuggets are rolling into this one with a lot of confidence with 4 straight wins and covers.
Lakers are also just 2-8 ATS last 10 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 3-7 ATS last 10 as a road favorite and 1-6 ATS last 7 on just 1 day of rest. Nuggets are 16-7 ATS last 23 at home vs a team with a winning road record and 4-0 ATS last 4 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take Denver!
|02-12-20||Hawks v. Cavs +2.5||105-127||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Cavs +2½ -110
This is an easy play here on Cleveland as a home dog against the Hawks. I get the Cavs are a bad team and are off an ugly 41-point loss at home to the Clippers, but no way should the Hawks be laying points on the road to any team in the league.
Atlanta is 6-23 on the road this season and they aren't just losing a bunch of close games. The Hawks are losing by an average of 13.1 ppg. It's easy to see why with how little defense they play. Atlanta allows 122.1 ppg on 49% shooting away from home. It's been even worse than that in their last 5 overall, as they are giving up 125 ppg on 49% shooting.
Hawks are also 4-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a favorite and just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they have been asked to lay points on the road. Not to mention they are 1-5 ATS last 6 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take Cleveland!
|02-11-20||Spurs v. Thunder -7.5||114-106||Loss||-109||9 h 19 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Thunder -7½ -109
Easy play here on OKC at home against the Spurs. Big time bounce back spot for the Thunder off a hard fought 1-point loss at home to the Celtics. OKC is still 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS over their last 11 games and will have a huge edge here playing on 1-day of rest. Not to mention the Thunder have had to do zero travel of late, playing their 4th straight at home.
As for the Spurs, they are playing in the 2nd game of a back-to-back after an excruciating 120-127 loss at Denver last night. San Antonio had a 23-point lead over the Nuggets before suffering an absolute meltdown. This will be their 6th straight on the road and 3rd in the last 4 nights. I don't think there's any recovering from this for the Spurs until after the All-Star break.
Spurs are 2-11 ATS last 13 road games in the month of February, 4-12 ATS last 16 when playing 6 or more games in a 10 day stretch and 2-11 ATS last 13 after losing 4/5 of their last 6. Thunder are 13-4 ATS last 17 after winning 4 of their last 5. Take OKC!
|02-10-20||Suns v. Lakers -12.5||100-125||Win||100||15 h 38 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Lakers -12½ -109
I got no problem laying the big number with the Lakers at home on Monday. LA avoided a second straight loss with a 125-120 win at Golden State and I think there's some motivation here for them to play well in these last two games before the All-Star break.
As for the Suns, they are really struggling to get going. Phoenix has lost 5 of their last 6. While their lone win was a 36-point victory over the Rockets, Houston was resting guys and in a massive flat spot in the 2nd leg of a back-to-back after beating these Lakers the night before.
This also has to be a tired Suns team. Phoenix will be playing their 4th game in the last 6 days and 6th in the last 9. I just don't see them having the energy needed to keep this game close and let's not forget the Suns are still dealing with a lot of injuries right now.
Phoenix is 7-18 ATS last 25 when playing 6 or more games in a 10-day stretch and are 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Lakers are 7-0 ATS this season at home off a road win. Take Los Angeles!
|02-09-20||Heat +5 v. Blazers||109-115||Loss||-105||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Heat +5 -105
I like the value here with Miami catching a decent number on the road against the Blazers. I just think we are getting a good price on the Heat here due to the fact that they won't have Jimmy Butler or Tyler Herro. However, they are expected to debut a couple of their new additions in Jae Crowder and Andre Iguodala.
The other big there here is I think this is a really tough spot for Portland. Blazers just suffered a crushing 114-117 loss at Utah on Friday in the second leg of a back-to-back. A game they led by 14 at the half and got screwed on a non-goaltending call late. Now they are playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and this is where their lack of depth really hurts them.
Miami lost 97-105 at Sacramento on Friday, but the Heat are a dominant 20-6-1 ATS in their last 27 games off a loss. Miami has struggled on the road, but Portland is a mere 1-4 ATS last 5 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 4-9 ATS last 13 off a SU loss. Take Miami!
|02-08-20||Pelicans v. Pacers -2||124-117||Loss||-109||8 h 39 m||Show|
4* BEST BET on Pacers -2 -109
Analysis will be posted shortly
|02-07-20||Rockets v. Suns UNDER 235.5||91-127||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rockets/Suns under 235½ -109
The UNDER is worth a look here. Books have set a massive number on the total for this one, but I have hard time seeing the pace being there for these two to eclipse the mark.
Houston is in a massive letdown spot here playing on the second leg of a back-to-back road set after playing last night in LA. A game they won 121-111, which I think only makes it that more likely they don't show up for this one. You also have to factor in they are going to rest Russell Westbrook, as they continue to keep him from playing both games in a back-to-back scenario.
As for the Suns, they are really hurting with injuries. Aaron Baynes, Dario Saric, Tyler Johnson, Ty Jerome and Cam Johnson are all out for this one. Also, while Phoenix is at home on a day of rest, this figures to be a tired Suns team. As they had to play Sunday at Milwaukee, Monday at Brooklyn and then Wednesday at Detroit. Suns are only scoring 105 ppg over their last 4 games, well below their season mark of 112.5 ppg.
UNDER has cashed in 5 of the Rockets last 7 on 0 days rest and 5 of their last 7 as a road favorite. UNDER is also 6-1 in the Suns last 7 home games. Take the UNDER!
|02-07-20||Pistons v. Thunder UNDER 217.5||101-108||Win||100||10 h 44 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Pistons/Thunder under 217½ -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER between the Pistons and Thunder. This is just too big a number given what Detroit has to work with on the road. The Pistons are without Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard long-term. Derrick Rose, Markieff Morris and Svi Mykhailiuk won't be available for this one.
Detroit also just traded away their best player in Andre Drummond. They did get John Henson and Brandon Knight in the deal, but hard to imagine the suit up here and even if they do it's hard seeing their offense do much of anything.
Just a couple of games ago we saw Detroit manage just 82 points on the road at Memphis and I would be shocked if they sniffed 100 in this one. UNDER is 9-4 in the Pistons last 13 as a road dog and 4-1 in their last 5 trips to OKC. UNDER is also 4-1 in the last 5 overall for the Thunder. Take the UNDER!
|02-06-20||Pelicans v. Bulls +5||125-119||Loss||-105||10 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Bulls +5 -105
The Bulls are worth a look here as a home dog against the Pelicans. The books are absolutely begging you to take New Orleans here, as they are feeding into the Zion Williamson hype. I know Chicago has disappointed and are dealing with some injuries, but they are going to show up with a big effort here.
Zion has looked great, but the Pelicans are just 3-4 SU and 3-4 ATS in the 7 games since he made his debut. I really think this is a tough spot for them having just recently played at Houston and then at home against the Bucks. Really easy for them to look past a struggling Bulls team on the road.
Pelicans are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a double-digit loss at home. Chicago in the meantime will be fresh, as they have been off since Sunday and are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 when playing on 3 or more days of rest. Take Chicago!
|02-05-20||Nuggets v. Jazz UNDER 218||Top||98-95||Win||100||11 h 57 m||Show|
5* NBA - Northwest Div TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Nuggets/Jazz under 218 -109
I love the value here with the UNDER in Wednesday's NBA matchup that has the Jazz hosting the Nuggets. After losing 4 straight where the defense has not been playing well, I think we are going to get a big time effort from Utah at home in this one.
One of the reasons the Jazz's defense was slipping was the team was just worn down. They should be refreshed here playing on a full 3 days of rest. Last time out Utah lost 107-124 at Portland as a 8-point favorite and that's worth noting. UNDER is 26-9 in the Jazz's last 35 off a double-digit loss as a favorite of 6 or more.
