|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|01-13-20||Clemson +6.5 v. LSU||25-42||Loss||-110||20 h 14 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Clemson/LSU ATS Vegas INSIDER on Clemson +6½ -110
I like the value with Clemson as a dog in the title matchup with LSU. I just think Clemson is a very scary team when they are a dog and I definitely think LSU's blowout win over Oklahoma has inflated this number to the point where you got to take a shot with Clemson.
I just think people are failing to realize how big a game there was between Oklahoma and the other 3 teams. I don't doubt for a second that Ohio State and Clemson would have destroyed the Sooners had they played them. LSU's offense is great, but people were hyping Ohio State's offense just as much and Clemson held them to 23 and didn't even play their best.
When Clemson has had 2 or more weeks to prepare for a game over the last 3 seasons, they are giving up a mere 12.0 ppg in these matchups. While I think LSU will definitely surpass that, I don't see them eclipsing 30+ points in this game.
Clemson is 7-0 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a winning record, 7-0 ATS last 7 vs a team that averages 31 or more points/game and 10-1 ATS last 11 games vs a team that averages 450 or more total yards/game. Take Clemson!
|01-04-20||Tulane -6.5 v. Southern Miss||Top||30-13||Win||100||581 h 10 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Tulane/S Miss ARMED FORCES BOWL Top Play on Tulane -6½ -110
Easy play here on Tulane in Saturday's early bowl action against Southern Miss in the Armed Forces bow. While the Green Wave ended up finishing the season with a mere 6-6 record, it was more a result of the brutal schedule they had to navigate. Tulane's 6 losses were against Auburn, Memphis, Navy, Temple, UCF and SMU. Four of which won 10 or more games.
No disrespect to Southern Miss, but I just think they are outclassed here. Despite the tough schedule, Tulane still managed to finish 24th in the country in total offense at 456.8 ypg. They were also a respectable 55th in total defense.
Golden Eagles are a very pass-happy team, which is evident by the fact that they finished 118th in rushing. Tulane on the other hand is a ball control team that ranked 11th in rushing at 251.4 ypg. I think the Green Wave are going to play keep away, which is going to wear down the Southern Miss defense and keep the Eagles offense out of sync. Take Tulane!
|01-03-20||Ohio -7.5 v. Nevada||30-21||Win||100||14 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Ohio/Nevada IDAHO POTATO BOWL on Ohio -7½ -107
Easy play here on the Bobcats as a big favorite against the Wolf Pack in Friday's Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. Ohio finished the season with a mere 6-6 record, which might have some wondering why they are laying such a big number with how bad the MAC was.
Thing is, the Bobcats were really close to a double-digit win season. They had 5 losses decided by 10 or fewer with 4 of those by 3 or less. In terms of talent, this may have been the best team in the MAC this year.
Either way, they should have no problem winning by double-digits against a Nevada team that is very fortunate to be in a bowl. Wolf Pack went 7-5, but that was largely due to their schedule. Nevada had just one win against a FBS team that finished with a winning record. This is a team that lost by 71 points to Oregon and 51 to Hawaii. They really got no business even playing in a bowl game. Take Ohio!
|01-02-20||Tennessee -2.5 v. Indiana||23-22||Loss||-114||10 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Tennessee/Indiana GATOR BOWL on Tennessee -2½ -114
I think we are getting a great price here with the Vols laying less than a field goal against the Hoosiers in the Gator Bowl. Tennessee might be one of the worst in the SEC, but I still think there's no doubt they are the more talented team.
I also love how the Vols finished the season with 5 straight wins and were 6-1 ATS over their last 7. Indian went 8-4, but really struggled against the better teams in the Big Ten. In fact, the Hoosiers didn't have a single win all season over a FBS team that finished with a winning record.
Playing on a neutral field hasn't been kind to Indiana, as they are a mere 1-5 ATS last 6 times on a neutral site. Vols are 6-1 ATS last 7 on a neutral site as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games when laying points. They have also covered 4 straight against the Big Ten. Take Tennessee!
|01-01-20||Baylor v. Georgia -7||14-26||Win||100||518 h 27 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Baylor/Georgia SUGAR BOWL on Georgia -7 -110
I know Georgia has a lot of players down on both sides of the football, but I just don't think it's going to be enough to keep them from winning this game. Baylor gets a lot of love for how tough they played Oklahoma, but after watching how overmatched the Sooners were in their semifinal matchup with LSU, there's clearly a massive gap from the top of the SEC to the top of the Big 12.
I get Georgia wasn't as elite as they have been in previous years, but this is still a really talented football team. They are absolutely loaded with talent, so while some key guys will be out I don't think they will be missed in this one.
I get this isn't a great spot for Georgia after losing the SEC title game to miss out on the playoffs, but it's the same thing with Baylor. I actually think the Bulldogs will be fine, as they can look back at last year and how poorly they played in their bowl game after losing the SEC title game to Alabama. Simply put, Baylor just isn't good enough to keep this close. Take Georgia!
|01-01-20||Michigan +7.5 v. Alabama||Top||16-35||Loss||-110||511 h 40 m||Show|
5* NCAAF -Alabama/Michigan New Year's BOWL OF THE YEAR on Michigan +7½ -110
I love the Wolverines getting a touchdown and the hook against Alabama in the Citrus Bowl. While both teams ended the year with losses to their biggest rival, the Crimson Tide's was a lot more costly. Alabama's crushing 45-48 loss to Auburn knocked them out of the playoff race and for the first time since the playoff format was introduced they are not one of the 4 teams participating.
I just think that makes this a really tough spot for Alabama to show up and it's not like we haven't seen this before when the Crimson Tide missed out on the BCS with a late loss and didn't show up in their bowl. On top of a lack of motivation, the Crimson Tide have a number of guys sitting out and are really decimated on the defensive side of the ball.
Michigan had hopes of making the playoff, but those were put to rest a long time ago and I think they will have no problem here getting up for a shot at Alabama. Michigan's defense won't have to worry about facing Tua, which is a big plus, but more than anything I think a Wolverines offense that got better and better as the season went on will be able to do more than enough to keep this close and maybe even win outright. Take Michigan!
|12-31-19||Florida State +4.5 v. Arizona State||14-20||Loss||-110||5 h 3 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Florida St/Arizona St SUN BOWL on Florida State +4½ -110
I like the value here with the Seminoles in their Sun Bowl showdown with Arizona State. I just don't get why the Sun Devils are getting so much love in this one.
Head coach Herm Edwards fired a bunch of his offensive staff and if that wasn't going to be enough to overcome, ASU's two biggest weapons at the skill positions are both sitting out for the draft in running back Eno Benjamin and wide out Brandon Aiyuk.
As for Florida State, they will be down their top two backs with Cam Akers also skipping to prepare for the draft and backup Khalan Labron out with an injury. However, they got plenty of talent at that position and should be able to throw all over this Sun Devils defense. Seminoles ended the year with the 33rd rank passing offense and will be up against a ASU secondary that ranked 114th against the pass. Give me Florida State +4.5!
|12-30-19||Virginia +14.5 v. Florida||28-36||Win||100||22 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Virginia/Florida ORANGE BOWL on Virginia +14½ -105
This is just too many points to pass up on a play with Virginia. There's no question that Florida is the more talented team, but I just feel like this line is a huge overreaction to the Cavaliers embarrassing 62-17 loss to Clemson. The thing you have to keep in mind is Clemson, Ohio State and LSU were on a whole different level than the rest of the country.
This is a Florida team that keep in mind only beat Miami by 4 in their season opener and had several close calls throughout the year against teams they had the talent edge against. I just think with all the talk about how the Gators are going to dominate this game, they might have a hard time here giving Virginia the respect they deserve.
As for the Cavaliers, they have to be itching to get back on the field after that ugly loss to the Tigers and show everyone they are a better team than that score would indicate. I'm not expecting a win by Virginia, but look for this to be a lot closer game than the line would suggest. Take Virginia!
|12-28-19||Oklahoma +14 v. LSU||Top||28-63||Loss||-110||418 h 57 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Oklahoma/LSU Playoffs PLAY OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma +14 -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Sooners at this price. The hype around this LSU team has gotten out of control and the books have drastically inflated this line knowing the public is going to pound the Tigers no matter the number.
I'm not going to say Oklahoma is going to win this game, but I'm extremely confident they keep it within two touchdowns. Sooners have more than shown they can compete on this stage the last two years. Last season they fell 45-34 to Alabama as a similarly priced 13 point dog. The year before they should have beat Georgia, but blew a big lead and wound up losing in 2OT.
Oklahoma's offense might not be as potent as it was the last two years behind a couple of Heisman winners, but the defense is vastly improved. Also, as good as Joe Burrow and the LSU offense is, the defense can be had. They allowed 38 to Texas, 28 to Florida, 41 to Alabama and 37 to Ole Miss. I fully expect them to struggle with Lincoln Riley's offense and a turnover here or there by the Sooners defense and this could get real interesting. Take Oklahoma!
|12-26-19||Miami-FL v. Louisiana Tech +7||Top||0-14||Win||100||370 h 40 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Miami/La Tech INDEPENDENCE BOWL Top Play on Louisiana Tech +7 -110
Easy play here on the Bulldogs catching a touchdown against Miami in the Independence Bowl. I just don't feel Miami is the least bit interested in playing in this game, especially with how they closed out the season with back-to-back losses to FIU and Duke. Given the talent that the Hurricanes have, there's zero excuse for them losing either one of those games other than they just don't care about finishing the season strong.
I just don't think Miami flipped a switch once the regular-season was over and started putting everything they had into beating LA Tech. There's no incentive for the Hurricanes to win this game. The same can't be said for the Bulldogs. Any time a small conference gets a shot at a Power 5, especially a storied program like Miami, they really get up for the game.
That alone is enough reason to take the points with Louisiana Tech, but there's even more reason to like the Bulldogs. The game will be played in Shreveport, Louisiana, which is roughly an hour drive from their campus in Ruston. It's going to feel like a home game for the Bulldogs.
You also have to take into account just how good La Tech head coach Skip Holtz has been at getting his team prepared and motivated for bowl play. Since he took over with the program, they have gone 5-0 in bowl games and he's 7-3 in his career as a head coach. I would not be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Take Louisiana Tech!
|12-23-19||Marshall +17.5 v. Central Florida||Top||25-48||Loss||-110||47 h 56 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - UCF/Marshall GASPARILLA BOWL Top Play on Marshall +17½ -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Thundering Herd in Monday's matchup with UCF in the Gasparilla Bowl. Marshall has thrived in bowl games under head coach Doc Holiday. They have yet to lose since Holiday took over with a perfect 6-0 mark and come in having covered 5 straight bowl games.
UCF had another fantastic season and are without a doubt the more talented team, but bowl games is all about motivation and I just wonder how much the Knights really want to be here. UCF was playing in the Fiesta Bowl last year and the Peach Bowl the year before that. They got nothing to prove here against a team they are favored to beat by more than two touchdowns.
Marshall has the 43rd ranked defense (362.1 ypg) and 42nd in points allowed (23.1 ppg). With the extra time to prepare, I think they can slow down this UCF offense. At the same time, the Knights are vulnerable defensively against the run and the Herd averaged a healthy 195.7 rushing ypg (36th). This is just too many points. Take Marshall!
|12-21-19||UAB +17 v. Appalachian State||17-31||Win||100||255 h 34 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - UAB/App St NEW ORLEANS BOWL on UAB +17 -110
I just feel this is too good a price to pass up with UAB in the New Orleans Bowl. I know the Blazers played a really easy schedule in route to making the C-USA title game and were annihilated by FAU in that C-USA Championship. I just feel that poor perception of UAB is playing into this line.
As for Appalachian State they are really good team, but it's not always about who is more talented in bowl games. It's typically about who wants it more and I really question the motivation here for the Mountaineers. Appalachian State was so close to being the top ranked Group of 5 team, which would have had them in the Cotton Bowl.
I just don't think playing UAB in the New Orleans Bowl will get the juices flowing. Keep in mind it's the same exact bowl they played in last year, which I think also takes away from the excitement.
