|Date||Match Up||Rating||Score||Result||Profit||Lead Time||Analysis|
|11-17-19||Wake Forest v. Charlotte +4||65-67||Win||100||7 h 20 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Charlotte +4 -110
I like the 49ers to cover the small number at home against the Demon Deacons. Everyone keeps waiting for Danny Manning to work his magic in Winston-Salem, but it's just not happening. Wake has won just 11-games each of the last two years, both times going a mere 4-14 in ACC play.
They would of had a chance to be decent had freshmen Jaylen Hoard stuck around, but he left early for the NBA. I get Charlotte isn't the best program, but we saw the Demon Deacons already barely beat Columbia at home 65-63.
Wake did win last time out against UNC-Asheville, but are just 5-13 ATS last 18 off a SU win and 2-5-1 ATS last 8 on the road. Take Charlotte!
|11-17-19||76ers v. Cavs +7||Top||114-95||Loss||-105||10 h 30 m||Show|
5* NBA - Heavy Hitter PLAY OF THE MONTH on Cavs +7 -105
Love the value here with the Cavs as a big home dog against the 76ers. Philadelphia is just 2-5 SU in their last 7 and have failed to cover 4 straight. 76ers are not a good road team and are playing their 3rd straight away from home.
Cavs might be one of the least talented teams in the league, but they are playing hard under first year head coach John Beilein. This team has been routinely undervalued by the books and that's evident by Cleveland's 6-3-2 ATS record.
76ers are 1-9 ATS last 10 on the road against a bad team that's won 25% to 40% of their games. Cavs are 5-1-1 ATS last 7 off a double-digit loss at home and 5-1 ATS last 6 on 2 days of rest. Take Cleveland!
|11-17-19||UCF v. Illinois State -1.5||67-65||Loss||-110||3 h 29 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Illinois State -1½ -110
I got no problem laying the short number at home with the RedBirds in Sunday's game against UCF. I just think the Knights are in some trouble this season. UCF had a dream season last year, winning 24-games and coming up just short of upsetting Duke and advancing to the Sweet 16.
The Knights lost every key player from that team and it's going to be a struggle for them to come anywhere close to what they were. They just lost at home by 9 to Miami as a 3-point dog and I look for them to struggle in their first true road game of the season.
Redbirds have thrived in this spot, going 26-13 ATS in their last 39 as a home favorite of 3-points or less. Take Illinois State!
|11-17-19||Jaguars +3 v. Colts||Top||13-33||Loss||-120||53 h 37 m||Show|
5* NFL - AFC South PLAY OF THE MONTH on Jaguars +3 -120
Sure the Colts were without starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett in last week's ugly loss to the Dolphins, but they were still a 10-point favorite and lost outright. Even with Brissett back I see Indy struggling here against a rested and highly motivated Jaguars team coming off their bye.
Jacksonville got embarrassed by the Texans in their last game and with that came the end of Minshew mania. Lucky for the Jags is they get back their starting QB in Nick Foles and I think he gives this team a big boost as they try to make a push for the playoffs.
Another thing that I think gets overlooked with Indy's recent struggles is they haven't had TY Hilton. Colts are 5-1 in games Hilton plays with the only loss coming in OT. They are 0-3 without him and a big reason for that is defenses can creep up a little more and focus on not letting Indy get the running game going.
Colts are just 9-21 ATS last 30 at home off a loss by 6 or less and 0-6-1 ATS last 7 vs a team with a losing record. Jags have gone 3-0-1 last 4 years off their bye and are 5-1 ATS last 6 vs another team from the AFC. Take Jacksonville!
|11-17-19||Marquette v. Wisconsin -1||61-77||Win||100||2 h 29 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird ATS DESTROYER on Wisconsin -1 -105
The Badgers are definitely worth a look here at basically a pick'em at home against the Golden Eagles. Just feel like like Marquette is getting a little too much love here off a 10-point home win against Purdue.
Golden Eagles had a chance to be special this year until Sam and Joey Hauser decided to transfer. Now it's just the Markus Howard show and while he's great, it's hard to be a one-man show and win on the road against a team like Wisconsin that really gets after you defensively. You can bet the Badgers are going to really focus on Howard and make the other guys beat them.
Wisconsin comes in off a 83-63 blowout win at home over McNeese State and are 32-16 ATS last 48 at home off a home win by 20 or more points. Marquette on the other hand is just 1-6 ATS last 7 vs a team with a winning record. Take Wisconsin!
|11-16-19||Oklahoma -10 v. Baylor||Top||34-31||Loss||-110||53 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Oklahoma/Baylor Big 12 PLAY OF THE YEAR on Oklahoma -10 -110
There's plenty of people talking about how Baylor deserves to be ranked higher than No. 12 with their perfect record, but I'm with the playoff committee. I just don't think the Bears are anywhere close to as good as their record and I think it could get ugly on Saturday in Waco.
Oklahoma is hands down the most talented team in the Big 12. They had a slip up at Kansas State, but I think more of that was them just not giving the Wildcats the respect they deserve. They won't make that mistake against the Bears.
The biggest thing for more me is I don't think Baylor's defense can contain Jalen Hurts and this high-powered Oklahoma offense. That's a big problem, as I don't think the Bears have the goods offensively to go keep this close if the Sooners put 30+ on the board.
Bears are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 home games when listed as an underdog of 7.5 to 14 points. Oklahoma has failed to cover their last two in large part because of turnovers. They posted a -2 turnover margin in both ATS losses to K-State and Iowa State. Sooners are 7-0 ATS last 7 times they have posted back-to-back games with a turnover margin of -2 or worse. Take Oklahoma!
|11-16-19||St Bonaventure v. Rutgers -7.5||80-74||Loss||-105||19 h 56 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Saturday Night CASH COW on Rutgers -7½ -105
The Scarlet Knights have started out 3-0 and I look for them to have no problem covering the number in Saturday's neutral site showdown with St. Bonaventure. Rutgers is a program on the rise and many fans are calling for their first winning season in over a decade.
The Bonnies are off to a 0-3 start having lost at home to Ohio and Vermont and most recently losing at Siena as a 1-point favorite. Offense has been a big problem for St. Bonaventure. They are averaging just 59.0 ppg and have yet to shoot better than 38% from the field in any game.
Now they must face a Rutgers defense that is only giving up 55.7 ppg, holding teams almost 15 points under their season average. St Bonaventure is 1-9 ATS last 10 games when facing a team that's holding teams under 42% shooting and the Scarlet Knights are 13-3 ATS last 16 away from home against teams who are averaging 64 or fewer points/game. Take Rutgers!
|11-16-19||Bucks -6.5 v. Pacers||102-83||Win||100||8 h 30 m||Show|
3* NBA - Bucks/Pacers ATS WINNER on Bucks -6½ -110
I like Milwaukee to cash in a win and cover at Indiana on Saturday. I just feel like we are getting a decent price here with the Bucks coming in off 4 straight non-covers. Especially given that Milwaukee will be playing just their second game in 6 days, while the Pacers are in the second game of a back-to-back set after playing last night at Houston.
Another thing to note with the Pacers is that while they are 7-2 in their last 9 games, a lot of those wins came against bad teams. In fact, Indiana has played the softest schedule of any team in the NBA so far.
Bucks are 30-16 ATS last 46 as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points and a dominant 17-4 ATS last 21 vs a division opponent with an average margin of victory of 13.6 ppg. Take Milwaukee!
|11-16-19||LSU v. Ole Miss +21.5||58-37||Win||100||35 h 41 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Public Money ATS DESTROYER on Ole Miss +21½ -105
While I don't think Ole Miss is going to pull off the massive upset against No. LSU, I do think there's a ton of value with the Rebels getting more than three touchdowns at home, especially with this being a prime time night game.
This is Ole Miss's Super Bowl, while LSU is in about as big a letdown spot as they could be in off that upset win over Alabama last week. The Tigers have just not responded well off a big road win, as they are just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 off an upset win as a road dog. They are also just 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record.
Ole Miss is also a team that's been getting disrespected by the books consistently this year, especially in SEC play. Rebels are 5-1 ATS in their 6 conference games this season. Take Ole Miss!
|11-16-19||Louisiana Tech +10 v. Creighton||Top||72-82||Push||0||17 h 28 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Louisiana Tech +10 -105
This is just too many points for Louisiana Tech to be catching on the road against the Blue Jays. The Bulldogs have started out 2-0 with two blowout wins. They won at Texas A&M CC 82-49 as a mere 8-point favorite and followed that up with a 98-52 victory against Wiley College. Note that Texas A&M CC nearly went on the road an upset Vanderbilt, losing by a final score of 71-66.
As for Creighton, they are coming off a 79-69 loss at Michigan, where they let the Wolverines shoot 57% from the field and now face a LA Tech team that has hit 50% from the field in each of their first two games. I just don't see the Blue Jays being able to pull away and winning by double-digit. In fact, I give the Bulldogs a legit shot at winning this game outright. Take Louisiana Tech!
|11-16-19||Minnesota v. Iowa -3||19-23||Win||100||21 h 47 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Iowa/Minn Big Ten PLAY OF THE WEEK on Iowa -3 -103
One of the more difficult things to do in college football is back bounce from a big win at home on the road against a top tier team. That's the spot we find the Gophers this Saturday, as they make the difficult trip down to Iowa City for a late afternoon kickoff at Kinnick.
Those that bet against Minnesota last week are all over the Gophers as a slim 3-point dog against Iowa, but I feel the smart money is on the home team. Iowa is a few plays away from being 9-0 themselves. The Hawkeyes 3 losses have all come down to the wire, as they lost 10-3 at Michigan, 17-12 at home to Penn State and 24-22 at Wisconsin this past Saturday. All 3 of those teams are currently ranked in the Top 15 of CFP Rankings.
I was actually impressed with how well Iowa played in Madison. Even though they gave up 300 on the ground to the Badgers, they still held Wisconsin to just 24 points. Iowa is giving up just 11.7 ppg and 289 ypg. I really think that defense is going to be the difference on Saturday. Hawkeyes are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 when facing a team that averages 37 or more points/game.
You also have to take into account this is by far the toughest road game of the season for Minnesota, who's played 6 of their first 9 at home and their 3 road games have been against Fresno, Purdue and Rutgers. They crushed Rutgers, but only won by 3 at Fresno and by 7 at Purdue. Take Iowa!
|11-16-19||Eastern Michigan +9 v. North Texas||56-51||Win||100||5 h 21 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - E Michigan/N Texas ATS WINNER on Eastern Michigan +9 -110
The Eagles are worth a look as a near double-digit dog on the road against the Mean Green. Eastern Michigan hasn't played the stiffest of competition over their 3-0 start, but they have dominated all 3 games and will be playing with a ton of confidence in this one.