Another big thing here is Denver will be playing this game on no rest, as they had to host the Blazers last night. Look for a Nuggets team that ranks 29th in pace to play even slower than normal on no rest.
UNDER is also 31-9 (78%) last 5 seasons in games where you have a team off 2 or more consecutive road losses in a matchup of two good teams that have won between 60% to 75% of their games. Take the UNDER!
|02-05-20||Suns v. Pistons UNDER 220||108-116||Loss||-109||9 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Suns/Pistons under 220 -109
The UNDER is definitely worth a look here between the Pistons and Suns. These are two teams that are really dealing with some big injuries right now. Detroit's been without Blake Griffin and Luke Kennard for a while.
They won't have Derrick Rose or Svi Mykhailiuk for this one and Markieff Morris is questionable. Pistons were in a similar spot in their last game and managed just 82 points on 35% shooting at Memphis a game that saw a combined 178 points with a total of 223.5.
As for the Suns, Cameron Johnson, Aron Baynes, Tyler Johnson, Ty Jerome, Dario Saric and Frank Kaminsky are all expected to miss this game. Much like the Pistons the Suns struggled to overcome these injuries in their last game, scoring just 97 on the road at Brooklyn, who is far from a good defensive team. Take the UNDER!
|02-04-20||Hornets v. Rockets UNDER 224.5||110-125||Loss||-110||10 h 40 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Hornets/Rockets under 224½ -110
I like the value with the UNDER in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Rockets hosting the Hornets. As good as Houston is offensively they are shooting a mere 44% over their last 5 games and figure to have a hard time putting up a big number here.
Not because the Hornets are a juggernaut on defense, but because Charlotte plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league. Not to mention the Hornets are arguably the worst offensive team in the league right now. Charlotte is shooting 42% from the field in their last 5 and 42% on the road this season. In the Hornets last 10 games the most they have scored in any game is 112 and 7 of the 10 have seen them score 100 or less.
UNDER has gone 9-3 in Charlotte's last 12 games vs a team with a winning record. UNDER is also 7-2 in Rockets last 9 vs a team with a losing record and 4-0 in their last 4 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take the UNDER!
|02-03-20||Warriors v. Wizards -5.5||125-117||Loss||-105||9 h 31 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Wizards -5½ -105
I really like the value here with Washington laying what I feel is a short number at home against the Warriors. I think we are getting such a great number with the Wizards due to the Warriors coming in off a 131-112 win at Cleveland, but you can't read anything into that win with how bad the Cavs are playing right now.
Prior to that win the Warriors had gone just 1-15 in their previous 16 with 12 of those 15 losses coming by more than the number here. I get Washington doesn't have that much better of a record than Golden State, but they are 11-11 at home and the Warriors are 4-22 on the road. Wizards also come in having won two straight and covered 5 of their last 7.
Golden State is also just 9-21 ATS last 30 off a win by 15 or more and 2-9 ATS off a win as a road dog (0-3 this season). Take Washington!
|02-02-20||Nuggets v. Pistons UNDER 216||Top||123-128||Loss||-110||3 h 21 m||Show|
5* NBA - Over/Under VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Nuggets/Pistons under 216 -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's NBA matchup between the Nuggets and Pistons. I just don't see either one of these offenses being in sync with this early start time. The game is tipping off at 12:30 EST, which means it's going to feel like playing at 10:30 am for the Nuggets.
This also figures to be a tired Denver team, who just finished up a back-to-back Thursday/Friday at Milwaukee after a game at home against Utah the night before. Detroit could only manage 92 points on 35% shooting at home against the Raptors in their last game and it doesn't figure to be much better for them in this one.
UNDER is 15-5 in the Nuggets last 20 games against a team with a losing record in the 2nd half of the season and 4-1 in their last 5 on the road. Take the UNDER!
|02-01-20||Lakers v. Kings +6||129-113||Loss||-105||11 h 3 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night ATS DOMINATOR on Kings +6 -105
The Kings are definitely worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Lakers. I think a lot of people thought LA was going to come out and light the world on fire in their first game since the tragic death of Kobe Bryant, but instead they lost 119-127 at home to the Blazers as a 13-point favorite.
I just think it's going to take some time for the Lakers to get back in the groove of things and it's really hard to see them playing well in this spot. LA will be on no rest and even more so off the emotional night that was centered around Kobe. I could see LA not showing up at all for this game. Sacramento on the other hand is going to be motivated for a shot at beating the Lakers and it wouldn't surprise me at all if they won outright. Take Sacramento!
|01-31-20||Nuggets v. Bucks -9.5||127-115||Loss||-109||10 h 26 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Bucks -9½ -109
Easy play here on Milwaukee at home against the Nuggets. This is an absolutely brutal spot on the road for Denver. The Nuggets were able to rally to take down the Jazz 106-100 last night in a nationally televised game on TNT. Denver really laid it all on the line in that one and had to given how short-handed they are right now with all the injuries they are dealing with.
A lot easier to overcome those injuries at home and Utah looks to be running out of gas here of late after their crazy run. I just don't see the Nuggets have anything close to what will be needed to keep this game close against a Bucks team that is playing their 2nd straight at home and on a full 2 days of rest.
Denver is 2-7 ATS last 9 games when playing on 0 days of rest and 3-7-2 ATS last 12 on the road vs a team with a winning home record. They have also failed to cover 4 of their last 5 off a win. Take Milwaukee!
|01-30-20||76ers v. Hawks +7.5||117-127||Win||100||8 h 28 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS DESTROYER on Hawks +7½ -110
I like the value here with the Hawks as a decently priced home dog against the 76ers. I just think we are getting a great price here with Atlanta due to the fact that Philadelphia has won 6 of their last 7. They are just 4-3 ATS in this stretch and only one of those covers was on the road in a 6-point win as a 2-point favorite at Brooklyn.
Fading the 76ers away from home is definitely a wise move. Philadelphia is just 9-15 SU and 9-14 ATS on the road this season. They have been especially bad against the spread away from home here of late, going just 1-8 ATS in their last 9.
76ers will also play this one without Al Horford, which is a big blow with Embiid not 100% yet back from injury and is on a minutes restriction. Take Atlanta!
|01-29-20||Bulls v. Pacers -9||106-115||Push||0||8 h 55 m||Show|
3* NBA - Situational ATS ANNIHILATOR Pacers -9 -109
I got no problem laying the big number with the Pacers at home against the Bulls. Chicago comes in off a big 110-109 home win over the Spurs, but that came as no surprise. San Antonio was without big man LaMarcus Aldridge and were in a brutal spot playing on no rest after being forced to play the day before in an emotional affair against the Raptors following the news of Kobe's death.
I just don't see Chicago having what it takes to keep this game close. Bulls are absolutely decimated with injuries right now and Indiana is getting back their best player in Victor Oladipo. I know Oladipo's impact will likely be limited early on, but I think his return gives this Pacers team a big shot in the arm. Bulls have also gone just 8-15 on the road and the Pacers are 17-5 at home. Chicago has failed miserably when facing top tier teams and this will be no different. Take Indiana!
|01-28-20||Suns +7.5 v. Mavs||Top||133-104||Win||100||10 h 52 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Suns +7½ -105
I love the value here with Phoenix catching a big number against the Mavs tonight. This is just a really tough spot for Dallas, who were in action last night at Oklahoma City, which concluded a really tough 3-game road trip that started in Portland and also had them playing at Utah Saturday.
They were able to knock off OKC last night 107-97, but caught a big break with Chris Paul not playing and they got a big lookahead game on Thursday at Houston. It's really asking a lot of Dallas to be at their best in this one.
