|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|05-05-20||76ers GC -2.5 v. Raptors Uprising GC||Top||56-79||Loss||-115||1 h 60 m||Show|
5* BEST BET on 76ers GC -2½ -115
Analysis will be posted shortly
|03-11-20||DePaul v. Xavier -4.5||Top||71-67||Loss||-110||12 h 9 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH on Xavier -4½ -110
Easy play here on the Musketeers as a small favorite against DePaul in the opening round of the Big East Tournament. Xavier won both meetings between the two teams in the regular season. They won the first meeting on the road by 8 and then by 9 at home. Both times the Musketeers defense made it tough on the Blue Demons to score.
I see no reason to expect a different outcome, especially given how bad DePaul has been in the Big East Tournament under head coach Dave Leitao. Blue Demons have made 4 appearances under Leitao and have lost all 4, going just 1-3 ATS in those games. DePaul is also just 4-15 ATS last 19 as a neutral court dog of 6 or less.
Another key factor here is motivation. Xavier absolutely has to have this game and likely at least one more to have a legit shot at an at-large bid (currently projected as one of the first four teams out). Musketeers could also catch a big break, as DePaul's top player Paul Reed has missed the last 3 and is listed as questionable. Take Xavier!
|03-11-20||Iona v. St. Peter's -2||Top||54-56||Push||0||11 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO-BRAINER Top Play on St. Peter's -2 -115
Easy play here on the Peacocks as a slim 2-point favorite against the Gaels in Wednesday's quarterfinal matchup out of the MAAC Tournament. St. Peter's has a big edge in rest in this one. Peacocks haven't played since beating Iona in the regular-season finale last Friday. The Gaels on the other hand had to open up MAAC Tournament play yesterday against Canisius.
While Iona won and covered against Canisius as a 4.5-point favorite, the Gaels are just 1-5 ATS last 6 as a neutral site underdog. As for St. Peter's, they are headed into postseason play on a roll. Peacocks went 11-2 over their last 13 games.
St. Peter's is 16-5 ATS last 21 off a SU win and have covered 6 straight games on a neutral floor. Peacocks were tops in the MAAC in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. They allowed just 62.4 ppg on 39.9% shooting in conference play. Iona has not fared well agaisnt strong defensive teams, going just 2-8 ATS this season vs teams who held opponents to 42% or worse from the field. Take St. Peter's!
|03-11-20||Nuggets -1.5 v. Mavs||97-113||Loss||-109||10 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Nuggets -1½ -109
The fact that Denver is favored on the road against the Mavs really tells you all you need to know. The books set this line, knowing the betting public will be all over Dallas at this price. They are making it pretty clear that they like the Nuggets to win this game and I agree.
This is not a good spot at all for the Mavs, who have not been playing well. Dallas has lost two straight and are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. Big key here is the Mavs will be playing on no rest after last night's 109-119 loss at San Antonio. It's also their 3rd game in 4 nights.
Dallas is also just 3-8-1 ATS last 12 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and are 0-7 ATS last 7 games at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Denver!
|03-11-20||Washington +5.5 v. Arizona||70-77||Loss||-105||8 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Washington +5½ -105
I like the value here with the Huskies as a decently priced dog in their first round matchup against Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament. Washington ended up finishing last in the Pac-12, but were far from the worst team in the conference. Huskies are sitting 53rd in KenPom's rankings, which is better than 7 other teams in the Pac-12.
You also have to like how Washington closed out the regular-season, winning 3 of their last 4 games, including a 69-63 win on the road at Arizona in the finale. Huskies really should have swept the Wildcats, as they gave away a game at home to Arizona in a 72-75 loss.
Covering on a neutral site has been a big problem for Arizona. Wildcats are 0-7 ATS last 7 neutral site games and 0-6 ATS last 6 as a favorite. Arizona is also just 2-10 ATS last 12 on the road off a loss. Underdog has covered 5 of the last 6 meetings in the series. Take Washington!
|03-11-20||Pittsburgh v. NC State -4.5||Top||58-73||Win||100||4 h 6 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Early Bird NO LIMIT Top Play on NC State -4½ -110
Easy play here on the Wolfpack as a small favorite in Wednesday's action out of the ACC Tournament. NC State got a first round bye and will have a big rest advantage here over Pitt, who had to play yesterday against Wake Forest.
Panthers were able to knock off the Demon Deacons 81-72 in a high-scoring game and while they needed a late 2nd half run to pull away. Pitt just doesn't have the depth to play well on no rest. Panthers basically only play 7 guys and 4 of those logged 35+ minutes on Tuesday. Makings matters even worse is the fact that NC State likes to run, as they finished 3rd in the ACC in tempo.
Pitt ranked just 10th in the ACC in defensive efficiency and were 14th in effective field goal defense. The only thing that really saved them is turnovers, but that's negated here by a NC State team that had the 5th best turnover rate in the conference. I not only think the Wolfpack cover the small spread, I like them to win here in a blowout. Take NC State!
|03-10-20||Mavs -3 v. Spurs||109-119||Loss||-109||10 h 54 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt VEGAS ATS BLOWOUT on Mavs -3 -109
The Mavs are definitely worth a look as a slim road favorite at San Antonio. These two teams have already met three times this season and Dallas has won all three meetings. I look for them to no have no problem finishing off the season sweep against the short-handed Spurs.
San Antonio is down their top two big men in LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl. They area also going to be without another key contributor in Dejounte Murray. Dallas should be able to dominate the glass in this one. Not to mention their offense should pick apart a bad Spurs defense that is giving up 121 ppg on 49% shooting over their last 5 games.
Mavs are 19-6-1 ATS last 26 off a loss and 16-4-1 ATS last 21 as a road favorite. They have also covered 11 of the last 14 meetings with the Spurs. Take Dallas!
|03-10-20||Pittsburgh v. Wake Forest +1||81-72||Loss||-108||6 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Afternoon ATS ANNIHILATOR on Wake Forest +1 -108
No reason to overthink this one. Pitt finished the regular-season on a 7-game losing streak and 5 of the 7 defeats came by double-digits. Hard to believe this team was once sitting at 4-4 in ACC play (finished 6-14).
I get Wake Forest had the same record in ACC play, but unlike Pitt they played awful at the beginning of the year and got better as the season went on. Demon Deacons started out just 2-8 in league play before a 4-6 finish that included a win over Duke. Not to mention Wake Forest went into Pitt and beat the Panthers in the only meeting between the two.
No a big concern for revenge, as Pitt is just 10-23 ATS last 33 when revenging a loss. Panthers are also 3-14 ATS last 17 when they come in having lost 2 or more games in a row. Demon Deacons are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 games on a neutral floor. Take Wake Forest!
|03-09-20||IUPU Ft Wayne +2 v. North Dakota||Top||56-73||Loss||-103||10 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on IUPU Ft Wayne +2 -103
Easy play here on the Mastodons at basically a pick'em against North Dakota in the semifinals of the Summit Conference Tournament. IUPU Ft. Wayne followed up their strong showing on the road in the regular-season finale (lost by 6 at Oral Roberts as a 10.5-point dog) with a 77-74 win over South Dakota State on Saturday as a 7-point dog.
The Mastodons are now a strong 4-1 ATS last her last 5 games as a dog. They are also 28-13 ATS last 41 off an outright win as a dog. The Fighting Hawks also won as a dog in their first game of the Summit Tournament, but they are just 1-5 STS last 6 off a SU win.
Big factor here that favors IUPU Ft Wayne is that North Dakota does not force a lot of turnovers. Fighting Hawks rank just 337th in the country in defensive turnover rate. That's huge for a Mastodons offense that doesn't have a traditional true point guard. Take Ft Wayne!
|03-09-20||Hornets +4.5 v. Hawks||138-143||Loss||-110||9 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Hornets +4½ -110
Easy play here on the Hornets as a decently priced road dog against the Hawks. Charlotte has really been playing some of their best basketball over the last month. Hornets are 6-5 SU over their last 11 games.
Even more important is they are covering the number. Charlotte has cashed a winning ticket in 6 straight games and 9 of their last 11 overall. Most recently beating the Rockets 108-99 as a 8-point dog.
As for the Hawks, they come in having lost and failed to cover 3 straight. Atlanta will have the home court edge, but will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and have several guys banged up or dealing with a bit of the flu bug. Jeff Teague, De'Andre Hunter and DeAndre Bembry are all questionable to play.
Hornets have gone 15-5 ATS this season vs bad teams like the Hawks who have won between 25% to 40% of their games. Take Charlotte!
|03-09-20||Western Michigan v. Toledo -8.5||Top||73-76||Loss||-110||10 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Toledo -8½ -110
The Rockets are definitely worth a look to cover the spread at home against Western Michigan. Toledo finished with a mere 8-10 record in MAC play, but that's a bit misleading in terms of how the Rockets are playing. Toledo has won 5 of their last 7 games, which includes a 9-point road win over Western Michigan.
While the Rockets are surging to the finish line, Western Michigan went just 2-6 over their final 8 games. Broncos ended the year with an ugly 68-85 loss to rival Central Michigan, who came into that game on a 9-game losing streak.
Rockets went 4-1 ATS over their last 5 games and the favorite has covered 5 of the last 6 in the series. Broncos are 0-4 ATS last 4 as a road dog. Take Toledo!
|03-08-20||Raptors v. Kings UNDER 228.5||118-113||Loss||-110||10 h 26 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night Total ANNIHILATOR on Raptors/Kings under 228½ -110
I really like the UNDER in Sunday's late night NBA action that has the Raptors visiting the Kings. Toronto's offense has been potent here of late, scoring 118 or more in each of their last 3, but the last two came against the Suns and Warriors.
I just think we are going to see a bit of an uninterested Raptors' team in this one. This will be Toronto's 4th straight on the road in their 5-game west coast trip, which concludes with a much bigger game tomorrow night in Utah.
Kings also figure to be playing at a much slower pace than normal, as they will be on no rest after a up-tempo game last night in Portland. Sacramento also just got back one of their top defensive players in Richaun Holmes. Take the UNDER!
|03-08-20||Heat -4.5 v. Wizards||100-89||Win||100||9 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Heat -4½ -110
I know Miami has had their struggles on the road this season, but I just feel like this is too good a price to pass up with the Heat. Washington is somehow still in the playoff mix and are fresh off a win and cover at home against Atlanta. I think it has the Wizards getting to much love here against what I expect to be a desperate Heat team off a loss at New Orleans.
Miami has been a good team to back off a loss, going 15-6 ATS after defeat this season. Washington is also a team they have had a lot of success against. Heat are 25-9-2 ATS in their last 36 trips to DC. Wizards just 1-4-1 ATS last 6 off a win and 1-7 ATS last 8 times they have had to play on Sunday. Take Miami!
|03-08-20||Tulsa v. Wichita State -6.5||57-79||Win||100||6 h 32 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Wichita State -6½ -110
Most will be looking to take the points here with Tulsa. The Golden Hurricanes can clinch the outright AAC regular-season title with a win and already beat Wichita State at home earlier this season. Much like the books, I'm not a believer in Tulsa.
I look for the Shockers to win big here at home, where they are 12-2 on the season. Wichita State is also 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 home games against the Golden Hurricane. I just don't see Tulsa being able to score enough to keep it close. Golden Hurricane are only averaging 63.5 ppg on 41% shooting from the field and 25% from deep on the road this season. Take Wichita State!
|03-08-20||East Carolina v. UCF -7.5||Top||62-94||Win||100||5 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on UCF -7½ -110
Easy play here on UCF at home against the Pirates, as the Knights should have no problem winning by double-digits in this one. East Carolina is a mere 3-11 over tehir last 14 games and just got annihilated on their home floor 84-63 by UConn.