North Texas is coming off two really tough road games, as they were at VCU last Friday (lost a heartbreaker 59-56) and at Arkansas on Tuesday (lost by 23). Both games the offense really struggled, as they shot just 40% against the Rams and 33% against the Razorbacks.
Mean Green are just 19-35 ATS last 54 as a home favorite of 6.5 to 12 points, 18-36 last 54 in non-conference home games and 5-16 ATS last 21 at home off a loss by 20 or more. Take Eastern Michigan!
|11-16-19||Georgia -3 v. Auburn||21-14||Win||100||31 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAF -Georgia/Auburn SEC PLAY OF THE WEEK on Georgia -3 +100
I really like Georgia to go into Auburn and easily cover the 3. The Bulldogs had that ugly showing in their lone loss to South Carolina and have been all business since. They rolled Kentucky at home 21-0, beat Florida in Jacksonville 24-17 (wasn't as close as the final score) and just beat Missouri 27-0.
I have to believe there's a new sense of life with this team after being ranked No. 4 in the recent CFP poll. They know now that if they win out they are in and I just don't think Auburn will be as big a challenge as some think. Sure the Tigers have a great defense, but they have allowed 165+ rushing yards in their last two. If they aren't able to slow down Georgia's ground game they are in big trouble.
I just don't see Bo Nix and that Auburn offense being able to do enough here for them to win this game, which is basically what they have to do for us to not cover. Bulldogs are a dominant 11-3 ATS in their last 14 road games after the first month of the season and have covered 13 of their last 15 road games on Saturday. Auburn is also 0-6 ATS last 3 season off a home win. Take Georgia!
|11-16-19||Austin Peay +9 v. Tulsa||65-72||Win||100||4 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Austin Peay/Tulsa ATS WINNER on Austin Peay +9 -109
This is just too good a price to pass up with the Governors against the Golden Hurricane. Austin Peay comes in off a 22-point loss at Western Kentucky, but that's a really good Hilltoppers team who lost just 1 starter from a 20-win team and is expected to win C-USA this year.
Tulsa has started out 2-1, but there two wins have come by single-digits against the likes of Houston Baptist and Oral Roberts. They also lost by 14 on the road to Texas Arlington. Golden Hurricanes have a history of exceeding expectations under Frank Haith, but I don't think that's going to be the case this year. Take Austin Peay!
|11-16-19||Belmont +1.5 v. Boston College||100-85||Win||100||3 h 25 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Belmont/Boston College ATS WINNER on Belmont +1½ -110
The Bruins are worth a look here at basically a pick'em on the road against the Eagles. Boston College is getting a lot of love here after starting out 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS, but I think they are going down on Saturday.
One key matchup here that I think really favors Belmont is big man Nick Muszynski going up against the Eagles Nic Popvic. Muszynski is averaging 17.5 ppg and 3 bpg. He's not only going to get his, but he should be able to contain Popvic, BC's second leading scorer.
Bruins were red-hot from 3 last time out, going 16 of 38 (42%) against Samford. Belmont is 15-4 ATS last 19 after a game where they made 13 or more 3-pointers. Bruins are also a perfect 9-0 ATS as a dog the last 3 seasons. Eagles just 1-8 ATS last 9 at home off a home game. Take Belmont!
|11-16-19||Temple -4.5 v. La Salle||70-65||Win||100||3 h 25 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Temple/LaSalle ATS WINNER on Temple -4½ -110
I like the Owls to cash in a win and cover over LaSalle in Saturday's Big Five matchup. Temple has had a whole week to prepare for this one, as they haven't played since last Saturday's 18-point win over Morgan State.
While Temple has had ample time to prepare for this rivalry matchup, the Explorers just played a Big 5 rival in Penn on Wednesday. That didn't go well, as they lost by 16 as a 8.5-point dog.
Not real concerned with home court edge in this one. These two schools are a mere 3-miles apart on Broad Street. Expect plenty of Owls' fans in attendance.
I also think turnovers will be a big factor here. Temple has forced 36 turnovers in their first two games, while LaSalle has coughed up the rock 34 times in their first two games. Take Temple!
|11-16-19||Florida v. Missouri +7||23-6||Loss||-110||46 h 53 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Early Bird ATS ANNIHILATOR on Missouri +7 -110
The Tigers are worth a look as a touchdown dog at home against the Gators. This is the opportune time to buy low on Missouri, whose last 3 games have saw them lose at Vandy 21-14, at Kentucky 29-7 and most recently at Georgia 27-0.
As bad as those results look, I'm confident we are going to get the best the Tigers have to offer at home against the No. 11 Gators. History is also on our side here. Missouri is 42-21 ATS last 63 off a loss by 1 or more, 34-16 in their last 50 at home off a road loss and 21-9 ATS last 30 when they come in off 3 straight losses.
Florida is also a team that I think is a bit overvalued. They have been great against the spread of late, but elite teams (won more than 80% of their games) that have beat the spread by 49 or more in their last 5 games are just 35-73 (32%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take Vanderbilt!
|11-16-19||Wisconsin v. Nebraska +14.5||37-21||Loss||-109||17 h 41 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Nebraska +14½ -109
Solid value here with the Cornhuskers getting two touchdowns plus the hook at home against the Badgers. To say this season has been a disappointment for Nebraska would be an understatement, but I expect the best they have to offer Saturday against the nationally ranked Badgers.
If there wasn't already enough motivation for the Cornhuskers, they should get it from the comments made by Wisconsin linebacker Zack Baun, who had this to say about the rivalry. "I think it was a big rivalry back before they had the trophy, so they created the trophy, and now it hasn't left here. I don't know if it's much of a rivalry anymore."
Not only does that add a little fire for Nebraska, it tells me the Badgers aren't taking this game all that seriously. They were already in a big letdown spot coming off two big games against ranked teams in Ohio State and Iowa.
Wisconsin is just 2-5 ATS last 7 on the road, 4-10 ATS last 14 off a win and 0-5 ATS last 5 vs a team with a losing record. Take Nebraska!
|11-15-19||Cal-Irvine +3 v. Boise State||69-61||Win||100||13 h 39 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Cal-Irvine +3 -110
The betting public can't get enough of the Broncos as a small home favorite against the Anteaters, but I really like Cal-Irvine to go into Boise and get a win, making them an easy play at this price.
Boise went just 13-20 overall and 7-11 (T-7th) in the MWC last year, but because they bring back their top four scorers and add in a couple of Pac-12 transfers, people are expecting a big turnaround. I'm not convinced that will be the case. It certainly didn't look to be in their last game, when they lost by 31 on the road to Oregon as a 10.5-point dog.
UC Irvine comes in averaging 82.3 ppg on 49.7% shooting, which is pretty remarkable when you factor they have shot a miserable 29% from behind the 3-point line. Good chance they get that going against a Broncos defense that is allowing their opponents to shoot 43.2% from deep against them on the season. The defense as a whole just isn't very good for the home team and it will cost them tonight. Take UC-Irvine!
|11-15-19||UC-Davis +5 v. Arkansas State||67-80||Loss||-110||10 h 60 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on UC-Davis +5 -110
The Aggies are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Red Wolves. I feel like we are getting a good price on UC-Davis in this one due to the fact that they have failed to cover each of their first two lined games. They also couldn't have played any worse than they did in their opener at Loyola when they got blasted 82-48 as a mere 13-point dog.
Arkansas State did manage to cover in their last game at home against VMI as a 7-point favorite, but the Keydets are 0-4, so that's nothing to get excited about. Red Wolves also shot a ridiculous 58% from the field, which is not the norm for this team. They only managed 43 points on 33% shooting the game before against Ole Miss.
Turnovers have been a problem for the Red Wolves. They are averaging 16 turnovers a game and will be facing a UC Davis defense that has forced an impressive 33 turnovers in their last 2 games. That's nothing new for the Aggies, as they have ranked in the top 40 nationally in defensive turnover rate the last two years. I'll take the points for insurance, but fully expect the Aggies to win outright. Take UC Davis!
|11-15-19||Alabama +1 v. Rhode Island||Top||79-93||Loss||-110||11 h 30 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Alabama +1 -110
I love the Crimson Tide at basically a pick'em on the road against the Rams. Alabama bounced back in a big way from their heartbreaking 1-point loss to Penn in their opener with a dominating 78-59 win at home over FAU, easily covering as a 12.5-point favorite.
Rhode Island failed to cover as a big favorite in their opener against Long Island and then were embarrassed on the road in a 73-55 loss as a 12-point dog to Maryland. Rams have not been able to get their offense going. They shot just 39% from the field against Long Island and then a mere 30% against the Terps.
Rhode Island has a solid trio of Langevine, Russell and Dowtin. Tide have guys that can give those three fits. Alabama's suffocating man-to-man defense travels well and will be too much for this struggling Rams offense to overcome. Take Alabama!
|11-15-19||Pistons -3 v. Hornets||Top||106-109||Loss||-109||10 h 28 m||Show|
5* NBA - Eastern Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on Pistons -3 -109
I think we are getting a great price with Detroit as a slim road favorite against the Hornets. Charlotte is off to a better start than most expected with 4 wins in their first 11 games, which puts them on pace to eclipse their win total of 23.5. I'm not buying into the early success and believe this team is going to struggle to find wins going forward.
We've seen clear signs of this of late, as they have lost 4 straight, which includes a couple of home losses to bad teams in the Pelicans and Grizzlies.
Pistons are just 4-8 to start the year, but did play a good chunk of their early schedule without Blake Griffin. While they enter having lost 3 straight, all 3 were by single-digits and two of those on the road. I expect a big effort here from Detroit on Friday and they are simply the better team and it's just not asking much for them to cover the small number.
Pistons are 22-10 ATS last 32 when playing a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take Detroit!
|11-15-19||Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -6||10-31||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Friday Night C-USA NO-BRAINER on Marshall -6 -110
With the recent news that Louisiana Tech starting quarterback J'Mar Smith and top wide out Adrian Hardy are both suspended for this game, this is an easy play on the Thundering Herd at home.