On top of that, the Mountaineers had to deal with their head coach leaving, for a second straight year. Last year Scott Satterfield bolted before their bowl to take over at Louisville. This year it was Eliah Drinkwitz jumping ship to Missouri. I still think App State wins, just not by the number. Take UAB!
|12-21-19||Washington v. Boise State +3.5||Top||38-7||Loss||-109||253 h 13 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Wash/Boise St LAS VEGAS BOWL Top Play on Boise State +3½ -109
The Broncos are definitely worth a look here catching more than a field goal against the Huskies. There's a lot of talk about this being the last game for Chris Petersen with Washington and how they are going to play their hearts out for him because of that. I just don't that I buy that. If I was a Huskies player I would be a little ticked off that Petersen is walking away.
The other big thing is this was not a great Washington team this year. One that lost at home to Cal and Colorado on the road. This is also a far cry from the kind of bowl that the Huskies are accustomed to. The last 3 years they have played in the Peach, Fiesta and Rose bowls.
You also got some of their best players sitting out, which I think speaks volumes to how little this game really means to them. Left tackle Trey Adams and tight end Hunter Bryant are both skipping to prepare for the draft.
Lastly, this is a Huskies offense that struggled to score and will be facing a really good Boise State defense. The Broncos ranked 35th in total defense (347.5 ypg) and 24th in scoring (20.6 ppg). They are also really good at stopping the run, ranking 19th in the country allowing 113.1 ypg. Broncos are also 10-3 SU in their last 13 vs a team from the Pac-12. Simply put, the wrong team is favored. Take Boise State!
|12-21-19||Central Michigan +4 v. San Diego State||11-48||Loss||-109||248 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - C Mich/SD St NEW MEXICO BOWL on Central Michigan +4 -109
I'll gladly take the points here with Central Michigan against San Diego State in the New Mexico Bowl. The Chippewas had quite the turnaround in the first year under head coach Jim McElwain, as they finished 8-5 after going just 1-11 last year. They also won the MAC West after being picked by many to finish last in the division.
They did come up short in the MAC title game against Miami (OH), but I think that will have them that much more motivated to finish their season strong. As for the Aztecs, you just can't trust Rocky Long's team in postseason play. Long is just 4-9 as a head coach in bowl games. Last year they lost 27-0 to Ohio out of the MAC
Long has basically said his primary goal is to not win bowl games. He's more interested in developing his underclassmen and getting them primed for making a bigger impact the next season.
It's also really hard to trust a team laying points that has a hard as time as San Diego State scoring the football. The Aztecs finished 115 in total offense (330.1 ypg) and 119th in scoring (19.0 ppg). The defense is good, but some of the great numbers are a result of a schedule that simply didn't have them facing many great offenses. I like the Chips and their balanced attack to have some success and really like them to win this outright. Take Central Michigan!
|12-20-19||Kent State v. Utah State -6.5||Top||51-41||Loss||-110||180 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Utah St/Kent St FRISCO BOWL Top Play on Utah State -6½ -110
Easy play here for me on the Aggies. I don't get the line move at all as I thought the books had it priced right when they opened Utah State at -8.5. There's simply too much value here now with them under the key number of 7.
I just think Jordan Love announcing he was leaving early to go pro and then some key guys getting accused of smoking pot had people leaning Kent State in this game. Thing is, Love is playing and those allegations appear to be false, at least from what head coach Gary Anderson is saying.
Love is going to want to show out here to build up his draft stock. I also think the Utah State players will be motivated that much more after hearing the coach had their back. Love should have a field day in this one, as the Golden Flashes are awful defensively. They give up 471.7 ypg and allow 34.6 ppg away from home. They also are allowing opposing QB's to complete 69% of their attempts for 249 ypg and 8.4 yards/ pass attempt.
Also, Kent State went 6-6 and their only decent win was against Buffalo and they trailed 27-6 in the 4th quarter of a crazy 30-27 win. Golden Flashes are a great story as they had quite the turnaround, but they are outclassed in this one. Take Utah State!
|12-14-19||Army v. Navy -10||Top||7-31||Win||100||80 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Army/Navy NO LIMIT Top Play on Navy -10 -110
I got no problem laying double-digits with the Midshipmen in Saturday's huge rivalry game with Army. Some might think Navy will be looking ahead to their bowl, while Army is going to treat this like it's their bowl game. Sure the Black Knights are going to come to play, but don't think for a second that the Midshipmen aren't 100% focused on this game.
A big reason for that is they come in having lost 3 straight in the series after they had rattled off 14 wins in a row over Army. A big reason for the Black Knights recent success is they for the first time in a long time had the better talent on the field. This year Army has underperformed big time and finished just 5-7, despite a schedule that had many calling for at least 8 wins.
Navy has played the much tougher schedule and are 9-2. Midshipmen are the better team on both side of the ball and I just think they come out with a chip on their shoulder Saturday and win here by at least 14.
Army is just 1-9 ATS last 10 as a neutral field dog of 7.5 to 14 points and have lost in this spot by an average score of 35 to 10. Take Navy!
|12-07-19||Wisconsin +17 v. Ohio State||21-34||Win||100||60 h 39 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Big Ten Championship VEGAS INSIDER on Wisconsin +17 -115
I really like the value here with the Badgers getting three scores against the Buckeyes in Saturday's Big Ten Championship Game. The public is going to be on Ohio State in this one. Not only because they are off an impressive 56-27 blowout win at Michigan last week, but because of the fact they beat Wisconsin 38-7 with a 431 to 191 edge in total yards when these two played in the regular-season.
As lopsided as the box score was in that first meeting, Wisconsin held their own for a good chunk of that game. Ohio State was only up 10-0 at the half and 24-7 going into the 4th quarter. I don't think Wisconsin's offense can play any worse than they did in that game and they closed out the season really strong on the offensive side of the ball, scoring 37 or more in each of their last 3.
The other big factor here is the health of Buckeye's star quarterback Justin Fields. He's probable to play with a knee injury, but I don't think he's going to be playing at 100%. I could definitely see him not utilizing his legs like he has and I think taking away his ability to run really makes things easier on the Wisconsin defense. They should also be better off having already faced this offense once.
Badgers are 32-15 ATS last 47 vs excellent offenses that average 450 or more yards/game and a perfect 8-0 ATS last 8 times they have been on the road when revenging a loss where they scored 14 or fewer points. Take Wisconsin!
|12-07-19||Georgia +7.5 v. LSU||Top||10-37||Loss||-110||56 h 34 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Georgia/LSU SEC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Georgia +7½ -110
I love the value here with Georgia keeping this within a touchdown against LSU in the SEC Championship Game. LSU has been the talk of college football this year and it's only a matter of time before Tigers quarterback Joe Burrow is named this year's Heisman winner. I just think with how the public is pounding LSU right now, it's resulted in too good a price to pass up with Georgia.
The biggest thing that I think people are overlooking in this game is Georgia's defense and part of that is the public just doesn't think this LSU offense can be stopped. The Bulldogs defense was already going to be fired up for this game and I think all the Burrow talk will have them playing with a massive chip on their shoulder. Keep in mind Georgia hasn't allowed more than 17 points in any game this season and are excellent against both the run and the pass.
Ed Orgeron has proven he's more than just a motivator, but I still give the coaching edge to Georgia's Kirby Smart. People were saying the same things about Georgia the last two years when they met up with Alabama in the national title game in 2017 and in last year's SEC title game. They lost both of those games, but should have won both meetings.
Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are outgaining teams by 125 or more total yards and off a game where they gained 6.75 or more yards/play are 60-28 (68%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. At the same time, neutral field underdogs that are outrushing opponents by 100 yards/game are 36-11 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take Georgia!
|12-07-19||Hawaii +14 v. Boise State||10-31||Loss||-110||55 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - MWC Championship ATS ANNIHILATOR on Hawaii +14 -110
This is too good a price to pass up with the Rainbow Warriors as a two touchdown dog against the Broncos. Boise State is the household name and are nationally ranked, so no surprise the public is on the favorite in this one. I'm not saying Hawaii is going to win this game outright, but I'm confident they will put up a fight and keep this within two touchdowns.
I know Boise State won the regular-season meeting by 22 at home, but there's reason to believe that Hawaii can make up the ground. Broncos only had a 518 to 438 edge in total yards and 29 to 24 advantage in first downs. The difference in that game was the Warriors turned it over 4 times to Boise State's 1 turnover.
I also like the fact that all the pressure is on the Broncos, as they need this win to have any shot at playing in the Cotton Bowl. Hawaii on the other hand can play loose, as they really got nothing to lose.
Rainbow Warriors don't have the best defense, but road teams that are coming off a game where they allowed 7.25 or more yards/play, who have an experienced QB are a dominant 72-36 (67%) ATS over the last 5 seasons if facing a team with an inexperienced QB. Take Hawaii!
|12-01-19||Army v. Hawaii -2||31-52||Win||100||15 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Army/Hawaii BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Hawaii -2 -105
I think the public perception here is that because the Rainbow Warriors have already locked up a spot in the MWC title game next week, they aren't going to show up for this one. I just don't think that's the case. With a win the Rainbow Warriors would improve to 9-4 and that means they would have two shots to get to that elusive 10-win mark.
As for Army, this has been a season to forget, as the Black Knights have come nowhere close to meeting expectations. Army has won their last two, but against two awful teams in UMass and VMI. Their other 3 wins are against Rice, UTSA and Morgan State. They just aren't very good.
This is also a horrible matchup for the Knights, as they are not good at defending the pass, especially teams like Hawaii that can really stretch the field with their air attack. Look for the Warriors to score at will and cruise to an easy win and cover. Take Hawaii!
|11-30-19||Texas A&M v. LSU -16.5||7-50||Win||100||88 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Texas A&M/LSU Prime Time ATS DESTROYER on LSU -16½ -110
I got no problem here laying the points with the Tigers at home against the Aggies. LSU is 100% locked in right now. Even with a spot in next week's SEC title game locked up, I don't think it's going to stop them from winning here by 20+ on senior day, especially with this being a night game.
Texas A&M is better than they get credit for, as they have played a brutal schedule, but they still are now match for the Tigers. I also think this is a bit of a flat spot for them coming off that emotional game at Georgia last week.
Aggies are just 4-17 ATS last 21 on the road with a total of 63 or more and 12-28 ATS last 40 on the road vs teams who are outscoring opponents by 17+ ppg.
History is also on our side. Home favorites of 10.5 to 21 points with an experienced QB back as their starter are 51-19 (73%) ATS over the last 5 seasons if they come in having outgained their last two opponents by 125 or more total yards. Take LSU!
|11-30-19||North Carolina -10 v. NC State||41-10||Win||100||28 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - UNC/NC State ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on North Carolina -10 -110
Easy play here for me on the Tar Heels winning by more than 10 at rival NC State. No question the Wolfpack will play hard here against their in-state rivals, but they just don't have enough talent or healthy bodies to make a game of it.
NC State has been on a complete free fall, as they enter having lost 5 straight, including a heartbreaker 26-28 setback at Georgia Tech in their most recent game to put to bed any hopes of getting to a bowl. UNC has been better than expected in the first year under Mac Brown, but they still need one more win to get bowl eligible.
All 6 of the Tar Heels' losses this season have come by 7-points or less, 3 of those decided by a field goal or less, including a mere 1-point loss at home to Clemson. Note that these two teams have played 3 common opponents and UNC has outgained those 3 teams by 3 ppg, while NC State has been outscored by 27.0 ppg.
Wolfpack are 0-6 ATS the last 2 seasons when listed as an underdog and have lost in this spot by a ridiculous 30.6 ppg. Take North Carolina!
|11-30-19||Notre Dame -16 v. Stanford||45-24||Win||100||29 h 31 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - ND/Stanford Rivalry PLAY OF THE WEEK on Notre Dame -16 -110
The Fighting Irish are worth a look here as a big road favorite against the Cardinal. Notre Dame has really responded well to that ugly loss to Michigan, as they have rattled off 4 straight wins. Each of the last 3 have come in blowout fashion. They crushed Duke 38-7 as a 7-point road favorite, rolled Navy 52-20 as a 7.5-point home favorite and destroyed BC 40-7 as a 20.5-point favorite.