Suns can be a dangerous team when they are on and it will definitely help matters that they have been off since Sunday. Phoenix has also been a good bet away from home when getting points. Suns are 5-1 ATS last 6 on the road as an underdog. They are also 8-2 ATS last 10 meetings in the series with a 5-1 ATS mark in their last 6 games at Dallas. Take Phoenix!
|01-27-20||Magic v. Heat -5||Top||92-113||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
5* NBA - Southeast Division PLAY OF THE MONTH on Heat -5 -109
Easy play here on Miami laying a short number at home against the Magic. The Heat are dealing with some injuries right now, which is keeping this line a lot lower than it should be.
Butler, Dragic and Nunn are all questionable to play. Dragic and Nunn were held out of their last game, a 117-122 loss at home to the Clippers, while Butler hurt his ankle and wasn't able to return. I think there's a good chance Dragic and/or Nunn return for this one, but even if they don't it's hard to not like Miami in this one.
That's because the Heat are a ridiculous 20-2 at home this season and to only lose by 5 without all those guys against the Clippers says a lot about the depth of this team. Miami hasn't played since Friday and are 9-1 this season on 2 days of rest.
Magic are also in a really tough spot. Orlando had to play an emotional game yesterday at home against the Clippers after the news of Kobe Bryants death. This team has gone just 1-6 on no rest this season and there's an added challenge here with how tough it was to play yesterday's game given the horrific news. Take Miami!
|01-26-20||Raptors v. Spurs UNDER 223||Top||110-106||Win||100||6 h 51 m||Show|
5* NBA - Non-Conference TOTAL OF THE MONTH on Raptors/Spurs under 223 -109
Love the value here with the UNDER in Sunday's afternoon showdown between the Spurs and Raptors. I just think both of these teams are going to be looking to slow things down a bit. Toronto is playing their second straight on the road and 4th away from home in their last 5 overall. It's also the Raptors 6th game in the last 10 days.
Spurs will be playing their second straight at home, but prior to that were on the road for 6 of 8 games and they are also on little rest with this being their 5th game in 8 days.
You also have two teams that have been playing well and I think both will bring the defensive intensity in this one. There's just also something about playing on Sunday. UNDER is 3-0-1 in the Raptors last 4 on Sunday and 6-1 in the Spurs last 7.
These two teams also played recently, as the just faced off in Toronto on Jan. 12th. That game only saw a combined score of 209. Spurs really did a good job of slowing the game down and making the Raptors play at their pace, something they should be able to do even more at home. Take the UNDER!
|01-25-20||Mavs +5 v. Jazz||107-112||Push||0||5 h 5 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas ATS Line Mistake on Mavs +5 -105
I like the value here with Dallas as a decently priced road dog against the Jazz. Utah has been unbelievable of late, winning 18 of their last 20, but it's not as good a run as you might think. Only two of those 18 wins have come against teams with a winning record.
Dallas did suffer a big blow with the loss of Dwight Powell, but they have recently got back one of their best players in Kristaps Porzingis and when he's been healthy this has looked like one of the best teams in the Western Conference.
Another big factor here is how well the Mavs play away from home, as they are 13-5-1 (72%) ATS away from home and have covered the line on the road by an average of 7.5 points/game. Mavs are also 8-0 ATS last 8 road games after scoring 105 or more in 3 straight games. Take Dallas!
|01-24-20||Nuggets v. Pelicans -3.5||113-106||Loss||-109||9 h 58 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pelicans -3½ -109
Easy play here on the Pelicans laying a short number at home against the short-handed Nuggets. New Orleans failed to deliver in Zion Williamson's debut Wednesday against the Spurs and it just looked like the Pelicans were a bit out of sorts with all the hype around that game. San Antonio is also not a team you want to face in that spot, especially with how well they have been playing.
We saw New Orleans priced very similarly in that game and I just think there's value in this matchup against Denver. Pelicans should only get better going forward and the minutes restriction for Zion should keep increasing.
Nuggets are decimated right now. Paul Millsap, Mason Plumlee and Jamal Murray are all out. Plus, you got both Gary Harris and Michael Porter Jr. listed as question. Not to mention this is Denver's 3rd straight on the road with a big rematch on deck at home against the Rockets looming Sunday. Take New Orleans!
|01-24-20||Celtics v. Magic -1||109-98||Loss||-105||8 h 53 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Magic -1 -105
Orlando is definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on their home floor against the Celtics. Books are begging you to take Boston here at this price, especially with the Celtics coming off two massive blowouts, as they followed up a 139-107 win over the Lakers with a 119-95 win against Memphis.
Key here is the Celtics are likely going to be down a few key pieces. We know Enes Kanter won't be available and both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are questionable to play. Orlando is always a tough to team to get up for and the Magic play well at home. They really get after you defensively and like to slow the game way down.
With a big matchup looming on Sunday at New Orleans against Zion and the Pelicans, I think we see Boston go through the motions here and drop a game they probably shouldn't. Take Orlando!
|01-23-20||Wizards v. Cavs UNDER 232||124-112||Loss||-110||10 h 21 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Wizards/Cavs under 232 -110
I really like the UNDER in tonight's NBA matchup between the Cavs and Wizards. Washington is a team that finds themselves in a lot of high scoring games, but this will not be one of them. Wizards aren't going to have much gas in the tank for this one, as they just played last night in Miami in a game that went to OT.
Cleveland won't have any problem playing this game at a slower pace, as they come in ranked 23rd in the league in pace of play. Cavs won't have Brandon Knight for this game, which is a big positive for their defense, as is the expected return of John Henson. Last time out Cleveland scored just 86 points against the Knicks in a game that saw a combined score of 192 with a total of 222.5.
UNDER is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games and 7-1 in the Cavs last 8 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take the UNDER!
|01-22-20||Jazz v. Warriors UNDER 218.5||129-96||Loss||-110||12 h 46 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Jazz/Warriors under 218½ -110
The UNDER is definitely worth a look in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Warriors hosting the Jazz. Golden State is coming off a game at Portland where they put up 124 points and combined for 253. I just think it has the total here a lot higher than it should be.
Warriors have only eclipsed 110 points twice in their last 10 games and will have a hard time coming anywhere close to that against a good Utah defense that just held the Pacers to 88 points at home in their last game.
UNDER is 14-5 in the Warriors last 19 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 22-9 in their last 31 at home after going over the total in their last game and 12-2 in their last 14 home games after a contest with a combined score of 245 or more points. Take the UNDER!
|01-22-20||Grizzlies v. Celtics UNDER 232.5||95-119||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Grizzlies/Celtics under 232½ -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in tonight's NBA matchup between the Celtics and Grizzlies. Boston will be without one of their top players, as Jaylen Brown has been ruled out with an ankle injury. That's a big loss for a Celtics team that is likely to suffer some kind of letdown after that big win over the Lakers on Monday.
In terms of a letdown, I think we see a little slower pace and more focus on the defensive end for Boston, who I think will find some motivation here trying to slow down a red-hot Memphis offense that has a ridiculous streak going of scoring 110 or more points in 14 straight games.
I'm not saying this won't be a high-scoring game, I just don't think it eclipses the high total set by the books. UNDER is 4-1 in Boston's last 5 after a game where they scored 125 or more and 7-3 in the Grizzlies last 10 after giving up 125 or more in their last game. Take the UNDER!
|01-21-20||Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 233.5||110-107||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Clippers/Mavs under 233½ -110
I'll take my chances here with the UNDER in Tuesday's only NBA action that has the Mavs hosting the Clippers. In the only previous meeting between these two they combined for just 213 points with a total of 225. Both defenses were really good, as both sides shot under 43% from the field.
I think we get a big effect defensively from both teams knowing that a lot of eyes will be on this one. Also, both teams are going to be well-rested, as LA hasn't played since Saturday and Dallas since Friday.
