Jack’s Free Pick Tuesday: Detroit Pistons +1
Ben Simmons is doubtful tonight for the Philadelphia 76ers. He is nursing a back injury that forced him out of Saturday’s game, and it’s likely that the 76ers will decide to rest him tonight. He is the engine that makes the 76ers run.
And it’s not like the 76ers have been impressive during their 2-1 start this season. They lost by 18 on the road to the Celtics in their only road game. Their two home wins came against two of the worst teams in the NBA in the Bills and Magic, and they only beat the Magic 116-115 as 12.5-point favorites.
The Pistons have opened 2-0 this season and have one of the most underrated head coaches in Dwane Casey. He certainly knew how to get it done in the regular season when he was with the Raptors. His only problem was not being able to get past Lebron James in the playoffs, which has also been a problem for everyone else in the East, too.
The 76ers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games. The Pistons are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record. They have had one of the more underrated home-court advantages in the NBA over the past few seasons. Bet the Pistons Tuesday.
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My free play is on the NO Pelicans at 8:05 ET.
The New Orleans Pelicans scored 131 points in their season-opening 19-point win over the Rockets last Wednesday in Houston and then followed up with a franchise-record 149 points in a home rout of the Sacramento Kings on Friday. Meanwhile, the LA Clippers are 2-1 after a season-opening three-game homestand in which they lost to the Nuggets but then beat the Thunder (108-92 on Fri) and the Rockets (115-122 on Sun). With tonight's game in New Orleans, the Clippers begin a stretch in which six of their next eight games will be on the road.
Rookie guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Kentucky) has shown signs that he's ready to contribute right now, as he reached double digits twice while averaging 8.3 points during the homestand. On the flip side, fellow guard Avery Bradley has totaled just 15 points in the three games, shooting only 7-for-23 (30.4 percent) overall and 1-for-8 (12.5 percent) on three-pointers. However, Bradley has been a big factor defensively, helping the Clippers limit high-powered opposing guards Jamal Murray, Dennis Schroder and James Harden to a combined 16-for-53 shooting (30.2 percent).
The question you now start to hear in New Orleans is, "Who needs Boogie Cousins?" The Pelicans knew they could count on A.D. (28.5-13.0-7.0) but the 6-10 Nikola Mirotic is averaging 33.0 & 9.5! That duo has led New Orleans to win its first two games by an average of 19.5 PPG. "We've been just playing fast, sharing the ball, playing very unselfish," Mirotic told reporters. "I think we're going to be big trouble for the rest of the teams." A nice surprise has been guard Elfrid Payton, a free-agent signing who made his Pelicans debut with a triple-double at Houston. Then there is Julius Randle, who is averaging 19 points and 11 rebounds in his first two games since being signed as a free agent in the offseason.
Mirotic just may be right when he said, "I think we're going to be big trouble for the rest of the teams." The Pelicans went 3-1 against the Clippers last season, shooting 47.1 percent. This year's team looks better than last year's plus the Clippers are a team looking for an identity. They won't fine it here, in their first road game of the new season. Lay the points.
1* Free Pick on Kings/Nuggets OVER 227
We should have zero problem here cashing the OVER in tonight's NBA matchup between the Kings and Nuggets. Scoring is way up this year, as everyone is trying to play with pace. No team has been playing at a faster tempo than the Kings, who lead the league in pace at 111.4.
Sacramento games have been ridiculously high-scoring up to this point. The Kings have played 3 games and all 3 have seen at least 140 points. The only reason this total is in the 230s is because Denver comes in allowing just 95.7 ppg and have yet to allow a team to eclipse the 100-point mark.
That's certainly impressive, but also something I don't think the Nuggets are going to be able to continue to do as we move forward. I certainly don't see them being 100% locked in defensively in a huge letdown spot after their big upset home win over the Warriors on Sunday and a big showdown with LeBron James and the Lakers in LA on Thursday.
OVER is 17-4 in the Nuggets last 21 vs a team that is allowing 110 or more points/game and 24-7 in the Kings last 31 road games vs a top tier team that's outscoring opponents by 9+ points/game. Take the OVER!
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