Irish are clearly okay with going to a New Year's Day bowl and they can pretty much lock up a spot with a win here. Stanford on the other hand has lost 3 straight and failed to cover all 3. The most recent being a 20-24 home loss to rival Cal, which marked their 7th loss of the season and put to rest any hopes of getting to a bowl game.
With K.J. Costello expected to miss this game, I just don't know how the Cardinal offense is going to be able to score enough to keep this close. Their defense has given up 31 or more in 3 of their last 5 and this Irish offense is one of the best in the country averaging 36.4 ppg, scoring almost 10 points more than what their opponents allow.
ND is 23-10 ATS last 33 vs bad defensive teams that are allowing 425 or more yards/game and 5-1-1 ATS last 7 road games vs a team with a losing record. Cardinal are just 2-8 ATS last 10 overall and 1-5 ATS last 6 off a loss. Take Notre Dame!
|11-30-19||Indiana v. Purdue +7||Top||44-41||Win||100||91 h 50 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Purdue +7 -115
I love the value here with the Boilermakers catching a touchdown at home against the Hoosiers. I think the fact that Purdue is sitting at 4-7 and can't get to a bowl has people thinking they won't show up. I don't think that will be the case at all. If anything it just continues a run here of the Boilermakers being undervalued, as they have covered 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall.
Indiana's already got 7-wins, so they are just playing to get to a slightly better bowl, but I also think they could be out of gas here after playing their last two games against big time opponents in Penn State and Michigan.
Hoosiers defense struggled against both the Nittany Lions and Wolverines. Road teams who are outscoring opponents by 7+ ppg are just 45-87 (34%) ATS after allowing 31 or more in 2 straight over the last 10 seasons. Boilermakers are also a dominant 13-4 ATS last 17 as an underdog. Take Purdue!
|11-29-19||Boise State -13.5 v. Colorado State||31-24||Loss||-110||41 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Boise State -13½ -110
I think we are getting a bit of a discount here on Boise State, as the perception here is that the Broncos won't be 100% motivated given they have already locked up the MWC Mountain Division and spot in next week's MWC title game against Hawaii.
I'm just not buying it. Boise State is trying to make a New Year's Six Bowl and they can also do something they have never done before in MWC play, that's finish the season with an undefeated record in league play.
If there's any team that's going to be lacking motivation it's Colorado State. I could have seen the Rams getting up for this one if Boise needed to win to make the title game, but that's not the case. There's also no hopes for an upset to get to a bowl, as they suffered their 7th loss of the season last week in a hard fought 17-7 loss at Wyoming.
Broncos have not taken it easy on bad teams. They are 7-1-2 ATS last 10 vs a team with a losing record, including 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing home record. Take Boise State!
|11-29-19||Iowa -4.5 v. Nebraska||Top||27-24||Loss||-109||101 h 51 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Big Ten GAME OF THE YEAR on Iowa -4½ -109
I cashed in on Nebraska last week at Maryland and the Cornhuskers didn't disappoint, as they took out a season worth of frustration in a 54-7 victory over the Terps. However, that win doesn't change the outlook on this Nebraska team and I'll gladly back a much better Iowa team laying less than a touchdown on Friday.
Hawkeyes have owned the Cornhuskers of late with 4 straight wins against their rivals. I'm confident they make it 5 in a row, as I think the conditions for this game will heavily favor Iowa. It's going to be miserable with rain expected throughout. That's going to allow the Hawkeyes to focus that much more on a one-dimensional Nebraska offense.
As for the Cornhuskers defense, don't be fooled by their big effort against Maryland. Prior to holding the Terps to a mere 7-points they had allowed 30+ in 4 straight games and even Maryland was able to run for 149 against them. Iowa should control both sides of the ball and win here easily.
Hawkeyes are 20-7 ATS last 27 as a road favorite of 7 or less, while the Cornhuskers are a mere 4-15 ATS last 19 at home and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a home dog.
|11-23-19||Boise State -8.5 v. Utah State||56-21||Win||100||13 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on Boise State -8½ -110
Some might be hesitant to play this game because of the uncertainty with both starting quarterbacks. However, I feel there's value here with Boise State laying single digits. I just think the Broncos have the much better QB depth and there's a more likely chance that the Aggies star quarterback Jordan Love doesn't play.
Thing is, even with Love I don't know that Utah State could keep this close. Boise State is one of the best Group of 5 teams out there and got a ton at stake in this one. A loss here would likely cost the Broncos the Mountain Division title and a spot in the MWC title game.
I think you can really see the talent difference in this game by looking at how these two have performed against the 3 common opponents they have played. Boise State is outscoring these 3 teams by 3.7 ppg, while Utah is getting outscored by 15.6 ppg. Defense is where the Broncos were much better. They only gave up 21.3 ppg and 326.7 ypg against these 3 team, where Utah State allowed 31.3 ppg and 484.7 ypg.
Broncos are 72-48 ATS (60%) ATS in their last 120 road games and are 7-3-2 ATS last 12 conference games and 8-0-1 ATS last 9 after allowing 20 points or less in their last game. Take Boise State!
|11-23-19||Troy +14 v. UL-Lafayette||3-53||Loss||-110||8 h 58 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Troy +14 -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Trojans and that high-powered offense. Troy comes into this game averaging 39.0 ppg and 478 ypg. Numbers that are even better in Sun Belt play, as they are scoring 43.3 ppg and putting up 505.5 ypg against conference opponents this season.
I get Lafayette has a really good offense of their own and have the better defense on paper, but all signs here point to a back and forth shootout. One that I wouldn't be surprised at all if Troy won outright. We know we are going to get a big effort from the Trojans, as they still need a win to get bowl eligible and next week's game at home against App State is far from a sure thing.
As for the Ragin' Cajuns, they are comfortably sitting at 5-1 and 1-game up on Arkansas State for the top spot in the West Division. Which is basically a 2-game lead given they own the head-to-head tiebreaker. A loss here is not the end of the world. They showed signs of being a bit complacent last week, as they only beat South Alabama by 10 as a 28-point favorite and were outgained by the Jaguars 467 to 391.
Troy is off a 63-27 blowout win at Texas State and prior to that beat a good Georgia Southern team 49-28 at home as a 2.5-point dog. Trojans are 9-1 ATS last 10 on the road after a win by 35 or more , 13-3 ATS last 16 on the road vs a team with a winning home record, 12-4-1 ATS last 17 conference games and 7-2 ATS last 9 in the month of November. Take Troy!
|11-23-19||Syracuse v. Louisville -9||Top||34-56||Win||100||101 h 55 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - ACC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Louisville -9 -110
Easy play for me on the Cardinals laying single-digits at home against the Orange. I just think we are getting a great price with Louisville due the fact that Syracuse finally showed some life in last week's 49-6 win as a 10.5-point road dog at Duke. That would be great if the Blue Devils were playing well, but Duke is on a free fall. Blue Devils have been outgained now by 100+ yards in 3 straight and have lost the yardage battle in 6 straight.
Even though they won by a whopping 43-points, Syracuse only outgained the Blue Devils by 116. The only other two teams the Orange have won the yardage battle against all season are Holy Cross and Liberty. This is a team that got outgained by 250 yards to Maryland and 243 a couple weeks ago against BC.
Louisville has one of the best offenses people don't know about. They are averaging 32.3 ppg and 438 ypg. What's impressive is it's come against opponents who on average are allowing just 25.1 ppg and 377 ypg. They should score at will here and while the defense isn't great, I think they easily win by two touchdowns.
Orange are 2-11 ATS last 13 off an upset win by 14 or more points and have lost in this spot by an average of 20 ppg. Take Louisville!
|11-23-19||Nebraska -6 v. Maryland||54-7||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Big Money ATS MONEYMAKER on Nebraska -6 -110
The Cornhuskers are worth a look here laying less than a touchdown on the road against the Terps. Nebraska is simply showing value here because of how disappointing a season they have had and the fact that they enter having lost 4 straight.
As bad as it's been for the Cornhuskers, it's been even worse for the Terps. Maryland just can't catch a break with the injury bug. They just don't have enough healthy good players to be competitive. The evidence is in the numbers. Terps are getting outgained by 221.2 yards/game in Big Ten play. Nebraska in comparison is only getting outgained by 12.4 yards/game.
There's also a big motivational edge here with Nebraska still having an outside shot at bowl game if they can win out, while the Terps have no shot at a bowl and are struggling to just keep games close. I wouldn't be surprised at all if the Cornhuskers won going away. Take Nebraska!
|11-23-19||Western Kentucky v. Southern Miss -3.5||28-10||Loss||-110||30 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Southern Miss -3½ -110
I really like the value here with Southern Miss laying a short number at home against Western Kentucky. Not only do I think the Golden Eagles are the better team, they have a massive motivation edge in this one.
Thanks to LA Tech having both their starting QB and top wide out suspended, Southern Miss has a legit shot at winning the West and playing in the C-USA championship Game. They do need the Bulldogs to lose at UAB, but they are still without those two suspended players and are a 7-point dog. However, the most important thing is winning this game, so we can expect a max effort.
Western Kentucky is just 1-game back of first in the East, but trail both FAU and Marshall and lost both the head-to-head matchups against those two teams. They are already bowl eligible, so there's not much at stake. Not to mention they are poised for a letdown off that big upset win over Arkansas last time out. Take Southern Miss!
|11-23-19||South Alabama +10 v. Georgia State||15-28||Loss||-109||5 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on South Alabama +10 -109
The Jaguars are worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Panthers. South Alabama is just 1-9 overall and have lost 8 straight, but that has not deterred this team from playing hard down the stretch. Just last week they only lost by 10 at Lafayette, who is tied with Appalachian State for the best record in the Sun Belt. The Jaguars easily covered as a 28-point dog and are now 5-1 ATS last 6 games.
As for Georgia State, I think the Panthers could be in for a bit of a letdown here off last week's blowout loss at home to Appalachian State. That was a massive game for Georgia State, as they were in a position to where if they won that game and won out, they would have won the East and would be headed to the Sun Belt title game. Now they are simply playing for pride with a big rivalry game on deck against Georgia Southern.
Panthers are just 2-9 ATS last 11 off a SU loss and have failed to cover 6 straight in Weeks 10 thru Week 13. They are also 0-7-1 ATS last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 4-12-2 ATS last 16 conference games. Jaguars are 7-1 ATS last 8 conference games. Take South Alabama!
|11-19-19||Ohio -20 v. Bowling Green||Top||66-24||Win||100||10 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Ohio/BG MAC PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ohio -20 -110
I like the Bobcats to cruise to a easy win and cover at Bowling Green Tuesday night. Ohio may have had their MAC title hopes crushed with back-to-back heartbreaking losses to Miami (OH) and Western Michigan, but there's still a ton to play for in these last two games, as the Bobcats need to win out to make a bowl.
Ohio may have just 1 more win on the resume than the Falcons, but the talent gap between these two is really noticeable. While the Bobcats are just 3-3 in MAC play, they are outscoring teams by 2 ppg and outgaining them by 23.6 ypg. Bowling Green is getting outscored by 16.3 ppg and 141.4 ypg in MAC play.
The biggest thing for me here is I just don't see the Falcons defense being able to keep the Bobcats from putting up a huge number. Ohio averages 200 ypg and 5.1 yards/carry on the ground. They will be facing a BG defense that gives up 212 ypg and 5.2 yards/carry.
Also, Falcons have nothing left to play for after last week's 44-3 loss to Miami (OH), as the best they can finish is 5-7. BG is also just 3-11 ATS last 14 as a dog of 10.5 to 21 points and 1-7 ATS as a dog of any number this season. Take Ohio!
|11-16-19||Oklahoma -10 v. Baylor||Top||34-31||Loss||-110||53 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Oklahoma/Baylor Big 12 PLAY OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -10 -110
There's plenty of people talking about how Baylor deserves to be ranked higher than No. 12 with their perfect record, but I'm with the playoff committee. I just don't think the Bears are anywhere close to as good as their record and I think it could get ugly on Saturday in Waco.
Oklahoma is hands down the most talented team in the Big 12. They had a slip up at Kansas State, but I think more of that was them just not giving the Wildcats the respect they deserve. They won't make that mistake against the Bears.