It's also worth noting that Dallas is favored, which adds some value. UNDER is 8-1 this season when the Clippers are listed as an underdog and a perfect 7-0 when they are a road dog. UNDER is also 8-1 in LA's last 9 vs a top tier team that's outscoring teams by 6+ points/game. Take the UNDER!
|01-20-20||Lakers v. Celtics +2.5||Top||107-139||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
5* NBA - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Celtics +2½ -110
I love this spot and price with Boston as a home dog against the Lakers. Celtics do have both Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown listed as questionable, but I think there's a good shot both guys could play here. Walker missed Boston's last game with a sore knee, but played 38 minutes and scored 40 points against the Bucks on Thursday (didn't leave the game). Brown has missed the last two with a sprained thumb.
Lakers also have a big name on the injury report, as Anthony Davis is also questionable. I think it's less likely Davis goes, as he's missed the last 5 (listed as questionable for all 5). Davis was not part of team workouts yesterday, so it's hard seeing them just throwing him out there for this game.
This is also a huge game for Boston, not only because it's against Lebron and the Lakers, but they are desperate for a win after losing their last 3. Hard to bet against them as a home dog. Celtics are 16-5 at home, 41-25 ATS last 3 seasons as a dog and 12-3 ATS last 15 as a home dog. Take Boston!
|01-20-20||Bulls v. Bucks UNDER 226.5||98-111||Win||100||6 h 16 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Bulls/Bucks under 226½ -109
I really like the value with the UNDER in Monday's Central Division clash between the Bulls and Bucks. These two teams are very familiar with one another and will be meeting for the 4th time this season. After combining for 239 points in the first matchup, the last two have gone for 225 or less.
I just have a hard time seeing these two eclipse the mark set for this one. Milwaukee's one of the best defensive teams in the league and Chicago's offense has had it's struggles against better teams, especially on the road.
One thing the Bulls do well that should help this stay under is play solid transition defense. Chicago ranks 8th in defensive transition defense. They also defend spot up shooting, which is where Milwaukee's offense really thrives.
It's also important to note the Bucks come in off a 117-97 win at Brooklyn, as the UNDER is 13-3 in Milwaukee's last 16 home games off a road win by 10 or more and a perfect 8-0 if that win was by 20 or more. Take the UNDER!
|01-19-20||Heat v. Spurs||102-107||Loss||-110||2 h 19 m||Show|
3* BEST BET on Heat PK -110
Analysis will be posted shortly
|01-18-20||Blazers v. Thunder -6||106-119||Win||100||10 h 53 m||Show|
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder -6 -110
Easy play here on OKC as a home favorite against the Blazers. Great spot here to take the Thunder after a couple of ugly home losses to the Raptors and Heat in their last two games. The defense just wasn't there in those two losses, but those are also two of the better offensive teams in the league.
Both teams will be in the second leg of a back-to-back, but OKC has a huge edge here as they have had zero travel playing their 3rd straight at home. Portland on the other hand is playing their 3rd straight on the road, as they were in Dallas last night after playing at Houston on Wednesday. Blazers are just 1-3-1 ATS last 5 times on 0 days of rest, while OKC is a perfect 6-0 ATS on no rest this season covering by almost 9 points/game.
Portland could also be dealing with yet another injury, as C.J. McCollum had to leave (did not return) last night's game against the Mavs with an ankle injury. Hard to believe he plays here. He's a huge loss, as he's averaging 21.5 ppg and one of the Blazers best 3-point shooters. Take Oklahoma City!
|01-18-20||Bucks -9 v. Nets||117-97||Win||100||7 h 53 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Bucks -9 -110
I don't think the recent return of Kyrie Irving will be enough to help Brooklyn keep this within single-digits on their home floor against the Bucks. Nets won Irving's first game back at home against the Hawks, but Atlanta wa down their best player in Trae Young. In the following two games they were beat by 11 at home by Utah and by 11 on the road against the 76ers.
Keep in mind this team wasn't exactly playing great when Irving was healthy early in the year, if anything they were playing better without him. Now you got Kyrie calling out his own teammates after their recent loss. For as great a talent as he is, he's simply not a great teammate and they need to have to have all hands on deck to simply keep this close against an elite Bucks team.
Bucks are 15-4 ATS this season when listed as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 19-5 ATS last 24 as a road favorite of 6.5 to 12 points. Take Milwaukee!
|01-17-20||Hawks v. Spurs UNDER 230.5||121-120||Loss||-109||12 h 8 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Hawks/Spurs under 230½ -109
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA matchup that has the Spurs hosting the Hawks. I know Atlanta's defense is one of the worst in the league and San Antonio's isn't much better, but I just don't see the pace being at the point needed to eclipse this total.
While the Hawks will be on two days rest, I still think they are going to be a bit fatigued for this one. Atlanta was at Washington last Friday, had to play at Brooklyn two days later and then were back home on just 1 day of rest against the Suns.
As for the Spurs, they are going to be playing on just 1 day of rest after a grueling 4-game road trip that had them go from Boston to Memphis to Toronto and finally end up in Miami.
UNDER is 5-0 in the Hawks last 5 road games. It's also 8-2 in the Spurs last 10 home games off a road trip of 7 or more days and 6-0 in their last 6 vs a team with a losing record. UNDER is also 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in this series. Take the UNDER!
|01-16-20||Celtics v. Bucks -9||123-128||Loss||-109||9 h 28 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Bucks -9 -109
I got no problem here laying a big number with Milwaukee at home against the Celtics in Thursday's big NBA matchup on TNT. Boston simply is not playing great right now. Celtics have lost 4 of 6, including an inexcusable 103-116 setback at home against Detroit last night.
I just don't think they can flip a switch here, especially playing on no rest and their 3rd game in 4 days overall. Not to mention Boston could be down to of their best players, as both Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are listed as questionable.
Bucks are also 19-2 at home, where they are winning by an average of 14.3 ppg and this is one they are going to be highly motivated to get after losing by double-digits at Boston earlier this season. Take Milwaukee!
|01-15-20||Mavs v. Kings OVER 226.5||127-123||Win||100||11 h 55 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Mavs/Kings over 226½ -109
Easy play on the OVER in tonight's late action between the Kings and Mavs. I just don't think Sacramento has any hope here of slowing down this potent Dallas offensive attack. Mavs are No. 1 in the league in offensive efficiency at 114.1 per 100 possessions. Next best is the Bucks at 111.9.
Dallas is lethal in the pick and roll and the Kings are rank in the bottom 10 of the league at defending the pick and roll. Sacramento is giving up 111.8 ppg in their last 5 and have allowed 110 or more in 10 of their last 14.
Key here is the Kings are clicking on the offensive end right now, as they are scoring 111.6 ppg in their last 5 and have scored 110 or more in 7 of 9 overall. Dallas held the 76ers to 91 and the Warriors to 97 in their last 2, but Philadelphia's without Embiid and Golden State is just not very good. Prior to that they had given up 114.4 ppg in their previous 8. Take the OVER!
|01-15-20||Blazers v. Rockets -8||117-107||Loss||-109||11 h 38 m||Show|
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rockets -8 -109
Easy play here on the Rockets laying single digits at home against the Blazers. Houston will be playing on no rest after last night's 110-121 setback at Memphis, but keep in mind they played that game without one of their best players in Russell Westbrook, as he continues to sit out the first of back-to-backs.
Any time the Rockets are off an ugly loss they are worth a look and they come into this one having covered 5 straight off a loss by 10 or more. As for the Blazers, they just aren't playing good basketball right now. They nearly blew a huge double-digit lead in their last game, as they squeaked out a 115-112 win at home over a bad Charlotte team playing on no rest.