UCF won the first meeting between these two by just 4 at ECU, but that game felt a lot more lopsided. Knights shot 48% to the Pirates 41% and were even on the boards, free throws and turnovers. Seeing how ECU is just 2-11 on the road and giving up 75 ppg away from home, this one figures to get ugly in a hurry.
Pirates are 2-10 ATS over the last 3 seasons in toad games against a marginal winning team that has won between 51% to 60% of their games and are losing in this spot by an 15.5 ppg. Take UCF!
|03-07-20||76ers v. Warriors +2.5||114-118||Win||100||10 h 4 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Warriors +2½ -110
This is just too good a price to pass up with Golden State. The Warriors are a team that just got back their best player in Steph Curry and despite a sub-par shooting night, he still managed to score 25 in his first game back from injury. I think Curry makes GS a dangerous team, as I think we are going to see his return spark the entire team into playing well.
It's hard to not like them in this spot. 76ers were able to win at Sacramento last time out, but no way can this team be trusted on the road without their two best players in Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons.
Philadelphia is 6-20-1 ATS last 27 road games, 1-5 ATS last 6 as a road favorite and 0-5 ATS last 5 off a win by 10 or more points. Take Golden State!
|03-07-20||Oklahoma +2 v. TCU||78-76||Win||100||15 h 51 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Prime Time ATS BLOWOUT on Oklahoma +2 -115
I like the Sooners to go into Fort Worth and cover as a small dog against the Horned Frogs. Oklahoma won the first meeting between these two by a score of 83-63. It was complete domination, as they shot 54% from the field, while holding TCU to 38%.
One of the big reasons that I don't see the script being flipped with a change in venue is the Sooners ability to take care of the basketball. The Horned Frogs defense really relies on their ability to force turnovers, as they struggle to get stops when they don't take the ball away. TCU is just 5-15 ATS this season vs teams who average 14 or fewer turnovers/game (Sonners average just 11).
Oklahoma has also dominated this series more than just that first meeting this season. Sooners have won 15 of the last 18 meetings between the two teams. They have won 6 of their last 8 trips to TCU. Take Oklahoma!
|03-07-20||UCLA v. USC -3||Top||52-54||Loss||-115||12 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Pac-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on USC -3 -115
I absolutely love the Trojans laying a slim 3-points at home against rival UCLA. The Bruins have caught fire in the second half of the season and come into this game having won 7 straight, but I think it has them getting way to much respect in this one.
USC enters off back-to-back impressive home wins over Arizona (57-48) and Arizona State (71-61). That's now 4 straight home wins for the Trojans, who are 13-2 on their home floor this season. The defense has been outstanding during their last 4 at home, as they held all 4 teams to 61 or fewer.
Let's also not forget that USC went on the road and beat UCLA by 11 earlier this season. I get the Bruins are playing better now, but they could do next to nothing offensively in that game, shooting just 38% from the field and 3-13 from deep.
UCLA is just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games and 4-13 ATS in their last 17 on the road after 2 or more wins in a row. The home team is 7-3 ATS last 10 in the series. Take USC!
|03-07-20||UTEP v. Rice OVER 139.5||77-72||Win||100||12 h 18 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money Total HEAVY HITTER on UTEP/Rice over 139½ -109
Rice and UTEP should have no problem eclipsing the total. This will actually be the third meeting between these two this season. Both of the first two games went under, but both teams shot poorly in both games and still each had at least 130 points.
OVER has been a strong play when the Owls are laying points at home, cashing in 4 straight. OER is also a staggering 8-0 in Rice's last 8 games when playing with double-revenge and the average combined score in these games is 157.1. OVER is also 8-1 in the Owls last 9 off 2 or more wins in a row and 32-15 in UTEP's last 47 after allowing 65 or less in 3 straight games. Take the OVER!
|03-07-20||Georgia v. LSU UNDER 159.5||64-94||Win||100||11 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DOMINATOR on Georgia/LSU under 159½ -115
The UNDER is definitely worth a look here in Saturday's SEC matchup that has LSU hosting Georgia. Really big game for the Tigers, who need to win to lock up a double-bye in the SEC Tournament. That should lead to a big effort defensively from LSU sho should also be motivated to play well after giving up 99 at Arkansas last time out.
Georgia comes in off 14-point home loss at Florida, where they managed just 54 points and that game is worth noting. UNDER is 16-7 in the Bulldogs last 23 off a double-digit loss at home and 8-1 in their last 9 after playing a game as a home dog.
UNDER is also 6-2-1 in the Tigers last 9 at home vs a team with a losing road record and 13-3 in LSU's last 16 home games after playing in a game with a combined score of 175 or more. Take the UNDER!
|03-07-20||Rutgers v. Purdue UNDER 127.5||71-68||Loss||-110||11 h 42 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Rutgers/Purdue under 127½ -110
Easy play on the UNDER in Saturday's Big Ten clash between Purdue and Rutgers. These two combined for 133 in the first meeting at Rutgers, as the Scarlet Knights won 70-63. I think that result has created value with the number this time around. Total for that first meeting was just 120.5.
Purdue is only giving up 59.8 ppg on 39% shooting at home this season and Rutgers' offense hasn't exactly traveled well. Big reason why the Scarlet Knights are a mere 1-10 on the road. Boilermakers also like to slow the game down. They are dead last in the Big Ten in tempo and 334th overall in that department.
Both teams rank in the Top 4 of the Big Ten in defensive efficiency and are both in the bottom half of the conference in offensive efficiency. Take the UNDER!
|03-07-20||George Mason v. Fordham UNDER 120.5||65-61||Loss||-110||11 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on George Mason/Fordham under 120½ -110
This has the makings of a very ugly offensive game, which tends to be the case anytime Fordham is involved. The Rams play solid defense, as they are giving up just 63.5 ppg in conference games and are 5th in the A-10 in defensive efficiency. The problem is they can't score. Fordham averages just 55.2 ppg in league play (dead last in the A-10 in offensive efficiency).
George Mason figures to have a hard time scoring in this one. Patriots aren't as bad as the Rams, but are one of the worst offenses in the A-10. Big problem here is Fordham does a great job of forcing teams to take 3-pointers and the outside shot is not a strength of George Mason. They only shoot 30% from deep and average a mere 6 made 3-pointers/game.
UNDER is 10-3 in Fordham's last 13 home games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games, 8-3 in their last 11 as a dog and 23-9 in their last 32 off a SU win. Take the UNDER!
|03-07-20||Baylor +1.5 v. West Virginia||64-76||Loss||-109||10 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Baylor +1½ -109
Easy play here on the Bears getting points at West Virginia. I get the Mountaineers were able to snap a 4-game skid with a win at ISU on Tuesday, but no way should they be favored over the likes of Baylor, especially when you take into account what happened in the first meeting and how these two matchup.
The Bears absolutely dominated West Virginia, defeating the Mountaineers by a final of 70-59. The final score does not do justice to how lopsided that game was. Baylor was up 53-25 in the 2nd half. They shot 52% from the field, while limited the WVU to 35%.
You also have to think the Bears are going to be motivated to win here. With a win and a Kansas loss on the road at Texas Tech, Baylor would earn a share of the Big 12 regular season title. Bears are 6-0 ATS this season on the road vs quality teams that are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game and 12-3 ATS last 15 as a road dog. Take Baylor!
|03-07-20||Wisconsin v. Indiana UNDER 130||60-56||Win||100||9 h 46 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird Total ANNIHILATOR on Wisconsin/Indiana under 130 -110
The UNDER is worth a look in Saturday's early Big 10 action that has Wisconsin visiting Indiana. These two combined for 148 when they played way back in early December. That was simply a result of the Badgers going off, as they shot 54% from the field and 40% from deep.
I'm confident they will regress in the rematch. Wisconsin is only averaging 67.4 ppg on 43% shooting for the season, so that was clearly an outlier. They are even worse on the road, where they are only scoring 60.9 ppg on 40% shooting (only 30% from deep). Indiana's defense may rank bottom half in the Big Ten, but they are giving up just 66.9 ppg on 42% shooting at home, where they are 15-3 compared to 4-8 on the road.
No reason to expect a ton offensively from the Hoosiers. While the Badgers' offense hasn't traveled well, their defense has. Wisconsin also plays at one of the slowest paces in the conference.
UNDER is 10-4 in their 14 road games this season. UNDER is also 14-5 in Badgers last 19 as a dog and 13-3 in Indiana's last 16 when revenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more. Take the UNDER!
|03-06-20||Santa Clara v. Pepperdine -1||73-84||Win||100||14 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Pepperdine -1 -110
Hard not to like Pepperdine at basically a pick'em against Santa Clara in the 2nd round of the WCC Tournament. Big rest advantage for the Waves, who got a first round bye, while the Broncos had to play Portland yesterday. Note that Portland (3 wins) is the only team Santa Clara has beat since Jan. 25.
Playing on no rest this time a year is tough on a college team and I just don't feel that it's taken into the line enough. Pepperdine won both meetings between these two in the regular-season. They won in OT at Santa Clara and then won by 14 at home. Both times the Waves reach 90 points.
Pepperdine is 7-1 ATS on the season in road games against solid teams who are outscoring opponents by 4+ points/game. Waves are also 10-2 ATS last 12 after 2 or more losses (lost last two). Take Pepperdine!
|03-06-20||Ball State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 126.5||Top||75-54||Loss||-110||11 h 39 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - MAC TOTAL PLAY OF THE YEAR on Ball State/Northern Illinois under 126½ -110
I absolutely love the UNDER in Friday's MAC West showdown that has Ball State visiting Northern Illinois. These two are 1-2 in their respective division and both come in playing well. Ball State has won 3 of their last 4, while the Huskies have gone 9-3 in their last 12.
Both teams were outstanding defensively last time out. The Cardinals held Central Michigan to just 68 points on 38% shooting, while NIU limited one of the best offenses in the MAC in Toledo to just 50 points on 30% shooting.
These two teams played once already back on Feb. 11 and that game saw a combined score of just 122. I think they will be lucky to get to 120 in the rematch.
UNDER is 9-1 in Ball State's last 10 road games and 9-2 in their last 11 as a road dog of 6 points or less. UNDER is also 11-3 in Northern Illinois last 14 off a game with a combined score of 125 or less and 7-1 in their last 8 at home off a win. Take the UNDER!
|03-06-20||Hawks +3 v. Wizards||112-118||Loss||-115||8 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Hawks +3 -115
I like this spot with Atlanta as a slim road dog at Washington. I'm just not buying the Wizards as a playoff team and I think some of that talk is playing into this great price with the Hawks here. You also are getting Atlanta on the cheap after they were just annihilated 127-88 at home by Memphis.
Thing about that loss to the Grizzlies is they aren't the first team that Memphis has done that to here of late. Grizzlies have also held the Lakers to 88 and the Nets to 79 over their last 3 games. Prior to that Atlanta was playing well coming off back-to-back wins.
Washington has lost their last two, most recently losing by 21 at Portland. While the Wizards will be at home here, it's not the greatest spot. They only got one day to regroup from their 4-game west coast trip and will be playing their 3rd game in 4 nights. Hawks on the other hand have had the last 3 days off. Take Atlanta!
|03-05-20||Weber State -4 v. Idaho||Top||72-64||Win||100||12 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Weber State -4 -110
I love the value here with the Wildcats laying a small number on the road against the Vandals. The books have really struggled to price Idaho here of late. The Vandals are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games. It's gotten worse down the stretch, as they have lost and failed to cover each of their last 5 games, losing all 5 by double-digits.