The biggest thing for more me is I don't think Baylor's defense can contain Jalen Hurts and this high-powered Oklahoma offense. That's a big problem, as I don't think the Bears have the goods offensively to go keep this close if the Sooners put 30+ on the board.
Bears are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when listed as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma has failed to cover their last two in large part because of turnovers. They posted a -2 turnover margin in both ATS losses to K-State and Iowa State. Sooners are 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have posted back-to-back games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take Oklahoma!
|11-16-19||LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5||58-37||Win||100||35 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Public Money ATS DESTROYER on Ole Miss +21½ -105
While I don't think Ole Miss is going to pull off the massive upset against No. LSU, I do think there's a ton of value with the Rebels getting more than three touchdowns at home, especially with this being a prime time night game.
This is Ole Miss's Super Bowl, while LSU is in about as big a letdown spot as they could be in off that upset win over Alabama last week. The Tigers have just not responded well off a big road win, as they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off an upset win as a road dog. They are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record.
Ole Miss is also a team that's been getting disrespected by the books consistently this year, especially in SEC play. Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their 6 conference games this season. Take Ole Miss!
|11-16-19||Minnesota v. Iowa -3||19-23||Win||100||21 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Iowa/Minn Big Ten PLAY OF THE WEEK on Iowa -3 -103
One of the more difficult things to do in college football is back bounce from a big win at home on the road against a top tier team. That's the spot we find the Gophers this Saturday, as they make the difficult trip down to Iowa City for a late afternoon kickoff at Kinnick.
Those that bet against Minnesota last week are all over the Gophers as a slim 3-point dog against Iowa, but I feel the smart money is on the home team. Iowa is a few plays away from being 9-0 themselves. The Hawkeyes 3 losses have all come down to the wire, as they lost 10-3 at Michigan, 17-12 at home to Penn State and 24-22 at Wisconsin this past Saturday. All 3 of those teams are currently ranked in the Top 15 of CFP Rankings.
I was actually impressed with how well Iowa played in Madison. Even though they gave up 300 on the ground to the Badgers, they still held Wisconsin to just 24 points. Iowa is giving up just 11.7 ppg and 289 ypg. I really think that defense is going to be the difference on Saturday. Hawkeyes are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 when facing a team that averages 37 or more points/game.
You also have to take into account this is by far the toughest road game of the season for Minnesota, who's played 6 of their first 9 at home and their 3 road games have been against Fresno, Purdue and Rutgers. They crushed Rutgers, but only won by 3 at Fresno and by 7 at Purdue. Take Iowa!
|11-16-19||Georgia -3 v. Auburn||21-14||Win||100||31 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAF -Georgia/Auburn SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia -3 +100
I really like Georgia to go into Auburn and easily cover the 3. The Bulldogs had that ugly showing in their lone loss to South Carolina and have been all business since. They rolled Kentucky at home 21-0, beat Florida in Jacksonville 24-17 (wasn't as close as the final score) and just beat Missouri 27-0.
I have to believe there's a new sense of life with this team after being ranked No. 4 in the recent CFP poll. They know now that if they win out they are in and I just don't think Auburn will be as big a challenge as some think. Sure the Tigers have a great defense, but they have allowed 165+ rushing yards in their last two. If they aren't able to slow down Georgia's ground game they are in big trouble.
I just don't see Bo Nix and that Auburn offense being able to do enough here for them to win this game, which is basically what they have to do for us to not cover. Bulldogs are a dominant 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after the first month of the season and have covered 13 of their last 15 road games on Saturday. Auburn is also 0-6 ATS last 3 season off a home win. Take Georgia!
|11-16-19||Florida v. Missouri +7||23-6||Loss||-110||46 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +7 -110
The Tigers are worth a look as a touchdown dog at home against the Gators. This is the opportune time to buy low on Missouri, whose last 3 games have saw them lose at Vandy 21-14, at Kentucky 29-7 and most recently at Georgia 27-0.
As bad as those results look, I'm confident we are going to get the best the Tigers have to offer at home against the No. 11 Gators. History is also on our side here. Missouri is 42-21 ATS last 63 off a loss by 1 or more, 34-16 in their last 50 at home off a road loss and 21-9 ATS last 30 when they come in off 3 straight losses.
Florida is also a team that I think is a bit overvalued. They have been great against the spread of late, but elite teams (won more than 80% of their games) that have beat the spread by 49 or more in their last 5 games are just 35-73 (32%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take Vanderbilt!
|11-16-19||Wisconsin v. Nebraska +14.5||37-21||Loss||-109||17 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nebraska +14½ -109
Solid value here with the Cornhuskers getting two touchdowns plus the hook at home against the Badgers. To say this season has been a disappointment for Nebraska would be an understatement, but I expect the best they have to offer Saturday against the nationally ranked Badgers.
If there wasn't already enough motivation for the Cornhuskers, they should get it from the comments made by Wisconsin linebacker Zack Baun, who had this to say about the rivalry. "I think it was a big rivalry back before they had the trophy, so they created the trophy, and now it hasn't left here. I don't know if it's much of a rivalry anymore."
Not only does that add a little fire for Nebraska, it tells me the Badgers aren't taking this game all that seriously. They were already in a big letdown spot coming off two big games against ranked teams in Ohio State and Iowa.
Wisconsin is just 2-5 ATS last 7 on the road, 4-10 ATS last 14 off a win and 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Nebraska!
|11-15-19||Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -6||10-31||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Friday Night C-USA NO-BRAINER on Marshall -6 -110
With the recent news that Louisiana Tech starting quarterback J'Mar Smith and top wide out Adrian Hardy are both suspended for this game, this is an easy play on the Thundering Herd at home.
I just don't think the Bulldogs will be able to overcome the loss of Smith, especially on the road against a good Marshall team that is only giving up 24.0 ppg and 371 ypg. Smith has thrown for almost 2,500 yards with a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. He's also second on the team with 226 rushing yards. He's basically got all the reps and it's just asking too much of an inexperienced backup to play well on such short notice.
Marshall has struggled to cash at the betting window of late, but they are 31-15 ATS last 46 when they come in having failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Thundering Herd also own an impressive 16-5-2 ATS mark in their last 23 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Marshall!
|11-12-19||Eastern Michigan v. Akron +17.5||42-14||Loss||-115||8 h 55 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Weekday MAC Attack CASH COW on Akron +17½ -115
I'm well aware of how bad the Zips have been both SU and ATS this season, but I think we are getting too good a price to pass up with the home dog Tuesday night. Eastern Michigan is not the kind of team that should be laying 3 scores on the road. The Eagles have lost 4 of 5 and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
Road favorites who are allowing 31+ points/game and have allowed 31 or more in each of their last two are just 34-70 (32.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Eastern Michigan is also just 2-9 ATS under head coach Chris Creighton when his Eagles are playing a horrible team that's won less than 25% of their games. Take Akron!
|11-09-19||Nevada +17.5 v. San Diego State||Top||17-13||Win||100||21 h 45 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Nevada +17½ -105
Love this spot and the price we are getting with the Wolf Pack. This is just too many points for San Diego State to be laying with how much they struggle to score. Aztecs are only averaging 21.7 ppg on the season and it actually gets worse when they play at home, where they are scoring just 16.3 ppg.
Nevada's defense isn't great, but they did just hold New Mexico to a mere 10-points last week, so they can keep SDST in check. Last time out the Aztecs were a 11.5-point favorite at home to UNLV and barely won 20-17. San Diego State is 3-11 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite. Take Nevada!
|11-09-19||Iowa State v. Oklahoma -14||41-42||Loss||-109||94 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Oklahoma -14 -109
I like the Sooners to lay it on the Cyclones and easily cover the two touchdown spread this Saturday. This will be the first time that Oklahoma takes the field since they had that shocking 48-41 loss at Kansas State two weeks ago. I believe that loss was more of the Sooners just being a little too cocky and not giving the Wildcats the respect they deserved.
I have to believe it hasn't been a fun two weeks of practice for Oklahoma and we are going to get their very best coming out of the bye. This is also a game the Sooners have had circled, as they have definitely not forgot about the last time Iowa State came to Norman and beat them 38-31 as a 31-point underdog.
Iowa State is also a good but not great team this year. I think that's pretty evident by their last game at home against Oklahoma State, where they lost 34-27 as a 11-point favorite. I know the Cyclones have a decent defense, but I don't think they got any shot here of slowing down Jalen Hurts and that Sooners offense. Take Oklahoma!
|11-09-19||Florida International +10.5 v. Florida Atlantic||7-37||Loss||-108||58 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Conf-USA PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida International +10½ -108
I really like the value here with FIU catching double-digits against rival FAU. The Golden Panthers have got fire after a slow start. FIU is 4-1 in their last 5 after starting out 1-3. They have failed to cover 3 straight, but I think they go from being overvalue to undervalued with how much the public is on this Owls team.
FAU has been a solid fade at home, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. They are also just 15-29 ATS last 44 at home when listed as a favorite. Panthers are also a team to back late in the year, as they are 7-3 ATS last 10 after 3 straight conference games. Take FIU!
|11-09-19||UTSA +4 v. Old Dominion||24-23||Win||100||12 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on UTSA +4 -105
I like the value here with UTSA catching more than a field goal against the Monarchs. UTSA has gone 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. Old Dominion hasn't won a game since beating Norfolk State in the opener and have covered only twice in their last six games. Last they were favored was as a 3-point home favorite to ECU and they lost that outright. Road Runners have been a dog of 6 or less twice this year and won both outright, including a double-digit win at UTEP. Take UTSA!
|11-09-19||Texas Tech v. West Virginia +3||Top||38-17||Loss||-110||86 h 47 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +3 -110
Love the Mountaineers as a home dog this Saturday against the Red Raiders. This couldn't be a better time to buy low on West Virginia, who comes in having lost 4 straight. Even though the Mountaineers easily covered as a 17.5-point home dog last time out at Baylor, most won't be able to get past the fact that they have scored exactly 14 points in each of their last 3 games.
The thing you have to keep in mind with the recent slide is the fact that it's come against arguably the four best teams in the Big 12 in Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor. Texas Tech is definitely a team they can beat and there's plenty of motivation still for West Virginia, as they need to win 3 of their last 4 to make a bowl.
Another thing is the Red Raiders should not be favored on the road against any team in the Big 12. Texas Tech is 0-4 on the road this season, where they are giving up 38.2 ppg and 548.2 ypg. Also, Red Raiders have lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells is 0-8 ATS as a head coach when his team comes in having lost 4/5 of their last 6. Take West Virginia!
|11-08-19||Washington -9.5 v. Oregon State||Top||19-7||Win||100||70 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington -9½ -110
I absolutely love the Huskies here in what I feel is a huge bounce back spot following a couple of tough losses against two of the Pac-12's best in Oregon and Utah. I get crazy things can happen in weekday games and Corvallis is not an easy place to play. However, I just think the talent gap here is too much for the Beavers to keep this to single-digits.
Last time Washington went on the road they were a slim 6-point favorite at Arizona and they annihilated the Wildcats 51-27. As for Oregon State, not question they are improved, but they still haven't been anyone worth a lick. Last time they hosted a decent team was Utah in the middle of October. Beavers were a mere 14-point dog and got annihilated 52-7.
I just don't think it's asking a lot for Washington to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. Oregon State is just 2-7 ATS last 9 at home and Huskies are a dominant 14-5 ATS last 19 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Washington!
|11-08-19||Central Florida -17 v. Tulsa||31-34||Loss||-109||55 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - UCF/Tulsa Weeknight MONEYMAKER on Central Florida -17 -109
I got no problem laying the big number here with UCF at Tulsa Friday night. I get the Golden Hurricane have played some of the top teams in the AAC tough this year, but I just question how much fight they have left after last week's gut-wrenching loss at Tulane.
With that loss to the Green Wave, Tulsa is now 2-7 on the season and can no longer reach the 6-win mark to become bowl eligible. With that said, I don't know that a fully motivated Golden Hurricane team could keep this close. UCF is rolling right now. The Knights followed up a 63-21 win at Temple with a 44-29 victory of Houston. UCF is scoring 46.3 ppg and Tulsa is allowing 33.0 ppg. Knights are 7-3 ATS last 10 on the road. Take Central Florida!
|11-07-19||Temple v. South Florida +2.5||17-7||Loss||-112||12 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - USF/Temple ATS NO-BRAINER on South Florida +2½ -112
Really like the price and the spot here with South Florida as a home dog Thursday night against Temple. Public is all over the Owls and the books are letting them have it with this line being less than a field goal.
