Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Detroit Pistons +1
Ben Simmons is doubtful tonight for the Philadelphia 76ers. He is nursing a back injury that forced him out of Saturday’s game, and it’s likely that the 76ers will decide to rest him tonight. He is the engine that makes the 76ers run.
And it’s not like the 76ers have been impressive during their 2-1 start this season. They lost by 18 on the road to the Celtics in their only road game. Their two home wins came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Bills and Magic, and they only beat the Magic 116-115 as 12.5-point favorites.
The Pistons have opened 2-0 this season and have one of the most underrated head coaches in Dwane Casey. He certainly knew how to get it done in the regular season when he was with the Raptors. His only problem was not being able to get past Lebron James in the playoffs, which has also been a problem for everyone else in the East, too.
The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. They have had one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA over the past few seasons. Bet the Pistons Tuesday.
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1* Free Pick on Kings/Nuggets OVER 227
We should have zero problem here cashing the OVER in tonight's NBA matchup between the Kings and Nuggets. Scoring is way up this year, as everyone is trying to play with pace. No team has been playing at a faster tempo than the Kings, who lead the league in pace at 111.4.
Sacramento games have been ridiculously high-scoring up to this point. The Kings have played 3 games and all 3 have seen at least 140 points. The only reason this total is in the 230s is because Denver comes in allowing just 95.7 ppg and have yet to allow a team to eclipse the 100-point mark.
That's certainly impressive, but also something I don't think the Nuggets are going to be able to continue to do as we move forward. I certainly don't see them being 100% locked in defensively in a huge letdown spot after their big upset home win over the Warriors on Sunday and a big showdown with LeBron James and the Lakers in LA on Thursday.
OVER is 17-4 in the Nuggets last 21 vs a team that is allowing 110 or more points/game and 24-7 in the Kings last 31 road games vs a top tier team that's outscoring opponents by 9+ points/game. Take the OVER!
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Columbus Blue Jackets ML
This line has moved a lot against Columbus here and despite the juice, this one is worthy of a smaller play. Columbus has been up and down through their first 7 games, but this offense has found a lot of success. Averaging 3.29 goals per game, it's been a lot of different guys who have stepped up for this team to find the back of the net.
They take on a struggling Coyotes team that they have dominated as of late. Columbus has won 6 straight in this series as they've simply been able to dominate both sides of the puck. That certainly will play in the back of the Coyotes' minds here as well as how bad they've been thus far.
Arizona has averaged only 1.43 goals per game through their first 7 here in 2018. They have zero confidence right now and are worth fading still given their struggles.
Lay the price here. Back Columbus.
Good Luck, Razor Ray.
Tuesday 5* NHL FREE Play
2 HUGE winners posted for Super Tuesday! (NHL and World Series Game 1) Razor Ray is a TOP 5 capper on the network backed by a MA$$IVE October run. He is 44-23 (66 %) +1992 this month. He went 10-1 on the weekend and is moving up ALL leaderboards! Longterm Ray is 342-287 (54 %) +3804 in 2018 and that puts him in the top 15 on the OVERALL capper leaderboard out of 80+ cappers! 62-43 59% +1509 run in CFB, 29-18 62% +1071 in MLB, 58-38 60% +2044 in NHL, and 131-103 56% +1810 in NFL.
Play - Virginia Tech (Game 112).
Edges - Hokies: 5-1 ATS weekdays; and 4-1 ATS with rest … Yellow Jackets: 0-5-1 ATS in first of consecutive away games … and head coach Paul Johnson 3-9 ATS away when coming off a SU favorite loss … With that we recommend a 1* play on Virginia Tech. Thank you and good luck as always.
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Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #170 San Jose State Spartans over UNLV Rebels (6:30p.m., Saturday, October 27 ATTSN) The Spartans are winless on the season, but they are facing another hopeless team in UNLV at home on Saturday. The Rebels have lost four straight games and only Utah State is a decent team that beat them. San Jose State put forth a solid effort last week against San Diego State losing by just three points on the road. Expect them to carry that over into this Saturday with another strong defensive performance against another team with very little offense. UNLV is without their starting quarterback in Armani Rogers and they have become easy to defend. The Rebels are 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games against teams with a losing home record. SJSU has covered 5 of the last 6 games against UNLV. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports Weekend football card! 9 of 11 winning weeks and back to back conference Game of the Year B-L-O-W-O-U-T winners. Jump on board our remainder of the season package now and let 47 years of handicapping experience work for you.
MLB TREND OF THE DAY: Since 2004, in the playoffs, a hot team off of 2+ straight wins in their last 3 games is 243-197 55.2% +50.57 units SU +9.1% roi when facing a cold team off of 2 or fewer wins in their last 3 games. (Take the Red Sox)
This is a Free #NCAAF play on the Washington Huskies.
The Huskies ran for 201 yards on 40 carries without star running back Myles Gaskins in a 27-13 home win over Colorado last week. They will play on the road this week, but against an inferior Cal team. The Bears have lost three of their four games against PAC12 teams, including double digit home losses to Oregon and UCLA. The Huskies should get Gaskin back this weekend, and that's not good news for the Bears. He scored two TDs in a 38-7 rout over California last year. Washington has won four straight at Berkley, and their last two wins at Cal were by a combined 63 points. The Bears have failed to cover the spread in all four of their home games this season. I like Washington to win big and run up the score here in this game.
St Etienne -125
The free soccer play takes place in France.