Blazers are now a miserable 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games. They are also just 2-7 ATS last 9 on the road, 1-7 ATS last 8 as a dog and 1-8 ATS last 9 as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. Take Houston!
|01-15-20||Wizards v. Bulls OVER 230||106-115||Loss||-103||9 h 57 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Wizards/Bulls over 230 -103
I look for the Bulls and Wizards to easily surpass the big total set for tonight's matchup. It's really hard to not like the OVER with Washington as long as Bradley Beal is in the lineup. Wizards are obviously a better offensive team with Beal on the floor, but what people don't realize is how he negatively impacts the defense. Wizards defense is 14.4 worse per 100 possessions with him on the floor.
On the season Washington is giving up 121.6 ppg away from home and the Bulls can and should hit that mark. Chicago had 110 at the Wizards when these two played about a month ago and shot just 40% from the field in that game.
Other key here is the Bulls who had been playing solid defense are struggling on that side of the ball since Wendell Carter Jr went down. In Chicago's last 6 games they have given up 111 or more points in 5 of those games and the only exception was a game against a depleted Pistons squad. Also, Bulls have gone 8 straight games allowing the opposition to shoot 46% or better from the field. Take the OVER!
|01-15-20||Nets v. 76ers -7.5||106-117||Win||100||11 h 36 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on 76ers -7½ -109
I got no problem laying the points with Philadelphia at home against the Nets. This is a great spot to buy low on the 76ers, as there's a lot of doubt surrounding this team with Embiid out after back-to-back ugly road losses at Dallas (91-109) and Indiana (95-101).
Sure the 76ers aren't as good without Embiid, but you also can't read to much into how bad this team plays on the road. They weren't a good team away from home with Embiid. Philadelphia beat Boston 109-98 without Embiid in their last home game and are now 18-2 at home this season.
This is also a great spot to fade Brooklyn. Nets recently got back Kyrie Irving, but it wasn't enough for them in last night's home game against the Jazz, which they lost 118-107. I don't see it going any better on the road on no rest tonight.
Brooklyn is just 6-13 ATS last 19 in the second of a back-to-back and have failed to cover 5 straight as a road dog. Take Philadelphia!
|01-14-20||Mavs v. Warriors +9||124-97||Loss||-110||13 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night ATS ANNIHILATOR on Warriors +9 -110
Golden State is worth a look as a near double-digit dog at home against the Mavs. Warriors come into this game having lost 8 straight, but we have seen this team sneak up on opponents at home.
Mavs are a team that caught the attention of a lot of people early on this season, but they are just 3-5 SU and 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games. As good as Doncic has been, this is not the same caliber a team without Porzingis, who is dealing with a knee injury.
Dallas did beat the Warriors 141-121 at Golden State earlier this season, but that's a positive here, as it should spark a big effort from the Warriors and they are 17-7 ATS last 2 seasons when revenging a loss of 10 or more. Take Golden State!
|01-13-20||Hornets v. Blazers UNDER 217||112-115||Loss||-105||11 h 2 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Hornets/Blazers under 217 -105
The UNDER is worth a look here in Monday's NBA matchup between the Blazers and Hornets. I just don't see these two teams playing with the kind of pace needed to go over a total of this magnitude.
Charlotte has to be running on fumes as they flew across the country for a game at Utah on Friday and then were at Phoenix last night before making another long trip up north for this game on no rest. Blazers had to return home from a 4-game road trip to face one of the league's best in Milwaukee and will be on just 1-day of rest for this one.
Portland has been playing at a slower pace of late with all the travel and have scored no more than 102 in their last 3 games. Charlotte plays at the slowest pace of any team in the league and we saw how that can impact a game last night against the Suns. Phoenix shot 50% from the field and yet the game only saw a 192 combined points. Same thing in their game against Utah. Jazz shot 51% and the two combined for only 201 points. Take the UNDER!
|01-13-20||Pelicans v. Pistons||117-110||Loss||-109||8 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pistons PK -109
Even though New Orleans comes in off an ugly 35-point loss at Boston, most will be looking to take the Pelicans in this one, as they have been playing well and there's not much to get excited about with how Detroit has been playing.
I just think the poor showing against the Celtics was a sign of a tired team and I look for them to struggle to bounce back in another tough scheduling spot. New Orleans will be playing their 3rd straight road game in a span of just 4 days. Real easy for them to just go through the motions here, especially knowing they got the next two days off before two big home games against the Jazz and Clippers.
Pelicans are just 2-6-1 aTS last 9 after giving up 125 or more points (allowed 140 to Boston) and 0-3-1 ATS last 4 after a loss by more than 10 points. Take Detroit!
|01-12-20||Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 221||102-122||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Warriors/Grizzlies over 221 -109
Easy play on the OVER in Sunday's NBA matchup that has Memphis hosting the Warriors. The books are having a terrible time setting the total high enough in Grizzlies' games of late. The OVER is 12-3 in Memphis' last 15 games.
A big part of that is the Grizzlies' offense, which is absolutely on fire right now. Memphis is averaging 127.4 ppg in their last 5 and have scored 110 or more in 10 straight games. Not only is their offense lighting it up, but they are allowing a ton of points. Grizzlies have given up 112 or more in 5 straight.
OVER is 10-1 in Memphis' last 11 home games and a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 at home against a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER!
|01-12-20||Spurs v. Raptors -3||Top||105-104||Loss||-110||10 h 36 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on Raptors -3 -110
Love the value here with the Raptors laying a small number at home against the Spurs. While Toronto likely won't get back Siakam and Gasol until later this week, they will be welcoming back Powell to the mix.
Regardless of who has been in and out of the lineup, Raptors continue to play at a very high level, especially on the defensive end. Spurs simply can't be trusted on the road with how little defense they play. San Antonio just lost at Memphis and gave up 134 in the process. Spurs are now a mere 5-12 on the road this season, giving up 117 ppg.
San Antonio is also just 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 after giving up 125 or more in their previous game, while Raptors are 16-7 ATS last 23 vs a team with a losing record and 5-1 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take Toronto!
|01-11-20||Bulls v. Pistons -3.5||108-99||Loss||-109||12 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA - Vegas ATS Line MISTAKE on Pistons -3½ -109
I like the value here with Detroit laying a small number at home against the Bulls. Chicago just keeps getting all kinds of respect from the books despite the fact that they haven't been playing well or covering. Bulls have lost 6 straight and failed to cover all 6.
I just don't see it getting better for Chicago in this one. Bulls are really missing big man Wendell Carter Jr, whose absence negatively impacts the team on both sides of the ball, especially on defense.
This is also a really tough scheduling spot for the Bulls. Chicago played at New Orleans on Wednesday, quickly flew back home for a game against Indiana last night and then had to turn around and head to Detroit. Not ideal at all for a young team like the Bulls, who are short handed and lacking confidence. Take Detroit!
|01-10-20||Hornets v. Jazz UNDER 213||92-109||Win||100||13 h 31 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Hornets/Jazz under 213 -109
I like the value here with the UNDER in Friday's NBA matchup that has Utah hosting Charlotte. I just think this is too big a number given how strong the Jazz are defensively and how poor the Hornets are on offense.
Utah ranks 7th in the NBA in defensive efficiency and in their last 5 games are giving up just 101 ppg on 43% shooting. Charlotte ranks 22nd in offensive efficiency, as they are scoring just 104.6 ppg on 44% shooting and that drops to 102 ppg on 43% shooting when on the road.
Another thing here is pace. Both teams rank in the bottom half of the league in pace of play with Charlotte the slowest team in the league.
UNDER is also 28-15 in Utah's last 43 off a home win and 36-18 in their last 54 at home off 2 straight games where they scored 110 or more points. UNDER has also cashed in 7 of their last 9 games vs a team with a losing record. and is 7-1 in the last 8 meetings between these two in Utah. Take the UNDER !
|01-09-20||Cavs +7 v. Pistons||115-112||Win||100||9 h 29 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Cavs +7 -109
The Cavs are worth a look here as a big road dog against the Pistons. These two teams are in the second leg of a home-and-home split as they just played at Cleveland on Tuesday. Detroit won that game 115-113, but needed to outscore the Cavs 31-18 in the 4th quarter to do so.
