Last weekend, the weekend of September 21st through September 25th, will go down as one of the most profitable in Nevada Sports Book history. Not only did the house win almost every major decision on Saturday, dogs went 11-5 for the week in the NFL including the Steelers and Broncos losing straight up by a touchdown or more killing just about every live parlay and teaser ticket on the board. Dogs of more than a FG were a perfect 7-0. Holds of 16-20% were reported at some properties, three times the standard 5-6% hold that normally defines a successful week.
The Bears are still years away from contending for a playoff spot but they are improving the overall talent on their roster and is a team that plays hard for HC John Fox. Chicago has found two excellent backs in Josh Howard and Tarik Howard and an established rushing attack will make Mitch Trubisky’s transition all the more smother when Fox decides to make the move and insert the No.2 overall pick in last year’s draft. The Bears are 6-1 in their L7 as a home dog and a perfect 5-0 when getting more than a field goal. Last week they beat a preoccupied Steelers outfit but you could also make the argument that they should have beat the Falcons in Week I.
A common mistake of most recreational sports bettors is to put too much importance in the last game they watched. Case in point, the Denver Broncos Week Two demolition of the Dallas Cowboys. The Broncos completely shut down the Cowboys offense, dominating both sides of the line of scrimmage, holding Ezekial Elliot to a career-low eight yards on nine carries and forcing two Dak Prescott picks. It was a different story in Buffalo where the Bills front seven limited C.J. Anderson to just 36 yards on eight carries and forced Simian into two decisions that both wound up as interceptions. Full disclosure is that the Broncos were one of my top plays for many reason’s not included here but never-in-doubt loser all the same.
The books biggest decision of the week came on the Sunday night game when Washington skinned the Raiders 27-10. Despite taking a lot of money on the Raiders during the week, most books kept the number at Oakland -3 and moving the money to as high as -130 in certain houses. Just as the clock struck 4:00 PM EST and 1:00 PM PST, the books went to Oakland -3.5 and charging between 40 and 60 cents to buy the number back down to three. In the end, none of it mattered as Derek Carr threw a pick on the first play of the game, Cousins responded by driving the field for a 7-0 lead and that was all that she wrote as the Raiders could muster just 47 total yards in the first half, gave up five sacks and went 0-11 on third down for the game.