I just don't think the Bulldogs will be able to overcome the loss of Smith, especially on the road against a good Marshall team that is only giving up 24.0 ppg and 371 ypg. Smith has thrown for almost 2,500 yards with a 14-4 TD-INT ratio. He's also second on the team with 226 rushing yards. He's basically got all the reps and it's just asking too much of an inexperienced backup to play well on such short notice.
Marshall has struggled to cash at the betting window of late, but they are 31-15 ATS last 46 when they come in having failed to cover 4 or 5 of their last 6 games. Thundering Herd also own an impressive 16-5-2 ATS mark in their last 23 at home vs a team with a winning road record. Take Marshall!
|11-15-19||South Alabama -4 v. Chattanooga||72-90||Loss||-109||8 h 30 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on South Alabama -4 -109
Easy play here on the Jaguars as a small road favorite against the Mocs. We just saw how talented this South Alabama team is in their last game, as they nearly pulled off a big upset at home against Auburn, losing 70-69 as a 7-point dog. Not a huge surprise, given the Jaguars are considered the team to beat in the Sun Belt this year.
Chattanooga on the other hand is picked to finish near the bottom of the Southern Conference. The Mocs did just win 74-68 at Troy as a small road dog, but the Trojans are considered by many as the worst team in the Sun Belt.
Jaguars are 11-3 ATS last 14 games vs a team with a winning record, while the Mocs are a mere 2-12 ATS last 14 home games vs a team that's outscoring opponents by 12+ points/game. Take South Alabama!
|11-14-19||VMI v. Arkansas State -6||56-71||Win||100||11 h 20 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on Arkansas State -6 -109
The Red Wolves are definitely worth a look here as a small home favorite against the Keydets. Arkansas State is showing some value coming off an ugly 71-43 loss at Ole Miss and should have no problem winning here by double-digits at home against VMI.
The Keydets have lost each of their first 3 games and are expected to be down this year. Most have VMI picked to finish at or near the bottom of the Southern Conference and a big reason for that is they lost the conference's leading scorer, Bubba Parham, who transferred to Georgia Tech.
Red Wolves are 72-48 (60%) last 120 off a loss by 10 or more, while the Keydets are a mere 2-11 ATS last 13 on the road when playing their 3rd game in a week span. Take Arkansas State!
|11-14-19||Steelers v. Browns -2.5||Top||7-21||Win||100||35 h 24 m||Show|
5* NFL - Steelers/Browns AFC North PLAY OF THE MONTH on Browns -2½ -119
The Browns cashed as a similarly priced 2.5-point favorite in this past Sunday's 19-16 win at Buffalo. While Cleveland did need a late score to get the win and cover, they could have put that game away early had they not turned it over on downs after having a 1st & Goal from the 1-yard line.
Sometimes it's not about how you win and I think that's the case, as the Browns just needed something positive to happen. This is a much better team than their 3-6 record would suggest. On the flip side, I think this is a good spot to fade Pittsburgh after their big win at home over the Rams. I just don't think the Steelers are as good as their 5-4 record and these Thursday Night games are brutal on the road teams.
Teams off an upset win as a home dog that are a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) are just 3-22 (12%) ATS since 1983 in the 2nd half the season if facing a team with a losing record. Take Cleveland!
|11-14-19||Clippers -4 v. Pelicans||127-132||Loss||-109||9 h 20 m||Show|
3* NBA - Big Money ATS DESTROYER on Clippers -4 -109
The Clippers are worth a look here at New Orleans on Thursday. Good chance Los Angeles decided to rest Kawhi in the second game of a back-to-back, but the good news is Paul George is ready to make his season debut.
I think that will be more than enough for the Clippers to win here by 5 or more against a Pelicans team that just isn't very good and is dealing with a ton of injuries. New Orleans is not only a mere 2-8 SU, they are just 3-7 ATS. They are still waiting on the return on Zion from injury. Josh Hart and Lonzo Ball are both out, while Jahlil Okafor and Brandon Ingram are both listed as questionable.
Pelicans are 4-12 ATS last 16 at home and a mere 1-10 ATS last 11 at home against a team that has won fewer than 40% of their road games. Take Los Angeles!
|11-14-19||Heat v. Cavs +4.5||108-97||Loss||-105||8 h 58 m||Show|
4* NBA - Underdog VEGAS INSIDER on Cavs +4½ -105
I think we are getting a great price here with Cleveland at home against the Heat. This might seem like a small number for Miami to be laying against a sub-par Cavs team, but the Heat will be playing far from full strength. Derrick Jones Jr and Justise Winslow are both out for this game, while Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro are both questionable.
Cleveland might not be the most talented team, but they are playing hard under first year head coach John Beilein. Cavs have covered 3 straight are a very profitable 6-2-2 ATS on the season. Home team has also covered 4 of the last 5 in the series. Take Cleveland!
|11-13-19||Eastern Washington v. St. Louis -7.5||Top||60-82||Win||100||12 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider GAME OF THE MONTH on St. Louis -7½ -109
The Billikens should have no problem putting away the Eagles by double-digits Wednesday night. St Louis lost a lot from last year's squad that won 23 games and I think it has them undervalued to start out the season. The Billikens did get back do it all guard Jordan Goodwin and forward Hasahn French.
St Louis opened with a 22-point win as a mere 7-point favorite against Florida Gulf Coast and followed that up with a 11-point win as a 9.5-point favorite against Valpo. Billikens are 30-13 ATS at home when they come in off 2 straight covers.
Eastern Washington is just 2-10 ATS last 12 non-conference games and just 3-9 ATS last 12 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games. Take St Louis!
|11-13-19||Grizzlies +2.5 v. Hornets||119-117||Win||100||9 h 0 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Grizzlies +2½ -110
I like Memphis to cash in a win here as a small road dog against the Bobcats. Grizzlies are coming off a 113-109 win at San Antonio as a 10.5-point dog and I think that win will go a long way in giving this team the confidence it was lacking after a slow start.
Charlotte enters having lost 3 straight and are definitely a team worth fading with a small line at home. Hornets are a mere 9-22 ATS over the last 3 seasons at home with a line of +3 to -3. Road team has also covered 7 of the last 10 in the series. Take Memphis!
|11-13-19||Ohio +6 v. Iona||81-72||Win||100||8 h 21 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Ohio +6 -110
Iona might be the favorite to win the MAAC, but I just think the Gaels are getting too much respect at home against an Ohio team that has turned some heads in their first two games. The Bobcats opened the season with a 12-point win at St. Bonaventure as a 11.5-point dog. They followed that up with a 38-point win over Heidelberg.
Iona also played a team from the A-10 to open the season and they lost by 6 at LaSalle as a favorite. Note that LaSalle was picked to finish worse than the Bonnies in A-10 play. The Gaels shot just 30% from the field in that loss to the Explorers.
Iona is just 1-10 ATS last 10 non-conference games and are 3-11 ATS last 14 when coming off a loss. Take Ohio!
|11-12-19||Blazers v. Kings +2.5||99-107||Win||100||12 h 44 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night PLAY OF THE WEEK on Kings +2½ -110
Most are going to just blindly take Portland here with the news that the Kings have lost starting point guard De'Aaron Fox for weeks to a ankle injury suffered in Monday's practice. It might be tough for Sacramento to overcome this in the long-run, but I expect this team to really come out strong here in the first game without him.
Keep in mind the Kings have a legit backup to run the points in Corey Joseph and the team as a whole is playing with a ton of momentum having won 3 of their last 4. Blazers are just 4-6 on the year and their only win in their last 5 games is at home against the Hawks.
Another key factor here is rest. Portland will be playing their 4th game in 6 days, while the Kings are playing on 3 full days of rest. Take Sacramento!
|11-12-19||Washington State +4 v. Santa Clara||62-70||Loss||-110||13 h 3 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night BAILOUT BLOWOUT on Washington State +4 -110
The books just don't want to give this Cougars team any love. Washington State was a mere 3-point favorite in their opener against Seattle and they went on to win that game 85-54. Now they are getting points against San Clara? No way I'm passing up on the Cougars at this price.
Washington State will have the best player on the floor in C.J. Elleby, who flirted with leaving for the NBA. Elleby was sensational in the opener with 27 points and 7 rebounds. Cougars have covered 12 of their last 17 non-conference games and I'm confident they cash a winning ticket tonight. Take Washington State!
|11-12-19||Oral Roberts +7.5 v. Tulsa||67-74||Win||100||10 h 12 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Oral Roberts +7½ -110
Really like the value with the Golden Eagles. This just isn't an in-state matchup, both schools are located in Tulsa, OKlahoma. Oral Roberts might be considered the lesser of the two in this fight, but I think the Eagles have the goods to win this game outright.
Oral Roberts has two studs in Emmanuel Nzekwesi and Kevin Obanor, two more returning starters, and two grad transfers expected to play big roles. This team is all-in on winning the Summit and getting to the NCAA Tournament. Tulsa loses 3 key pieces from last year's team that went 18-14 and that team only beat the Golden Eagles by 10 (trailed by 5 at the half). Take Oral Roberts!
|11-12-19||Eastern Michigan v. Akron +17.5||42-14||Loss||-115||8 h 55 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Weekday MAC Attack CASH COW on Akron +17½ -115
I'm well aware of how bad the Zips have been both SU and ATS this season, but I think we are getting too good a price to pass up with the home dog Tuesday night. Eastern Michigan is not the kind of team that should be laying 3 scores on the road. The Eagles have lost 4 of 5 and are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
Road favorites who are allowing 31+ points/game and have allowed 31 or more in each of their last two are just 34-70 (32.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Eastern Michigan is also just 2-9 ATS under head coach Chris Creighton when his Eagles are playing a horrible team that's won less than 25% of their games. Take Akron!
|11-12-19||Pacific +5.5 v. Hawaii||Top||67-72||Win||100||13 h 5 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on Pacific +5½ -109
Easy play here for me with the Tigers as a decently priced road dog against the Rainbow Warriors. Hawaii has been overvalued in each of their first two games, as they failed to cover as a 17.5-point favorite in a 65-52 win over Florida A&M and as a 1.5-point favorite in a 81-75 loss to South Dakota.
Just so happens that Pacific has faced both of those teams and had pretty similar results. Tigers lost by 10-points at home to South Dakota and crushed Florida A&M 76-54. I not only think Pacific will cover, but I give them a great shot at winning outright.