It's not easy beating a team twice in a row in such a short period of time, even against a bad team like the Cavs. Detroit also has no business laying this big of a number right now. Pistons are down 4 of their best players in Blake Griffin, Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard and Markieff Morris. Prior to beating Cleveland, Detroit had gone just 2-9 in their previous 11 games and only covered the spread in 3 of those contests.
Cavs are 20-7-1 ATS last 28 games vs a team like the Pistons that have won fewer than 40% of their games and Detroit is a mere 3-9-1 ATS last 13 off a win and 1-5 ATS last 6 games at home. Take Cleveland!
|01-08-20||Raptors v. Hornets UNDER 209||112-110||Loss||-110||20 h 10 m||Show|
3* NBA -Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Raptors/Hornets under 209 -110
The UNDER is worth a look in tonight's NBA matchup that has the Hornets hosting the Raptors. UNDER has cashed in 5 of Toronto's last 6 games and a big reason for that is they have had to really slow things down with all the injuries. They have been without Siakam, Powell and Gasol for a while now and just recently lost VanVleet.
Last night they played at home against the Blazers and that game finished with a combined 200 points with a total of 221. Note that Portland had seen each of their previous 6 games see a combined score of 210 or more with 5 of those going for at least 225.
With Toronto playing on no rest, expect them to slow things down even more and Charlotte will have no problem joining in, as they are dead last in the NBA in pace of play and rank in the bottom 10 in offensive efficiency. Take the UNDER!
|01-07-20||Wolves v. Grizzlies -3||112-119||Win||100||10 h 31 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Grizzlies -3 -109
These two teams come in with similar records, as Memphis is 15-22 and the Wolves are 14-21. However, it's not a surprise for the Grizzlies to be struggling and that's why I think there's value with Memphis in this game.
Grizzlies come in having won 3 of 4 and have been covering at a very high rate over the last month. Since Dec. 9th Memphis has gone 10-4-1 ATS with an average cover margin of +6.5 ppg. As for Minnesota, they have won 4 of 6 since losing 11 straight, but those wins have come against the Kings, Nets, Warriors and Cavs.
Wolves are also just 3-7-1 ATS last 11 vs a team with a losing record. Grizz are 7-3 ATS last 10 vs a team with a losing record and 4-1 ATS last 5 at home. Take Memphis!
|01-06-20||Jazz v. Pelicans +3.5||Top||128-126||Win||100||20 h 5 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Pelicans +3½ -115
I love the value here with New Orleans getting points at home against the Jazz. This is just too good a price to pass up with the Pelicans, who are as healthy as they have been all season and playing their best stretch of basketball this year. New Orleans is 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games. The only loss coming by 10-points at the Lakers.
I get Utah is also playing some of their best basketball. Jazz have won 5 straight and 10 of their last 11, but this is not a good spot. Utah is playing their 3rd and final game of a 3-game road trip and have already secured a winning trip with wins at Chicago and Orlando.
The other thing to note with the Jazz and their recent run is the majority of these wins have come against bad teams. In fact, only one of the 10 wins in their 10-1 run have come against a team that has a winning record. Take New Orleans!
|01-05-20||Wolves -2 v. Cavs||118-103||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Wolves -2 -109
I like the value here with Minnesota as a small road favorite against the Cavs. Minnesota has some key guys hurt right now, but Cleveland is a complete mess and are an easy fade at any line close to a pick'em.
Timberwolves have also done a nice job with the recent injuries, as they have won 3 of 5 and are 4-1 ATS during this stretch. Cavs are 8-19 ATS last 27 home games off a home loss and 4-13 ATS last 17 after losing 4/5 of their last 6.
We also see that home dogs who are getting outscored by 9+ points/game are a mere 48-82 (37%) ATS since 1996 when coming off a game where both teams scored 105 or more points. Take Minnesota!
|01-04-20||Pacers -6 v. Hawks||111-116||Loss||-109||11 h 34 m||Show|
4* NBA - Big Money ATS DESTROYER on Pacers -6 -109
I got no problem laying this kind of number with Indiana at Atlanta on Saturday. Pacers are going to be motivated to get a win after losing their last game at home to the Nuggets and the Hawks are the perfect team for them to get right against.
Just when it looked like Atlanta was going to be at full strength for the first time in a long time, John Collins tweaked his back and is out of the lineup. Even if Collins had been able to play, this was going to be a tough spot for the Hawks playing on no rest after laying it all on the line in a hard fought 106-109 loss at Boston last night.
Hawks are just 4-13 ATS last 17 games when listed as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points, 2-10 ATS last 12 off a cover and 1-6 ATS last 7 when playing on 0 days of rest. Take Indiana!
|01-04-20||Jazz -3.5 v. Magic||109-96||Win||100||9 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Jazz -3½ -109
Easy play here on Utah as a small road favorite against the Magic. Orlando is missing a number of key guys to injury and are in an absolute awful scheduling spot. Magic were clearly motivated in their game last night at home against Heat, but given their lack of depth it will be hard to bounce back with another strong effort on no rest. It's also their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Utah on the other hand is in the midst of their best stretch of the season. Jazz have won 4 straight and 9 of 10 overall. They have covered each of their last 5 and have won 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Magic, including a 7-point home win earlier this season. That earlier result is worth noting, as Orlando is a miserable 0-10 ATS when revenging a road loss this season. Take Utah!
|01-04-20||Raptors v. Nets -1||121-102||Loss||-105||17 h 52 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Nets -1 -105
This is a great spot to fade the Raptors and take Brooklyn here at basically a pick'em on their home floor. Toronto is still down 3 starters in Siakam, Powell and Gasol and while they played well without these guys for a while, they are struggle at the moment.
Raptors have lost 4 of their last 6 and will be playing on just 1 day of rest after a grueling defensive game against Miami last time out. In total it's Toronto's 6th game in a 9 day stretch. So while the Nets have lost 4 in a row, they should be the fresher and more motivated team in this one.
Raptors are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 road games after a contest where they allowed 90 or fewer points. Nets are 28-15 ATS last 43 when they come in having lost 4 of t 5 and 23-10 ATS last 33 when revenging a road loss. Take Brooklyn!
|01-03-20||Pelicans +11 v. Lakers||113-123||Win||100||20 h 38 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Pelicans +11 -110
I really like the value here with New Orleans as a double-digit dog against the Lakers. This is just too good a price to pass up with the Pelicans right now. New Orleans comes in playing their best basketball of the season, as they have won and covered 4 straight, including outright wins as road dogs against both the Blazers and Nuggets.
Lakers are clearly the more talented team, but I think they are so good that they have a hard time getting up for a team like the Pelicans. Same can't be said for New Orleans. With all the former Lakers' on the Pelicans roster, this is one they are going to give everything they got.
Pelicans are 31-17 ATS last 48 after 2 or more consecutive wins, while LA is a mere 2-7 ATS last 9 overall, 2-6 ATS last 8 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a game where they failed to cover. Take New Orleans!
|01-03-20||Blazers -5.5 v. Wizards||122-103||Win||100||10 h 25 m||Show|
3* NBA - Public ATS ANNIHILATOR on Blazers -5½ -109
The Blazers are definitely worth a look here as a decently priced road dog against the deplete Wizards. Public will have a tough time backing Portland after many were on them in their last game, which they lost by 24 on the road to the Knicks as a 4-point favorite. That only makes me like them that much more given they are laying an even bigger number in an almost the same spot against the same caliber a team.