Not only does the current form favor Weber State, but this is a great matchup for the Wildcats. Idaho struggles to score inside and Weber State defends the 2-point shot well. If the outside shot isn't falling the Vandals are in big trouble, because the Wildcats are going to score. Weber State shoots 51% on 2-point shots, third best in the Big Sky, and that's an area the Vandals struggle to defend.
Weber State has failed to cover their last two games, but that's almost more of a positive than a negative. Wildcats are 23-9-2 ATS last 34 off a failed cover and 8-1 ATS last 9 after 2 straight games where they didn't cover. Take Weber State!
|03-05-20||UMKC +3.5 v. Utah Valley||61-51||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on UMKC +3½ -109
Easy play on the Kangaroos getting points against the Wolverines. I get Utah Valley has the home court edge, but they are just 2-5 in their last 7 games with those two wins coming at home against bottom feeders Cal St. Bakersfield and Grand Canyon.
UMKC has won 3 straight and their strong play goes back even further than that, as they are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 games. You also have to like the fact the Kangaroos won the earlier meeting between the two and did so jumping out to a 30-19 lead at the half. UMKC's defense held the Wolverines to just 34.5% shooting and forced them into 18 turnovers.
Kangaroos are 16-5 ATS last 21 games off a win and 5-0-1 ATS last 6 as an underdog, including 3-0-1 ATS last 4 as a road dog. Utah Valley is 3-7 ATS last 10 off a loss and a dreadful 3-11 ATS last 14 as a favorite (2-8 ATS last 10 as a home favorite). Take UMKC!
|03-05-20||Clippers +1 v. Rockets||120-105||Win||100||9 h 59 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Clippers +1 -110
I really like the value here with Los Angeles as a slim 1-point dog at Houston. The Rockets have been playing much better since their move to small ball, but did just lose at New York as a double-digit favorite on Monday. They have shot just 42% from the field in each of their last 2 games.
I just feel like the Clippers are playing the basketball of any team since the All-Star break. The additions of Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson have been huge. LA is arguably the deepest team in the league and just think they will be able to not only defend Harden and Westbrook, but wear down the Rockets with their onslaught of talent.
LA has covered 21 of their last 33 against high-scoring teams that are averaging 110+ points/game and are 46-29 (61%) last 75 road games vs teams who allow 106+ points/game. Take Los Angeles!
|03-05-20||Illinois State v. Drake -2.5||65-75||Win||100||10 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - MVC Tournament ATS NO-BRAINER on Drake -2½ -110
The Bulldogs are worth a look here as a small favorite against the Redbirds. Drake had a tough finish to the regular-season, losing 3 straight, including a 53-57 loss at Illinois State that started the skid and a ugly 43-70 loss at home to UNI to end it.
I just trust the Bulldogs a lot more in this spot. Drake was the much better team in MVC play at 8-9, as Illinoi State went just 5-13 with two of their 5 wins coming against Evansville, who finished 0-18 in league play.
Drake is 15-5-1 ATS last 21 neutral site games and 8-2-1 ATS last 11 neutral site games when listed as a favorite. They are also 4-0 ATS last 4 off a double-digit loss at home. and 4-1 ATS last 5 off a loss by more than 20 points.
Adding to this is a solid system in favor of the Bulldogs. Teams playing with revenge from a loss where they scored 60 or fewer and off a conference loss by 10 or more are 129-75 (63%) ATS if playing on a neutral site. Take Drake!
|03-04-20||Dayton -3.5 v. Rhode Island||84-57||Win||100||23 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Dayton -3½ -109
The Flyers are worth a look here as a small road favorite against Rhode Island. Dayton has proven to be in a class of their own in the A-10. They are 16-0 in league play (no other team has fewer than 4 losses) and have made it clear they want to go undefeated in league play. A big reason for that is they feel if they run the table and win the A-10 Tournament, they got a legit shot at a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
That's more than enough motivation for me to lay the short number with the Flyers. Especially with how poorly Rhode Island has been playing down the stretch. The Rams were at one points 10-1 in league play, but have lost 3 of their last 5, including a 14-point loss at Dayton and most recently a shocking 10-point loss at home to St Louis (never led). Their two wins were both against bottom feeders in St. Joe's and Fordham (only won by 1-point).
Rams are just 2-6 ATS last 8 at home against a team with a winning road record, while the Flyers are 10-3 ATS this season when playing only their 2nd game in a 8-day stretch. Take Dayton!
|03-04-20||Florida State v. Notre Dame +2.5||73-71||Win||100||12 h 36 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Notre Dame +2½ -115
The simple fact that Florida State is basically a pick'em in this spot against an unranked Notre Dame team says it all. The books are begging the public to take the Seminoles. Anytime something looks too good to be true, especially this late in the year, it typically is, which is why I like the Irish to win and cover.
We did just see FSU lose at Clemson as a mere 3.5-point favorite on Saturday and you have to wonder if the pressure of winning the school's first ever ACC title in hoops is a bit too much for them.
As for the Irish, their NCAA Tournament hopes took a massive hit with a loss at Wake Forest, but a win here could get them back into the conversation. Notre Dame is still trending in the right direction with 7 wins in their last 10 games.
Their ability to take care of the ball (No. 2 in turnover rate) is huge against Florida State, who relies a lot on forcing their opponents into mistakes. We also saw the Irish go on the road and lose by just one-points (84-85) at FSU earlier this season.
Irish are 4-1 ATS last 5 at home, 3-1-1 ATS last 5 as a dog and the underdog has covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. Take Notre Dame!
|03-04-20||Celtics v. Cavs +2.5||112-106||Loss||-105||9 h 35 m||Show|
3* NBA - Public Money ATS DESTROYER on Cavs +2½ -105
A lot of people are going to look at this line and blindly back the Celtics at basically a pick'em on the road against the Cavs. Those that do will likely regret it. Boston isn't to show up for this game, but it's going to look nothing like the team that has started out 41-19 in their first 60 games.
Both Jason Tatum and Kemba Walker are listed as OUT for this game. Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward are also both listed as doubtful and there's a chance Marcus Smart ends up missing the game due to a suspension.
On top of that, Boston will be playing on no rest after playing at home last night against the Nets, which they lost 120-129 in OT. Playing extra minutes was the last thing they needed and that game could be one that's hard to get over, as they allowed 51 points in the 4th quarter to let the game get to OT. Take Cleveland!
|03-04-20||St. Louis -2 v. George Mason||Top||69-57||Win||100||21 h 49 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Atlantic 10 GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis -2 -110
I absolutely love the value here with the Billikens as a slim 2-point road favorite against the Patriots. St. Louis has saved their best basketball of the season for the stretch run and this is simply too good a price to pass up.
Billikens have won 3 straight and are off a dominating 72-62 win at Rhode Island as a 6-point dog. St. Louis never trailed and hit 53% from the field. Marking their 5th straight game where they have shot 50% or better from the field. Hard to see the Billikens slowing down in this one. George Mason is allowing A-10 opposing teams to shoot 47% from the field and just let Duquesne connect on 56% in their last game.
Also the one thing that the Patriots offense does well is offensive rebound, but that will be negated here, as St Louis is No. 2 in the conference in defensive rebounding.
Billikens have covered 10 of their last 13 road games vs a team that's won 60% or more of their home games. George Mason is 6-20 ATS last 26 at home vs a team with a winning road record and are 2-7 ATS last 9 as a home dog. Take St. Louis!
|03-04-20||Massachusetts +2.5 v. La Salle||75-64||Win||100||9 h 24 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Massachusetts +2½ -110
The Minutemen are worth a look here as a slim road dog against the Explorers. While UMass is coming in off an ugly 24-point loss at Richmond, they had won 3 straight prior to laying an egg against the Spiders.
One of the big reasons things went south against Richmond is the Spiders are a team that takes great care of the ball (No. 1 in A-10 in turnover pct.) and UMass really needs their pressure to force mistakes for them to have success.
Good news for the Minutemen is the Explores are a team that struggle to take care of the ball. La Salle ranks dead last in the A-10 in turnover rate, coughing it up 21.6% of the time.
These two played back in January and UMass won that matchup 77-69. Their offense had no problem exploiting the Explorers defense, shooting 49% from the field. La Salle on the other hand shot just 40%.
Another huge factor here is La Salle just had a starter, Ed Croswell leave the team. Croswell averaged 10.0 ppg (leading scorer averages 10.4 and only 3 guys in double-figures). They could also be without guard Scott Spencer. Take UMass!
|03-04-20||Xavier +5 v. Providence||74-80||Loss||-110||9 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Xavier +5 -110
I like the Musketeers getting a decent number here on the road against the Friars. These two teams met up about a month ago with Xavier winning a defensive battle 64-58. Some might think Providence is primed for revenge with the Friars having won 4 straight, but the Musketeers have won 4 of their last 5 on the road with the only loss by a mere 5-points at Butler.
This is also a brutal spot for Providence. I know the Friars are fighting for their postseason lives right now, but it's going to be near impossible for them to not suffer some kind of letdown after their 58-54 upset win at Villanova on Saturday.
Friars are also a team that thrives a lot more in the role of the underdog. Providence is just 18-31 ATS over the last 3 seasons as a favorite, including a mere 3-7 ATS mark in their last 10 as a favorite. Road team has covered 4 of the last 5 in the series with the underdog cashing in 5 of the last 6. Take Xavier!
|03-03-20||Wolves v. Pelicans -11||139-134||Loss||-110||10 h 33 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans -11 -110
I got no problem laying the big number with the Pelicans at home. I look for New Orleans to make easy work of the Timberwolves. The Pelicans will be eager to take the court after a disappointing 4th quarter in Sunday's 114-122 loss to the Lakers. This is a much improved team with Zion in the mix. They are 9-5 in their last 14 with 4 of those losses coming against the Lakers (twice), Rockets and Bucks.
Minnesota is a bit of a mess. They traded away Wiggins and brought in a ton of new pieces. They are trying to figure things out on the fly without their best player in Towns, who is still out with a wrist injury. They are struggling to win games. They are 1-5 since the break with all 5 losses by double-digits.
Rest is also a huge factor here. Pelicans are playing their 3rd straight at home and this will be just their 3rd game in the last 7 days. Minnesota on the other hand will be playing their 5th road game in their last 6 overall and their 6th game in the last 10 days overall. Take New Orleans!
|03-03-20||Ohio +8.5 v. Akron||67-74||Win||100||10 h 50 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Ohio +8½ -109
I absolutely love the value here with the Bobcats as a near double-digit dog at Akron. The Zips come in tied with Bowling Green for the top record in MAC play at 12-4. Akron has already locked up a first round by in the MAC tournament. There's really no incentive here for the Zips to go all out in this matchup.
As for Ohio, they are still fighting for seeding and need to stay in the Top 9 of the conference to make sure they get their first game at home in the MAC Tournament. Bobcats are also a team that is surging down the stretch. Ohio is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS (4 straight covers) in their last 7 games. They are 12-4 ATS in conference games this season.