For most people they just can't get past how bad USF was early in the year. Charlie Strong has really got this team on track and let's not forget this was a team a lot of people were picking ahead of Temple in the ACC prior to the season starting.
Confidence can be everything and the Bulls have it right now, as they have won 3 of their last 4 and are starting to impose their will on the ground. USF has rushed for 240+ yards in 3 of their last 4. Temple just followed up a 24-point loss at SMU with a 42-point loss at home to UCF.
Teams with a line of +3 to -3 that rushed for 150+ yards in their last game and are facing a team that was outgained on the ground by 125+ yards are 27-6 (82%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take South Florida!
|11-02-19||New Mexico +5 v. Nevada||10-21||Loss||-109||132 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on New Mexico +5 -109
The Lobos are definitely worth a look here at this price. I get New Mexico has lost 5 straight and are just 2-6 on the season, but Nevada isn't exactly lighting up the world. Wolf Pack have 4 wins but two of those are against UTEP and Weber State. they have lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6.
Nevada shouldn't be laying more than a field goal with how they play defense. Wolf Pack are allowing 37.6 ppg and 6.4 yards/play. Lobos have been a great bet under Davie against teams that give up a lot of points. New Mexico has covered 13 of their last 15 against teams that allow 31 or more points/game. Lobos are also 10-2 ATS last 12 on the road after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more at the half. Take New Mexico!
|11-02-19||UAB +10.5 v. Tennessee||Top||7-30||Loss||-110||129 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on UAB +10½ -110
As bad as it's been for the Volunteers this year, I think the public is going to be tempted to take Tennessee laying less than two touchdowns against a team from C-USA, especially considering the Vols have won 2 of their last 3, including a 41-21 blowout win over South Carolina last time out.
That tells me the books really like UAB's chances to cover and I agree. The Blazers are extremely well coached under Bill Clark, who has a 31-15 record in 3+ seasons in Birmingham. Vols are also just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games and 2-7 ATS last 9 off a win.
Great system in play favoring a fade of Tennessee. Home teams that have won 2 of their last 3 games and still own a winning percentage between 25% to 40% are just 8-34 (19%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take UAB!
|11-02-19||Oregon State +6.5 v. Arizona||56-38||Win||100||127 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Oregon State +6½ -107
Big time value here with the Beavers catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Wildcats. Oregon State is a program on the rise. Beavers have already won 3 games this season and just pulled off a big upset at Cal as a double-digit dog.
Arizona has lost and failed to cover 3 straight games. To say the defense has been bad for the Wildcats would be an understatement. Arizona has allowed 41 or more in 3 straight games. Prior to playing to really good defensive teams in Utah and Cal, Oregon State scored 28 or more in 4 straight, twice eclipsing 40 points. I actually like the Beavers to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for insurance.
Great system in play favoring a play on the Beavers. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in Weeks 10-13, who have covered 4 of their last 5 are 38-13 (75%) ATS last 10 seasons. Take Oregon State!
|11-02-19||Tulsa v. Tulane -9.5||26-38||Win||100||126 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tulane -9½ -109
I got no problem here laying the points with the Green Wave at home. This is the ideal spot to fade Tulsa off an absolutely gut-wrenching 42-41 loss at home to Memphis. That's now 4 straight losses for the Golden Hurricanes and I just don't think they are going to want anything to do with playing a pissed off Tulane team on the road.
Green Wave are just 4-3, but those 3 losses have all come on the road against top tier teams in Memphis, Navy and Auburn. Last year Tulane won and covered at Tulsa and the year before won 62-28 as a slim 5.5-point home favorite.
Green Wave are 4-0 ATS last 5 at home and 18-8 ATS last 26 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Tulsa is 3-9 ATS last 12 off a cover, 1-4 ATS last 5 after scoring 40 or more and 2-8 ATS last 10 after rushing for 200+ yards. Take Tulane!
|11-02-19||UNLV v. Colorado State -9||17-37||Win||100||126 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Colorado State -9 -108
I got no problem laying single digits with the Rams at home against this UNLV team. The Rebels surprised some people last week with a mere 3-point loss at home to San Diego State as a 11.5-point dog. Mainly because the Aztecs look like a team that will be playing for the MWC title later this month.
I just think that was UNLV simply giving it all they had and San Diego State kinda just going thru the motions against a team they knew they were better than. Every other loss the Rebels have suffered has been by more than two touchdowns.
Colorado State got off to that awful 1-5 start, but a lot of that was them just playing a brutal schedule out of the gate Rams enter having won their last two, including a 41-31 upset win at Fresno State last time out. Colorado State has simply been undervalued and it shows with their 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5.
UNLV is 6-16 ATS last 22 on the road after losing 6/7 of their last 8 games and 3-11 ATS last 14 off a cover. Take Colorado State!
|11-02-19||TCU +4.5 v. Oklahoma State||27-34||Loss||-109||125 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on TCU +4½ -109
I think the value here with TCU as a dog against the Cowboys. Both teams are off big wins last week. Horned Frogs defeated Texas 37-27 at home, while Oklahoma State went on the road and beat a red-hot ISU team.
I think the key to slowing down this Cowboys team is to stop the run and that's something TCU has done extremely well. Horned Frogs are giving up just 3.2 yards/carry. Oklahoma State had also just lost at home to Baylor by 18 the week before and also lost by double-digit to a pretty mediocre Texas Texas squad.
Cowboys are much better suited to beat teams that want to get in a shootout. OK State is just 9-21 ATS vs similar teams like TCU that control 32+ minutes of possession and 21+ first downs. Underdog has also covered 4 straight in the series. Take TCU!
|11-02-19||Marshall v. Rice +10.5||20-7||Loss||-109||122 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Rice +10½ -109
I think we are getting a decent price here with the Owls catching double-digits. Rice is thought of by many as one of the worst teams in the country, as the are winless at 0-8 and haven't been good recently. I'm not saying they are a good team, but they are better than their record. Owls have a mere 8-point loss to undefeated Baylor, only lost by 3 to Louisiana Tech and have been competitive in really all but a couple games against WF and Texas.
Marshall has been one of the most overvalued valued teams in the country. The Thundering Herd have a solid 5-3 SU record and are riding a 3-game winning streak, but are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
Basically anytime Marshall is favored you want to look to the other side. Thundering Herd are 3-11 ATS last 2 seasons when giving points. They have also not covered a single spread in games played on Saturday (0-6) this season. Owls are 32-16 ATS last 48 at home in weeks 10 thru 13 and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take Rice!
|10-31-19||West Virginia +19 v. Baylor||14-17||Win||100||20 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - W Virginia/Baylor ATS ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia +19 -115
I feel like the price is right to back the Mountaineers in Thursday's game at Baylor. The Bears are ranked No. 12 and sitting at 7-0, but I'm not buying this being one of the 15 best teams in the country. Last time out Baylor won 45-27 at Oklahoma State, but they trailed by double-digits in the 2nd half.
West Virginia is a team the betting public wants nothing to do with, which is why we are getting such a great price with them in this one. I know the results don't look great, but the Mountaineers have hung around early in a lot of their games and have played a really tough schedule with 6 of 7 against Power 5 teams.
Mountaineers new head coach Neal Brown has got his team to thrive in this spot, going 11-2 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning record. Baylor is just 3-12-1 ATS last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Take West Virginia!
|10-26-19||Utah State +4.5 v. Air Force||Top||7-31||Loss||-111||104 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Utah St/Air Force MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +4½ -111
I love the Aggies getting more than a field goal against the Falcons. Air Force's starting quarterback Donald Hammond is questionable to play and if he does suit up he might not be 100%. Regardless, I would have liked Utah State at this price.
Utah State is 4-2 with their only two losses at Wake Forest and at LSU and they probably should have beat the Demon Deacons (lost 35-38). Aggies got one of my favorite 'Group of 5' quarterbacks in Jordan Love and he should torch this Air Force defense that is allowing opposing QB's to complete 64% or more. Last year Love threw for 356 yards and 2 scores against the Aggies.
Utah State has covered 14 of their last 19 overall as the books just don't give them the credit they deserve. Air Force 0-6 ATS last 6 after covering 2 of their last 3 and 0-7 ATS last 7 after outrushing two straight opponents by 125 or more yards. Take Utah State!
|10-26-19||California +21.5 v. Utah||0-35||Loss||-110||106 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Late Night BAILOUT WINNER on California +21½ -110
Easy play here on the Golden Bears catching more than 3 touchdowns against Utah. The most points Cal has allowed in any game this year is 24. If they allow that we simply need them to score 3 to cover.
We just saw Utah score only 21 at home against ASU. Cal's defense is better and we have seen them play some of their best football on the road as a dog. They won 20-19 as a 13-point dog at Washington and 28-20 as a 2.5-point dog at Ole Miss. They also covered as a 21-point dog at Oregon. Touching on that, no way should Utah be favored by more at home against Cal than the Ducks. Take California!
|10-26-19||Texas State +12 v. Arkansas State||14-38||Loss||-110||102 h 33 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Vegas Undervalued UNDERDOG on Texas State +12 -110
Love the Bobcats here as a double-digit dog against the Red Wolves. I just don't think Arkansas State is worthy of laying a number like this. They just got beat bad at home by Lafayette and the week before lost by 14 as a favorite at Georgia State. This team also lost as a 23-point favorite to Southern Illinois.
As for Texas State, this team is better than they get credit for. They are just 2-4, but have played a tough schedule. Their 4 losses are to Texas A&M, Wyoming, SMU and ULM.
More than anything, we got a massive system in play. Teams that have allowed 300 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games against an opponent that just rushed for 100 or less are 4-25 (14%) ATS the last 10 seasons. Take Texas State!
|10-26-19||Tulane +4 v. Navy||38-41||Win||100||100 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - American Athletic PLAY OF THE WEEK on Tulane +4 -110
The Green Wave are definitely worth a look here getting more than a field goal against the Midshipmen. Green Wave are coming off an ugly loss at Memphis, but that's a really good Tigers team. Their only other loss is at Auburn by just 18.
Navy has been a nice surprise, but I'm just not buying them being as good as their record. Also, they don't get the edge of being an option team and facing a team that doesn't know how to stop it. Tulane also runs the option.
I just think the Green Wave have the better talent here and they have thrived in this spot. Tulane is 11-2 ATS in their last 13 road games when trailing in their previous game by 24 or more.
Navy comes in having won and covered 3 straight and are 5-1 ATS on the season. This is the point where you want to fade teams like the Midshipmen. Teams that have won 80% or more of their games and covered the spread by 49 or more points total in their last 5 games are a mere 16-42 (28%) ATS the last 5 seasons when playing a good team that has won 60% to 80% of their games.
|10-26-19||Florida International -3 v. Middle Tennessee State||17-50||Loss||-110||99 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Florida International -3 -110
I see a ton of value here with FIU laying only a field goal against the Blue Raiders on Saturday. The Panthers got off to a slow start with just 1 win in their first 4 games and I think people wrote this team off.
Turns out the schedule was harder than it looked. They lost at Tulane, who is 5-2 with their only two losses on the road to Auburn and Memphis. They followed that up with a loss at home to WKU and they too are 5-2. The other against LA Tech who is 6-1 and looking like the team to beat in C-USA.
Since that slow start FIU has gone 3-0 with all 3 coming in blowout fashion. They should have no problem making easy work of Middle Tennessee, who is going to have a hard time bouncing back from a crushing 33-30 loss at North Texas.
Blue Raiders are 0-5 ATS last 5 versus a team with a winning record. FIU is 6-2 ATS last 8 road games. Take FIU!
|10-26-19||Auburn v. LSU -10||Top||20-23||Loss||-107||99 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Auburn/LSU SEC GAME OF THE YEAR on LSU -10 -107
This might seem like a big number for LSU to be laying against a Auburn team that is 6-1 both SU and ATS, but I just think LSU is a clear step above Auburn. Everyone was calling for LSU to have a letdown last week against Mississippi State and they cruised to a 36-13 win.