Warriors are a mere 5-16 ATS last 21 games vs a team from the West Coast Conference and have failed to cover 4 straight at home. Take Pacific!
|11-11-19||Jazz v. Warriors +8.5||122-108||Loss||-109||12 h 11 m||Show|
4* NBA - Late Night VEGAS INSIDER on Warriors +8½ -109
It's crazy how things have turned with Golden State. The Warriors had been the biggest public bet in the league for years, but no one wants anything to do with this year's Golden State team. Sure, it's not the same team. Not even close. But I do feel it has the Warriors a bit undervalued here at home against the Jazz.
Utah is a team everyone was hyping up leading into the season and while they are off to a decent 6-3 start, they are just 3-6 ATS. Also, most of that success has come at home, as they are 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS on the road.
Also a big system in play backing a play on the Warriors, as underdogs with a losing record are 100-57 (64%) ATS over the last 5 seasons when coming off 3 or more straight road losses. Take Golden State!
|11-11-19||Seahawks v. 49ers -6||27-24||Loss||-109||108 h 19 m||Show|
4* NFL - Seahawks/49ers MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on 49ers -6 -109
The public is all over Seattle getting close to a touchdown on the road, but I really like the 49er to lay it on the Seahawks on Monday Night Football. San Francisco is one of the most complete teams in the league and there's not many teams they want to beat more than Seattle, as these two have formed quite the rivalry over the last decade.
Most are just assuming Russell Wilson will do enough here to keep Seattle within the number, but it's been near impossible to throw the ball with any kind of success against this 49ers defense. In San Francisco's last 6 games they are giving up a mere 108 passing/yards game.
I could see Wilson throwing for 200 yards here, but I just don't think they will be able to score enough here. People like to overlook how poorly this Seahawks defense is playing. Seattle has allowed 28 or more in 4 of their last 5 games and the only exception game against Atlanta without Matt Ryan. 49ers are averaging 35.3 ppg at home this season. Take San Francisco!
|11-11-19||Rockets -5.5 v. Pelicans||122-116||Win||100||10 h 46 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Rockets -5½ -109
Houston is definitely worth a look here laying what I feel is a short number against a struggling Pelicans team. Rockets started out the season failing to cover each of their first 6 games, but have won and covered each of their last 3. The most recent a 117-94 blowout win at Chicago as a similarly priced 6.5-point favorite.
New Orleans comes in off a win and cover in a 115-10 win at Charlotte, but are just 2-7 overall. In each of their last 4 losses have come by double-digits. After really struggling defensively early on, Houston has been much better on that side of the ball of late. I just don't see the Pelicans being able to keep pace. Rockets are averaging 120.1 ppg and New Orleans are giving up 122.4 ppg. Take Houston!
|11-11-19||Samford +9 v. Belmont||63-95||Loss||-110||10 h 8 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Samford +9 -110
I like the value here with the Bulldogs as a near double-digit dog against the Bruins. Belmont has some nice pieces back from last year's team that received an at-large big, but they lost two big time playmakers in Dylan Windler (21.3 ppg, 10.8 rpg) and Kevin McClain (16.8 ppg).
Bruins lost their opener 72-79 at Illinois State as a 5.5-point favorite. I just feel Belmont is getting a little too much love from the books to start the year and this Samford team is not only capable of covering, but winning this game outright. Bulldogs are an impressive 11-2 ATS in their last 13 non-conference games and a perfect 7-0 the last 2 seasons as a road underdog. Take Samford!
|11-10-19||Bucks v. Thunder +8||121-119||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Thunder +8 -105
Love the value here with Oklahoma City as a big home dog against the Bucks. I just feel like this is way too many points for Milwaukee to be laying in this spot. Bucks are finishing up a 4-game road trip that has seen them go from Minnesota, to LA, to Utah and now OKC in the last 7 days.
You can see the effects of this trip getting to Milwaukee by their poor shooting performances against both the Clippers (42.9%) and Jazz (35.8%). Note they also used up a ton of energy ralling from a 22-point halftime deficit against Utah, only to lose on a last second shot.
Thunder have won 3 of 4 and have a 5-1 record the last 6 times they have hosted the Bucks. Thunder have also covered 5 of their last 6 vs a team from the Eastern Conference and are 4-1 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take Oklahoma City!
|11-10-19||Rams v. Steelers +3.5||12-17||Win||100||80 h 29 m||Show|
3* NFL - Situational DOG OF THE DAY on Steelers +3½ -105
I like the value here with the Steelers as a home dog. I just think we are seeing the Rams way overvalued here coming off their bye having won and covered each of their last two. I just don't get the hype over LA's last two wins, as they were against two awful teams in the Falcons and Bengals.
They aren't going to find it so easy moving the ball against this Steelers defense, which has really carried this team back into contention. They have been really good against the pass and I believe if you can make it difficult on Jared Goff and not let him get into a rhythm, this offense struggles to score, especially with how they are running the ball. Rams are only averaging 97 yards/game on the ground and have eclipsed the 100 yard mark just once in their last 6 games.
Steelers are 7-2-2 ATS last 11 off a SU win and 8-2 ATS last 10 off a cover. Rams are also just 13-29 ATS last 42 vs teams who have a +1 per game turnover margin or better. Steelers have forced 3 or more turnovers in 4 straight games and at least two in 7 straight. Take Pittsburgh!
|11-10-19||Arkansas-Little Rock +5.5 v. Illinois State||70-75||Win||100||6 h 46 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Arkansas-Little Rock +5½ -109
The Trojans are worth a look here as a small road dog against the Redbirds. Little Rock opened up the season as a 5.5-point dog at home against Belmont and went on to win the game outright 79-72.
I like their chances of making it two straight upsets with a win against Illinois State, who is working in 8 new players to a team that won just 17-games last year. Redbirds have failed to cover in 5 straight against a team from the Sun Belt, while the Trojans are a solid 5-2 ATS last 7 vs the Missouri Valley. Take Little Rock!
|11-10-19||Ravens -10 v. Bengals||49-13||Win||100||77 h 4 m||Show|
3* NFL - Sharp Money ATS DESTROYER on Ravens -10 +100
I got no problem here laying double-digits on the road with the Ravens on Sunday. Baltimore has won 4 straight and are coming off a 17-point win at home against the Patriots. The Bengals haven't won a game all season and it's got so bad in Cincinnati they are benching Andy Dalton in favor of rookie Ryan Finley.
I just don't think it's going to get any better offensively with Finley under center. Andy Dalton wasn't great in the Bengals first 8 games, but he's not the reason they have one of the worst offenses in the league. Bengals have eclipsed 17 points just once in their last 7 games. With the way defenses are struggling to contain Lamar Jackson and that Ravens offense, I just don't see Cincinnati keeping this close.
Ravens are 12-1 ATS in the 2nd half of the season in their last 13 road games vs awful defensive teams that are giving up 375+ yards/game. On the flip side of this, Bengals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games vs good offensive teams that are averaging 350+ yards/game. Take Baltimore!
|11-10-19||Giants -3 v. Jets||27-34||Loss||-100||35 h 9 m||Show|
3* NFL - Vegas ODDSMAKERS ERROR on Giants -3 +100
You won't see me laying points on the road with a 2-7 team often, but this isn't really a road game for the Giants, as they share MetLife Stadium with the Jets. I just think the Jets are a dumpster fire right now and it's not going to get any better.
Sam Darnold and this Jets offense has been atrocious in their last 3 games. Darnold is playing without absolute no confidence right now. In his last 3 starts he's thrown 8 interceptions. It's not just all on Darnold. New York has only eclipsed 20 points once this season, scoring 16 or fewer in all but 2 games. That's why I'm not overly concerned with how the Giants defense has struggled.
Also, when it's going bad for the Jets, it's a good idea to keep fading them. They are 0-6 ATS over the last 2 seasons when they come into a contest having lost 4 of their last 5. Jets are also 5-15 ATS last 20 in the 2nd half of the season vs teams that allow 375 or more yards/game, while Giants are 6-0 ATS last 6 road games vs teams allowing 350 or more yards/game. Take the Giants!
|11-10-19||Florida State +6 v. Florida||Top||63-51||Win||100||4 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - In-State Rivalry PLAY OF THE MONTH on Florida State +6 -105
I really like the value we are getting with the Seminoles as a dog. I think we are getting a great price here on FSU coming off an upset loss on the road at Pitt in their opener. Winning on the road right out of the gate is never easy, especially against a conference opponent.
I also wasn't overly impressed with Florida in their 15 point win as a 22-point favorite at home against North Florida. Wouldn't be shocked at all if the Seminoles won this game outright.
Gators have been an awful bet at home, as they are 3-13 ATS last 16 at the Exactech Arena, including a 0-6 ATS mark in their last 6 at home with a total of 130 to 134.5. Take Florida State!
|11-09-19||Nevada +17.5 v. San Diego State||Top||17-13||Win||100||21 h 45 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Nevada +17½ -105
Love this spot and the price we are getting with the Wolf Pack. This is just too many points for San Diego State to be laying with how much they struggle to score. Aztecs are only averaging 21.7 ppg on the season and it actually gets worse when they play at home, where they are scoring just 16.3 ppg.
Nevada's defense isn't great, but they did just hold New Mexico to a mere 10-points last week, so they can keep SDST in check. Last time out the Aztecs were a 11.5-point favorite at home to UNLV and barely won 20-17. San Diego State is 3-11 ATS last 14 games as a home favorite. Take Nevada!
|11-09-19||Iowa State v. Oklahoma -14||41-42||Loss||-109||94 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Oklahoma -14 -109
I like the Sooners to lay it on the Cyclones and easily cover the two touchdown spread this Saturday. This will be the first time that Oklahoma takes the field since they had that shocking 48-41 loss at Kansas State two weeks ago. I believe that loss was more of the Sooners just being a little too cocky and not giving the Wildcats the respect they deserved.
I have to believe it hasn't been a fun two weeks of practice for Oklahoma and we are going to get their very best coming out of the bye. This is also a game the Sooners have had circled, as they have definitely not forgot about the last time Iowa State came to Norman and beat them 38-31 as a 31-point underdog.