Bobcats only lost by 2 (86-88) at home to the Zips earlier this season, so they know they can compete with Akron. An outright win here is not out of the question. Zips just 1-5 ATS last 6 at home vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their road games and 1-4 ATS last 5 as a home favorite. Take Ohio!
|03-03-20||Arkansas-Little Rock +3.5 v. Georgia State||Top||70-89||Loss||-110||10 h 38 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Sun Belt GAME OF THE MONTH on Arkansas-Little Rock +3½ -110
I love the value here with Little Rock getting points on the road against the Panthers. The perception here is that the Trojans won't show up for this game because they just wrapped up the Sun Belt regular-season title and will be looking ahead to the conference tournament.
While it's certainly not a do-or-die scenario for Little Rock, I don't think they are going to just not show up. Last thing they want to do is kill their momentum by losing this game. This is a team that's 100% locked in on making the NCAA Tournament.
The other big thing here is that there's not a ton for Georgia State to play for either. The fact that this game doesn't mean anything to the Trojans takes away some of the motivation for the Panthers to play their best.
This is their finale game at home, which often can be big cause it's senior night. However, Georgia State is a young team. They only got one senior on the team that plays in Damon Wilson. He's a decent contributor (4th scoring option), but I don't think they are going to go all out for his final home game.
Trojans are 9-3-1 ATS last 13 vs a team with a winning record and 4-1 ATS last 5 on the road vs a team that's won more than 60% of their home games. Trojans are also 6-0 ATS this season when off a conference win by 10 or more (beat Lafayette 91-69 last time out). Take Arkansas-Little Rock!
|03-03-20||Wisc-Milwaukee +6 v. Youngstown State||57-63||Push||0||9 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Wisc-Milwaukee +6 -109
Give me the Panthers and the points in their 1st round matchup of the Horizon League Championship against Youngstown State. These two teams just played each other in the regular-season finale. A game the Penguins won on the road by 4-points. It was a bit of payback, as the Panthers won the first meeting at Youngstown 75-73 in OT.
Getting 6-points in a game that you can expect to be close is just too good to pass up. I would this line closer to the Penguins -3, simply because it's on their home floor. Milwaukee is 23-10 ATS last 33 when revenging a home loss, while Youngstown is 25-43 (36.7%) last 68 as a home favorite of 6 or less and have failed to cover 6 straight off a win by 6 or less. Take Wisc-Milwaukee!
|03-02-20||Idaho State v. Weber State OVER 139.5||Top||78-70||Win||100||11 h 12 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Sky GAME OF THE MONTH on Idaho State/Weber State over 139½ -110
Easy play here on the OVER 139.5 in Monday's matchup of Big Sky bottom feeders Weber State and Idaho State.
These two teams faced off back on Jan. 16. The Wildcats defeated the Bengals 76-68 for a combined score of 144, easily eclipsing the total of 133.5. Books have adjusted, but not enough. Big system supporting a play on the OVER.
OVER is 112-60 (65%) over last 5 season when the road team is revenging a loss where they allowed 75 or more, as long as it's a matchup of two bad teams that have won between 20% - 40% of their games.
OVER is also 12-1 in Idaho State's last 13 games overall and 6-0 in their last 6 as a road underdog. OVER is 7-3 in Wildcats last 10 as a home favorite and 4-0 in their last 4 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Take the OVER!
|03-02-20||Grizzlies v. Hawks OVER 239.5||127-88||Loss||-109||20 h 27 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Grizzlies/Hawks over 239½ -109
I really like the value here with the OVER 239.5. This is a massive number for a NBA total, but with the style in which the Hawks play, these two should have no problem eclipsing the mark.
Atlanta basically plays to outscore their opponent, as they want to run and gun behind 2nd-year All-Star Trae Young. Hawks are No. 4 in the NBA in pace and No. 28 in defensive efficiency. They are No. 29 in points/allowed at 119.1 ppg, barely in front of the last place Wizards (119.9 ppg).
While they only average 114 ppg at home, they come in averaging 122.6 ppg in their last 5. Hard to see Memphis slowing them down. Grizzlies are giving up 116.6 ppg on the road. Memphis also wants to play fast, as they are No. 7 in pace.
OVER is 7-3 in the Grizzlies last 10 road games and 4-0 in their last 4 on the road against a team with a losing home record. OVER is 21-8 in Atlanta's last 29 at home vs a team with a losing road record, 11-4 in their last 15 off a win and 5-0 last 5 off a win by more than 10 points. Take the OVER!
|03-01-20||Colorado v. Stanford -1||64-72||Win||100||8 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Stanford -1 -109
Stanford is definitely worth a look here as a pick'em at home against the Buffaloes. The line really says it all. Colorado is the ranked team and yet they are the dog in the fight. I couldn't agree more.
For one, the Cardinal are extremely tough to beat at home. Stanford is 13-4 at home this season and are fresh off a 8-point win and cover at home against the Utes. Cardinal have won 3 straight as they are surging after a midseason funk that saw them lose 7 of 8.
As for Colorado, they are off back-to-back losses. Most recently losing by 14 at Cal as a 8.5-point favorite. Buffaloes are not a great road team and are shooting just 40% from the field away from home. Colorado has also been overvalued by the books a ton of late. Buffaloes are a miserable 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games.
Colorado is 6-16 ATS last 22 as a road underdog, while the Cardinal are 10-2 ATS last 12 at home off a conference win. Take Stanford!
|03-01-20||Mavs -6.5 v. Wolves||111-91||Win||100||5 h 0 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational ATS VEGAS INSIDER on Mavs -6½ -110
I got no problem laying the points with Dallas on the road against Minnesota. The Timberwolves are still without their best player in Karl-Anthony Towns and are trying to piece together all the new pieces they acquired at the trade deadline.
Winning is just not a priority for this team and that's pretty evident by the lack of defense they are playing. Minnesota has allowed 4 straight opponents to shoot 51% or better from the field and have not held an opponent under 46% from the field in a month.
Dallas is not the team you want to be facing without a defense, especially with the Mavs coming off a loss at Miami last time out. Dallas is scoring 117.4 ppg on the road this season and are averaging 119 ppg over their last 5. Mavs are also 11-3-1 ATS this season when listed as a road favorite. Take Dallas!
|03-01-20||South Florida v. Temple -3||Top||64-58||Loss||-109||2 h 26 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE MONTH on Temple -3 -109
I really like the value here with Tempe laying such a short number at home against the Bulls. The Owls are going to be extremely motivated to take their home floor after a couple of really close calls on the road, losing by 4 last Sunday at ECU and then by 3 at Wichita State on Thursday.
Prior to those two losses, Temple had won 3 straight league games, including a 93-89 win over UConn in their last home game. The fact that the Owls were a 3-point favorite at home to UConn, says a lot about the value here, laying the same number against a USF team that has lost 4 of 5.
Bulls are off a win, but that was at home against ECU and it was a game that went to OT. Could be real tough for USF to bounce back on the road, especially with two monster home games against Cincinnati and SMU looming to close out the regular-season portion of their schedule.
Owls are 50-29 (63%) ATS in their last 79 home games as a favorite of 6 points or less, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a losing record and 4-0 ATS last 4 off a SU loss. Take Temple!
|02-29-20||Rockets +2 v. Celtics||111-110||Win||100||10 h 60 m||Show|
3* NBA - Prime Time ATS KNOCKOUT on Rockets +2 -105
The books are begging you to take the Celtics here at basically a pick'em at home and I'm showing close to 70% of the public taking the bait. That is reason enough on its own to be looking at Houston as a small dog.
I know the Celtics are a talented team, but taking on the likes of James Harden and Russell Westbrook is a tall task without starting point guard Kemba Walker, even at home. You also have to factor in how well Houston is playing. Rockets have won 5 straight and are 4-1 ATS in their last 5. Houston is a very streaky team and when they are hot they tend to stay hot for long stretches.
Rockets are 8-2 ATS last 10 on the road vs a team with a winning home record and 11-3 ATS last 13 when playing on 2 days of rest. Take Houston!
|02-29-20||Delaware -3.5 v. NC-Wilmington||82-65||Win||100||20 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Delaware -3½ -109
I got no problem here laying a small number with the Blue Hens at UNC Wilmington. Delaware has lost 3 of their last 4, which is playing into the number, but those 3 losses have come against 3 of the top 4 teams in the league.
All that does is increase the likelihood that the Blue Hens are going to show up here with a big effort and that's really all we need. If Delaware comes to play, they should have no problem winning this game by more than the number. Blue Hens beat the Seahawks by 14 at home and the final score doesn't do justice. Delaware had a 27 point lead at one point in the 2nd half.
Blue Hens are 38-19 ATS last 57 road games after losing 3 of their last 4 and are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings of this series. Take Delaware!
|02-29-20||Morehead State +5 v. Eastern Kentucky||76-80||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER on Morehead State +5 -110
I really like the value here with the Eagles catching points on the road against Eastern Kentucky. This might seem like a favorable price to back the Colonels at home given they are 11-6 in the Ohio Valley and Morehead is just 7-10.
Thing is there's really no motivation here for EKU, who is locked into the No. 4 seed for the OVC Tournament. The Colonels also come into this game in bad form. They have lost their last two and 4 of 6 overall.
Morehead State should be motivated to get a win here to move up in the standings. The Eagles also know they can compete with EKU, as the only lost by 7 at home to the Colonels.
Both teams played on Thursday and that's worth noting as Eastern Kentucky is a dreadful 3-11 ATS at home when playing with one or less days of rest. Colonels are also 1-7 ATS last 8 off a loss by 10 or more and 0-6 ATS last 6 off 2 straight losses by 10 or more. Take Morehead State!
|02-29-20||Northern Iowa v. Drake +4.5||Top||70-43||Loss||-110||19 h 35 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Missouri Valley PLAY OF THE YEAR on Drake +4½ -110
I love the value here with Drake as a home dog against in-state rival UNI. Given the Panthers are 13-4 and leading the MVC, while the Bulldogs are just 8-9, you might think this is a good price to back UNI. Not me. Drake may have a losing record in league play, but that's only because they can't win on the road.
The Bulldogs are 14-1 on their home floor this season and this is one they have had their eyes on. The Knapp Center will be close to a sellout and I fully expect Drake to win this outright. They have already knocked off other top contenders in the MVC at home in Loyola, Bradley and Indiana State.
They did lose the first meeting to UNI by 10 points, 73-83, but that was as misleading a final as you will see. Drake led most of that game and it was tied 68-68 with just over minutes to play before the Panthers closed on a 15-5 run.
UNI is a mere 3-12 ATS in Saturday road games over the last 3 season, while the Bulldogs are 37-16-2 ATS last 55 at home, 20-8 ATS last 28 off a loss and 18-5 ATS last 23 as a home dog. Take Drake!
|02-29-20||NC-Greensboro -2.5 v. Chattanooga||72-74||Loss||-110||7 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on NC-Greensboro -2½ -110
The Spartans are definitely worth a look here as a slim road favorite against Chattanooga. UNC Greensboro had their 6-game home winning streak snapped in a ugly loss at home to Furman on Wednesday. With this the regular-season finale, I look for the Spartans to close things out before the Southern Conference Tournament with a big time performance.
The Mocs come in off a home win, but only twice all season have they been able to put together back-to-back wins in conference play. Hard to see them doing against Greensboro. The Spartans whooped up on Chattanooga 72-52 in the first meeting and have won 4 straight in the series by double-digits.
Spartans are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 off a SU loss and 10-4-1 ATS last 15 off a game where they failed to cover. Mocs are 2-6 ATS last 8 as a home dog and 1-10 ATS last 11 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Greensboro!
|02-29-20||Florida State v. Clemson +3.5||69-70||Win||100||5 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Clemson +3½ -105
I really like the Tigers as a home dog against the Seminoles in Saturday's action out of the ACC. FSU comes in sitting on top the ACC at 14-3 having just earned that spot with a 82-67 win at home over Louisville on Monday.