Auburn gets a lot of love for beating Oregon and Texas A&M, but they also lost by 9 at Florida and LSU beat the Gators by 14. I just don't think the Auburn can go score for score with LSU and this will get ugly once Auburn is forced to throw.
Home favorites in games involving two dominant teams that are outgaining opponents by 1.2 or more yards/play are 70-32 (69%) ATS if coming off 3 straight games where the gained 6.35 or more yards/play.
Also a strong system in favor of fading Auburn. Teams like Auburn that have beat the spread by 49 or more combined points in their last 5 games and have won 80% or more of their games are a mere 31-70 (31%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take LSU!
|10-26-19||North Texas -3.5 v. Charlotte||38-39||Loss||-110||99 h 49 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on North Texas -3½ -110
The Mean Green are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the 49ers. North Texas hasn't been as good as people were expecting given they returned Mason Fine at quarterback, but they got two losses at SMU and Cal. They also had an ugly loss to Houston after King redshirted and a loss at SOuthern Miss.
I like how they responded last week with a 33-30 win over Middle Tennessee. I just don't think it's asking a lot for them to win by a touchdown against this Charlotte team. The 49ers are 2-5 and the two wins are against Gardner Webb and UMass. They come in having lost and failed to cover in 4 straight.
They are giving up 39.4 ppg against teams that only average 29.5 ppg. North Texas is putting up 32.1 ppg and 449 yards/game. Charlotte is just 1-5 ATS last 6 conference games. Take Mean Green!
|10-26-19||Illinois +10 v. Purdue||24-6||Win||100||95 h 27 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Big Ten ATS PLAY OF THE WEEK on Illinois +10 -110
I think we are seeing some great value here with the Fighting Illini as a double-digit dog against Purdue. I think when the public sees a team like Illinois pull off a massive upset like they did last week beating Wisconsin as a 29-point underdog, there first thought is that team will have a big letdown.
I'm just not buying that. I think we see the Fighting Illini use that win to their advantage and I wouldn't be shocked at all if they won this game outright. Purdue covered last week at Iowa as 17.5-point dog, but that Hawkeyes team looks broken. Boilermakers just have no threat of a running game. They are averaging 59 ypg and 2.2 yards/carry. If they struggle at all in the passing game they will lose here.
Road underdogs off a home win against a conference opponent are 36-12 ATS (75%) last 5 seasons when facing a team like Purdue that is off a conference loss by 7 or less. Take Illinois!
|10-25-19||USC v. Colorado +12||35-31||Win||100||12 h 5 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - USC/Colorado Weeknight NO-BRAINER on Colorado +12 -105
Really like the value here with Colorado as a double-digit home dog against the the Trojans. I think now is the time to strike with the Buffaloes after 3 straight losses. The last two being blowout losses on the road to Oregon and Washington State.
USC has had their moments and are off an impressive 41-14 win at Arizona, but I'm not ready to lay double-digits with them in a prime time road game. Not to mention this is a really tough spot for the Trojans with a monumental game on deck at home against Oregon.
USC is just 19-40-1 last 60 off a SU win, 4-11-1 ATS last 16 on the road and 1-6 ATS last 7 on Friday. Take Colorado!
|10-24-19||SMU -13.5 v. Houston||Top||34-31||Loss||-109||78 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - SMU/Houston C-USA PLAY OF THE MONTH on SMU -13½ -109
Laying almost two touchdowns on the road in a weekday game isn't thought of as a great play. I don't care. I think SMU is going to absolutely lay it on the Cougars tonight.
Houston had a spirited effort in the first game after King decided to take a healthy red-shirt because his team wasn't good enough, but that was against a North Texas team that has not lived up to expectations. They then were beat badly at Cincinnati and barely won on the road against UCONN.
As for the Mustangs, they haven't lost a game behind their star transfer QB Shane Buechele, who ranks in the Top 10 in both yards (2,122) and TD passes (18). Books have not been able to set the number high enough, as SMU is 6-1 ATS. They are going to score at will against this Houston defense and I don't see the Cougars being able to keep pace. Take SMU!
|10-19-19||Boise State -7 v. BYU||Top||25-28||Loss||-109||30 h 15 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Boise State -7 -109
I'll gladly lay the touchdown with Boise State on the road against the Cougars. I'm not really sure why this BYU team gets so much love. The schedule has been brutal, there's no denying that. However, their two wins are against Tenn and USC by 3-points a piece.
This team lost by 26 at home to Washington, lost at Toledo and they just fell at South Florida. That loss to USF is bad. The Bulls were without starting QB Blake Barnett (had just 72 yards passing). That's the same USF team that lost 49-0 to Wisconsin and somehow managed to lose to an awful Georgia Tech team.
I get that Boise State's QB might not play, but the backup has been solid. More than anything, I don't think the Broncos need much from their QB to win here by double-digits. Take Boise State!
|10-19-19||Arizona v. USC -9.5||14-41||Win||100||29 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Pac-12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on USC -9½ -108
Definitely worth a look here to lay the 9.5 at home with USC. I think this is the perfect spot to buy low on the Trojans. To a lot of people this will look like too many points for USC to be laying. Trojans are off back-to-back losses and just 3-3 overall. Arizona is off a loss to Washington, but had won 4 straight prior to that defeat.
I just don't think people realize how good this USC team is. The Trojans could of easily won at BYU (lost by 3 in OT), they only lost by 14 at Washington and put up quite the fight at Notre Dame last week (lost by 3). Their 3 wins are against Fresno St, Utah and Stanford, so there have been no easy games on the schedule.
That is until now. Arizona is mediocre at best. losing by 24 at Washington was not a surprise and I don't see them being able to keep USC from marching up and down the field. Keep in mind the Wildcats allowed 45 to Hawaii and 41 to Northern Arizona earlier this season. Trojans got to much talent at the skill positions. Take USC!
|10-19-19||Coastal Carolina v. Georgia Southern -6.5||27-30||Loss||-109||23 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - C Carolina/G Southern Side/Total Parlay on Georgia Southern -6½ & UNDER 45½
I like both the side and total in Saturday's Sun Belt showdown between Coastal Carolina and Georgia Southern. Last time out the Eagles held South Alabama to just 17 points and I don't see them allowing much in this one.
Coastal Carolina just gave up 350 yards rushing last time out to Georgia State. All Georgia Southern wants to do is run the ball with that option attack. These option teams are not fun to face and I just think the Chanticleers are going to want nothing to do with being cut block all game.
Coastal Carolina is just 3-7 ATS last 10 games and have failed to cover 6 straight conference games. Eagles are 7-3 ATS last 10 at home. UNDER is 5-2 in Chanticleers last 7 off a loss and 12-4 in Georgia Southern's last 16 after giving up 20+ points. Take Georgia Southern & UNDER!
|10-19-19||New Mexico v. Wyoming -17.5||Top||10-23||Loss||-103||7 h 27 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Mountain West PLAY OF THE MONTH on Wyoming -17½ -103
Love the Cowboys to cover the number at home against the Lobos. New Mexico lost by 52 on the road to Notre Dame and just lost by 14 at home to a bad Colorado State team. They got no business keeping this close.
Cowboys will be motivated off a tough a loss at SDSU and the game before they took out UNLV at home 53-17. Last year Wyoming destroyed the Lobos 31-3 and the year before it was 42-3. Expect more of the same on Saturday.
Cowboys are 6-0 ATS last 6 vs a bad team that's won between 25% and 40% of their games the last 3 seasons, winning in this spot by 19.5 ppg. Take Wyoming!
|10-18-19||Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -4.5||36-31||Loss||-100||8 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Marshall/FAU C-USA PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida Atlantic -4½ -100
I got no problem here laying the 4.5 with FAU at home against Marshall. I just think the perception here is that these two teams are evenly matched, but I don't see that at all. For starters, Marshall lost 13-24 to Middle Tennessee and FAU just beat that same Blue Raiders team 28-13.
Marshall has two cupcake wins over VMI and ODU to go along with a fortunate 33-31 win at home against Ohio. FAU's only two losses are to Ohio State and UCF. People give Marshall credit for only losing by 7 at Boise State, but that was a misleading final. Broncos outgained the Herd 437 to 172 with a 22 to 9 edge in first downs. Marshall also got annihilated 52-14 at home against Cincinnati.
The other big thing for me is the Owls have the much better signal caller in this matchup. Isaiah Green for Marshall provides a dual threat, but is really limited throwing the ball. FAU's Chris Robinson is completing 64% of his attempts with a 13-2 TD-INT ratio. Look for the Owls to win the turnover battle at home and get their revenge from last year's lopsided loss at Marshall. Take FAU!
|10-17-19||UCLA +4.5 v. Stanford||34-16||Win||100||11 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - UCLA/Stanford Weeknight NO-BRAINER on UCLA +4½ -110
I could see why some would be scared to back UCLA as a small road dog against Stanford, given the Bruins are off an ugly 17-point loss at home to Oregon State and just 1-5 on the season. However, this game is there for the taking, as the Cardinal have been decimated with injuries on the offensive side of the ball.
Stanford will be without their top two quarterbacks in K.J. Costello and Davis Mills. They will have to turn to sophore Jack West, who will be making his first career start. That's bad enough, but it gets worse. The Cardinal have also sustained a number of injuries on the offensive line and will have 3 freshman forced into action. Even against a sub-par UCLA defense, I don't see the Stanford offense being able to do much.
Road dogs of 3.5 to 10 ponts who are giving up 6.1 or more yards/play are 41-12 (77%) ATS over the last 5 seasons after a game where they had 475 or more total yards. Take UCLA!
|10-16-19||South Alabama v. Troy -14.5||Top||13-37||Win||100||12 h 47 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Early Week Day PLAY OF THE MONTH on Troy -14½ -110
I think the books made a big mistake not making Troy a much bigger favorite here. There's no denying that this year's Trojans team isn't as good as the one that won 10-games last year. That and the fact that Troy is just 1-4 ATS has people considering South Alabama at this price.
It's not like The Trojans have been losing to bad teams and they are a couple close losses away from being 4-1 with their only loss on the road to Missouri. They are still way more talented than South Alabama and I just don't see the Jaguars pathetic excuse for an offense being able to keep pace.
South Alabama has not eclipsed 17 points in any of their last 4 games and have played some bad defenses in this stretch. The most they have scored all season against a FBS opponent is 21 against Nebraska and they had a 13-yard TD drive in that game. The Trojans has scored 35+ in every game not against a Power 5 opponent. Take Troy!
|10-12-19||Arkansas v. Kentucky -6.5||20-24||Loss||-110||34 h 34 m||Show|
4* NCAAF -Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Kentucky -6½ -110
I think this is the ideal spot to buy low and back the Wildcats laying less than a touchdown at home against the Razorbacks. Kentucky was the surprise team of the SEC last year, as they went 5-3 in the conference and 10-3 overall. THis year they are just 2-3 and coming into this game off 3 straight losses.
The thing is, they lost at home to Florida by just 8 and had a 21-10 lead on the Gators in the 4th quarter. They then lost on the road to Miss State and South Carolina, which was to be expected. This feels like a make or break point in their season and I like Mark Stoops team to respond in a big way, especially coming off a bye week.
All you need to know about the Razorbacks is they lost at home to San Jose STate 24-31 and that they have allowed 31+ points in every game against a FBS opponent. Note that Kentucky hasn't allowed more than 30 in a game this season. Also quarterback Nick Starkel, who took over the starting job from Ben Hicks is questionable to play. I look for the Wildcats to win comfortably. Take Kentucky!
|10-12-19||Texas Tech v. Baylor -10||30-33||Loss||-110||7 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Tech/Baylor Big 12 PLAY OF THE WEEK on Baylor -10 -110
This might seem like a big number for the Bears to be laying at home against Texas Tech, who just upset Oklahoma State as a double-digit home dog, but I think people are sleeping on this Baylor team. I don't see this game being close at all.