Iowa State is also a good but not great team this year. I think that's pretty evident by their last game at home against Oklahoma State, where they lost 34-27 as a 11-point favorite. I know the Cyclones have a decent defense, but I don't think they got any shot here of slowing down Jalen Hurts and that Sooners offense. Take Oklahoma!
|11-09-19||Oklahoma v. Minnesota +4.5||71-62||Loss||-110||18 h 17 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Minnesota +4½ -110
I really like the value here with Minnesota catching points against Oklahoma. I just think this is going to be a tough year for the Sooners, who lost 6 seniors and had two other guys transfer from last year's team. I know the Gophers are reloading as well, but I like what they got coming back. Minnesota was impressive in their opener, destroying Cleveland State 85-50 as a 22-point favorite. Oklahoma is 7-19 ATS as a road favorite under Kruger, including a 4-14 ATS mark on the road when favored by 6 or less. Take Minnesota!
|11-09-19||Florida International +10.5 v. Florida Atlantic||7-37||Loss||-108||58 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Conf-USA PLAY OF THE WEEK on Florida International +10½ -108
I really like the value here with FIU catching double-digits against rival FAU. The Golden Panthers have got fire after a slow start. FIU is 4-1 in their last 5 after starting out 1-3. They have failed to cover 3 straight, but I think they go from being overvalue to undervalued with how much the public is on this Owls team.
FAU has been a solid fade at home, as they are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 at home. They are also just 15-29 ATS last 44 at home when listed as a favorite. Panthers are also a team to back late in the year, as they are 7-3 ATS last 10 after 3 straight conference games. Take FIU!
|11-09-19||Celtics v. Spurs -1||135-115||Loss||-110||7 h 4 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Spurs -1 -110
I'm not sure why the books are undervaluing San Antonio so much at home, but I'll gladly back the Spurs at basically a pick'em against the Celtics. Part of the value with SA comes from Boston being overvalued coming in having won 6 straight and going 4-1-1 ATS during that run.
Spurs are 14-4 ATS last 18 home games with a line of +3 to -3 and 16-6 ATS last 22 at home as a favorite of 6 or less. Boston comes in off a 108-87 blowout win over Charlotte, but are just 1-6-1 ATS last 8 off a SU win by more than 10 points. Take San Antonio!
|11-09-19||Southern Utah v. Nebraska -7||Top||79-78||Loss||-110||12 h 17 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER Top Play on Nebraska -7 -110
It was about as awful a start to the season as Nebraska fans could have hoped for when their team came out and got annihilated 66-47 by UC-Riverside as a 15.5-point home favorite. Not what they were expecting in the debut of Fred Hoiberg.
However, I think that result has created some big time value here with the Cornhuskers, who are laying single digits against a Southern Utah team that picked to finish middle of the pack in the Big Sky. Even after the loss in the opener, Nebraska is 22-10 ATS last 32 at home. Cornhuskers are also 10-1 ATS last 11 at home if their last game was a non-conference game. Take Nebraska!
|11-09-19||UTSA +4 v. Old Dominion||24-23||Win||100||12 h 13 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Vegas ATS LINE MISTAKE on UTSA +4 -105
I like the value here with UTSA catching more than a field goal against the Monarchs. UTSA has gone 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last 4 games. Old Dominion hasn't won a game since beating Norfolk State in the opener and have covered only twice in their last six games. Last they were favored was as a 3-point home favorite to ECU and they lost that outright. Road Runners have been a dog of 6 or less twice this year and won both outright, including a double-digit win at UTEP. Take UTSA!
|11-09-19||Massachusetts v. Fairfield +4.5||62-60||Win||100||5 h 42 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Early Bird CASH COW on Fairfield +4½ -110
I like the Stags to cash in here as a small home dog against the Minutemen. UMASS has been a mess under Matt McCall and are likely to struggle some early with a bunch of new players and completely revamped coaching staff.
While it came in a loss, I was really impressed with Fairfields 64-68 loss to Bucknell in their season opener. That's a Bucknell team that had 3 starters back from a 21-win team and are the biggest threats to Colgate for the Patriot League title. Take Fairfield!
|11-09-19||Texas Tech v. West Virginia +3||Top||38-17||Loss||-110||86 h 47 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Big 12 GAME OF THE MONTH on West Virginia +3 -110
Love the Mountaineers as a home dog this Saturday against the Red Raiders. This couldn't be a better time to buy low on West Virginia, who comes in having lost 4 straight. Even though the Mountaineers easily covered as a 17.5-point home dog last time out at Baylor, most won't be able to get past the fact that they have scored exactly 14 points in each of their last 3 games.
The thing you have to keep in mind with the recent slide is the fact that it's come against arguably the four best teams in the Big 12 in Texas, Iowa State, Oklahoma and Baylor. Texas Tech is definitely a team they can beat and there's plenty of motivation still for West Virginia, as they need to win 3 of their last 4 to make a bowl.
Another thing is the Red Raiders should not be favored on the road against any team in the Big 12. Texas Tech is 0-4 on the road this season, where they are giving up 38.2 ppg and 548.2 ypg. Also, Red Raiders have lost 3 straight and 5 of 6 overall. Texas Tech head coach Matt Wells is 0-8 ATS as a head coach when his team comes in having lost 4/5 of their last 6. Take West Virginia!
|11-08-19||Washington -9.5 v. Oregon State||Top||19-7||Win||100||70 h 23 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH on Washington -9½ -110
I absolutely love the Huskies here in what I feel is a huge bounce back spot following a couple of tough losses against two of the Pac-12's best in Oregon and Utah. I get crazy things can happen in weekday games and Corvallis is not an easy place to play. However, I just think the talent gap here is too much for the Beavers to keep this to single-digits.
Last time Washington went on the road they were a slim 6-point favorite at Arizona and they annihilated the Wildcats 51-27. As for Oregon State, not question they are improved, but they still haven't been anyone worth a lick. Last time they hosted a decent team was Utah in the middle of October. Beavers were a mere 14-point dog and got annihilated 52-7.
I just don't think it's asking a lot for Washington to win here by at least 2 touchdowns. Oregon State is just 2-7 ATS last 9 at home and Huskies are a dominant 14-5 ATS last 19 as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Take Washington!
|11-08-19||76ers +5 v. Nuggets||97-100||Win||100||11 h 1 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on 76ers +5 -110
Most will look to take the Nuggets here as a small home favorite, as the 76ers will be without Ben Simmons, but Philadelphia nearly won at Utah last time out with Simmons going out in the 1st half. We also know the 76ers are going to be extremely motivated here having lost their last two.
Nuggets come in off back-to-back wins, but those were against the Magic and Heat. I just haven't been all that impressed with Denver early on and they have already failed to cover 2 of 3 at home this season. 76ers are 7-1 ATS last 8 off a SU loss, while Nuggets are 1-4 ATS last 5 vs a team with a winning record. Take Philadelphia!
|11-08-19||Illinois v. Grand Canyon +8||83-71||Loss||-109||11 h 6 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Late Night ATS DESTROYER on Grand Canyon +8 -109
I really like the value here with Grand Canyon as a near double-digit dog at home against Illinois. The fact that the Fighting Illini are laying this small a number against a team from the WAC really tells you all you need to know.
The Antelopes are a popular pick to win the WAC this year and they landed a big time transfer in TCU's Jaylen Fisher. Not to mention we already saw Illinois struggle against a small conference team, as they only won by 8 at home against Nicholls State in their opener and they were a 22.5-point favorite in that one. Take Grand Canyon!
|11-08-19||Raptors v. Pelicans +2.5||122-104||Loss||-105||10 h 3 m||Show|
4* NBA - Big Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Pelicans +2½ -105
I really like this spot for New Orleans and the books definitely agree with this line begging for public money on the Raptors. Pelicans are a much better team than their 1-6 record would suggest.
Another key factor here is we can bank on a max effort here from New Orleans, as they will be ready to roll after a much-needed 3-day break. As for the Raptors, they might have a hard time showing up here, as they get ready to take off on a 5-game west coast trip.
It's also important to note that Toronto is coming off a up-and-down game against the Kings, where the two combined for 244 points. Raptors are 4-17 ATS last 21 off a game with a combined score of 235 or more. Toronto has also failed to cover 7 of their last 23 road games vs a team that's won fewer than 40% of their games. Take New Orleans!
|11-08-19||Cavs +5 v. Wizards||113-100||Win||100||9 h 6 m||Show|
4* NBA - Sharp Money ATS NO-BRAINER on Cavs +5 -109
Cleveland is worth a look here as a small dog against the Wizards. This might seem like a favorable line to back Washington at home against a Cavs team that is just 2-5 on the season and come in having lost 3 straight. However, I actually like Cleveland to win this game outright.
I've liked what I've seen out of this Cavs team. The schedule just has been tough to start. This is by far the worst team they have played. I also don't like this spot for the Wizards, who will have 4-days off after this one.
Wizards are a miserable 5-15 ATS last 20 home games played on Friday and have gone just 11-25 ATS last 36 vs a bad team that's winning between 25%-40% of their games. Cavs are 18-7 ATS last 25 vs a team that's winning fewer than 40% of their games and 8-3 ATS last 11 on the road vs teams in this spot. Take Cleveland!
|11-08-19||Central Florida -17 v. Tulsa||31-34||Loss||-109||55 h 10 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - UCF/Tulsa Weeknight MONEYMAKER on Central Florida -17 -109
I got no problem laying the big number here with UCF at Tulsa Friday night. I get the Golden Hurricane have played some of the top teams in the AAC tough this year, but I just question how much fight they have left after last week's gut-wrenching loss at Tulane.
With that loss to the Green Wave, Tulsa is now 2-7 on the season and can no longer reach the 6-win mark to become bowl eligible. With that said, I don't know that a fully motivated Golden Hurricane team could keep this close. UCF is rolling right now. The Knights followed up a 63-21 win at Temple with a 44-29 victory of Houston. UCF is scoring 46.3 ppg and Tulsa is allowing 33.0 ppg. Knights are 7-3 ATS last 10 on the road. Take Central Florida!
|11-08-19||Marist +7.5 v. VMI||58-56||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
3* NCAAB - Vegas Underdog ATS ANNIHILATOR on Marist +7½ -110
I just feel like this is way too many points for the Keydets to be laying against the Red Foxes. I get Marist isn't very good and is expected to finish near the bottom of the MAAC, but not a lot is expected out of VMI either.
While the Red Foxes will be taking the court for the first time this season, the Keydets opened on Tuesday at East Carolina and get destroyed 80-68 as a 8.5-point dog. VMI was lucky to only lose by 12, as they shot just 37% from the field, while allowing the Pirates to connect on 53%. That's a ECU team that won just 10 games last year. Take Marist!
|11-07-19||Temple v. South Florida +2.5||17-7||Loss||-112||12 h 12 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - USF/Temple ATS NO-BRAINER on South Florida +2½ -112
Really like the price and the spot here with South Florida as a home dog Thursday night against Temple. Public is all over the Owls and the books are letting them have it with this line being less than a field goal.