I just see the Seminoles having a hard time not having some kind of letdown here on the road against rival Clemson. The Tigers did lost at Georgia Tech on Tuesday, but had won 3 straight prior and will be highly motivated for revenge from a 19-point loss at FSU earlier this season.
Clemson has covered 17 of their last 24 when facing a team that has outscored opponents by 8+ points/game at least 15 games into the season. Tigers are also 11-5 ATS as a dog and 5-1 ATS last 6 as a home dog. Home team is 6-2-1 ATS last 9 in the series. Take Clemson!
|02-29-20||Pittsburgh v. NC State -8||73-77||Loss||-109||12 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on NC State -8 -109
I got no problem laying a big number here with NC State at home, as I see the Wolfpack having no problem beating Pitt by double-digits on Saturday. This is a must-win for NC State, who is firmly on the bubble, even with that recent win over Duke. Wolfpack followed up that upset of the Blue Devils with a 61-67 loss at home to FSU and a 79-85 loss at UNC.
With a road game at Duke on deck, one you know the Blue Devils are going to be ready for, this is one they have to have. Lucky for NC State they are catching Pitt at the right time. The Panthers ran out of gas in February and enter having lost 5 straight. Even more important is they have failed to cover in all 5, which really tells you have bad a shape they are in.
During the 5-game losing streak the Panthers are scoring just 56.2 ppg, well below their conference scoring average of 62.7. NC State only gives up 66.1 ppg at home. Not only will it be tough for Pitt to score, but they don't figure to be able to slow down the Wolfpack.
The Panthers rely heavily on turnovers defensively, as teams score at a high rate when they protect the ball. Wolfpack have a very experienced backcourt and one of the best at not turning it over. Take NC State!
|02-29-20||Texas v. Texas Tech UNDER 127||68-58||Win||100||3 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Texas/Texas Tech under 127 -110
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Big 12 matchup between rivals Texas Tech and Texas. These two teams played once already this season, earlier this month, and combined for just 119 points.
The Red Raiders were able to limit the Longhorns to just 57 points on 36% shooting on the road. It figures to be even harder for Texas to score in Lubbock, as the Longhorns only average 60.6 ppg on 40% shooting away from home.
Also the one big weakness for Tech's defense is fouling and sending their opponents to the free throw line. Texas is one of the worst in the country in getting to the foul line (only had 8 free throw attempts at home against the Red Raiders). Without those freebies it's really hard to score against this Texas Tech defense, which is only giving up 59.3 ppg aon 39% shooting at home.
UNDER is 6-0 in the Longhorns last 6 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games, 9-0 this season when revenging a loss and 8-0 last two seasons when revening a loss where they scored 60 or fewer points. Take the UNDER!
|02-28-20||Kings +4 v. Grizzlies||Top||104-101||Win||100||9 h 25 m||Show|
5* NBA - Western Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Kings +4 -109
I love the value here with Sacramento. The Kings have covered 4 straight out of the All-Star break and clearly are playing with a different sense of urgency than we had seen. I not only like them to cover, but I think they win here outright.
Memphis is in a bad spot right now. Just when everyone seemed to catch on with how good rookie Ja Morant was, the Grizzlies suffered two massive injuries to Brandon Clarke and Jaren Jackson Jr. Those two are far from big names, but without them Memphis has looked like a bottom feeder. Grizzlies have gone 0-4 SU and 0-4 ATS since the break and each of the last 3 came by double-digits.
I also think there's some value here due to Kings point guard De'Aaron Fox showing up as questionable on the injury report. As well as Sacramento playing on no rest after a game last night in OKC. I expect Fox to play. It felt like last night's injury was more made up than anything. Kings are 6-2 ATS this season when playing on no rest. Take Sacramento!
|02-28-20||Davidson v. Dayton UNDER 141||67-82||Loss||-110||8 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Davidson/Dayton under 141 -110
I like the value with the UNDER in Friday's A-10 showdown between Dayton and Davidson. These are the top two offensive teams in the A-10 and I think it has the books inflating the number on the total. We have seen them set the bar too high in Dayton games here of late, as the UNDER is 5-2 in the Flyers last 7 games.
Both of these teams can play some defense. Both rank in the top half of the conference in defensive efficiency. Given the spotlight of this game with it being arguably the best game on the board Friday and it being the only meeting between these two programs, I think both teams are going to bring it defensively.
UNDER is 14-5-3 in Davidson's last 22 games vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 7-2-2 in their last 11 as a dog. UNDER is also 15-5 in Dayton's last 20 at home after 2 straight games where they were called for 15 or less fouls. Take the UNDER!
|02-27-20||Jacksonville State +3 v. Tennessee State||Top||55-65||Loss||-110||11 h 8 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Ohio Valley PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jacksonville State +3 -110
I absolutely love the Gamecocks in this one. I look for Jacksonville State to go into the Gentry Center and lay it on Tennessee State. This is a prime spot to fade the Tigers. Tennessee State is struggling. They have lost two straight and four of five overall.
They also are dealing with a serious injury. Big man Jy'lan Washington had to miss their last game against Morehead State and he's a massive loss for this team. The offense is drastically worse without him and the defense also regresses when he's not on the floor. His status is up in the air and even if he plays he's not likely going to be at 100%.
Jacksonville State comes in off a 72-58 win and cover as a 9.5-point home favorite against Tenn-Martin. Gamecocks are 24-7 ATS last 31 road games when coming off a home win by 10 or more. Take Jacksonville State!
|02-27-20||Temple v. Wichita State OVER 136||69-72||Win||100||20 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Temple/Wichita State over 136 -110
The OVER is definitely worth a look here between the Owls and Shockers. These two played to a final score of just 118 earlier this season. The total for that game was 136.5. The fact that the books are setting the same mark in the rematch, tells you they think that first game was a bit of a fluke.
I completely agree. Wichita State scored just 53 points in an outright loss as a 4-point favorite. The Shockers shot terrible in that game. Largely because they were playing their second straight on the road with just 2 days of rest and the last game went to double-overtime. Not to mention a massive game on deck at home against Houston.
Temple is giving up 72.6 ppg in league play and 78.0 ppg over their last 5. OVER has cashed in 4 of their last 6 games and is 6-1 in the Owls last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Over is also 9-3 in the Shockers last 12 as a home favorite. Take the OVER 136!
|02-27-20||Eastern Kentucky v. Murray State UNDER 150||62-74||Win||100||20 h 22 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Eastern Kentucky/Murray State under 150 -110
The books have been off of their game with the totals for both of these teams. UNDER has cashed in 3 of the last 4 for Eastern Kentucky and 8 of the last 9 for Murray State. I just think because the Racers are such a good team with such a potent offense, the books inflate the over knowing that's where they public will be drawn.
What they overlook is how good this Murray State team is defensively. The Racers are tops in the Ohio Valley in defensive efficiency, ranking in the top two of both 3-point and 2-point percentage defense. They have allowed 67.1 ppg in conference games this season, but are allowing just 62.8 ppg in their last 5 and a mere 58.1 ppg at home. I just don't see this game getting into the 150's. Take the UNDER!
|02-27-20||Knicks +6.5 v. 76ers||106-115||Loss||-110||9 h 35 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Knicks +6½ -110
I really like the value here with New York as a decently priced road dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia has a great record at home, but things couldn't be going much worse at the moment. Already without Ben Simmons, the 76ers lost Joel Embiid in last night's 14-point loss at Cleveland.
He's almost a guarantee not to play tonight. Not having their two best players and playing on no rest, really negates any home court advantage Philadelphia may have had. I know the Knicks are bad, but if the 76ers aren't careful they could lose this game outright.
Knicks are 4-1-1 ATS last 6 on the road, 5-1 ATS last 6 vs a team with a winning record and a perfect 5-0 ATS last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take New York!
|02-26-20||Clippers -5.5 v. Suns||102-92||Win||100||11 h 34 m||Show|
3* NBA - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Clippers -5½ -110
I got no problem laying a short number on the road with the Clippers at Phoenix. LA snapped a 3-game skid with a 124-97 thrashing of the Grizzlies at home on Monday. Now it's time for them to make easy work of the Suns.
Phoenix has won their last two, including a big upset win at Utah on Monday as a 8.5-point dog, but are on just 1 day of rest after playing 3 road games in a 4 day stretch. Suns are also one of the few teams who have fewer wins at home than on the road. Phoenix is 11-18 at home compared to 13-16 on the road. Suns don't just lose straight up, they are 5-15-1 ATS last 21 at home.
Clippers are 27-13 ATS last 40 as road favorite and have covered 8 of the last 10 meetings in this series. Take Los Angeles!
|02-26-20||Duquesne v. St Bonaventure UNDER 136.5||81-77||Loss||-115||19 h 9 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total NO-BRAINER on Duquesne/St Bonaventure under 136½ -115
The UNDER is worth a look here between St Bonaventure and Duquesne. Most will be looking to take the OVER at this price, as these two teams combined for 163 points earlier this month. I just don't see them coming close to that output.
The two couldn't miss from deep. The Bonnies shot 10 of 21 (48%) and the Dukes were 14 of 34 (41%). Keep in mind that the meetings between these two teams last year both finished with fewer than 120 points.
UNDER is 22-12 in St. Bonaventure's last 34 with a total of 130 to 139.5 and 30-15 in Duquesne's last 45 on the road when playing a team that's won 60% to 80% of their games at least 15 games into the season. Under is also 11-4 in the Bonnies last 15 ats a home favorite and 8-3 in their last 11 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!
|02-26-20||Virginia v. Virginia Tech +3.5||Top||56-53||Win||100||10 h 37 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Virginia Tech +3½ -109
I love the value here with the Hokies as a home dog against in-state rival Virginia. These two did play at Virginia back in early January, which the Cavaliers won convincingly 65-39. You just can't overreact to that result. Last year Virginia won by 22 at home and then barely snuck out a 6-point win on the road.
The Cavaliers have won 4 straight and 7 of 8 overall, but they aren't dominating the opposition. Out of those 7 wins, 6 have come by 7-points or less with 4 decided by 3 or fewer points.
This is also not an ideal spot for Virginia. Hard for them to take the Hokies seriously given how lopsided the last meeting was, especially with a massive game against Duke on deck this Saturday.
Cavaliers are 1-6-1 ATS last 8 road games vs a team with a winning home record. Home team is also a dominant 10-4 ATS in the last 14 meetings. Take Virginia Tech!
|02-26-20||Rhode Island v. Fordham UNDER 123.5||76-75||Loss||-110||10 h 37 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Rhode Island/Fordham under 123½ -110
I just don't see these two teams combining for more than 120 points. It's going to be real tough here for Fordham to score. Rhode Island is outstanding at defending the 3-pointer and Fordham is dead last in the A-10 in 2-point shooting percentage.
In last year's lone meeting between these two teams, both shot under 35% from the field. Fordham comes in having failed to reach 60 points in a game in 8 straight. The Rams are averaging a mere 50.8 ppg in their last 5. They have also been locking down defensively, as they only give up 62.8 ppg in league play.
UNDER is 10-3 in Fordham's last 13 conference games, 12-3 in their last 15 at home and 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 55 or less in a conference game. Take the UNDER!
|02-25-20||Bucks v. Raptors OVER 230.5||108-97||Loss||-109||10 h 36 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Bucks/Raptors over 230½ -109
I really like the value here with the OVER in Tuesday's big Eastern Conference matchup that has the Raptors hosting the Bucks. I just don't think the number here is anywhere close to what it needs to be at.