St Etienne 2
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The Montreal Canadians are 3-1-0 at home on the season and I like the price we get on the Habs here against the Calgary Flames Tuesday night.
Calgary was rather lucky to post a 4-1 win at NY Rangers its last time out, winning despite getting outshot 45-26. The Flames are 1-7 in their last eight road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and lost 3-2 here at Bell Centre last December.
Montreal had won three straight before losing 4-3 in overtime Saturday to the Ottawa Senators. "You have to learn from losses," Canadiens forward Brendan Gallagher told the press after practice Monday. "You learn more from a loss than you do from a win. We made some mistakes. We understand the errors we made. After our previous losses, we've done a pretty good job of responding. ... Now we have to react the appropriate way, come back strong with a good effort and learn how to play in those situations."
Good spot for the Habs to bounce back.
Free pick on Montreal Canadiens.
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My free play is on the NO Pelicans at 8:05 ET.
The New Orleans Pelicans scored 131 points in their season-opening 19-point win over the Rockets last Wednesday in Houston and then followed up with a franchise-record 149 points in a home rout of the Sacramento Kings on Friday. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers are 2-1 after a season-opening three-game homestand in which they lost to the Nuggets but then beat the Thunder (108-92 on Fri) and the Rockets (115-122 on Sun). With tonight's game in New Orleans, the Clippers begin a stretch in which six of their next eight games will be on the road.
Rookie guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky) has shown signs that he's ready to contribute right now, as he reached double digits twice while averaging 8.3 points during the homestand. On the flip side, fellow guard Avery Bradley has totaled just 15 points in the three games, shooting only 7-for-23 (30.4 percent) overall and 1-for-8 (12.5 percent) on three-pointers. However, Bradley has been a big factor defensively, helping the Clippers limit high-powered opposing guards Jamal Murray, Dennis Schroder and James Harden to a combined 16-for-53 shooting (30.2 percent).
The question you now start to hear in New Orleans is, "Who needs Boogie Cousins?" The Pelicans knew they could count on A.D. (28.5-13.0-7.0) but the 6-10 Nikola Mirotic is averaging 33.0 & 9.5! That duo has led New Orleans to win its first two games by an average of 19.5 PPG. "We've been just playing fast, sharing the ball, playing very unselfish," Mirotic told reporters. "I think we're going to be big trouble for the rest of the teams." A nice surprise has been guard Elfrid Payton, a free-agent signing who made his Pelicans debut with a triple-double at Houston. Then there is Julius Randle, who is averaging 19 points and 11 rebounds in his first two games since being signed as a free agent in the offseason.
Mirotic just may be right when he said, "I think we're going to be big trouble for the rest of the teams." The Pelicans went 3-1 against the Clippers last season, shooting 47.1 percent. This year's team looks better than last year's plus the Clippers are a team looking for an identity. They won't fine it here, in their first road game of the new season. Lay the points.
10* FREE MLB PICK (Dodgers +142)
I'll take my chances here with the Dodgers to go on the road and steal Game 1 against the Red Sox. I just think the price here is too good to pass up on LA with Clayton Kershaw on the mound. Kershaw had a rough outing early in the NLCS against Milwaukee, but bounced back with a dominant showing in Game 5 and came in and closed the door in the 9th of Game 7. This is Kershaw's first ever start against the Red Sox and I think that's a big advantage for him. You also have the Dodgers' offense getting an extra hitter in the lineup with the DH. Chris Sale has not been great in the postseason and I look for his struggles to continue in Game 1. Give me the Dodgers +142!
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ASA PLAY ON Free Pick Arizona Coyotes Money Line (+) over Columbus Blue Jackets, Tuesday @ 7:05 PM ET
You know Coyotes head coach Rick Tocchet has some extra motivation here. Arizona lost both games by a single goal to John Tortorella's Blue Jackets last season despite the fact that the Coyotes outshot Columbus in each game. Keep in mind, Tocchet was a long-time Flyer as a player while Tortorella spent a number of years coaching in the Rangers organization. Rangers are one of the Flyers biggest rivals. An even bigger "tie-in" to the hunger factor here for Tocchet is that he replaced Tortorella as head coach in Tampa Bay. The point is that this game certainly has extra meaning and we love the extra underdog value being offered here. The Coyotes are off a 5-3 loss at Winnipeg but previously had allowed an average of only 2 goals per game in their 6 prior games. The Blue Jackets have lost 2 of their last 3 games and are allowing an average of 4.8 goals per game in their last 4 games. The Coyotes are absolutely worth a look as a big dog tonight. Free Pick: Arizona on the money line (+) in early evening action Tuesday.
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Troy @ South Alabama 8:00 ET
Play On: Troy -12.5
Troy is coming off a 22-16 upset loss as a 10.5-point road favorite against Liberty in their previous game. The defeat dropped their season record to 5-2 (.714). Troy will be out to revenge last year’s 19-8 upset loss to South Alabama in a game they closed as a sizable 19.0-point home favorite.
South Alabama is coming off a 45-7 blowout win over an Alabama State team that plays at the FCS level. Their only other win this season came against Texas State who has gone 0-6 this year versus FBS teams.
Any college football double-digit away favorite that’s playing before Game 9 of their season who is coming off an away favorite of 3.0 or greater straight up loss by 9 points or less, and they possess a win percentage of .833 or worse, versus an opponent (South Alabama) that scored 9 points or more in their previous game, resulted in those away favorites going 23-0 ATS since 1987. Bet on Troy minus the points for my Tuesday 10/23 free pick.