For most people they just can't get past how bad USF was early in the year. Charlie Strong has really got this team on track and let's not forget this was a team a lot of people were picking ahead of Temple in the ACC prior to the season starting.
Confidence can be everything and the Bulls have it right now, as they have won 3 of their last 4 and are starting to impose their will on the ground. USF has rushed for 240+ yards in 3 of their last 4. Temple just followed up a 24-point loss at SMU with a 42-point loss at home to UCF.
Teams with a line of +3 to -3 that rushed for 150+ yards in their last game and are facing a team that was outgained on the ground by 125+ yards are 27-6 (82%) ATS over the last 5 seasons. Take South Florida!
|11-06-19||Virginia -2.5 v. Syracuse||48-34||Win||100||21 h 38 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Virginia -2½ -110
I got no problem laying the short number here with the defending champs on the road against the Orange. No denying that Virginia lost a lot of talent from last year's team, but time after time TOny Bennett has made it work with whatever he has on his roster. To think this team won't be one of the best in the ACC is a mistake.
Syracuse is a team I think could be down this year. They lost 3 of their top 4 scores and the backcourt situation doesn't look ideal. Sure they will play tough defense under Jim Boeheim, but I don't think that will be enough here. I just don't see Syracuse scoring enough to pull off the upset. Take Virginia!
|11-06-19||Green Bay v. Purdue -19||Top||57-79||Win||100||19 h 33 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE MONTH on Purdue -19 -110
I got no problem laying the big number with Purdue at home against the likes of Green Bay. I think people are sleeping on the Boilermakers a little bit due to them losing Carson Edwards, but this is a team that has the good to contends with the likes of Michigan State and others for the Big Ten title.
They might not have the superstar on their roster like Edwards, but they are extremely deep and I just don't see the Phoenix being able to keep pace. History agrees, as the Boilermakers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a home favorite of 18.5 to 24 points. Take Purdue!
|11-05-19||St. Mary's -3 v. Wisconsin||Top||65-63||Loss||-115||20 h 50 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Late Night NO LIMIT Top Play on St. Mary's -3 -115
You might be wondering why Wisconsin is getting points against the Gaels. It's for good reason and I think St Mary's is going to make easy work of a Badgers team in transition. Wisconsin only loses two starters, but they lost one of the best players in the country in Ethan Happ. For a team that ranked 276th in scoring at 68.6 ppg, I think the offense is going to have a hard time keeping pace with better competition.
The Gaels have all their key guys back from last year's NCAA Tournament team that won 22-games and beat Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament, despite many thinking it was going to be a down year for St Mary's. They also got some key guys back from injury and this is one they need for their resume come March. Take St. Mary's!
|11-05-19||Toledo v. Valparaiso +3||77-79||Win||100||18 h 10 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - No Doubt ATS HEAVY HITTER on Valparaiso +3 -110
I think we are getting a great price on the Crusaders. Toledo is one of the better programs in the MAC, so they get a lot of love from experts. I just think they are getting a little too much coming into the 2019-20 season. Sure they won 25 games last year, but they lost two of their best players in Jaelan Sanford and Nate Nagigato.
Valpo went just 15-18 last year and with the news that leading scorer and rebounder, Derrick Smits left for Butler, not much is expected of this team. They got back a couple of double-digit scorers, while adding in 3 transfers. Eron Gordon from Seton Hall, Nick Robinson from St. Joe's and ZIon Morgan from UNLV. I think the wrong team is favored. Take Valparaiso!
|11-05-19||Celtics -5.5 v. Cavs||119-113||Win||100||8 h 27 m||Show|
3* NBA - Vegas ATS ANNIHILATOR on Celtics -5½ -109
I got no problem laying a short number on the road with Boston against the Cavs. Cleveland is showing some fight under first year head coach John Beilein, but that's only going to get this team so far with the talent they have.
Even with the Celtics likely playing without Enes Kanter or Jaylen Brown, I look for Boston to win this game by double-digits. Celtics have won 4 straight since losing a hard fought game at 76ers in their opener, which included a 118-95 win at New York against a similarly bad Knicks team. Take Boston!
|11-05-19||Kansas +1 v. Duke||Top||66-68||Loss||-109||26 h 1 m||Show|
5* NCAAB - Opening Night PLAY OF THE YEAR on Kansas +1 -109
Most are going to look at this and just blindly take Duke because of how much respect this program has with Coach K. Everyone knows the Blue Devils lost a lot from last year's team, but the assumption is that they just reload. I get it and that's definitely true to a point, but I got a hard time believing Duke has anywhere close to as talented a Top 3 as they had last year with Zion, RJ Barrett and Cam Reddish.
Things didn't look good for KU early on in the offseason, but that didn't last long. Jayhawks got two guys back they thought were leaving early in Udoka Azubuike and Devon Dotson. THey also were not expecting Sivio De Sousa to win his appeal and be eligible to play. I like the mix of youth and experience on this team and while Duke might have the better NBA talent, I think it's going to take time for the Blue Devils to reach their full potential with how young they are. Take Kansas!
|11-05-19||Virginia Tech v. Clemson -5||67-60||Loss||-115||17 h 13 m||Show|
4* NCAAB - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Clemson -5 -115
I like the Tigers to win here easily at home against ACC rival Virginia Tech. Clemson lost a couple guys to ACL injuries that they hoped would help this year, but there's still plenty of talent on deck for the Tigers to build on last year's 9-9 finish in conference play.
As for the Hokies, they are a team in major transition after losing an elite head coach in Buzz Williams. Not only that, Williams didn't leave new head coach Mike Young a whole lot to work with. Hokies lost 4 starters and have to replace their top 5 scores from last year.
It's also worth noting that Clemson got a bit of a head start, as they played and won the World University Games in Italy. That time to build chemistry is huge and should have them ready to roll to start the year. Take Clemson!
|11-04-19||Cowboys v. Giants +7||Top||37-18||Loss||-115||36 h 57 m||Show|
5* NFL - Cowboys/Giants MNF ATS HEAVY HITTER on Giants +7 -115
I love the value here with New York getting a TD at home against the Cowboys. No question this line is inflated in favor of Dallas, as they are a massive public team and the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league right now at 2-6.
Dallas also getting a ton due to the fact that they went into their bye off a dominating 37-10 win at home over the Eagles and due to the fact they whooped the Giants at home 35-17 in Week 1. Thing is that was with Eli Manning at quarterback and without their top wide out Golden Tate. Daniel Jones is definitely an upgrade of Eli and I think this offense will be able to do enough to cover this spread.
Cowboys are just 6-16 ATS last 22 road game soff a home win by 21 or more points and the Giants are a dominant 17-3 ATS last 20 after giving up 17 or more points in the 1st half of 2 straight games. Take New York!
|11-03-19||Jazz v. Clippers -4||94-105||Win||100||11 h 4 m||Show|
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Clippers -4 -109
This is just too good a value to pass up with the Clippers at home. Los Angeles just lost at Utah by double-digits last week, but that was to be expected given that Khawi didn't play. With Leonard in the lineup the Clippers should have no problem winning by 5 or more at home.
Utah has failed to cover 5 of their last 6 on the road, while the Clippers are a strong 31-16 ATS last 47 as a favorite. Just look at the Jazz's road games this year. They scored a mere 86 points in a 9-point loss to the Lakers, barely beat the Suns by 1-point in Phoenix and lost outright to the Kings as a 4-point favorite. Take Los Angeles!
|11-03-19||Patriots v. Ravens +3.5||Top||20-37||Win||100||12 h 3 m||Show|
5* NFL- Pats/Ravens SNF PLAY OF THE MONTH on Ravens +3½ -115
I know the Patriots have looked unbeatable threw the first half of the season, but you just can't ignore how easy the schedule has been. Their last 7 games have come against the Browns, Jets, Giants, Redskins, Bills, Jets and Dolphins. Buffalo is the only one of those teams with a winning record.
Note that while they beat the Bills 16-10, they should have probably lost. Buffalo had a 375 to 224 edge in total yards and 23 first downs to the Pats 11. This Ravens team is the best that NE will have seen all season. Lamar Jackson's ability to make plays with his legs is the one thing you can't defend for and I think we see the NE defense struggle for the first time this season. Also, big edge playing at home in a prime time game like this.
Road favorites who are outscoring opponents by 10+ ppg are just 18-52 (26%) ATS over the last 10 seasons when coming off a win by 10 or more. Take Baltimore!
|11-03-19||Jets v. Dolphins +3.5||18-26||Win||100||5 h 41 m||Show|
4* NFL - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Dolphins +3½ -120
As difficult as it may be to bet on a team at this price that doesn't have a win, I really like the value with Miami on Sunday. This is not the same Dolphins team that wasn't trying early in the season. They have really been playing hard and enter having covered 3 straight.
Jets are a complete mess right now. The ghosts that Sam Darnold started seeing against the Patriots were also in Jacksonville, as Darnold threw 3 more picks and was sacked 8 times by the Jaguars. Not only is he struggling, but there's beef within the locker room and how management handled the attempt to trade safety Jamal Adams. No team wants to go 0-16 and I think we get a big effort here from the Dolphins and they get that first win of 2019. Take Miami!
|11-02-19||New Mexico +5 v. Nevada||10-21||Loss||-109||132 h 16 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Late Night ATS NO-BRAINER on New Mexico +5 -109
The Lobos are definitely worth a look here at this price. I get New Mexico has lost 5 straight and are just 2-6 on the season, but Nevada isn't exactly lighting up the world. Wolf Pack have 4 wins but two of those are against UTEP and Weber State. they have lost 3 of their last 4 and are just 1-4-1 ATS last 6.
Nevada shouldn't be laying more than a field goal with how they play defense. Wolf Pack are allowing 37.6 ppg and 6.4 yards/play. Lobos have been a great bet under Davie against teams that give up a lot of points. New Mexico has covered 13 of their last 15 against teams that allow 31 or more points/game. Lobos are also 10-2 ATS last 12 on the road after trailing in their previous game by 24 or more at the half. Take New Mexico!
|11-02-19||76ers +2.5 v. Blazers||129-128||Win||100||12 h 58 m||Show|
4* NBA - Situational ATS HEAVY HITTER on 76ers +2½ -110
Easy play on the 76ers getting points against the Blazers Saturday night. Portland is getting love here because they are at home, but the Blazers did just finish up a 4-game road trip and have been on the go since the season started (have yet to play two straight at home).