These are two of the best offensive teams in the NBA. Milwaukee is 2nd in offensive efficiency and the Raptors are T-8th. Toronto is also a much better offensive team at home. Raptors average 113.3 ppg on the season, but that jumps to 117.2 ppg at home.
Both of these teams also love to run. Bucks are No. 1 in the NBA in pace of play and Raptors are 12th. Both really like to get out in run. Toronto is No. 1 in the NBA in fast break points and Bucks are No. 2. Not to mention both teams are averaging 14 made 3-pointers per game.
OVER is 8-1 in the Raptors last 9 at home off a home win and 14-5-1 in Bucks last 20 road games vs a team that has won more than 60% of their home games. Take the OVER!
|02-25-20||TCU +3.5 v. Iowa State||Top||59-65||Loss||-110||18 h 24 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on TCU +3½ -110
I love the value here with TCU as a small road dog against the Cyclones. Iowa State followed up a 20-point loss at Kansas last Monday with a 30-point loss at home to Texas Tech. Cyclones are now 1-3 SU and ATS since losing their best player and potential NBA lottery pick Tyrese Haliburton.
In the 3 games they haven't covered they have failed to do so by an average of 16.0 ppg. There's definitely reason to believe it could get ugly for ISU, even at home. Haliburton had a triple double (22 points, 12 rebounds, 10 assists) in a loss at TCU earlier this season.
TCU may only have a couple more wins in Big 12 play, but they have won 2 of their last 3, most recently knocking off a ranked West Virginia team at home in OT. Horned Frogs will be coming into this one with a lot of confidence.
Cyclones are 1-6 ATS last 7 games vs a team with a winning record. Take TCU!
|02-25-20||Akron v. Bowling Green +1.5||60-78||Win||100||18 h 23 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on Bowling Green +1½ -109
The Falcons are definitely worth a look here as a small home dog against the Zips. No way should Bowling Green by getting points at home in this one. Akron is simply overvalued having won 5 straight. The Falcons are 12-1 on their home floor and come in playing well with 11 wins in their last 13 games.
It just so happens one of those was a double-digit loss at Akron. Revenge will also be a key factor here in favor of Bowling Green. Last time out the Falcons didn't play their best, but still found a way to beat a good Ohio team 62-61. That win is another positive. Falcons are 13-4 ATS last 17 off a home conference win. Take Bowling Green!
|02-24-20||Knicks +14 v. Rockets||112-123||Win||100||9 h 51 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Knicks +14 -105
I like the value here with the Knicks as a massive road dog against Houston. The books have no choice here but to inflate the number on New York with how well the Rockets have looked out of the break, beating the Warriors by 30 on the road and then going to Utah and beating the Jazz by 10.
As good as Houston is playing, this is a big flat spot playing on just 1-day of rest after a pretty big game at Utah. Knicks are definitely not a team to get excited to play. Rockets have to feel like they can just go through the motions and win this game.
Knicks have been all over the place. They won 4 in a row only to lose their next 3. I think they show up in this one, as they are playing only their 2nd game back from the break and are on a full two days of rest.
Knicks are 8-1 ATS this season when playing a team that's won between 60% to 70% of their games and Houston is just 25-43 (37%) ATS last 68 times they have been a home favorite of 12.5 to 18 points. Take New York!
|02-24-20||West Virginia -5 v. Texas||Top||57-67||Loss||-109||9 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on West Virginia -5 -109
I love the value here with West Virginia laying a small number on the road against Texas. The Big 12 has 2 elite teams in Baylor and Kansas, two top tier squads in West Virginia and Texas Tech and then a bunch of mediocre to bad teams. I think the books have struggled to price teams like the Mountaineers high enough in road games.
It's going to take a near perfect game for Texas to win this contest. They haven't beat one of the top 4 teams yet. They are 6-8 in league play with their wins coming against Kansas State, Oklahoma St, TCU and ISU. The Horned Frogs, who are 6-8, are the only one of those 4 with a Big 12 mark better than 4-10.
Texas has lost at home to baylor, Texas Tech, Kansas and Oklahoma in Big 12 play. I know they have won two straight, but I don't think playing at home will be enough. West Virginia is just too good. Longhorns are 5-15 ATS last 20 home games off a win and 1-8 ATS last 9 times they have been off two or more wins. Take West Virginia!
|02-23-20||Pacers +6 v. Raptors||81-127||Loss||-115||8 h 32 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Pacers +6 -115
I like the value here with the Pacers catching a decent number on the road against the Raptors. Indiana went into the All-Star break with a 118-111 win at home against the Bucks and then came back with a 106-98 win and cover at New York. I look for the Pacers to stay hot in a game you know they had circled.
These two teams played twice in a 3-day stretch from Feb. 5-7. Toronto won both games. Indiana had their chances in both. They led most of the way in a gut-wrenching 118-119 loss at Toronto on Feb. 5 and two days later lost another close game at home 106-115. Needless to say the Pacers will have revenge on their mind in this one.
Oladipo might not go for Indiana, as he's listed as doubtful. That's a big loss on paper, but he's not played like the All-Star we remember in his limited time back from injury. Pacers were playing better without him. If anything his injury has added value here. Take Indiana!
|02-23-20||Canisius +3.5 v. Manhattan||57-56||Win||100||5 h 9 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Canisius +3½ -108
I really like this price with the Canisius as a small road dog against the Jaspers. No one is going to want to back the Golden Griffins right now, as they have lost 4 straight and 7 of 4 overall. Thing is, it's not going much better for Manhattan, who has lost 3 straight and failed to cover 7 of their last 10 overall.
This has been the money spot for the Griffins, who are 9-1 ATS last 10 times they have been on the road with a total in the 130's. Canisius is also 12-3-2 ATS last 17 as an underdog. Road team has gone 20-5-1 ATS last 26 games in this series with the underdog cashing in 4 of the last 5. Take Canisius!
|02-23-20||Temple -2.5 v. East Carolina||Top||63-67||Loss||-109||3 h 52 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - American Athletic PLAY OF THE WEEK on Temple -2½ -109
The Owls are definitely worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Pirates. Temple has been playing much better here of late. The Owls have won 4 of 6 and are fresh off a double-OT win at home against UConn.
I just think we are getting some value with Temple because of their losing mark of 6-7 in the AAC. It's really not asking much for the Owls to win here by a few points. ECU has lost 3 straight and 9 of their last 11 overall. They just played a brutal 3 game stretch in 8 days against Tulsa, Cincinnati and Memphis.
These two already played once this season and the Owls won by 12 at home. Temple has covered 5 straight games vs a losing straight up record. The favorites has also covered 7 of the last 10 meetings in the series. Take Temple!
|02-22-20||Northern Colorado v. Idaho State +9.5||85-72||Loss||-110||20 h 15 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Idaho State +9½ -110
I really like the value here with the Bengals as a near double-digit home dog against Northern Colorado. The Bears come in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. They are also sitting T-2nd in the Big Sky at 11-4, while Idaho State is tied for last in the league with a mark of just 3-12.
Key here is the Bengals really matchup well with Northern Colorado. Bears have struggled against teams who are strong offensive rebounding teams. Idaho State is No. 3 in that department in the Big Sky. Bengals also defend the 3-ball at a high rate and that's a big part of the Northern Colorado offensive attack. Idaho State also struggles with turnovers and Bears are 296th in forcing mistakes.
Also a bit of a letdown spot for Northern Colorado, who is a mere 9-22 ATS last 31 after playing 4 straight games as a favorite. Take Idaho State!
|02-22-20||Virginia Tech +17 v. Duke||Top||64-88||Loss||-110||20 h 42 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Virginia Tech +17 -110
I love the value here with Virginia Tech catching a massive number on the road against the Blue Devils. Hokies are coming off a 3OT game against Miami on Wednesday, but they will be able to recover enough in 3 days to give a max effort here against Duke.
I'm sure most will be counting on the Blue Devils to bounce back with a big game after not leading for a single second in a 22-point loss at NC State. While I have little doubt that Duke will win this game outright, I don't see them pulling away.
One thing that the Blue Devils love to do is get out and run off of turnovers. Those chances will be extremely limited in this one. Virginia Tech is 5th best in the country in offensive turnover rate. Duke is also just 1-4 ATS last 5 times they have been listed as a favorite. Take Virginia Tech!
|02-22-20||Nets v. Hornets UNDER 212.5||115-86||Win||100||10 h 57 m||Show|
4* NBA - Over/Under Total KNOCKOUT on Nets/Hornets under 212½ -110
I really like the UNDER in Saturday's NBA matchup between the Hornets and Nets. Charlotte plays at the slowest pace in the NBA and are in the bottom 5 in offensive efficiency. With the game on their home floor they should be able to play the game closer to their tempo.
As for the Nets, they are not only playing better without Kyrie Irving this year, they are a much better defensive team when Irving isn't on the floor. With the way their offense has struggled here of late, scoring 106 or fewer in 3 straight, this sets up to be a defensive battle that could see both teams fail to reach the century mark.
UNDER has cashed in 5 of the last 7 meetings between these two in Charlotte and is 6-2 in the Hornets last 8 vs a team with a losing record and 19-7 in Brooklyn's last 26 on the road vs a team with a losing home record. Take the UNDER!
|02-22-20||Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 139||59-65||Win||100||18 h 35 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Florida/Kentucky under 139 -114
I really like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's big SEC showdown between No. 10 Kentucky and Florida. The books just can't seem to get the number right on the total when these two face off. Since Mike White took over at Florida the UNDER has cashed in 6 of 8 games.
I don't see them eclipsing the mark in this one. Both of these teams are playing well on the defensive side of the ball. Florida just held Arkansas to 59 in their last game and are giving up just 63.5 ppg over their last 4. Kentucky's opponents are shooting a mere 38% against them in SEC play and the Wildcats are allowing just 62.8 ppg at home on the season.
Kentucky has won 5 straight and when they are on a run like this their games tend to go UNDER. In fact, UNDER is 10-1 in their last 11 when playing on a winning streak of 5 or more. UNDER is also 10-2 in Gators last 12 on the road with a total of 130 to 139.5. Take the UNDER!
|02-22-20||Georgia -2.5 v. Vanderbilt||80-78||Loss||-109||17 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Georgia -2½ -109
Easy play here on the Bulldogs as a small road favorite against the Commodores. Georgia snapped their recent skid in style, knocking off Auburn 65-55 Wednesday. I look for the Bulldogs to carry that momentum into this one against a struggling Vanderbilt team.
Commodores suffered their 4th straight loss and fell to 1-12 in SEC play with a heartbreaking 61-65 loss at Tennessee. Vanderbilt just can't score at a high enough rate to be taken seriously. They have shot 40% or worse from the field in 4 straight and 11 of 12 games overall. It doesn't matter if you are home or away. You aren't going to win often if you can't shoot at least 40% from the field.
Commodores are a mere 1-8 ATS at home off a conference road loss, 3-12 ATS last 15 conference home games overall and 0-7 ATS last 7 as a home dog of 6 points or less. Take Georgia!
|02-22-20||SMU +1.5 v. Tulsa||57-79||Loss||-108||14 h 14 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Sharp Money HEAVY HITTER on SMU +1½ -108
The Mustangs are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Golden Hurricane. This is a prime bounce back spot for SMU, coming off an ugly loss at Tulane, who even with the win is still dead last in the AAC at 3-11.