Texas Tech really benefited from a sloppy Cowboys performance. Oklahoma State turned it over 5 times. Red Raiders defense had only forced 4 turnovers in their first 4 games. In their previous two games, both on the road, Tech was destroyed. They lost 55-16 at Oklahoma and 28-14 at Arizona. I think the Bears win here by 14+ easy. Take Baylor!
|10-12-19||Alabama -17 v. Texas A&M||47-28||Win||100||30 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Alabama/TX A&M SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Alabama -17 -104
I got no problem here laying the 17 on the road with Alabama. The Crimson Tide are a team on a mission and I just don't think the Aggies have the goods to keep this thing respectable. People will point to Texas A&M only losing to Clemson by 14-points on the road, but the Tigers haven't looked anywhere near as good as we thought they would.
Then there's that ugly loss at home to Auburn, which now looks even worse after Auburn's 24-13 loss at Florida. Auburn went into College Station and won 28-20. Score makes it look like it was close, but Texas A&M trailed 21-3 going into the 4th quarter.
Both games the Aggies offense really struggled to score and that's the big issue here. Alabama is going to score and score a lot. Alabama is averaging 51.8 ppg against teams that only give up 29.3 ppg.
There's also the Nick Saban vs a former assistant at head coach. Fisher coached under Saban back at LSU. Saban is a perfect 17-0 SU against his former assistants and has won by an average score of 41.6 to 14.2. Take Alabama!
|10-12-19||Maryland v. Purdue +3.5||Top||14-40||Win||100||26 h 4 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Underdog GAME OF THE YEAR on Purdue +3½ -105
I love Purdue getting a field goal and the hook at home against Maryland. No way should the Terps be favored on the road here. I get that Purdue is down their starting QB and star wide out Rondale Moore, but it's not like Maryland isn't down a few key players. Terps will be without their starting QB in Josh Jackson and will once again turn to Tyrrell Pigrome.
Sure Pigrome has experienced, but there's a reason he's been a backup for four years. It's pretty big downgrade here from Jackson. The fact that Maryland is favored with him as the starter will only serve as more motivation for Jeff Brohm's team. Purdue is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 as a home dog.
Maryland comes in off a 48-7 blowout win over Rutgers. Based on what we have seen from the Scarlet Knights this season, I'm not sure why everyone is so excited about that win. This is still the same team that lost 20-17 on the road to Temple and managed just 128 total yards in a 59-0 loss at home to Penn State.
Keep in mind Maryland followed a 63-20 blowout win over Syracuse with that upset loss at Temple and are just 4-15 ATS in their last 21 off a conference win by 21 or more points. Take Purdue!
|10-12-19||Memphis v. Temple +5.5||28-30||Win||100||4 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Temple +5½ -110
I see a ton of value here with Temple at this price. The Owls already have one home win as a home dog against Maryland. They were also a 5.5-point dog in that fight. Memphis is just getting a little too much love off their 5-0 start.
Their best win was against Ole Miss and they barely beat them. This will also be by far their toughest road game of 2019. Tigers are a mere 19-35 ATS in their last 54 as a favorite of -3.5 to -10. Owls are 16-6 ATS last 22 as a home dog of 3.5 to 7 points. Take Temple!
|10-11-19||Virginia v. Miami-FL -2||9-17||Win||100||11 h 44 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Virginia/Miami ACC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Miami-FL -2 -110
In the eyes of the betting public there's no way the Hurricanes should be favored in this matchup. Virginia is No. 20 in the country, coming off a bye and are 4-1 with their only loss coming in a game against Notre Dame where they turned it over 5 times. Miami on the other hand is sitting at 2-3 and just lost outright as a 14-point favorite to Va Tech, who had not been playing well.
Those that didn't watch the game against the Hokies, Miami starting quarterback Jarren Williams threw an interception on each of their first 3 series and Mike Harley fumbled on the next. It was 28-0 before the Hurricanes knew what hit them. They actually came back and tied the game 35-35.
Backup QB N'Kosi Perry who started a few games last year, threw for 422 yards and 4 scores in relief of Williams. I think he's brought life to the offense and head coach Manny Diaz is taking more control of the defense this week. This is still the same team that had Florida on the ropes in Week 1.
I think we see the Hurricane's defense really step up in this game and shutdown a pretty mediocre Virginia offense. Take Miami!
|10-11-19||Colorado State -3.5 v. New Mexico||35-21||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Colo St/NM MWC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Colorado State -3½ +100
It can be really hard to lay points with a team that is sitting at 1-5 with their only win coming at home against Western Illinois, but I really like the Rams to win here by at least a touchdown. Colorado State may be 1-5, but a lot of that is the schedule. The 5 losses are against Colorado, Arkansas, Toledo, Utah State and San Diego State. They were a dog in all of those.
New Mexico isn't just a team they can beat, but beat rather easily. The Lobos have losses against the likes of Liberty and San Jose State. They also barely beat in-state rival New Mexico State 55-52. Aggies haven't won a game this season. Take Colorado State!
|10-05-19||Boise State -22.5 v. UNLV||38-13||Win||100||15 h 32 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Boise State -22½ -110
I'm confident Boise State will return from their bye week with a blowout win at UNLV. Broncos are 4-0 with a win at Florida State and a couple of solid home wins over Marshall and Air Force. Hard to find a lot to complain about, but with a true freshman at QB a bye week can do wonders.
I just don't see UNLV being able to keep pace offensively with Boise State. Outside of a sloppy 14 effort against Marshall, the Broncos have put 30+ on the board. The only team UNLV has held under 30 is Southern Utah. They gave up 43 to Arkansas State and 53 to Wyoming. Would not be surprised at all if Boise scored 50+.
UNLV's offense put up 56 in the opener, but hasn't eclipsed 17 in the 3 games since. Boise State has held each of their last 3 teams under 20 points. I could see the Broncos having this spread covered early in the 1st half. Take Boise State!
|10-05-19||Northwestern v. Nebraska -7||10-13||Loss||-108||54 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Nebraska/Northwestern BIG TEN PLAY OF THE WEEK on Nebraska -7 -108
It's really hard to back a team that just burned you, especially when they fail to cover in the manner than Nebraska did last week against Ohio State. Lot of people liked the Cornhuskers to at worse cover the 17-point spread. They lost 48-7 getting outgained by an embarrassing 349 yards (580 to 231).
I think we are seeing a much lower number and a lot of value with only needing Nebraska to win by 8 or more. People are giving Northwestern credit for playing Wisconsin tough last week (lost 24-15 as a 22.5-point dog). However, I think some of that was the Badgers suffering a bit of a letdown off that emotional thumping of Michigan the previous week.
I think the Northwestern offense is getting a pass for their anemic offensive numbers the last two games because it was against Michigan State and Wisconsin. They only had 210 yards and 7 points (scoreless through 3+ quarters) against a Stanford defense that has given up 45 on two different occasions.
It's also a lot easier to pick yourself up after a blowout loss than it is a game where you lose in the final seconds. I think we get a big effort from Nebraska at home and I just don't see the Wildcats being able to keep it close. Take Nebraska!
|10-05-19||Auburn -2.5 v. Florida||13-24||Loss||-112||54 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAF- Auburn/Florida SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Auburn -2½ -112
As difficult as it is to bet against Dan Mullen as a home dog, I can't help myself by play Auburn at less than a field goal. I know Florida is 5-0 and ranked No. 10 in the country, but I don't see them as the 10th best team. Two of their five wins are against FCS foes. The other 3 against Miami, @ Kentucky and Tennessee. Wildcats and Vols are both bad and they only beat the Hurricanes by 4. Miami lost at UNC and only beat C Michigan by 5 at home.
Auburn's 5-0 resume reads a little different. They got two Top 25 wins. One against then No. 11 Oregon and the other an impressive 28-20 win at No. 17 Texas A&M at night. They also played a really good Tulane team in non-conference and just whooped Mississippi State 56-23.
Auburn has one of the best defensive fronts in the country and will be facing what I think is a very weak Florida offense that is down to No. 2 QB Kyle Trask. Trask has played okay against suspect competition, but I don't think he's prepared for what he will be up against on Saturday. Take Auburn!
|10-05-19||TCU v. Iowa State -3||24-49||Win||100||52 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Iowa State -3 -110
I like the Cyclones to easily win by more than a field goal at home against the Horned Frogs. Iowa State comes in at 2-2 and off a crushing 23-21 loss at Baylor. A game they probably should have won, despite being down 20-0 going into the 4th quarter. They let another game get away late earlier this year against Iowa. This team could easily be 4-0. No way this line is 3 if they were.
TCU just whooped up on Kansas, big deal. Even though the Jayhawks beat BC on the road earlier this year, that doesn't mean they are a serious threat in the Big 12. They are still the worst team in the conference. Prior to that they lost at home to SMU, who plays in the AAC. Their only other win vs a FBS opponent is a road win at Purdue with the Boilermakers down their starting QB.
SMU put up 41 points and over 400 yards of offense against the Horned Frogs. I look for Brock Purdy and the ISU offense to have similar success. On the flip side of this, I look for the Cyclones defensive front to impose their will and make things difficult for a TCU offense that would much rather run than pass. Take Iowa State!
|10-05-19||Oklahoma State v. Texas Tech +10.5||Top||35-45||Win||100||50 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Texas Tech +10½ -110
Perfect opportunity to play into some overreactions and get a great number with the Red Raiders at home. No one wants anything to do with Texas Tech in this matchup. Red Raiders enter off back-to-back double-digit losses. First they fell 28-14 at Arizona and then returned from their bye with a 55-16 setback at Oklahoma.
As for the Cowboys, they just won convincingly 26-13 at home over a ranked K-State team, improving to 4-1 on the year. Only loss a close defeat at Texas 36-30. Most will feel like 10 isn't enough for Tech to cover.
Red Raiders are not as bad as people think. I think they show up with a max effort and will be a lot more potent in front of a rowdy home crowd with a ranked team visiting. Key to slowing to the Cowboys is not letting Chubba Hubbard get free. I think Tech's defense will be up to the task. If OK State doesn't bring their 'A' game, I could easily see the Red Raiders winning outright. Take Texas Tech!
|10-05-19||Tulane v. Army +3||42-33||Loss||-100||50 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Early Bird Vegas LINE MISTAKE on Army +3 +100
The Black Knights are definitely worth a look here as a home dog against the Green Wave. In fact, my numbers suggest that Army should be the ones favored in this matchup. Black Knights should be 4-0. The only loss being that 21-24 setback at Michigan.
I just think because they struggled in their opener with Rice (won 14-7 as a 23-point favorite), haven't really beat anyone of significance (other wins against UTSA and Morgan State) and the perception of how bad Michigan is, has the Black Knights undervalued.
Jeff Monken has done an outstanding job with this program. After going just 6-18 his first two years, they are 32-11 with a perfect 3-0 record in bowl games. Tulane hasn't played since that epic 38-31 win and cover over Houston as a 4.5-point favorite a couple weeks ago.
Green Wave are 3-1 with their only loss at Auburn. This is definitely the best team yet for Willie Fritz at Tulane, but they are simply not worthy of being road favorites against a team like Army. Black Knights are giving up just 104 ypg and 3.3 yards/carry, so it's a good matchup against the run-heavy Tulane offense. Take Army!
|10-05-19||Kent State +36 v. Wisconsin||0-48||Loss||-110||4 h 43 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Kent State +36 -110
I think it's going to be tough for the Badgers to cover this massive spread against Kent State. I think it's one thing to get up for non-conference games when they are the first games on the schedule. Lot tougher when they are sandwiched around conference play.
Badgers are banged up right now. I expect them to just go through the basics, make sure they get a win and get guys rest up for next week's showdown with Michigan State. Also, last 6 times Wisconsin was off a conference win, they failed to cover the next time out.
Kent State has also been covering machines against teams like Wisconsin. Golden Flashes are 9-1 ATS last 10 vs dominant ball control team, who average 32+ mins of possession and 21+ first downs. Take Kent State!
|10-03-19||Georgia Southern v. South Alabama +10||Top||20-17||Win||100||10 h 56 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Sun Belt PLAY OF THE MONTH on South Alabama +10 -110
The public is all over Georgia Southern in this one, but yet we have seen the line keep dropping in favor of the Jaguars. I'm with the sharp money on this one, as I think we are getting great value with South Alabama as a double-digit home dog.
Jaguars enter this game at 1-4, but it's been a pretty rough schedule. Of the 4 losses, 3 have come on the road against the likes of Nebraska, UAB and ULM. The other was a home game against Memphis.