Philadelphia has started out 4-0 and will not be overlooking this one. Last year the Blazers swept both meetings against the 76ers in blowout fashion, winning 129-95 at home and 130-115 at Philly. I just don't think this year's Blazers team is as strong as the one that made the Western Conference Finals. Even with Embiid suspended, I still think the 76ers will role here. Take Philadelphia!
|11-02-19||Nuggets v. Magic +4.5||91-87||Win||100||9 h 4 m||Show|
3* NBA - Undervalued UNDERDOG on Magic +4½ -110
Most will immediately look to fade Orlando here, as the Magic will be on no rest and just got annihilated by 32 at home last night against the Bucks. Not me. I'm confident Orlando will respond here with not only a cover, but I like them to win outright.
Denver has last their last two. The most recent being a 122-107 loss at New Orleans as a 4-point favorite. The offense just isn't in sync right now for the Nuggets and while it didn't show last night, this Magic team can get after you defensively. Even after giving up 123 to the Bucks they are still allowing just 97 ppg at home. Take Orlando!
|11-02-19||UAB +10.5 v. Tennessee||Top||7-30||Loss||-110||129 h 14 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Non-Conference PLAY OF THE MONTH on UAB +10½ -110
As bad as it's been for the Volunteers this year, I think the public is going to be tempted to take Tennessee laying less than two touchdowns against a team from C-USA, especially considering the Vols have won 2 of their last 3, including a 41-21 blowout win over South Carolina last time out.
That tells me the books really like UAB's chances to cover and I agree. The Blazers are extremely well coached under Bill Clark, who has a 31-15 record in 3+ seasons in Birmingham. Vols are also just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games and 2-7 ATS last 9 off a win.
Great system in play favoring a fade of Tennessee. Home teams that have won 2 of their last 3 games and still own a winning percentage between 25% to 40% are just 8-34 (19%) ATS when facing a team with a winning record. Take UAB!
|11-02-19||Oregon State +6.5 v. Arizona||56-38||Win||100||127 h 35 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Situational VEGAS INSIDER on Oregon State +6½ -107
Big time value here with the Beavers catching almost a touchdown on the road against the Wildcats. Oregon State is a program on the rise. Beavers have already won 3 games this season and just pulled off a big upset at Cal as a double-digit dog.
Arizona has lost and failed to cover 3 straight games. To say the defense has been bad for the Wildcats would be an understatement. Arizona has allowed 41 or more in 3 straight games. Prior to playing to really good defensive teams in Utah and Cal, Oregon State scored 28 or more in 4 straight, twice eclipsing 40 points. I actually like the Beavers to win this game outright, but I'll take the points for insurance.
Great system in play favoring a play on the Beavers. Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points in Weeks 10-13, who have covered 4 of their last 5 are 38-13 (75%) ATS last 10 seasons. Take Oregon State!
|11-02-19||Tulsa v. Tulane -9.5||26-38||Win||100||126 h 57 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Sharp Money ATS HEAVY HITTER on Tulane -9½ -109
I got no problem here laying the points with the Green Wave at home. This is the ideal spot to fade Tulsa off an absolutely gut-wrenching 42-41 loss at home to Memphis. That's now 4 straight losses for the Golden Hurricanes and I just don't think they are going to want anything to do with playing a pissed off Tulane team on the road.
Green Wave are just 4-3, but those 3 losses have all come on the road against top tier teams in Memphis, Navy and Auburn. Last year Tulane won and covered at Tulsa and the year before won 62-28 as a slim 5.5-point home favorite.
Green Wave are 4-0 ATS last 5 at home and 18-8 ATS last 26 at home vs a team with a losing road record. Tulsa is 3-9 ATS last 12 off a cover, 1-4 ATS last 5 after scoring 40 or more and 2-8 ATS last 10 after rushing for 200+ yards. Take Tulane!
|11-02-19||UNLV v. Colorado State -9||17-37||Win||100||126 h 59 m||Show|
4* NCAAF - Vegas Oddsmakers LINE MISTAKE on Colorado State -9 -108
I got no problem laying single digits with the Rams at home against this UNLV team. The Rebels surprised some people last week with a mere 3-point loss at home to San Diego State as a 11.5-point dog. Mainly because the Aztecs look like a team that will be playing for the MWC title later this month.
I just think that was UNLV simply giving it all they had and San Diego State kinda just going thru the motions against a team they knew they were better than. Every other loss the Rebels have suffered has been by more than two touchdowns.
Colorado State got off to that awful 1-5 start, but a lot of that was them just playing a brutal schedule out of the gate Rams enter having won their last two, including a 41-31 upset win at Fresno State last time out. Colorado State has simply been undervalued and it shows with their 4-1 ATS mark in their last 5.
UNLV is 6-16 ATS last 22 on the road after losing 6/7 of their last 8 games and 3-11 ATS last 14 off a cover. Take Colorado State!
|11-02-19||TCU +4.5 v. Oklahoma State||27-34||Loss||-109||125 h 30 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on TCU +4½ -109
I think the value here with TCU as a dog against the Cowboys. Both teams are off big wins last week. Horned Frogs defeated Texas 37-27 at home, while Oklahoma State went on the road and beat a red-hot ISU team.
I think the key to slowing down this Cowboys team is to stop the run and that's something TCU has done extremely well. Horned Frogs are giving up just 3.2 yards/carry. Oklahoma State had also just lost at home to Baylor by 18 the week before and also lost by double-digit to a pretty mediocre Texas Texas squad.
Cowboys are much better suited to beat teams that want to get in a shootout. OK State is just 9-21 ATS vs similar teams like TCU that control 32+ minutes of possession and 21+ first downs. Underdog has also covered 4 straight in the series. Take TCU!
|11-02-19||Marshall v. Rice +10.5||20-7||Loss||-109||122 h 50 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Rice +10½ -109
I think we are getting a decent price here with the Owls catching double-digits. Rice is thought of by many as one of the worst teams in the country, as the are winless at 0-8 and haven't been good recently. I'm not saying they are a good team, but they are better than their record. Owls have a mere 8-point loss to undefeated Baylor, only lost by 3 to Louisiana Tech and have been competitive in really all but a couple games against WF and Texas.
Marshall has been one of the most overvalued valued teams in the country. The Thundering Herd have a solid 5-3 SU record and are riding a 3-game winning streak, but are just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
Basically anytime Marshall is favored you want to look to the other side. Thundering Herd are 3-11 ATS last 2 seasons when giving points. They have also not covered a single spread in games played on Saturday (0-6) this season. Owls are 32-16 ATS last 48 at home in weeks 10 thru 13 and 6-2-1 ATS last 9 vs a team with a winning record. Take Rice!
|11-01-19||Spurs -6.5 v. Warriors||Top||127-110||Win||100||13 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA - Late Night PLAY OF THE MONTH on Spurs -6½ -108
I'm not sure how you pass up on the Spurs in this spot. I know San Antonio is playing on no rest after a hard fought loss against the Clippers last night, but the Warriors have looked awful to start the season and now must play without Steph Curry.
Golden State really doesn't have a guy they can go to at the point to fill the void left by Curry. Not to mention they were already lacking scoring outside of the former league MVP. Add in the awful defense they have played and I don't care who the Spurs send out there they should win here by double-digits no problem.
Warriors just 12-30-1 ATS last 43 at home. Spurs have covered 4 of the last 5 in the series and the favorite has covered 11 of the last 15 in the series. Take San Antonio!
|11-01-19||Bucks v. Magic +5||123-91||Loss||-115||9 h 55 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS ANNIHILATOR on Magic +5 -115
The books are begging you to take the Bucks here as a small road favorite against the Magic, especially with Milwaukee coming off that ugly loss to the Celtics where they blew a huge lead. I just don't trust this Bucks team on the road in this pot. Not only are they coming off a big game against Boston, they got the defending champs on their home court tomorrow.
Orlando is a sneaky good team and while they are just 2-2 to start, they haven't shot the ball well at all. Defensively they are better than people think. They have held 3 of their first 4 teams under 40% shooting. Magic are 8-3 ATS last 11 at home, while the Bucks are just 1-4 ATS last 5 on the road. Take Orlando!
|10-31-19||49ers -10 v. Cardinals||Top||28-25||Loss||-109||29 h 39 m||Show|
5* NFL - 49ers/Cardinals TNF ATS NO-BRAINER on 49ers -10 -109
Usually I wouldn't lay a big number like this on the road in a division matchup, but I just think the 49ers are going to win here easily. This San Francisco defensive front is unreal and are making it near impossible for opposing teams to throw on them. 49ers rank No. 1 in pass defense, giving up a ridiculous 128.7 ypg.
Arizona is down starting running back David Johnson and backup Chase Edmonds, which forced them to make a trade with the Dolphins for Kenyan Drake. I don't see the Cardinals being able to have the kind of success running the ball needed to keep this 49ers defense honest.
Last week the Cardinals had just 40 rushing yards and 197 passing yards against a good Saints defense. 49ers should score into the 20's here and easily win this game by 14-plus points. Take San Francisco!
|10-31-19||West Virginia +19 v. Baylor||14-17||Win||100||20 h 23 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - W Virginia/Baylor ATS ANNIHILATOR on West Virginia +19 -115
I feel like the price is right to back the Mountaineers in Thursday's game at Baylor. The Bears are ranked No. 12 and sitting at 7-0, but I'm not buying this being one of the 15 best teams in the country. Last time out Baylor won 45-27 at Oklahoma State, but they trailed by double-digits in the 2nd half.
West Virginia is a team the betting public wants nothing to do with, which is why we are getting such a great price with them in this one. I know the results don't look great, but the Mountaineers have hung around early in a lot of their games and have played a really tough schedule with 6 of 7 against Power 5 teams.
Mountaineers new head coach Neal Brown has got his team to thrive in this spot, going 11-2 ATS on the road vs a team with a winning record. Baylor is just 3-12-1 ATS last 16 vs a team with a losing record. Take West Virginia!
|10-31-19||Heat -6.5 v. Hawks||106-97||Win||100||9 h 2 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Heat -6½ -109
This is an easy play on the Heat. Miami just beat Atlanta 112-97 on Tuesday and they completely dominated after Trae Young went out with an ankle injury. I could see some talking themselves into betting the Hawks at home here, but I just feel that Young is too valuable to Atlanta's success.