Note it wasn't a huge surprise to see them come out flat in that game, as they were only a few days removed from a dramatic 73-72 overtime win at home against Houston. The same Cougars team that just annihilated Tulsa 76-43 on Wednesday.
I just don't see the Golden Hurricane being able to keep pace with this juggernaut of an offense that SMU sends out. Especially when the Mustangs figure to clean up on the offensive glass when they do miss. Mustangs are 20th in offensive rebounding. Tulsa is 210 in defensive rebounding.
Mustangs are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as a dog, while Golden Hurricane are 7-15 ATS last 22 as a home favorite. Road team has also gone a staggering 21-5-1 ATS in the last 27 meetings. Take SMU!
|02-22-20||Virginia v. Pittsburgh UNDER 112||59-56||Loss||-115||11 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Virginia/Pittsburgh under 112 -115
The UNDER is worth a look here in Saturday's ACC matchup that has Pitt hosting Virginia. It's no secret that the Cavaliers are a strong defensive team. The key here is the matchup. Virginia does an outstanding job of forcing team to beat them with jump shots. They just don't give you many easy looks at the rim.
Shooting is not a strength of the Panthers, especially from deep. Pitt ranks a miserable 329th in the country in 3-point percentage. Last year the Panthers could only muster 49 points in a loss at Virginia. The previous year they only scored 37 at home. I think getting to 50 in this one will be a struggle.
Virginia's offense is nothing to write home about either and the Cavaliers only average 56.2 ppg away from home this season and are scoring just 58.9 ppg in ACC play.
UNDER is 17-5 in Pitt's last 22 as a home dog and 8-1 in their last 9 at home off a road loss by 10 or more. Take the UNDER!
|02-22-20||Kansas v. Baylor UNDER 129.5||64-61||Win||100||11 h 8 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Early Bird Total ENFORCER on Kansas/Baylor under 129½ -110
I really like the UNDER in Saturday's massive Big 12 matchup between No. 3 Kansas and No. 1 Baylor. Not only is this a matchup of two Top 5 teams, but for Kansas they have to win to have any shot at the Big 12 title, as they already lost at home to the Bears earlier this season. This could also play a big part in a No. 1 seed for the Big Dance.
Either way, I'm confident both teams are going to show up for this one with everything they got. I With how strong these two are defensively, I just don't see them eclipsing 130 points. Baylor is No. 3 in the country in defensive efficiency and KU is No. 2. These two only combined for 122 in their first meeting this season.
UNDER is 15-5 in Kansas' last 20 vs a team with a winning record and 8-2 in their last 10 when facing a top tier team that's outscoring opponents by 8+ points/game. UNDER is also 8-0 in Jayhawks last 8 on the road when they come in having won 8 of their last 10. Take the UNDER!
|02-21-20||VCU v. St. Louis UNDER 133.5||62-80||Loss||-115||20 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on VCU/St. Louis under 133½ -115
The UNDER is definitely worth a look in Friday's A-10 matchup that has the Billikens hosting VCU. I think we are going to see both of these teams come out with a big effort here to try and save their season. Both teams have struggled recently and have just 5-games left before the A-10 Tournament. It might not be enough, but 5 straight could get them in the conversation for the Big Dance.
Either way, I think this is going to be a low scoring game. VCU's offense has completely abandoned them here of late. It started with a mere 67 points against a bad George Mason defense, then they managed just 59 at Richmond and 61 at home against Dayton. Hard to see them snapping out of this funk on the road, against a St Louis team that needs their defense to play well to make up for their inefficiencies on offense.
UNDER has cashed in 12 of the last 16 home games for St Louis if they are off a game they didn't cover. It's also 11-4 in their last 15 as an underdog and 8-2 in their last 10 vs a team with a winning record. Take the UNDER!
|02-21-20||Wisc-Milwaukee v. Oakland -3.5||Top||68-75||Win||100||20 h 36 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Horizon League PLAY OF THE MONTH on Oakland -3½ -109
I really like the value here with the Grizzlies laying a short number at home against Milwaukee. Oakland comes into this game ride a wave of momentum off back-to-back wins. The first time since early November that they strung two together two wins in a row.
There strong play really goes back to late January, which was about the same time that transfer Rashad Williams started to get comfortable with his new team. Williams didn't make his debut until Jan. 16. After averaging just 12 ppg in his first 3 games, Williams has exploded for 25.3 ppg in his last 6. He's only played 9 games and made 39 shots from behind the 3-point line. That's second most on the team, just 6 behind the leader.
I just don't think people realize how different a team Oakland is. They just look at their overall numbers and see a mediocre team that is 7-9 in a small conference like the Horizon. I just think with how they are playing and Milwaukee off a crushing 4-point loss at home to rival Green Bay, this price is way to low on the Grizzlies. Take Oakland!
|02-21-20||Mavs v. Magic UNDER 220.5||122-106||Loss||-110||11 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Mavs/Magic under 220½ -110
I like the value here with the UNDER between the Magic and Mavericks. Dallas has been better offensively than expected this year and it's why the OVER is 35-20 in their 55 games to this point. I just think the books have made the adjustments and now it's time to start looking the other way.
Getting a game to go over 220 with Orlando is not an easy task. I get they put up 116 and 135 points in their last two games before the break, but that was against the Pistons and Hawks. This is still the same team that had a stretch of 4 games where they didn't crack 100. Part of that is their lack of offensive playmakers, but even more so is their desire to play at a slow pace (3rd slowest).
Keep in mind these two teams played back in November and only combined for 213 points and that was with the Magic shooting 49% from the field (shoot 43.4% on the season).
Mavs rely on the 3-pointer (average 15 made 3's/game). UNDER is 8-1 in Orlando's last 9 home games vs a team who shoots 36% or better from deep. It's also 13-2 in Magic's last 15 at home in the 2nd half of the season vs strong teams (outscoring opponents by 3+ ppg). Take the UNDER!
|02-20-20||Santa Clara v. BYU UNDER 153.5||75-85||Loss||-110||13 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night Total NO-BRAINER on Santa Clara/BYU under 153½ -110
I really like the value with the UNDER in tonight's WCC action that has Santa Clara visiting Provo to take on the Cougars. There's going to be some scoring in this one, but nothing like what the number is suggesting.
Santa Clara is a team that is prone to foul trouble. They are 9th out of 10 in the WCC in defensive foul rate. Good news for them is BYU is the worst in the conference at getting to the free throw line and it's not close. When the Broncos have faced similar teams who struggle to get to the line, the games have been much lower scoring than anticipated. UNDER is 8-1 in Santa Clara's last 9 vs a team that's attempting 18 or fewer free throws a game at least 15+ games into the season.
Santa Clara also doesn't figure to score a ton in this one. The Broncos only average 67.5 ppg on the road, where they are shooting a miserable 40% from the field. In their last two games they failed to score more than 61 points. Take the UNDER!
|02-20-20||Michigan State v. Nebraska OVER 151||Top||86-65||Push||0||13 h 57 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten Total PLAY OF THE MONTH on Michigan State/Nebraska over 151 -110
This might seem like a big total for what figures to be a lopsided matchup between the Cornhuskers and Spartans. I don't think it's high enough. I look for these two to fly past the number.
I don't care how bad Michigan State is playing coming into this game, they aren't going to lose this game because they can't score. Nebraska just gave up 81 on their home floor to Wisconsin, who likes to play at a snails pace. In their last 5 games the Cornhuskers are giving up 80.8 ppg. A lot of that is bad defense, but it's part of the pace they like to play at, as they lead the Big Ten in tempo.
I know Nebraska's offense isn't great and Michigan State's defense is one of the top units in the Big Ten. I just don't see the Spartans being 100% locked in defensively with how easy it will be for them to score and just how much more talented they are. These two played last March to a combined score of 167 in a 91-76 Spartans win. I could see something similar here. Take the OVER!
|02-20-20||Hornets v. Bulls UNDER 211.5||103-93||Win||100||12 h 32 m||Show|
3* NBA - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Hornets/Bulls under 211½ -110
I just look for the Bulls and Hornets to have a difficult time scoring enough to eclipse the mark set by the books. These two of the worst offensive teams in the league in terms of efficiency. In fact, both are tied for the 26th worst mark in offensive efficiency for the season.
Factor in the slow tempo that Charlotte likes to play at (ranks dead last in pace) and the laundry list of injuries that the Bulls are dealing with right now and it's just hard to see either offense doing a lot in this one. These two did just play a couple months ago (12/13) and that game finished with a mere 156 points, as Charlotte won 83-73. Take the UNDER!
|02-20-20||Ohio State v. Iowa OVER 143||76-85||Win||100||11 h 26 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Ohio State/Iowa over 143 -105
I like the value with the OVER between Ohio State and Iowa. The Hawkeyes are coming off an extremely low-scoring game by their standards, as they won 58-55 at Minnesota on Sunday. The previous low for points scored by Iowa on the season was 67 in a win over Maryland.
As for the defense allowing 55, that's just not who the Hawkeyes are. Iowa is giving up 75 ppg in Big Ten play. I just think with the way the Hawks like to push the tempo and the likelihood that they shoot well at home, this thing is going to approach 150 points.
Ohio State should definitely score. Buckeyes are an excellent 3-point shooting team (No. 1 Big Ten) and Iowa gives up a ton of good looks from deep. The Hawks also offer little resistance inside. OVER is 4-1 in Iowa's last 5 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 14-6 in Buckeyes last 20 vs a team with a winning record. Take the OVER!
|02-19-20||Syracuse v. Louisville OVER 140||Top||66-90||Win||100||14 h 51 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - ACC Total PLAY OF THE MONTH on Syracuse/Louisville over 140 -118
I absolutely love the OVER in Wednesday's ACC matchup between Syracuse and Louisville. These are two of the top teams in the conference in offensive efficiency. Duke leads the ACC with a 112.8 offensive efficiency rating. Louisville is No. 2 at 108.8 and Syracuse is No. 3 at 106.8. Notre Dame and FSU are the only other teams with a rating over 99.7.
You have to be the Cardinals are going to put up a bunch of points in this one. Louisville is averaging 77.2 ppg on 48% shooting from the field and 40% from deep at home this season. Cardinals are also Top 15 in the country in 3-point shooting pct. They should get a lot of good looks against Syracuse's 2-3 zone. Teams that have played zone against Louisville have definitely paid the price this year.
Another thing is the Orange have not played well defensively away from home. It's why we have seen the OVER go a perfect 7-0 in their last 7 road games. Most recently losing at FSU 77-80.
Key here is Syracuse can score. They have proven that. They are scoring 75.2 ppg on the road this year and are averaging 76.8 ppg in their last 5, despite only shooting 40.6% from the field. Take the OVER!
|02-19-20||Michigan v. Rutgers -1||60-52||Loss||-115||14 h 51 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rutgers -1 -115
Rutgers is definitely worth a look at basically a pick'em on their home floor. How do you know back the Scarlet Knights at this price when they are 17-0 at home this season. Rutgers has lost 3 of their last 5 and needed OT to win at home over Northwestern, but are fresh off a big time 72-57 home win over Illinois.
Those that follow the Big Ten know that the Scarlet Knights are the real deal, but I don't think that's a perception shared across the country. Michigan on the other hand is a name brand and are making headlines with their recent play. Wolverines come in having won 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall.