I just think the Blazers ran out of gas after making the lengthy trip across the country over the New Years holiday. I expect a much more focused and energized Portland team in this one. As for the Wizards, they are decimated with injuries and there's a decent chance they won't have their best player in Bradley Beal. Either way I don't think they have any shot of keeping this close. Take Portland!
|01-02-20||Thunder v. Spurs UNDER 218.5||109-103||Win||100||12 h 53 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Thunder/Spurs under 218½ -109
Easy play on the UNDER in tonight's NBA matchup between the Spurs and Thunder. Oklahoma City likes to play at a slow pace and that combined with a mediocre offense and solid defense is a great recipe for low-scoring games. UNDER has cashed in each of their last 5 games.
Spurs inability to lock down defensively was a big reason for their early season struggles, but they have been much better on that side of the ball. San Antonio has held 9 of their last 14 opponents to 44% or worse from the field and will be facing a Thunder offense that has shot no better than 45% in their last 4 games.
UNDER is 10-5 in OKC's 15 road games this season, 27-12 in their last 39 as a dog and 11-2 in their last 13 with a line of +3 to -3. Take the UNDER!
|01-02-20||Jazz v. Bulls +4||102-98||Push||0||11 h 7 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Bulls +4 -109
I really like the value here with Chicago as a home dog against the Jazz. The Bulls have been an absolute money-maker over the last month. Chicago is 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games and have covered 7 of their last 9 as an underdog.
Bulls do come into this game off an ugly 123-102 home loss to the Bucks, but that's actually a big positive here, as they are a perfect 8-0 ATS last 8 times they have been coming off a loss. Jazz have won 8 of 9, but it's come against a very favorable run in their schedule. Utah is still a mere 8-9 on the road this season.
Jazz won 104-81 at home against Detroit in their most recent game, but that's also a positive for us, as Utah is a mere 1-5 ATS in their last 6 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take Chicago!
|01-02-20||Nuggets v. Pacers -1||124-116||Loss||-109||10 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pacers -1 -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with Indiana at home. The Pacers have been outstanding on their home floor this season with a 15-3 SU mark. They are outscoring opponents at home by 7.3 ppg and just won in a very similar spot in their last game, beating the 76ers 115-97 as a mere 3.5-point home favorite.
Denver is just getting too much love here, especially with how they have been playing. While the Nuggets are 9-2 in their last 10, they are just 2-2 in their last 4 and off a ugly 130-104 loss at Houston. They are also a mere 1-6-2 ATS in their last 9 games.
Denver is also 1-6-2 ATS last 9 road games vs a team with a winning record and have not covered any of their last 5 games when coming off a loss by 10 or more. Pacers are 5-1 ATS last 6 as a favorite and 5-1 ATS last 6 at home. Take Indiana!
|01-01-20||Blazers v. Knicks +4||93-117||Win||100||9 h 40 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Knicks +4 -105
I really like the value here with the Knicks as a home dog against the Blazers. New York has really improved over the last 3+ weeks. They are 5-4 in their last 9 games after starting the season 4-20. They have covered 6 of their last 9 games and I like them to win this one outright.
Portland has lost 4 straight and it just keeps getting worse for the Blazers. After really dominating the Suns for 3 quarters in their last game they got outscored 39-27 in the 4th to lose 116-122. I just don't trust the Blazers on a mere 1-day of rest after having to travel clear across the country (nearly 3,000 miles) for this game, especially with it being over New Years.
Blazers are a mere 1-10 ATS last 11 games after a contest with a combined score of 235 or more and the Knicks are 12-2 ATS last 14 at home after winning 2 of their last 3 games. Take New York!
|12-31-19||Clippers v. Kings +7||Top||105-87||Loss||-105||15 h 32 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +7 -105
I love the value here with Sacramento as a big home dog against the Clippers. Kings are going to get up for this one against what many consider to be one of the favorites to win it all. Sacramento is also trying desperately to put an end to their losing streak which is up to 7 games now.
Thing is the Kings have been so close in a number of these games during their skid. In fact, 5 have been decided by single-digits, including each of the last 4. Clippers are off a ugly 13-point loss at home to Utah and are just 3-4 in their last 7 games.
I think this will be a tough spot for LA to get up with it being New Year's Eve and them returning home after this game for 4 in a row. Clippers also won't have the services of Beverley and he's a guy that really ignites the energy of this team.
Kings are 18-8 ATS last 26 after a loss by 6 or more, 12-4 ATS last 16 off a cover and 9-1 ATS last 10 when off a road loss where they covered as a dog. Take Sacramento!
|12-31-19||Celtics v. Hornets +7||109-92||Loss||-105||7 h 49 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Hornets +7 -105
Charlotte is worth a look here as a decently priced home dog against the Celtics. Hornets come in having lost 5 straight, but we know we are going to get a big effort here at home against a team like Boston.
As for the Celtics, I think this is a real tough spot for Boston. Celtics have been all over the place of late. They were at Toronto last Wednesday for that Christmas Day matchup, got a day off before having to play back-to-back games at home and now have to travel to Charlotte on New Year's Even before heading right back home (next two days off). Real easy for the Celtics to just go through the motions in this one.
Hornets are a decent team to back when on a skid, as they are 22-10 ATS last 32 after 2 or more consecutive losses. Also, Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points that are off 4 or more losses in the month of December are a strong 49-29 (63%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Charlotte!
|12-30-19||Suns v. Blazers -4||122-116||Loss||-109||18 h 11 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Blazers -4 -109
Easy play here on Portland laying a really small price at home against the Suns. Blazers are coming off a hard fought 128-120 loss at home to Lakers, but were simply not happy with the result and it was their 3rd straight setback after they put together a 4-game winning streak.
I'm expecting a max effort here from Portland and I think that will be more than enough to take down what should be a tired Suns team that is playing their 3rd road game in a 4 day stretch. Phoenix did get an upset win at Sacramento in their last game, but only won by 2 and had lost 8 straight prior to the victory.
Blazers have only failed to cover once in their last 5 when laying points at home. Suns are just 1-6 ATS last 7 off a SU win and 1-9 in their last 10 off a win by 6 or less points. Take Portland!
|12-30-19||Pistons v. Jazz -9||Top||81-104||Win||100||23 h 54 m||Show|
5* NBA -Sharp Money PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jazz -9 -110
This is an easy play here on the Jazz, who should have no problem winning by double-digits at home against a depleted Pistons team. Detroit has 4 key contributors who won't suit up for this game in Blake Griffin, Reggie Jackson, Markieff Morris and Luke Kennard.
It would have been hard enough for the Pistons to keep this close if they were full strength. They had the services of Griffin in their last game at San Antonio, but still managed to lose that game 136-109. Detroit's only win in their last 7 games is against a bad Wizards team at home. All 6 losses have been by 11 or more points.
Utah is also coming in playing some of their best basketball. Jazz have won 7 of their last 8, including a 120-107 win at the Clippers last time out as a 7-point dog. Take Utah!
|12-29-19||Rockets v. Pelicans +5||112-127||Win||100||11 h 3 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pelicans +5 -110
The Pelicans are definitely worth a look here as a home dog against the Rockets. Houston is not going to be at full strength for this one. Russell Westbrook is sitting out (rest) in the second game of a back-to-back and they may also be without big man Clint Capela (questionable).
Either way I like New Orleans to keep this real close and likely win outright. Pelicans have really got things going of late. NO comes in having won 3 in a row and are 4-1 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games, which includes 3 outright wins as a dog.