Georgia Southern is just 1-3 and were just beat badly at home by Lafayette last week, which really tells me this is not same caliber a Eagles team as the one that won 10-games last year. The Ragin' Cajuns outgained them 440 to 252 (lost by double-digits despite being +2 in turnover margin).
Eagles are just 1-4 ATS last 5 overall, so the books are clearly overvaluing them of late. Jaguars are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take South Alabama!
|09-28-19||Houston v. North Texas -7||46-25||Loss||-110||60 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Prime Time VEGAS INSIDER on North Texas -7 -110
We are simply playing against the Cougars after what's transpired in Houston this week. Senior quarterback D'Eriq King and senior No. 2 wide out Keith Corbin have decided to use the new red-shirt rule (can red-shirt if you play 4 or fewer games) and sit out the rest of the season, so they can have another year of eligibility.
I don't know how that can be something that head coach Dana Holgorsen turns into a positive. King was their best player. A guy that was in the Heisman conversation. To have him quit on the team has to have other guys in the locker room questioning what's the point of even playing these final 8 games.
The defense was already bad and now you have to believe the offense will only regress after losing King and Corbin. North Texas will relish in the opportunity to kick an in-state rival when they are down and they got a big time talent at quarterback in Mason Fine. He should have a field day I see the Mean Green winning here in blowout fashion. Take North Texas!
|09-28-19||Kansas State v. Oklahoma State -4||13-26||Win||100||59 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Big 12 ATS PLAY OF THE WEEK on Oklahoma State -4 -101
You just have to trust the books whenever you see a line like this. You have an unranked team not only laying points, but laying more than a field goal against a team in the Top 25. Simply put, Oklahoma State is favored for a reason and I 100% agree.
You have to like what Chris Klieman has done early on replacing the great Bill Snyder. They got a real impressive win on the road against a SEC West team in Mississippi State. I just think they might be getting too much credit for that win. Bulldogs are decent, but not as good as people thought coming into the year.
Oklahoma State more than showed they got the talent to hang with the big boys, as they only lost 36-30 at No. 12 Texas and were only outgained by a mere 4 yards (498-494). I just think the combination of that Cowboys offense with the crazy atmosphere at home in a night game is enough to lay the short number. Take Oklahoma State!
|09-28-19||Indiana +14.5 v. Michigan State||31-40||Win||100||114 h 49 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Indiana +14½ -110
Indiana is definitely worth a look at this price against the Spartans. Even though the Hoosiers come in off a 38-3 win and cover against UConn, no one is going to think anything of a win over UConn. People are still going to remember this team for that ugly 51-10 loss as a mere 17.5-point favorite at home against Ohio State. I just think this is the perfect time to buy low on this team, as we are going to get a big effort here from Tom Allen's team.
Since Allen has come to Indiana they have progressively got better on the defense side of the ball. Given how Michigan State's offense has struggled, I think the Hoosiers can more than hold their own on that side of the ball.
Another to keep in mind with that Ohio State loss, they didn't have starting quarterback Michael Penix. He was close to playing at UConn last week, but didn't end up going. He's still listed as questionable, but I would be shocked if he doesn't play. Even with Ramsey under center they can keep it within two touchdowns. Take Indiana!
|09-28-19||Virginia v. Notre Dame -11||Top||20-35||Win||100||114 h 48 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on Notre Dame -11 -110
I was really impressed with the Irish in last week's loss to Georgia. The public was all over the Bulldogs in that game. While Notre Dame covered, I don't feel they did enough to sway the public back to the point they want to lay double-digits with them.
In fact, I see the public looking to grab the points with Virginia. Not only are the Cavaliers ranked No. 18 and 4-0, most will see this as a letdown game for Notre Dame. I don't. I think Virginia is getting a little too much respect. They beat Pitt by 16, but only outgained them by 53 and Pitt led 14-13 at the half. They trailed FSU 24-17 in the 4th quarter and fell behind 17-0 to Old Dominion (still trailed 17-14 going into the 4th quarter).
I just don't think the Cavaliers offense is good enough to go into a hostile environment against a good Notre Dame defense and keep pace with Ian Book and the Irish offense. Irish are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home against a team with a winning road record. Chip Kelly will have this team ready to go off the tough loss. Take Notre Dame!
|09-28-19||Central Michigan +17.5 v. Western Michigan||15-31||Win||100||110 h 19 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Central Michigan +17½ -109
I really think we are getting some great value with the Chippewas at this price. This is not just another game for these two in-state rivals. The Victory Cannon will be on the line and I think Central Michigan is more than capable of winning this game outright.
I don't get what Western Michigan has done to get this kind of respect. They got blowout wins over Mommouth and Georgia State. Their two losses are at Michigan State by a final of 51-17 and at Syracuse 52-33.
I get those are two ranked teams, but what kind of defense is that. The Spartans offense has been stagnant in all their other games and Syracuse hasn't score more than 24 in any of their other games. I got a lot more respect for Central Michigan's two losses to Power 5 teams. They got rolled 61-0 by a really good Wisconsin team and only lost 17-12 at Miami (FL).
Chippewas are down starting QB QUinten Dormady, but I like backup David Moore to play well against this poor Broncos defense. Western Michigan has already lost last year's leading wide out D'Wayne Eskridge and their do it all back LeVante Bellamy is questionable to even play. Take Central Michigan +17.5!
|09-27-19||Penn State v. Maryland +7||Top||59-0||Loss||-110||94 h 20 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Maryland +7 -110
Love the value here with the Terps as a touchdown dog against the Nittany Lions. It's not that Penn State isn't a talented team, they are extremely young and I just don't feel like they are the 12th best team in the country.
One of the more difficult thing for young/inexperienced teams is to play on the road in a hostile environment. That's where upsets happen and I think we could definitely see Maryland win this game outright. A lot of people were on the Terps after they crushed Syracuse, only to jump right off the ship after an upset loss at Temple.
I wasn't surprised to see them stumble on the road against the Owls. The Terps were feeling themselves off that big win over a ranked team and the fact that they were a Top 25 team. I really like the skill players they got on the offensive side of the ball and former Va Tech quarterback, Joshua Jackson, looks really good in this offense.
I think they are going to have a big day against a Penn State defense that isn't as good as the numbers. Nittany Lions have somehow only given up 23 points in their last 2 games, despite allowing more than 800 yards of offense. Take Maryland!
|09-26-19||Navy +11 v. Memphis||Top||23-35||Loss||-110||70 h 21 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - American Athletic GAME OF THE MONTH on Navy +11 -110
Navy is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog against Memphis on Thursday Night. Midshipmen went just 3-9 last year and were a team not many people were talking about in 2019 with just 8 starters back. However, this should be a much improved team (service academies are use to not having a lot of guys back) on both sides of the ball.
They have looked great in their two games so far this season. They beat Holy Cross 45-7 as a 21.5-point favorite and East Carolina 42-10 as a 7.5-point favorite. Books weren't close with the number posted in either of those games. I think it's the same thing here.
Navy has won 3 of the last 4 meetings against Memphis, including a 22-21 win as a 6.5-point dog last year. A lot of people are praising this Memphis defense cause it shutdown Ole Miss in the opener, but stopping the triple-option is not easy and all that running limits the number of possessions.
Midshipmen are 18-5 ATS last 23 as a road dog of 7.5 to 14 points. Memphis is just 8-21 in their last 29 off a double-digit road win, 5-15 ATS last 20 after outgaining 2 straight teams by 125 or more yards and 0-8 ATS last 8 after gaining 525+ yards in their last two. Take Navy!
|09-21-19||Oregon v. Stanford +10.5||21-6||Loss||-105||53 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Pac-12 GAME OF THE WEEK on Stanford +10½ -105
I think this is the ideal spot to jump on Stanford after a couple of really ugly road losses to USC and UCF. I think it has the perception on Stanford way down going into this game. They didn't have K.J. Costello in the loss at USC and I think they just didn't have any juice left for that game at UCF (long travel).
I expect a different looking Cardinal team on Saturday. That could be a big problem for the Ducks given all the hype they have been getting. Hard to imagine Oregon isn't sitting there thinking about how they are going to roll Stanford. I know they played Auburn tough in the opener, but I'm not sold on the Tigers being all that.
Stanford head coach David Shaw has been a moneymaker in this spot. With the Cardinal he's 19-9 ATS at home in the first month of the season, 35-19 ATS last 54 vs a good offensive team that's averaging 5.9 yards/play and a perfect 10-0 ATS off 2 straight losses against the spread. Take Stanford!
|09-21-19||Wyoming v. Tulsa -3||21-24||Push||0||84 h 52 m||Show|
4* NCAAF No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Tulsa -3 -111
I'm dialed in on this Saturday's matchup with Tulsa and Wyoming. I not only like the Golden Hurricane, but I see a ton of value here with the UNDER as well.
Tulsa's only two losses on the season are to Michigan State by 21 on the road and by 19 at home to Oklahoma State. While the final score against the Cowboys ended up being 40-19, they had a 21-20 lead at the half and were down by just 12 with less than 5 minutes to play in the 4th quarter.
They gave up 506 yards to OKlahoma State, but a bunch of that was on big plays. Cowboys had a 75-yard TD run and 90-yard TD pass. Given how good Oklahoma State has looked, I thought for the most part that defense played well. Keep in mind this is a Tulsa defense that returned 8 starters from a unit that went from giving up 37.5 ppg in 2017 to only allowing 29.6 ppg.
I think that defense will have no problem keeping Wyoming's offense in check. They only scored 23 in a 9-point win over a bad Texas State team and 7 of those came on a 72-yard pick six with them down 14-13 in the 3rd quarter. They followed that up with just 21 in a mere 5-point win over Idaho and were only up 14-13 before a 80-yard TD run in the 4th (only pts 2nd half).
Easy for Tulsa to win by 3, but I also think the Wyoming's defense is good enough to keep the Golden Hurricane from putting up a ton of points. I see this something like 27-10 in favor of the home team. Take Tulsa & UNDER!
|09-21-19||UL-Lafayette v. Ohio -3||Top||45-25||Loss||-110||82 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAF Small Conference PLAY OF THE YEAR on Ohio -3 -110
Absolutely love Ohio here as a small 3-point home favorite against the Ragin Cajun's. This is the perfect time to buy low on the Bobcats and sell high on Lafayette. Ohio didn't cover in their opener against Rhode Island, despite winning by 20+, and then lost back-to-back on the road against Pittsburgh and Marshall. Two games they were expected to lose, but nonetheless there's nothing to get you excited about with Ohio.
Key here is that this is one of Frank Solich's better teams he's had at Ohio and a lot of people have them as the best team in the MAC this year. They are going to be chomping at the bit take the field at home, where they have are 1-0 this year and 48-13 over the previous 10 seasons (12-1 since 2017).
As for Lafayette they covered against Mississippi State in the opener and followed that up with back-to-back blowout wins and covers at home against Liberty and Texas Southern. The close call against the Bulldogs looks less impressive after Miss St lost at home to K-State and that Liberty team they beat lost 24-0 to a bad Syracuse team.
Ohio lost by just 2-points last week at Marshall and that's worth noting, as the Bobcats are 12-4 ATS under Solich off a loss by 3 or less. They have also covered 16 of their last 20 vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg (Lafayette +27.4 ppg). Take Ohio!
|09-21-19||Coastal Carolina v. UMass +17||62-28||Loss||-110||47 h 19 m||Show|
4* NCAAF Situational VEGAS INSIDER on UMass +17 -110
I think there's more than enough value here to take a flyer on the Minutemen. Far from an easy play to stomach given UMass has not covered in any of their games and lost outright by 25 as a 5.5-point home favorite to Southern Illinois.
However, the books know the betting public will want absolutely nothing to do with this UMass team, so we can feel good about the number we are getting. I just don't feel like a road win over Kansas justifies the Chanticleers laying 3 scores on the road.
As bad as UMass is defensively, Coastal Carolina is far from an offensive juggernaut. They only put up 23 at home to E Michigan and a mere 12 in the win against the Jayhawks. Not to mention, the Chanticleers got the defending Sun Belt champs on deck in Appalachian State. Take UMass!
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