Michigan is better with Livers back in the mix, but I'm not sold on them being good enough to win on the road against a team like Rutgers. The Wolverines only true road wins all season have come against bottom feeders Nebraska and Northwestern. You take away those 3 wins in 3 days at Atlantis and they are just 2-5 away from home.
Rutgers also playing with revenge here from a close 6-point loss to Michigan in the first meeting. Scarlet Knights should feed off an electric home crowd. Take Rutgers!
|02-19-20||Wofford v. NC-Greensboro OVER 130.5||79-83||Win||100||14 h 48 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Wofford/NC-Greensboro over 130½ -114
I like the value here with the OVER at this low number. These two teams played once already this year and it ended up Wofford outscoring Greensboro 98-92 in double-overtime. The two extra periods didn't matter on the total. The game closed at a total of 128.5. It was 78-78 at the end of regulation.
I see no reason not to expect another high-scoring game in the rematch. These two teams both love to shoot 3-pointers. They hoisted up a combined 76 attempts in the first meeting. Both teams making 14. They both had at least 18 made free throws. I think both teams can get into a rhythm offensively when you have to similar styles like this. Take the OVER 130.5!
|02-18-20||Kentucky v. LSU OVER 145||Top||79-76||Win||100||15 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - SEC Total PLAY OF THE YEAR on Kentucky/LSU over 145 -110
I absolutely love the OVER in tonight's late night SEC matchup between LSU and Kentucky. The Tigers have consistently been involved in high-scoring games. Each of their last 4 games have seen a combined score of 160 or more. In their last 9 conference games, only one has finished with fewer than 156 and that was 136 against Ole Miss, who is one of the worst offenses in the SEC and they like to play slow.
Kentucky can definitely score. While they did just play in a low-scoring game on Saturday, which saw 129 total points, that was against Ole Miss. Prior to that they had scored 77 or more in 3 straight games. Wildcats are going to do some damage here. LSU is 12th out of 14 SEC teams in both defensive efficiency and effective field goal defense. They are also 12th in forced turnovers at just 14.9%.
Kentucky has a solid defense, but they are playing on the road on a just two days of rest, so they aren't going to have the freshest of legs here. I also just don't think there's any slowing down the Tigers at the Maravich Assembly Center.
OVER is 8-1 in LSU's last 9 at home vs teams holding opponents to 42% or worse at least 15 games into the season. OVER is also 10-2 in the Tigers last 12 conference games overall. OVER is also 8-1 in Kentucky's last 9 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and 6-2 in their last 8 on the road. Take the OVER!
|02-18-20||Northwestern v. Maryland UNDER 133.5||67-76||Loss||-109||11 h 40 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Northwestern/Maryland under 133½ -109
The UNDER is definitely worth a look in Tuesday's Big 10 matchup that has 1st place Maryland hosting last place Northwestern. Terps have won 8 straight to improve to 11-3 (only other team in Big 10 with fewer than 6 losses is Penn St.), while Wildcats have lost 9 in a row and are sitting at 1-13 in league play.
These two first met this season on Jan. 21. Northwestern jumped out to a 40-26 1st half lead, but ended up losing 77-66. While that game ended with 143 points, I'm confident the rematch will be a lot lower scoring.
Northwestern shot 50% from the field and 44% from deep in that game at home against the Terps. Chances of that repeating are slim. Wildcats are shooting just 40.8% overall in conference play. They ranked 13th in the conference in 2-point shooting.
I also don't see Maryland's offense going off in this one. This is big letdown spot for the Terps off that monster road win at Michigan State on Saturday. I see Maryland going thru the motions and could see this thing struggling to get to 125. Take the UNDER!
|02-18-20||Arkansas v. Florida -6||Top||59-73||Win||100||22 h 11 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Florida -6 -110
I got no problem laying the points with Florida at home against the Razorbacks. The Gators are rolling right now. They have won 4 of their last 5 and are off two dominating performances in a 78-61 road win at Texas A&M and 84-66 win at home over Vanderbilt. Florida is very quietly sitting at 8-4 in the SEC (only 2 games out of 1st).
While the Gators are surging, Arkansas is on a free fall with 4 straight losses. You really have to wonder about the psyche of this Razorbacks team, as two of the 4 losses came in OT and the other was a 1-point loss at home to Mississippi State.
I just think it's going to be hard to right the ship on the road for Arkansas. Razorbacks are really feeling the injury to guard Isaiah Joe, as they are not a deep team. PLaying on the road with just 2 days rest is a lot harder for this team than it is for others.
Arkansas is also just 11-25 ATS last 36 on the road after 2 or more consecutive conference losses and 2-9 ATS last 11 after allowing 75+ points in 2 straight games. Favorite has also covered 6 of the last 7 in the series. Take Florida!
|02-17-20||Xavier v. St. John's +2||Top||77-74||Loss||-109||7 h 41 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big East PLAY OF THE MONTH on St. John's +2 -109
I really like the value here with the Red Storm as a home dog against the Musketeers. St John's just won at home Wednesday against Providence 80-69 as a 5.5-point dog. The Red Storm will carry over that momentum into this one.
Xavier on the other hand just had their 3-game winning streak snapped in a 61-66 loss at Butler on Wednesday. This team has had trouble bouncing from a loss, as they have multiple losing streaks in Big East play.
St John's is also going to be plenty motivated to get revenge from a mere 8-point loss at Xavier back in early January. Forcing turnovers is a big part of the Red Storm path to success and that's a weakness of the Musketeers. Xavier turned it over 19 times in the first meeting and that was at home. Those mistakes could be compounded here on the road and if St. John's gets that momentum early they should win here no problem.
Xavier is just 2-5-1 ATS last 8 as a favorite and 1-5 ATS laying points in their last 6 as a road favorite. Red Storm are 6-2 ATS last 8 as a home dog. Take St. John's!
|02-16-20||Memphis v. Connecticut -4||61-64||Loss||-105||6 h 38 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Connecticut -4 -105
I like the value here with the Huskies laying a shot number at home against Memphis. UConn is just 4-7 in the AAC, but if you watch this team, especially here of late, you know that they are much better than their record. Huskies have lost 11 games this season, 9 of those by single-digits, including 3 overtime losses.
I think we are getting a steal here with them at this price. This is an absolutely brutal spot for Memphis, who lost a game they shouldn't have in Thursday's 86-92 overtime loss at Cincinnati. Not easy playing extra time on the road and then having just 2 days off before going back on the road against a quality opponent.
Memphis plays good defense and are solid on the boards, but that's not a concern here. UConn is 8-1 ATS last 9 at home vs good defensive teams that are holding opponents to 42% or less at least 15 games into the season and 9-2 ATS last 11 at home vs teams who are outrebounding teams by 4+ boards/game. Huskies are also 21-10 ATS last 31 at home and 9-2 ATS last 11 when they have won 2 of their last 3. Take Connecticut!
|02-16-20||Iowa v. Minnesota -4.5||Top||58-55||Loss||-110||4 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Big Ten GAME OF THE MONTH on Minnesota -4½ -110
Easy play here on the Gophers as a relatively small home favorite against the Hawkeyes. Iowa has had their struggles on the road this season. Hawkeyes are 8-6 in Big Ten play and all 6 of those losses have come on the road. Iowa's only road win came against league worst Northwestern.
Don't be fooled by Iowa having already beat Minnesota 72-52 at home. At the same time, Minnesota is also a much different team at home compared to on the road. Gophers are 10-3 at home compared to 2-8 on the road.
The big key here besides the home/away splits is the health of Iowa. Hawkeyes are unlikely to have standout freshman guard CJ Fredrick, who rolled his ankle in their 77-89 loss at Indiana on Thursday.
Note that while Iowa is playing on a mere 2 days of rest here, Minnesota has been off since last Saturday. That extra time to prepare should only add to the edge here for the Gophers. Take Minnesota!
|02-15-20||Utah State -5 v. Fresno State||71-59||Win||100||15 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Late Night ATS HEAVY HITTER on Utah State -5 -109
The Aggies are worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Bulldogs. This is just too good a price to pass up with Utah State given how well they are playing right now. The Aggies come in having won 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. They got a realistic shot here of finishing No. 2 in the MWC behind San Diego State.
As for Fresno State, they avoided a 3rd straight loss with a 84-78 OT win at San Jose State, but that's not exactly a positive needing OT to beat a team like that. This has just not been a good year for the Bulldogs, who have a losing record at 5-6 at home. Even more important is their awful 2-7-1 ATS record in home lined games.
One thing Fresno State does well is generate offensive rebounds and they have to with how sloppy they are with the ball and their lack of shooting. Problem is the Aggies are a great defensive rebounding team. I just don't see the Bulldogs keeping this close. Take Utah State!
|02-15-20||Virginia v. North Carolina UNDER 118.5||64-62||Loss||-110||13 h 37 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Over/Under Total ANNIHILATOR on Virginia/North Carolina under 118½ -110
This game is not going to be one to watch if you like scoring. With the Cavaliers inability to score on a consistent basis and the Tar Heels lack of outside shooting, I wouldn't be surprised if these two failed to reach 100 points.
Virginia plays as slow as any team and they figure to be on the slower side of things after a grueling OT win against Notre Dame on Tuesday. As for the Tar Heels, they had that great game against Duke last Saturday, but then managed just 57 points on the road against Wake Forest next time out. Even with the home crowd to help, I don't see UNC's offense being able to generate a lot here.
UNDER is also 38-18-1 in Virginia's last 57 road games and 37-15 in their last 52 as an underdog. UNDER is 6-1 in the Tar Heels last 7 vs a team with a winning straight up record and 11-4-1 in their last 16 as a favorite. Take the UNDER!
|02-15-20||Cornell v. Dartmouth UNDER 134.5||53-75||Win||100||10 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Over/Under Total DESTROYER on Cornell/Dartmouth under 134½ -109
I like the value here with the UNDER in Saturday's Ivy League action that has Dartmouth hosting Cornell. These are two of the slower paced Ivy teams and both figure to be on the slow end of things in this one. The Big Red were on the road at Harvard last night and could not stop the Crimson in a 63-85 loss. Big Green were also in action last night. They pulled out a grueling 65-63 win at home against Columbia.
Last two times Dartmouth has played in the second game of a back-to-back the offense has been a now show. Last Saturday they managed just 57 points at Yale and the Saturday before a mere 46 at Penn. I could see both teams failing to reach 60 in this one.
UNDER is 8-3 in the Big Green's last 11 off a win and 5-1 in their last 6 as home favorite. UNDER is also 4-0 in Cornell's last 4 off a SU loss by more than 20 and 8-2 in their last 10 on Saturday. Take the UNDER!
|02-15-20||Tennessee +4.5 v. South Carolina||61-63||Win||100||17 h 59 m||Show|
3* NCAAB Prime Time ATS Line MISTAKE on Tennessee +4½ -115
I think a lot of people will have a hard time backing Tennessee on the road at this price, especially with how well South Carolina has been playing. Frank Martin's Gamecocks just went on the road and destroyed Georgia 75-59, improving to 5-1 over their last 6 games.
One of the big reasons I think we are seeing the number a little low, is this has become a difficult spot for South Carolina. Just as everything was going well for the Gamecocks, news of NCAA allegations was announced Thursday. The slightest of distractions can derail a team and I just think they struggle to play well here.
Tennessee has also been playing well here of late and recently won as a road dog at Alabama. Last time out they absolutely destroyed Arkansas 82-61. Vols are 20-8-1 ATS last 29 off a win by more than 20 points and 8-1 ATS last 9 on the road after a win by 20 or more. Take Tennessee!
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