I've also really liked what I've seen out of this Miami team. Keep in mind that game against the Hawks was the first time Jimmy Butler suited up for the Heat. He had 21 points. Miami's just got too much depth for Atlanta to keep it close. Take Miami!
|10-30-19||Clippers v. Jazz -2.5||96-110||Win||100||12 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA - Clippers/Jazz ATS NO-BRAINER on Jazz -2½ -105
This is just too good a price to pass up with Utah at home. The Jazz haven't really played great to start the year and yet are 3-1. I get the Clippers have looked great to start the year, but I think they are overvalued because of it. Last time they were on the road they lost by 8 at Phoenix and there's not many places tougher to play than Utah.
Jazz are 21-10 ATS last 31 off a non-cover and have covered 3 straight at home against the Clippers. I believe Utah's defense will be the deciding factor in this matchup. Jazz are allowing just 91.5 ppg and just 88.0 ppg at home. LA is giving up 112.5 ppg and 126.0 ppg on the road. Take Utah!
|10-30-19||Wolves v. 76ers -6.5||95-117||Win||100||9 h 5 m||Show|
4* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on 76ers -6½ -110
I got no problem laying this number at home with the 76ers. Philadelphia is coming off a couple of uninspiring wins over the Pistons and Hawks, but both of those were on the road. 76ers are not the same team on the road as they are at home. They were 31-10 at home last year compared to 20-21 on the road.
Philadelphia doesn't just win SU at home. They are 56-37 (60%) ATS at home the last 3 seasons. They are also a dominant 24-8 ATS last 32 at home against a team that's won more than 60% of their road games.
Timberwolves are 3-0 to start the season, but two of those wins are against Eastern Conference bottom feeders in Brooklyn and Charlotte. The other is a win at home against the Heat (without Jimmy Butler), where they trailed by 7 going into the 4th quarter. Minnesota just 3-7-1 ATS last 11 vs a team that's won more than 60% of their games and have failed to cover 5 straight against the 76ers. Give me Philadelphia!
|10-29-19||Hawks v. Heat -8||Top||97-112||Win||100||10 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA - Hawks/Heat Southeast GAME OF THE MONTH on Heat -8 -105
This line is begging you to take the Hawks and the public is taking the bait. I just don't think we are going to get the kind of effort needed from Atlanta to keep this close. Hawks are off a gut-wrenching 105-103 loss at home to the 76ers last night. A game the Hawks led by 9 after the 1st quarter and still had the lead going into the 4th quarter.
Another factor here is the schedule makes this one a little less enticing for the Hawks, as they will turn around and host Miami on Thursday. As for the Heat, they are off to an impressive 2-1 start that includes a 5-point win at Milwaukee. They did that without their prized new addition of Jimmy Butler, who will make his debut tonight. Heat's only home game was the season opener and they won by 19 over Memphis.
Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after allowing 105 or more in 2 straight are 95-51 (65%) ATS since 1996 when facing an opponent off a loss by 3 or fewer points. Take Miami!
|10-28-19||Thunder +10.5 v. Rockets||112-116||Win||100||10 h 32 m||Show|
3* NBA - No Doubt ATS BLOWOUT on Thunder +10½ -109
OKC is definitely worth a look here as a double-digit dog at Houston. Thunder avoided an 0-3 start with an emphatic 120-92 win at home over the Warriors, where they had a 42-point lead one point in the game. OKC also covered in a 5-point loss as a 9-point dog at Utah. No question they are going to be up for this one.
Houston has failed to cover each of their first two as they are simply being overvalued by the books to start the year. They were lucky to leave with a 126-123 win at home against the Pelicans on Saturday, a game they were favored by 12. Look for the Thunder to keep this much closer than the books anticipate. Take Oklahoma City!
|10-28-19||Magic +4.5 v. Raptors||Top||95-104||Loss||-105||10 h 35 m||Show|
5* NBA - Eastern Conf PLAY OF THE MONTH on Magic +4½ -105
Most are going to be tempted to take the Raptors here laying what looks like a short number at home against the Magic, who have failed to cover each of their first two games. I like Orlando quite a bit at this price.
What people are going to overlook with Toronto is them playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, all 3 at different venues. This is only the second game in the last 5 days for Orlando. Magic simply haven't shot the ball well in their first two games and are due for a few more shots to fall. Hard to see Toronto's defense being at it's best playing 3 in 4.
Road dogs who had a losing record the previous year and off a road loss are 37-12 ATS (76%) ATS last 5 seasons. Take Orlando!
|10-27-19||Packers -4 v. Chiefs||Top||31-24||Win||100||49 h 13 m||Show|
5* NFL - Vegas Insider PLAY OF THE YEAR on Packers -4 -105
No reason to overthink this one. This is too good a price to pass up with Green Bay given the circumstances. Kansas City will not have the reigning MVP in Patrick Mahomes and if you watched the offense last week with Matt Moore after Mahomes went down, it's night and day. I get we are seeing almost a 7-point swing with Mahomes out, but I feel he's worth more than that.
It's also not just Mahomes that the Chiefs are missing. They are unlikely to have star defensive tackle Chris Jones, corner Kendall Fuller and edge rusher Frank Clark. I get the defense played well against the Broncos, but Denver's offense is a complete mess with how bad Flacco is playing.
I don't see the Chiefs defense being able to slow down Aaron Rodgers on Sunday and I could see this getting out of hand early. It just feels like a throw away game for KC with Mahomes out. Take Green Bay!
|10-27-19||Blazers v. Mavs -2||Top||121-119||Loss||-109||9 h 59 m||Show|
5* NBA - Vegas NO LIMIT Top Play on Mavs -2 -109
The Mavs are definitely worth a look here as a slim home favorite against the Blazers. I think Dallas is even better than anticipated and the Mavs have started out 2-0. Portland on the other hand is a team that came into this season way overvalued after last year's trip to the Western Conference Finals.
Portland won last time out at Sacramento, but that's not saying much given how bad the Kings have looked to start the season. I just don't think this will be a very profitable team on the road, especially early on, as it will take some time for the books to adjust to how much worse off this year's team is.
Mavs are 6-1 ATS last 7 at home vs a team with a winning road record and the Blazers are a mere 2-8 ATS last 10 times they have played the Mavs on the road. Take Dallas!
|10-27-19||Raiders +7 v. Texans||24-27||Win||100||45 h 18 m||Show|
4* NFL - Undervalued DOG OF THE WEEK on Raiders +7 -115
The Raiders are definitely worth a look here at this price. Oakland's not a team that gets a lot of love to start with, while Houston is a pretty decent public play with how much the public likes Deshaun Watson. Add in the Raiders coming in off an ugly looking 42-24 loss to the Packers and I don't think there's any doubt this line is inflated.
However, a closer look at the box score shows the Raiders were a lot more competitive than that final against Green Bay. In fact, Oakland outgained the Packers 484 to 481. They had two times where they had 1st and goal and didn't score a point an another turnover in the redzone. Gruden has this team going in the right direction and I not only think they can cover, but win this game outright. Take Oakland!
|10-27-19||Browns +11.5 v. Patriots||13-27||Loss||-115||6 h 21 m||Show|
3* NFL - Undervalued DOG OF THE DAY on Browns +11½ -115
Cleveland is worth a look here as a double-digit dog against the Patriots. I just think we are seeing New England way overvalued coming off that dominating performance against the Jets, where they made Sam Darnold see ghosts.
Most just assume that Cleveland will have no shot of keeping this close, but I think they not only keep it within the number, I think they give NE a real scare here. Browns have a massive edge in rest, as they will be coming off their bye, while the Patriots are on a short week after playing on MNF.
Favorites of 10.5 or more that are outgaining opponents by 1.75 or more yards/pass attempt are just 15-39 (28%) ATS if off 2 straight games holding a team to 5.5 or fewer yards/pass attempts. Take Cleveland!
|10-26-19||Utah State +4.5 v. Air Force||Top||7-31||Loss||-111||104 h 59 m||Show|
5* NCAAF - Utah St/Air Force MWC GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State +4½ -111
I love the Aggies getting more than a field goal against the Falcons. Air Force's starting quarterback Donald Hammond is questionable to play and if he does suit up he might not be 100%. Regardless, I would have liked Utah State at this price.
Utah State is 4-2 with their only two losses at Wake Forest and at LSU and they probably should have beat the Demon Deacons (lost 35-38). Aggies got one of my favorite 'Group of 5' quarterbacks in Jordan Love and he should torch this Air Force defense that is allowing opposing QB's to complete 64% or more. Last year Love threw for 356 yards and 2 scores against the Aggies.
Utah State has covered 14 of their last 19 overall as the books just don't give them the credit they deserve. Air Force 0-6 ATS last 6 after covering 2 of their last 3 and 0-7 ATS last 7 after outrushing two straight opponents by 125 or more yards. Take Utah State!
|10-26-19||California +21.5 v. Utah||0-35||Loss||-110||106 h 15 m||Show|
3* NCAAF - Late Night BAILOUT WINNER on California +21½ -110
Easy play here on the Golden Bears catching more than 3 touchdowns against Utah. The most points Cal has allowed in any game this year is 24. If they allow that we simply need them to score 3 to cover.
We just saw Utah score only 21 at home against ASU. Cal's defense is better and we have seen them play some of their best football on the road as a dog. They won 20-19 as a 13-point dog at Washington and 28-20 as a 2.5-point dog at Ole Miss. They also covered as a 21-point dog at Oregon. Touching on that, no way should Utah be favored by more at home against Cal than the Ducks. Take California!
|10-26-19||Pelicans +11 v. Rockets||Top||123-126||Win||100||9 h 11 m||Show|
5* NBA - Southwest Division PLAY OF THE MONTH on Pelicans +11 -110
I absolutely love the value here with New Orleans as a double-digit dog against the Rockets. I think with the Pelicans off a hard fought loss last night, most will be looking to fade them in the second of a back-to-back against a Houston team looking to rebound from a loss to the Bucks in their season opener.
I just think there's enough talent with New Orleans, even without Zion, to keep this within single digits. Big thing here on no rest is the Pelicans are a very deep team. They had 10 guys play at least 14 minutes last night with no one playing more than 33.
Houston has a lot of star-power, especially with the 1-2 punch of Westbrook and Harden. It has a chance to be special, but it's going to take some time for the chemistry to form. Thus making the Rockets a team to fade early on, especially when they are big favorites like this. Take New Orleans!
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