Rockets are a mere 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a favorite and 4-12 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their home games. Pelicans are also 35-17 ATS last 52 at home vs a team that's won more than 60% of their road games. Take New Orleans!
|12-29-19||Thunder v. Raptors -2.5||98-97||Loss||-109||10 h 58 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Raptors -2½ -109
I really like the value here with the Raptors at basically a pick'em at home against the Thunder. I just feel like the books have over adjusted this line because Toronto is playing on no rest after a game in Boston last night. Raptors won that one without much trouble and had two days off before that game, so I don't think the no rest is a big deal.
Plus the Raptors are 13-4 at home and while OKC has been playing better of late, they are still a miserable 5-9 on the road. If anything the Thunder are going to be the tired team, as they are playing on the road in what will be their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Raptors are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games vs a team with a losing road record, 13-5 ATS last 18 when playing on no rest and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a favorite. Take Toronto!
|12-28-19||Suns v. Kings UNDER 222||112-110||Push||0||11 h 23 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Suns/Kings under 222 -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's NBA matchup that has the Kings hosting the Suns. Just went Sacramento was starting to pick up the pace with De'Aaron Fox and Marvin Bagley back from injuries, both players are hurt once again and out for this game.
Kings are going to have to go back to slowing things down and Phoenix figures to be looking to slow the pace as well, as they will be in the second game of a back-to-back set after playing last night in Golden State.
UNDER is 15-5 in the Suns last 20 road games against division opponents and 21-9 in the Kings last 30 at home when playing only their 2nd game in a 5 day stretch. Take the UNDER 222!
|12-28-19||Hawks +10 v. Bulls||81-116||Loss||-110||10 h 25 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Hawks +10 -110
I like the value here with Atlanta as a double-digit dog against the Bulls. I just think we are seeing Chicago get a little too much love due to the fact the Hawks won't have the services of their best player in Trea Young.
However, the Bulls could be missing two of their top players, as both Lauri Markkanen and Wendell Carter Jr are listed as questionable. Chicago is also a team that simply can't be trusted to lay this kind of number against any team.
Especially at home. Bulls are just 14-30 ATS last 44 home games. They are also a mere 5-13 ATS last 18 times they have played at home against a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games. Hawks are 6-2 ATS last 8 off a loss by 10 or more and 30-16 ATS last 46 as an underdog of 10 or more. Take Atlanta!
|12-27-19||76ers -2.5 v. Magic||Top||97-98||Loss||-110||10 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas No Limit PLAY OF THE MONTH on 76ers -2½ -110
I think the books have made a huge mistake here with the 76ers basically at a pick'em on the road against the Magic. I get Philadelphia has had their struggles on the road and are coming off a massive win over the Bucks on Christmas Day, but I just don't see them having much trouble with Orlando.
It would be one thing if the Magic were playing well, but they are just 2-6 over their last 8 games and only covered twice in their last 7 games. Not to mention Orlando is a mere 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games in the month of December and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 home games as an underdog.
Another key thing here is revenge. Magic embarrassed the 76ers 112-97 at home back in November. That actually sets up a very profitable system on Philadelphia. Favorites revenging a road loss of 10 or more and off a home win by 10 or more are 62-28 (69%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Philadelphia!
|12-26-19||Wolves v. Kings -4||105-104||Loss||-110||12 h 20 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Kings -4 -110
Sacramento is definitely worth a look here laying a short number at home against the slumping Timberwolves. Minnesota comes into this game having lost 11 straight and may once again be without big man Karl-Anthony Towns, who has missed the last 4 and is listed as questionable.
Either way the Timberwolves can't be trusted as a small road dog and this Kings team is one that I think is one to watch out for. While Sacramento has lost all 4 games since De'Aaron Fox returned from injury, he's shown flashes of being 100% back. He had a career-high 31 points in their most recent loss to the Rockets.
Minnesota is 1-6-1 ATS last 8 as an underdog, 1-5-1 ATS last 7 on the road and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a losing record. Take Sacramento!
|12-26-19||Knicks v. Nets -7||94-82||Loss||-109||15 h 11 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nets -7 -109
I got no problem laying the points with Brooklyn at home against the Knicks. The Nets continue to play without Kyrie Irving, but have done just fine without him. If anything, it's had Brooklyn repeatedly showing great value in his absence.
Nets have won 12 of 18 with Irving sidelined and are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games, including a sizzling 8-3 ATS run over their last 11. The Knicks showed some life after making a coaching change, but reverted right back to their losing ways with 3 straight losses and 3 non-covers in their last 3 games.
New York simply doesn't have the talent to win many games, especially with their opponent motivated, which Brooklyn should be having had 4 days off. Defense is also a big problem for the Knicks, as they are giving up 112.7 ppg on the season and 120.8 ppg in their last 5. Knicks two most recent losses were at home and they are just 2-12 ATS last 14 after 2 straight home defeats. Take Brooklyn!
|12-25-19||Bucks v. 76ers +3.5||Top||109-121||Win||100||15 h 32 m||Show|
5* NBA - Christmas Day GAME OF THE YEAR on 76ers +3½ -105
I absolutely love the value here with Philadelphia as a home dog against the Bucks. As difficult as it may be to bet against Milwaukee right now, I just think the price is too good with the 76ers as a home dog.
I really think Philadelphia is going to win this game. The 76ers definitely have the talent to go toe to toe with the Bucks, but more importantly they have the size to give Milwaukee trouble. Not to mention the 76ers have one of the league's best home court advantages. Philadelphia is 15-2 SU at home, where they are outscoring teams by 9.7 ppg.
76ers are 26-9 ATS last 35 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games and 4-1 ATS last 5 as a home dog. Bucks on the other hand are just 3-7 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Take Philadelphia!
|12-25-19||Celtics v. Raptors +3.5||118-102||Loss||-105||12 h 6 m||Show|
4* NBA - Celtics/Raptors VEGAS INSIDER on Raptors +3½ -105
I'll gladly take my chances here with Toronto as a home dog against the Celtics in the first of five NBA games on Christmas Day. The Raptors are going to be without one of their best players in Pascal Siakam, which on paper looks like a big blow given that Siakam leads the team in scoring at 25.1 ppg.
However, he's missed the last 3 and Toronto has not missed a beat. Raptors secured wins over both the Wizards and Mavs at home before losing in overtime at Indiana against a red-hot Pacers team. Boston comes in having won 3 straight and are 7-2 over their last 9, but are just the same team on the road as they are at home.
Celtics are just 8-6 on the road compared to 12-1 at home. Toronto on the other hand is a dominant 13-3 at home this season. Raptors don't just win at home, they are 15-6-1 ATS last 21 at home and are 5-1-2 ATS last 8 times they have been listed as a home dog. Take Toronto!
|12-23-19||Pelicans +6.5 v. Blazers||102-94||Win||100||15 h 37 m||Show|
4* NBA Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pelicans +6½ -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with New Orleans. It's been a really rough go of things for New Orleans to start out the season, but they have shown some signs of turning the corner. They snapped their 13-game skid with a win at Minnesota last week and each of their last two losses have come by 7 or fewer points.
Portland has won 4 straight, but it's nothing to get all that excited about. Their 4 wins have come against the Suns, Warriors, Magic and Timberwolves. Their win over Phoenix came with the Suns missing Booker and was before Ayton returned. Golden State is garbage, Orlando was playing their 3rd road game in 4 days and Minnesota was without Towns. Take New Orleans!
|12-23-19||Jazz +5 v. Heat||104-107||Win||100||11 h 50 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Jazz +5 -110
I like the value here with Utah as a decently priced road dog against the Heat. The Jazz come in having won 5 in a row and are finally figuring out how to close out games. Utah will be without starting point guard Mike Conley, but they posted one of their better offensive performances without him in their last game and have scored 109 or more in all 5 wins.
Utah is also well rested. This will be just their 4th game since Dec. 13th. It's been a very profitable spot to back the Jazz, as they are 29-13 (69%) when playing 4 or less games in a 10 day stretch. Take Utah!
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